FanDuel Contest: $3000 Friday Tournament

Every Friday at BaseballGuys.com, I relay to you how you can sign up for a daily fantasy baseball game courtesy of FanDuel.com. Today is no different. I’ll spend a bit of time detailing how you can win some cash, and then I’ll give away all my secrets by letting you know who should, or shouldn’t, be in your lineup. Oh, and finally, I’m also going to be in the league, so you will get a shot to take down the obnoxious Ray Flowers.

* NOTE: This information about who to play on Friday is clearly something those of you in standard roto leagues should be looking at as well. Guys like Buster Posey and Dustin Pedroia may not be guys you want in your lineup Friday.

$3000 Friday Fantasy Baseball Tournament

You got $10 laying around? Do you want to spend it on a hot dog and beer? Sure you could do that, but in 15 minutes it would be gone. Well, until the hot dog starts repeating on you in about an hour an a half that is. Why not take that $10 and try to win part of the $3000 cash prize given away by FanDuel.com? Here’s what you do.

Sign up using this link.

Select your salary cap roster by 7 PM EDT, Friday.

Watch the games tonight. Pick up your cash (there are 37 spots that pay out… and even the 37th finisher doubles their initial investment).

So sign up, enjoy the night of games, and then win some cash. Maybe you’ll be able to buy a hot dog and a case of beer for your next Friday night.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup for your chance to become a very rich person courtesy of FanDuel.com.

By Ray Flowers

Draft Day Challenge, April 11

Daily baseball is all the rage in the fantasy sports world, so I will be covering the game a couple of times a week here at BaseballGuys.com. To that end, I’ve partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out. With that, here are some of the better plays for Tuesday, April 11th.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

CATCHERS
1. Matt Wieters
2. Tyler Flowers

Wieters is only 1-for-12 against Alfredo Aceves in his career, a bad looking matchup on the surface. However he has hit .292 in 233 at-bats against the Red Sox, and 12 at-bats isn’t a huge amount to draw on.

Flowers faces Dan Haren, he of the 32 homers allowed in his last 31 starts. Flowers has 20+ homer power and has two bombs in 22 at-bats this season. He has gone 10 at-bats without a hit though.

FIRST BASE
1. Brandon Moss
2. Kendrys Morales

Moss has two homers and nine RBIs the past two days, and he’s also registered 10 hits in his last 17 at-bats (.588). Doesn’t matter who is on the hill right now (it’s Jason Vargas who he has one hit in three at-bats against).

Morales has nine hits in his last 20 at-bats including three doubles and a home run as he has knocked in five runs. He faces Justin Grimm, he of the 14 career big league innings during which time he has allowed 14 runs.

SECOND BASE
1. Jeff Keppinger
2. Dustin Pedroia

Keppinger will be facing the struggling Dan Haren whom he has eight hits against in 16 career ABs including a big fly.

You can pretty much always go with Pedroia, but this is a solid matchup. He’s hit .364 against Chris Tillman in 11 at-bats. He’s currently hitting .323. The last three years he has hit .303 at Fenway. Lock and load.

THIRD BASE
1. Manny Machado
2. Alberto Callaspo

Manny hit a game winning home run Wednesday, and though he’s struggled this season he has hit a bit better versus righties than lefties (1-for-9 vs. lefties). Machado faces spot starter Alfred Aceves Thursday.

Callaspo has hit .283 against righties the past three years. He’s got five hits in 11 at-bats against righties this season. He faces righty A.J. Griffin Thursday.

SHORTSTOP
1. Elvis Andrus
2. Alexei Ramirez

Andrus has produced 16 hits in 51 at-bats against King Felix, a .314 batting average. He’s also driven in eight runs in the matchup. Maybe the matchup will help him out of his current slump (four hits in 21 at-bats).

Ramirez faces a struggling Dan Haren who has he two hits in eight at-bats against. Is that enough of a reason to start the consistently solid Ramirez?

OUTFIELD
1. Coco Crisp
2. David Murphy

Crisp is hitting .364 with a homer in 33 at-bats against Jason Vargas. He’s also hitting .444 with four homers, four doubles, and six RBIs the last seven days.

Murphy has a whopping 63 at-bats against Felix Hernandez in his career, and he’s dong very well despite 15 Ks. When he isn’t whiffing he’s pounding out hits as evidenced by his .302 average, two homers and 10 RBIs.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. A.J. Griffin
2. Jason Marquis
3. Zack Greinke
4. Dylan Axelrod

Griffin had a 2.90 ERA on the road last season and he get’s to take on an Angels club, in Anaheim. The A’s have also scored 18 runs in their last two games as their offense is humming giving you a warm feeling about Griffin getting plenty of run support.

Marquis has held current Dodgers batters to a .242 average and two homers over 128 at-bats (Matt Kemp is only 2-for-17 off Jason in his career). Marquis is also 6-4 with a 2.64 ERA in 14 career starts against the Dodgers.

Greinke has held the Padres to a .250 batting average in 48 at-bats. The Padres only have one player with 20 at-bats that is hitting .270. They also have only three homers in 264 at-bats. Greinke also looked sharp in his first outing (0 ER in 6.1 IP).

Axelrod… hey, there aren’t that many options to turn to with a lot of early games. The Nats are 6-2 on the year and they are a solid offense, so this is more likely a shot in the dark you should avoid, than solid advice. At least I’m honest.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries & Accusations

The 2013 major league baseball season is about to begin, so now is a great time to touch on two topics that are in the news on a daily basis – injured players and those that might be guilty of PED use.

WORKING WITH THE INJURY BUG

Corey Hart. Curtis Granderson. Mark Teixeira. Chase Headley. Hanley Ramirez.

All those players have significant injury concerns that will cost them one, possibly two months of the season (maybe even more in the case of Tex). The general reaction is to run away from those players immediately and not even bother looking at them on draft day. Is that the right way to look at this situation? Let’s use the case of HanRam.

Hanley was injured while playing third base in the World Baseball Classic (another reason to get rid of the event?). He tore a ligament in his right thumb and will be out of action two months as he needs surgery. Gone are his chances at being a top-25 player this season as he will miss a third of the season. So we just forget about him, right? Not so fast. Follow me here.

HanRam will likely be able to play 2/3 of the season this year. Let’s assume last year’s numbers are his baseline. Ramirez hit .257 with 24 homers, 92 RBIs, 79 runs scored and 21 steals, numbers by the way that are his worst in a full season at any point in his career. He played 157 games last season. Let’s say he plays 105 games at that level this season. If he were to do that here would be his fantasy line: .257-16-62-53-14. Those numbers still wouldn’t be awful for a shortstop if you were in a 12 or 15 team league, and they would certainly be solid for a middle infield option. But remember this salient point – while Hanley is out of action you will have an open spot in your lineup to fill. Let’s say that you roster Alexei Ramirez who you plan on starting until Ramirez returns. Let’s say that Ramirez plays 50 games for you while Hanley is shelved. Per 162 games in his career Ramirez has gone .276-17-77-77-14. How does that pro-rate over 50 games? Take a look: five homers, 24 runs, 24 RBIs, four steals

Let’s put the two players together.

HanRam (105 games): .257-16-62-53-14
Alexei (50 games): .276-5-24-24-4
TOTAL: .263-21-86-77-18

* The batting average is the .257 average of HanRam from last season and the .276 career average of Alexei giving 105 games to Hanley and 50 to Ramirez which equates to 156 hits in 594 at-bats.

That’s darn near a 20-90-80-20 effort.

Make sure you don’t discount players too quickly just cause they are injured. You still might be able to get strong numbers from a position if you are smart about what you pay for the assets that will fill those spots.

ACCUSATIONS – SHOULD THEY CHANGE YOUR OPINION?

I don’t know who will break the law tonight.

I don’t know who broke the law in the past.

I don’t know who is cheating or has cheated.

Neither do you.

I bring this up cause I get the question every single day, multiple times, about when to take Ryan Braun. My response is always the same, even if it’s misguided – he’s the #1 guy on my board. ‘But Ray, didn’t you read Jeff Passan’s piece about how major league baseball is targeting Braun in what seems to be a very aggressive and over the top manner?’ Of course I read the article. I wouldn’t have linked to it otherwise, and it does disturb me that MLB appears to be on a witch hunt to get Braun. But for now I’m not going to draft based on fear. I KNOW there are players in the majors right now who are cheating. You know it too. The problem is we don’t know who those players are. Do you pass on drafting a guy who gained 12 lbs of muscle over the winter? Do you pass on a guy because some vague/unsubstantiated rumor suggests that there is a possibility that something may have happened in the past? You certainly can choose to do that. However, as I led off this section with, none of us knows what is going on behind closed doors.

Maybe a guy is doing recreational drugs.
Maybe he boozes too much.
Maybe he beats his wife.
Maybe he’s going through a painful divorce.
Maybe his child is sick.
Maybe his parent died.
Maybe he’s got an illness that he’s hiding.

On, and on, and on…

The point is, playing the “what if” game gets us nowhere. We all have to admit that every player, every single one of them, comes with risk. If you feel Braun is too much of a risk because of the PED cloud, then pass on him. Realize though that Miguel Cabrera has an alcohol problem. Mike Trout can’t repeat what he did last year and has one season of big league experience. Robinson Cano is without Alex Rodriguez, Curtis Granderson and Mark Teixeira. Matt Kemp & Joey Votto are coming off surgery… they all have issues folks.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Josh Rutledge

When is 277 at-bats enough to determine the value of a player? If you have followed my work for any appreciable amount of time you will know that I’m a big fan of sample sizes. By that I mean we need to have enough data at our fingertips to be able to adequately assess a player’s outlook. For me, 277 at-bats, a half season of work, isn’t nearly enough to paint a fully developed picture of what is going on with a player. For others though it seems like 277 at-bats is plenty. Take the Curious Case of Josh Rutledge…

A third round selection in the 2010 MLB Entry Draft, Rutledge played his college ball at the University of Alabama. He appeared in 11 games at Low-A ball in 2010, then 113 at High-A in 2011 before appearing in 87 games at Double-A before he received his call up last season due to the injury to Troy Tulowitzki. That means Rutledge has 211 games and 855 at-bats of minor league experience on his resume, and just 87 games worth above A-ball. Normally I would be telling people they are crazy if they think that’s enough work for a guy in the minor leagues cause it ain’t much. In those less than 950 plate appearances Rutledge hit .320 with a .374 OBP and .496 SLG. Those numbers play in any league of course. He also had 22 homers, 110 RBIs, 154 runs scored and 31 steals. To say he was a dynamic performer is an understatement. Remember though, only 356 at-bats above A-Ball.

When he was called up last year by the Rockies Rutledge hit .274 with a .306 OBP and .469 SLG. The fact that his numbers regressed from the minor leagues is totally normal. While the SLG was impressive for a middle infielder, there are some concerns with the other two numbers. Admitting that 277 at-bats is nowhere near enough to make a definitive call on anyone, I’m going to be even more obnoxious and shrink things down even further by looking at his season by month.

July: .381/.394/683 (63 ABs)
August: .317/.333/.598 (82 ABs)
September: .209/.266/.304 (115 ABs)
October: .118/.118/.176 (17 ABs)

I know the same size is extremely small but each month his AVG, OBP and SLG went down.

There is also this; Rutledge hit .247 with a .279 OBP in 81 at-bats against lefties.

Piling on.

Rutledge only took nine walks in 291 plate appearances. Nine. That’s atrocious. He also struck out 54 times leaving him with a simply pathetic 0.17 BB/K mark, well under 60 percent off the big league average. Ugh is right.

Though he went deep eight time in those 277 at-bats, Rutledge hit a total of one home run over his last 37 games. He also had a 31 percent fly ball rate, some four percent below the big league average, and that doesn’t exactly paint him as a big time home run threat despite the suggestion that his hot start last year has put into folks minds.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

To review.

Rutledge has one season of experience above Single-A ball.

His performance at the big league level tailed off dramatically as the season wore on.

He’s not likely to be a 20 homer threat even with a full season of at-bats.

It’s unclear if he can improve upon his .274 batting average from last season given his terrible plate discipline and struggles versus lefties.

Now you know the negative. Now a few big positives.

(1) He will play half his games in Coors Field.

(2) He will enter the year qualified at shortstop after appearing in 57 games there last season. With Tulowitzki back Rutledge will be the Rockies’ second baseman giving him strong positional flexibility.

(3) Though he may not be a 20 homer threat, 15 big flies seems doable. Also, he possesses speed. Josh was 7-for-7 last year in steal attempts with the Rockies, and he swiped 14 bases in Double-A before he was called up. The end result being that Rutledge has a shot at a 15/15 season from either the shortstop or second base position in fantasy.

It seems to me that there are more concerns than outright pluses here, but I appear to be in the minority. I’m a fan of Rutledge, don’t get me wrong, but I think his current ADP of 10th at the shortstop position is totally bonkers. People love youngster and the possibility they bring, but I just can’t understand why anyone would take Rutledge ahead of a guy like Alexei Ramirez who has been a solid big league hitter for five years (their ADP has them being take about 35 spots apart). Maybe Rutledge lives up to expectations this year and has that 15/15 season with a ton of runs scored with the Rockies, but I’d prefer a guy with 2,800 big league at-bats like Ramirez over a guy who doesn’t even have 280 at the big league level, especially when that youngster failed miserably for half the time he was in the big leagues (don’t forget that over his final 32 games last season that Rutledge hit .197 with one home run, 10 RBIs and two steals). It’s amazing to me, always has been, at how people are so willing to take a shot on something new and flashy while totally discounting something that is a bit worn in.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Shortstop

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

2012 SHORTSTOP Top-10

1 Troy Tulowitzki
2 Jose Reyes
3 Hanley Ramirez
4 Elvis Andrus
5 Starlin Castro
6 Jimmy Rollins
7 Derek Jeter
8 Alexei Ramirez
9 Asdrubal Cabrera
10 Yunel Escobar

Tulowitzki appeared in 47 games, his first season of less than 101 in six years. Over the previous five seasons he average 134 games a campaign, meaning he has averaged missing a month a season before 2012. The production is amazing, but the risk simply too high to overlook.

Reyes came on in the second half and as a result his first season in Miami was right where it should have been as he posted a fantasy line of .287-11-57-86-40. Note the last time he stole 50 bases was 2008.

Ramirez hit 24 homers with 92 RBIs, 79 runs scored and 21 runs. Given that he also qualified at third base he was a strong play in 2012. Still, what happened to the perennial .300 hitter? Over his last 942 at-bats he has hit .252 with a poor .326 OBP (he batted .319 from 2007-10).

Andrus scored 85 runs for the third straight year while reaching career bests in doubles (31), triples (nine), RBIs (62), batting average (.286), OBP (.349) and SLG (.378). The only downer was a four year low of 21 steals, this after 3-straight seasons of at least 32 thefts.

Castro is just 22 years old, and he’s has been an impressive performer in his young career hitting .297. He’s also stolen 22 and 25 bases the past two years while scoring an average of 85 runs the past two campaigns. He also saw his homers (14) and RBIs (78) reach career bests in his third season. The guy’s attitude still makes me all kind of nervous though.

Rollins went 20/20 this year… from June 1st to the end of the season. That might be the most amazing number you will read in any of the position reviews. On the season he had 23 homers, 30 steals, 102 runs scored and 68 RBIs in yet another “Rollins-like” effort.

Jeter was just about used up according to most. At least I didn’t think that. Jeter went out and had 216 hits, the most in baseball, as he scored 99 times, hit 15 homers and knocked in 58 runners. He stole only nine bases, his first season of single digits ever, but he was once again an elite at the position.

Ramirez is as steady as pretty much any player in the game. He’s not elite at anything unfortunately, but always productive. He stole a career best 20 bases while driving in 73 runners, the second best mark of his career. However, he also hit only .265 with nine homers and 59 runs scored. At least he didn’t kill you.

From Cabrera’s Player Profile before the season. “Cabrera will steal double-digit bags, and his batting average will surpass the big league average… but in my opinion it would be foolish to bank on Cabrera matching his homer, RBI or SLG marks in 2012.” Cabrera hit .270, just three points off 2011, and he fell one bag short of my prediction with nine thefts. However, his HR total fell from 25 to 16, his RBI total from 92 to 68 and his SLG mark from .460 to .423.

Escobar hit .288-10-60-71 in 2008. In 2009 he went .299-14-76-89. In 2010 he dipped to .256-4-35-60. In 2011 he rebounded and hit .290-11-48-77. What did he do in 2012? Totally unexpected he reverted to his 2010 form with an awful season (.253-9-51-58).

Hit: Derek Jeter

Miss: Yunel Escobar, Ian Desmond (#16)
I knew Diamond could be something, but I had no idea he would be an absolute monster as one of the elites at the position (.292-25-73-72-21).

By Ray Flowers

Movies, TV, Hotties & Baseball

I had an odd weekend. There was less booze than I anticipated. There was less fun than I anticipated. There was about the level of worry on Sunday for fantasy football as I expected (I’m in too many leagues to worry about certain plays or players in Week 1). There was a great novel (The Bourne Supremacy by Robert Ludlum, who by the way was one hell of an author. If you’ve seen the movies with Matt Damon it’s still worth your time to read Ludlum’s three novels as they have little to do, in plot at least, with the Hollywood films). At least there was plenty going on in the world of baseball to hold my attention.

Curtis Granderson has socked 35 homers for the Yankees this year on his way to 86 RBIs and a .235 batting average after his five RBI effort Sunday (he’s also scored 85 times). Still, he’s looked an awful lot like Adam Dunn with his all or nothing approach. Over his last 53 games, that’s a third of a season, Granderson has hit .213 (Dunn is hitting .208 on the year for the White Sox with 38 homers, 88 RBIs and 79 runs scored). The counting stats are great, but that’s an awfully high price to pay in the batting average category.

Nick Markakis will have surgery on his broken left thumb Tuesday. The Orioles are hopeful that they will make the playoffs and hang around long enough for us to see Markakis again this season. Don’t count on that happening. Regardless, Nick’s regular season is over. Thanks to hitting .335 with a .390 OBP over his last 54 games Markakis will end the year with a .298 average and .363 OBP, numbers nearly identical to his career marks (.295 and .365). He’s not an elite fantasy option, but he’s solid an about as consistent as they come.

I watched The Change Up this past week, a stupid film in which Jason Bateman and Ryan Reynolds party, pee in a fountain while drunk, and miraculously change bodies (apparently the fact that they made a “wish” while urinating in the fountain caused the goddess statue in the fountain to grant them their drunk wish – to live the others life. I told you it was a stupid movie). Why the hell would I bring this clunker up? Olivia Wilde. She is, simply put, gorgeous. If you look into those eyes and don’t feel a tingle, you aren’t a lover of women.

Mike Napoli is ready to rock as his quadriceps muscle is finally strong enough for him to go out and perform in game action. He’ll begin his rehab assignment at Double-A Frisco Tuesday. A big time disappointment after being a top-3 catcher selection in nearly every league this year, Napoli has hit just .233 with 17 homers and 40 RBIs this season, light year from the pace that saw him net a .320 average, 30 homers, and 75 RBIs in 2011. Still, Let’s compare his 2010 effort in 453 at-bats, to the pace that his effort this season would net him in 453 at-bats (he actually has 301 this season).

2010: .238-26-68-60 with a .784 OPS
2012: .223-26-60- 68 with a .771 OPS

I don’t see any difference at all there, do you?

Alexei Ramirez was scratched from the White Sox lineup Sunday since he showed up late to the ballpark (maybe he was watching Olivia Wilde in something?). When he has made it to the field on time Alexei has been fairly productive in the second half hitting .284 with a .771 OPS, numbers that are very similar to the .278 and .733 career marks that he owns. With one more homer he will also post his 5th straight 10 homer season, and it will also be his 4th 10/10 season in five years (he stole only seven bags last year or he would have pulled off the double/double in all five of his big league seasons).

If you like spy shows, comedy, cartoons, hell if you have any taste, you have to check out Archer on FX if you haven’t already. It’s flippin awesome — and I hate that word, but it truly fits.

B.J. Upton is trying to put the slow start he had to the season behind him. The elder Upton bashed three long balls Sunday giving him six homers in his last 11 games. His overall numbers include a mere .256 batting average, but he’s driven in 66 runs, has scored 65 times, and has gone 20/20 yet again (21 homers, 29 SBs). This is the third 20/20 effort of his career, the second in a row, and with one more steal he’ll also have 5-straight efforts of at least 30 thefts. He’s a ballplayer that brings everything in the fantasy game, other than batting average of course.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

The weekend is quickly approaching, so get ready to get your swerve on. For those of you looking to remain at least a little bit serious with your hobby (fantasy baseball not drinking) I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday while also suggesting you head over to DailyJoust.com to check out their unique brand of daily fantasy baseball games (including a way to win two tickets to the Major League All-Star Game).

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Jay Bruce vs. Nick Blackburn: Bruce has been ice cold for a while hitting .227 over his last 45 games. Still, he has 12 walks in 18 games in June and his SLG for the month is .500. Bruce has gone deep 12 times in 174 at-bats against righties this year and he gets to face Nick Blackburn who has been torched by lefty batters this year to the tune of a .393 BAA and .924 OPS against this season.

Andre Ethier vs. Dan Haren: The Angels’ righty has struggled a bit with health and performance which only adds to the aura for Ethier in this matchup. In 44 career at-bats Ethier has five doubles, two homers, seven RBI and a .386 batting average against Haren. James Loney also hammers Haren (.359 in 39 at-bats).

David Wright vs. Andy Pettitte: Wright is third in baseball with a .358 batting average. He’s hitting .343 in June. He’s hitting .343 against lefties this season. Facing Pettitte 24 previous times Wright has managed to produce two homers an a .458 batting average. Lock and load.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

A.J. Burnett vs. Tigers: The last eight times that Burnett has taken the hill this year he has allowed two or fewer runs seven times (he allowed three runs in the other outing). He’s also picked up a win in each of his last six outings. He does face a Tigers club that is potent, but I’m going to focus on his recent success this season and the 5-2 career record he has against the Tigers over the 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP he has against the Motown club over nine career starts.

Jason Hammel vs. Nationals: Hammel has killed it at home this year with a 2.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over five starts spanning 32 innings. He’s also had success in his career against the Nats going 4-0 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over six starts.

Clayton Richard vs. Mariners: (1) He’s facing the Mariners. (2) Richard is Matt Cain when pitching at home. Think I’m nuts? Here are the numbers that prove it.

Matt Cain 2012: 12Wins, 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 179 K in 222.2 IP

Clayton Richard career at Petco: 13Wins , 2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 180 K in 228.1 IP

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Russell Martin vs. Chris Young: Martin has eight hits in 25 at-bats against Young leading to a .320 batting average. Martin has also had a solid June with four homers and nine RBIs for the Yankees.

Alexei Ramirez vs. Randy Wolf: The lefty from Milwaukee has bombed on the road this year with a 6.75 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over six starts. Ramirez has finally started to pick things up of late as well as he’s hitting .359 the past two weeks, and for his career he has hit .300 in 617 at-bats against lefties.

Ben Zobrist vs. Kyle Kendrick: Over the past two weeks Zobrist is hitting a robust .400 (he’s also scored 10 runs in 10 games). Kendrick, on the other hand, has struggled like he’s looking to be demoted as he’s allowed at least five runs in each of this last three starts as his ERA has gone from 4.02 to .529.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Johnny Cueto vs. Twins: The Twins can’t hit, and that situation isn’t helped by the fact that Joe Mauer can’t get his wheel healthy enough to play. Cueto has never faced the Twins but he’s sporting a 2.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in six home starts this season, and over his last four outings overall he’s permitted only seven runs while not allowing a single long ball.

Ian Kennedy vs.  Cubs: Though he owns a 5.91 ERA over three starts against the Cubs, how about we focus on the positive –  he’s lasted 21.1 innings in those three starts during which time he has struck out 18 and walked only two leading to a 1.08 WHIP. Kennedy has also allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts this year. The key will be keeping the ball in the yard as he’s allowed nine homers over his last eight outings.

Adam Wainwright vs. Royals: Wainwright is back on his game, well pretty much. Though he allowed seven runs on June 1st the other six times he has taken the hill since May 20th have resulted in eight earned runs allowed. In the process Adam W. has lowered his ERA from 5.77 to 4.46. He’s also had success in his career against the Royals with a 3.31 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 32.2 innings.

CONTESTS

Over at DailyJoust folks, lots of hot things popping (didn’t I sound super street there?).

Friday June 22 7pm EST – 2012 MLB All Star Joust.

This contest has been running for the past six weeks and Jousters have been playing every day to see who will qualify. If you were the winner of a $1 Page Thomas or $2 Squire Williams All Star Joust Qualifier, then you have earned a seat in the All Star Joust. The winner of All Star Joust will receive $1500 CASH plus 2 tickets to the 2012 MLB All Star Game in Kansas City on July 10th.

$2,000 MLB All Star Joust Freeroll
- $1,500 CASH to the WINNER
- 2 tickets ($500 value) to the 2012 MLB All Star Game in Kansas City on July 10th
Please check the list of Qualifiers to see if you are in All Star Joust

$1,000 King James “BEAT MOBYDICKLER” MLB Tournament
- 1st place $400 and Tournament Badge
- Winner gets seat in $15,000 Super Joust III in September
- Beat “Mobydickler” and earn a “Bounty” badge towards your Super Joust III and $250 Monthly Badge Rewards Freeroll total

$300 King John MLB Tournament – $5 entry
- 1st place $100
- Winner receives seat in $15,000 Super Joust III in September

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link and look for the “Crown” icon along with “Super Joust Qualifier” in the contest line.

Daily Joust – Wk 11: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late.
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Jake Arrieta (+43, $212,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
Arrieta dominated the Pirates in his last outing (1 ER in 7 IP) reminding everyone just how good he can be. Of course, the previous start his evil twin came out as he allowed 11 hits and nine runs in just four innings against the Phillies. He pitches in the toughest division in baseball (AL East), and consistency has always eluded him, but this is a young fella that does own a big arm (8.33 K/9, 3.13 K/BB this season).

Craig Gentry (+14, $91K)
Josh Hamilton is dealing with a nasty flu bug, and Nelson Cruz is seemingly always hurt somewhere, so Gentry has been generating a lot of excitement offensively this season in limited playing time. Craig has hit an uber impressive .349 while stealing nine bags in just 109 at-bats, and he has been raking it the past two weeks hitting .484 over his last 31 at-bats. Leonys Martin was called up which could eat into the playing time of Gentry, but he still makes a fine AL-only target.

Mike Minor (+30, $238K)
He’s finally found his game. In his last two starts Minor has allowed a total of two runs to drop his ERA by nearly a run to 6.01. Still, he walked six batters in those two outings signaling that everything isn’t totally “fixed” with his game. His skills far outpace that ERA and his WHIP (1.42) so buying low here certainly makes sense as the Braves have decided to return Kris Medlen to the pen to allow Minor and Randall Delgado to continue to start.

Alexei Ramirez (+17, $77K)
You’re killing me smalls. After improving to .245 with 18 RBI in May, June has been more of the same blah for Alexei as he has hit .212 with a .462 OPS in 52 at-bats. The only thing keeping him in the lineup at this point is his history of success cause he certainly hasn’t merited full time at-bats given his sickly .527 OPS through 64 games.

Jonathan Sanchez ($37, $207K)
A 2-start pitcher this week (HOU, STL) the enigma that is Sanchez continues to vex. In his return from injury he held the Brewers to one run in five innings and walking two batters has to been as an improvement for a guy who has issued 24 free passes in 30.1 innings. He’s not to the point where you can trust him – obviously – but if he goes out and looks solid this week it would be a great time to pounce.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Jose Altuve (-11, $91K)
After hitting .283 in May he’s upped that mark back to .317 in June, which just so happens to match his year mark. His speed is allowing him to leg out a few more hits than I expected, but it’s a long season. Given that he’s no power hitter, and that he doesn’t really draw walks either, he’s going to have to keep that average up or he’ll also see his steal total fall do to a lack of times on base to attempt a theft (his OBP is just .359 despite that .317 batting average).

Jose Bautista (-16, $118K)
Flashing the power bat that has produced 40 homers, 100 RBI and 100 runs the past two years, Bautista is on pace to reach all of those marks yet again in 2012 (19 homers, 47 RBI, 42 runs scored in 66 games). However, like I’ve said about 97 times over the past two years, Bautista is NOT a .300 hitter, not even close. Batting .230 on the year, I’ll write it again – in a career that began in 2004 Jose Bautista has finished a season with a batting average over .265 one time – once. It’s an open question if he will make it two times this year.

J.A. Happ (-38, $155K)
Bombed in his last start (8 ER in 3.1 innings against Giants), Happ is sporting a 5.33 ERA and 1.60 WHIP. Consider me shocked (if you could see my face right now you’d understand that I’m not shocked in the least – the guy just isn’t that good a pitcher). NL-only leaguers have had the benefit of Happ’s 76 KS in 72.2 innings, but even in that setup you’re paying a high price for some punchouts (as you can tell over at Fleaflicker, most people are doing the right thing an avoiding Happ).

Derek Lowe (-16, $181K)
If you had said back in March that on June 19th Lowe would have seven victories an a 3.78 ERA I’d have said he would have exceeded all expectations. However, he’s seen his ERA go from 2.15 to that 3.78 mark in his last four outings, though that could hardly be a shock for a guy who has only two more Ks than walks (28 Ks, 26 BBs) in 78.2 innings. Lowe is a middling innings eater who should only be used in certain matchups — and that K-rate is vomit inducing at 3.20 per nine.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Shortstop

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

2011 SHORTSTOP Top-10
1 Hanley Ramirez
2 Troy Tulowitzki
3 Jimmy Rollins
4 Jose Reyes
5 Derek Jeter
6 Alexei Ramirez
7 Stephen Drew
8 Elvis Andrus
9 Yunel Escobar
10 Rafael Furcal

Ramirez had a four year run going of hitting at least .300 with 21 homers, 67 RBI, 92 runs and 27 steals. He didn’t reach a single one of those numbers in 2011 (.243-10-45-55-20). He eventually had surgery on his injured shoulder, and the hope is that he will be ready for the start of the 2012 season.

Tulowitzki hit 30 homers and powered a career best 105 runners across the plate as he hit .302 and posted a third straight OPS of over .900 at .916. However, he also scored a three year low with 81 runs, and he failed to record double-digit steals for the first time in three years with nine.

Rollins rebounded from an injury induced slump in 2010, but the numbers were still far from the elite totals that he had posted in the past (.268-16-63-87-30). At 32 years old he can still be a mighty productive player, but keep your expectations in check when drafting him in 2012.

Reyes wants someone to show him the money. He went out and hit .337, the best mark in the NL, and he scored 101 runs for the Metropolitans. That run scored mark was impressive given that he appeared in only 126 games, but he stole “only” 39 bags, a disappointing total for a guy who stole at least 56 bases each year from 2005-2008.

Jeter hit six homers, the first time he ever failed to go deep 10 times, and he also scored a career worst 84 runs. On the positive tip he produced 61 RBI, an 8th straight year of at least that number, an a late run at the dish resulted in him hitting .297 on the year.

Ramirez always seems to be slumping, but in the end there are few more productive, and consistent, performers at the position. For the fourth time in four years he hit 15 homers with 68 RBI, and he scored 81 runs, swiped seven bags, and hit a passable .269.

Drew fractured his right ankle and as a result suited up for just 86 games. He was productive when on the field with five homers, 45 RBI and 44 runs scored, but he simply didn’t play enough to be worthy of much of anything this season.

Andrus slightly improved his average up to .279, the same trick he pulled off with his OBP of .347 (both three year bests). Andrus also posted 3-years bests in runs (96), hits (164), doubles (27), RBI (60) and steals (37).

Escobar had a lost 2010 season causing many to forget, or at least overlook, him on draft day. I wasn’t one of those who walked by without looking. Escobar ended up producing a season that fell right in line with his 2008-09 efforts as he hit .290 with 11 homers, 48 RBI, 77 runs scored an a .782 OPS for the Blue Jays.

Furcal had yet another injury filled an unproductive season split between the Dodgers and the Cardinals hitting just .231 with eight homers, 28 RBI, 44 runs and nine steals in just 87 games. Per game he was  productive in the counting categories, but for a second straight year the 34 year old Furcal failed to appear in 100 games.

Hit: Yunel Escobar #9

Bust: Rafael; Furcal #10
It’s too easy to list Hanley Ramirez, and since we all know how pathetic he was, it doesn’t serve much purpose to blast him here again. We all know he was the biggest bust in baseball.

By Ray Flowers

ADP Talk: What Stands Out?

With the fantasy sports world just about over football – for those of you that have already moved on the Superbowl is in a week – mock drafts for baseball are really starting to heat up. Today, in preparation for our discussion on the Fanball Fantasy Drive (you can hear the show every day, from 5-8 PM EDT, on Sirius 211 and XM 147 – you can call in with your questions on any fantasy sport), I thought I would point out some of the interesting ADP trends that stuck out for me when I was reviewing things over at MockDraftCentral this morning.

Third Base Going Early

Almost the first term out of everyone’s mouth this draft season seems to be “position scarcity.” There are a couple of positions that seem pretty top heavy with shortstop and third base being at the head of the list. When looking at the ADP information we find fourth third basemen going in the top-20 selections: Evan Longoria (ADP of 5 overall), David Wright (10), Alex Rodriguez (16) and Ryan Zimmerman (20). I completely agree that those are the top-4 third sackers on the board, but I really wonder if it’s worth reaching on Longoria as a top-5 option. Just compare his numbers last season to Zimmerman.

Longoria: .294-22-104-96-15
Zimmerman: .307-25-85-85-4

Longoria certainly has a higher ceiling, but I’d lean toward Zimmerman in the second versus Longoria that early given the return on investment (ROI) opportunity.

The Top-5 Shortstops

Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (4), Jose Reyes (26), Jimmy Rollins (43), Derek Jeter (48) – that’s your top-5. Only two other shortstops are in the top-100: Elvis Andrus (71) and Alex Ramirez (100).

Hanley Ramirez OPS dropped .101 points last year. He’s also seen his homer total dip from 33 to 21 the last three years while his runs scored marked has gone from 125 to 92. Is he really the no-doubt #2 man overall?

Reyes 17 picks ahead of Rollins? I’m not buying that. You can read about my thoughts on those two in Top-10 SS for 2011. I also don’t think that Jeter is a bad pickup this year (The Value of Jeter). At the same time, Ramirez hit .012 points higher than Jeter, with eight more homers, three more RBI and just five fewer steals last season – and he is available 52 picks later.

Only One SP in Top-20

Only one starting pitcher is going in the top-20, and that is the Phillies’ Roy Halladay. Most people tend to eschew starting pitching early in drafts because there is more volatility with pitchers from year to year. At the same time, with hitting on the decline, perhaps pitchers should be taken a bit earlier? Nah. Only two other hurlers are going in the top-34: Tim Lincecum (21) and Felix Hernandez (27).

* Riddle me this – which one of these pitching lines would you want most?

12-9, 3.18 ERA, 185 Ks, 1.00 WHIP in 212.1 IP
13-10, 2.91 ERA, 212 Ks, 1.18 WHIP in 204.1 IP
11-6, 2.30 ERA, 186 Ks, 1.11 WHIP in 183.2 IP

Those numbers belong to Cliff Lee (37), Clayton Kershaw (51) and Josh Johnson (66). Are you sure you want to reach that early for Mr. Lee?

Hell, do you want Lincecum (21) over Kershaw (51) given what each will cost you?

Lincecum: 16-10, 3.43 ERA, 231 Ks, 1.27 WHIP in 212.1 IP
Kershaw: 13-10, 2.91 ERA, 212 Ks, 1.18 WHIP in 204.1 IP

* When are most teams jumping in and taking their #1 starter? Look at picks 53-66 for that as eight of those 14 picks are being spent on starting pitchers.

People Waiting on RPs

Not surprisingly, the best closer in the history of baseball is being drafted first at the position as Mariano Rivera has an ADP of 61. Only four other relievers are going in the top-100 with a clear grouping of three others being taken ahead of everyone else: Carlos Marmol (71), Brian Wilson (77), Joakim Soria (78). After that, we have to wait until Heath Bell at 96.

People Waiting on Catchers

Five catchers are being taken in the top-100 as people seem acutely aware of the fact that injuries can bite backstops at any time. Moreover, only six catchers are going in the next 100 picks meaning that in standard 12 team, 1 catcher leagues, someone is waiting until after the 200th selection to take first catcher. Currently, the 12th and 13th catchers off the board are Yadier Molina (215) and Carlos Ruiz (221). Those are the two catchers I selected in Vegas Baby, and the FSTA (that league starts two catchers).

* Catchers going in the 300′s that could be decent bargains in 2011: Chris Iannetta (337), Yorvit Torrealba (372) and J.P. Arencebia (374).

You can read more about Torrealba in Californian’s on the Move, and if the dumba– Rockies would just give Iannetta regular at-bats, he could be a fantasy beast. Per 541 at-bats in his career, Iannetta has produced an average of 25 homers and 91 RBI. Think Mike Napoli-lite.

By Ray Flowers