Answering Your Questions

People ask me questions every day, and I do my best to give a thoughtful, and hopefully well reasoned, answer to each of them. In what follows I’m going to answer some of the questions that were posted in the COMMENTS section of the Around the Horn, July 21st article.

What the outlook on Adam Wainwright for next year? Is he worthy on a keeper position in a 12 league (10 keepers)? Or would Jair Jurrjens or is Max Scherzer be a safer bet?
– Josh

It sounds like Wainwright is ahead of schedule in his return from Tommy John surgery. All reports point to him being full healthy and ready to go by Opening Day 2012 (in fact, there are rumors floating that he might even be able to help the Cardinals this year if they make the playoffs). Wainwright had 39 wins in 2009-10, the second best total in baseball (one behind CC Sabathia). He also worked 463.1 innings, 6th in the game. You can’t expect him to go out there and toss 230 innings in his first year back, but with 2-straight years with an ERA under 2.65, and back-to-back 200 K seasons, it would be pretty tough not to protect him given that you keep 10 guys. Scherzer is healthier, of course, but his upside at the moment may not be the levels that Wainwright reached the last two years. Jurrjens has been spectacular, but as I continue to say, he just doesn’t have the skills to keep this up long term. I’d keep Wainwright.

Ray… what do u think of this trade Travis Hafner, Desmond Jennings, Rickie Weeks and Michael Young for Prince Fielder, Roy Halladay and Nick Markakis. 5 x 5 12 team roto. I don’t know if I’m just jealous the person didn’t trade with me or the trade was lopsided.
– Brian

I say it all the time, I don’t like deals that are this big – there are just too many parts to get a great read on the situation.

Hafner is locked into the UT spot, and for all his good with the stick, he just can’t stay healthy. Jennings has elite speed, and has shown more pop than expected in Triple-A this year, but he continues to be dogged by injuries. When will he be up? We all thought he would have been a month and a half ago. Weeks is an elite second baseman. Young is a solid hitter, .300 is always a reasonable expectation, and he qualifies at multiple spots.

Prince Fielder is a total beast, ditto Roy Halladay, and Nick Markakis it hitting .319 over his last 69 games. If this is a re-draft league I totally agree with you. This deal is completely unfair, obnoxiously so actually.

Evan Longoria is nursing an injury in his leg. Would you be worried he gets shut down early this year? Are you scared this injury could hurt him significantly in future years. Would you be scared if you owned him in a keeper league? Do you think Eric Hosmer has Ryan Braun/Joey Votto/Justin Morneau upside in a few years?
– Thomas

I don’t worry about Longoria being shut down unless he’s going to do long-term danger to himself. Of course, I’m not a doctor, and I didn’t stay at a Holiday Inn last night, so I really don’t know. I’m certainly not concerned about injuries being a long-term issue.

As for Hosmer, he could hit .295 with 22 homers and 77 RBI, the numbers of Morneau over his last 509 at-bats. However, I’m not going to sit here and say he’s gonna hit .320 with 35 homers like Braun and Votto as that would be unfair to Hosmer if he settles in as a .300-25 guy. Could Hosmer get to that upper level? Sure, but remember, you can count on one hand, two at the most, the guys that could go .320-35 year after year. I’s a very small group.

I need ERA, WHIP, K’s – my staff is Michael Pineda, Jeremy Hellickson, Yovani Gallardo, Johnny Cueto and Max Scherzer. I am scared of both Pineda and Hellickson inning limits so thinking of offering Hellickson, Howie Kendrick, Eric Hosmer for Cole Hamels, Alexi Casilla, Travis Snider…good move?
– Scott

Pineda could have his innings limited. In fact he likely will according to the Mariners. Hellickson, not so worried about him and the innings, but he could have his workload curtailed.

Kendrick is a .300 hitter with some pop, speed, and qualification at positions all over the field. Hosmer is a solid bat, but in a non-keeper league he isn’t close to being a top flight first baseman option. Hamels is elite. No reason to expect a drop-off moving forward. Casilla is hitting only .247 with a .290 OBP and two steals the last month. Snider is killing it, .326 with two homers and 14 RBI the past two weeks.

You’re giving up a ton of talent to get an ace. However, this move would fit your need, though I’d be reluctant to do it.

I was just wondering your opinion on two players. I recently got Melky Cabrera and Mark Trumbo on my team thru trade and free agency, respectively. What do you think about these players? Can they keep up their numbers the rest of the way? I think Melky is real interesting because before I got him I didn’t realize how young he was as it seemed like he’s been playing forever, all those years with the Yankees. Now he’s putting up great 5 cat numbers. Is he just coming into his own? And Trumbo, will he hit a wall soon?
– Jackson

Melky is on pace to produce a 5×5 line of .294-19-89-100-23. Every one of those numbers would be a career best. He’s doing tall that despite a career worst walk rate an a career high strikeout rate. He’s also bettered his career OBP by a mere .002 points (it’s a league average .331). His GB/FB ratio is 1.55, an exact match for his career level. Oh, his HR/F ratio is 11.1 percent, a massive increase on his career rate (6.8). Cabrera isn’t as good as he has looked. He’s basically doing what he always does, with never before seen power that I doubt will continue. He’s also a trade option, and I could see him getting dealt to a team where he plays four out of five days which would diminish his value. He’s not a 20 homer bat, he’s not a 20 steal runner, and he’s not a .300 hitter despite what we’ve seen to this point.

Trumbo is having a nice season. With 18 homers and 44 RBI in 320 at-bats, he’s on pace to end the year with 29 homers and 72 RBI which would be wonderful numbers for a rookie. There’s no reason to expect him to hit a wall simply because the calendar is ready to move to August in a week and a half. He’s done a decent job with a strikeout per 4.32 at-bats, though he isn’t drawing many walks (5.2 BB-rate). He’s not likely to see his batting average increase much (.259) given that, but he should continue to pound the long ball.

 

By Ray Flowers

Free Agent Monday

photo © 2007 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

I’m not a huge fan of waiver-wire bingo. I think too often we go for the quick fix when slow and steady often wins the race. You know what I’m talking about. Some guy goes 5-for-8 with a homer and a steal and you’d knock over your mother to get to the computer first so you could add him to your team (I know which one of you out there would do it to, so don’t B.S. me and say you wouldn’t). So it’s with trepidation that I throw out the following names based upon their work the past two weeks. Still, it’s Monday and you need to get your lineup in shape for the week, so if you have injured players, or guys that you simply can’t stomach for another week, here are some options you could turn to.

Alexi Casilla – .432-0-5-9-5 in 44 ABs
Finally. This guy can hit and steal a base, just look at his minor league numbers at Triple-A over 168 games: .278/.370/.371 with 38 thefts. However, after hitting .281 in 2008 with the Twins he’s struggled to get significant playing time in the bigs. With the Twins in desperate need of offense you can’t think he will be sitting any time soon, though it will be interesting to see what happens when Tsuyoshi Nishioka returns from the DL. For now, Casilla is white hot, and since he qualifies at 2B and SS there could easily be a spot for him on your club.

Freddie Freeman – .378-1-7-4-1 in 45 ABs
The problem for any solid first base hitter is that first base is the land of the titans. Solid just won’t cut it unless you are in a deep league or one that starts corner infielders. However, the Braves’ rookie is doing his best to make you consider his name for a starting spot. In six of his last eight games he has at least two hits, he’s driven in seven runners in that time, and lo and behold his season long batting average is now .277 – not bad when you consider it was sitting at .220 less than a month ago (May 13th). If you need an injury fill in he seems primed to help, but again, make sure you don’t make the mistake of thinking Freddie’s ready to be a starter at first in a 12 team mixed league.

Chase Headley – .354-0-5-5-2 in 48 ABs
Most will look at Headley and see one homer and 23 runs scored and think – why even bother with this third baseman? In retort I’d point out the following. (1) Headley is hitting .280, a solid mark. He’s also working on a 15-game hitting streak. (2) His OBP is strong at .385. In fact, that’s the best mark of any NL third baseman. (3) He has seven steals. Only two third base eligible players have more – Ryan Roberts and David Wright have nine each. Headley isn’t a difference maker, but he’s a solid add if your lineup needs a boost.

Adam Kennedy – .342-1-8-7-0 in 38 ABs
Kennedy came out of nowhere to hit .289 with 11 homers and 20 steals in 2009 after it seemed like his career was heading off into the sunset. He predictably slumped last year down to .249 with three homers, but he’s back at it again in 2011. The Mariners’ offense is atrocious, so Kennedy should continue to see time until he slows down. The pending call up of Dustin Ackley is a concern, they won’t call him up to have him watch from the bench, but until then Kennedy is a moderate add for those of you who need some batting average help up the middle, and he’s always good for a few thefts.

Miguel Olivo – .350-4-13-7-1 in 40 ABs
Over the last three games he has three homers and seven RBI, and he’s posted a hit in 6-straight to raise his average .012 points. Consistent. That’s what Olivo is. I’ve said and written it before, but here it is again. Over the past five years only two catchers in baseball have 11 homers and 41 RBI each season. They are Brian McCann and Miguel Olivo.

Cliff Pennington – .349-0-3-5-1 in 43 ABs
If you are a Jimmy Rollins or Hanley Ramirez owner you might look this guys way. He’s clearly hitting well, and he’s shown the ability to swipe plenty of bases (he had 29 steals last year). He’s nothing more than a place holder in mixed leagues, but you could do worse in the short-term.

Ruben Tejada – .326-0-8-5-0 in 43 ABs
Limitations are the name of the game here. In 17 games this year he has zero homers. In 95 career games he has only one. In 17 games this year he has zero steals. In 95 games he has only two. He’s also hit a mere .232 in 272 career at-bats. OK, maybe I shouldn’t have mentioned him at all.

Ty Wigginton – .326-3-5-8-0 in 43 ABs
He somehow always goes underrated while somehow getting enough at-bats to blast 20 homers. Ty qualifies at 1B, 3B and 2B in every league, so he is a great guy to have at the end of your bench. When he’s getting regular playing time, like he is now, and is also hitting well, as he has since he returned from injury, then it makes a lot of sense to have him in your starting lineup.

By Ray Flowers