Around the Horn: July24, 2012

(1) Ryan Dempster traded or not?

(2) Ichiro now in Big Apple after trade from Mariners.

(3) Anibal Sanchez/Omar Infante sent to Detroit for future ace Jacob Turner.

(4) Colby Lewis done for year – elbow surgery.

(5) Justin Smoak sent to Triple-A.

(6) Roy Halladay shaky.

(7) Jordan Zimmerman/Ryan Vogelsong = money in the bank.

 

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May23, 2012

(1)  Austin Jackson continues to miss time with abdominal issue (check out how good he has been over at Fleaflicker). Team calls up Quentin Berry.

(2) Mike Napoli – has he really been awful this season?

(3) Roy Oswalt close to signing with the Rangers in wake of injury to Neftali Feliz?

(4) Ryan Braun – guess what, he’s a fantasy superstar once again.

(5) Lance Berkman – will knee surgery knock him out longer than 6-8 weeks?

(6) J.J. Hardy dealing with shoulder soreness.

(7) Carlos Pena batting leadoff again.

(8) Red Sox moving parts around with Adrian Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis and Will Middlebrooks.

 

By Ray Flowers

Nathan to Close for Rangers

The Rangers made a move that will help to shape their ballclub in 2012 on Monday. The club from Texas signed Joe Nathan to a 2-year deal worth $15 million (with a club option for a third year). What does this deal mean for Nathan, and more importantly, the young arm that has filled the role of closer for the Rangers the past couple of seasons?

Nathan was brought into Texas to close. The 37 year old reliever, coming back off Tommy John surgery last season, pitched just 44.2 innings with a 4.84 ERA in 2011 which might cause many to wonder what the Rangers were thinking here. What they realized was that Nathan looked just like his old self in the second half of the season – a very common occurrence for pitchers coming back from TJ surgery who often need some time to round back into shape. Nathan posted the following numbers over his last 24 outings last year: 8.61 K/9, 4.40 K/BB, 1.00 WHIP with a .207 batting average against. That was good enough for the Rangers to believe Nathan will be in 2012 what he was every year from 2004-09, and that was an elite relief pitcher (in those six seasons Nathan’s lowest save total was 36). Nathan was brought in to close for the Rangers in 2012, and he should be very successful in that role.

Now we have to deal with the aftermath of that signing, and that is what happens to Neftali Feliz, who racked up 72 saves the past two years? Teams realize that it’s much easier to find someone to pitch one inning out of the bullpen than it is to find a hurler who can dominate out of the rotation every five days. As such, the plan has always been for Feliz to start for the Rangers. Given the success that the Rangers had in converting C.J. Wilson and Alexi Ogando into starters the past two years, they clearly have a nice blueprint in place to help aid their hurlers in that transition. The move of Feliz into the rotation might also be an admission that the Rangers do not feel confident that they will be able to retain Wilson who is the top free agent arm on the market.

So what should you expect from Feliz in 2012? Good question. While the move to the rotation will likely reap major rewards at some point, it’s tough to see how he could become a dominant starter this coming season. There are a couple of reasons for that.

(1) A youngster at 23 years old, Feliz has thrown a total of 132.2 innings the past two years for the Rangers. Given that smallish workload, there are serious questions about how far the Rangers will let Feliz go in 2012. Ogando transitioned to the starting rotation and threw 169 innings in 2011 (Wilson was allowed to go 204 innings, but he was much older and had five years of big league experience under his belt). If Feliz was allowed to reach that rather modest total of 170 innings that would be 100 innings more than he has thrown in either of the last two seasons. That’s a huge increase. Given the importance of pitching in the game, and repeated instances of young hurlers having arm issues with major innings pitched increases, Feliz could be looking at a late season shut down, or periodic skipping of starts throughout the year to keep the innings under control.

(2) Feliz effortlessly tosses 96 mph cheese at hitters and that has led to an impressive 164 Ks in 162.2 innings in his career. However, his K-rate fell from 11.32 as a rookie down to 9.22 in 2010 and then 7.80 last season. If he could only strike out 7.80 batters per nine as a reliever last season, how many will he punch out when he is stretched out as a starter?

(3) After posting a BB/9 mark under 2.35 his first two years, Feliz saw that number explode in 2011 up to 4.33. If he can’t bring his walk rate back down, success will be elusive, especially if he repeats his awful 1.80 K/BB ratio from last season.

Let’s add everything up. Granted we’re talking only three years here, and with no season of even 70-innings it’s not a huge sample size, but in the following categories Feliz has seen his performance regress each of the past two years: ERA, WHIP, K/9, BB/9, K/BB, BAA, BABIP, LOB%, xFIP. Is that a trend you wanted to see?

Nathan will be fine as the Rangers’ closer, and barring a physical setback, he should be good to go with his normal 35 saves. As for Feliz, his outlook is less clear. There is no disputing that he has an elite arm, and that one day he could easily vie for the Cy Young award. Still, given his almost across the board struggles last year, and the fact that he’s never thrown 70-innings in a big league season, I’m not going to be one of those folks out there paying for a hurler that I expect to pitch 200 innings with 180 strikeouts and an ERA in the mid 3′s.

 By Ray Flowers

Readers Probes: Ogando and Twins’ Pen

photo © 2011 Mike LaChance | more info (via: Wylio)

 

I’m doing something today that I never do. I’m going to address two the questions from the COMMENTS section in an article today because I thought the conversation would be beneficial to all. I’ll directly quote the response of the readers, and then give my thoughts.

 

Yesterday in the July 5th Mailbag, I gave a less than glowing review of my outlook with Alexi Ogando. Reader Tom gave a differing viewpoint.

“As always, loved the piece. I just wanted to play devil’s advocate with Ogando for a moment with you, though. There are 2 main areas of worry: durability and performance.

With durability, we wonder about the huge jump in innings and getting tired as the season progresses. We’ve seen him tire lately, but the staff is aware and will rest him until July 19th (missing one start). Considering he’s a RP conversion, it might help to look at his teammate C.J. Wilson, with whom they did the same thing last year. Wilson’s previous high in innings was 73.2, but they had him finish with 228 last year (including playoffs). Did C.J. tire? Actually, he got better as the year progressed until September hit. Was it tiring or just regression from his really good numbers? Also, with C.J. (a RP convert), his K-rate was only mid 6′s through July, but then saw a large uptick into the end of year. We could be seeing the same thing with Ogando as well. He started throwing his slider more and bam…season high K’s. He could keep the K-rate at or above 8 as long as he throws the slider approximately 30 percent of the time or more.

Ogando’s innings [high was] about 71 (including minors), so about the same as Wilson had. A big difference between them is that Ogando has much better control. Because of that, he has many less stressful innings and likewise receives less wear and tear on the arm. It isn’t so much about innings as it is a) total pitches and more importantly b) innings with stressful pitch numbers (the innings where 30+ pitches are thrown). As far as performance goes, yes he will see a correction in BABIP. The reason why it is lower at the moment is because of the contact he induces (weak off the bat). That is why his BABIP against line drives and flies is better than league avg and that his HR/9 is better. Will it stay at .247 (present), no. But it is possible for it to remain in the .280′s (Wilson career .289). Also consider that the league-wide BABIP is about .290 this year vs historically always being .300. Also consider that since the beginning of June, Ogando has carried a .310 BABIP and 57 LOB percent…while his ERA/WHIP have been 3.95/1.28. This includes arguably the roughest stretch in performance of his career.

Is it crazy to think this is just a little regression to the mean and nothing more (considering Ogando carries a career 2.39 ERA and 1.06 WHIP)? And if this is the rough stretch (and still a decent pitcher), I wonder how he’ll be with some rest, more sliders, and a better idea of how to pitch as he gains experience. I’m not willing to say he is elite, but he is certainly up there. And just think, Tim Lincecum is going through a rough stretch as well. Over the last 30 days, he is 1-3 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.44 WHIP. But we’re not going to write him off. Considering that Ogando’s rough patch isn’t that bad and other than those few games, he was amazing…maybe we should give him the benefit of the doubt. There is precedent with his own teammate as recent as last year that this could hold up over a full season. Maybe lightning does strike twice.”
– TOM

Tom – No one ever brings it more in their analysis here than you do. I applaud the effort you put in, must have taken  you a good half hour or more to break down everything with Ogando. Great work – you’re a model for everyone that just writes ‘nuh uh’ in their responses.

I will not dispute the main factual arguments you presented, but I will question the comparison that you drew. It’s easy to compare Ogando to Wilson in that both are converted relievers for the Rangers, but it’s pretty darn hard to directly compare the two. First, Wilson had trained for years in America and had been a big league pitcher for years. Even if his innings total was low, you have to think he was better trained, or shall we say prepared, than Ogando. Second, they are different types of pitchers. Ogando’s GB/FB rate is 0.95 over his two seasons while Wilson’s mark is 1.67. That’s a massive difference that clearly swings things in Wilson’s favor. Third, let’s take a look at your pitch contention. This season Ogando has thrown an average of 3.93 pitches per plate appearances and 15.9 pitches per inning. Last season, during Wilson’s big innings pitched bump, he tossed 4.05 pitches per plate appearance and 16.9 pitches per inning. I’m not measuring “stress” at all with those numbers, but those numbers are pretty close (Wilson’s been better this year at 3.85 and 15.8). Fourth, you can’t really compare two pitchers to one another. You can look at historical averages and draw come basic conclusions (.290-300 BABIP for a league average for example), but that doesn’t mean that Ogando will be in that range (as you already know) – he could end up setting a baseline above, or more likely, below it.

The problem with Ogando is that we simply do not know what to expect. Given traditional measures of analysis and historical trends, the pendulum would have to favor me in this argument. Does this mean I will be “right” about Ogando? I wouldn’t have written what I did if I didn’t believe it, but that doesn’t mean I’m always going to be right.

 

“Ray, is Glen Perkins a save candidate now with another save Tuesday for the Twins? Need to pick up a pitcher, either the injury prone Rich Harden or Perkins? Thanks.”
– JIM

Jim – The Twins closing situation is up in the air. Matt Capps is struggling, he will not be given a saves chance today if one arises, and even if he rights the ship he could be traded at some point (I touched on this situation yesterday in the Mailbag piece referenced above).

Joe Nathan is improving as he’s looked good since he returned from the DL with four straight scoreless outings in which he hasn’t allowed a single batter to reach base via a walk while allowing only one hit. The Twins obviously are looking at returning him to the 9th inning, but is he ready to assume that role right now?

Perkins has two saves in 112 career games. He’s also left handed, and many managers prefer to avoid port siders in the 9th because of matchups, but here’s the biggest issue – he’s never been this good before.(1) His K/9 is up over four full batters. I know he is working out of the bullpen right now versus spending all his time starting, but can he really go from a five per nine type of hurler to a guy with more than a K per inning? Count me doubtful there. (2) He has a 4 year low in his walk rate (nearly a full batter above his normal rate). (3) In 30.1 innings he hasn’t allowed a single home run (his career rate is 1.16 per nine). There’s just no way that I can look at him and trust him to be a closer, and I don’t think the Twins will see is differently. I’m not saying he wont get a few looks in the short term, I think he might, but he’s not likely to have long term success in that role with his skill set and current level of performance which is so drastically out of line with his previous five seasons in the big leagues.

Do I suggest adding Perkins or Harden? Depends on your need (does your team lack for relief or starting pitching?). Harden has great skills, but he has played this game with us all before. Just when we buy that he is “back,” injury strikes. If you need save help add Perkins. Even if he picks up only a few it might help you move up the standings a spot or two. I just don’t trust Harden’s being able to take the ball every five days the rest of the way. If it doesn’t work out with Perkins, you should still be able to find starting help on the waiver-wire.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 5, 2011

photo © 2009 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are some answers to a few of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you trade away Alexi Ogando for Carlos Beltran?
– @ToddScreamer

Back on May 16th I wrote the following about Ogando. “…there is no way he can perform this well all season… Ogando has been magnificent, but if you can convince someone that he is a top-20 hurler, now is the time to move him.” I have to admit he’s held on much longer than I thought he would, but at the same time there are some troublesome signs. First, he’s failed to last more than five innings in three of four starts. Second, over his last four starts he’s 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Now you might say small sample size to brush off that recent run of poor work, but the mitigating factor here is that Ogando has already reached a career-high in innings pitched. In this day and age of pitch and inning counts, just how hard are the Rangers going to push Ogando? For that matter, how will his arm hold up under the increasingly heavy workload? Finally, Ogando owns a middling K/9 rate (6.73), a poor GB/FB (0.88) and there is still no way to explain his .247 BABIP given his over 22 percent line drive rate.

Beltran has been as good as ever at the plate. It’s pretty shocking actually given the physical issues that limited him to 145 games played the last two years. Let’s compare his work this season to his career averages.

Career: .282/.360/.494
2011: .281/.371/.492

It’s pretty amazing how close those numbers are. How about the counting stats you ask? He only has 350 plate appearances right now, so I’ll give you those numbers and his career averages per 350 PAs.

Career: 14 homers, 52 RBI, 54 runs, 14 steals
2011: 12 homers, 55 RBI, 46 runs, three steals

Pretty much everything suggests that Beltran is “back,” though the pink elephant in the room is the lack of steals. Given his knee issues the past few years they may never come back, but that doesn’t mean Beltran won’t continue to be a force with a bat in his hands.

I find it hard to believe I’m typing this, but I’m going to say Beltran is the better bet to replicate his first half work in the second half. Beltran could be traded to a team with a better offense and get a chance to ply his trade in a better home park, and that intrigues me. Plus, I’m just not sold that Ogando is (a) going to keep up his current level of performance and (b) that his arm isn’t going to fall off if he more than doubles his previous career-high in innings.

As a Matt Capps owner I picked up Joe Nathan. How much longer till I’m dropping Capps?
– @j_peterson730

Capps blew a save chance July 2nd, and then on July 3rd he was removed after allowing two hits (it was Glen Perkins and not Nathan who was called in to clean up the mess). Capps was not pleased, and he even got the kiss of death after the game when manager Ron Gardenhire said he was still the closer for the Twins. Capps has been as good as ever with a mere 1.03 BB/9 mark, he just doesn’t beat himself, but oddly his K/9 mark is way down to 5.40 per nine, a terrible mark (career 6.83). That’s danger territory. At the same time virtually all the other major indicators with him point to this being a “normal” Capps effort which equates to solid without being overly interesting or dominating.

Is that enough to hold off Nathan? There are two things at work here. (1) Nathan is still working his way back to full strength (Nathan’s thrown the ball very well since returning from the DL but we’re only talking about four innings). It is heartening though that over his last six outings that he’s picked up six Ks without a single walk. He’s getting closer, and the mph is creeping up, but he’s still not back to 2009 form quite yet. (2) The Twins continue to be beat down by injuries as much as any club in baseball, and as a result they are in fourth place in the AL Central. They’re only eight games out, but there is a chance that we reach the end of the month and the Twins make the decision to move Capps to another contender. If that occurs then the 9th would be wide open in Minnesota.

For now you have to keep Capps because you won’t get much for him on the trade market. There’s also the fact that he is still the Twins’ closer. However, know that he isn’t at all likely to be picking up saves in August unless it’s with another club.

I have Vlad Guerrero and Bobby Abreu. Nick Swisher just became a free agent. Drop one for him?
– @ZacharyReid

Swisher killed it in June hitting .326 with seven homers and 23 RBI. As a result he is on pace to go .248-19-92-77 over 533 ABs this season. In his career, per 533 at-bats, Swisher has produced a line of .252-27-84-88. Obviously he’s right back where he should be, and it’s clear he shouldn’t be on waiver-wires.

Guerrero has 442 homers, 1,461 RBI, owns a .318 career average and has more than 2,500 hits in his career. He’s also never failed to hit .295 in a season, and every time he has had 500 ABs he has gone deep at least times 27 with 83 RBI. He’s aging (36 years old), and his body has been oft injured the past few years, but it’s pretty shocking to find him on pace to go .276 with 11 homers and 53 RBI. Abreu is another aging vet who has one big advantage over Vlad – he still steals bases. Abreu has 13 thefts putting him on pace for a 13th straight season of at least 20 steals. He’s also seen his average come up to .285 on the year, and the dude can still get on base with a .395 OBP. His power seems pretty much gone, even 12 homers will be a surprise this season (he currently has three), but he’s still pretty stable at the dish and on the base paths.

Add Swisher at the expense of Bad Vlad.

Which Jays’ OF to go with: Travis Snider, Eric Thames or Rajai Davis?
– @nylivincamind

A first round selection in 2006, Snider has been up and down more than the super hero genre in movie theaters this year. When he’s in the majors he has struggled hitting .249 with a .743 OPS in his career, but he kills it in the minors. Snider hit .333 this year at Triple-A as the Jays left him down there a long while to make sure he found his stroke after hitting .184 in 87 at-bats with the Jays earlier in the year. Snider had three hits in his first game back, is just 23 years old, and scouts will tell you this is a 30 homer bat.

Thames hit 27 homers with 104 RBI last season at Double-A to gain everyone’s attention. With the Jays recent dump of Juan Rivera, Thames should get ample chance to prove himself in the bigs. He likes to swing at the first pitch, and sometimes struggles with secondary stuff, but there is no disputing that he has talent. However, he will likely have to contend with Corey Patterson and Davis for playing time which is why I’d prefer Snider over Thames.

What about Davis? It seems like he got the message that his playing time was about to be curtailed. Davis has five hits and four thefts in his last two outings. Despite all his struggles he is still looking at a third straight 40-steal season. It also deserves to be pointed out that Davis loved to hit in the second half as his average is .302, .046 points better than his first half mark, while his OPS goes up to .758, .119 points better than his first half mark.

Davis would be my choice here. His average should come up from his current .237 mark, and his wheels are elite giving him a chance to be a second half difference maker.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Top-50 Relief Pitchers

Photo by Nick Fisher

 

Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a collaborative effort with Paul Sporer. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers and relievers.

Top-100 Starting Pitchers

In this entry I’ll breakdown my top-50 relievers for 2011.

Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target as values in drafts. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.

TOP-50 RELIEVERS

1 Brian Wilson

2 Joakim Soria

3 Heath Bell

4 Carlos Marmol

5 Jonathan Papelbon

6 Jonathan Axford

7 Neftali Feliz

8 Mariano Rivera

9 Andrew Bailey

10 Joel Hanrahan

11 Chris Perez

12 Jose Valverde

13 Matt Thornton

14 Jonathan Broxton

15 Huston Street

16 Brad Lidge

17 J.J. Putz

18 Francisco Rodriguez

19 Leo Nunez

20 Ryan Franklin

21 Drew Storen

22 Francisco Cordero

23 Craig Kimbrel

24 Joe Nathan

25 Frank Francisco

26 Jake McGee

27 Kevin Gregg

28 Fernando Rodney

29 Brandon League

30 Brandon Lyon

31 Hong-Chih Kuo

32 Ryan Madson

33 Luke Gregerson

34 Aroldis Chapman

35 Matt Capps

36 Jonny Venters

37 Rafael Soriano

38 Evan Meek

39 Kenley Jansen

40 David Aardsma

41 Daniel Bard

42 Mike Adams

43 Chris Sale

44 Scott Downs

45 Koji Uehara

46 Joba Chamberlain

47 Brian Fuentes

48 Kyle Farnsworth

49 Alexi Ogando

50 Tyler Clippard

 

* I’d feel really comfortable with any of the top-15 closers on this list, then things start to get a bit spotty.

* Brad Lidge (16) has the full trust of his manager Charlie Manuel, so as long as he is healthy, even if his ratios are sub par, you have to think 30 saves are a given.

* J.J. Putz (17) has the skills to be an elite reliever – if he’s healthy.

* K-Rod (18) is a disaster off the field. On it, there are concerns about whether or not the Mets will limit his work late in the year since he has a clause in his contract that will give him $17.5 million in 2012 if he finishes 55 games this season.

* Leo Nunez (19) has all kinds of questions surrounding him after a late season collapse last year. Still, the guy got more than a K per inning last season and had a GB/FB ratio of 1.79. If he repeats those numbers, success will follow.

* Francisco Cordero (22) has Aroldis Chapman (34) to worry about, but I would be more concerned about the fact that his K/9 rate has fallen off a cliff. Look at his marks the past four years: 12.22, 9.98, 7.83 and 7.31.

* Young arms with strong skill sets can be found in the 20′s highlighted by Craig Kimbrel (23) and Jake McGee (26). Can Kimbrel throw enough strikes to hold off Jonny Venters (36) in Atlanta? Will McGee open the year as the Rays’ closer? I don’t know as the club might go with Kyle Farnsworth (48), but I expect McGee to have the better year.

* Good luck finding betters arms than hurlers 31-34: Hong-Chih Kuo, Ryan Madson, Luke Gregerson and Aroldis Chapman.

* Don’t forget about Mike Adams (42) in San Diego. I’m not certain that if something happened to Heath Bell that it wouldn’t be he, and not Gregerson, who would pitch the 9th inning.

* If the Rangers do the unexpected and ask Neftali Feliz (7) to fill a starting role, Alexi Ogando (49) could get a long look as the 9th inning arm since the club sent Frank Francisco (25) to the Blue Jays this offseason.

CATEGORY TARGETS

I’m a man of my word. On The Drive yesterday on SirusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (5-8 PM EST, Sirius211, XM147), we received a call from Jeff in North Carolina. He asked me what “targets” he should look to attain when building a team in a 12-team league (i.e. how many homers he would need to hit to win a 12-team league). As I said on the air I would get him an answer, and here it is in the form of a link to an article written by fantasy baseball expert Shawn Childs. Enjoy.

By Ray Flowers