FanDuel Contest: $3000 Friday Tournament

Every Friday at BaseballGuys.com, I relay to you how you can sign up for a daily fantasy baseball game courtesy of FanDuel.com. Today is no different. I’ll spend a bit of time detailing how you can win some cash, and then I’ll give away all my secrets by letting you know who should, or shouldn’t, be in your lineup. Oh, and finally, I’m also going to be in the league, so you will get a shot to take down the obnoxious Ray Flowers.

* NOTE: This information about who to play on Friday is clearly something those of you in standard roto leagues should be looking at as well. Guys like Buster Posey and Dustin Pedroia may not be guys you want in your lineup Friday.

$3000 Friday Fantasy Baseball Tournament

You got $10 laying around? Do you want to spend it on a hot dog and beer? Sure you could do that, but in 15 minutes it would be gone. Well, until the hot dog starts repeating on you in about an hour an a half that is. Why not take that $10 and try to win part of the $3000 cash prize given away by FanDuel.com? Here’s what you do.

Sign up using this link.

Select your salary cap roster by 7 PM EDT, Friday.

Watch the games tonight. Pick up your cash (there are 37 spots that pay out… and even the 37th finisher doubles their initial investment).

So sign up, enjoy the night of games, and then win some cash. Maybe you’ll be able to buy a hot dog and a case of beer for your next Friday night.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup for your chance to become a very rich person courtesy of FanDuel.com.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano had a rather astonishing season in 2012 as he knocked in 108 run while going deep 32 times in a season, impressive enough to pick up a 6th place vote in the NL MVP (for more on that see Around the Horn – Awards). Did you see that coming? Be honest, you didn’t. I know because I took a lot of heat for drafting Soriano in the NL LABR draft. Here are some quotes from my Player Profile on Soriano written before last season.

“Alfonso Soriano gets no respect. He gets dogged for not producing a strong batting average, for not stealing bases anymore, and for being vastly overpaid. Even with all of that, I’m still here to tell you that Soriano might just be a strong draft day add because everyone is so down on the former 40/40 man from the Cubs that he could very easily represent a solid value add… Grab Soriano as your 5th outfielder and watch him rack up the homers and the RBI.”

I was right on wasn’t I? That being said, I have to admit to being surprised that Soriano had as much success as he had. Soriano went deep 32 times, his highest total in five years. What makes that number even more impressive is the fact that he went all of April without a home run. Moreover, Soriano didn’t hit his first home run until May 15th in his 31st game. Think about that. He gave away roughly a fifth of the season and still hit 32 homers. His total of 108 RBIs was his highest total since 2005 when he had 104 RBIs. In fact, Soriano actually set a new career best with those 108 RBIs (he has one other 100 RBI seasons with 102 in 2002). No one could have predicted a career best in his 12th full season. Soriano scored only 68 runs, not a strong total for a guy who knocked himself in 32 times, but it was still a four year high in runs scored. Soriano even had a four year high in batting average at .262, though that number is obviously not going to do any fantasy squad any good. Finally, Soriano stole six bags, a pathetic total for a guy who has swiped 40 bags on three occasions and who for 8-straight years swiped at least 18 bases. Still, it was a three year high (he stole seven bases in 2010-11). All in all Soriano had an extremely impressive season given his draft day cost and expectations.

Let’s not go overboard with the praise though. Let me take that back. Praise Soriano for what he accomplished in 2012, but realize that the chances of a repeat from the 37 year old outfielder in 2013 is small. Despite all the recent bests that Soriano posted and were enumerated above, there is also the fact that he appeared in 150 games (151 actually) for the first time since 2006. Expecting a repeat there is asking for trouble with the aging vet. Therefore, even if he somehow repeated his rates from last season in 2013, chances are pretty solid that a regression in his counting category numbers is in the offing. Next up is the fact that he hit .262 last season, .011 points below his career mark. He got on base at a .322 clip, one point below his career number. He had a .499 SLG, a four year high, but still six points below his career mark. None of that points to anything to get excited about. Soriano also had a K-rate of 24.9 percent. We all know he isn’t afraid to strike out, but that number was his highest full season mark ever, and four percentage points clear of his career rate. That’s not exactly a good sign for a guy whose bat speed is slowing with age. Counter to that are his .303 BABIP and 20.4 percent line drive rate, both marks four year bests. It’s a pretty fair bet both of those numbers recede at least a bit in 2013. It’s also not a good bet that Soriano will repeat his 17.8 percent HR/F rate, the second best mark of his career (he posted an 18.3 mark in 2006).

Soriano had a great 2012 effort. Pat him on the back for that. If you took my advice and drafted him you reaped the rewards. However, we’re now looking ahead to 2013 and Soriano does not represent the same value. Some will elevate his outlook based on his ’12 effort, so he represents less of a draft day steal. Also, he’s a year older and coming off a season that, for a variety of reasons mentioned above, is unlikely to be repeated. I would look at his 2010 levels of production (.258-24-79-67-5) if trying to set expectations for the coming season.
By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: November 19, 2012 – Awards

(1) Buster Posey the runaway winner of the NL MVP Award.

(2) Why did Miguel Cabrera dominate Mike Trout in AL MVP voting?

(3) Why did R.A. Dickey dominate in NL Cy Young Voting?

(4) David Price defeated Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver for the AL Cy Young.

(5) Bryce Harper narrowly edged Wade Miley for NL ROY.

(6) Mike Trout the 8th unanimous winner for AL ROY.

(7) Oddities in voting. Who are some of these voters?

BBWAA – Award Info.

By Ray Flowers

Review: NL LABR

The worst team of all-time.

The worst ever drafted.

How could I possibly be considered an expert drafting this team?

I heard some variance of the above in emails, in tweets, on my show on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. I heard it from everyone. E V E R Y O N E. I left money on the table (a mistake I owned up to in my review of the draft). I had a corner infielder – Derrek Lee – who didn’t take an at-bat all season. I had Placido Polanco have the worst season of his career. So how did the worst team ever drafted turn out? With three days left in the season the team was tied for first place…

Wilin Rosario, who drew a ton of heat for my $8 bid, blasted 28 long balls with 71 RBIs in a dominating season.

Garrett Jones socked 27 long balls with 86 RBIs – both career bests (the runs batted in tied his total from 2010).

Daniel Murphy did exactly what I expected him to do (.291-6-65-62-10) while qualifying at multiple spots.

Rafael Furcal had 477 at-bats, a three year high. He wasn’t great, but he was pretty solid (.264-5-49-69-12).

Chris Nelson, who I was made fun of mercilessly for drafting, hit .301 with nine homers and 53 RBIs.

So much for my infield being “pathetic” as most thought.

As I said after the draft, the strength of my team was always going to be my outfield. And it was.

Andrew McCutchen: Should finish near the top of the NL MVP voting thanks to his out of sight effort that included a .327 batting average, 31 homers, 96 RBIs, 107 runs scored and 20 steals.

Dexter Fowler: Hit .300 with 13 homers, 12 steals, 53 RBIs and 72 runs scored.

Alfonso Soriano: 32 HRs, 108 RBIs. I was laughed at for drafting him.

Carlos Quentin: 16 HRs, 46 RBIs. Knew he would be hurt, but 86 games was a 5-year low. If only he had gotten to 115…

Chris Young: Worst season of his career hitting .231-14-41-36-8 from a player who averaged 24 HRs, 81 RBIs, 92 runs and 25 steals in 2010-11. He was literally half the player in 2012 that he had been the previous two years.

Nate McLouth: Even though it’s an NL-only league, you can hold on to players who are dealt to the other league. I held on to him all year and that really paid off in the end as he took off with the Orioles (.268-7-18-35-12 in a mere 55 games).

How was the club on the hill?

Madison Bumgarner: 16 wins, 3.37 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 191 Ks
Tommy Hanson: 13-10, 4.48 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 161 Ks
Wandy Rodriguez: 12-13, 3.76 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 139 Ks
Gio Gonzalez: 21-8, 2.89 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 207 Ks
Jeff Samardzija: 9-13, 3.81 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 180 Ks

Rafael Betancourt: 2.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 31 saves
Sergio Romo: 1.79 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 14 saves
Luke Gregerson: 2.39 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 9 saves

Reserve picks – Two played out.

Ross Detwiler: 10 wins, 3.40 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 105 Ks
Logan Forsythe: .283, 6 HRs, 8 SBs, 45 runs

So how did it all turn out?

CONGRATS: Steve Moyer of Baseball Info Solutions who won the league.

FINAL RESULT: 2/13. I couldn’t catch Steve but turns out the worst team in the history of fantasy baseball, the team I dubbed the Little Engine That Could, almost brought it home. So there everyone.

By Ray Flowers

The Final Day

It’s a sad day for many in the world of baseball as this is the final day of the regular season. Hopefully your team is in the playoff mix, and your fantasy team still has something to play for on this final day of the 2012 regular season.

Miguel Cabrera is on the cusp of the Triple Crown which would be the first since Carl Yastrzemski in 1967. Cabrera has a seven point lead over Mike Trout in the batting race (.331 to .324), a one homer lead over Josh Hamilton (44 to 43), and an 11 RBI lead over Hamilton (139 to 128). Cabrera also leads the AL in SLG (.608) and OPS (1.002) and as great as Trout has been, that’s going to be hard for him to overcome when ballots are cast for the AL MVP Award.

Clayton Kershaw (hip) will make his final start today even though the Dodgers have been eliminated from the playoffs (the Dodgers went 32-31 after they picked up Hanley Ramirez, 29-27 after they added Shane Victorino, and 17-18 after they brought to town Adrian Gonzalez). Why? He’s chasing the Cy Young Award. Currently first in the NL in ERA (2.58) and WHIP (1.03) he needs 10 Ks to pass R.A. Dickey (230) for the NL lead in strikeouts as he chases his 14th victory. Even if he gets there I would bet that either Dickey or Gio Gonzalez wins the award given how the voters have traditionally cast their ballots.

Buster Posey pushed his average up to .337, .010 points clear of Andrew McCutchen for the NL Lead. Posey will obviously ended the year as the leader in the NL and it seems quite likely that he will also lead baseball in batting average. Of course, that’s not really accurate as Melky Cabrera hit .346 this season but MLB took the easy way out and removed him from consideration for the award to save face by changing the rule book mid season to remove from consideration players that were suspended for PED use.

I still can’t believe it, but Jimmy Rollins went 20/20 this season from June 1st on.

Carlos Ruiz had one hell of a season that was marred by injury. Each of the past two years he had hit better than .280, and he always walked as many times as he struck out, but that doesn’t come close to explaining his .326 batting average, especially since he posted a career worst 0.58 BB/K ratio (it was 1.00 or better the previous four seasons). At the same time, I can’t decide if the batting average or the power output was the bigger surprise. Having never hit more than nine homers in a season, and totaling 14 the past two years, Ruiz somehow went out and hit 16 bombs this year. The fact that he more than doubled his HR/F ratio this season was the reason, especially since he had a four year low in his fly ball rate. Don’t overdraft him next season – he’s not hitting .326 or going deep 16 times again.

Just for the hell of it. Who says beautiful women and baseball don’t go together?

Think you had a rough Tuesday? James Shields tossed a nine inning complete game… and lost. If that wasn’t bad enough, he authored one of the greatest complete game loses in baseball history. Shields allowed just one run in the game, two hits, and didn’t walk a batter. He also struck out a Rays’ all-time record 15 batters in the outing (no one has noticed, but Shields will end the year with 223 Ks which right now is tied with King Felix for fourth in baseball). That outing by Shields enabled him to become the first pitcher of the modern era, since 1900, to strikeout 15 batters without walking one with 15 or more strikeouts and just one run allowed.

What’s more surprising – Chase Headley knocking in 113 runs, Alfonso Soriano platting 108 or Justin Upton sitting at 67 RBIs?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 19, 2012

(1) Ian Kinsler a dynamic option at second base.

(2) What do Chase Headley, Ryan Braun and Alfonso Soriano have in common?

(3) Yonder Alonso streaking at the dish.

(4) Tim Lineceum turned his season around.

(5) Erick Aybar producing in the average and steals columns.

(6) Orioles call up phenom Dylan Bundy.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 5, 2012

(1) Ryan Vogelsong struggling for Giants.

(2) Kenley Jansen to return in September.

(3) Zack Greinke finally finding his groove with Angels.

(4) Andrew McCutchen back on track. Can he hold off Melky Cabrera?

(5) Adam LaRoche big time run producer.

(6) Jesus Montero solid in 2nd half.

(7) Alfonso Soriano powering the ball.

(8) Mark Reynolds also powering the ball.

By Ray Flowers

Trade Day Diary

The 2012 MLB Trade Deadline is upon us. At BaseballGuys.com there’s no way we could sit out the action which figures to be hot and heavy. We’ll be checking in throughout the day with some thoughts on all of the moves that you need to be made aware of as teams begin to set themselves up for the push for the playoffs.

COMPLETED DEALS

Dodgers Receive: Shane Victorino
Phillies Receive: RHP’s Josh Lindblom, Ethan Martin

The Dodgers get a much needed bat to his at the top of their order. An outfield of Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Victorino is the best trio in the NL. Victorino has had a bit of an up and down season but he’s been on top of his game since the All-Star break hitting .357 with five steals and 14 runs scored in 15 games. As a side note. The Phillies are going to call up Domonic Brown, so look for him to get a chance to play almost every day the rest of the way giving him solid value in NL-only leagues.

Rangers Receive: Geovanny Soto
Cubs Receive: RHP Jacob Brigham and some other stuff
(that “stuff” is either a PTBNL or cash).

Soto will slide into a backup job behind the dish since the Rangers already have Mike Napoli. Soto hasn’t hit since 2010, well he hit 17 homers and had 54 RBIs last year, but he also batted .228 last year and isn’t even hitting .200 this year with 35 hits in 176 at-bats (.199). He’ll obviously hold some AL-only value, but his days of even being a catcher #2 in 15 team, two catcher, mixed leagues appear done… at least for 2012. As a result of this deal the Rangers designated Yorvit Torrealba for assignment.

Dodgers Receive: Brandon League
Mariners Receive: RHP Logan Bawcom and OF Leon Landry

League obviously won’t be closing with Kenley Jansen already in town, but he should slide in very nicely in a support role in the Dodgers bullpen given that heavy, an I mean 16 lbs bowling ball heavy, fastball. Still, he’s sporting a 1.42 K/BB ratio in 44.2 innings, so I’m not a huge fan of dumping a lot of FAAB money to add him to an NL-only roster.

Phillies Receive: OF Nate Schierholtz, C Tommy Joseph, RHP Seth Rosin
Giants Receive: Hunter Pence and Cash

It’s about time the Giants added another power bat. Pence-Posey-Sandoval, when all healthy, finally gives the Giants a legitimate 3-4-5 set of bats in the middle of the order. The move to San Francisco doesn’t figure to help Pence much offensively though… or does it? The perception is that Philly is a great hitters park but check out the numbers which tell a different story. At home in 2012 Pence has a .721 OPS that is .121 below his .842 mark on the road.

Rangers Receive: Ryan Dempster
Cubs Receive: RHP Kyle Hendricks, 3B Christian Villanueva

The Cubs were in on Matt Garza too, but they deemed Dempster to be the better medical risk. Going to the AL to pitch in Texas isn’t going to do Dempster’s ratios any favors, not when he doesn’t deserve them in the first place. Still, it’s well worth spending big in AL-only leagues to acquire his services. As a result of his addition the mightily struggling Roy Oswalt has been sent to the bullpen, though the club might still need his services as a starter at some point after the club also announced that Neftali Feliz will have to undergo Tommy John surgery.

Reds Receive: Jonathan Broxton
Royals Receive: LHP Donnie Joseph, RHP J.C. Sulbaran

As a set up man with the Reds, Broxton’s fantasy value is in the total toilet. Given the massive regression in his K/9 this year there is no reason to bother having him on your roster in a mixed league unless you are looking for holds. Broxton should form a tremendous bridge to Aroldis Chapman alongside Sean Marshall. In KC, it seems like Aaron Crow or Greg Holland will be asked to close, though Kelvin Herrera is also in the mix. My money is on Holland.

Yankees Receive: Casey McGehee
Pirates Receive: Chad Qualls

McGehee will help to fill in while A-Rod misses time on the shelf. Hitting just .230 on the year with eight homers, the last time that McG was an impactful hitter for an extended period of time was 2010 when he hit .285 with 23 homers and 104 RBIs. Qualls may not even be worth adding in NL-only leagues.

Pirates Receive: Gaby Sanchez
Marlins Receive: Gorkys Hernandez, RHP Kyle Kaminska, a 2013

Sanchez hit .273 with 18 homers, 85 RBIs and 72 runs scored in 2010. Last year he hit .266 with 19 homers, 78 RBIs and 72 runs scored. This year he’s been hideous appearing in only 55 big league games (he’s spent a lot of time in the minors). In 183 at-bats Sanchez has hit .202 with three homers. A worthwhile gamble for the Pirates, but don’t expect much production the reest of this season.

Red Sox Receive: Craig Breslow
D’backs Receive: Scott Podsednik, Matt Albers 

The Sox sent out two spare parts for lefty who has been a very solid bullpen arm since entering the league in 2005. He’s enjoy a fine season this year with a 2.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 3.23 K/BB ratio. None of these three is worth a look in anything other than league specific setups

Cardinals Receive: Edward Mujica
Marlins Receive: 3B Zack Cox

One more name removed for 9th inning work with the Marlins. Mujica had a 2.96 ERA in 67 games last season but his 6.00 K/9 mark is his lowest since 2007 and he continues to be plagued by the long ball. Cox was a first round selection in 2010, but he’s struggled to find consistency. This year he has hit a mere .254 with nine homers and an OPS of .716 at Triple-A.

NOT TRADED: Rafael Betancourt, Stephen Drew, Chase Headley, Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Denard Span, Justin Upton

 By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June6, 2012

(1) Alex Avila headed to DL with hamstring injury.

(2) Colby Rasmus blows up – can he be trusted?

(3) Andy Pettitte dominating batters. Can it continue?

(4) Carlos Quentin is Babe Ruth?

(5) Huston Street returns to action.

(6) Alfonso Soriano flashing power bat. Did you notice?

(7) What to do with the perpetually disappointing Tim Lincecum?

By Ray Flowers

LABR: An Experts Take

The League of Alternative Baseball Reality, or LABR for short, just completed the 19th draft in the history of the event (12 experts drafted in the American League, and 13 in the National League, this past weekend in Phoenix). I was graciously invited to the NL-only draft, thank you to Steve Gardner for that (you can read Steve’s thoughts on the draft in this piece), and though my team has been roundly lambasted since the drafts completion I still had a great time at the event and look forward to the marathon that is the baseball season. Before I offer some thoughts on the draft, here’s who I was able to roster on my squad (for a look at the entire auction here is a Google Doc with all the selections).

C: Wilin Rosario ($8), David Ross (2)
1B: Garret Jones (10)
2B: Daniel Murphy (17)
3B: Placido Polanco (10)
SS: Rafael Furcal (12)
MI: Chris Nelson (4)
CI: Derrek Lee (3)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (33), Dexter Fowler (19), Chris Young (20), Alfonso Soriano (10), Carlos Quentin (13)
UT: Nate McLouth (4)

PITCHERS: Madison Bumgarner (19), Tommy Hanson (14), Rafael Betancourt (16), Wandy Rodriguez (10), Gio Gonzalez (13), Sergio Romo (6), Luke Gregerson (3), Takashi Saito (2), Jeff Samardzija (1), Erik Surkamp (1)

BENCH: Ross Detwiler, Rick Ankiel, Blake DeWitt, Tom Gorzelanny, Logan Forsythe, J.D. Drew

Some general notes.

In this league trading is allowed. That might be something I will need to explore to bolster some areas of weakness.

There is an odd quirk in LABR. All players that were drafted at the auction table need to be in your active roster. The only want to remove a player from your lineup is if he is placed on the DL or demoted to the minors, or of course you can always just cut a player. However, if Dexter Fowler is hitting .199 in April I can’t just put him on the bench, he has to remain active (Chris Liss of Rotowire.com won the AL-Only league last year despite having to hold on to Adam Dunn all year).

As for my team…

Yes I left money on the table, and yes that was a mistake. I’d pinpoint two areas where I should have spent more. (1) I should have added Aaron Hill up the middle. I backed out at $14 and Wolf/Colton rostered him for $15. If I had gotten Hill the last quarter of my team would have looked different, but I certainly could have used him given my lack of infield strength. (2) I should have gone the extra dollar on either Ryan Dempster or Ricky Nolasco who went for $9. Could have also gone the extra dollar on Chris Volstad who I let go (maybe a few bucks to Roy Oswalt would have been nice too). Everyone who follows my work knows I’m a fan of both. Instead, I ended up with Erik Surkamp as my final starter.

Everyone is bashing me for my weak infield, and I can certainly see why there is concern. A big key for me is obviously what happens with Derrek Lee. If he signs with someone a 20 homer, 70 RBI season would be huge for my club. However, he might retire, he might end up in the AL or he might end up playing as a part timer in the NL. People have also questioned my catchers, and with good reason. But to be fair, catchers were going for some pretty high dollar amounts. Would you have paid $10 for Jonathan Lucroy, $8 for Ryan Hanigan or $5 for Jason Castro? Maybe, maybe not, right? Another key is the health of Rafael Furcal and Placido Polanco. If they play 135 games each then this situation looks a lot better. If they don’t, look out below.

Is the infield weak? Yes it is, but I think some have overlooked the strength of my outfield. For my money, it’s the best group in the league. There might be valid concerns with Alfonso Soriano and Carlos Quentin, but if the both hit 25 homers with 80 RBIs, as my 4th and 5th outfielders in an NL-only league, that’s pretty damn good. Chris Young might hit .240, but he’s also been a 20/20 guy three of the last five years while averaging 91 runs scored a season the past two years. At this point everyone knows I’m on the Dexter Fowler train, I might be the conductor, but I really have high hopes for him putting it all together for a full season. And then there is Andrew McCutchen who is a wonderful foundational building block.

On the hill, I love my top-4 arms: MadBum, Hanson, Wandy and Gonzalez. I took a risk on Hanson, but I thought at $14 it was worth it even with the health concerns. As for Gio, I’m shocked I got him actually. I threw him out there for $13 fully expecting him to go for at least $18. Ten seconds later he was part of my team. Funny thing, after the :10 seconds of silence when no one pushed his bid up I then heard three teams at the table say that he was a great buy.

I overpaid for Rafael Betancourt at $16. This was another mistake I made – i.e. I waited to long to jump into the closer mix. I incorrectly thought that people would grow weary of paying $15 for every closer that was thrown out for bid. They didn’t. At the point I added Betancourt he was the only legitimate closer left on the board other than a guy like Frank Francisco, so I was forced to overpay to add Rafael who has elite skills but has never shown the ability to work the 9th inning before the last month of 2012. I should have jumped into the closer mix earlier – I might have saved a few bucks.

In the end, the truth is every team in an NL-only league with 13 clubs is going to have holes. Hopefully things break right for me an I’m in contention late. If not, I’ll review all the correct an incorrect decisions I made over the course of the season and come back even more prepared in 2013.

By Ray Flowers