Player Profile: Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano gets no respect. He gets dogged for not producing a strong batting average, for not stealing bases anymore, and for being vastly overpaid. Even with all of that, I’m still here to tell you that Soriano might just be a strong draft day add because everyone is so down on the former 40/40 man from the Cubs that he could very easily represent a solid value add. The facts.

(1) Soriano has hit .241, .258 and .244 the past three years. Among players with at least 1,500 plate appearances the last three seasons Soriano’s .248 batting average is 117th behind guys like Yuniesky Bentancourt (.252) and Jose Lopez (.250).

(2) Soriano has stolen all of 16 bases the past three years. From 2001-2008 Soriano swiped at least 19 bases each season.

(3) Soriano signed an 8-year deal for $136 million in 2006. He’s owned $18 million each of the next three years. Think of it this way. He’s the hitting version of Barry Zito (the Giants pitcher is owed $39 million the next two years with an $18 million club option or a $7 million buyout for 2014).

So why in the world am I bothering to waste my valuable time writing about Soriano? Here’s why.

(1) Soriano has hit at least 20 homers each season since 2002. Even the last four years when Soriano has failed to record 500 at-bats in a single season, he’s still had efforts of 29, 20, 24 and 26 homers. Among outfielders who have played in the National League Soriano’s total of 99 homers is fifth just one homer behind Jay Bruce for the fourth spot (Ryan Braun had 127, Matt Kemp 111 and Jayson Werth 107). Even if we add in all outfielders regardless of league Soriano’s mark of 99 homers is still tied for 8th beset with Matt Holliday and Josh Hamilton.

(2) Soriano has posted at least 75 RBI in three of the past four seasons. He’s also racked up 75 RBI in eight of the last 10 seasons. Moreover, Soriano’s total of 88 RBI last year was one more than Giancarlo Stanton, six more than Dan Uggla and Brandon Phillips, and 13 more than Matt Holliday. Heck, it was only one less than Andrew McCutchen’s total of 89 and it was the same total as Justin Upton’s 88.

(3) Soriano, according to MockDraftCentral, is going off the board as the 83rd outfielder at 238th overall. I may be off my rocker here, but Soriano is going behind guys like Raul Ibanez (232), Chris Heisey (233), Domonic Brown (236) and Jason Bay (237). Does that seem right to you? Ibanez is likely to be a part-time DH with the Yankees. Heisey looks like a 4th outfielder in Cincinnati now that the Reds have signed Ryan Ludwick. Brown is likely to spend at least half the year in Triple-A (see the comments by GM Ruben Amaro Jr. who suggested that Brown could spend the entire 2012 season in the minors). Bay has hit 18 homers with 104 RBI the last two seasons while hitting .251. You really want all four of those guys before Soriano?

I’m not saying Soriano is a superstar, or that he’s a building block – he is not. However, I do think that he is being overlooked, and the data supports me. Soriano isn’t an option to help in the average or stolen base columns, but lots of players we roster in the fantasy game have deficiencies. However, when you just look at what Soriano did last season you are smacked in the face with the fact that only 14 outfielders in the game hit at least 25 homers with 85 RBI last season. Given that he is going off the board in the 80′s at the outfield position on draft day, you have to see my point right? Grab Soriano as your 5th outfielder and watch him rack up the homers and the RBI… at least he’s still good for that.

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By Ray Flowers

Matt Kemp – Visions of Glory

“I believe in myself to the most,” said Matt Kemp. “I have confidence I can achieve it. I try to set my expectations as high as I can. I think I’m capable of doing it.” What is Kemp claiming he is capable of doing? No it’s nothing as grand as solving the mysteries of Stonehenge, nor is he talking about getting back together with his famous ex Rihanna. No, Matt Kemp was saying that he thinks he could go 50/50 this year – 50 homers and 50 steals.

“It speaks to his confidence and his self-awareness,” GM Ned Colletti said. “Even if he doesn’t make it, it doesn’t mean it’s wrong. It tells me about how he feels about his game. It tells me what he thinks about who he is.” (For the full report see Tim Brown’s article on Yahoo. By the way, if you want to play fantasy baseball this year, Yahoo Sports is a great place to sign up to play). I don’t know if I share Colletti’s vision here, but here are the facts as I see them.

1- Kemp is a supremely talented player who was one homer away from going 40/40 last year.

2- Kemp has nearly gone 20/20 each of the past four years (he missed out by two homers in 2008 and by one steal in 2010). The last four years he has averaged 28 homers and 32 steals. That’s nearly 30/30 for four years folks. Impressive.

3- Kemp has been as healthy as they come. Each of the past four years he has appeared in at least 155 games with between 602 and 606 at-bats in each season.

All of that information points to Kemp being an elite performer (duh). However, history is against Kemp and the potential run to 50/50. No one has ever done it. Ever. Only four men have ever gone 40/40: Jose Canseco in 1988, Barry Bonds in 1996, Alex Rodriguez in 1998 and Alfonso Soriano in 2006. Remember, Kemp was just a homer short of joining the club last season so he was close. Does that mean he could go 50/50? What would it take for Kemp to get to those numbers besides health and an unwavering need to concentrate for virtually every moment he was on the field in 2012?

Kemp hit 39 homers last year in 161 games. That equates to one homer every 4.13 games. If he appeared in 161 games again in 2012 he would need to hit a homer every 3.22 games. That’s a  significant increase an one that he wouldn’t likely to be able to maintain over the course of a season no matter how much faith he has in his abilities (his 40.5 percent fly ball rate last year was a career best but his 37.4 percent career mark is just big league average).

Kemp stole 40 bases last year in 161 games. That equates to a steal every 4.03 games. If he appeared in 161 games in 2012 he would need to steal a base every 3.22 games. That’s a rather significant increase an one that would be almost impossible to maintain. Let’s not forget that every time that Kemp goes deep that’s one more time that he doesn’t have the chance to steal a base. An increase of 10 homers might lead you to say ‘but Ray, we’re only talking about 10 plate appearances,’ an if you said that you would be right. At the same time, he’s going to need every last plate appearance if he is going to squeeze out 50 steals.

Is Kemp going to thumb his nose at history and do something that no one else in the history of the game has every done? An elite athlete with immense talent, Kemp is in the prime of his career and never misses games. On the flip side he hits in a ball yard that favors pitchers and has little protection in the Dodgers batting order. Kemp also has only one season of 30 homers in his career and he has just one effort of more than 35 steals. Clearly Kemp has full confidence in himself, but it would be foolish to think that he could reach the lofty numbers that he says he is capable of producing in 2012.

For thoughts on how Kemp is being viewed by Fleaflicker click on the link.

By Ray Flowers

One Day Left

With one day left in the season, and so much left to be decided with the Rays/Sox and Braves/Cards tied for the Wild Card, you gotta love it. I hope the Rays and Cards make it. Just my personal preference.

Adam Dunn is having one of the worst seasons in the history of baseball. He was threatening to become just the second player ever, Rob Deer is the lucky winner, to have a batting average that is less than the players strikeout total. Oh Dunn has that trick pulled off with 177 punchouts and a .159 average, but it won’t officially be recognized because he is a handful of plate appearances below the number needed (502) to qualify for the batting title. In addition to that dreadful bit of news, Dunn has also lost one of the most impressive homer streaks in league history. From 2004-10, Dunn hit at least 38 homers in every season. This year he’s scored 36 runs. I don’t know what to say other than this is, like I wrote at the top, one of the worst performances in the history of baseball.

Matt Garza is one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. He only went 10-10 in his first year in the NL, but he did strike out a career best 197 batters in 198 innings. Garza has made at least 30 starts and thrown at least 184.2 innings each of the past four years. Even more than that, look at his BAA marks – .245, .233, .248 and .245. How about his WHIP you say? I thought you would never ask – 1.24, 1.26, 1.25 and 1.26. I’m not making that up. Check it out.

Micah Owing is 8-0 as a reliever for the D’backs (he did make four starts). Bartolo Colon made 26 starts for the Yankees and recorded only eight wins.

Brandon Phillips is one hell of a ballplayer. He’ll end the 2011 season, he has a strained left quad, hitting .300 with 18 homers, 82 RBI, 94 runs scored and 14 steals. Since he joined the Reds in 2006 he’s tied for 4th at the position with 124 homers, he is 4th with 486 RBI, he’s 5th with 524 runs scored and 3rd with 135 steals. Like I said, he’s a hell of a ballplayer.

Jimmy Rollins would like to sign a 5-year contract this offseason to take him through his 38 year old season. I don’t know if anyone will give him that long a deal, but he proved he still has a lot left to give after an injury plagued 2010 season (Rollins has 16 homers, 63 RBI, 87 runs and 30 steals in 141 games for the Phillies). He’s also hit .271, a three year high. Moreover, for the 7th straight time in which he’s appeared in 135 games he stole 30 bags with 10 homers, 50 RBI and 75 runs. Those aren’t fantastic numbers, but for a shortstop they are strong.

Alfonso Soriano was nowhere near as bad as Adam Dunn, but it’s not like he hasn’t had some issues of his own in 2011. Soriano has hit 26 homers with 88 RBI, solid totals for the Cubs’ outfielder. Here is where it gets interesting. Soriano is hitting a terrible .244, and given that he has walked a mere 27 times, his OBP this season is a sickly .289. As a result of not getting on base very often, and the fact that 81 percent of his at-bats have come out of the 6th and 7th spots in the lineup, Soriano has scored only 50 runs. I’ll save you a trip to the calculator. That means Soriano has scored 52 percent of his runs on his own home runs.

By Ray Flowers

On the Cusp

You remember back in April when Kay Adams bet me that Willie Bloomquist would steal at least 26 bases this season, one more than his career best? Willie ain’t gonna make it. What a shock. Bloomquist has 19 steals on the year, only 12 after the month of April, and for the first time ever he has been caught more than six times with 10 CS. @heykayadams on Twitter better get ready to sing that Neil Diamond song and to make that video she promised she would if she lost.

Melky Cabrera has 18 homers and 20 steals. So the team will push him hard the final couple of days to give him a shot at 20/20, right? Wrong. The Royals have already said that as soon as he gets to 200 hits that they will shut him down to give others some playing time. Cabrera has 199 hits making his dream of 20/20 likely nothing more than a pipe dream. Don’t worry Royals’ fans. Jeff Francoeur pulled off the 20/20 trick with 20 homers and 22 steals. That outing was shocking given that the last time he hit 20 homers was 2006, and that he had never swiped more than eight bases in a season. Since I mentioned both of those Royals outfielders, why not mention the third as well. Alex Gordon had the breakout season that was long predicted of him as he hit .303 with 23 homers, 87 RBI, 101 runs and 17 steals. How good was that trio of outfielders? Their average 5×5 line was .297-20-87-91-20. How amazing is that?

Albert Pujols is trying to extend his major league record run of .300-30-100 to 11-straight seasons. He’s already at 37 homers, but after going 0-for-7 the past two days his average has dipped to an even .300. He’ll need to keep the hits coming while knocking in two runs to extend his streak (he has 98 RBI on the year). He’s also scored at least 100 runs in 10 of 11 seasons. The one time he missed was 2007 when he scored 99 times.

Ben Zobrist has had an uneven season no doubt, but in the end he has been highly productive. The question now is will he get to some significant statistical milestones this year. He has 19 homers, 89 RBI, 97 runs and 20 steals. A big final couple of days could give him a 20-90-100-20 season. Since 2000, there have only been three players in the AL East who have reached all four of those totals in one season: Alex Rodriguez did it three times, Alfonso Soriano twice, and Bobby Abreu once.

Last week in Exclusive Clubs, I listed a whole bunch of players with unique power/speed combos. With three days left in the season, there have been some changes.

Jacoby Ellsbury went deep three times the last two days for the Red Sox and he now has 31 homers and 38 steals. What a bounce back season.

Matt Kemp has 37 homers and 40 steals. He could, could, sneak into the 40/40 club.

Ian Kinsler went deep twice in the last four games and he also swiped four bases. That leaves him one steal from a second 30/30 effort in three seasons.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 7, 2011

(1)  Albert Pujols on cusp of history – yet again.

(2) Stephen Strasburg phenomenal in his first start with Nats.

(3) V-Mart mighty impressive, minus the homers.

(4) Ian Kinsler trying to do something only one other 2B has ever done.

(5) Alex Rios – worth a play in the month of September?

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: May 3, 2011

photo © 2010 Mike LaChance | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Looking to buy low and sell high. Would you trade Alfonso Soriano and Luke Scott for Carl Crawford or Carlos Gonzalez?
– @cladiusnoster

Everyone is talking about how awful Carl Crawford (.181-1-7-7-4) and Hanley Ramirez (.191-1-11-11-3) have performed but we haven’t heard many roundly criticizing the performance of CarGo (.232-1-14-13-3). It’s really pointless to talk about projections this early in the year so I won’t other than to say Gonzalez is light years from the top-5 performer he was last year (.336-34-117-111-26). Hitting just .143 in 49 road at-bats this year, CarGo still hasn’t figured out how to hit on the road (career: .260/.307/.405). Given his slow start, and his career long struggles on the road you might have to admit that he has no chance to repeat his numbers from last year. Still, both he and Crawford simply have to improve upon what they are doing – they’re far too talented not to. And speaking of Crawford, check this out. Crawford’s .431 OPS for April was the worst month of his career. Here are the yearly lows, for a month of time, for his career.

2010: .683 in August
2009: .708 in April
2008: .655 in July
2007: .660 in June
2006: .695 in April
2005: .683 in May
2004: .706 in August
2003: .553 in April

So the good news with Carl is twofold. First, he’s never had a month remotely as bad as the one he just completed so it doesn’t figure that his performance will continue along these lines. Second, his .708 OPS for the month of April in his career is the worst he has posted for the six full months of the season.

Scott is what he is. The last three years he has bit between 23 and 27 homers, knocked in between 65 and 77 runs and scored 61 to 70 times. Boring but productive. Soriano has been blasting away hitting 11 homers in his first 27 games. Still, he’s hitting only .267 this year, hasn’t hit .285 since 2007 and has just five steals in his last 174 games played. He’s a solid power bat and one with more upside than Scott, but he isn’t going to hit 45 homers this year.

So to answer the question, if I could trade two solid bats in Scott/Soriano and get back an elite level talent like Crawford or Gonzalez I’d do it.

Should I pick up Scott Sizemore to replace Gordon Beckham?
– @ryanmully

Shockingly Carlos Guillen is still on the shelf with a knee injury.
Will Rhymes has hit .221 with a .556 OPS in 68 at-bats.
Second base is a black hole of offense for the Tigers.

Down at Triple-A the Tigers had a guy who was hitting .408 with 15 RBI and 17 runs scored in 23 games. Huh. So what did the brilliant brain trust in Detroit do? They said to themselves ‘maybe we should call up this guy who is hitting like Ty Cobb.’ Hello Scott Sizemore. Considering how amazing he has been at Triple-A and how awful the offense has been in the bigs, it’s shocking it took this long. I’m not just talking about the month of April this year with Sizemore either. In 667 at-bats at Triple-A Sizemore has hit .315 with 19 homers, 85 RBI, 115 runs scored, 19 steals and a .880 OPS. Of course, his numbers in the bigs have failed to impress (.224-3-14-19-3 in 143 at-bats), but those Triple-A numbers are impressive.

Beckham has been one of the bigger fantasy disappointments this season. He’s failed to hit for average (.214) or for power (two homers and five doubles leading to a .320 SLG), isn’t getting on base (.268) and has an abysmal .588 OPS. Maybe it’s time to admit something that most don’t want to admit – Beckham simply isn’t ready to be a difference maker. In 925 big league at bats he’s hit .255 with a .324 OBP and a .405 SLG. The league average since he began his career are .262/.330/.415. That’s right, he hasn’t even been big league average in any of those three measures. Add in the fact that he has just 25 homers and only 12 steals, and this might be one of those situations where your eyes were bigger than your stomach (you know what I’m talking about those of you that always super size everything). Over his last 547 at-bats he’s produced a 5×5 line of .258-11-59-72-5. That’s passable but nothing more.

I’m gonna go out on a limb and say I’d take a shot on Sizemore. He may not be able to transition his Triple-A success to the bigs, and he may not even be starting in three weeks, but there is no question that he is swinging a better bat right now.

I’m starting to lose patience with Austin Jackson. Do you think he’s going to get back on track any time soon?
– @caldevil3219

We’re still on this? Jackson was lucky last year leading baseball with a .396 BABIP. I wrote, probably 13 times this offseason, that there was no way he would be able to sustain that level. Toss in his huge K-rate, it was 27.5 percent, and there was no chance he was gonna hit better than .290 again. This year his average is down at .188 because (a) his BABIP has fallen to .282 and (b) because his K-rate is through the roof at 35.7 percent. Things should improve, in fact by a lot if he doesn’t end up being sent to Triple-A, but there was never a truly realistic shot that he would improve upon his 5×5 numbers from last season.

Thoughts on Ian Stewart for his return to Colorado?
– @gmanesq

It’s funny. Everyone hated Stewart two weeks ago and now everyone want’s to add him because he’s back with the Rockies. Here’s what I see.

(1) Stewart killed it at Triple-A hitting .406 with three homers and 13 RBI in 10 games. That’s what he should do though against the inferior competition.

(2) Stewart had only two hits in 28 at-bats with the Rockies to start the year. You say ‘small sample size” and I agree. Still, the guy has hit .241 in almost 1,150 at-bats in the bigs, so clearly he’s never going to help you in that category.

(3) The guy is a whiff machine. In his career he’s struck out in nearly a third of his at-bats (32.3 percent). You can be Adam Dunn and have success doing that or you can be Mark Reynolds and struggle miserably.

Stewart is what he has always been and what he will always be. When he runs into one the ball will fly into the cheap seats. Unfortunately, he’ll never hit for enough of an average to be an elite option at the hot corner. With Todd Helton playing well at first base, there is a bit of squeeze or at-bats in the infield. If Jose Lopez remembers how to hit, and Ty Wigginton regains his health, it’s not at all certain that Stewart will play every day. Stewart is a fine NL-only option, but he had better be nothing more than your backup third basemen in mixed leagues at the moment.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147 (the stations change to XM87 and Sirius210 on Wednesday).

K-BAD 2011: PART III

In Part III of my review of the K-BAD experts draft at KFFL, I’ll wrap things up by breaking down my final eight selections and then giving a quick review of the squad I assembled. Here are some links that are pertinent to the piece as well.

K-BAD HOMEPAGE

PART I – Selections 1-10
PART II - Selections 11-20.

* Note: All comments were written in real time meaning they were penned right after the choice was made (the draft is a “slow draft” type setup where people have two hours to make a selection as we are all squeezing in the draft during our busy work days).

Round 21-8: Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs
s a 5th outfielder, as long as he is healthy, Soriano should be fine. Looking at the available options, I just didn’t see many who could hit 25 homers while scoring/knocking in 90.

Round 22-5: Gavin Floyd, SP, White Sox
I almost pulled the trigger on Floyd in the 20th round, so I pretty much had to take him in the 22nd. People always seem to neglect Floyd who has been stable, and pretty darn good the past two years.

Round 23-8: Brandon League, RP, Mariners
I’m not at all convinced that David Aardsma will be healthy and/or effective (he’s likely to miss the start of the year coming back from hip surgery). I wrote about this situation in A Hip that Makes You Hop.

Round 24-5: Ryan Doumit, C, Pirates
Honestly, this is a total shot in the dark. He’s the only catcher left on the board who I think could go .270-15-60, though he’ll need a trade to get anywhere close to that. He could be the first player I dump.

Round 25-8: James Loney, 1B, Dodgers
Boring, but I needed a corner infield option, and I certainly didn’t want to take Chipper Jones. Loney has little upside, but he does have 268 RBI the last three years which is, shockingly, seven more than Paul Konerko.

Round 26-5: Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
I wanted to bolster my pitching staff, but there are a handful of starters and relievers still available who I could go with, so I backed up my weakest hitting position by adding this speedster (my other SS is Jason Bartlett).

Round 27-8: Ryan Madson, RP, Phillies
Best pitcher, skill wise, left amongst relievers. Still, I gave heavy consideration to Jake McGee who could close for Rays and Clay Hensley as a handcuff to my ealier selection of Leo Nunez.

Round 28-5: Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres
I wanted to add depth in the outfield with my last pick and also gave a thought to calling out Roger Bernadina, Alex Gordon or David DeJesus (though DD was taken the pick before me).

REPORT CARD

* This team has lots of speed. Pierre should push 50 steals, Upton should get 40, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see McCutchen go for at least 30. I’m also expecting 15 from guys like Utley, Braun, Bartlett and Zobrist. Barring injury, I should win this category.

* My average might be lacking a bit since I took Dunn and Reynolds. Still, they are about as powerful a 1B/3B combo as anyone could hope to have. Yadier Molina usually has a decent average versus other catchers, and Utley, Braun and Kendrick should hit .300 to keep me respectable here – I hope.

* The power of this club is strong. I should get at least 70 bombs from Dunn and Reynolds, and if I don’t get at least 60 from Braun and Utley I’d be surprised. Zobrist, Lee, Upton, McCutchen and Soriano should all also hit 20.

* On the hill, saves are a bit of a question. Soria is a star as my anchor, and Hanrahan was named the Pirates’ closer two days after I drafted him which certainly helps. If Nunez can hold on to his strikeout and ground ball gains from last season, I could have three solid closers. I also expect League to start off as the closer with Aardsma coming back from injury, and Madson is just one pitch away from an injury to Brad Lidge to being called on in the 9th inning for the Phillies.  Maybe this unit isn’t a bad as I thought.

* At the top Sabathia and Hanson are a dynamic 1-2 punch, and I’ll take Billingsley as a #3 in any league. If things come together for Nolasco he will be the best 4th SP in the league, and guys like Baker and Floyd give me a strong top-6. Still, I do regret going against my normal tradition of waiting on pitching. Even though I took two SPs in the first seven rounds I’m not convinced that my team is appreciably better than it would have been if I had waited until the 8th round to take my first hurler.

Every team has a weakness, but overall I really like the way this draft played out. I picked up a bunch of the players that I targeted, so if everyone stays healthy I should be in line for another top-3 finish… but there is a whole of baseball that has to be played before we’ll know for sure how I did.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 1, 2010

(1) Alfonso Soriano to hit 6^th for Cubs.

(2) Troy Glaus says his shoulder is doing well.

(3) Josh Hamilton still dealing with sore shoulder.

(4) Miguel Cabrera quits drinking, ready to mash on field.

(5) Jose Reyes plays/runs with positive results for Mets.

(6) Bobby Jenks – what does 2010 hold in store? You can hear my thoughts in the video and augment that with my Breaking Down: Jenks article.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb 25, 2010

(1) Carl Crawford is no longer negotiating with Rays meaning this is almost assuredly his last season with the club.

(2) Octavio Dotel and Joel Hanrahan receive positive news in regards to their injuries

(3) Adam Dunn working on defense at 1B for Nationals.

(4) Alfonso Soriano reporting that his knee is improving.

(5) Brad Lidge throwing – showing improvement. Still hopes to make opening day.

(6) Francisco Liriano has Twins excited with the return of his “stuff.”

(7) Jose Batista to bat leadoff for Blue Jays – uh oh.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.22, 2010

(1) Johnny Damon finally signs with Tigers: 1-year, $8 million.

(2) Jonny Gomes signs with Reds.

(3) Mets – Jose Reyes to hit third, Carlos Beltran to miss April?Former Met Carlos Delgado has second hip surgery.

(4) Khalil Greene out in Texas. Will the Mike Lowell trade to be revisited?

(5) Rich Harden hopes to make 180 innings with Rangers.

(6) Alfonso Soriano dealing with knee – he is concerned.

(7) Brian Roberts – is his back injury serious?

By Ray Flowers