Mailbag: June7, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you move Justin Upton for Andrew McCutchen in a keeper league?
– @sfavree

If you ask people in the fantasy game, they would have universally told you that prior to the start of this season Upton was the higher ceiling player. Not that anyone was down on McCutchen, it was just that Upton was the guy they would have wanted. So far that hasn’t even been close to being the right call.

Upton: .243-5-20-34-8
McC: .333-10-33-31-10

Small sample size? Well, how about we backtrack to the start of last season.

Upton: .278-36-109-139-29 with a .853 OPS
McC: .277-33-122-118-33 with a .855 OPS

The plot thickens.

I’ll say this.

(1) The numbers say that since the start of last season that these two players are the same player.

(2) Age isn’t a factor. Upton was born in August of 1987, McCutchen was born in October of 1986.

(3) There is no wrong answer to the question of which player is the one you want to build your squad around.

Upton is likely to be the more consistent power threat. If there is a player here who has a chance to lead the league in homers or RBIs, it’s Upton.

McCutchen is likely to be the more consistent base stealing option as the years progress, and that adds substantially to his fantasy value.

Honestly, you can flip a coin. Since I’m all about winning right now, even in a keeper league (more on that below), give me McCutchen who is performing at a higher level this season.

I need some help. Eric Hosmer for Mark Trumbo and Alfredo Aceves in 10 team keeper?
– @will_zme

Keeper leagues always fascinate me. Obviously without knowing all the details of a league it’s pretty difficult to give a 100 percent accurate answer to any such question, but in general you have to ask yourself two main questions: (1) Is the goal to win this season? (2) Are you building to win in the future? I’m of the opinion that if you can win this year, go for it. You don’t know if you’ll even be playing fantasy baseball in three years, and you certainly don’t know if you will still be playing in the same league. Plus, with injuries an the inherent uncertainty of the game, why not go for it when you have a legit shot to hoist the trophy? That said, there is a third level that must be addressed – how many players can you keep and for how long? The answer to any keeper question changes depending on whether you hold three, five, 10 or more players.

If you’re trying to win this season you have to take the duo here. Trumbo has been out of his mind thus far hitting .337 with 12 homers and 31 RBIs. The batting average is a fluke. Trumbo doesn’t hit enough line drives (19 percent) and strikes out too much (22.2 percent) to get a hit every three times he comes to the plate, and he simply won’t be able to sustain his current .387 BABIP. I’d be looking at a significant step back there. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see a minor pullback in his homer rate, but he obviously has 30 homer power so an outright drought isn’t likely.

Aceves had a 10.29 ERA in April before rebounding to post a 2.89 mark in May as he converted eight of nine save chances (here’s a look at his performance over at Fleaflicker). On the season he has an impressive 9.73 K/9 mark, though that number is somehow three batters above his career rate. He’s also walking more batters per nine innings – 3.77 – than any point in his career (2.81 per nine). He’s offset some of that by generating more grounders than ever before leading to an impressive 1.81 GB/FB. He will have to deal with the return of Andrew Bailey at some point, but for now he’s a solid bet to continue to rack up saves even if his performance slips a bit.

Hosmer has hits in 9-straight games and finally appears to be putting his season back together. Hosmer still has a walk rate that is better than last season, his strikeout mark is also lower, and his line drive rate and HR/F ratios are the same as his rookie season. I keep focusing on that .222 BABIP and really think he’s been unfortunate (you can blame the defensive shift that teams are employing against him for some of that too).

I don’t think anyone is going to argue with you that Hosmer is the better keeper than Trumbo, but if you’re looking to win this season I think you should go with the Angel slugger and the Red Sox current closer.

Give Andre Ethier, get Eric Hosmer. Fair? Other team needs outfield help.
– @scotsyl

I wrote above about Hosmer and how I’m a fan of him as well as that I’m expecting him to continue to improve his production. At the same time, I don’t know why you would be offering an established high level producer in the outfield who just so happens to be leading the NL in RBIs at the moment with 46 for him? Makes no sense to me. A career .292 hitter who ironically has hit .292 each of the past two seasons, there’s no reason to expect Ethier to slow down from his current .302 batting average. His .363 OBP is also just one point off his career mark, and the nine homers he currently has put him on pace for about 25 homers, right on the pace he averaged from 2008-10. Add in the fact that you say the other team really needs outfield help – and if they do you need to be low balling them to see how desperate they are – and you’re simply giving up way too much to acquire the Royals young first baseman.

When Emilio Bonifacio returns, who ROTW at SS – Bonifacio, Dee Gordon or Jed Lowrie?
– @JohnnyHoey

Bonifacio will likely be out until the start of July following thumb surgery, so assuming this question begins right after the All-Star break…

Emilio has the advantage of qualifying at third base, shortstop and the outfield, and that versatility it a big time boost to his value. He’s also running wild under Ozzie Guillen with 21 attempt (20 successful) in 39 games. That’s obviously a pace for 80 attempts over the course of a full season, a massive number in this day and age. Given his approach at the dish that includes a career best walk rate, it’s hard to think either of the other two fellas will be able to eclipse his fantasy value if he’s truly healthy.

Gordon wants to be what Bonifacio is. Gordon is hitting .230, and that’s the highest his average has been since May 8th thanks to a five game hitting streak. When you bat that low, you better bring something else to the table. Gordon is on pace for about three homers, 35 RBI and 60 runs scored, all awful totals for a mixed league player. He’s also getting on base at just a .274 clip, and that’s embarrassing for a professional baseball player. Since he never gets on base he’s rarely running so he’s not utilizing his one fantasy asset, and without the stolen bases he’s useless (he has only two steals since May 6th).

Lowrie is the best hitter of the trio, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he is the best fantasy option. May was an impressive month for Lowrie as he had six homers, 14 RBI and 15 runs scored, but that level of production isn’t going to be sustainable for the Astros’ shortstop. A career .258 hitter, Lowrie is batting .283 thanks to the best homer rate of his career as well as the highest line drive rate he’s ever had (22.4 percent). There are seeds of growth here with Lowrie, but he’ll need to avoid two things that have always plagued him – injury and inconsistency.

I’d go with Bonifacio who gives you that versatility and the elite base stealing ability.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. 

Fantasy Frown – Upside Down

How fun is fantasy baseball? Instead of bemoaning the struggles of certain players, why don’t we turn that frown upside down and see if there might be some players who have failed to live up to expectations to this point of the season that might be able to lend a boost to our fantasy squad moving forward. That’s a noble goal is it not? I’ll also talk about a former Cy Young winner who may have finally turned the corner, a reliever you’ve never probably heard of who leads baseball in wins, and a former fantasy superstar who is slowing improving physically in his attempt to come back from a mysterious knee injury.

Daniel Bard picked up his first win of the season Monday night, while pitching out of the bullpen, but he is still currently scheduled to make his start on Friday against the White Sox. The Red Sox though may have no other choice than to slot Bard in as their 9th inning arm (even though Bobby Valentine, the Red Sox manager, said that moving Bard back to the pen full time “doesn’t look like a great temptation.”). Bard has 13 Ks in 12.1 innings this season, but he’s also 1-2 with nine walks allowed an a 1.70 WHIP. Even if he had been successful as a starter, the Sox would still have to consider him for the 9th inning since they just can’t afford to give away games late. Alfredo Aceves, Vincente Padilla, Franklin Morales, Justin Thomas… boy do the Sox miss Andrew Bailey. If Bard is on waivers he’s worth adding in the hope that he’ll be asked to work the 9th greatly improving his fantasy value – even though the Red Sox are currently saying that isn’t going to happen.

Erik Bedard is 0-4 though he does have a 2.62 ERA after allowing three or fewer runs in each of his four starts. Wins may be tough to come by for the lefty in Pittsburgh, but I’ll continue to say it – when healthy he can be a mixed league option worthy of pretty much being an every game starter.

Chipper Jones didn’t start again on Monday. He continues to be a daily disaster, you never know when he’s going to be playing, but he also continues to be might successful when on the field. No only is he hitting .276 with two homers and eight RBI in nine games, but he has a .870 OPS. That’s a better number than guys like Miguel Cabrera (.857), Adrian Beltre (.826), Alex Rodriguez (.800) and Jose Bautista (.771).

Tim Lincecum was much better in his fourth start of the season Monday (5 IP, 1 ER, 8Ks, 5 BBs). I got a chance to watch nearly every pitch he tossed, an I liked what I saw. His pitches were darting all over the strike zone, but he wasn’t locked in as he missed the target on many of the pitches. Still, this was an improvement over the way that he opened up the season, so you have to be feeling pretty good if you didn’t panic and decided to hold on to him (or if you dealt to add him).

Kyle Lohse is up to 3-0 with a 0.99 ERA. I’m still not buying it. No way he continues to hold batters to a .170 batting average, and as impressive as his control was last year (2.01 BB per nine), the man isn’t going to continue to walk one batter every 13 innings. Now is the perfect time to sell high. If you don’t, just make sure you remember me when his performance tanks in relation to his current levels.

Vodka and Red Bull – nectar from the gods? Jeff Mans of Fantasy Alarm would agree.

Vulture wins anyone? Robbie Ross has worked five games covering 5.1 innings. All he’s done is rack up three wins. Do you even know what team he is on? Try the Rangers. This is just another example of why it is virtually impossible to predict wins in the fantasy game – Robbie Fricken’ Ross is tied for the major league lead with three victories.

Chase Utley (knee) did some things Monday, and that included fielding grounders. Though he is said to be feeling stronger and making progress, he also admitted that while BP cause him no discomfort that fielding those grounders was still bothering him. There is no timetable in this continually vexing situation that the Phillies have not been able to clarify in the least (apparently Utley doesn’t want his medical information shared, which is his right of course, but it sure plays havoc with what reasonable expectations should be this year). There’s been some discussion of Utley possibly playing some first base when he comes back, though Jim Thome and Ryan Howard obviously can’t play anywhere else on the diamond. I’ll bet that Utley’s bat still has some juice left in it, but it’s growing harder and harder to hold on to him in 12 team mixed leagues unless you have a DL spot.

Miguel Bautista started Game 1 of the Mets/Giants doubleheader Monday. You remember back in 2005 when, a year after going 10-13 with a 4.85 ERA, that the Blue Jays asked Bautista to close leading to 31 saves? Since then he has four saves — in six years.

By Ray Flowers

What We Learned

The regular season still hasn’t officially gotten underway for all the teams, great scheduling MLB, but that issue will finally be rectified Friday. We do have a fair number of baseball games in the books, so what did we learn that we might be able to apply to the world of fantasy baseball?

Jose Bautista already qualifies as a third baseman and outfielder. On opening day he also moved over to play first base after the Jays removed Adam Lind in favor of a pinch runner. It’s only one game, but it hints that Bautista just might play five or 10 games at the position this year, the threshold in many leagues for a player to pick up positional eligibility which would only further enhance his obvious value.

Life isn’t always fair. Exhibit #1
Justin Verlander pitches eight scoreless innings and picked up a no-decision after Jose Valverde blew the save after not blowing a single one of his 49 opportunities last season. The guy who blew the game, Valverde, ended up with the victory when the Tigers came back to win. Remember what I always say about chasing victories? Or how about how I always say that you should never use a pitchers won-loss record as a judge of his performance? See what I’m saying?

Life isn’t always fair. Exhibit #2
Jon Lester didn’t quite match Verlander Thursday, but he pitched very well allowing just one run in seven innings. He ended up with a no-decision when the Red Sox bullpen blew it. Mark Melancon ended up with the loss, but it was Alfredo Aceves who actually deserved the loss (for my thoughts on the Red Sox Bullpen see: Relievers, Wild, Wild, West). He came into the game, hit a batter, and then gave up the game winning hit. Still, Aceves escaped with an unblemished record despite not getting an out in the effort.

You’re daily talk about closers… the Royals settled on Jonathan Broxton as their lead man in the 9th inning. At one time one of my favorites, Broxton was amazing in 2009 when he won seven games, saved 36, posted a 2.61 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and had a dominating 13.50 K/9 mark. Seasons like that lead you to the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately for Broxton, it’s his only season of more than 22 saves, and it was also the last time he was an effective big league pitcher. Over the last two seasons Broxton has been injured an just passable in terms of his production: 6-8, 4.32 ERA an a 1.55 WHIP. He still struck out 9.96 batters per nine innings, but he only threw 75 innings in the two seasons as he just couldn’t stay healthy. I can understand why the Royals went with him in the 9th, he has the most experience of their bullpen arms and could bring a nice return if moved at the trade deadline (he’s on a one year deal), but I’m still not convinced he is going to be able to hold off Greg Holland all year.

Josh Collmenter was lucky as all heck last year to post a 3.38 ERA and 1.07 WHIP over 154.1 innings. He didn’t strike anyone out (5.83 per nine), had a terrible GB/FB ratio (0.71) and seemingly got by mostly on his funky delivery. He looked lost all spring training and it won’t take much for the team to consider moving him to the bullpen, not with Trevor Bauer looking ready to give it a go in the majors. In his first start of the year at Double-A Bauer allowed just two hits and no runs, while striking out seven, in five innings.

Johnny Cueto ended last season with a 2.31 ERA but he threw only 156 innings falling short of qualifying for the NL ERA crown (a pitcher needs 162 innings). Well, he added to that excellence in his first start as he tossed seven shutout innings for the Reds. He induced 10 ground balls continuing a trend he started last season of generating a ton of ground balls. Speaking of the Reds, Aroldis Chapman looked completely dominating with two strikeout in a hitless 8th inning. When he is locating his pitches batters stand nary a chance of making hard contact.

Edinson Volquez allowed only three hits and two runs in five innings in his first start with the Padres. Unfortunately he picked up a loss as he walked four batters, including two with the bases loaded. All he needs to do is to throw strikes to be effective. The question is, can he?

By Ray Flowers

Relievers: Wild Wild West

We’re less than a week into the fantasy baseball season, and already people are running to the waiver-wire to address the need to fill the saves category in the fantasy game (is this a great time to bring up why we should include Solds as the fifth fantasy category in place of saves? Solds is saves+holds, and it would give middle relievers as much of a chance to be productive as a closer, so instead of worry about who to roster cause you need a closer, you could simply add the best reliever and be done with it). I’m doing to address the hottest situations of the last few days – Nationals, Rays and Red Sox – right after I break down some thoughts on how everyone should be looking at these situations.

I know that everyone didn’t purchase the 2012 Baseball Guys Draft Guide, if you did you’re likely not in the predicament that some people now find themselves in, but here are a few salient bits of information that I suggested people keep in mind when putting together a team.

When choosing a reliever, target arms that:

Have a K/9 rate of 7.50 or better.
Have a BB/9 rate under 3.00
Have a K/BB rate of at least 2.50
It would also be great if they have a GB/FB ratio of 1.50 or better.

* The article PITCHING TARGETS in the Draft Guide breaks these numbers down in much greater detail giving lists of pitchers that qualify.

This also brings up the point that I always preach:

Target skills, not roles.

I want the best pitchers on my team. I have no idea how/when/why a manger might change what he will do in the 9th inning. In simple terms – I don’t want a guy on my team merely cause he is the closer. I want a guy on my team who has the skills to be successful. At some point you need saves, and if you have to roster a guy with poor ratios to get them then so be it, but there is little reason to desperately try and grab “closers” with poor skills off the waiver-wire in the first week of the season. Remember that. It’s a long year, 162 games worth, and just cause a guy is set to close right now doesn’t mean he will be closing in August.

NATIONALS
Closer: Drew Storen (likely out until late April)
Replacements: Brad Lidge, Henry Rodriguez

This is a bad situation to jump into. It was announced today that Lidge and Rodriguez will alternate working the ninth inning game after game. If you’re in a weekly league, it’s almost impossible to use either guy given that fact. Even in a roto league, be very careful here. If Storen is back in three weeks as expected, how much are you willing to pay for 2-3 saves if you add either backup option?

RAYS
Closer: Kyle Farnsworth (elbow strain. No structural damage)
Replacement: Joel Peralta, Fernando Rodney, J.P. Howell, Jake McGee

Farnsworth could miss two weeks or two months, we don’t really know, though expectations are that he won’t be out long-term. Unfortunately, it looks like the Rays will go with a closer by committee situation. So what do you do here? Rodney is a disaster and his skill set doesn’t come close to matching my “rules” from above. Howell does have a strong skill set but he walks too many batters (4.19 per nine for his career), is left handed and he threw just 30.2 innings last season. That leaves Peralta as the best choice, not just by default either, but also because of his skills. The last two seasons for Peralta have led to some impressive numbers: 8.49 K/9, 2.08 BB/9 an a 4.07 K/BB. The only thing he doesn’t do is induce grounders (his GB/FB ratio for his career is atrocious at 0.66).

RED SOX
Closer: Andrew Bailey (thumb surgery, out 3-4 months)
Replacement: Alfredo Aceves, Mark Melancon

This is the situation that has me most surprised. Bailey goes down, he’s out at least the first half of the 2012 season, and the Sox name Aceves the closer. What ensues is a stampede to the waiver-wire to add Aceves as everyone suddenly seems to think he’s an elite closer. I’m not kidding. EVERYWHERE I look people are pushing, shoving, lying and stealing in order to add Aceves. A brief example of that is my Twitter Poll that I ran for two hours today. Of the four options people were given to add to their staff, Aceves was chosen 64 percent of the time. Why? I suggest it’s merely because he is a Red Sox (over at Fleaflicker it doesn’t seem that the craziness has taken full hold). Let’s break Aceves down.

His career K/9 mark is 6.26, well below the 7.50 mark I like to target.
His BB/9 mark is 2.70 for his career, below the 3.00 mark I like to target.
His K/BB ratio is 2.32, below the 2.50 mark I like to target.
His GB/FB ratio is 0.88, below the 1.50 mark I like to target.

Furthermore, even if you don’t like my targets, consider this.
His career K/9 mark is below the big league average.
His career K/BB ratio is one tenth better the big league average.
His GB/FB is well below the big league average.

To summarize, Aceves is a pitcher with average big league skills. Period. Just take a look at his xFIP. For his career that mark is 4.54, more than a run an a half above his 2.93 raw ERA. Simply put he’s the anti-Ricky Nolasco. Aceves is someone who has had success that he hasn’t completely deserved. Moreover, and people seem to be looking right past this, he has no experience in the ninth inning with four career saves. I’ve said it, but let me write it for you all one more time; Mark Melancon is a more highly skilled pitcher. His K-rate is better, he generates a significantly higher ground ball rate (his 2.64 GB/FB ratio last season is better than what you get when you combined Aceves’ marks the past two years – 2.52), and Melancon is the one who has experience working the 9th inning (20 saves last year for the Astros). Please heed my warning an avoid going all in on Aceves. If you do, the odds say that you will likely regret it.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Opening Day

Finally.

I know that the games officially started last week with the epic battles staged by the Mariners and Athletics in Japan, but I’m calling today the official start of the major league season when the Cardinals take on the Marlins.

With the attrition rate of closers at this point of the preseason, will any hurler reach 40 saves this season? Hell, will any reach 30? Of course they will, but the tumultuous start for many a team in the bullpen, and remember we’ve only had a couple of major league games played to this point, is yet another indication of why you shouldn’t reach on closers on draft day. One other note in case you missed it – Alfredo Aceves will get the first shot to close for the Red Sox. No idea though if he will lead this team in saves though he is a decently skilled hurler who could thrive in the role, you never know (I’m still a fan of Mark Melancon who I think possesses better skills). Heck, I can’t stop. Here’s another note on bullpens. Looks like the White Sox still aren’t certain who they will call on in the 9th inning, but support is growing for Hector Santiago being that guy. Why? Beats me. Perhaps it’s because he has thrown all of 5.1 innings above Double-A in his life. For my thoughts on their bullpen situation see Lunacy in Chicago?

Michael Pineda says that his shoulder is feeling better. Whoppie. He’s still going to start the year on the DL, and he’s still likely to miss all of April – and that is if he doesn’t have another setback. Good luck with that.

It wouldn’t be an opening day without Grady Sizemore on the DL. He was placed on the 60 DL since he has no shot at being back on the field in April after undergoing a micro discectomy procedure on his back on March 1st. Boy that sounds bad doesn’t it?

Did the Indians overpay for Asdrubal Cabrera when they gave him an additional two years for a total of $16.5 million? He won’t repeat his 25 homer outing of last season and he hit .273 which was below his career average of .281. For further thoughts on why the Indians may have slightly overpaid see Cabrera’s Player Profile.

I don’t care if Katy Perry has blue hair. I still love her.

As of this writing the Giants still haven’t officially told Brandon Belt that he has made the club. It does appear though that he will open the year with the club, and that he could play first base with Aubrey Huff moving to the outfield.  “He’s been getting most of the playing time there,’’ manager Bruce Bochy said. “We’ve said we’d put the bats out there that are swinging well.” Belt has hit .389 in spring games while Huff has also produced hitting .306.

Anyone else get the feeling that Nelson Cruz isn’t going to make it through the year unscathed, or even close to it? He’s already dealt with a hand issue that kept him out of action, and now he’s being slowed by an elbow issue after taking a pitch of his left one. X-rays confirm that there is no break, and he is still expected to be ready for opening day. Is it possible that he’s getting all his injuries knocked out before the season starts? Doubtful.

Looks like Ross Detwiler will open the year as the Nationals fifth starter as the club has decided to send John Lannan to the minors in a surprising move. “I look at it this way, Detwiler earned the job,” general manager Mike Rizzo said. “He deserved the job. It was a prudent baseball move for the current Nationals and the future Nationals.” As exciting as the news is for Detwiler and his NL-only prospects, don’t forget that Chien-Ming Wang isn’t expected to miss much more than four weeks and at that time Detwiler will likely end up returning to the bullpen. If you’re an owner of Lannan in a mixed league, it’s time to move on.

All the prep work, all the late nights of telling your significant other that you didn’t have time for them because you had to break down middle infielder’s BABIP are over. Now it’s time for all your hard work the entire offseason to start to payoff. Enjoy it for a day or two. After that, get back at it because the baseball season is perfect for those of you out there who are willing to work at the daily grind. So sit back, relax, and enjoy the 2012 season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: March 3, 2010

(1) Phil Hughes in battle with Joba Chamberlain, Chad Gaudin and Alfredo Aceves for Yanks 5^th starters spot.

(2) Jason Heyward greatest player of all-time. Just ask around

(3) Tim Hudson and Jeremy Bonderman throw two shutout innings apiece.

(4) Brad Lidge continues to show improvement with knee/elbow.

(6) Jair Jurrjens shoulder showing improvement.

(7) Lance Berkman’s knee not that bad. Should be fine.

(8) Aaron Harang named Reds’ Opening Day starter.

By Ray Flowers