Draft Day Challenge, May 14

BaseballGuys.com has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Brian McCann
2. Joe Mauer

McCann has hit the ground a running with a .333 average, three homers and 10 RBIs in his first 21 at-bats. He’s 0-for-2 against the hot Patrick Corbin, but McCann is going so well, including 7-for-17 of late (.412), that you should be starting him regardless.

You could obviously list Mauer’s name in every one of these writeups and be fine, but he’s scalding right now. Mauer has hit .447 the past two weeks with 13 runs scored. That’s enough to overlook his “mere” .316 mark against Mr. Peavy over 29 at-bats.

FIRST BASE
1. Edwin Encarnacion
2. Billy Butler

EE faces Barry Zito, in Toronto. That alone should make you interested. When you hear what he has done in nine plate appearances, your interest better be piqued: 4-for-7, two homers, eight RBIs. He also has two homers and six RBIs the past week.

Coming off a huge game (five hits, five RBIs), there is no reason to expect Butler to slow down against Jason Vargas considering he has six hits and three walks in 16 PAs against him. The end result is a .462 average, .563 OBP, two homers and five RBIs.

SECOND BASE
1. Robinson Cano
2. Neil Walker

Cano faces the all mighty King Felix Tuesday, but he’s had a ton of success in the matchup. Besides only striking out six times in 41 at-bats he’s also hit .366 with two homers and five RBIs.

Walker is back from the DL, and though he went 0-for-4 in his first game, perhaps facing Kyle Lohse will help. Walker has eight hits, to go along with five RBIs, in 20 at-bats (.400 average).

THIRD BASE
1. Ryan Zimmerman
2. Adrian Beltre

It’s borderline stupid to suggest playing anyone against Mr. Kershaw, but here goes. Zimmerman has four hits in nine at-bats against the lefty with nary a strikeout. He’s also starting to warm at the dish with a .318 mark and five RBIs the past week.

Going with two vets at the hot corner today. Beltre has hit .316 with five homers and 14 RBIs against Bartolo Colon over 57 at-bats. He owns him, or something like that. Beltre has also hist .346 with two homers and seven RBIs the past week.

SHORTSTOP
1. Ben Zobrist
2. Jayson Nix

Oh that John Lackey. Seems like many batters enjoys seeing him on the bump anymore. Zobrist is 8-for-20, a cool .400 average, with five walks against Lackey leading to a .538 OBP.

Jeter and Nunez are down and out, so Nix is the starter at short for the Yankees. He’s produced five hits in 10 at-bats against King Felix and he’s also rapped out eight hits, and six runs, over the past week of games.

OUTFIELD
1. Jose Tabata
2. Andre Ethier

Add Tabata to the list of guys that crush Mr. Lohse. Well crush might be too strong a term, but he does have 10 hits in 21 at-bats (.476), and that’s impressive. Tabata also has seven hits in his last 14 at-bats this season.

Ethier is hitting only .254 on the year, but things are looking up. He’s hit .318 the past week, and now he gets to face Dan Haren who he has only hit .426 against in 47 at-bats (two homer,s seven RBIs as well).

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Chris Tillman
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Julio Teheran
4. Scott Kazmir

Tillman is 3-0 with a 2.03 ERA over his last four starts and he takes on the Padres Tuesday. That’s usually a good thing, facing the Padres, right?

The last three weeks Guthrie is 3-0 with a 0.42 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. He faces an Angels team that has scored just 156 runs this season, the same total as the Astros.

The Braves haven’t lost a single one of Teheran’s starts this season, even if he is only 2-0 on the season. In his last three starts he has allowed a total of six runs which is impressive even if he has only 11 Ks and has allowed 25 hits (19.1 innings). He faces the D’backs.

Kazmir is 2-1 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.06 WHIP, not to mention 21 Ks, over his last 17 innings. I picked him up this week in two leagues. Must mean he’s bound to fall on his face. He faces a Phillies team that has a .619 OPS over their last eight games.

By Ray Flowers

FanDuel Contest: Vegas and $1 Million?

Fantasy baseball may never be the same. Thanks to FanDuel.com, you have a chance to enter a contest to win a free trip to Vegas, oh, and to pocket a grand prize of $200,000. All it will cost you is $10. Interested? If so, and why on earth wouldn’t a chance to seem some Vegas show girls, to put a $20 spot down on the craps table, or to walk away with enough money to put your kids through school not appeal to you?

$1 million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship on FanDuel

For the next 14 weeks a winner will be crowned in the $1 million Daily Fantasy Baseball Championship. Each weekly winner will then be flown to Vegas, all expenses paid by FanDuel.com, and given a shot at the $200,000 grand prize. That’s right. Win two weekly matchups and you’ve got $200,000 coming your way. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. And don’t think that you have to enter hundreds of times to win. Jordy Nelson last year entered once, one time, and he ended up in the Finals in Vegas cause he won his weekly matchup. He then proceeded to win that year’s grand prize of $100,000. All from one $10 entry.

So what do you do? You go to Fanduel.com and sign up for the April 5th contest.

You then put together your salary cap team (the rules are very simple and can be found at the top of the page if you follow the link).

You win, you’re rolling in cash. Simple as that.

Who should you have in your lineup? Never say that The Oracle isn’t a nice guy. In the video below I will discuss some of the matchups and some names that you might consider adding to your lineup for your chance to become a very rich person courtesy of FanDuel.com.

And now, a video giving some thoughts on the matchups of the day.

By Ray Flowers

MLB: The Final Friday

The Dodgers gave Andre Ethier a 5-year, $85 million deal signaling that he is one of the building blocks of their offense. Then we get this. Manager Don Mattingly said the following about Ethier’s inability to hit left-handed pitching. “I can say all day long that I think he’s capable of hitting against lefties, but if the numbers keep telling us that maybe he can’t, then we have to go a different route,” he said. I’m not going to disagree with Mattingly because he’s right. Ethier is hitting .214/.269/.319 against lefties this year, a terrible batting line. For his career, the numbers are only slightly better at .236/.295/.350. The truth is the Dodgers gave a platoon player an $85 million contract. Has a contract ever looked worse before it actually took effect?

Dexter Fowler may or may not start again this season even though x-rays of his left wrist came back negative. He played some defense Thursday, so he just might still get some work at the dish, but it’s no lock. It’s been an uneven ride for Fowler this year but it’s hard to complain when he’s hit .300 with 13 homers, 12 steals and 72 runs scored. Fowler has also gotten on base at an impressive .389 clip, and that .474 SLG ain’t too shabby either. He’s hit .315 against the lefties and .293 against the righties showing an ability to handle both thanks to his switch hitting, but his work away from Coors is still an issue. Dexter has hit .332 with a .984 OPS in home games but just .262 with a .720 OPS on the road, so that continues to be an issue to think about when setting your lineups next year.

Gio Gonzalez won his major league leading 21st game Thursday night. While that is a career best mark and highly impressive in it’s own right, there is this. If he doesn’t start again (he shouldn’t), he will end the year with 21 victories and 199.1 innings pitched. That is significant because it will make him the first hurler in big league to record 21 victories while throwing less than 200 innings. The first.

When $50,000 doesn’t go as far as it used to.

The best pitcher in baseball is Craig Kimbrel. Thanks to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution for pointing the following out: over his last 49 appearances Kimbrel has a 0.55 ERA, which is amazing. He’s posted a 0.46 WHIP which is stupendous. He struck out 92 batters leading to a 16.78 K/9 while walking just six batter leading to a 15.33 K/BB ratio. Folks, it just doesn’t get any better than that.

Dan Uggla has had the worst season of his impressive career. After 6-straight years of 27 homers, 82 RBIs and 84 runs scored, the longest streak in baseball history for a second sacker, he’s going to fall off the pace this season. Still, 19 homers, 77 RBIs and 85 runs scored are all solid marks. However, that .217 batting average is terrible, even for a fella who has hit .253 for his career. I can’t blame the Braves for being a bit weary but it should be noted that, in addition to the solid counting number production, that Uggla also has a .343 OBP which is an exact match for his career mark even with that career-low batting average thanks to a career best walk rate.

STRONG FINISHING KICK
(The Past Two Weeks)

.591 – The BABIP of Brandon Moss over his last 44 plate appearances. Chris Nelson is just behind at .550 followed by Joey Votto at .500.

.439 – The batting average of Justin Smoak who has also gone deep five times. He needs one homer for 20 homers for the season. Over at Fleaflicker it’s clear that no one is buying his hot couple of weeks.

.438 – Marco Scutaro’s batting average over his last 12 games during which time he’s also scored 12 runs while knocking in 11.

.417 – Ichiro Suzuki is finally hitting. Not just that, he’s running like it was the old days. He’s stolen seven bases the past two weeks, the same total as Everth Cabrera, the most in baseball.

6 – The league leading homer total of Miguel Cabrera who also leads the majors with 16 runs scored and 15 RBIs. The RBI total has also been matched by the Phillies’ Ryan Howard though he’s saddled his teams with a mere .188 batting average.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: Augus16, 2012

Each week on Thursday’s I’ll be answering fantasy baseball questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Drop Carlos Santana for Salvador Perez, Ryan Doumit, Willin Rosario, or Jonathan Lucroy?
– @Krisr0ck27

First off, everyone needs to make sure they do a two catcher league next season. This is especially so in the the myriad of 10 team leagues that I receive questions about every day. If you can literally go to the waiver-wire an add any of those last four names, you should be ashamed at the lack of depth in your league. Lucroy is hitting .324 on the year. Rosario is tied with Buster Posey for the NL lead in homers (19) for catcher. Doumit has been a top-10 catcher this year (.294-14-59). Perez has hit .298 with eight bombs in a mere 39 games.

When the season started I would have said to go with Santana. Over the past four weeks only one catcher on this list has outperformed him (Doumit who has hit .311-7-17) as Santana has hit .270 with six homers and 19 RBIs. Santana has also hit seven bombs with 23 RBIs, a .410 OBP, a .542 SLG and .953 OPS since the All-Star break. You can move to Doumit if you need a bit of an average boost, but there is absolutely nothing wrong with holding on to, and riding, Santana.

First in all offensive categories, close to last in pitching categories. Is it worth giving Carlos Gonzalez for Matt Cain for the home stretch?
– @stealyurbase

It’s certainly the time of year in rotisserie that you have to play the categories. That means making deals that sometimes may not make total sense off the top. Would I ever draft Matt Cain ahead of Carlos Gonzalez? Are you on dope? Would never happen. But we’re 4.5 months into a six month season, so if your team needs pitching help this is certainly something to consider.

Cain continues to marvel with his consistency. Last year he had a 2.88 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. This year he has a 2.99 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. Moreover, since the start of the 2009 season, a span of 122 starts, Cain has a 2.98 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. All he does is take the ball every five games and give the Giants a chance to win. Period. My only hesitation here is that Cain has been a bit below his normal standards over his last seven starts as he’s been saddled with a 4.30 ERA and 1.24 WHIP, not awful numbers, but he’s not exactly trending in the right direction.

The deal isn’t a world beater by any means but it’s also solid given your needs.

I’ve been offered Hunter Pence for my Alex Gordon in a 12 team, H2H league. Seems like a good buy low but a lil worried.
– @NotoriousBox

I understand the concern, Pence is hitting a mere .177 with the Giants, but let’s compare these two guys efforts to one another.

Pence has doubled Gordon in homers, 18 to nine.
Pence has 24 more RBIs – 70 to 46.
Pence has scored one fewer run (66 to 67) and stolen two fewer bases (five to seven).

The only category in the fantasy game that really favors Gordon is batting average (.293 to .259). What about that average? Pence has a career .288 mark. Gordon’s career mark is .267. Pence also has hit at least .282 each of the past four years. Yes Pence is hitting .183 over his last 30 games and Gordon is hitting .341, and that’s a mind boggling difference. Still, I assume we can agree that neither player is likely to continue their pace since the All-Star break, right?

I’d take a shot on Pence. He’s got too much history on his side not to think he could still make a run to .280 this season, and he clearly has displayed a significant power advantage over Gordon this season.

Give up Curtis Granderson for Andre Ethier and Adam Wainwright? Could use a starting pitcher.
– @LKrukowski

Granderson has 30 bombs, 68 RBIs and 79 runs scored putting on pace for another excellent season. Of course there are some among you who are disappointed with that effort as he hit 41 homers with 119 RBIs and 136 runs scored last season. He was never going to repeat those numbers. He’s also continued his bizarre trend of alternating impressive an average steals totals from season to season (26, 12, 20, 12, 25 and eight this year). His batting average has also dipped to .235 an it’s looking like this will be his third sub .250 effort in four seasons.

Ethier will certainly give you a nice batting average boost. A career .291 hitter, he’s batting .288 this season after back-to-back efforts of .292. He’s nowhere near the run producer that Granderson is though as he’s hit only 22 homers over his last 241 games. Furthermore, after a torrid start to the year that included 44 RBIs in 50 games he’s driven in a mere 12 runners over his last 31 contests. On the hill  is Wainwright, and he is surging. Over his last seven starts he has a 2.40 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, nearly a K per inning (44 in 48.2 frames) and he’s walked only eight batters. It took a while for him to find his footing, but over the past two months he has looked as good as he ever has.

If you need starting pitching help I think this is a solid deal, especially since Ethier should help to smooth out the ding that Granderson put into your batting average. Let’s just hope that the Cardinals don’t shut down Wainwright early to protect his arm. After all, he didn’t throw a big league pitch last year.

In tight battle for 1st on a 15 team league. Worried about Dan Haren rest of year. Time to cut bait or hang tight?
– @99hokie

Haren clearly isn’t 100 percent because of that back. As a result of the physical woes his performance has been up and down. A prime example. After allowing a total of four runs in three starts he permitted five earned over 3.1 innings in his last outing. That still gives him a 3.80 ERA over his last four starts, nearly a run below his 4.68 mark for the season. If we pull back a bit further he still has a solid 3.00 K/BB ratio on the year. His GB/FB ratio of 1.00 is right on par with his mark the last two years. He is surrendering more homers than every before (1.44 per nine versus 1.04 for his career) and that number could normalize a bit. He’s also dealing with a .283 batting average against, and only once since 2005 has that number been over .260 so it’s possible that he could be a wee bit stingier with the base knocks the rest of the way.

Admittedly there is no way to know exactly where Haren’s body is at, but I’d still profess faith in his ability to get batters out. You can’t expect the 3.17 ERA, 1.02 WHIP guy from last season, but he should still be an above average option on the bump, especially in a 15 team league (the folks over at Fleaflicker seem to agree).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun (and don’t think I’m not going to this weekend given that I will be in The Vegas. That’s right, The Oracle in Vegas… only good things can happen given that setup, right?). Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

CONTEST

At BaseballGuys.com we have partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday July 27th starting at 7pm EST which is FREE. That’s right it costs nothing, to enter. Here are the details:

- Create your team with a $1 million dollar salary cap: C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

Follow these 2 steps to play now:

1. CLICK HERE to register at DailyJoust and make your selections for the contest

2.  Watch the live scoring on DailyJoust to see how your team stacks up against the competition.

Remember, it’s FREE to enter and there are $250 in prizes up for grabs. Oh, I almost forgot to mention you can get a 40% deposit bonus up to $400,refer a friend and both get $20.

**Must have less than 1 MLB win on DailyJoust to compete in contest.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Andre Ethier vs. Matt Cain: Hey, it may not make one iota of sense, but Ethier absolutely obliterates pitches from Cain. In 51 career matchups Ethier has produced 22 hits and four walks. The result is a .468 batting average and .491 OBP against the Giants’ ace. James Loney is also 14-for-41 against Cain (.341).

Martin Prado vs. Cole Hamels: Brian McCann has 12 RBIs in 51 at-bats again Hamels but the real star of this show is Prado who has produced 15 hits in 45 career ABs (.333) against the newly minted gazillionare of the Phillies.

B.J. Upton vs. Dan Haren: Eleven Ks in 26 at-bats for Upon in this matchup. So why on Earth am I mentioning Upton as a solid play? In the other 15 at-bats Upton has ripped nine hits including four homers. Add it all up and B.J. has hit .346 with four homers an a 1.192 OPS against Haren.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Lance Lynn vs. Cubs: Lynn has allowed the Cubs to hit .222 with a .617 OPS against him in his young career as he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 21.1 innings pitched. Given that he’s allowed just one earned runs in his last three starts overall, this would seem like a pretty fair matchup.

Josh Tomlin vs. Twins: Looking for a sneaky play for Friday? Though current Twins batters have hit a healthy .288 off Tomlin in 73 at-bats, they’ve also managed a mere .297 OBP and .653 OBP as they’ve only taken him deep once.

Carlos Villanueva vs. Tigers: Over his last 10 outings (only four starts), Carlos has 38 Ks and just 15 walks in 34.2 innings leading to a 1.82 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s also had success against the Tigers in his career with a 2.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 5.00 K/BB ratio over 17 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Carl Crawford vs. CC Sabathia: These two have faced off 69 times with Crawford emerging with 22 hits leading to a .319 average. After a tremendous start in his return to action Crawford has slowed though producing only one hit in 18 at-bats before game action Friday.

Buster Posey vs. Chad Billingsley: The Dodgers’ righty was impressive in his first game back from the DL (1 ER in 6 IP vs. STL), but this is one matchup he has a ton of trouble with. Posey has 11 hits in 23 at-bats leading to a .478 average (Nate Schierholtz has hit .450 in 20 ABs against Chad). Posey, in case you’ve missed it, is hitting .465 over his last 11 games for the Giants as well.

Matt Kemp vs. Barry Zito: Just seeing this matchup has to make you think that Kemp is going to go off. When you look at the numbers you should be comforted by the fact that your initial thought is exactly right. In 49 career at bats Kemp has ripped off 22 hits (.449) and he’s also taken Zito deep twice with eight walks leading to a .526 OBP.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Bruce Chen vs. Mariners: This one is a shot in the dark since he’s pitched so poorly of late including a four runs, two homer effort against the Mariners back in July 18th. Chen has a .200/.209/.323 line in the 65 at-bats against the current Mariners. He’s also always had success against the club from the Pacific Northwest with a 4-0 record, 3.10 ERA and1.16 WHIP in 12 career matchups.

Bartolo Colon vs. Orioles: Current Orioles hitters are batting .243 with two homers and five RBIs in 144 career at-bats off Colon. The hefty righty of the A’s has allowed eight runs in his last two starts, but for the month of July he’s still sporting a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP so he’s been very steady overall.

CC Sabathia vs. Red Sox: In 315 career at-bats the Red Sox batters have hit .248 against Sabathia. You’ll remember I mentioned Crawford killing it against CC above. Remove Crawford’s work against Sabathia and the rest of the Sox have hit .228 against the massive lefty.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

The weekend is quickly approaching, so get ready to get your swerve on. For those of you looking to remain at least a little bit serious with your hobby (fantasy baseball not drinking) I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday while also suggesting you head over to DailyJoust.com to check out their unique brand of daily fantasy baseball games (including a way to win two tickets to the Major League All-Star Game).

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Jay Bruce vs. Nick Blackburn: Bruce has been ice cold for a while hitting .227 over his last 45 games. Still, he has 12 walks in 18 games in June and his SLG for the month is .500. Bruce has gone deep 12 times in 174 at-bats against righties this year and he gets to face Nick Blackburn who has been torched by lefty batters this year to the tune of a .393 BAA and .924 OPS against this season.

Andre Ethier vs. Dan Haren: The Angels’ righty has struggled a bit with health and performance which only adds to the aura for Ethier in this matchup. In 44 career at-bats Ethier has five doubles, two homers, seven RBI and a .386 batting average against Haren. James Loney also hammers Haren (.359 in 39 at-bats).

David Wright vs. Andy Pettitte: Wright is third in baseball with a .358 batting average. He’s hitting .343 in June. He’s hitting .343 against lefties this season. Facing Pettitte 24 previous times Wright has managed to produce two homers an a .458 batting average. Lock and load.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

A.J. Burnett vs. Tigers: The last eight times that Burnett has taken the hill this year he has allowed two or fewer runs seven times (he allowed three runs in the other outing). He’s also picked up a win in each of his last six outings. He does face a Tigers club that is potent, but I’m going to focus on his recent success this season and the 5-2 career record he has against the Tigers over the 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP he has against the Motown club over nine career starts.

Jason Hammel vs. Nationals: Hammel has killed it at home this year with a 2.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over five starts spanning 32 innings. He’s also had success in his career against the Nats going 4-0 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over six starts.

Clayton Richard vs. Mariners: (1) He’s facing the Mariners. (2) Richard is Matt Cain when pitching at home. Think I’m nuts? Here are the numbers that prove it.

Matt Cain 2012: 12Wins, 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 179 K in 222.2 IP

Clayton Richard career at Petco: 13Wins , 2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 180 K in 228.1 IP

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Russell Martin vs. Chris Young: Martin has eight hits in 25 at-bats against Young leading to a .320 batting average. Martin has also had a solid June with four homers and nine RBIs for the Yankees.

Alexei Ramirez vs. Randy Wolf: The lefty from Milwaukee has bombed on the road this year with a 6.75 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over six starts. Ramirez has finally started to pick things up of late as well as he’s hitting .359 the past two weeks, and for his career he has hit .300 in 617 at-bats against lefties.

Ben Zobrist vs. Kyle Kendrick: Over the past two weeks Zobrist is hitting a robust .400 (he’s also scored 10 runs in 10 games). Kendrick, on the other hand, has struggled like he’s looking to be demoted as he’s allowed at least five runs in each of this last three starts as his ERA has gone from 4.02 to .529.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Johnny Cueto vs. Twins: The Twins can’t hit, and that situation isn’t helped by the fact that Joe Mauer can’t get his wheel healthy enough to play. Cueto has never faced the Twins but he’s sporting a 2.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in six home starts this season, and over his last four outings overall he’s permitted only seven runs while not allowing a single long ball.

Ian Kennedy vs.  Cubs: Though he owns a 5.91 ERA over three starts against the Cubs, how about we focus on the positive –  he’s lasted 21.1 innings in those three starts during which time he has struck out 18 and walked only two leading to a 1.08 WHIP. Kennedy has also allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts this year. The key will be keeping the ball in the yard as he’s allowed nine homers over his last eight outings.

Adam Wainwright vs. Royals: Wainwright is back on his game, well pretty much. Though he allowed seven runs on June 1st the other six times he has taken the hill since May 20th have resulted in eight earned runs allowed. In the process Adam W. has lowered his ERA from 5.77 to 4.46. He’s also had success in his career against the Royals with a 3.31 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 32.2 innings.

CONTESTS

Over at DailyJoust folks, lots of hot things popping (didn’t I sound super street there?).

Friday June 22 7pm EST – 2012 MLB All Star Joust.

This contest has been running for the past six weeks and Jousters have been playing every day to see who will qualify. If you were the winner of a $1 Page Thomas or $2 Squire Williams All Star Joust Qualifier, then you have earned a seat in the All Star Joust. The winner of All Star Joust will receive $1500 CASH plus 2 tickets to the 2012 MLB All Star Game in Kansas City on July 10th.

$2,000 MLB All Star Joust Freeroll
- $1,500 CASH to the WINNER
- 2 tickets ($500 value) to the 2012 MLB All Star Game in Kansas City on July 10th
Please check the list of Qualifiers to see if you are in All Star Joust

$1,000 King James “BEAT MOBYDICKLER” MLB Tournament
- 1st place $400 and Tournament Badge
- Winner gets seat in $15,000 Super Joust III in September
- Beat “Mobydickler” and earn a “Bounty” badge towards your Super Joust III and $250 Monthly Badge Rewards Freeroll total

$300 King John MLB Tournament – $5 entry
- 1st place $100
- Winner receives seat in $15,000 Super Joust III in September

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link and look for the “Crown” icon along with “Super Joust Qualifier” in the contest line.

Mailbag: June7, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you move Justin Upton for Andrew McCutchen in a keeper league?
– @sfavree

If you ask people in the fantasy game, they would have universally told you that prior to the start of this season Upton was the higher ceiling player. Not that anyone was down on McCutchen, it was just that Upton was the guy they would have wanted. So far that hasn’t even been close to being the right call.

Upton: .243-5-20-34-8
McC: .333-10-33-31-10

Small sample size? Well, how about we backtrack to the start of last season.

Upton: .278-36-109-139-29 with a .853 OPS
McC: .277-33-122-118-33 with a .855 OPS

The plot thickens.

I’ll say this.

(1) The numbers say that since the start of last season that these two players are the same player.

(2) Age isn’t a factor. Upton was born in August of 1987, McCutchen was born in October of 1986.

(3) There is no wrong answer to the question of which player is the one you want to build your squad around.

Upton is likely to be the more consistent power threat. If there is a player here who has a chance to lead the league in homers or RBIs, it’s Upton.

McCutchen is likely to be the more consistent base stealing option as the years progress, and that adds substantially to his fantasy value.

Honestly, you can flip a coin. Since I’m all about winning right now, even in a keeper league (more on that below), give me McCutchen who is performing at a higher level this season.

I need some help. Eric Hosmer for Mark Trumbo and Alfredo Aceves in 10 team keeper?
– @will_zme

Keeper leagues always fascinate me. Obviously without knowing all the details of a league it’s pretty difficult to give a 100 percent accurate answer to any such question, but in general you have to ask yourself two main questions: (1) Is the goal to win this season? (2) Are you building to win in the future? I’m of the opinion that if you can win this year, go for it. You don’t know if you’ll even be playing fantasy baseball in three years, and you certainly don’t know if you will still be playing in the same league. Plus, with injuries an the inherent uncertainty of the game, why not go for it when you have a legit shot to hoist the trophy? That said, there is a third level that must be addressed – how many players can you keep and for how long? The answer to any keeper question changes depending on whether you hold three, five, 10 or more players.

If you’re trying to win this season you have to take the duo here. Trumbo has been out of his mind thus far hitting .337 with 12 homers and 31 RBIs. The batting average is a fluke. Trumbo doesn’t hit enough line drives (19 percent) and strikes out too much (22.2 percent) to get a hit every three times he comes to the plate, and he simply won’t be able to sustain his current .387 BABIP. I’d be looking at a significant step back there. I also wouldn’t be shocked to see a minor pullback in his homer rate, but he obviously has 30 homer power so an outright drought isn’t likely.

Aceves had a 10.29 ERA in April before rebounding to post a 2.89 mark in May as he converted eight of nine save chances (here’s a look at his performance over at Fleaflicker). On the season he has an impressive 9.73 K/9 mark, though that number is somehow three batters above his career rate. He’s also walking more batters per nine innings – 3.77 – than any point in his career (2.81 per nine). He’s offset some of that by generating more grounders than ever before leading to an impressive 1.81 GB/FB. He will have to deal with the return of Andrew Bailey at some point, but for now he’s a solid bet to continue to rack up saves even if his performance slips a bit.

Hosmer has hits in 9-straight games and finally appears to be putting his season back together. Hosmer still has a walk rate that is better than last season, his strikeout mark is also lower, and his line drive rate and HR/F ratios are the same as his rookie season. I keep focusing on that .222 BABIP and really think he’s been unfortunate (you can blame the defensive shift that teams are employing against him for some of that too).

I don’t think anyone is going to argue with you that Hosmer is the better keeper than Trumbo, but if you’re looking to win this season I think you should go with the Angel slugger and the Red Sox current closer.

Give Andre Ethier, get Eric Hosmer. Fair? Other team needs outfield help.
– @scotsyl

I wrote above about Hosmer and how I’m a fan of him as well as that I’m expecting him to continue to improve his production. At the same time, I don’t know why you would be offering an established high level producer in the outfield who just so happens to be leading the NL in RBIs at the moment with 46 for him? Makes no sense to me. A career .292 hitter who ironically has hit .292 each of the past two seasons, there’s no reason to expect Ethier to slow down from his current .302 batting average. His .363 OBP is also just one point off his career mark, and the nine homers he currently has put him on pace for about 25 homers, right on the pace he averaged from 2008-10. Add in the fact that you say the other team really needs outfield help – and if they do you need to be low balling them to see how desperate they are – and you’re simply giving up way too much to acquire the Royals young first baseman.

When Emilio Bonifacio returns, who ROTW at SS – Bonifacio, Dee Gordon or Jed Lowrie?
– @JohnnyHoey

Bonifacio will likely be out until the start of July following thumb surgery, so assuming this question begins right after the All-Star break…

Emilio has the advantage of qualifying at third base, shortstop and the outfield, and that versatility it a big time boost to his value. He’s also running wild under Ozzie Guillen with 21 attempt (20 successful) in 39 games. That’s obviously a pace for 80 attempts over the course of a full season, a massive number in this day and age. Given his approach at the dish that includes a career best walk rate, it’s hard to think either of the other two fellas will be able to eclipse his fantasy value if he’s truly healthy.

Gordon wants to be what Bonifacio is. Gordon is hitting .230, and that’s the highest his average has been since May 8th thanks to a five game hitting streak. When you bat that low, you better bring something else to the table. Gordon is on pace for about three homers, 35 RBI and 60 runs scored, all awful totals for a mixed league player. He’s also getting on base at just a .274 clip, and that’s embarrassing for a professional baseball player. Since he never gets on base he’s rarely running so he’s not utilizing his one fantasy asset, and without the stolen bases he’s useless (he has only two steals since May 6th).

Lowrie is the best hitter of the trio, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he is the best fantasy option. May was an impressive month for Lowrie as he had six homers, 14 RBI and 15 runs scored, but that level of production isn’t going to be sustainable for the Astros’ shortstop. A career .258 hitter, Lowrie is batting .283 thanks to the best homer rate of his career as well as the highest line drive rate he’s ever had (22.4 percent). There are seeds of growth here with Lowrie, but he’ll need to avoid two things that have always plagued him – injury and inconsistency.

I’d go with Bonifacio who gives you that versatility and the elite base stealing ability.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. 

Around the Horn: May30, 2012

(1) Andre Ethier making big push for his payday this offseason.

(2) Roy Halladay out for 6-8 weeks with shoulder injury. Is he done being an elite arm?

(3) Jered Weaver placed on DL with back issue. Believed to be minor.

(4) Roy Oswalt signs with Rangers, about four weeks away.

(5) Jonathan Sanchez still working his way back from biceps issue.

(7) Brandon McCarthy good to go Saturday for A’s.

(8) Injured outfielders close to returning -  Yoenis Cespedes, Cameron Maybin, Michael Morse, Desmond Jennings and Nick Markakis.

You can also follow my work over at Sulia.com where I randomly post some of my thoughts through the day.

By Ray Flowers

The Fantasy Beat: Help Me Help You

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss a big trade that Justin just accepted and breakdown the strategy behind it. The guys will also tackle what Bryan LaHair owners should try to do with a guy so hot but not respected.

Zack Greinke, Andre Ethier, Prince  Fielder, Justin Upton, Bryan LaHair

Listen to the Audio.

Daily Joust – Wk 1: Did We Learn Anything?

There is finally a week of MLB games in the books. It might have two weeks for MLB to get all the teams on the field and playing, but how nice was it to see some action that actually counted? Did we learn anything in the first week of action? We learned that closers all over the place will have a hard time keeping their jobs if they keep this up. We learned how damaging losing one of your bullpen arms can be (see the Red Sox disastrous meltdown in the 9th with Andrew Bailey on the shelf after thumb surgery). We also learned that miracles can happen as the Mets started the year 3-0. What else did we learn that you might be able to apply to your Daily Joust fantasy baseball teams? So glad you asked.

LOSER OF THE WEEK

Anyone who rostered Clayton Kershaw ($319,000 DJ Salary) on their DailyJoust club.

Kershaw, suffering from the flu, managed to toss just three scoreless innings before he had to remove himself from his Opening Day start. You pat him on the back for giving it the old college try, but he simply killed everyone who had him active, and that was a large amount of folks given that Kershaw was coming off a season in which he led NL hurlers in wins (21 – tied with Ian Kennedy), ERA (2.28) and strikeouts (248). Kershaw should be ready to take his turn in the rotation Tuesday in the Dodgers homer opener and the expectation is that he will be able to pitch as long as his performance dictates.

ALREADY MASHING

Yoenis Cespedes ($90K): His opening series, highlighted by that 462 foot bomb he blasted to dead center field, showed just what type of hitter Cespedes can be. However, pitchers will find his weaknesses. They will exploit his weaknesses. His swing is still very long and has holes. He’s never faced this level of competition on a daily basis. Speaking of that, he’s never played a season with 162 games. Cespedes has produced a nice prologue, but this book still has 25 chapters to go.

Zack Cozart ($76K): The Reds’ shortstop killed it in Week 1 going 6-for-11 with a homer and four RBI. That’s as good as it’s going to get. Expectations are very high for Cozart heading into his first full season. The good news is that his recovery from Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing arm is complete. The bad news is that he isn’t as good a hitter as some think. Just look at his minor league numbers that include a .270 batting average, .332 OBP and .421 SLG. In 506 career games he hit 50 homers, stole 55 bases and produced that blah slash line. He’s simply not a prime time performer with a bat in his hand.

Rafael Furcal ($87K): After four games and 19 at-bats Furcal is hitting .526. As recently as 2010 he hit .300 with 22 steals, but he also appeared in 97 games that season, one of three years in the past four campaigns in which he didn’t appear in 100 games. That’s the key for the 34 year old – health. When he’s out there he can still produce, but the battle to drag his body out onto the field continues to be one that he often loses. Ride the hot hand, but realize that it’s all downhill from here.

Nick Markakis ($98K): Worries about his recovery from offseason abdominal surgery have been put to rest. It’s just three games, but Markakis has a triple, two homers an is hitting .556. One of the more stable commodities in the game, Markakis has produced at least 182 hits in each of the past five years. He plays everyday which helps to lead to the production, but he’s also failed to hit more than 18 homers the past three years, has seen his RBI total fail to hit 75 the past two years, and the last time he scored 80 runs was 2009. He’s consolid, but he’s unlikely to become a megastar in 2012.

ORIOLES PITCHERS

Through three games the Orioles are the best staff in baseball with a 1.00 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP as they led the club to a 3-0 start against the Twins. The real question though is – are the Orioles arms that good or are the Twins bats that bad? Go with the second choice. The Twins just didn’t hit the ball – at all – in the opening series of games. Here’s a quick run down of each of the Orioles hurlers who started those three games.

* Note: All three hurlers were/are great values given that the elite arms can approach or surpass $300,000.

Jake Arrieta ($151K): Win, 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 2 BBs, 4 Ks
Jason Hammel ($144K): Win, 8 IP, 1 H, 2 ER, 3 BBs, 5 Ks
Tommy Hunter ($150K): Win, 7 IP, 6 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 3 Ks

All three dominated the Twins and cost virtually nothing. If you were crazy enough to start any of them, the payoff was massive. Alas, none profile as strong long term options.

Arrieta is the best arm on this list. However, he struggled mightily at times during his first two seasons, an eventually had to have elbow surgery. He throw hard but still only struck out batters at a league average rate last season. He also walked batters like he was Jonathan Sanchez with a 4.45 per nine mark. Through 226.2 big league innings he has a 4.73 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 5.14 K/9 and 2.00 K/BB. It doesn’t get more bland than that.

Hammel is slightly intriguing. Freed from Colorado, perhaps he will live up to expectations with the Orioles (though pitching in the AL East isn’t exactly going to be easy). Unfortunately he’s coming off a putrid season that resulted in career worsts in K/9 (he lost nearly two batters off the mark he posted in 2009-10), while his BB/9 rate climbed by more than a batter per nine innings. He does a decent job in limiting the fly balls, but nothing in this skill set raises the flag up the pole at the moment.

Hunter is as average as you get when you look at his skills – worse than that actually. His K/9 rate is 4.96 for his career, more than two batters below the league average. At least he doesn’t beat himself with the walk so the result is a rather impressive 3.00 K/BB ratio. Still, he doesn’t miss any bats, is slightly below the league average with a 1.00 GB/FB mark (1.10 is the league mark), and he was never able to convince the Rangers to given him more than 128 innings of work in a season which should tell you something.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers