2011 Positional Review – Outfield

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

2011 OUTFIELD Top-20
1 Ryan Braun
2 Carl Crawford
3 Matt Holliday
4 Carlos Gonzalez
5 Nelson Cruz
6 Josh Hamilton
7 Matt Kemp
8 Andrew McCutchen
9 Shin-Soo Choo
10 Jason Heyward
11 Alex Rios
12 Justin Upton
13 Andre Ethier
14 Hunter Pence
15 B.J. Upton
16 Ichiro Suzuki
17 Jayson Werth
18 Jay Bruce
19 Shane Victorino
20 Chris Young

Braun was amazing in 2011. You can read all about that in Braun: Best of the Bunch.

Crawford was a disaster in 2011. You can read all about that in Carl Crawford: Total Failure.

Holliday had all kinds of issue this year (appendicitis, a quad, a finger, a bug in his ear), and in the end it hindered his performance. Holliday still was productive hitting .296 with a .912 OPS, and his pace over 550 at-bats would have equated to 27 homers, 92 RBI and 102 runs scored. Too bad he appeared in just 124 games.

Gonzalez was injured multiple times, but don’t let that fool you, he still had a fine fantasy season (.295-26-92-92-20 in 481 ABs) even if it failed to live up to his unrepeatable 2010 effort (.336-34-117-11-26 in 587 ABs). There are few better five category options in the game.

Cruz has been killing it in the playoffs, a sure sign that if he could ever stay healthy he’d produce a truly special season. Cruz had 29 homers and 87 RBI during the year, but with 475 at-bats he failed yet again to stay healthy long enough to post his first 500 at-bat season.

Hamilton was injured, again (what a shock), as he appeared in just 121 games. However, whenever he was on the field he was darn productive as he hit .298 with 25 homers, 94 RBI, 80 runs scored and eight steals.

Kemp was the best player in fantasy baseball in 2011. Kemp finished one homer short of going 40/40 as he hit .324 with 126 RBI and 115 runs scored. Kemp led the NL in homers and RBI, and finished just .013 points behind Jose Reyes to fall just short of the Triple Crown.

McCutchen was everything that was advertised for the Pirates going 20/20 (23 homers, 23 steals), scoring 87 runs and knocking in a career best 89. His average dipped from the .280s to just .259, but that number figures to rise in 2012.

Choo was injured multiple times resulting in a season of just 85 games. After hitting .300 the last two years, his .259 average was a major disappointment, and his .344 OBP was a career worst as well. He’s still got the skills to be a top-20 outfielder, but he’ll need health to prove it.

Heyward fell so far this season (.227-14-42-50-9), that even people in keeper leagues are worried about his long term value. Immensely talented, no so quiet whispers pen him as “soft.” After an impressive rookie season and a second year flop, there may be no one in the game with more to prove.

Rios was an abject failure hitting .227 with 13 homers, 44 RBI, 64 runs scored and 11 steals. How bad were things? His .265 OBP was .010 points below his career batting average. Too talented to do this again, his BABIP (.237 versus a career .306 mark) should rebound next season, so don’t overlook him on draft day 2012.

Upton had another outstanding season for the D’backs. He posted his second 20/20 season with a career best 31 homers and 21 steals, and he also scored a career-high 105 runs. Throw in that .289 average and .898 OPS and we have an excellent all-around performer who just might be able to take his game up another notch.

Ethier hit .292 with a .368 OBP, right on his career averages (.291 and .364). Unfortunately, he hit a meager 11 homers, knocked in only 62 runs and scored just 67 times. There’s no way of sugarcoating what was a poor season made even worse by how well it started out (he hit .380 over his first 28 games).

Pence ended the year with the Phillies after getting out of the exile that was playing for the Astros. All told he had yet another, well, Pence like season resulting in 22 homers, 97 RBI, 84 runs, eight steals an a .314 average. The average an RBI marks were career bests for the ultra consistent performer.

Upton had another up and down effort for the Rays as he hit a mere .243 with a third straight season of 150+ Ks. However, he also was one homer and one RBI off his career bests (he hit 23 bombs with 81 RBIs), scored 82 runs and swiped 36 bases. He was one of the more productive outfielders in baseball if you could look past the batting average.

Suzuki finally lost it, and by “it” I don’t mean his virginity, I mean his streak of hitting .300 with 200 hits as he batted .272 with 184 hits to end his 10-year run. He still offered production with 80 runs and 40 steals, but given the cost it took to acquire him on draft day he was a substantial disappointment.

Werth was always going to lose some of his production moving from a great park with a great lineup in Philly, but he really stunk it up in certain respects in 2011. It’s fair to say he had some value, he was only one steal short of a 20/20 effort, but he hit .232, posted a 7-year low in OBP (.330) and only drove in 58 runs after averaging 92 the previous two seasons.

Bruce hit an impressive 32 homers, fell just three RBI short of his first 100 RBI campaign, and scored a career best 84 runs. Still, he was wildly inconsistent driving his owners mad (.342-12-33 in May, .241-11-40 over his last 69 games).

Victorino just goes out and gets it done year after year. He hit .279, spot on his career mark, and for the fourth straight year scored at least 84 runs (he had 95) while he hit 17 homers (one off his career best), and stole 19 bags (though that was a 5-year low).

Young hit an awful .236 including a stupefyingly low .193 in the second half, but the guy still did his best Mike Cameron impersonation with 20 homers, 71 RBI, 89 runs scored and 22 steals.

Busts: Carl Crawford #2, Shin-Soo Choo #9, Jason Heyward #10, Alex Rios #11, Andre Ethier #13, Ichiro Suzuki #16, Jayson Werth #17

There were so many busts in the outfield, I’m not even gonna list any “hits.”

By Ray Flowers

Still Making a Difference

It’s that time of year where things can fall apart at a moments notice. Troy Tulowitzki is likely out for a couple of days with a hip issue, while teammate Todd Helton continues to battle back woes. Jimmy Rollins is back in action, but he’s going to be worked into the lineup slowly getting more time than usual on the bench (sounds like he could sit two of the next six games). So what do you do? Who can you count on at this point? Let me point out a few guys that might be worth a look.

Willie Bloomquist, D’Backs
With Stephen Drew out, Willie is seeing a lot of playing time. Willie’s batting .350 thew past three weeks with four steals and eight runs scored. He’s little more than a depth play in mixed leagues, but he’s going well right now.

Nick Evans, Mets
He has been a run producing beast the past three weeks with three homers and 15 RBI. He’s also not killing anyone with his .286 batting average.

David Murphy, Rangers
Everyone was nervous when Nelson Cruz was activated from the DL, but now comes word that the Rangers are going to play it safe with their always injured slugger and he’s only going to pinch hit for the next few days. This means Murphy will continue to play everyday for at least another week. Murphy has two 4-hit games in his last six outings and three in his last 10 games. In that time he’s also gone deep four times with 11 RBI and 10 runs scored. There simply aren’t many batters hitting any better right now.

Ramon Santiago, Tigers
I know, you could care less about this guy, but if you’re in need of a batting average boost, there are many, many worse options right now. Ramon is hitting .346 over his last 52 at-bats, and he’s even tossed in two homers and 11 RBI.

Some other batters who are killing it even without daily playing time the past three weeks.

Yonder Alonso has no spot on the field, but he clearly knows what he’s doing with a bat in his hands. Alonso has 14 hits in his last 41 at-bats leading to a .342 average. Funny thing, that’s actually worse than his .386 mark on the year for the Reds.

Mike Aviles has nine hits in his last 20 at-bats (.450). Why he isn’t seeing more playing time over Jed Lowrie (0-for-16 and 1-for-24) is a bit of a mystery.

Bryan LaHair has 11 hits in 24 at-bats leading to a .458 average. After hitting .331 with 38 homers in Triple-A this year the only question right now is why isn’t he playing everyday?

Where do you rank Andre Ethier for next year?
-  @k_roccco

Ethier’s year is over because of a situation with his knee that will require surgery, but he should be 100 percent well before the start of games in 2012. Ethier has had a rocky path dealing with the Dodgers front office and coaching staff, and being that he is arbitration eligible next season, and set to become a free agent in 2013, it’s quite possible that the Dodgers might be inclined to move him. A move out of LA would only help Ethier since he could (a) use a fresh start and (b) enjoy himself more fully in a park that more readily favored offensive production.

Ethier was a disappointment this season in some respects while living up to expectations in others. His batting average of .292 was a point better than his career mark, and his .368 OBP was .004 better than his career mark there (.364). However, after 3-straight years of at least 20 homers he slumped to just 11 this season, while his 3-year run of at least 77 RBI also ended (he had a mere 62). Considering that he has no stolen base speed, he didn’t even swipe one base this year, his effort was nothing more than a middling one for an outfielder, something like a 5th outfielder in a 12 team mixed league.

Can Ethier bounce back in 2012? Certainly. He’s just 29 years old and will presumably be in full health. You’d also have to expect his fly ball ratio to climb back from a career worst 31 percent (career 36.3) and for his HR/F to also inch back upward (it was 9.2 percent this year after three years in a row above 13.5 percent). He still shouldn’t be looked at as a 30 homer bat, and he wont steal any bases, but if his normal power returns in 2012 he could be a top-25 outfielder yet again.

By Ray Flowers

Is It Safe?

Just when you thought it was safe to back into the water — that was a tag line from the movie Jaws, a timeless classic about a rogue great white shark with a taste for human flesh (it’s still a great flick after all these years). In a similar vein, just when you thought it was safe to give up on the slumping Andre Ethier — he goes out outs together a modest 4-game hitting that includes six hits, three runs, a homer, and five RBI over his last two outings. His production has been as unsteady as a boat in the high seas as he hit .385 in April, just .244 in August, and has hit a mere .221 with one homer in 140 at-bats against lefties. Still, with a solid final month of health he could hit .300 with 70 RBI and 80 runs scored, so it hasn’t been a total washout (he’s hitting .294 with 56 RBI and 65 runs scored).

How good is Roy Halladay? Not only does he have 6-straight years of 16 victories and twice as many wins (185) as loses (91) in his career, but he’s a consistency beast. In 2010 he had a 2.44 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and .245 BAA. In 2011 those numbers are 2.47, 1.04 and .243. You have copious amounts of success when you post a 7.30 and 7.64 K/BB ratio (his marks in 2010 and 2011). In case you were wondering, Halladay’s worst monthly ERA was 3.00 in May, and his worst WHIP total was his 1.17 mark from the just finished month of August. Felix Hernandez, one of the best pitchers in the game, has season long marks of 3.37 and 1.20.

Justin Morneau is suffering some minor concussion related symptoms so he is going to be shut down for a few days. I wish the guy all the best because the man has been beat down by injury over the past year. Over his 68 games played this season he’s batting .227 with four homers and 30 RBI and a .618 OPS.

Sergio Santos has been dynamic for the White Sox this year to help stabilize a bullpen that was disastrous at the start of the year. Santos has a 12.68 K/9 mark, has allowed only three homers over 54.2 innings, and has converted 28 of 32 save chances. He’s also allowed just one run over his last 17 outings.

Tim Stauffer gave up seven runs while recording only five outs Tuesday. Blowups like that happen on occasion, but the truly amazing part of his outing is that he gave up all those runs while allowing one measly hit. How is that possible you say? Well, he walked seven batters (as an aside, what kind of manager leaves his pitcher in the game to walk seven batters?). Stauffer walked in a run when Hiroki Kuroda was issued a free pass. That finally got Stauffer removed from the game. Luckily for Timbo, Anthony Bass came into the game and allowed a salami (three of the runs were Stauffer’s).Tim’s ERA went from 3.42 to 3.76 with the outing.

Stephen Strasburg will make his triumphant comeback from Tommy John surgery when he takes the hill for the Nats on September 6th. Strasburg should have success right away, his stuff is simply too good not to, but avoid getting too far ahead of yourself. He’s dominated in the minors with 25 Ks and just three walks in 14.1 innings, and his fastball is sitting regularly at 96 mph, but he’s still yet to throw 75 pitches in a minor league outing. That sounds an awful lot like he will be a five inning pitcher to me for the rest of this season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 4, 2011

(1) Orlando Hudson (hamstring) to the DL. Logan Forsythe to replace him.

(2) Brandon Lyon imploding for Astros. Time to add Mark Melancon?

(3) Andre Ethier (elbow) on shelf. Hitting streak intact.

(4) Jonathan Broxton (elbow) shut down. Who will Dodgers turn to – Hong-Chih Kuo, Vicente Padilla or someone else?

(5) Scott Sizemore starting at 2B for Tigers.

(6) Francisco Liriano’s no-hitter.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 27, 2011

(1) Andre Ethier has record 24-game hitting streak.

(2) Dodgers have no clue in 9th inning.

(3) Carlos Santana really struggling

(4) Reliever closing in on returns – Andrew Bailey, David Aardsma.

By Ray Flowers

History Comes in Three's

Ichiro beats you to death with singles, Bautista with his blasts, and the San Francisco Giants pitcher’s are beating down every offense they face.

Ichiro Makes History

Ichiro Suzuki racked up his 200th hit today. There are a whole host of interesting tidbits around that effort, and here are a few.

* He has 200 hits in all 10 of his big league seasons
* He is the first player to ever have 10-straight 200 hits seasons.
* Only Ichiro and Pete Rose have had ten 200 hit seasons.
* Since the 2001 season began he has 2,229 hits. Obviously that’s an average of nearly 230 hits a year(with more than a week left in the season, he’ll clearly push that mark even higher).
* Since 2001, no other big leaguer has more than 1,906 hits – Derek Jeter.

Hats off to you Ichiro.

Jose Bautista Hits #50

Jose Bautista hit his 50th homer today, a fact that I spoke to as a forgone conclusion earlier this week in History is at Hand. Here are some tidbits surrounding the remarkable achievement from the man that hit a total of 43 homers the past three years.

* Bautista is the 26th player ever to hit 50 homers in a season.
* He has hit all 50 of his homer to left or left center.
* He has hit 31 homers at home.
* He has hit 26 homers since the All-Star break. Remember, he had never before hit even 17 in a season.

Let’s put those numbers in perspective.

Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Hank Aaron, Ryan Howard and Barry Bonds never hit 50 homers in a season (Bonds is cheating – how apropos – as he hit 73 one year though he never actually had a season of between 50-72 homers).

Bautista has 31 homers at home. Here is a list of players who haven’t hit 31 homers this season no matter the locale: Ryan Howard (30), Prince Fielder (30), Mark Teixeira (30), Adrian Gonzalez (29), Matt Holliday (27) and Troy Tulowitzki (26) to name a few.

Here is a list of players who haven’t hit 26 homers, Bautista’s total in the second half in a mere 63 games: David Wright (25), Ryan Zimmerman (25), Jayson Werth (25), Alex Rodriguez (25), Matt Kemp (23), Ryan Braun (23) and Andre Ethier (23).

Yeah, I just threw up a little bit in my mouth too.

One last thought. Ichiro had his 200th hit, and Bautista hit his 50th bomb — in the same game. Don’t you love the symmetry of that?

Giants’ Starters are Aces

The Giants are a half game out of first place behind the San Diego Padres, but the blame for rests solely on the offense and not the dominating pitchers that the team has been running out there.

* The Giants have allowed three of fewer runs in 16-straight games, and that ties single season league record, since 1920 when the “live ball” was introduced. The other two teams to go 16 consecutive games were the 1972 Indians and the 1981 Athletics (the 1942-43 Reds did have a stretch of 20-games).

* The club hasn’t allowed more than four runs in 21-straight, and that is tied for the fifth longest in the live ball era, and the longest streak since the ’81 A’s. The record is 25-straight games by the 1942-43 Cubs, with the single season mark being 23 games by the 1972 Cubs.

* Since August 28th the starting rotation has posted a 2.06 ERA and held batters to a .191 batting average against.

* Over their last 10 starts the rotation has a 1.32 ERA.

So how in the world are the Giants 5-5 in their last 10 games? The blame rests squarely on an offense that he been shut out four times in 10 games. The offense has also produced one or zero runs in eight of the last 13 games.

One last note about the Giants.
They are a major league best 74-22 when they score three or more runs.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 11, 2010

(1) Giants trade for Mike Fontenot.

(2) Curtis Granderson to revamp swing.

(3) Ryan Braun (wrist) takes swings in the cage.

(4) Gordon Beckham (groin) back in lineup.

(5) Placido Polanco will try to play through elbow injury.

(6) Astros have trouble in the 9th inning.

(7) Matt Kemp out of the Lineup Again. Should you be concerned?

By Ray Flowers