Hot Stove: December 7th, 2011

Rumors are flying at the Winter Meetings, but there are a few deals that have actually been completed.

Huston Street was believed to have been dealt to the Padres as the club from southern California was thought to have done a great job covering up for the loss of Heath Bell to the Marlins. However, reports are now circulating that not only is the deal not complete but the Rockies are still in active negotiations with at least one other team about Street. We’ll wait an see how this plays out, but it’s a certainty that Street will be dealt as the Rockies feel confident that Rafael Betancourt can handle the 9th inning.

*UPDATE: The deal sending Street to the Padres was finally ratified. Street will serve as the closer for the Padres in 2012.

Erik Bedard is an impressive hurler when he is capable of dragging his weary bones onto the field. Last season he may have gone 5-9 but he also posted a 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and an 8.70 K/9 mark proving how effective he could be. However, the downside is that he only made 24 starts covering 129.1 innings (his biggest innings pitched mark in four seasons). The Pirates have decided to look past the litany of injuries to sign Bedard to relatively painless 1-year deal for $4.5 million. It’s a nice signing if he can stay healthy.

Frank Francisco has agreed to a 2-year deal with the Mets with reports suggesting he will be paid about $12 million. The Mets also signed Jon Rauch to help to bolster their bullpen, but the arm to target in the fantasy game is Francisco. The projected closer in 2012, Francisco owns an electric arm but he’s struggled to stay healthy and consistent when on the mound. Still, the guy has 368 Ks in 334 career innings, and the past three years he’s brought his walk total down to the major league average (3.01 per nine). He’s got a chance to be a solid closer for the Metropolitans.

Nate McLouth signed a 1-year deal with the Pirates for a reported $1.75 million. McLouth had his greatest success as a Pirate before a couple of somewhat troubled seasons in Atlanta where his production was terrible and he struggled to stay healthy. Still just 30 years old, McLouth was a fantasy standout just a few seasons ago as he averaged 23 homers, 99 runs scored, 82 RBI and 21 steals over the 2008-09 campaigns.

The Giants and Mets made a deal that saw them exchange outfielders that have followed similar paths. The deal is this: the Giants receive Angel Pagan while the Mets pick up Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez. The reliever, Ramirez, is a solid NL-only arm in the fantasy game, but this deal is all about the outfielders. In 2010 both were fantasy all-stars, but both slumped in 2011. Torres has more power than Pagan, but his OPS dropped to .643 last season as he looked lost for long stretches of time. Pagan, who hit .290 and stole 37 bags in 2010, fell to .262 with 32 steals last season. Given the dearth of athleticism in the Giants’ lockeroom Pagan figures to hit at the top of the order for the G-Men. For the Giants sake, I certainly hope they don’t think that adding Pagan and Melky Cabrera gives them enough offense to compliment their wonderful pitching.

Still Twisting

Albert Pujols is apparently leaning toward returning to St. Louis as reports suggest that the Cards and Marlins both offered him very similar contracts.

Prince Fielder is the bat that teams will focus on adding when the Pujols situation is resolved. I’ve been hearing that the Blue Jays, Mariners and Marlins (if they lose out on Pujols) might be the two most aggressive teams to add the portly slugger.

Andrew Bailey and Gio Gonzalez are said to be available, but teams will have to “overpay” the Athletics to add their services. At the moment, it looks like the market for Gonzalez is more active.

Aramis Ramirez to the Brewers is the hot rumor right now. It makes a lot of sense given that Prince Fielder will not be back and that the Brew Crew do not want to have to count on Casey McGehee rebounding in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Giants, Royals Deal

The Giants added a bat, something everyone knows that they need, while dealing away a problem child who might have had the best arm on the team. The Giants also managed to do something that I always tell people not to do in the fantasy game. What boner did they pull? The sold low and bought high. Maybe they should spend some more time reading my stuff.

The Deal:
Giants Receive: Melky Cabrera
Royal Receive: Jonathan Sanchez and Ryan Verdugo

Cabrera had the best season of a rather undistinguished career in 2011 as he hit .305 with 18 homers, 20 steals, 87 RBI and 102 runs scored. He also racked up 201 hits to impress everyone. However, this is what I see. Cabrera had success because of the copious plate appearance total. I mean, he had 706 of them (the 11th most in baseball). As a result, he was able to post career bests in RBI, runs, hits, doubles (44), homers etc. In terms of his ratios, his BB-rate of 5.0 percent was a career worst. His K-rate of 13.3 percent was a career worst. His .339 OBP was only .008 better than his career rate. His 1.44 GB/FB ratio was just off his career mark of 1.52. His line drive rate of 20.3 percent was only slightly above his 19.4 percent career mark. He also posted a career-high of .332 in the BABIP category, .033 points better than his career average and the first time he had a mark in the .300′s since 2006. It was a strong year in terms of his fantasy value, but in terms of his real world performance his success was largely a factor of those 706 PAs and not because of growth in his game.

Sanchez was a strong performer in 2010 when he went 13-9 with a 3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 205 Ks in 193.1 innings. Last season he regressed. Not only was he limited to just 101.1 innings with issues with his elbow, he also saw his K/9 mark go down half a batter (it was still an impressive 9.06), while his terrible BB/9 rate (4.47 in 2010) shot up well past pathetic into the realm of atrocious (5.86). So instead of trading him coming off his best season, the Giants held on and ended up having top deal him at his lowest point in four years. Great move guys. Sanchez still owns dominating stuff, but until he does a better job of throwing strikes it just won’t matter. If he were able to get his walk rate under control, and to this point the best BB/9 mark he’s ever had is 4.27 in 2008 – a full batter above the big league average mind you – Sanchez would be one of the better left-handed starting pitchers in baseball. Unfortunately, he’s shown little consistency in his career and the results are a mediocre WHIP (1.39) and ERA (4.26). At this point he’s mostly potential and little substance.

Verdugo is a left-handed starter much in the same mold as Sanchez. He throws hard, his K/9 mark is in the double digits during his minor league career (11.1), but he’s also walking far too many batters leading to 4.5 BB/9 mark. When he’s locked in few can hit him, but far too often he ends up beating himself. He’s not a lock to contribute with the Royals this season either as he has thrown just 130.1 innings at the Double-A level.

If everything comes together for Sanchez the Giants will rue the day they made this deal. It will also end up looking bad if they (a) fail to sign Cabrera to a long term deal (he’s a free agent after the 2012 season), or (b) if Cabrera returns to being the hitter he was for his entire career prior to 2011. As stated, much of what Cabrera accomplished in 2011 was the result, NOT of improvements in his game, but because of all those extra plate appearances an a rather fortuitous BABIP mark. The data seem to favor a regression in the batting average (career .275), in the homer category (he’d never hit more than 17 homers in back-to-back seasons before hitting 18 in 2011), and in the steals department for Melky (he’d never stolen more than 13 bags in a season, and with 10 caught stealing last year in 30 attempts he really didn’t add anything to the offense). The Giants needed a bat and Cabrera fills that need, but let’s hope the Giants realize that they would be lucky to get a repeat effort out of Cabrera in 2012 so they still have a lot of work to do to bolster an offense that was the club’s undoing in 2011.

Final Notes

The Giants’ outfield might be Cabrera in center, Nate Schierholtz in right and ??? They could be interested in bringing back Carlos Beltran and/or Andres Torres/Cody Ross, but for now the look of the outfield is one of a second division club. If it’s Aubrey Huff in left and Brandon Belt at first base, would that make you feel any better? Me neither.

Lorenzo Cain will likely open the 2012 season as the Royals starting center fielder. After hitting .312 with 16 homers, 81 RBI, 84 runs and 16 steals at Triple-A in 2011, he’s someone to remember in the later rounds of mixed league drafts – he’s got the skills to offer a substantial season in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

World Series: Giants vs. Rangers

With the 2010 World Series set to start today I will go through the lineups of the San Francisco Giants and the Texas Rangers to see which club has the advantage.

Oh, and if you are in search of that link for the NL Rookie of the Year, well, there you go.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: NLCS Preview

Ray Flowers breaks down the National League Championship Series with a position by position breakdown of the Phillies and the Giants. Here is a link to the ALCS Preview in case you missed it.

By Ray Flowers

Random Thoughts

I felt like doing some random commentary today so what follows, in no particular order, follows that line of thought. – or better yet no line of thought.

I wrote about Andres Torres today in an IMPACT REPORT on Wednesday. I got a very well thought out email from a reader today which pointed out that sometimes guys get labeled as one thing (organizational depth) and never have a chance to bust out from that mold. I certainly agree, but I’m still sticking by what I said in the piece that I’m just not sold that he will be able to sustain his growth this season moving forward. One other little known fact – Torres uses the biggest bat on the Giants (35 inches, 33 ounces). Not bad for a guy who barely checks in at 190 lbs.

Yesterday I wrote about how Albert Pujols has a good chance to win the Triple Crown this season. However, as I was thinking about things today, I was struck by something rather amazing. As great as Pujols has been, and you can make the argument that no player has ever had a better 10-year run to start their career in the history of the game, it’s utterly amazing to think the following:

Albert Pujols has only led the league in average once (.359 in 2003).
Albert Pujols has only lead the league in homers once (47 last year).
Albert Pujols has NEVER led the league in RBI.

Isn’t that amazing? That means that Pujols has only led in the Triple Crown categories twice in his career. Hell, Dante Bichette pulled off that trick in 1995 when he led the NL in homers (40) and RBI (128).

Have you seen Madison Bumgarner in person? That is one big boy. Listed at 6’4″, 215 lbs, he is every bit of that. He might still get bigger too. The kid is only 21 years old (he reached that age just over three weeks ago). Don’t know how he gave up three first inning homers to the Reds on Wednesday though. Despite the rough outing, he still has an extremely bright future, and with his loose arm action I’m looking at him as a potentially dominating ace on the hill now that his fastball is back in the 93-94 mph range.

The last 30 days Garrett Jones is hitting .165, the worst mark in baseball, just ahead of the .170 total posted by Felipe Lopez. If you add up those two marks you end up at .335 which is a mere .121 points worse than the .456 mark of Joe Mauer. The previously mentioned Mr. Pujols leads the NL with a .398 mark.

Joey Votto is here to stay as a top fantasy option, and don’t let anyone tell you otherwise. The man has a smooth stroke and isn’t afraid to go the other way. He should be a .300 hitter with 30 homers for years to come.

Brennan Boesch has scored four runs the past 30 days despite coming to the plate 104 times. That’s putrid.

I know Jose Bautista has gone deep 40 times, and dating back to last season he has 50 homers in his last 154 games, but are you buying this power surge? After all, the guy hit just 43 homers the past three years over 1,238 at-bats. So again, are you buying this? I put the over/under on his homer total at 31 for 2010.

Homer Bailey is still just 24 years old. Who knew?

Shin-Soo Choo is hitting .291 with 15 homers, 60 RBI, 59 runs and 15 steals despite spending some time on the DL this season. While that level of offensive production may not sound overwhelming, it should be pointed out that he is one of only four men in the game who are hitting .290 with at least 15 homers and 15 steals. The others are Carlos Gonzalez, David Wright and Evan Longoria.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

Did you know that I’m tall (6’3″)? Did you know that I wear size 13 shoes? Did you know that I have a rule that I don’t get up before the sun? I know that isn’t the type of did you know that you were planning to read, so before I lull you into a semi-comatose state with more mundane “Ray facts” let’s get to the meat of this piece.

Mike Napoli leads all catchers with 20 homers. Only 12 of those bombs have come as a catcher, eight have come as a first basemen, but you get the point. Moreover, the 20 homers from a catcher eligible player are more than the combined total of Buster Posey (nine) and Joe Mauer (eight) who are hitting a combined .335.

Albert Pujols is pushing for the NL Triple Crown with a .319 average (third – Joey Votto leads the league at .323), 33 homers (first) and 92 RBI (first). He’s also second in the league in OPS at 1.013 (two percentage points behind Votto). But did you know… Albert Pujols also leads all first basemen in the game with 12 steals. And he’s having a down season?

There isn’t a single second basemen, who qualifies for the batting title, who has an OBP of .400 as Robinson Cano has a .390 mark. Can also leads the position with a .326 batting average, a .568 SLG, a .958 OPS, 35 doubles and 87 RBI. Yeah, Cano has been pretty good, which is kinda like saying that Adrianna Lima is hot.

Casey McGehee has been insanely good given his draft day cost. McGehee has hit 20 homers this season which just so happens to be one less than Alex Rodriguez. Moreover, McGehee has more homers than a litany of fantasy stars at the hot corner; Michael Young (19), Kevin Youkilis (19), David Wright (19), Aramis Ramirez (19) and Evan Longoria (18). Casey’s total of 82 RBI is also more than Wright (81), Mark Reynolds (71), Young (70), Ryan Zimmerman (70).
Yunieksy Betancourt has more RBI (61) than any shortstop in the American League. Read that again to make sure you’ve got it. For that matter, any idea who leads NL shortstops in RBI? In another minor miracle, it’s Juan Uribe (66). Let’s keep building on the craziness. I haven’t even mentioned the man who leads all shortstops in RBI – Alex Gonzalez who has 70. He had 50 as a member of the Blue Jays and 20 as a member of the Braves.
Brennan Boesch hit .342 with 12 homers and a .990 OPS in 65 games before the All-Star break. Since that point he has played 37 games and he his hit a sickly .145 with two homers and a .429 OPS. Think about that. He has literally been less than half the player he was in the first half.

Juan Pierre has 49 steals leaving him one short of a fifth season of at least 50 thefts. Since he began his career in 2000, there are only two men that can rival that level of production. Jose Reyes has four 50-steal seasons in that time whereas Carl Crawford has five 50-steal efforts. Mr. Crawford needs nine more steals this season to push his career mark to six 50-steal seasons.

The Giants’ Andres Torres is having a special season. Amongst players who qualify as a right fielder, Torres is sixth in OPS (.866), sixth in OBP (.370) and seventh in SLG (.499). Torres also has scored 71 runs – one more than Justin Upton – and his total of 23 steals makes him one of only five qualifiers at the position with at least 20 (Ichiro Suzuki, Angel Pagan, Will Venable and Ben Zobrist).

Everyone has been talking about Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson, but has anyone noticed who is leading the AL in ERA this season with a 2.26 mark? The answer is none other than Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox. Clay hasn’t given up an earned run in his last three starts, and five times in his last nine trips to the hill he has emerged unscathed. Not bad for a guy who entered the year with a grand total of 36 games under his belt.

Not many have taken notice, but Neftali Feliz is about to make history. After tossing a total of 31 innings last season, Neftali still qualifies for the AL Rookie of the Year award. If that isn’t cool enough, how about the fact that he is a mere seven saves from setting an all-time rookie record. The current mark is 37 held by Kaz Sasaki. Of course, Sasaki was 32 years old when he came to the States after a career of success in Japan, so that number really shouldn’t count – at least in this scribes book.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 23, 2010

(1) Stephen Strasburg headed to DL on Thursday with strained flexor tendon.

(2) Giants awarded Cody Ross. You can also read more about the Giaints’ outfield situation at GoldenGateGiants.com.

(3) Johnny Damon awarded to the Red Sox.

(4) Manny Ramirez likely to be placed on waivers this week.

(5) Ricky Nolasco (knee) might be done for the year.

By Ray Flowers

MLB: Ups and Downs

Day 2 of the major league season has been a bore (OK, it was Day 3, but the first day only had the Yankees and Red Sox playing, so you know what I mean). A day after all that excitement, the Albert Pujols homers, the 6-inning no-hit bid from Shaun Marcum, and the homer in his first major league at-bat from Jason Heyward, everyone was fired up. Roughly 24 hours later, it’s like your dog died. Major league baseball, in it’s unfailing wisdom, scheduled seven games for the second full day of games, but not a single one was scheduled to start before 7:10 PM EST. That’s right. A day after all of that excitement to kick off the campaign, major league baseball didn’t schedule a single day game, not one. I’m all for making a buck, but seriously MLB, how greedy can you be? Schedule a flipping day game. There is no excuse, none, that there should ever be a day in which at least one game is played during the day. I don’t care about TV rights or gate receipts, baseball was meant to be played during the day under the sun. So get with it MLB – some things are more important than the almighty dollar.

Zack Greinke hurled two run ball over six innings on Monday against the Tigers but wound up with a no decision when the bullpen blew his lead. That isn’t overly surprising for Greinke who was let down frequently last year. Amazingly, Greinke has allowed one or zero earned runs in 19 of his last 34 starts. That’s 56 percent of his starts since the beginning of the 2009 season.

Scott Kazmir was “very surprised” to learn that some shoulder weakness landed him on the DL to start the year. I’m only surprised that Kazmir still has a shoulder.

Casey Kotchman hitting third for the Mariners? Maybe they should have kept Russell Branyan after all.

Tim Lincecum was questioned about his struggles in camp both with velocity and results. After tossing seven shutout innings in dominating the Astros, no one is saying anything today.

Anyone else hate doing drafts on computers? The other day I was doing an AL-only auction and my computer crashed in the middle. I returned to learn that I missed out on Joba Chamberlain and Magglio Ordonez, two players I had been targeting in the middle rounds to get on the cheap. I did land Matt Guerrier though, and for $4, even though I didn’t have him in my queue, so I have no idea how he ended up on my squad. At least the computer didn’t give me Jason Berken for $4.

Jon Rauch has been named the closer with the Twins. He has some experience in the role and is a decent choice to fill in for the injured Joe Nathan. At the same time, he clearly shouldn’t be looked at as someone who has the job locked down. I just wish Pat Neshek was fully healthy (he is coming back from arm surgery though he has looked good so far).

Jose Reyes is still targeting a return to the Mets this weekend after an extended minor league game on Monday. In related news, the Mets are hoping that Oliver Perez can find the strike zone before then.

You gotta feel for the Giants’ Nate Schierholtz. Thought to be the man in right field after biding his time the past few years, he ended up struggling in spring and lost his starting spot to John Bowker who led the club in homers and RBI. Though you may not think things could get worse for Nate they did on Tuesday when the Giants, facing the Astros’ lefty Wandy Rodriguez, decided to go with Andres Torres in right field essentially meaning that Nate is the third right fielder at the moment. Schierholtz has the highest upside of that trio and still profiles as a decent outfield option in NL-only leagues, though I will admit the start to the 2010 season is certainly distressing.

Huston Street got good news on his injured shoulder. It doesn’t look like it will fly off at any point in the near future according to Dr. James Andrews. Street still hopes to return to the Rockies in early May, though who knows when he will be able to reclaim his ninth inning role from Franklin Morales.

By Ray Flowers