Fantasy Baseball: Early Returns

The 2013 baseball season is finally underway. The story of the first few days of the season is the success of starting pitchers, highlighted by the near run to perfection from Yu Darvish (more on that below). However, that doesn’t mean it’s only been about pitching, there are still some offensive moments of note, so I’ll basically be doing what I often do – rambling without rhythm or reason around the diamond.

The Padres sound like a team that plans on pulling a Medlen with Andrew Cashner. By that I mean it sounds like the Padres will use Cashner out of the bullpen early before slowly transitioning him into the starting rotation. By doing just that they will help to ensure that Cashner is healthy and not overworked in the early going while also helping to limit the total number of innings on his arm (Cashner was limited to 15.1 innings and 2011 and 69.2 last season so it might be a wise decision to try to keep the innings down). For now the Padres will go with Tyson Ross but Cashner could be a starter for half the year if he proves himself to be healthy an effective.

Yu Darvish almost made history last night coming within one out of the 24th perfect game in big league history. The highlights. (1) His first walk free outing in the big leagues. (2) A career-high 14 Ks including strikeouts 14 of the 16 times he reached two strikes on a batter. No pitcher has ever tossed a perfect game in his first outing of the season. One other note. Going back nine starts to last season Darvish has a 2.05 ERA. A fantasy ace is being born folks.

R.A. Dickey walked four batters in his first start with the Blue Jays, something he did only two times in 33 starts in 2012. Dickey allowed four runs, three earned, as he picked up a loss to the Indians. After the game he has a 4.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP and I hate to tell you that I think he might finish the year with numbers closer to that than the 2.73 and 1.05 marks he posted last season.

Jaime Garcia actually looked pretty good in his first outing holding the D’backs to just two hits and one run in 5.2 innings. I still don’t trust him, and neither should you.

Through two games the Rockies have two fellas who have gone deep twice – Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez. As always, as long as they stay healthy they will be huge performers. Just for the fun of it here are each fellas 162 game averages.

Tulo: .292-29-103-103-12
CarGo: .300-28-98-106-24

Matt Kemp doesn’t have a hit in 5-straight games. I don’t think that streak will last much longer.

Lynn Collins in the movie John Carter… absolutely stunning.

Leonys Martin is starting in center field for the Rangers Wednesday. Martin is sharing time in center with Craig Gentry, but Martin figures to be the lead dog in the race for at-bats. Martin has hit only .193 in 57 big league at-bats, but he’s got skills and killed it last year in Triple-A (.359-12-42-48-10 in just 55 games). There’s a very talented fantasy performer lurking here despite the fact that he is owned in only 49 percent of Fleaflicker leagues.

Happy Birthday Jeff (my brother). We’re two years and two days apart, and even though he is my younger brother I’ve never given him much crap cause he is such a cool dude.

Michael Morse hit two home runs Tuesday night continuing the onslaught of fireworks that occurred in Spring Training. Morse hit .303 with 31 homers in 2011 so we know that he can ball, but let me note a few things you should remember. Morse has had a K-rate over 21 percent each of the past five seasons. He relies on a high BABIP to help him in the batting average category (.344 for his career). Morse also owns a career fly ball rate of 32 percent, about three percent below the league average meaning he just doesn’t hit that many fly balls. He’s always been able to convert a high percentage of those fly balls into homers, his HR/F ratio is 18.6 percent but if that number were to dip even a bit he would have a very tough time pushing 30 homers.

By Ray Flowers

Winter Meetings Wrap Up

There were plenty of big names thrown around town, chief among them Josh Hamilton and Zack Greinke, but in the end there were no earth shattering moves at the Baseball Winter Meetings. There were a handful of moves involving useful players however, so let’s take a moment to wrap up the meetings, and the week, by looking at some of that movement.

Joe Blanton, who I’ll have a write up on in the coming days, signed a two year, $15 million deal with the Angels. He’s no Zack Greinke but he’s a solid hurler, durable, and the terms of the deal certainly aren’t prohibitive by any means. Many think this is a bad deal based on his 4.71 ERA last season but I’m telling you his ERA should have been a run lower last season than it was. Solid.

Sean Burnett received a two year deal for $8 million from the Angels who are amassing one hell of a bullpen. Not just that, but I don’t know how the Angels convinced him to take so little after Jeremy Affeldt received 3/$18 million from the Giants. Burnett struck out 57 batters in 56.2 innings with an impressive 4.75 K/BB ratio, not to mention a superb 2.51 GB/FB ratio, for the Nationals last season.

Andrew Cashner failed to be the breakout candidate many hoped for last season as injuries limited him to a mere 46.1 innings. Still, he punched out 52 batters in 46.1 innings, and there is a lot of excitement about him starting for the Padres in 2013. Unfortunately, he’s unlikely to be ready for spring after a hunting accident. Apparently a friend slipped on the trip, fell, and sliced the thumb of Cashner with his knife necessitating surgery that will likely keep Andrew out of action for about three months. I’m not going to say it serves him right, but honestly, I just don’t get hunting, at all. If you need to eat that’s one thing, but what is the sport in shooting an animal that is just standing there? Sorry, just don’t get it.

Ben Revere was dealt from the Twins to the Phillies in exchange for Vance Worley and minor leaguer Trevor May. It seems very odd to me that the Twins would deal Denard Span and Revere within a week of one another (for more on Span see his Player Profile). Clearly, the Twins have no intention of competing in 2013 and are desperate for starting pitching. Revere, looking pretty much like a direct Juan Pierre clone, hit .294 with 40 steals in 124 games last season. He’ll never hit for power and may never get on base at a rate much better than the league average, but his speed makes him a superb play in the fantasy game. As for the Twins, their outfield is in shambles. It’s looking like Josh Willingham, Trevor Plouffe and… Brandon Hicks? GM Terry Ryan also stated that Darin Mastroianni and Joe Benson will battle for a starting spot with Hicks, but that doesn’t really help matters much now does it. Can feel the excitement? The Twins, they receive May who has struck out more than 11 batters per nine innings in the minors, and if everything breaks right could be a #3 starter in the bigs. The Twins are hoping that Vance Worley is the real deal. Worley is coming back from elbow surgery in September as he had some loose bodies and a bone spur removed. Everyone is confident he will be healthy by spring. Worley owns some solid numbers – 7.71 K/9, 2.45 K/BB, 1.28 GB/FB ratio – even if nothing really stands out. Best case he’ll be a weak SP2, but more than likely the Twins would be happy if he emerged as solid third starter for them.

Nate Schierholtz signed a one year deal with the Cubs for a reported $2.25 million ($500,000 in incentives). Having watched him play for years that’s a strong signing by the Cubs. Nate is an elite defender who is a solid hitter with a bit of speed. He’s not an exciting fantasy option, but he’s an ideal 4th outfielder in the real world who could be quite effective if given consistent work. Speaking of the Cubs. Brett Jackson, another outfielder, has revamped his swing this offseason in an attempt to cut down his massive K-rate. He’s a 20/20 talent, especially if he puts the ball in play more effectively. Finally, the Cubs gave a 1-year, $2 million deal to former power hitter Ian Stewart (it looks like he will battle Luis Valbuena for the starting job). Only in America could a guy hit .183 withfive homers an a .561 OPS over 301 at-bats the last two years and get two million dollars.

Koji Uehara received a little over $4 million to ink a one year deal with the Red Sox. Born on the same day as my brother (04-03-1975), Koji is coming off a season in which he was limited to 36 innings because of injury. However, he was as good as ever when on the bump with a 10.75 K/9 mark and just three walks on the season leading to a 14.33 K/BB ratio. That 14.33 mark was the third best mark since 1885 in a season of 35 innings pitched (only Dennis Eckersley bettered it at 18.33 and 18.25 in 1989-90). Uehara also owns the all-time big league record with a 7.70 K/BB ratio (minimum 200 innings pitched). A strong signing if he can stay healthy.

Also… some links to my recent Player Profiles of a handful of players who have switched teams in the past week (those who deserve a bit more than the passing glance most of the players in this article received).

Dan Haren

Mike Napoli

B.J. Upton

Shane Victorino

By Ray Flowers

On the Hill

It’s Monday and I’m writing this report from the FSTA Conference in San Francisco. Don’t believe any of the reports of late night gallivanting… OK, maybe you can believe some of them. Regardless how many Vodka and Red Bull’s I pulled back on last night, there’s still plenty going on in the world of baseball that deserves my, and your, attention.

When does a demotion to the minor leagues mean a guy has gained value? When that player is a pitcher who is relieving but being looked at to join the starting rotation. That’s the situation with Andrew Cashner. A middle reliever for the Padres, he’s been sent down to stretch out his arm as the club has made the decision that they need a starter who isn’t 39 years old (have you seen some of the garbage that the Padres have been running out there this year?). Cashner was hitting 100 mph in his first start of the year against the Brewers (he lasted just 2.1 innings), and he could be back by the end of the month.

R.A. Dickey has been amazing since the start of the 2010 season. In that time Dickey has taken the hill 72 times leading to a 2.97 ERA for the Mets. How impressive is that number? Among NL hurlers who have tossed 400-innings since the start of the ’10 season, Dickey’s ERA is the 6th best mark in the NL – sixth. That mark is even lower this year at 2.44 as Dickey’s knuckler is simply nearly unhittable right now. Dickey has won nine games on the year including each of his last seven decisions and he’s picked up a win in each of his last four games. In those four contests he’s gone at least seven innings each time, has allowed a total of one run, and he’s working on a 24.2 inning scoreless streak. Most amazing of all? How about the fact that he’s racked up at least eight Ks in each of his last five outings and 78 in 81 innings on the year. Knuckle ballers just aren’t supposed to be able to do that. Truly impressed am I.

Felix Hernandez (back) will take the hill Tuesday for the Mariners after missing his last turn though the rotation. After allowing nine runs in his last two outings, an at least 10 hits in three of his last five starts, King Felix has the look of a guy who has been struggling with health for a while. Still, he has 81 Ks in 81.2 innings, and his 3.42 ERA and 1.26 WHIP aren’t awful by any means given his recent slump.

Daisuke Matsuzaka won 18 games with a 2.90 ERA. Since then, he’s been worse than replacement level, just look at the numbers: 16-16, 5.08 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 1.73 K/BB. He’s  back with the Red Sox, and he did have eight Ks in five innings, but he’s got a ton of proving to do before I’d suggest anyone in a 10 or 12 team mixed league looked his way.

Kevin Millwood combined with five other Mariners pitchers to toss the 10th combined no-hitter in big league history last Friday. Why didn’t Millwood finish the game? He injured his groin making warmup tosses before the 7th inning. Good news out of Seattle in that Millwood might be able to make his next start an it’s also not likely that he will need a stint on the DL. Somehow Millwood has allowed a total of six earned runs in his last six outings. I smell a sell high opportunity here – don’t you?

Chris Sale lowered his ERA to 2.05 after eight shutout innings Saturday. He also lowered his WHIP to 0.92 for the Pale Hoes. Everyone knows how great he has been this year, but he’s been out of control of late. In his last five starts, all wins, Sale has allowed four runs. He’s also walked just seven batters while punching out 43 batters in 36.2 innings. Oh yeah, he’s also gone at least seven innings in 4-straight outings. All of this just makes that soap opera week with him being hurt, being demoted to the pen, being named the closer, and then being placed back in the rotation even more vexing. Here’s an interesting question to ponder – could a starting pitcher be sent to the bullpen and then win the Cy Young award in the same season? If Sale keeps up this pace we just might find out.

By Ray Flowers

Timing is Everything

People try to play fantasy baseball like they try to time the stock market. If it works, an it rarely does, you look like a genius. In the long run, most of the time if you just stand pat, provided of course that you have the right commodities in your portfolio, you will come out ahead. Today I’ll give my thoughts on which ballplayers you’ll want to hold on to, and which might end up disappointing you with only a moderate return on your investment.

I still find it rather surprising that so many people seem so willing to toss away Michael Bourn in trade offers. I know he has no homers and seven RBI, but folks, do you realize how good he has been otherwise? Besides hitting .333 this speedster also has a .404 OBP and he’s on pace for 108 runs scored and 59 steals. Deal him at your own peril.

Rafael Furcal is hitting .342 with 15 RBI, 22 runs scored and six steals for the Cardinals reminding everyone that he can still be a dynamic talent when healthy. However, and you know how I hate to bring bad news, the guy has failed to appear in 100 games in three of the past four years so I wouldn’t be at all adverse to anyone trading him while they can because things are bound to get ugly at some point.

Ryan Howard (Achilles), finally, took batting practice Monday for the first time since February. Howard still doesn’t have a target date for a return, but the prevailing wisdom is that he will be back in action, barring any more setbacks of course, in late May or early June. Given his rate of production the past two years – he’s averaged 32 homers and 112 RBI the past two campaigns – if he starts action on June 1st he’d be able to play in 2/3 of the Phillies games this season. That would equate to about 21 homers and 75 RBI. Of course, that’s if he hits the ground running and matches his level of production from the past two seasons. I’m not sure that is going to happen given how much time he has missed (for more on Howard see his Player Profile).

Ask around and people will tell you that Andrew McCutchen has been a major disappointment. I can’t sit here and say I’m not leaning in that direction myself, but let’s keep things in perspective. He’s one hit from batting .300 at .298 which would be a career best. His current .356 OBP is just under his career .364 rate, and that’s despite the fact that his walk rate has gone down by about 40 percent from his career level. He’s also on pace for 29 thefts after averaging 26 his first three big league seasons. The reason he’s been disappointing is that he’s gone 94 at-bats without a home run leading him to a paltry seven RBI. He’s also scored only seven times since the Pirates offense has been so anemic. I’m on record though as a big time McCutchen supporter, an I’m still in that camp.

There’s only one more show for Smash. Who will be named Marilyn – Karen Cartwright or Ivy Lynn? I can’t believe that I just admitted to the world that I actually watch Smash. Go Karen.

Remember when you were panicked because Brandon Morrow had a 4.50 ERA and just nine strikeouts in his first three starts? Hopefully you held on tight to the fire balling righty as he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over his last three starts. He’s also struck out 20 batters and walked just one in stamping himself as an arm to watch this season.

Sounds like Brad Penny faked an injury to his shoulder to get out of his two year deal with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in the Japan League (tests showed no structural damage). Count me as shocked. That guy is a joke, has been for years. Regardless, it’s only a matter of time before some team takes the plunge and signs Penny even though his performance since 2008 has been flat out bad: 31-33, 5.11 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 4.79 K/9, 1.64 K/BB.

Dale Thayer got the save for the Padres Monday night. Andrew Cashner, thought by many to be the presumptive favorite for 9th inning work with Huston Street out with a lat injury, threw 39 pitches Sunday so he was likely unavailable meaning we still don’t really know who will serve as the 9th inning arm (Luke Gregerson could also get some work). Cashner has a huge arm, but he also often has no idea where the ball is going. In 13.2 innings he struck out 12 batters but he’s also walked 12. That’s ugly. Thayer, who has more than 170 minor league saves in his minor league career, has walked only one batter in 31 big league innings as the anti-Cashner. You have to think that Cashner who is younger and has the bigger arm will get a crack at the role, but Thayer is there to pick up the pieces in the even that Cashner struggles.

By Ray Flowers