August NFBC Update

In case you missed it, and hopefully you haven’t, we here at Fanball are the new owners of F&W Media, Inc. You can read more about the deal in our National Press Release. That purchase included two of the biggest, baddest, live events in the business. For those of you interested in joining the upcoming National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC) on September 4-6, click on the link to the event. The even pays $100,000 to the overall winner, and last season almost $900,000 in prizes were awarded, so it certainly bears some investigating on your part if you aren’t already signed up.

Part of that deal also included our purchase of the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFBC), and with our purchase of F&W this will be the last time I’m allowed to play in either event (something about conflict of interest or whatever). Still, I’m in it to win it over the next month and a half in the baseball event, and here is a quick review of that squad.

* Out of the 390 teams in the main event, the squad is in 62nd place overall.

* In my 15 team league (30 players per squad), the squad is squarely in third place.

* The offense, led by names like Albert Pujols, Joe Mauer, Bobby Abreu, Ichiro Suzuki and Jayson Werth, has been spectacular. How good you ask? Let us count the ways.

(1) The club is first in batting average (.290), first in home runs (218), second in RBI (841), first in runs (890) and second in steals (150). I said they were dominant didn’t I?

(2) Amongst the 390 teams in the main event, here is how the squad ranks overall.

Average: 8th
Home Runs: 49th
RBI: 28th
Runs: 5th
SB: 27th

Yeah, the offense is killer.

However, this leads to the inevitable question – just how awful is the pitching staff? Putrid unfortunately. Here are the rankings of the squad in pitching: 15th in Wins (50), 7th in ERA (4.09), 15th in K (770), 6th in WHIP (1.322) and 9th in saves (49). So why is the unit just ninth overall? I’m not going to say it was bad drafting, I’m going with bad luck.

Joey Devine – Didn’t throw one inning before needing TJ surgery.
Joba Chamberlain – Just hasn’t taken the next step with a 3.98 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP.
Manny Parra – Too many walks leading to atrocious ratios (6.33 ERA, 1.82 WHIP).
Andy Sonnanstine – Failed to remotely match his work from last season with a 6.61 ERA and 1.53 WHIP resulting in half a season spent in the minors.
Jordan Zimmerman – Another TJ surgery for our squad derailing a solid rookie season for this hurler (1.36 WHIP, 9.05 K/9, 3.15 K/BB).
Ian Snell – Banished to the minors and then traded, he can’t seem to find the strike zone when in the majors (59 walks in 99.2 innings).

Sure some chances were taken with this pitching staff, but in amassing that offense it seemed like a risk worth taking. Think of it this way. If Joey Devine saved just 15 games this season, a completely reasonable total based on anyone’s preseason expectations, we would gain five points in the saves category, up to fourth, and the club would have 107 points overall, well within shouting distance of the 111 points of the first place club. This example shows why your attention should be 100% focused on what you are doing at the draft table with every single selection you make. Your decision, one way or another, could mean the difference between a fourth place finish and being able to hoist the championship trophy at seasons end.

By Ray Flowers

A Risk Worth Taking?

Besides me, who else is counting on Oliver Perez to have a big second half? From time to time I write about my National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) team, and that league consists of 15-teams with 30 players per roster. Given the depth of the penetration into the player pool, there are always a handful of players on each roster that might cause someone to pause if they are used to traditional 10-12 team leagues. So before you think – Ray is a doofus – realize we are talking about some pretty deep rosters here. Back to Oliver Perez.

Perez is one of the names that I picked up off waivers this season. A risky play? For sure as the man walks more batters per nine than just about any starter in the game, but oh does he look dominating when he is on. Problem is, that rarely occurs. Here’s to hoping it occurs, more often than not, the rest of way. That might be a fairly large wish though — perhaps I’ll leave that wish for the tooth fairy.

Why did I grab Perez? Well, after Andy Sonnanstine seemed to forget that the name of the game wasn’t to allow a run per inning (he has a 6.61 ERA), and Ian Snell thought he would try to pitch his way out of Pittsburgh with some awful work (5.36 ERA, 1.62 WHIP), I realized I needed something other than a staff consisting of names like Jamie Moyer. So I took a shot an picked up Perez, weeks ago, in the hope that he would come through. What other waiver-wire guy in a 15 team league has k-per-inning potential?

Another hurler with a similar skill set down to the potentially prolific K-rate as well as the atrocious walk rate is Brandon Morrow of the Mariners who we also picked up on the cheap off the waiver-wire (by the way, isn’t the picture above one of the best you have ever seen? For those of you that don’t know – a form of rookie hazing in baseball is having the youngsters carry the veterans gear, often in things like little girls backpacks). Possibly the only pitcher in baseball who has a more difficult time throwing strikes than Perez, Morrow has thrown 174 innings in his career while waling 115 batters leading to an embarrassing average of 5.95 walks per nine innings pitched in his brief career. Of course, his stuff is untouchable as his K/9 mark of 9.62 is superb. Obviously the kid has talent to burn, but until he starts throwing strikes more consistently he will be maddening to own (he should return from the minors to make a start of July 25th if everything goes according to plan).

The third arm in our Trifecta of Terror is Joba Chamberlain (and yes I’m still not sure if the terror will be most acutely directed toward opposing batters or my blood pressure). Joba clearly hasn’t performed as hoped for in his transition to the starting rotation as he has only four victories, a 4.25 ERA and a 1.56 WHIP through 17 starts this year. Still, his K/9 rate is 7.89 which is a strong mark, and if you add in his work out of the bullpen he has a 9.70 K/9 mark over 213.1 career innings. However, like the other two mentioned above, he is walking far too many batters, though by comparison his 4.25 BB/9 mark actually isn’t that awful.

So is rostering these three guys a risk worth taking? My club need wins and strikeouts, and these three could bring that. In fact, I can pretty easily dream up a scenario with the trio striking out nearly a batter per inning the rest of the way, but the key is will they be able to locate their pitches better, because without that, there ratios could be outright destructive. I know it’s a risk, but sometimes you have to take that leap of faith when the alternatives are guys like Vincente Padilla, Jeff Suppan and Micah Owings. I’m going to close my eyes, pray really hard, and hope these three potentially dominating arms are in fact dominating and not destructive to my fantasy squad. One can hope can’t he?

By Ray Flowers

Cry Baby Cry

We all can whine about the plight of our teams. I’m sure you all have a story about how you missed on the guy you wanted to draft by one selection, or the guy you drafted seems to think that the aim of the game is to swing and miss rather than ripping line drives all over the field. I get it, believe me. So I’m gonna let the tears flow today and let you know how upset I’ve become with a few of the guys I have selected for my various fantasy baseball teams in 2009.

Mike Aviles: I certainly didn’t think he was going to hit .325 again, but .183? Currently on the DL with a strained right forearm, Aviles will only need to go 20 for his next 20 to raise his average up to .300 when he returns. I feel that’s doable – you?

Grant Balfour: Last year 1.54 ERA and a 12.65 K/9. This year, 5.48 ERA and a 8.61 K/9. A regression was coming, but to half of last year’s value?

Chris Davis: Twelve home runs is great. A .194 batting average, not so much. He could set a record for futility as well as he is whiffing 46.7% of the time. That’s right, he already has 77 Ks this season in 165 ABs, or more strikeouts that Albert Pujols has had in any of the last seven seasons.

Joey Devine: The potential closer a year after posting a 0.59 ERA and a 0.83 WHIP, Devine didn’t throw a single regular season pitch before being sent to the DL and ultimately requiring elbow surgery costing him the entire season. Thanks Joey, not like I was counting on you for 30 saves or anything.

Rafael Furcal: Glad you had him in your top-5 at shortstop now that he is hitting .253 with one home run and three steals?

Corey Hart: What happened to that breakout campaign? After back-to-back 20/20 seasons he is barely on pace to go 20/10, though he is almost certain to set a career high in Ks with 50 in 48 games, almost halfway to last year’s worst of 109 in 157 games.

Howie Kendrick: The man can hit .300 in his sleep. He must be in a coma since he is batting .225.

Brandon Morrow: The Mariners’ reliever has a strong 8.22 K/9 mark. Oops. That’s his walks per nine inning mark. How amazingly putrid is that? By the way, his K/9 mark is 10.57.

Ricky Nolasco: So bad he was demoted to the minors where he has dominated in two starts. He has been exceedingly unlucky as his BABIP is astronomical at .402, but that doesn’t help to wick away the tears after he has posted a 9.07 ERA and a 1.81 WHIP through nine starts.

Alexei Ramirez: How had has he been this year? Despite the fact that he is batting .329 over his last 70 at-bats, the man is still hitting just .253 on the year. He is on pace for 30 steals, but the 10 home run pace is pretty awful for a guy who hit 21 last year in just 480 at-bats.

Alex Rios: Is he ever going to put it all together? His career best numbers across the board are .302-24-85-114-32. Currently he is on pace to hit about .275-22-80-80-12.

Jimmy Rollins: Hitting just .230 on the year, Rollins has only three home runs giving him 14 taters in his last 769 at-bats dating back to the start of 2008. Will you finally believe now that his 30 home run season of 2007 was a fluke?

Andy Sonnanstine: Luckily for him I drafted Nolasco or he would be feeling a lot more of my wrath for going 3-5 with a 7.66 ERA and a 1.78 WHIP.

Rickie Weeks: Out for the year with wrist surgery. What could have been considering he was on pace to hit more than 30 home runs with about 100 RBI and 100 runs.

Chris Young: 25/25 as a rookie. 20/10 as a second year player. On pace for 10/10 as a third year player. Flipping great.

By Ray Flowers