Daily Joust – Wk 21: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Brett Anderson (+171K up to $392,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
The A’s lefty has returned from Tommy John Surgery with flying colors mind you. In his first outing against the Twins he tossed one run ball over seven innings as he walked none and struck out six. A strong pitcher through 63 career starts, Anderson owns a 3.62 ERA and 1.25 WHIP for his career. Are those numbers he could match this year? It’s certainly possible, but remember it’s not always a linear path to success for guys returning from Tommy J. Think of Adam Wainwright. His April was dreadful, a 7.32 ERA and 1.47 WHGIP over four starts before he rebounded (for the season Waino has a 3.63 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 26 starts). Anderson is well worth the add in 15 team mixed leagues, but those in 10/12 team leagues would be wise not to count on him too heavily until 2013.

Chris Iannetta (+35, $88K)
Three of the last four years in Colorado Iannetta hit at least 14 homers with 55 RBIs (the year he didn’t reach those marks he had only 188 at-bats in an injury shortened 2010). There was hope that Iannetta would get to 350 at-bats for the first time in his career this season, maybe even well into the 400′s in his new home in Anaheim, but injuries conspired against him. To this point he’s had only 134 at-bats and that has caused him to become an afterthought in two catcher mixed leagues. However, it might be time to start paying attention again. Over 20 games in August Chris has hit .286 with three homers, a .361 OBP an a .821 OPS, levels that he could maintain the rest of the way (well, maybe not the batting average, but it shouldn’t dip much below the league average).

Kyle Kendrick (+101, $356K)
The definition of average, there’s nothing that stands out with Kendrick. His K/BB ratio of 6.41 is a batter below the league average and his 3.13 BB/9 is league average. He allows 0.99 homers per nine. League average yet again. His 1.15 GB/FB is league average. Ditto his ratios – a 4.12 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. I wasn’t kidding when I said nothing stands out. So why mention him? Because it’s all working for him right now. Over his last three outings he has allowed a total of two runs while picking up three victories for the Phillies. He’s also walked a total of three batters while striking out 16. I’m not suggesting you completely buy into what is happening right now, it’s just not who Kyle is, but if you need a boost on the hill few that might be available are likely to be on a better roll (he’s owned in less than 10 percent of Fleaflicker leagues).

Angel Pagan (+30, $119K)
Pagan is 0-for-8 the lat two games but he’s still be flat out killing it of late. Over the previous eight games he produced 18 hits to push his average up from .280 to .290. In fact, he’s hit .301 over his last 40 games and .347 in August (25 contests). He’s not a power bat, he has only seven homers and 48 RBIs, but he plays every day, scores runs (69) and certainly has the speed to swipe a bag (21 on the year).

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Joe Blanton (-149, $206K)
He should be much better than he is, at least in terms of the overall results. On the year he has a 7.76 K/9 mark, the best of his career, and his 1.57 BB/9 mark would tied his career best. As a result he has an elite 4.93 K/BB ratio that is virtually double his career 2.55 mark. The main issue has been the home run, something that often plagues him. Currently his HR/9 is a career worst 1.52, the third time it looks like he will have a mark of 1.38 or greater in the past four years (career 1.08). If he suddenly goes on a run of homerless ball to bring that number back to normal levels he just might be someone to turn to. As it is he’s looked awful with the Dodgers going 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over four starts.

A.J. Burnett (-92, $359K)
He has 15 wins an only four loses with a 3.63 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the year. That’s as good as anyone could have hoped for after his last two years in New York that led to an ERA of 5.20 and a WHIP of nearly 1.50. However, things have taken a downturn for A.J. recently. Over his last three started he’s given up four homers, he’s walked eight batters, and he’s allowed 14 earned runs to add nearly a half run to his ERA. It’s tough to turn away from Burnett, his total of 151.1 innings shouldn’t be wearing him down, but like James McDonald before him maybe we’re just seeing a natural correction.

Matt Joyce (-20, $55K)
Since he was beset my injuries Joyce has been a shell of his former self. Over his last 32 games he has hit just .216 with a mere three homers. His OBP in that time is .295 which is only palatable when one glances over to his SLG and sees a number that should be his OBP (.345). At this point, even if you’re in a 15 team mixed with five starting outfielders it’s nearly impossible to think that you don’t have a better option for a fifth outfielder.

Jason Kubel (-21, $57K)
I warned you to be careful almost exactly a month ago in my July 23rd Column.

“There’s zero chance he sustains his line drive rate (it’s 24 percent)”
His line drive rate has dipped to 22.8 percent.

“There’s zero chance he sustains his HR/F ratio (it’s 20 percent)”
His HR/F ratio is down to 19.5 percent.

“He’s striking out more than ever before.”
After never having a K-rate above 21.4 percent that mark has skyrocketed to 26.4 percent.

“…we know all good things must come to an end, right?”
Kubel has hit .160 with a .549 OPS in August.

He’s only two homers from tying his career best of 28, and with 14 RBIs he’ll have the second best total of his career (best is 103, second best 92), and his .267 batting average is only four points below his career average of .271. The regression was always likely to occur.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

NFL FREE ROLLS
(Sign up for free, win cash)

CRUSADER LEAGUES
(New team each week all season)

GLADIATOR LEAGUES
(Eliminator Tournament)

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 16: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Danny Espinosa (+13, $81K in DailyJoust Salary)
With Ian Desmond looking like he could miss a month or more of playing time with his oblique issue, Steve Lombardozzi will handle second base duties full time with Espinosa moving over to shortstop for the Nats. Espy already has six starts at shortstop, and given that most leagues have no more than a 10 game limit for in-season positional qualification, he’s about ready to become one interesting option up the middle. In addition, have you noticed that he’s actually started to hit as well? The past three weeks the only two second sackers who have been more valuable than Espy are Neil Walker and Brandon Phillips. Espinosa is hitting .359 with two homers, eight RBIs, 11 runs scored and four thefts in that time frame. Get on the Espy train as it’s about to fill up quickly.

Adrian Gonzalez (+12, $126K)
I keep getting questions about this guy as it seems that people haven’t noticed that all of a sudden AGone is just killing it. Hitting .406 in July with 15 RBIs in 16 games, Gonzalez is batting an even .400 over his last 90 at-bats to push his season long mark up to .297. ‘What about the nine homers in 94 games Ray?’ What were you expecting? Fenway Park isn’t a great place for home run hitters if you’re a lefty. I tried to explain just that on January 6th, 2011 in ADP Riser: Adrian Gonzalez. That’s right, over a year an a half ago. No one listened. He went out and hit 27 homers last year. People still didn’t listen and thought a return to 35+ homers was happening this year. It hasn’t as he has nine. That’s 36 homers in 253 games with the Sox. He averaged 36 homers a season his last two years at Petco. One final note. In 133 career games at Fenway AGone is hitting .333 with 17 homers.

Joe Kelly (+72, $267K)
He’s taken the hill seven times for the Cards and he’s allowed more than two earned runs only one time (the Royals produced three). Kelly has also gone exactly six innings in each of his last five starts, all of them “quality.” Still not remotely sold on him. His 5.72 K/9 mark is poor. His 1.79 K/BB ratio is really bad. His ERA of 2.75 should be a run and a half higher given his skill set (no way he holds on to that 80 percent left on base mark, and that 23 percent line drive rate is pretty high as well). He’s a solid arm who generates a lot of grounders, but it’s not likely that he keeps that ERA under three (it’s 2.75) and that 1.40 WHIP is already worse than the league average.

Jason Kubel (+21, $121K)
Someone ate their Wheaties. Four homers, seven RBIs and five runs scored in two games, and six homers, 11 RBIs, eight runs in his last seven contests. Out of control anyone? Going back a bit further Kubel has been doing his best Josh Hamilton impersonation for a long while as he’s hit .304 with 17 homers and 48 RBIs over his last 39 games. Hell, the guy is even hitting .296 against left handed pitching this year (career .247). Ride the gravy train until it runs out, but some perspective. There’s zero chance he sustains his line drive rate (it’s 24 percent but has been under 20 percent three of four years). There’s zero chance he sustains his HR/F ratio (it’s 20 percent after being 11 percent the past two years). He’s striking out more than ever before (25.4 percent K-rate versus 19.4 for his career). It’s all going right for Kubel, and the ballpark in Arizona is certainly helping, but we know all good things must come to an end, right?

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Justin Masterson (-102, $276K)
Even though he tossed seven shutout innings against the Blue Jays on July 13th Masterson has still allowed 12 earned runs over his last 15.1 innings. Yeah, not good. Not just that, he has also walked 12 batters in those three starts including seven the last time he took the hill. That doesn’t sound like someone who has any idea what’s going on right now (Justin walked nine batters in his previous seven starts). On the year a lot is going as expected with Masterson, but he simply has to cut down on the free passes (his 3.93 per nine mark is more than a batter above the level he flashed last season in his breakout effort).

Angel Pagan (-32, $57K)
Pagan killed it in May hitting .375 with eight steals. Not so much since then though. Over his last 41 games he’s gone deep once, stolen just seven bases and hit a mere .235. The result is a slash line of .281/.326/.398, not exactly impressive for a guy who is on pace to fall well short of 10 homers and 65 RBIs. The 17 thefts are nice, but Pagan’s just not a very dynamic option. In search of offense, it’s possible the Giants might even make a trade to bring in another outfield bat in which case Pagan may not be looked at as an every day starter.

Wandy Rodriguez (-59, $234K)
A two-time starter this week, Wandy really needs to show something so that the Astros can move him for peak value before the trade deadline. After allowing nine runs in his last two starts, two loses, his ERA sits at 3.75 for the season. It was 2.49 on June 1st. Wandy has also seen his K-rate plummet this year to 5.99, a horrible mark for a guy who has posted a mark of at least 7.78 each of the past five years. He’s offset the loss of punchouts with a career best walk rate that has led to a 2.86 K/BB ratio which would be a three year high, but that doesn’t help out his fantasy value where we need punchouts (he’s also generating more grounders than ever before at 52 percent of batted balls).

Drew Stubbs (-29, $57K)
Terribly disappointing. That could be the name on the back of Stubbs jersey. At the same time, could it be expectations were too high? The last two years Stubbs averaged 154 games played. Right now he has 77 games played. Multiply 77 by two and you get – 154 games. Therefore, let’s simply double Stubb’s numbers this season and compare them to his 2011 effort.

2011: .243-15-44-92-40 with a .686 OPS
2012: .217-18-48-88-36 with a .644 OPS

Certainly he’s off the pace from last season a wee bit, but honestly, nothing in that 2012 pace would have been thought of as an unreasonable outlook for Stubbs in 2012 given his efforts last season. Maybe the batting average is a bit low, but a hot three weeks could get him back up to .240 and then he’d be right on the same pace as he almost always is (people over at Fleaflicker seem to have mixed feelings about the outfielder). Just some food for thought.

DAILY CONTESTS

Sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 7th, 2011

Rumors are flying at the Winter Meetings, but there are a few deals that have actually been completed.

Huston Street was believed to have been dealt to the Padres as the club from southern California was thought to have done a great job covering up for the loss of Heath Bell to the Marlins. However, reports are now circulating that not only is the deal not complete but the Rockies are still in active negotiations with at least one other team about Street. We’ll wait an see how this plays out, but it’s a certainty that Street will be dealt as the Rockies feel confident that Rafael Betancourt can handle the 9th inning.

*UPDATE: The deal sending Street to the Padres was finally ratified. Street will serve as the closer for the Padres in 2012.

Erik Bedard is an impressive hurler when he is capable of dragging his weary bones onto the field. Last season he may have gone 5-9 but he also posted a 3.62 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and an 8.70 K/9 mark proving how effective he could be. However, the downside is that he only made 24 starts covering 129.1 innings (his biggest innings pitched mark in four seasons). The Pirates have decided to look past the litany of injuries to sign Bedard to relatively painless 1-year deal for $4.5 million. It’s a nice signing if he can stay healthy.

Frank Francisco has agreed to a 2-year deal with the Mets with reports suggesting he will be paid about $12 million. The Mets also signed Jon Rauch to help to bolster their bullpen, but the arm to target in the fantasy game is Francisco. The projected closer in 2012, Francisco owns an electric arm but he’s struggled to stay healthy and consistent when on the mound. Still, the guy has 368 Ks in 334 career innings, and the past three years he’s brought his walk total down to the major league average (3.01 per nine). He’s got a chance to be a solid closer for the Metropolitans.

Nate McLouth signed a 1-year deal with the Pirates for a reported $1.75 million. McLouth had his greatest success as a Pirate before a couple of somewhat troubled seasons in Atlanta where his production was terrible and he struggled to stay healthy. Still just 30 years old, McLouth was a fantasy standout just a few seasons ago as he averaged 23 homers, 99 runs scored, 82 RBI and 21 steals over the 2008-09 campaigns.

The Giants and Mets made a deal that saw them exchange outfielders that have followed similar paths. The deal is this: the Giants receive Angel Pagan while the Mets pick up Andres Torres and Ramon Ramirez. The reliever, Ramirez, is a solid NL-only arm in the fantasy game, but this deal is all about the outfielders. In 2010 both were fantasy all-stars, but both slumped in 2011. Torres has more power than Pagan, but his OPS dropped to .643 last season as he looked lost for long stretches of time. Pagan, who hit .290 and stole 37 bags in 2010, fell to .262 with 32 steals last season. Given the dearth of athleticism in the Giants’ lockeroom Pagan figures to hit at the top of the order for the G-Men. For the Giants sake, I certainly hope they don’t think that adding Pagan and Melky Cabrera gives them enough offense to compliment their wonderful pitching.

Still Twisting

Albert Pujols is apparently leaning toward returning to St. Louis as reports suggest that the Cards and Marlins both offered him very similar contracts.

Prince Fielder is the bat that teams will focus on adding when the Pujols situation is resolved. I’ve been hearing that the Blue Jays, Mariners and Marlins (if they lose out on Pujols) might be the two most aggressive teams to add the portly slugger.

Andrew Bailey and Gio Gonzalez are said to be available, but teams will have to “overpay” the Athletics to add their services. At the moment, it looks like the market for Gonzalez is more active.

Aramis Ramirez to the Brewers is the hot rumor right now. It makes a lot of sense given that Prince Fielder will not be back and that the Brew Crew do not want to have to count on Casey McGehee rebounding in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June 21, 2011

photo © 2008 Rich Anderson | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

If you had to pick one would you choose Chris Carpenter or Tim Hudson?
– @we3kings00

Carpenter has frustrated everyone who owns him. Four times in his past 10 starts he has allowed at least 10 hits, and five times in that stretch at least four earned runs have crossed the plate leading to a 4.47 ERA and 1.39 WHIP on the year. However, I still see positives here, and I was writing about them all the way back on May 12th in Buy or Sell – NL Version. Here is why I’m still bullish on Carpenter.

(1) His K/9 rate is 7.11. That would be a five year high.

(2) His fastball velocity is 92.3 mph, higher than the 91.4 from 2010 and better than his career 91.6 mph mark. It doesn’t seem like he is injured.

(3) His BB/9 rate is 2.19, nearly a half a batter below his career 2.59 mark. As a result, his K/BB ratio is 3.25 which would be his second best mark in five years.

(4) His HR/9 mark is 0.91 and his HR/F mark 10.1. His career rates are 0.92 and 10.3.

(5) His xFIP is 3.34 and his career mark is 3.41.

So why is he struggling? He’s currently allowing his fewest grounders since 2002 leading to a 1.44 GB/FB ratio that is well below his 1.78 career mark. He’s also been battered to the tune of a 23.4 percent line drive rate and a .327 BABIP. Given that Carpenter owns a 19.1 career line drive rate and a .297 BABIP, it would seem like he’s probably due some regression. Also, his current left on base percentage of 67.5 percent would be his first time under 71.7 percent since 2000 (minus his six inning 2007 season).

Hudson twirled a gem Monday to even his record at 6-6. People get so fixated on one thing at times, and with Hudson it was his 4.08 ERA heading into the outing. With eight shutout innings that mark has now dipped to 3.73. Hudson also has a superb 1.09 WHIP. Is that surprising? Hardly, not when you consider that Hudson has a 3.43 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in his career. If we remove his 2009 season when he hurled only 42.1 innings because of injury, here is what we find.

Hudson has won at least 11 games in each of his 11 full seasons.

Hudson has posted an ERA over 4.00 just twice in 11 years. Nine times that mark has been under 3.65.

Hudson has posted a WHIP below 1.27 eight times.

Hudson is as consistent as any hurler in the game over the past decade plus, and his only real failing is that he doesn’t strike batters out (he’s punched out more than six batters per nine only once in seven years).

Both pitchers are solid veteran arms that should have plenty of value the rest of the way. Hudson might be the “safer” option, but I’d still choose Carpenter who offers more upside in the strikeout category, not to mention that I think his ratios also have a good shot at improving the ROTW.

Should I deal Stephen Drew and Jordan Walden to get Hanley Ramirez?
– @noneedforreason

What do you do with an injured player? It’s a question that is at the fore of everyone’s minds. Think of it. Of the top-25 players coming into the year, here are the guys who have been on the DL: Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, Chase Utley, Carl Crawford, David Wright, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton, Evan Longoria, Ryan Zimmerman and Hanley Ramirez. It’s been simply amazing.

Ramirez is back for the Marlins, but he’s still not playing day games after night games because of his wonky back, and he’s also been dropped to sixth in the batting order. It really does no good to analyze his work to this point since it’s so clearly been inferior to his career levels in pretty much every conceivable way. With his continued struggles to get healthy, it’s a fair question to ask if he will be able to flash his elite skills this season, and even if he does, how long will it take him to get there?

I dislike making deals in which I give away the “best” player in the group. I also dislike making deals in which I give up an elite player. However, at this point, I wouldn’t look down my nose at someone who took Drew and Walden for Hanley, especially if that club could use help in the bullpen. I’d like to see if I could get more because HanRam is still an elite talent, but I would understand why someone would make a move. Given that, I’d probably end up withdrawing this offer leaving Hanley on the other squad.

Jon Jay looks like he’s gonna play every, so Jay or Angel Pagan as 4th outfielder until Albert Pujols gets back?
– @metsthoughts

Jay has hit .304 with eight homer, 41 RBI, 64 runs scored and seven steals in 450 big league at-bats. Clearly he has the bat to garner significant work in the big leagues. However, he’s never been a big homer bat, his high was 12 in 2008, and that will not change if he continues to operate with a 1.97 GB/FB ratio which is his career mark (that number is through the roof this season at 3.21). While he will steal the odd base, Jay’s not likely to challenge Vince Coleman’s team records for thefts.

Pagan snuck into the top-50 overall last year with a wonderful 5×5 line of .290-11-69-80-37. He’s not going to match those totals this season after a slow, injury filled start, but he’s cranked things up in June hitting .297 with 11 RBI and five steals, production that mirrors his level from last season. He’s done a great job controlling the strike zone with three more walks than punchouts, and he only figures to see his totals improve when the Mets get back David Wright and Ike Davis from injury.

I’d take Pagan. Neither player will kill you in average, and neither has more than moderate power either, but Pagan has the wheels to easily outdistance himself from Jay.

Everyone in those 10 team mixed leagues with three starting OFs and no MI or CI are killing me.
– @BaseballGuys

Obviously this isn’t a question, and I’m quoting myself (how narcissistic is that?). Still, I just had to vent a bit. I get questions about 15 team leagues, dynasty leagues, NL-only leagues that also use the AL central (that’s not made up) etc. However, the one that really gets me is when people are asking for advice for their 10 team mixed league that starts only three outfielders and does not use middle or corner infielders. I addressed this situation recently in Player Pools where I tried to explain why 10 team mixed leagues are just too shallow.

And finally, I know it’s not a question, but I thought you would all enjoy the sentiment from @justintime56 who had an interesting take on the Albert Pujols injury…

I blame La Russa for Pujols’ injury. Should have played him @ 3B… he only needed one more start at third for eligibility.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Mailbag: April 12, 2011

Photo by Ted Kerwin

Here are the answer to some of the quick hitters that I received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

What are your thoughts on an Aubrey Huff for Kendrys Morales trade?
– @jamesprussell

All preseason I said to be wary of Justin Morneau and Morales, though I don’t think most listened. Morneau has been healthy and on the field which is great news, but he has looked bad at the dish (.258/.303/.355). However, at least he is playing. Morales still is on the sidelines, and the exciting news here is that he will try to run on Tuesday or Wednesday. Think about that. He isn’t running without pain from an injury that occurred last May. I know Morales was really good in 2009, but let’s compare his numbers from that season to what Huff did last year for the Giants.

Morales: .306-34-108-86-3 with a .924 OPS
A. Huff: .290-26-86-100-7 with a .891 OPS

Huff is healthy, off to a a solid start (seven RBI in 10 games), and qualifies at first base and outfield. I see no reason why everyone wouldn’t prefer to roster Huff over the still working his way back into game shape Morales.

What do you think of this trade… I give up Craig Kimbrel and Ryan Howard for Adrian Gonzalez? I’d be left with David Aardsma as my top RP.
– @The_Real-Hart

I know everyone is ga-ga over A-Gone with his move to the Red Sox, and he has been productive so far hitting .297 with seven RBI in 10 games, but I’m a bit confuse by this proposal. Howard has averaged 46 homers, 136 RBI and 99 runs the past five years. I know he is coming off his worst full season (31 homers, 108 RBI, 87 runs) and that he will almost certainly fail to match Adrian in terms of batting average (more on that below), but do you know how many times A-Gone has been able to match the worst effort of Howard’s career (31-108-87)? Try three times. You can talk to me all you want about Petco Park, but the fact is that Howard’s run production isn’t likely to fall too far behind the Sox new slugger. Oh, and I bet it would shock most of you to learn that there is only a four point advantage for Gonzalez in career batting average over the Phillies’ slugger (.284 to .280).

If that paragraph didn’t convince you to turn down the deal, this one should. You simply cannot leave your bullpen in the hands of only Aardsma – that would be a huge mistake. Aardsma is working his way back from injury and looking good in doing it, but it’s far from certain he will immediately start saving games for the Mariners. Even if we posit that he will, you’ll still need a second closer to have any shot at a respectable finish in the saves category. The Braves have settled on Kimbrel as their man in the 9th, sorry Johnny Venters owners, and through 24.2 big league innings Kimbrel has a K/9 mark of 17.15 – the best mark in the history of baseball (min 20 innings).

Turn this offer down.

Sam Fuld or Angel Pagan?
– @dekampanilya

I can’t believe the love fast starters get (I tried, even though no one seems to be listening, to tell people to slow their roll when it comes to the fast start of Willie Bloomquist in 2011 Player Profile: Willie Bloomquist). Fuld could be an even dicier option than Bloomquist who has at least had some success in the big leagues. Due to the retirement of Manny Ramirez there has been an opening for Fuld to pick up playing time, an that makes him someone of interest in an AL-only league. But in a mixed league there is no chance I would roster him, and there is about as much chance I would do so if I had to drop Pagan as there is of me being asked to marry Jessica Biel to help her to get over the loss of Justin Timberlake. If we remove Fuld’s game on April 7th we are left with an outfielder who has four steals in 105 career games. Toss in a total of one homer and a .263 average and, well, blah. To compare, last season Pagan was a huge disappointment in the second half and he hit .263 with five homers and 18 steals. Remember people, the amount of the 2011 baseball season that is over is akin to one game during the NFL’s 16 game season. I implore you to exercise some patience.

I was offered Josh Beckett for Phil Hughes. Take it?
– @walterchase

Why in the world wouldn’t you take the deal? Hughes is struggling with velocity right now, and though the word is that it’s a mechanical thing, tell me you aren’t concerned when you look at his pitching line and see that over his last 18 starts his ERA is 5.76, his hit per nine mark is 9.54, his WHIP is 1.43, his K/9 has dropped to 6.2 and his HR/9 mark is 1.89? Folks, that is awful work, and 18 starts and 20 appearances (100 innings) is a pretty good chunk of work to start drawing some conclusions. Think of it this way. As bad as Beckett was in 2010 his ERA was only 0.02 higher and his WHIP only 0.11 worse. On the flip side Beckett’s K/9 rate was a vast improvement over Hughes’ mark at 8.18 and his HR/9 mark was lower at 1.41. That’s right. As awful as Beckett was last year Hughes has actually been even worse over his last 20 appearances. Toss in the mph/mechanical concern, and the fact that Beckett wasn’t nearly as bad last season as some would lead you to believe (see Is Josh Beckett Finished?) and this is clearly a deal you have to accept.

Zack Britton or Chris Narveson in deep H2H league?
– @ronscrafano

Everyone loves the hot young stud don’t they? Britton is a lefty who has burst on to the scene because of the injury to Brian Matusz. In two starts Britton has allowed just one run going 2-0 with a 0.66 ERA. Britton has been groomed to be a top of the rotation starter, and his greatest asset is his ability to keep the ball on the ground. His control can be hit or miss at times, but for the most part he is a polished youngster who appears ready to take the ball every day. Of course, there are a couple of caveats. (1) He pitches in a park that favors hitters. (2) He pitches in the tough AL East. (3) He could lose his starting rotation spot when Matusz/Justin Duchscherer return to action. (4) He’s yet to throw 160-innings as a professional.

Narveson certainly doesn’t have the pedigree of Britton, an it would be shocking if ended up with the better career. That doesn’t necessarily mean he is the better fantasy option right now however. Over Narveson’s last 16 starts he has posted a strong set of ratios (3.35 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) which have been reflective of his successful work on the hill as Narveson has also struck out an average of 7.7 batters per nine innings leading to a 2.86 K/BB mark. If Britton has a wildly successful rookie season he’s not likely to be able to match the ERA, WHIP or K/9 rate that Narveson has flashed over his last 16 appearances. I’m not saying Narveson is going to be an elite option in 2011, but for my money he’d be the hurler I would roster out of this duo.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147.

Did You Know?

Did you know that I’m tall (6’3″)? Did you know that I wear size 13 shoes? Did you know that I have a rule that I don’t get up before the sun? I know that isn’t the type of did you know that you were planning to read, so before I lull you into a semi-comatose state with more mundane “Ray facts” let’s get to the meat of this piece.

Mike Napoli leads all catchers with 20 homers. Only 12 of those bombs have come as a catcher, eight have come as a first basemen, but you get the point. Moreover, the 20 homers from a catcher eligible player are more than the combined total of Buster Posey (nine) and Joe Mauer (eight) who are hitting a combined .335.

Albert Pujols is pushing for the NL Triple Crown with a .319 average (third – Joey Votto leads the league at .323), 33 homers (first) and 92 RBI (first). He’s also second in the league in OPS at 1.013 (two percentage points behind Votto). But did you know… Albert Pujols also leads all first basemen in the game with 12 steals. And he’s having a down season?

There isn’t a single second basemen, who qualifies for the batting title, who has an OBP of .400 as Robinson Cano has a .390 mark. Can also leads the position with a .326 batting average, a .568 SLG, a .958 OPS, 35 doubles and 87 RBI. Yeah, Cano has been pretty good, which is kinda like saying that Adrianna Lima is hot.

Casey McGehee has been insanely good given his draft day cost. McGehee has hit 20 homers this season which just so happens to be one less than Alex Rodriguez. Moreover, McGehee has more homers than a litany of fantasy stars at the hot corner; Michael Young (19), Kevin Youkilis (19), David Wright (19), Aramis Ramirez (19) and Evan Longoria (18). Casey’s total of 82 RBI is also more than Wright (81), Mark Reynolds (71), Young (70), Ryan Zimmerman (70).
Yunieksy Betancourt has more RBI (61) than any shortstop in the American League. Read that again to make sure you’ve got it. For that matter, any idea who leads NL shortstops in RBI? In another minor miracle, it’s Juan Uribe (66). Let’s keep building on the craziness. I haven’t even mentioned the man who leads all shortstops in RBI – Alex Gonzalez who has 70. He had 50 as a member of the Blue Jays and 20 as a member of the Braves.
Brennan Boesch hit .342 with 12 homers and a .990 OPS in 65 games before the All-Star break. Since that point he has played 37 games and he his hit a sickly .145 with two homers and a .429 OPS. Think about that. He has literally been less than half the player he was in the first half.

Juan Pierre has 49 steals leaving him one short of a fifth season of at least 50 thefts. Since he began his career in 2000, there are only two men that can rival that level of production. Jose Reyes has four 50-steal seasons in that time whereas Carl Crawford has five 50-steal efforts. Mr. Crawford needs nine more steals this season to push his career mark to six 50-steal seasons.

The Giants’ Andres Torres is having a special season. Amongst players who qualify as a right fielder, Torres is sixth in OPS (.866), sixth in OBP (.370) and seventh in SLG (.499). Torres also has scored 71 runs – one more than Justin Upton – and his total of 23 steals makes him one of only five qualifiers at the position with at least 20 (Ichiro Suzuki, Angel Pagan, Will Venable and Ben Zobrist).

Everyone has been talking about Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson, but has anyone noticed who is leading the AL in ERA this season with a 2.26 mark? The answer is none other than Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox. Clay hasn’t given up an earned run in his last three starts, and five times in his last nine trips to the hill he has emerged unscathed. Not bad for a guy who entered the year with a grand total of 36 games under his belt.

Not many have taken notice, but Neftali Feliz is about to make history. After tossing a total of 31 innings last season, Neftali still qualifies for the AL Rookie of the Year award. If that isn’t cool enough, how about the fact that he is a mere seven saves from setting an all-time rookie record. The current mark is 37 held by Kaz Sasaki. Of course, Sasaki was 32 years old when he came to the States after a career of success in Japan, so that number really shouldn’t count – at least in this scribes book.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 25, 2010

(1) Carlos Zambrano goes bonkers in dugout is suspended.

(2) Jair Jurrjens likely to return to the rotation next Wednesday.

(3) Carlos Beltran back by Monday?

(4) Carl Crawford’s shoulder still bothering him.

(5) Aramis Ramirez back from thumb injury.

(6) Jake Peavy coming on strong.

(7) A big announcement coming on Monday.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 4, 2010

(1) Grady Sizemore done for the year – microfracture knee surgery.

(2) Carlos Beltran has success in extended spring game.

(3) No surgery for Brett Anderson?

(4) Vladimir Guerrero returns from injured eye.

(5) Alex Gordon hitting well, but won’t be back soon with Royals.

(6) Gary Matthews Jr. was designated. Still owned nearly $20 million on current deal.

(7) Pat Burrell with Giants, John Bowker demoted. For more make sure you read my most recent Five Questions article which also talks about Gordon Beckham losing playing time, and Matt Wieters struggles.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.8, 2010

(1) The Yankees sign Marcus Thames and Randy Winn.

(2) Carlos Beltran continues bickering with Mets.

(3) Ty Wigginton on the move with additions of Garret Atkins and Miguel Tejada?

(4) Why can’t Jermaine Dye find a team?

(5) Brian Giles joins Dodgers.

By Ray Flowers