Player Profile: Howie Kendrick

There aren’t many second baseman who can do what Howie Kendrick can do. Unfortunately, his skills don’t necessarily translate to huge value in the fantasy game, and as a result people never seem to be able to give the guy his due for what he does do. I get it. In today’s sports world it’s often more about what a guy can’t do than what he can do. It’s en vogue to tear people down. It’s also fairly normal for people to place unreasonable expectations on players and then to be upset when they don’t do what they were never going to do in the first place. I think Howie could be the poster boy for this movement.

What does Kendrick do well? He hits for average, year after year. Take a look at Kendrick’s career batting average numbers.

2006: .285
2007: .322
2008: .306
2009: .291
2010: .279
2011: .285
2012: .287
Career: .292

Only once has he failed to hit .285. Moreover, since the 2006 season his .292 batting average is fourth among second sackers (minimum 2,000 plate appearances). In addition, Robinson Cano and Kendrick are the only two second baseman who have hit at least .279 in each of the past seven seasons. The guy is money in the bank in batting average.

Kendrick is far from a stolen base demon, but he still knows how to swipe a bag. Though he’s never stolen more than 14 bases in a season, he’s exactly hit that total each of the past three years. There are only three second sackers who have 14 steals each of the last three years; Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips and Kendrick. Howie also stole 11 bases in 2008 and 2009 giving him 5-straight seasons of 11 thefts of bases. The group of men that have done that who play second base number four; Kinsler, Phillips, Chase Utley and Kendrick.

Kendrick is not a power hitter. He never will be. Over the past four seasons he’s averaged 11.5 homers per season. After hitting 18 homers in ’11 hopes were raised higher than they should have been. Back to my point at the top. People thought that Kendrick would hit 20 homers in a good season and 15 in a down year. He went deep eight times. Everyone threw a fit forgetting that Kendrick hit 10 homers in 2009 and 10 homers in 2010. His total of eight last year is way more the hitter he is than the 18 he hit in ’11 – that’s just a fact.

Kendrick is not a big time RBI man. The lack of power is a problem as is the fact that the two spots in the batting order in which he has had the most at-bats are second and seventh in the order. Not exactly huge run producing positions. Still, his total of 67 RBIs in ’12 was the second best mark of his career, so there is no room to complain.

Kendrick isn’t a big time run scorer. The reason, and it seems odd given the rest of his “game,” is the fact that he has never learned how to take a walk. Ever. His career-high is 33 walks, and when you walk that infrequently, even when you have an impressive batting average, you just don’t get on base enough to score a ton (Kendrick’s career OBP is .328, two points lower than the AL average since he entered the league). A year after scoring a career-high 86 runs people expected that to be his new level despite the fact that he scored 61 and 67 runs in 2009-10. Given those lower totals his 57 runs scored isn’t out of the realm of what should have been expected.

So let’s put it all together. How many second baseman have hit .279-8-61-57-11 the past four years? One – Howie Kendrick. The numbers might not be anything that stands out, I’m the first to admit that, but that consistency gives you a solid baseline that you can expect from Kendrick. He’s not great. He’s not a difference maker. But I’ll tell you this. He’s consistently solid across the board, so if I miss out on the Cano’s and Kinsler’s of the world early in a draft I’m content to wait until the middle rounds to roster Kendrick as my second sacker.
By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Tommy Hanson

The Braves dealt Tommy Hanson to the Angels in exchange for reliever Jordan Walden. Yes, the Walden that opened the year as the closer for the Angels last season. With the Angels adding Ryan Madson they felt they could deal the hard throwing right-hander (Walden didn’t have a great season last year, but don’t forget that he saved 32 games in 2011 and that he owns a 10.83 K/9 mark over 123 big league games). The Braves now possess, arguably, the top-foursome of any pen in baseball: Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Eric O’Flaherty and Walden. With the way the game is played these days, have an elite bullpen seems to be as important as having an elite starting rotation. But this piece is about the tall righty who at one point was looked at as a potential top-20 starting pitcher in the fantasy game. What should we make of the flailing Tommy Hanson?

As a rookie Hanson went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA. In his second season he passed 200 innings while posting a 3.33 ERA. In his first three seasons his WHIP was 1.18, 1.17 and 1.17. So happy times ahead, right? Well, not so much. What that data leaves out is that Hanson tossed only 130 innings in 2011 as healthy woes started to mount. Last season his ERA skyrocketed to 4.48, his WHIP went into the stratosphere at 1.45, and he posted a four year low in BB/9 (3.66) and K/BB (2.27). What went wrong with Hanson? His shoulder wasn’t 100 percent. The result was a loss of three mph off his fastball from 2010 to 2012 (92.7 to 89.7 mph). The loss of velocity caused him to nibble more driving his pitch counts up. As a result he made 31 starts but was only able to last 174.2 innings. To compare, in 2010 he made three more starts but hurled 28 more innings.

If you can’t tell, let me just spell it out. Hanson, previously one of my favorite young hurlers in the game, makes me nervous. When a guy who is this young (26 years old) has these kind of issues, the red flag goes up. I’ve written previously about Hanson and his somewhat odd mechanics (I wrote about that issue back in February of 2012 in The Old, The Young and The Pretty). I always felt that a potential land mine in his development was that wonky mechanical issues he has where he seems to be fighting his body a bit as he comes over the top in a rather disjointed movement. Was the mechanical issue a reason for his struggles with health in 2012? That certainly seems possible. Whatever the issue, unless he is able to reclaim those lost three mph his outlook isn’t getting any better any time soon.

Numbers wise, here are some of the concerns.

Last season his ERA was 4.48. His first three seasons that mark was 3.28.
Last season his WHIP was 1.45. His first three seasons that mark was 1.17.
Last season his K/BB ratio was 2.27. His first three seasons that mark was 2.89.

You could argue that even with those struggles that he still posted a 1.01 GB/FB (career 0.99), a 74.1 left on base percentage (career 74.9) and that his ’12 numbers in line drive rate (20.7) and HR/F (13.5) were virtual matches for his ’11 numbers (20.5 and 12.5). I would counter with this. Since July 15th of 2011 Hanson has made 36 starts that have led to the following numbers: 14-13, 4.96 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 2.37 K/BB ratio over 201.1 innings. Since the middle of the 2011 season Hanson hasn’t even been a league average hurler.

A young pitcher struggling with health, coming off his worst season, moving to an unfavorable league and one who is likely to see a massive increase in salary as he heads to arbitration makes Hanson a certain risk to take on for the Angels. There should also be plenty of concern the the fantasy game with Hanson. All of the negative points I made in this piece are valid concerns. Given the overall down turn in his work last season, and the fact that he’s averaged just 152 innings pitched the last two years, you had better think long and hard about making him anything other than your 4th starting pitcher in mixed leagues, and that might even be a bit optimistic. I’m off the Hanson train for now. He’ll have to prove to me that he can be successful before I elevate him back onto my target list.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Dan Haren

Dan Haren is through as an effective big league hurler. That’s what you will hear from many who assess his failures in the 2012 season. I for one am not ready to throw Mr. Haren under the bus without analyzing his efforts in detail to see if he was indeed just as bad last season as some seem to think he was, or if there is still something that this dart throwing righty still has to offer in the fantasy game.

From 2005-2011 Dan Haren threw at least 215 innings each season, and his total of 1,581.1 innings was second in baseball (1,588.1 IP for CC Sabathia). He was the workhorses’ workhorse. Last season injuries sent him to the DL for the first time in his career as he threw 176.2 innings, a total most hurlers would love to achieve each year (at least he made 30 starts for the 8th straight season). Obviously his workload is a concern, sooner or later bodies break down, so it’s fair to wonder if the heavy workload that Haren has handled has led him to a point where he just cannot be counted on for huge inning totals.

Haren did win 12 games last season, a moderate total for an arm that has won at least 14 games six times. Once again, Haren and Sabathia are the only two pitchers in baseball who have won 12 games each of the last eight years. The righty and lefty duo of workloads also is the righty-lefty duo of wins.

Oh, but that ERA of Haren was terrible, considering his body of work, you say. Haren owns a 3.66 ERA for his career, and only once in the previous five years had he exceeded that mark (3.91 in 2010). So what happened with his 4.33 ERA last season? Was that high ERA “earned?” Let’s investigate.

Haren’s K/9 rate fell to 7.23, a six year low. It was only 0.02 off his 2011 mark, and just a bit below his 7.60 career mark so it’s not doom and gloom time but it is worth noting, the reduction in the rate I mean. As for his walk rate, Haren’s 1.94 BB/9 was only slightly above his 1.89 career rate. That’s an elite mark. Combine the two and you end up with a 3.74 K/BB ratio. Again, an elite mark. Yes it was a 5-year low for Haren, but the mark was still the 17th best in baseball. That would seem to indicate that Haren can still be a pretty fair hurler, even if his days of huge strikeout totals are gone.

Haren’s WHIP should never be a huge concern given that he just doesn’t put anyone on base via the walk (that fact should always help to shield him from posting poor WHIP marks). Even with last seasons down effort his 1.29 WHIP was still just below the big league average in 2012 of 1.31. That WHIP was also an eight year high by the way, and it was still better than the league average. The man owns a career mark of 1.18 and you have to be impressed by that.

I focus on homers allowed a lot, an in this respect Haren was beaten around the yard. His 1.43 mark, per nine innings, was the worst of his career. His career mark is 1.05, an over the previous five years that mark was never above 1.19. Part of the blame obviously lies at the feet of a career worst 12.8 HR/F ratio (career 10.5). Perhaps part of the blame is the loss of velocity (88.5 mph on his heater versus 90.8 for his career). That heat needs to come back. I’m not saying Haren can’t still be successful at 88.5 mph, he certainly can be, but it will obviously be more difficult without the heat for him to return to his previous elite levels. Truth be told though, the guy just knows how to pitch. I bet he could get batters out throwing 85 mph. So will the homer total regress in 2013? History says yes. Logic says yes. I say yes.

In the end, Haren isn’t likely to ever again be the hurler that struck out 223 batters with a 3.14 ERA in 2009. Still, a return to the NL with the Nationals can’t do anything but help (it also won’t hurt for him to likely be slotted as the 4th starter behind Stephen Strasburg, Gio Gonzalez and Jordan Zimmerman). Plus, he’s on a one year, $13 million deal that gives the Nationals only a moderate amount of risk while providing Haren with one year to prove that he can still be an impressive hurler worthy of one last multi-year, big money deal. Haren figures to be a strong NL-only option, and I would bet that he improves on his ratio marks from last season making him a solid mixed league option as well.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ervin Santana

It’s easy to make fun of the Kansas City Royals. They never win, the national media never pays attention, and they rarely excite anyone. Therefore, when they recently added Ervin Santana, coming off his worst season, there likely wasn’t a scintilla of attention paid to the move other than to mock the Royals for taking on Santana at $12 million in 2013. Were the Royals foolish or sly like a fox in picking up the righty?

2012: 9-13, 5.16 ERA, 133 Ks, 1.27 WHIP in 178 innings.

THE BAD

(1) After throwing 220+ innings in 2010-11 Santana dipped to 178 innings in 2012.

(2) His win total was a three year low (17 and 11).

(3) His ERA was abysmal and the second worst mark of his career (5.76 in 2007). He was more than two runs worse than he was in 2010-11 when he posted a 3.65 mark over 451.1 innings.

(4) After seasons of 169 and 178 Ks his total fell all the way down to 133.

(5) He allowed 39 homers, a career worst total (previous that mark was 27).

So the Royals are moronic in thinking this situation will reverse itself in 2013, or are they? Let’s start at the end.

Santana has long been homer prone allowing at least 23 homers each year from 2007-12, but he had never been above 27 before last seasons shellacking. Think of it like this. Per nine innings he allowed 1.09 and 1.02 homers in 2010-11, but somehow last season that number doubled to 1.97. On the surface that makes no sense, and when we talk about the actual number, 1.97 is insanely high. Given that his career mark is 1.24 it stands to reason that his homer total could dip by 10 or more in 2013. This should be aided by three things. (1) Common sense. (2) Regression to the mean. (3) Fly balls. One would think that given such a massive homer total that Ervin allowed a crap ton, a highly scientific term, of fly balls. Simply, he didn’t. Not only did he not allow a crap ton of fly balls, he actually allowed fewer fly balls than at any point in his career. He had a career best with a 37.3 fly ball rate, just one percent above the league average. So if he allowed fewer fly balls than ever before how did he allow all the homers? His HR/F ratio was obnoxiously high at 18.9 percent. If you combine his mark from 2010 (9.2) and 2011 (10.1) you end up at 19.3 percent, barely higher than his mark last season. He also owns a career mark of 10.1 percent, right on the big league average. The bottom line is that he simply didn’t “earn” all those home runs. Some were the result of bad pitches, but it would also seem like he left his rabbit’s foot at home when he pitched.

Beyond the homer situation that simply must turn around, there are a few indicators that show that Ervin pitched as well as he usually does in 2012 despite the results.

THE GOOD?

(1) His line drive rate of 19.5 percent was one tenth above his career mark. I already mentioned his career low fly ball rate which led to a 1.16 GB/FB ratio, again the best of his career.

(2) His 6.72 K/9 mark was a six year low, but his mark was in the 6.80′s in 2009 and 2010 and his career mark is 7.12 so we’re not talking about a major drop off.

(3) His 3.08 BB/9 mark was a five year high but given that his carer mark is 2.90 it’s well within the realm of the expected.

(4) His 1.27 WHIP was below his career 1.30 mark.

(5) His BABIP was actually a career best at .241 (career .284). If guys hadn’t taken him deep as often, the results of his season would have likely been very different.

(6) Finally, two advanced measures for ERA. His xFIP was 4.48 just above his career 4.32 mark. His SIERA was 4.35 just above his career 4.20 mark (SIERA is the newest iteration of xFIP).

So is Ervin Santana worth $12 million? Even in this crazy environment the answer is obviously no. Did the Royals obviously blunder in adding him to their organization? The answer is again no. Just the cursory look I ran through above should point out that Santana is nowhere near as bad a pitcher as it appears he was last year. In fact, many of the lead indicators to judge a pitcher’s performance were the same as they always were with Santana. What this means, at least to this scribe, is that Santana will be a solid option in the reserve rounds of drafts next season. You can’t just ignore what happened, after all he was horrible in 2012, but there is enough left in this skill set to suggest that spending a late round selection on Santana in mixed league drafts in 2013 might just net you a tidy return.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Torii Hunter

Torii Hunter is coming off of one of the best seasons of his distinguished career, and the 37 year old realized this might be his last contract of significance, if not the last contract, of his big league career. He said he wanted to find a home where he could play full-time and have a chance to win. He got his wish Wednesday when it was announced that he signed a 2-year, $26 million deal to join the Tigers (for more on the deal and how it came to pass read the entertaining story of The Tale of Torii the Tiger). His signing will obviously also ding the value of Brennan Boesch, Quintin Berry, Avisail Garcia and Andy Dirks who will now struggle for at-bats in Detroit, but what does this mean for Hunter and his fantasy value in 2013?

Hunter appears likely to play right field and hit second in the Tigers order behind Austin Jackson and in front of Miguel Cabrera, Prince Fielder and Victor Martinez. There isn’t a better spot in any order that Hunter could have landed in, period.

Hunter started his career in 1997 though his first two seasons he totaled all of 19 plate appearances. Still, he’s been around forever, and he’ll turn 38 right after the 2013 All-Star Game. Should his age be a concern? You bet your rear end it should, and that’s easy enough to see if we look at two main components of his game – power and speed.

Hunter hit 16 home runs in 2012, his lowest total since going deep 14 times in 2005 (he appeared in just 98 games that year). The 2012 season was his first of 138 games played in which he didn’t go deep 20 times (he’s appeared in 138 games ten times). Besides the onset of age, why did his homer total fall? Let’s look at his fly ball ratio. Here are the marks the past four years: 36.3, 33.6, 33.3 and 25.4 percent. Last years mark is clearly an outlier for a guy who owns a 34.4 percent career mark, but the trend is unmistakable – he’s not lifting the ball like he used to. Now he missed his career HR/F ratio of 15.8 percent by only two tenths last year so when he does lift the ball he still goes deep with the same regularity. Unfortunately for Hunter though, Comerica Park was just 17th in homers in 2012 (it’s not exactly a launching pad).

Hunter has long been an effective base stealer. He’s never stolen more than 23 bases, and has only hit 20 steals three times, but he’s still a threat for double-digit thefts, or is he? After a run of 6-straight seasons of basepath success from 2004-09, Hunter stole at least 12 bases each season and five times he swiped at least 18, he’s kinda stopped running. The last three years he has failed to reach double-digits, and it’s not just his steal total that has shrunk, but his effectiveness has vanished as he’s converted 23 steals while being caught an unconscionable 20 times. Why Mike Scioscia ever even let him run is beyond me.

‘So the power is slipping and the steals are too, but Ray, the guy hit .300 last year so he’s still valuable in the fantasy game.’ I wouldn’t disagree with that sentiment, but let’s not take it too far. Yes Hunter hit .300 for the first time, he hit .313, but the guy is 37 years old. He had also failed to hit .282 the previous two seasons. He owns a career batting average of .277. His BABIP of .389 in 2012 is only, oh, .059 points higher than it has ever been before (career .307). His line drive rate of 22.6 percent was also a career best, just the second time he even posted a mark of 20 percent, and light years above his 17.8 percent career mark. Add in a career worst 0.29 BB/K mark and you’ve got yourself one of the most fortunate .300 hitters you will ever see. Hunter will not hit .300 again in 2013.

As I noted above, Hunter couldn’t have done a better job insulating himself with elite batters. If he does hit second for the Tigers he will have a very productive season. His RBI total will likely fall, but he should have no problem keeping his runs scored mark high. Still, be careful not to overvalue the logo on his jersey on draft day – this is still a 37 year old who has seen his power and speed decline, and one that has no shot to replicate his batting average from his last season in Anaheim.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Kendrys Morales

In 2009 Kendrys Morales was a fantasy baseball star hitting .306 with 34 bombs and 108 runs batted in. He was off to another strong start in 2010 before he busted up his leg in the infamous jumping on home plate to celebrate the game winning hit injury (which I kept saying before the injury occurred was a dangerous, stupid thing – give me a high five and be done with it). As a result of that freak play Morales appeared in just 51 games in 2010, and when his recovery took longer than expected he actually ended up missing the entire 2011 season as well. So what did people think about him heading into 2012? People were sort of interested until he had one amazing week in Spring Training and everyone thought he was “back.” I warned against that and had him ranked 19th at the first base position heading into the ’12 season. Was I right about Morales, and whether or not the answer is yes/no what should we be thinking about with him heading into 2013?

Note: Morales was dealt to the Mariners after this article was written.

2012: .273-22-73-61-0 in 484 at-bats

Moraeles had a solid season, right in line with my personal expectations. However, I bet people were disappointed with his effort which was grossly inferior to his 2009 season. Here is what I will say about that – the same thing I’ve been saying for two years. The game just isn’t that easy. Moreales played 51 games in a two year span (you think Troy Tulowitzki is injury prone? Tulo played 265 games in 2010-11). Even if Morales is the player who had a great 2009 season, it just wasn’t reasonable to expect him to produce at an elite level after missing so much time (more than a year an a half of game action was missed folks). Second, and this was also overlooked, the reason he missed all that time was because his body wasn’t right. Just because he got to the point that he could play didn’t mean he was in baseball shape or that his body was totally “right.” Given those two huge factors, I would call his 2012 effort an unqualified success, despite what many people seem to think. What’s past is past though, so let’s try and figure things out for him moving forward.

A swtich hitter, Morales was limited to just 70 at-bats against lefties in 2012. He hit a pathetic .229 with a .289 OBP. He’s never been even a passable hitter against lefties though (career: .250/.286). He also struggled in the second half as he hit just .256 over his last 64 games. In the end he hit .273, not far off his .281 career mark. Given that he exceeded his career BABIP of .305 at .315, and that he also greatly exceeded his career line drive rate of 17.6 percent at 20.5, it might be wise to consider that Morales is more of the batting average producer he was in 2012 versus the 2009 version.

As for the power, it really came on in the second half when he went deep 14 times. Is he a 30 homer bat? It’s certainly possible. I mean he was before, hitting 34 in 566 at-bats in 2009, and he has gone deep 33 times in his last 677 at-bats wrapped around the leg injury, but I have my doubts. Though he has posted an impressive 18.1 percent or better HR/F mark each of the past three seasons, there is a disturbing trend going on that may limit his upside in the homer column. Morales had a league average 1.02 GB/FB ratio in 2009, hence the 34 homers. However, that number took a huge step up to 1.53 in 2010, and then in 2012 it took another step upward to 1.81. You simply aren’t going to hit 30 homers if you are hitting so many balls into the ground. Consider this. Over each of the last three seasons his ground ball rate has also increased, substantially: 40.7, 42.0, 47.9 and 51.2 percent. To reiterate, you just aren’t going to go deep 30+ times if you are hitting half your batted balls into the ground.

So who is Morales? I would posit that he is not the 2009 version or the 2012 version. I’d actually split things down the middle. By that I mean I look at Morales and think .280-25-90 is the type of hitter one should expect Morales to be in 2013. He could better all of those numbers, he has before, but with his increasing ground ball rate, and the previously unmentioned career worst K-rate from 2012 (22.2 percent), I’m just not seeing the type of growth or performance that would lead me to think a repeat of 2009 is in the offing.

By Ray Flowers

Angels/Marlins Spending Like Drunken Sailors

I bemoan the Yankees and Red Sox all the time, and with good reason I believe. Not only does the national media seem to think that they are the only two teams in baseball, they routinely spend money like they are printing it in the basement. So far this offseason those two teams get a pass as it’s the Angels and the Marlins who are playing with Monopoly money.

The Marlins have a new stadium that cost $640 million, and for some reason that has led them to think that they are going to be able to sell it out for the next decade. Good luck with that. The fact of the matter is that the Marlins have had some great teams over the years but the fans just haven’t consistently come to the park (with so much to do in Florida, I can understand why that is the case). Will that change after the moves the team is making? It had better or this will be a disastrous situation in a few years (a cycle that they have unfortunately been through multiple times).

The Marlins fired off the first huge salvo of the the offseason when they made Jose Reyes their new shortstop. Of course, we’re now getting this back and forth from Hanley Ramirez who apparently feels disrespected that the Fish would bring in someone to play his position. Get over yourself Hanley. Reyes is a better defensive shortstop, that’s just the fact, and his addition to the lineup is a huge infusion of talent and skill. Suck it up, get back to full health, and cause some serious damage with your new running mate homie.
Cost: 6 years, $108 million

The Marlins also signed two hurlers to bolster the staff. They added Heath Bell to lock down the ninth inning on a 3-year deal with a fourth year option. They then went out and surprised everyone by adding Mark Buehrle on a four year contract when most didn’t think they were truly in on the lefty until late in the game (I will have write ups on both players in the near future in the ever popular Player Profile series). Bell is a top-10 closer, and while Buehrle has never been an elite arm, he has 11-straight seasons of 200-innings and 10 wins, and no pitcher in the game can match that feat.
Cost: Bell – 3 years, $27 million ($9 million option)
Buehrle – 4 years, $58 million

TOTAL COST: $193 million (plus $9 million option on Bell)

You ain’t seen nothing yet.

The Angels, apparently frustrated that they didn’t get to blow their wad last year on Adrian Gonzalez, Adrian Beltre or Carl Crawford, have gone totally bonkers. Not only did they grab the greatest hitter of our generation, they also added the best starting pitcher on the market for good measure.

Out of nowhere, an I’m talking something akin to the admission by Darth Vader that he was Luke Skywalker’s father, the Angels swooped in and signed Albert Pujols after everyone in the media had him going to the Marlins or Cardinals. The Angels offer was $40 or so million more than the other two teams were reportedly willing to spend. The result is that Pujols will receive the second largest contract in baseball history behind only the 10 year, $275 million deal Alex Rodriguez signed with the Yankees. Already 31 years old, I think it’s foolish to give Pujols a 10 year deal, but that’s what it took to obtain his services and Angels’ owner Arte Moreno would not be denied his prize this offseason.
Cost: 10 years, $250-260 million

Needing a compliment for their new toy on offense, the Angels also signed the best pitcher on the free agent market, C.J. Wilson (for my thoughts on what Wilson brings to the table, give his Player Profile a read). Given that estimates all offseason penned Wilson as a pitcher who wanted, and was likely to receive, $100 million, can it be said that the Angels actually got a bargain here? A rotation of Jered Weaver, Dan Haren, Wilson and Ervin Santana sounds mighty impressive and should cause plenty of AL teams to be Nervous Nancies heading into the 2012 season.
Cost: 5 years, $75 to $77.5 million

TOTAL COST: $325 to 337.5 million

Can money by a championship? We’ll find out as money is flying around this offseason with no regard to the fact that the United States economy is not exactly booming right now. Time will tell, but as we’ve seen many times in sports, throwing money around isn’t always the answer.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profiles: Chris Iannetta & Ramon Hernandez

The landscape of catching was changed on Wednesday night as two of the more imposing backstops ever to wield the lumber switched teams. OK, I couldn’t type that with a straight face, so I had to stop before it got out of control. The truth of the matter is that a couple of catchers changed teams on Wednesday, and while neither of them is a star, both bring solid bats to their new homes and provide fantasy leaguers decent options after the elite hitting backstops are off the map.

Angels Trade: Tyler Chatwood
Rockies Trade: Chris Iannetta

First, and most obvious, is the fact that the Angels had a catcher that could sock the ball in Mike Napoli, and they soured on him and let him go in one of the worst decisions of last offseason. As a result of that terrible decision the Angels had hideously producing backstops with a bat in their hands last year (in fact, their catchers in 2011 hit .192 with a .252 OBP). Iannetta will certainly help to give the Angels a bat that can cause some damage on offense.

Iannetta has holes in his swing as his .235 career batting average would attest to. However, he does a couple of things very well. First off he powers the ball. Per 400 at-bats in his career Iannetta has averaged 18 homers. Only nine catcher eligible players hit 18 homers last season. Iannetta has never recorded even 350 at-bats in a season as the Rockies stubbornly refused to give him that much work – he had 345 at-bats last year – but all he needs is a few extra games at DH to make 400 a possibility.

Iannetta’s other skill, overlooked by some teams, is his ability to get on base. The owner of a .357 career OBP, Chris posted a mark of .370 in 2011, better than all but two catchers who had at least 450 at-bats (Alex Avila at .389 and Victor Martinez at .380). As a result of all the walks he also owns a career 0.64 BB/K mark. Teams should realize that his power/patience approach at the dish is ideal for a catcher.

The biggest concern with Iannetta is two-fold. (1) Will Mike Scioscia play him on a consistent basis? It’s not like he’s ever stuck with just one catcher and actually let him play since Bengie Molina left town. (2) Will Iannetta be able to hit away from Coors Field? Iannetta posted a .587 OPS on the road last year (.975 at Coors), and for his career his OPS is .162 points lower on the road (.707).

Rockies Sign: Ramon Hernandez
2-years, $6.5 million

The Rockies covered themselves by signing Ramon Hernandez to fill the gap behind the dish when Iannetta was dealt to the Angels. On the downside of his career at 35 years old, Hernandez can still be a productive offensive performer if managed properly.

The last time Ramon had 325 at-bats was 2008, but he can still do some things with the bat. After hitting in the .250′s 3-straight years (2007-09) Hernandez bounced back to hit .297 in 2010. Unfortunately he hit only seven homers in 313 at-bats. In 2011 both facets of his game were on display as he hit .282 with 12 homers. Still, there are some concerns.

Most obvious on the list of worries is Ramon’s age. Catchers have a habit of breaking down rather quickly when they hit their mid 30′s. If managed properly this is less of an issue, but it also means his fantasy value will be kept low because he won’t be playing every day. Second on the list for Hernandez is the fact that his GB-rate continues to grow. The last two years it has been over 51 percent. Even at Coors Field you aren’t going to hit a lot of long balls if more than half of your batted balls are killing grass.

OUTLOOK

If I was ranking these guys right now I’d have Iannetta ahead of Hernandez. I wouldn’t be shocked if Ramon had a better batting average than Iannetta, but I’d also be fairly surprised if his at-bat total was within 75 to 100 of Iannetta. As such, Iannetta figures to be a much better play in the counting categories in 2012. I also won’t be overly surprised if people end up drafting Hernandez a bit ahead of Iannetta because of the Coors Field factor making Iannetta a slightly better value. The bottom line is that in standard mixed leagues both guys seem like solid options as a second catcher.

By Ray Flowers

The Arrival of Mike Trout

photo © 2010 HuntFishGuide.com | more info (via: Wylio)

Mike Trout is one of the top-10 prospects in baseball. In fact, he’s even better than that. According to Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com, Trout is the top prospect in baseball. Baseball Prospectus had less faith in Trout. They listed him #2 (behind Bryce Harper). That’s the same way the folks over at Baseball America had it as well (Harper-Trout).

Clearly those people that are paid to predict future greatness for youngsters all think the same thing – Trout will be a superstar in the big leagues.

The Angels pulled a surprising move by calling up Trout to the big league club because of the hamstring injury suffered by Peter Bourjos Thursday (Bourjos isn’t going to play through the weekend, but a decision to place him on the DL is not a foregone conclusion). You might be asking yourself – why is it surprising that the Angels would call up a prospect who everyone agrees has such a luminous future? The answer is that Trout is just 19 years old (he wont turn 20 for a month). So what are my thoughts on Trout, a kid who is barely old enough to join the armed forces and isn’t legally able to drink alcohol?

THE SKILLS

You don’t end up at the top, or near the top, of every prospect list without an overabundance of skills. Trout is 6’1”, 200 lbs, and he brings elite speed to the table. His power is still developing, but he does have a pretty advanced understanding of the strike zone for a player his age. He’s also roundly given the thumbs up when it comes to his maturity level – he’s not one of these punk kids we see so often.

Trout was hitting .330 with a .422 OBP in the minors this season.

He’d also gone deep nine times with 28 steals in just 74 games played.

In three seasons in the minors Trout owns a slash line of .338/.423/.503.

Toss in 97 steals in just 250 games and you can plainly see why everyone is so high on this kid.

Think Grady Sizemore at his peak, a 20/30 guy who will score a ton of runs, and that’s what Trout will likely be one day. Notice I said one day and not today…

THE OUTLOOK

The last teenager in the majors was Justin Upton in 2007 if I’m not mistaken. As wonderful a player as Upton is, he hit only .221 in 140 at-bats that year. It’s just not that easy to make the jump from the minors to the majors. It’s also not easy to make the move when you have only 74 games under your belt above Single-A ball. Mix in the fact that Trout hasn’t even been on Earth for two decades yet, and the road is likely to be bumpy. If Trout hits the ground running, I decided to leave out some lame joke about a stream or river, he could stick with the Angels. However, if he struggles at all the club will not hesitate to send him back to the minors. Also, if Bourjos doesn’t need a DL stint, the team would likely turn the starting spot back over to him since they are pleased with his bat and feel that he is the best defensive center fielder in baseball.

Keeper Leagues: Fall all over yourself to add Trout.

AL-only League: Spend that FAAB money liberally.

Mix Leagues: It’s a crap shoot. Don’t go all in, but if you have a roster spot feel free to add the mega talent.

Now, a mailbag question.

I’m sure you’re on this for an upcoming article but wanted to check and see what hitters/pitchers are 2nd half performers? May be some good insight for possible trades.
– Jim

I will be giving my BUY/SELL thoughts on players next week. However, I don’t put much into ‘this guy is really good in the second half’ stuff. It’s so random. Here is a an example.

Someone might be considered to be a 2nd half hitter because of a .300 batting average. However, if you actually look at his second half performances maybe he’s hit .375, .225, .335 and .265 the past four years. Overall he’s a .300 hitter in the second half, but his performances have been all over the map if you go year by year. Basically saying first/second half is just as random as saying July/August. They are just random points to start analyzing the data. Remember that before you make a deal for a guy who is a “second half player.”

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 22, 2011

(1) Slow starts for Carl Crawford and Carlos Gonzalez.

(2) Torii Hunter struggling as bad as Vernon Wells.

(3) Josh Beckett looking aces, just like I wrote he would be in Is Josh Beckett Finished?

(4) James Loney looks terrible.

(5) Mat Latos struggling.

(6) Brandon Wood claimed by Pirates. For more on Wood see Conspiracies and Comebacks.

By Ray Flowers