Mailbag: September6, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Three keepers between Aramis Ramirez, Elvis Andrus, Zack Greinke, Anthony Rizzo, David Ortiz and Mike Morse?
– @SammyLlenas

Keeper questions are always tough. Are there dollar figures attached? Are there contract years attached to the players? What positions does your league start? Five outfielder or three? Corner and Middle infielders? How many teams in your league? In lieu of that information, I’ll just dive right in and give my thoughts.

Ramirez is dealing with a minor back issue, but it hasn’t precluded him from doing what he always does, and that is performing like a top-10 third baseman. After a slow start to the year he’s predictably killed it of late. Through 126 games this season he’s hitting .295 with 21 homers, 89 RBIs and 43 doubles, an NL leading total. There’s also this. In each of the the last nine seasons in which he has appeared in 123 games Aramis has hit at least 21 homers with 85 RBIs. He is 34, and his fly ball rate has declined the past two years, so 30 homers isn’t likely to happen anymore, but the rest of his game is still nails.

Andrus has hit .298 this year, the best of his four year career. His OBP is .361, the best of his young career. His SLG is .391, the best of his young career. That’s all good stuff. His steal total is down a bit with 20, after 3-straight years of 30 steals, so that’s a concern in the fantasy world. He’s also scored 76 times putting him on pace to pretty much inch up to his 92 runs scored average the past two years. Given his age, the offense he plays in, and the improvements in his game at the plate, and the position he plays, he’s a very attractive keeper option.

Greinke has improved his work of late, after a rough start to his return to the AL. I spoke about the Angels’ hurler in my Around the Horn video.

Rizzo started out on fire when called up by the Cubs, but he’s predictably regressed. Oh he’s still hitting a solid .290 with 11 homers in 241 at-bats, an excellent turnaround after last years unmitigated disaster with the Padres (.141 with one homer in 128 at-bats). Rizzo has hit .238 with 12 homers in 369 career at-bats, terrible numbers for a corner infield option in mixed leagues. Even if we just forget about last season with the Padres, Rizzo’s current pace, spread out over 550 at-bats, would lead to a season of .290-25-73-68, and those just aren’t very impressive numbers for a mixed league first baseball. There’s also the fact that he’s been a below average fly ball hitter in his young career, and that his current line drive rate of 26 percent just isn’t sustainable.

Ortiz has played just nine games at first base the past two years. As a designated hitter only option in the fantasy game, Ortiz’ value is somewhat limited. It won’t matter if he’s hitting .318 with a 1.026 OPS like he has this year. Unfortunately for Ortiz, the last time that he posted an OPS over 1.000 was 2007. There’s also the matter of him hitting .257/.356/.498 from 2008-10. Is it really safe to assume that a 37 year old, coming off a significant Achilles injury, is going to continue to hit as well as he did this season? I’ll answer that question for you. No it is not. I’m not saying that Ortiz couldn’t pop 30 homers and knock in 100 runs next year, that’s possible given his resurgence, but he’s not likely to hit .300, he isn’t going to post a .415 OBP (his current mark), and he’s not going to maintain that .611 SLG. Just not gonna happen.

Morse hit .303 with 31 homers and 95 RBIs last season, his first full season in the big leagues. Already 30 years old, he’s a bit older than you likely thought. He’s battled successfully through injuries this season hitting .287 with 12 homers and 47 RBIs through 82 games, but that effort is well off his pace from last season (is he were to maintain his pace over the 522 at-bats he had last season he would hit .287 with 19 homers and 79 RBIs). I’m also tremendously concerned by the fact that he’s just been unable to learn how to take a pitch. After a mere 36 walks last year he’s become even less patient this year with just 13 walks. Thirteen. It’s pretty amazing he’s hit nearly .300 since the start of last season given that fact.

Ortiz is too old to keep, and with the utility only eligibility, I’ll pass. Greinke is a top level arm, but in a setup where you are only keeping three players I see little need to hold a pitcher who isn’t a top-10 option. Who is the last guy I would let go? For me, it’s Morse or Rizzo (I’m holding Aramis and Andrus). Rizzo may or may not be more productive than Morse next season, but he is seven years younger and does have a higher ceiling. Given that fact I’d lean Rizzo, though at the same time it’s not the easiest call I’ve ever made given that I have no faith that Rizzo will be a top-50 fantasy player in 2013.

Who do you like rest of the way, Ryan Ludwick, Mark Reynolds, or Delmon Young?
– @LorenzKong2

Ludwick has hit .276 with 25 homers and 72 RBIs in just 373 at-bats this season. He’s also been a star in the second half hitting .321 with 13 homers, 38 RBIs an a 1.016 OPS in 48 games. While all of that sounds like Ludwick should be the must hold here, what about these two salient points. (1) Ludwick last hit a homer on August 18th meaning he’s gone 14 games without a homer. He’s also produced just three RBIs in that time. He’s not exactly trending up. (2) Ludwick hit .237 with 13 homers last year, and .251 with 17 homers in 2010. Not exactly a solid set of efforts. In fact, since a career best season in 2008, Ludwick regressed each of the past three seasons before returning to prominence this year.

Reynolds has been a massive disappointment. Still, some notes. (1) His .232 batting average is only five points off his career rate. (2) His .350 OBP would be a career best. (3) His .797 OPS is only .016 points off his career pace. (4) His 0.47 BB/K mark would be a career best. Ditto his 30.3 percent K-rate. (5) His 22.2 percent line drive rate would be a career best. He’s failed to reach even 17.5 percent the past three years. So why the struggles this year? His power stroke vanished for a long while. The good news is that it’s back. With a vengeance. In his last six games he’s gone deep six times, has driven in 13 runs, and scored eight times. Going back further, over his last 28 games, Reynolds is hitting .304 with a 1.113 OPS, 20 runs scored, 23 RBIs and 10 homers. Killing it (the folks over at Fleaflicker are starting to take notice).

Young doesn’t have near the power of the other two options, but he is a very stable option at the dish, something the other two men can’t exactly claim to be. He’s also surging over his last 30 games. Young is hitting .321 with six bombs and 20 RBIs for the Tigers. The power isn’t likely to last, his total of 17 homers is already the second best mark of his six year career (he’s averaged 14 homers a season the last five years). He is a .286 career hitter, so that .277 batting average could come up a tad without anyone raising an eyebrow.

Young is hot, and is the best option in batting average. Ludwick has had a nice bounce back season, a terrific one in fact, but he has slumped. Reynolds is the hottest hitter at the moment, and the one likely to make the biggest dent the rest of the way. A .300 batting average from Delmon over 100 at-bats isn’t going to do much of anything for a team that has racked up thousands upon thousands of at-bats. Reynolds could help in the homer, RBI and runs scored enough to help a team gain a point here or there in the standings.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 at 7 PM EDT, Monday through Thursday, and Friday’s from 9-12 PM EDT. 

Daily Joust – Wk 22: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Pedro Alvarez (+13, $108,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
Who leads NL third basemen in homers? Pedro Alvarez with 27. He’s also knocked in 74 runners, scored 56 times and, somewhat surprisingly, has posted a .250 batting average to this point of the season. That’s not a number to throw a party for, but after hitting .191 last year in a lost season of 235 at-bats, its a pretty impressive mark (he’s actually hitting .280 with a .888 OPS over his last 45 games). Alvarez is currently on one of his patented hot streaks as he’s racked up 14 hits in his last eight games while going deep four times with eight RBIs over his last five contests.

Derek Holland (+41, $341K)
Winner of his last three starts, Holland has allowed a total of eight runs over those 20 innings (3.60 ERA). Holland has also done a very good job limiting the free passes the past six times he has taken the bump walking a total of eight batters. Moreover, only once in 10 outings has he waked more than two batters. His WHIP is a solid 1.21, reflecting the lack of walks, but his ERA is still mighty elevated at 4.79. The main reason is the long ball. After being taken deep 22 times last year in 32 starts he’s allowed 25 homers in just 23 outings this season including 13 in his last nine starts. Once he starts keeping the ball in the yard his performance could take off.

Ricky Nolasco (+130, $285K)
I have an unhealthy connection with Nolasco, just like you did with that significant other in college who was all wrong for you even though kept going back because the “special time” (wink, wink) you spent together was enough to cover over the crazy (I kinda miss those days actually. Wait, did I just type that? Bad Ray.). I want to turn away from Nolasco, one of the more frustrating pitchers in the game to own, because his skills always say he should be better than the results. Just look at his last four starts: 2 ER, 5 ER, 5 ER, 0 ER (the last effort a nine inning shutout of the Nationals). Still, I have to put my bias aside and offer this note of caution – yes he looked spectacular last time out, but he’s also allowed four earned runs or more in seven of his last nine outings. How close to that fire can you get before your eyebrows are singed off?

Rickie Weeks (+17, $89K)
About frickin’ time Rickie. The older Weeks’ brother has 10 hits in his last four games as he’s also scored an amazing nine times. Over his last 30 contests he’s swiped five bags, scored 26 times and hit .295. That’s about as hot as most players ever get. Weeks certainly has more talent than about 90 percent of the players in the game, but maddening inconsistency is the phrase of the day when it comes to describing his production. Through 472 at-bats this season he’s hit .227 but he’s somehow still on the cusp of a 15/15 season (14/12) with 85 runs a definite possibility (he’s scored 68 times).

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Carlos Gonzalez (-29, $86K)
I’ve received a handful of queries from people wondering what they should do with CarGo. My advice, the same as always is – you play him. I know he hit .222 with one homer and two steals in 23 games in August, but you still play him everyday. Come on folks, the guys is hitting .309 with a .903 OPS on the year. He’s just four steals from a 20/20 effort for a third straight season. A strong finish could also net him 100 RBIs and 100 runs (83 and 82 right now). Yes it’s been uneven, but overall Carlos has been the superstar he has been the past two years.

James McDonald (-113, $195K)
I’ve finally had it myself with McDonald. Look, if you had told me five months ago that James would have 12 wins, a 3.90 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 147 Ks in 161.2 innings this year I would have sign ‘sign me up for that.’ Overall he’s been a fantastic waiver-wire add in mixed leagues. At the same time, he’s been abysmal of late. In two of his last four outings he didn’t allow a single earned run, but in seven of the other eight outings in his last 10 appearances he’s allowed at least four earned runs and five or more runs five times. The result is a second half ERA of 7.14 an a WHIP of 1.70 over 10 starts. That seems an awful lot more than just a minor hiccup, doesn’t it?

Anthony Rizzo (-31, $70K)
Rizzo has done a fine job adapting to big league pitching this season after last year’s disaster (.141 in 128 at-bats). Rizzo is hitting a solid .287 with 10 homers, 31 RBIs and 27 runs scored over 60 games (that’s a 150 game pace for 25 homers, 78 RBIs). However, he’s hit .169 with a .526 OPS against left handed pitching, he batted only .252 in August with a sickly .642 OPS, and he’s gone deep just two times in his last 32 games. He’s young and will certainly figure it out, but he’s struggling right now.

Jason Vargas (-42, $340K)
Just like with McDonald, five months ago a 13 win, 3.90 ERA, 1.18 WHIP effort would have been a strong season for Vargas (career 4.38 ERA, 1.31 WHIP with 10 victories being a season-high). However his last two outings have been disastrous as he’s allowed five homers, 11 earned runs (12 total) and last just 8.2 innings. A pathetic couple of outings or the start of an awful finish to the season? Given his career performance, and his skill set, some further regression is still quite possible.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

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By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June26, 2012

(1) Anthony Rizzo called up by Cubs. Will he kill it from the start?

(2) Trevor Bauer called up by D’backs. An ace in the making?

(3) Kevin Youkilis dealt to White Sox. Can he put it back together?

(4) Chase Utley nearing return. Should you be excited?

(5) Everth Cabrera – speed demon worth a look

(6) John Buck – a power source?

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June21, 2012

Each week I’ll answer some of the questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Give up R.A. Dickey to get Mike Tout in 12 team roto?
– @Thewolph86

I recently spoke about Dickey in my Around the Horn video. If you don’t want to take the time to watch my ugly mug talk about him, here are the highlights of what I talked about.

Dickey has allowed one run in five starts.

He’s hurled 42.2 innings without allowing an earned run.

He’s also made 5-straight starts with at least eight Ks and no earned runs allowed, and that is the longest such streak in the history of the game.

His 11 wins lead baseball.

His 2.00 ERA is the best in baseball (tied with the Tommy John surgery headed Brandon Beachy).

He’s second in the NL with 103 strikeouts.

You can make a valid argument, I’m serious here, that Dickey has been the best pitcher in fantasy baseball this year. The fact that he has done that throwing a knuckle ball 86 percent of the time simply boggles the mind, I mean like I discovered how to time time travel and had Izabel Goulart fall in love with me on the same day ridiculous.

Trout has been a dominating force in the fantasy game, and as I pointed out in the video link above, he may be the best player in fantasy baseball since he was called up. Currently hitting .338, second in the AL, and leading the circuit with 19 steals, here is the pace that Trout is on if he were to rack up 600 at-bats this season: .338-18-86-123-58. Those are insanely good numbers, so good in fact that the five-some of figures has never been posted in one season by one player in the history of baseball.

Which player will keep up their historic pace? I think it’s safe to say neither.

Which player would I rather have? I’d go with Trout. Every person that has ever seen Trout play has thought to themselves ‘this guy is a superstar.’ Hell, Dickey’s family has never even thought that once.

Cody Ross or Dexter Fowler rest of season?
– @AshburnCapsFan

You have to love the East Coast and how it causes people to lose their minds (I write that while listening to Empire State of Mind by Jay-Z and Alicia Keys by the way). Somehow people have been brainwashed into thinking that Ross is a must add player in 12 team leagues. Even if you’re starting five outfielders, I’m gonna say that Ross is nothing more then a depth play. The last time Ross hit .275 was an abbreviated 2007. The last time he hit 15 homers was 2009. In a career that began in 2003 he has one season with 75 RBI (90 back in 2009). He’s stolen more than six bases one time (nine in 2010). What in that history lesson suggests that Ross is a lock to start everyday in a fantasy lineup? ‘But Ray, he’s socked nine homers with 25 RBIs in just 39 games this year.’ So what. What’s done is done, and he isn’t going to maintain that pace. He’s striking out at a career worst rate (25.0 percent), isn’t going to keep a HR/F ratio of 21 percent after failing to reach even 15 percent the past four seasons, and he’s hitting .271 with zero steals.

Fowler has been in an out of the lineup a bit recently and you can’t blame the Rockies for that given that he’s hitting .216 in June. Still, this is the guy you want here. Fowler may never live up to expectations given that consistency has always eluded him, and he’s hit just .169 with one homer on the road this season continuing a career trend of struggles away from Coors (career .876 OPS at home and .678 on the road), but he’s the better talent and he has the more dynamic skill set. You can find 18 homer, 70 RBI guys on the waiver wire, but good luck find a guy who who could go 15/15 while scoring 75 runs and knocking in 75 (Fowler is on pace for an effort of .264-19-75-85-17).

Assuming Kevin Youkilis gets traded and Anthony Rizzo is up. Points league: Rizzo or Will Middlebrooks?
– @ogden56

I don’t ever recall a career .141 hitter with less than 50-games of big league experience ever drawing this much attention. Look, I know that Rizzo has elite talent and everyone is gaga over his potential, but what on Earth did he do last year besides being the worst hitter in baseball when he was with the Padres? Rizzo produced one of five seasons in the 21st century of a batter hitting under .150 in 150 plate appearances or more (J.R. Towles, Brandon Wood, Michael Saunders and Jason LaRue re the others). ‘But Ray, Rizzo is killing it in the minors this season.’ Newsflash everyone, he killed it last year in the minors too despite his catastrophic failure with the Padres.

2011 (Triple-A): .331-26-101 with a 1.056 OPS in 93 games

Does that mean that he will have immediate success when the Cubs call him up this time around since he’s been even better this year in the minors?

2012 (Triple-A): .360-23-59 with a 1.115 OPS in 64 games

I’ll remind you of these facts.

Chris Davis has hit .337 with a 1.006 OPS in Triple-A over four years with an average of 28 homers and 106 RBIs per 500 at-bats. Did he have immediate success in the big leagues? Of course not.

Alex Gordon was the Minor League Player of the Year in 2006 after hitting .325 with 29 homers, 101 RBI, 111 runs and 22 steals in just 130 games. Did he have immediate success in the big leagues? Of course not.

Paul Konerko was the #2 prospect in baseball in 1998 after hitting .323 with 37 homers, 127 RBI and 97 runs in 130 minor league games in 1997. He hit .214 with seven homers in his first 224 big league at-bats.

The bottom line is that the path to success isn’t always smooth and linear. I’d take Middlebrooks who continues to impress, has had success at the big league level (.303-7-27 with a .863 OPS in 37 games), and for the fact that he plays third base.

Is Dillon Gee worth a pickup 12 team league?
– @ErikJKatz

Yes.

Of course it would depend on your current pitching staff, but Gee is one of those guys floating around on waiver-wire’s in a lot of 12 team mixed leagues (just check out his owned percentage over at Fleaflicker), and he’s a great guy to target if you’re in need of a boost on the hill.

On the surface Gee has a 4.27 ERA and a 5-3 record. Yippee right? But look beneath that and you see a guy who is gaining momentum. Over his last seven starts he’s pitched at least six innings without allowing more than three earned runs every time (that’s 7-straight “quality starts”). Over his last five outings he’s only walked nine batter. Over his last six outings he’s struck out 40 batters. On the year he owns an 8.24 K/9 mark and his BB/9 rate is 2.48 leading to an impressive 3.32 K/BB ratio. He’s also eliciting plenty of grounders from batters with a 53 percent ground ball rate leading to a 1.94 GB/FB ratio. If you have a K/BB ratio over 3.30 and your GB/FB ratio is over 1.90 you are going to have a ton of long term success. A ton.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT.

Rookie Roundup

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

I always caution people not to go “all in” with rookies. The lure is intense, I’m not going to deny that, but in the end youngsters often end up disappointing because of the unreasonable expectations placed upon them. With that, here are my thoughts on some of the more heralded rookies who many were banking on getting great results from in 2011.

Dustin Ackley (.267-1-3-2-0 in 15 ABs)
Ackley is off to a solid start to his big league career with a hit in each of his four games played. He’s only whiffed one time though we’ve yet to see his trademark ability to get on base as he has only one walk. The Mariners say he’s going to play every day, and with that he is an intriguing mixed league option. I wrote about Ackley in The Prospect Trinity.

Domonic Brown (.213-4-11-11-2 in 94 ABs)
Brown has tons of talent, all the physical tools needed to be a fantasy star really, but he’s still a pretty raw ballplayer. Add in his work from last season and we are looking at a guy with a .212/.274/.385 slash line in 156 big league at-bats. The six homers and 24 RBI in that time are passable, as are the four steals, but the fact of the matter is that Brown still needs to hone his ample skills because he’s shown little consistency with the Phillies.

Eric Hosmer (.276-5-22-20-2 in 17 ABs)
The Royals’ phenom burst on to the scene with five homers and 17 RBI in his first 23 games. However, in the 18 games since his hot start he’s managed a mere .615 OPS thanks in part to zero homers in 71 at-bats. He’s also knocked in only five runs in the month of June. Given how deep the first base position is, it may be time to see if you can convince someone in your league that Hosmer is the hitter he was in May and not the guy who is struggling to keep his OBP (.326) and SLG (.418) at league average levels (.323 and .397).

Desmond Jennings (.282-10-33-52-12 in 262 ABs at Triple-A)
Jennings has show more power this season than at any point of his development, but unfortunately he’s pretty much stopped running on the bases. Given his skill set he’s going to be paid to steal 40+ bases, not to power 25 homers, so he’d be well served to get back to that approach. With Matt Joyce struggling and Johnny Damon being a potential trade chip at the deadline, Jennings will be called up at some point, though it remains to be seen how imminent the call will be. See The Prospect Trinity, linked to above, for more thoughts on Jennings.

Brett Lawrie (.354-15-49-51-11 in 223 ABs)
He was tearing it up in the minors and was mere days, literally, from being a starting member of the Blue Jays when fate stepped in. Lawrie ended up suffering a fractured hand that he is still working his way back from. It’s highly unlikely we will see him with the Jays before the All-Star break at this point, and that’s if when he returns to action that he picks up where he left off, far from a certainty given his injury. See The Prospect Trinity, linked to above, for more thoughts on Lawrie.

Jesus Montero (.291-5-25-25 in 227 ABs)
Russell Martin has done pretty well this season, Francisco Cervelli is an adequate backup backstop, and Jorge Posada is also always around if the Yankees need a hand behind the dish. That’s a lot of names that Montero will have to jump over. There is always the chance that the club will call him up to DH, but Posada has improved of late (.395 in June) and you would have to think that in the heat of the pennant race that the Yankees would make a move to add a veteran bat if they needed a hitter versus turning things over to an unproven rookie.

Anthony Rizzo (.167-1-2-3-0 in 36 ABs)
First off, it’s merely 36 at-bats, so no one should be panicking. However, Rizzo hasn’t been able to carry over his success in the minors as of yet, something I predicted could happen in my June 7, 2011 Mailbag article. The good news for Rizzo is that the team is committed to him and he will continue to play every day despite the slow start. However, it should be pointed out that he has struck out in a third of his at-bats and has just one RBI in his last nine games.

Speaking of youngsters, I dug up an old article I wrote about the Arizona Fall League in November 2009. You might want to give it a read to see what my first hand impressions were about Ackley, Brown, Mike Moustakas, Ike Davis, Buster Posey and Jemile Weeks amongst others. How accurate were my initial thoughts after watching games for three days?

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: June 7, 2011

photo © 2008 Dave Nakayama | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Am I crazy to Consider dropping Adam Dunn for Anthony Rizzo? Dunn is killing me.
– @Dorman06

Allow me to be stupid for a moment.

For each of the past seven years Adam Dunn has hit 38 homers with 92 RBI. How many such seasons has Anthony Rizzo ever had? Obviously the answer is zero. In fact, Rizzo’s minor league high for homers is 25.

Dunn has been beyond horrible hitting even worse than teammate Alex Rios at .176 with five homers through 188 at-bats causing people to flee like he has the bubonic plague, so let me ask you – do you really think that a guy who is 31 years old just lost “it” overnight? My point is that his own history, as well as common sense, should be telling you that at some point the light will click on and he will return to being the power bat he always has. The question is, will that occur in time for him to be a more productive bat than Rizzo in 2011?

Rizzo is a luminous prospect who is just killing it in Triple-A this season hitting .365 with 16 homers and 63 RBI through a mere 52 games. The Padres have started to use Brad Hawpe in the outfield with the expectation that Rizzo will take over at first base at some point in the very near future (perhaps this week). However, there are some real concerns that should be voiced here.

(1) For every Eric Hosmer who just shows up hitting, there are twenty Justin Smoak’s who take a while to figure it out. The transition from the minors to the majors is a massive step, and not all youngsters are capable of making the needed adjustments right off the bat.

(2) The Padres have the worst batting average (.231), the lowest OBP (.300), the worst SLG (.335) and the fewest runs scored (231) in the National League. That sure doesn’t sound like there is a great supporting cast awaiting Rizzo in San Diego, does it?

(3) Petco Park is murder on power hitters. The last three years, according to Park Indices, Petco is the worst park in the National League for home runs (22 percent below the league average). It’s even more dreadful when it comes to left-handed power hitters. Oh it’s still dead last in the NL, but for lefties the Park Indices mark is 59 or 41 percent below the league average. There isn’t a harder park in baseball for a left-handed power hitter, and its just not power that Petco saps. Over the past three years the yard is also last in the NL in average, doubles, and runs scored. It’s a brutal hitting environment.

So what would I do? As great as Rizzo has been this season down on the farm, and as poorly as Dunn has performed in his first year with the White Sox, I’m still going to suggest staying with Dunn. I keep coming back to the obvious fact, and that is that Rizzo doesn’t have a single at-bat in the majors while Dunn is still working on a steak of 7-straight seasons of 38 homers and 92 RBI, the second longest streak in the history of the game (the record of nine is held by Rafael Palmeiro, while Babe Ruth is tied with Dunn at seven). Rizzo could easily be an all-star one day, but for now, I’m going with the proven commodity, even if he is struggling right now.

I’m curious why you have Jaime Garcia out of the Top-50 in your ROTW pitcher rankings?
– Mike

For those of you wondering what Mike is talking about, I released my Rest of the Way rankings recently, and I listed Garcia at 51st amongst starting pitchers (for the entire list you can read ROTW Rankings: Pitchers. There is also a link in that piece to my ROTW rankings for hitters). So we are all clear, by ROTW rankings I mean from here on only, i.e. I’m not counting numbers that have been posted to this point of  the season.

So why am I so “down” on Garcia? Some thoughts.

(1) Even at #51 overall, if we are talking about a 12-team mixed league, I’m saying Garcia will have a shot to a #4 starting pitcher in the fantasy game the rest of the way, so I’m not really that down on him.

(2) Garcia’s never thrown 175 innings in a season. Garcia has had multiple issues with his arm, and with it being so valuable, there are more than a couple of reasons that the Cardinals could limit him to 180-190 innings this season after keeping him to 163.1 innings last season. Such a decision would obviously curtail Garcia’s value, that is if he can stay healthy.

(3) Garcia has upped his K/9 mark from 7.27 last year to 8.33 while seeing his walk rate per nine dip from 3.53 to 2.11. It’s tough to believe he will be able to keep his K/9 rate a batter above last season while also keeping his walked rate a batter and a half below his ’10 mark. Pitchers just don’t make jumps like that in both categories from one year to the next.

(4) A first rate ground ball pitcher, Garcia’s GB-rate has regressed slightly from 56 percent to 53 percent. It’s still a superb mark, and perhaps the level will raise the rest of the season, but it should be monitored, especially when we consider that his fly ball rate is up five percent from 26 to 31 percent.

Garcia’s taking his whole game to the next level. Can he stay there? That is certainly possible. But his numbers were already strong last year before this season’s growth, and when you add in his career long durability issues I’m just leery that the rest of the season will match his hot start.

Brent Lillibridge continues to see PT. Is he worth a bench spot in a 14-team mixer?
– @baseballjunkie

With Alex Rios continuing to hit like a 5th outfielder just hoping to hold on to a big league roster spot (.199/.253/.301), Lillibridge has been getting a look in the outfield for the White Sox.

Let’s keep things in perspective here. Lillibridge had three homers in 273 at-bats entering the year, so his total of seven in 77 at-bats sure seems like an outlier. This is confirmed by looking at his minor league numbers which included one homer every 47.7 at-bats (currently that mark is one every 11). Coming into this season Lillibridge had hit .194 with a .551 OPS as a big leaguer. His average is up about .100 points to .286 this season and his OPS has nearly doubled (1.008). During nearly 2,000 minor league at-bats he has hit .268 with a .758 OPS, so obviously his current level of production seems ridiculous. Lillibridge can steal bases, and with a full season of work 20 steals, his current pace, does seem like a pace he can keep up. Still, other than the steals, there seems to be no way that Lillibridge would be capable of sustaining his current level of production.

Do you add him in a 14 team league? You can if you need a pick me up, especially since he qualifies at second and the outfield, but realize nothing the previous three years in the bigs, or his six seasons in the minors, supports the bat that he is swinging right now.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.