Youngsters in the News

photo © 2011 Neon Tommy | more info (via: Wylio)

People get giddy when they are around greatness. They also loose their minds when they think they have a chance to be in on the ground floor of something big. That’s why all we’ve heard about lately is Brett Lawrie, Anthony Rizzo, Desmond Jennings and Dustin Ackley (I wrote about three of those guys in The Prospect Trinity). I’ve been preaching caution with the expectation train with those four players, and to illustrate how precarious the path to greatness is I thought I would discuss four second year players that are having varying degrees of success this season.

Starlin Castro is hitting .301, one point better than the .300 mark he attained as a rookie. However, after hitting .348 in April he has managed to post a mere .261 mark over his last 134 at-bats. As for his power stroke – it still is MIA. Castro is displaying no power with only one homer in 249 at-bats. So much for the power surge we saw in the post-season (I said he wouldn’t be able to keep that up to anyone that would listen). Castro hasn’t been able to translate his speed into stolen bases either as he has five steals on the year but only o-n-e since April 26th. I wrote about Castro back in February in Second Year Players and warned everyone not to overvalue a player who would likely only offer a boost in the batting average category. You didn’t listen did you?

Aroldis Chapman is struggling – big time. The guy might throw 100+ mph and illicit outright joy in fans who get to watch the radar gun with every blazing pitch, but the results just haven’t been there this season. In 13 innings with the Reds he walked an utterly amazing 20 batters leading to a 13.85 BB/9 mark and a 6.92 ERA. In 5.1 innings since he was sent down to “rehab” a shoulder injury (I’m not buying he is really hurt), Chapman has walked only three batters but he’s allowed 12 hits and 10 runs leading to a 16.88 ERA and 2.81 WHIP. The Reds have to get this guy “fixed,” but with the way he’s throwing right now they clearly aren’t even close to meeting that goal.

Jason Heyward is soft. That’s the prevailing thought amongst baseball people, and he did nothing to quiet that belief when he stated that he wouldn’t return to the field until his shoulder was 100 percent. Well, count Chipper Jones as a guy who thinks it’s time for the youngster to buck up. “I think where Jason might have erred was the comment that he made, ‘I’m not coming back until it doesn’t hurt anymore,” Jones said. “…there are a bunch of his teammates that are out there playing with discomfort and not healthy, and still going at it.” Heyward hasn’t played since May 21st, and what was supposed to be a relatively minor issue with his shoulder has now stretched on for a much greater length of time than anyone thought. When you’re being called out in the media by the greatest infielder in team history as Heyward is, it might be time to give yourself a long, hard look in the mirror. Hopefully Heyward will listen and do his best to get back out on the field.

Carlos Santana is hitting .227 and everyone is disappointed in the guy who was supposed to be the breakout star at the catchers position. However, there are plenty of reasons to turn that frown upside down. First, Santana is on pace for about 15 homers, a strong total for a catcher. He’s also on pace for 60 RBI and 60 runs scored. It may not sound like much, but 15-60-60 are totals that only Victor Martinez and Brian McCann matched last season at the catchers position. In addition, Santana has two more walks than strikeouts leading to a .361 OBP, a fantastic mark give his batting average. Trust me, you don’t walk more than you strike out and hit .227. He’s already turned things around the past two weeks as he’s hit .324 with nine RBI, thanks in part to a slight change in his batting stance (he eliminated a toe tap). Santana seems primed to still meet expectations this season.

 

By Ray Flowers

Conspiracies and Comebacks

photo © 2010 Dirk | more info (via: Wylio)

Chucking a fastball hard is a thrill. Throwing it fast enough that major league hitters can’t put lumber on it is exhilarating. Throwing it 106 mph is epic. Depending on which reading, i.e. radar gun, you believe, Aroldis Chapman tossed a pitch at 106 mph earlier this week. However, another reading at the game said the pitch came in at 105 while another had the pitch at 102.4. How is is that the pitch was recorded at three different velocities? Jeff Passan has a fascinating article about the pitch and how mph marks are recorded in Chapman’s 106-mph Fastball Was Likely Bogus.

Jed Lowrie is the hot add in all circles, and who could be blamed for wanting to add the Red Sox infielder who is hitting an amazing .457 with nine RBI and eight runs scored through 12 games. Here’s what I have to say about Lowrie.

(1) You had better add Lowrie immediately if you are going to make the move. If we assume he hits .300 in 500 at-bats this season that means he is going to hit .288 the rest of the way (134 for 465). Each day you wait, that average will likely fall – that is unless you think he has a legitimate shot to bat better than .300 this year.

(2) Lowrie is a fine hitter, but make sure you don’t overvalue his recent work. I know he has hit .316 with 11 homers since the start of last season, but are you really thinking he is going to be able to keep up a .315, 30 homer pace? You really think he is the next Alex Rodriguez at shortstop? Don’t forget that he his slash line was .235/.313/.423 over his first 349 at-bats with the Red Sox.

(3) Lowrie is clearly white hot and deserves to be starting, but will he be able to hold off Marco Scutaro all year? It’s not like the Red Sox don’t have the money to pay a guy $5 million to come off the bench, but Scutaro has been a very solid hitter the past two years who has produced an average 5×5 line of .279-12-58-96-10. Are the Sox going to give up on him completely after just three weeks? I kind of doubt that.

Brandon Wood was designated for assignment on Tuesday meaning that his tenure as an Angel might finally be over. At one point named the #3 prospect in all of baseball by Baseball America (2006), Wood has been an unmitigated disaster in the big leagues. In 464 career at-bats he has hit .168 with 11 homers, 33 RBI, a .197 OBP and a .455 OPS. How historically pitiful is that effort? Amongst players who have had 475 plate appearances in their careers while primarily playing third base, Wood has the second worst average ever (.169), the worst OBP (.198) and the second worst OPS (.458)… in the history of the game. How a guy who owns a .284/.352/.536 line in more than 750 minor league games, and one who had one of the greatest minor league seasons in recent memory in 2005 (.321-43-116-110 in just 134 games) has been unable to do anything in the big leagues is one of the greatest mysterious of the 21st century. Maybe Wood lost his game in the woods while he was searching for Bigfoot.

 

I know it has nothing to do with baseball, but as an unabashed San Jose Sharks I just have to mention it. Did you see that the Sharks came back in Game 3 against the Kings from a 4-0 deficit to win 6-5 in OT? That effort was just the fourth in the history of the NHL playoffs in which a team was able to overcome a four goal deficit to win. If you get a chance to see the game on reply jump all over it. The one word I keep using to describe it – amazing.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 14, 2011

(1) Braves plan on leaving Jason Heyward down in the batting order.

(2) Is Alex Gordon for real?

(3) Should you be worried about the velocity drop of Aroldis Chapman?

(4) Reports of Lance Berkman’s demise were greatly overrated.

(5) Carlos Pena still has pain in his right thumb from April 4th injury.

(6) Chris Young dealing with biceps tendonitis. What a shock.

(7) Pablo Sandoval continues his early season surge.

By Ray Flowers

Top-50 Relief Pitchers

Photo by Nick Fisher

 

Earlier this week I released the 2011 Pitcher Capsules in a collaborative effort with Paul Sporer. Unlike hitters where I broke down everything you need to know in my 2011 Hitter Capsules, I didn’t have any input in terms of pitchers in the above linked guide. Therefore, I thought I would share with you my personal rankings for starting pitchers and relievers.

Top-100 Starting Pitchers

In this entry I’ll breakdown my top-50 relievers for 2011.

Pitchers in bold are hurlers I would target as values in drafts. I’ll also give some general thoughts at the end of the rankings.

TOP-50 RELIEVERS

1 Brian Wilson

2 Joakim Soria

3 Heath Bell

4 Carlos Marmol

5 Jonathan Papelbon

6 Jonathan Axford

7 Neftali Feliz

8 Mariano Rivera

9 Andrew Bailey

10 Joel Hanrahan

11 Chris Perez

12 Jose Valverde

13 Matt Thornton

14 Jonathan Broxton

15 Huston Street

16 Brad Lidge

17 J.J. Putz

18 Francisco Rodriguez

19 Leo Nunez

20 Ryan Franklin

21 Drew Storen

22 Francisco Cordero

23 Craig Kimbrel

24 Joe Nathan

25 Frank Francisco

26 Jake McGee

27 Kevin Gregg

28 Fernando Rodney

29 Brandon League

30 Brandon Lyon

31 Hong-Chih Kuo

32 Ryan Madson

33 Luke Gregerson

34 Aroldis Chapman

35 Matt Capps

36 Jonny Venters

37 Rafael Soriano

38 Evan Meek

39 Kenley Jansen

40 David Aardsma

41 Daniel Bard

42 Mike Adams

43 Chris Sale

44 Scott Downs

45 Koji Uehara

46 Joba Chamberlain

47 Brian Fuentes

48 Kyle Farnsworth

49 Alexi Ogando

50 Tyler Clippard

 

* I’d feel really comfortable with any of the top-15 closers on this list, then things start to get a bit spotty.

* Brad Lidge (16) has the full trust of his manager Charlie Manuel, so as long as he is healthy, even if his ratios are sub par, you have to think 30 saves are a given.

* J.J. Putz (17) has the skills to be an elite reliever – if he’s healthy.

* K-Rod (18) is a disaster off the field. On it, there are concerns about whether or not the Mets will limit his work late in the year since he has a clause in his contract that will give him $17.5 million in 2012 if he finishes 55 games this season.

* Leo Nunez (19) has all kinds of questions surrounding him after a late season collapse last year. Still, the guy got more than a K per inning last season and had a GB/FB ratio of 1.79. If he repeats those numbers, success will follow.

* Francisco Cordero (22) has Aroldis Chapman (34) to worry about, but I would be more concerned about the fact that his K/9 rate has fallen off a cliff. Look at his marks the past four years: 12.22, 9.98, 7.83 and 7.31.

* Young arms with strong skill sets can be found in the 20′s highlighted by Craig Kimbrel (23) and Jake McGee (26). Can Kimbrel throw enough strikes to hold off Jonny Venters (36) in Atlanta? Will McGee open the year as the Rays’ closer? I don’t know as the club might go with Kyle Farnsworth (48), but I expect McGee to have the better year.

* Good luck finding betters arms than hurlers 31-34: Hong-Chih Kuo, Ryan Madson, Luke Gregerson and Aroldis Chapman.

* Don’t forget about Mike Adams (42) in San Diego. I’m not certain that if something happened to Heath Bell that it wouldn’t be he, and not Gregerson, who would pitch the 9th inning.

* If the Rangers do the unexpected and ask Neftali Feliz (7) to fill a starting role, Alexi Ogando (49) could get a long look as the 9th inning arm since the club sent Frank Francisco (25) to the Blue Jays this offseason.

CATEGORY TARGETS

I’m a man of my word. On The Drive yesterday on SirusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (5-8 PM EST, Sirius211, XM147), we received a call from Jeff in North Carolina. He asked me what “targets” he should look to attain when building a team in a 12-team league (i.e. how many homers he would need to hit to win a 12-team league). As I said on the air I would get him an answer, and here it is in the form of a link to an article written by fantasy baseball expert Shawn Childs. Enjoy.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 30, 2010

(1) Aroldis Chapman to be called up on Tuesday.

(2) Manny Ramirez officially a White Sox player.

(3) Colby Rasmus (calf) back in the lineup.

(4) Nelson Cruz (hamstring) back from DL.

(5) Freddy Sanchez super hot at dish.

(6) Jose Tabata impressing with Pirates.

(7) Carlos Lee finally hitting his stride.

(8) Daniel Hudson a star for D’backs.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June2, 2010

(1) Aroldis Chapman likely to remain a starter.

(2) Jorge Posada returns early from broken foot – will DH.

(3) Josh Beckett suffers setback – likely out two more weeks.

(4) Jose Contreras losing game on Wednesday – Brad Lidge closing in.

(5) Cristian Guzman is second in the NL in batting average.

(6) Jason Bartlett could be headed to DL with hammy issue – good news for Reid Brignac.

(7) Mike Gonzalez continues to improve.

By Ray Flowers

Finding Sanity in the Madness

It’s been a long week. I’ve been busy as hell with work trying to get all my ducks in a row so I can head off to Las Vegas next week for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, and I seem to have pulled a muscle in my chest while I was maxing out my bench press (I think I had two 10 lbs plates on both sides). I know, it’s a tough life I lead isn’t it? If the biggest worries I have are about whether or not I can do 10 reps or 12 on the bench, or whether or not I can finish that massive margarita from Paris Las Vegas (that thing is like two feet tall in the shape of the Eiffel Tower), then life isn’t all bad. I know that drink doesn’t sound too masculine by the way, but who wouldn’t want to get bombed on $20 – am I right?

Some sports related thoughts after that random opening stanza.

* So much for Lance Berkman’s knee being OK. Turns out he will need minor knee surgery which could keep him out of action for 2-4 weeks, though Berkman still insists he can make opening day. “I don’t anticipate having any lingering effects from it. They said it’s about a three-to-four-week recovery period, so I’m hoping it’s closer to three weeks and I will be ready for Opening Day.” By the way, one of my expert league teams that was drafted last week has Berkman, Brian Roberts and Russell Martin – all injured – on it. Gotta love those early preseason drafts don’t you?

** I have nothing to say about Jesse Carlson. I just loved the picture so much that I had to find a way to bring up his name. What is that, My Little Pony?

* The hype machine continues to motor along in overdrive with Aroldis Chapman, the Cuban fireballer of the Reds. He struck out two in two scoreless innings again the Dodgers on Friday, and his fastball was once again recorded at 100 mph. As they say you can’t teach heat, and with each solid outing the temptation grows for the club to open the year with him on the roster. I think it would make sense for him to start in the minors if for no other reason than to allow him time to acclimatize himself to the American way of life, but here is a very important comparison that I haven’t seen listed anywhere – Chapman is actually 19 days older than the Dodgers’ Clayton Kershaw.

* Bobby Jenks gave up five runs while recording two outs on Friday running his spring performance to seven runs in 1.2 innings. He’s lost weight and changed his outlook to improve his life, but let’s hope he didn’t leave his focus somewhere in the offseason.

* The Mets are a disaster. Contradictory news on the health of Carlos Beltran in the offseason followed up by the latest setback with Jose Reyes are but two of the biggest issues the club is dealing with. I’m no doctor and I know they often rule things out 1-by-1 cause they themselves don’t really know what’s going on sometimes, but the club from New York certainly seems to be having an inordinate number of issues with the diagnosis of injuries and the dissemination of the results.

* Mike Napoli hit his fourth homer on Friday. The guy can rake. Problem is his defense is only so-so which has limited his ability to be in the lineup every day (Jeff Mathis has the exact opposite issue, he can field but he ain’t so good with a bat in his hands). It’s probably sheer folly, but if Napoli were to garner 400 at-bats this season, while maintaining his career levels, he would produce a season of about .256-24-66. You know how many catchers reached all three of those levels last season? The answer is one – Joe Mauer.

Here are links to some of the recent stories that I have penned for those of you who need a little something to read over the weekend.

Breaking Down: Jhonny Peralta.

Breaking Down: Cody Ross.

Breaking Down: Alfonso Soriano.

Is there anything to the belief that 27 year old players blow up merely because of their age? I give my thoughts in two pieces.

27-Year-Olds: Hitters.
27-Year-Olds: Pitchers.

These two articles give my thoughts on why you should pass on some of the guys being taken early in draft since you can likely find similar production much later on.

Taking Sides: First Base.

Taking Sides: Second Base.

By Ray Flowers

MLB Signings: Jan.21, 2010

In this edition of Around the Horn (ATH) I’ll discuss the signings of Joel Pineiro (Angels), Doug Davis (Brewers), Octavio Dotel (Pirates), Joe Blanton (Phillies), Vincente Padilla (Dodgers), Jonathan Broxton (Dodgers) as well as situations with Aroldis Chapman and Geovany Soto.

By Ray Flowers