2013 FSTA LEAGUE

In 2011 I was the FSTA Champion even though I selected Carl Crawford in the first round (he appeared in just 130 games hitting .255 with 65 runs and 18 steals in his worst season of more than 100 games played.). In 2012 I had another first round selection fail to live up to expectations as Evan Longoria had an injury filled campaign. This time I finished in 11th out of 13 teams. Embarrassing. I’m back for blood in 2013. Here’s how the just completed draft went down in Las Vegas (I love vodka and Red Bull by the way… just thought I would share that).

13 teams, Mixed League, 5×5
14 hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Nine pitchers (any combination of SPs and Rps)
Six bench spots

Here’s the team I selected out of the #6 hole (you can see the results of the entire draft at the RT Sports Link). The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted.

C: Joe Mauer (5), Russell Martin (21)
1B: Adam LaRoche (12)
2B: Howie Kendrick (10)
3B: Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2)
MI/CI: Asdrubal Cabrera (7), Kevin Youkilis (14)
OF: Andrew McCutchen (1), B.J. Upton (3), Jay Bruce (4), Coco Crisp (18), Denard Span (19)
UT: Mark Reynolds (20)

SP: James Shields (8), Max Scherzer (9), Tim Lincecum (11), Tim Hudson (16), Wandy Rodriguez (22), Shaun Marcum (23), Edinson Volquez (25), Erasmo Ramirez (28)
RP: J.J. Putz (13), Joel Hanrahan (15), Jason Grilli (17), Sean Marshall (29)

BENCH: Chris Young (24), Jemile Weeks (26), Justin Maxwell (27)

So how did this team turn out? Let me explain how things evolved.

I almost took Joey Votto in round one, but instead went for the more well-rounded game of McCutchen.

In the second I nearly took Jose Reyes. Ultimately I went for HanRam who has more power and qualifies at two spots (SS, 3B). I worry a bit about Reyes playing on Astro Turf, the fact that he is been hurt a fair amount, and that he doesn’t steal bases like he once did.

Round three I grabbed B.J. Upton – who now gets to play with his brother Justin Upton in Atlanta. After three rounds I felt like I had three guys who could all go 20/20. I like that.

In Round four I took the power bat of Bruce, who in my eyes isn’t much different than Ginacarlo Stanton who was taken in the first round. Bruce was another strong pick, but his selection caused a problem. Ramirez/Upton/Bruce could get 1,500+ at-bats with a batting average of .260. That’s not a strong start in that category. So, in order to address that situation my next two picks were guys who should be strong batting average plays – Mauer and Prado. I don’t normally take a catcher this early, but Mauer is pretty much a lock for a .300 average. I just hope he plays 140 games. Prado, who was just dealt to Arizona (which could help his offensive game out a wee bit), is another guy with a batting average floor of about .285. He makes contact, steals a few bags, and should score a ton of runs hitting near the top of the D’backs batting order. He also qualifies at third base and the outfield as well which doesn’t hurt.

Noticing that the middle infield was getting really thin, I took Cabrera for my MI spot. I’d be happy with a slight improvement on last year’s numbers (.270-16-68-70-9). Even a repeat would be alright. Jemile Weeks is a forgotten man but just 12 months ago people thought we could be looking at a .280 hitting, 30 steal guy at second base.

Youkilis and Reynolds are my corner infield options. Neither is great, but I should be able to cobble together something solid there. LaRoche at first base is boring but he did hit 33 homers with 100 RBIs last year. I’d rather have him in the 12th round than Ryan Howard in the 5th.

My outfield has an impressive top-3 (McCutchen, Upton, Bruce). Crisp has a great fro, and he’s stolen at least 32 bases each of the last three years. Span has a .285, 95 run season in him in Washington. I’m telling ya. For support I rostered Young and Maxwell, both of whom have huge holes in their games. Still, both have the talent to make a run at a 20/20 season. I only need one to hit.

I did my normal waiting thing on starters, and I like how it turned out. Shields and Scherzer can win 30 games with 400 plus Ks. You don’t think so? Lincecum could win 15 games and strike out 200 too, even if you don’t think he can. As I noted at the draft table, I think Lincecum in the 11th has every chance of matching Yovani Gallardo who was taken in the 9th. Hudson/Wandy/Marcum might all be the same hurler, but as 4-6 starters I like a trio that is going to be solid in the ratio categories (3.50 ERA, 1.25ish WHIP). Volquez has a huge arm (see his Player Profile). No one seems to think much of my Erasmo pick. Hey, the guy pitches for the Mariners, had a 1.00 WHIP an a 4.00 K/BB ratio over 59 innings last season. I’ll take a shot on that.

In the bullpen – huge arms abound. Putz and Hanrahan, if healthy, should give me 70 saves. Those that think Putz is at the end of his rope aren’t looking at the numbers (or the contract extension he was given by the Diamondbacks). Grilli has never been a closer, but he struck out 13.8 batters per nine innings last season and had a 4.09 K/BB ratio. I like that and so should you. Marshall is the best left handed setup man in the NL. If Aroldis Chapman starts as planned, guess who is the #2 option in Cincy for 9th inning work? It’s Marshall who would only be behind Jonathan Broxton, you know the guy who struck out 6.98 batters per nine innings last season, only four batters below his career mark of 10.96. Broxton is also a year removed from a 6.39 BB/9 mark. Sure it was 12.2 innings, but that should make you nervous if you plan on counting on Mr. Broxton.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Shortstop

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

2012 SHORTSTOP Top-10

1 Troy Tulowitzki
2 Jose Reyes
3 Hanley Ramirez
4 Elvis Andrus
5 Starlin Castro
6 Jimmy Rollins
7 Derek Jeter
8 Alexei Ramirez
9 Asdrubal Cabrera
10 Yunel Escobar

Tulowitzki appeared in 47 games, his first season of less than 101 in six years. Over the previous five seasons he average 134 games a campaign, meaning he has averaged missing a month a season before 2012. The production is amazing, but the risk simply too high to overlook.

Reyes came on in the second half and as a result his first season in Miami was right where it should have been as he posted a fantasy line of .287-11-57-86-40. Note the last time he stole 50 bases was 2008.

Ramirez hit 24 homers with 92 RBIs, 79 runs scored and 21 runs. Given that he also qualified at third base he was a strong play in 2012. Still, what happened to the perennial .300 hitter? Over his last 942 at-bats he has hit .252 with a poor .326 OBP (he batted .319 from 2007-10).

Andrus scored 85 runs for the third straight year while reaching career bests in doubles (31), triples (nine), RBIs (62), batting average (.286), OBP (.349) and SLG (.378). The only downer was a four year low of 21 steals, this after 3-straight seasons of at least 32 thefts.

Castro is just 22 years old, and he’s has been an impressive performer in his young career hitting .297. He’s also stolen 22 and 25 bases the past two years while scoring an average of 85 runs the past two campaigns. He also saw his homers (14) and RBIs (78) reach career bests in his third season. The guy’s attitude still makes me all kind of nervous though.

Rollins went 20/20 this year… from June 1st to the end of the season. That might be the most amazing number you will read in any of the position reviews. On the season he had 23 homers, 30 steals, 102 runs scored and 68 RBIs in yet another “Rollins-like” effort.

Jeter was just about used up according to most. At least I didn’t think that. Jeter went out and had 216 hits, the most in baseball, as he scored 99 times, hit 15 homers and knocked in 58 runners. He stole only nine bases, his first season of single digits ever, but he was once again an elite at the position.

Ramirez is as steady as pretty much any player in the game. He’s not elite at anything unfortunately, but always productive. He stole a career best 20 bases while driving in 73 runners, the second best mark of his career. However, he also hit only .265 with nine homers and 59 runs scored. At least he didn’t kill you.

From Cabrera’s Player Profile before the season. “Cabrera will steal double-digit bags, and his batting average will surpass the big league average… but in my opinion it would be foolish to bank on Cabrera matching his homer, RBI or SLG marks in 2012.” Cabrera hit .270, just three points off 2011, and he fell one bag short of my prediction with nine thefts. However, his HR total fell from 25 to 16, his RBI total from 92 to 68 and his SLG mark from .460 to .423.

Escobar hit .288-10-60-71 in 2008. In 2009 he went .299-14-76-89. In 2010 he dipped to .256-4-35-60. In 2011 he rebounded and hit .290-11-48-77. What did he do in 2012? Totally unexpected he reverted to his 2010 form with an awful season (.253-9-51-58).

Hit: Derek Jeter

Miss: Yunel Escobar, Ian Desmond (#16)
I knew Diamond could be something, but I had no idea he would be an absolute monster as one of the elites at the position (.292-25-73-72-21).

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 6: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Ryan Dempster (+14, $357K in DailyJoust salary)
Working around an injury, Dempster has taken the hill five times this year with spectacular results: 1.02 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and never allowing more than two runs in a start. He’s also posted a 3.60 K/BB ratio while striking out 36 batters in 35.1 innings. You really can’t pitch much better than he has to this point. The only negative is the anemic offensive support that he has received as he’s failed to win a game, again, despite only allowing more than one run one time (he allowed two runs to the Brewers). Shame on you Cubs.

Christian Friedrich (+77, $228K)
Was recalled to take the spot of Guillermo Moscoso in the Rockies rotation and he had a solid first start allowing two runs, only one earned, over six innings against the Padres. However, the start was against the Padres, and it was at Petco, so that makes profiling the effort difficult. This left hander has had a rough couple of years after once being regarded as one of the better lefty pitching prospects in the game. Last season he went 6-10 with a 5.00 ERA at Double-A, so it would be wise to be very wary of him turning into Lance Lynn anytime soon.

Jimmy Rollins (+11, $72K)
No player on the Phils has struggled worse than Rollins with Howard-Utley out of the mix. Hitting just .230 with one homer the only thing keeping Rollins afloat is his seven steals. For a guy with a putrid .275 OBP his 17 runs scored in 35 games isn’t bad, and it’s not like he’s going to be losing any playing time, but this has still been a painfully slow start to the year. Just a season removed from 16 homers, 30 steals and 87 runs scored, did Rollins get “old” overnight? I’m betting he didn’t.

Yovani Gallardo (+48, $243K)
After that shellacking at the hands of the Cardinals (8 ER in 2.0 IP) Gallardo, as he always does, rebounded in his last two outings to allow a total of five runs while striking out 12 batters in 12 innings. In one of the odder starts to a season of any arm out there, if you remove his two starts against the Cardinals – 14 ERA in 5.2 innings – here are his numbers from his other five starts: 2.45 ERA an a 1.15 WHIP. Just don’t pitch him when he faces the Cards and you would appear to be fine.

Jake Westbrook (+52, $323K)
We’ve seen plenty of pitchers have their career revived while pitching in St. Louis, so maybe Westbrook is the next arm in that line to do so. His 1.76 ERA and 1.07 WHIP through six starts are special, especially for a guy with carer marks of 4.27 and 1.39. Only once in six starts has he failed to produce a quality start, and he wasn’t awful in that outing allowing four runs. Through 41 innings he has a solid 2.70 K/BB ratio, but it’s one full batter above his career rate, while his 5.93 K/9 mark is also a batter above his carer norm. Pitchers don’t usually post career bests in those numbers in their 12th big league season. Solid but unspectacular, he has nowhere to go but down from here.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Homer Bailey (-47, $162)
Blessed with a big arm, Bailey simply cannot form any type of consistency. A run of 4-straight quality starts was broken up by a stinker against the Brewers as he allowed six runs in 3.2 innings. He’s also been taken deep six times in six starts helping to explain his 4.93 ERA. His current K/BB rate of 1.85 points to just how middling a performer he continues to be (over at Fleaflicker he is only owned in seven percent of leagues). It certainly doesn’t seem like his rotation spot is in serious jeopardy, but at some point the Reds are going to need to see some improvement, or at least some consistency.

Asdrubal Cabrera (-19, $96K)
Hitting .315 on the season would be a tremendous accomplishment for a guy who owns a .283 career mark. However, Cabrera was hitting .356 literally a week ago so he’s clearly slumped a wee bit. Asdrubal one one RBI in his last seven games, and he has just three homers and two steals on the season. Where is the guy that went 25/17 last year? He’s just where I said he would be in his Player Profile – he’s gone.

Ross Detwiler (-52, $247K)
Ross has made six starts, has failed to allow more than three runs in an outing, owns a 2.10 ERA an a 1.02 WHIP through 34.1 innings. It’s impossible to find any fault with his efforts so far this year. As I’ve said before he doesn’t have the underlying skills to support this hot start, but he is generating a ground ball rate of 54 percent with 6.55 K’s per nine, so maybe the landing will be a soft one even when the regression comes. So maybe he isn’t going to win the Cy Young award this season but he’s still had a wonderful start to the season.

Dan Haren (-80, $227K)
If his current owner is panicking after he allowed five runs in 3.2 innings in his last start, or because he has a 4.19 ERA and 1.33 WHIP, now is the time to pounce. Haren is sporting a 7.33 K/9 mark, slightly better than last season, and he’s currently walking a mere 1.88 batters per nine innings (career 1.89). He’s also been saddled with a .323 BABIP which might continue, but at the same time he’s never had a mark above .311 for a season and owns a career mark of .290. I’m also pretty confident he won’t end the year with a 22.9 percent line drive rate which would be a career worst. Given time to normalize Haren should do just that.

Ian Kennedy (-36, $229K)
He was never going to match last season, so put that out of your head (see his Player Profile). Still, prior to giving up six runs in his last outing, Kennedy had a 3.23 ERA through six starts showing that’s he’s still darn likely to be a successful arm. Through seven outings Kennedy owns an impressive 3.36 K/BB ratio and his GB/FB, HR/F and line drive rates are all pretty darn similar to last season, so just pass on from the bad outing the last time he took the hill and realize this is still one fine fantasy option.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Opening Day

Finally.

I know that the games officially started last week with the epic battles staged by the Mariners and Athletics in Japan, but I’m calling today the official start of the major league season when the Cardinals take on the Marlins.

With the attrition rate of closers at this point of the preseason, will any hurler reach 40 saves this season? Hell, will any reach 30? Of course they will, but the tumultuous start for many a team in the bullpen, and remember we’ve only had a couple of major league games played to this point, is yet another indication of why you shouldn’t reach on closers on draft day. One other note in case you missed it – Alfredo Aceves will get the first shot to close for the Red Sox. No idea though if he will lead this team in saves though he is a decently skilled hurler who could thrive in the role, you never know (I’m still a fan of Mark Melancon who I think possesses better skills). Heck, I can’t stop. Here’s another note on bullpens. Looks like the White Sox still aren’t certain who they will call on in the 9th inning, but support is growing for Hector Santiago being that guy. Why? Beats me. Perhaps it’s because he has thrown all of 5.1 innings above Double-A in his life. For my thoughts on their bullpen situation see Lunacy in Chicago?

Michael Pineda says that his shoulder is feeling better. Whoppie. He’s still going to start the year on the DL, and he’s still likely to miss all of April – and that is if he doesn’t have another setback. Good luck with that.

It wouldn’t be an opening day without Grady Sizemore on the DL. He was placed on the 60 DL since he has no shot at being back on the field in April after undergoing a micro discectomy procedure on his back on March 1st. Boy that sounds bad doesn’t it?

Did the Indians overpay for Asdrubal Cabrera when they gave him an additional two years for a total of $16.5 million? He won’t repeat his 25 homer outing of last season and he hit .273 which was below his career average of .281. For further thoughts on why the Indians may have slightly overpaid see Cabrera’s Player Profile.

I don’t care if Katy Perry has blue hair. I still love her.

As of this writing the Giants still haven’t officially told Brandon Belt that he has made the club. It does appear though that he will open the year with the club, and that he could play first base with Aubrey Huff moving to the outfield.  “He’s been getting most of the playing time there,’’ manager Bruce Bochy said. “We’ve said we’d put the bats out there that are swinging well.” Belt has hit .389 in spring games while Huff has also produced hitting .306.

Anyone else get the feeling that Nelson Cruz isn’t going to make it through the year unscathed, or even close to it? He’s already dealt with a hand issue that kept him out of action, and now he’s being slowed by an elbow issue after taking a pitch of his left one. X-rays confirm that there is no break, and he is still expected to be ready for opening day. Is it possible that he’s getting all his injuries knocked out before the season starts? Doubtful.

Looks like Ross Detwiler will open the year as the Nationals fifth starter as the club has decided to send John Lannan to the minors in a surprising move. “I look at it this way, Detwiler earned the job,” general manager Mike Rizzo said. “He deserved the job. It was a prudent baseball move for the current Nationals and the future Nationals.” As exciting as the news is for Detwiler and his NL-only prospects, don’t forget that Chien-Ming Wang isn’t expected to miss much more than four weeks and at that time Detwiler will likely end up returning to the bullpen. If you’re an owner of Lannan in a mixed league, it’s time to move on.

All the prep work, all the late nights of telling your significant other that you didn’t have time for them because you had to break down middle infielder’s BABIP are over. Now it’s time for all your hard work the entire offseason to start to payoff. Enjoy it for a day or two. After that, get back at it because the baseball season is perfect for those of you out there who are willing to work at the daily grind. So sit back, relax, and enjoy the 2012 season.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Cliff Pennington

Often times we find ourselves spending all our time talking and thinking about the elite players. People always want to know who to take in the first round or when they should grab their ace on draft day.  At the same time, people rarely talk about those glue guys that often make the difference between winning and losing. Think back to the draft table in 2011. How many people cared when they called out the names of Asdrubal Cabrera, Alex Gordon and Jhonny Peralta? Yet when all was said and done all three had impressive seasons that helped many a squad to a championship. Today I’ll highlight one of those players who you might want to think about late in drafts (especially in mixed leagues that use the corner and middle infield positions).

Cliff Pennington, for those of you who don’t know, plays shortstop for the Athletics, you know, that green and yellow team on the west coast that seemingly trades away it’s best players year after year. A decent little ballplayer, Pennington has a couple of things going for him. First, no one really cares about him. That means he will be extremely cheap to add to your squad on draft day. He’ll also likely make a solid addition if your starter at shortstop comes down with an injury early in the year forcing you to hit the waiver-wire looking for a warm body. Second, Pennington steals bases. He’s not going to push Jose Reyes for the positional lead in steals but he’s swiped 43 bases the last two years, a total only five other shortstops can better (Reyes 69, Elvis Andrus 69, Erick Aybar 52, Hanley Ramirez 52 and Jimmy Rollins 47). In an AL-only league, or a 15 team mixed league, 20+ steals from a middle infielder is a decent addition to any club.

Now I’m not going to sit here and blow soft kisses to you to hide the fact that Pennington isn’t exactly an offensive powerhouse. The owner of 18 career homers, Pennington has nonetheless knocked in an average of 51 runs the past two seasons while scoring an average of 61 runs a campaign. Those numbers are all blah, I agree, but when combined they’re really not that bad a set. Guess how many shortstops, the past two years, have scored 120 runs, knocked in 100 and stolen 40 bases? Rather shockingly the answer is just four: Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Ian Desmond and Pennington.

While consistent playing time helps with the counting numbers (Pennington has appeared in an average of 152 games the past two years), it will also allow his less than impressive batting average to drag your club down. A .259 career hitter, Cliff has hit .250 and .264 the last two years. There is some hope for a potential run at .280. After all, Pennington does own an impressive 22.1 percent line drive rate. One would expect a pretty high BABIP given that impressive LD-rate, but instead Pennington owns a .310 career mark that is only .010 points above a league average number. As we all should know by now, players set their own benchmarks in this respect, so while it seems like Pennington should post a higher BABIP maybe he won’t though his .342 mark from 2009 does give some hope. Toss in a 0.47 BB/K mark for his career though and the prospects of any substantial batting growth should be concerned a bit of a long-shot.

Pennington is not going to pull an Asdrubal Cabrera in 2012. He’s not going to morph into a difference maker, but if he shows only some slight improvement, let’s say to the .270-10-60-70-20 range, he could be an extremely useful up the middle depth play in deep mixed leagues. Don’t reach on Pennington at any point in your draft, but when you’re sitting there in the 25th round wondering whose name you should call out consider the shortstop of the Oakland Athletics.

By Ray Flowers

A Look Back at 2011 – Batting

Yesterday I tackled the 2011 performance of pitchers, an if you know me you know that I’m all about symmetry. Today, I’ll break down some of the numbers that stood out for me when I looked at the hitters for 2011. Special thanks to the 2012 Bill James Handbook where a fair amount of the information you are about to read about comes from (I would highly recommend the book for those of you looking for a nice reference tool).

For my review of some of the fascinating pitching numbers see A Look Back at 2011 – Pitching.

Asdrubal Cabrera hit .636 with 13 RBI last year in 11 at-bats with the bases loaded.

Miguel Cabrera led baseball with a 1.047 OPS against right handed pitching. That mark was .001 better than two other first basemen – Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder.

If you were an NL pitcher in 2011 and you were looking to get strike one under your belt then you wanted to see Jamey Carroll come to the dish. Carroll swung at only 6.9 percent of first pitches. The only other NL batter in single digits was Martin Prado (9.8). As for those that did let her rip on the first pitch three names topped 40 percent: Yadier Molina (40.7), Aramis Ramirez (40.6) and Freddie Freeman (40.1).

If you were a curveball specialist you didn’t want to see the Diamondbacks on your schedule as Chris Young and Justin Upton were 1-2 in the NL in OPS against the curveball (1.149 and 1.148). If you relied on the slider, you certainly didn’t want to see the Reds or the Phillies in the other dugout as the Phillies had three guys in the top-5 in the NL in OPS (Shane Victorino 1.111, John Mayberry 1.060 and Jimmy Rollins 1.060) while the Reds had three in the top nine (Ryan Hanigan 1.036, Jay Bruce 1.036 and Chris Heisey 1.014).

Jacoby Ellsbury led the American League, and baseball, with 364 total bases. Teammate Adrian Gonzalez was second in the AL with 345 while Matt Kemp led the NL at 353.

Prince Fielder hit the longest home run in the NL at 486 feet. That’s hardly a surprise. However, the only other NL player with a homer over 480 feet was Juan Francisco of the Reds who hit on 482 feet on September 12th. No AL batter put one into the seats at a distance of at least 480 feet.

Derek Jeter failed to hit .300 as he finished at .297 for the Yankees. Blame his work against righties (.277) as he killed lefties to the tune of a .347 mark. For his career he’s hit .336 against lefties and .305 against the righties.

Matt Kemp loved seeing a lefty on the hill in 2011. His OPS of 1.142 was the best in the National League against southpaws. That mark was just behind the 1.156 OPS  of Jose Bautista against port siders, the AL leading total.

Victor Martinez led baseball with a .394 batting average with runners in scoring position. He also posted a .990 OPS in those 155 at-bats. He didn’t slump much either when the situation was a runner in scoring position with two outs. In that scenario he hit .375 with a .930 OPS (72 at-bats).

Dustin Pedroia saw 3,077 pitches, the most in baseball. Only one other batter was over 2,900 and that was Curtis Granderson at 3,069.

There was only one leadoff hitter in baseball, who had a minimum of 150 plate appearances in that spot, who posted an on base percentage of .400. It was Brandon Phillips of the Reds at .417. Surprisingly the AL leader wasn’t Jacoby Ellsbury who was second at .381. The fella in the Junior Circuit with the best mark was the Royals… Alex Gordon at .383.

There wasn’t a single batter in the NL who was under the age of 26 that posted an OPS of .900. The leader was Justin Upton at .898 followed closely by Mike Stanton (.893) and Carlos Gonzalez (.889).

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Asdrubal Cabrera

Asdrubal Cabrera was about as good as it gets in 2011. Cabrera was so good in fact that it can be argued, persuasively, that he was the best American League fantasy shortstop in the just completed season. Is there any chance in hell he will be able to repeat his bust out campaign in 2012?

In 2011, Cabrera hit 25 homers. Only two other shortstops had more (Troy Tulowitzki and J.J. Hardy had 30).

In 2011 Cabrera posted a .460 SLG. Only one other shortstop who qualified for the batting title bettered that – Jose Reyes (.493).

In 2011 Cabrera had 92 RBI. Only Tulowitzki had more with 105.

In 2011 Cabrera scored 87 runs. Only three shortstops had more: Jose Reyes (101), Elvis Andrus (96) and Starlin Castro (91).

In 2011 Cabrera stole 17 bases. Thirteen shortstop eligible players stole more bags, but no other shortstop who stole that many bases also hit 20 homers.

I wasn’t kidding when I said he was the best fantasy shortstop in the American League. So what’s the problem with building your team around Cabrera in 2012? Here we go.

(1) Cabrera hit .273, eight points below his career mark of .281. This doesn’t look so bad until you realize the drastic swing his performance took last season. Cabrera hit .330 in May, and then it was all downhill from there. Here are his monthly totals thereafter: .297, .266, .239 and .234. That translates to a .293 mark before the All-Star game and then .244 after the break.

(2) Cabrera hit 18 home runs from 2007-2010. That isn’t a misprint. He hit 18 homers in 1,415 at-bats before he went Kirby Puckett on everyone (I should also point out that he hit just 27 homers in 1,655 at-bats during his minor league days). How in the world was he able to blast 25 homers in just 604 at-bats last year?

(A) Cabrera had posted a GB-rate of 48.0 and 51.7 percent in 2009 and 2010. In 2011 that number tanked down to 43.8 percent. Conversely, his fly ball rate, under 31.5 percent in 2009-10, went up to 38.7 percent in 2011. Hitters don’t normally completely flip flop their performance like that in one year.

(B) In addition to all the extra fly balls, Cabrera also managed to jack up his HR/F ratio, and when I say ‘jack up’ I’m not kidding. Here are the HR/F rates of Cabrera in his first four seasons: 6.3, 6.7, 4.7 and 3.0 percent. In 2011 that mark was 13.3 percent. Cabrera doubled his previous career best folks. Established hitters don’t normally sustain jumps like.

Could A and B repeat themselves in 2012? It’s certainly possible. But I’ll tell you the same thing I said about Joe Mauer in 2009 when he hit 28 homers and I predicted that he would regress (he fell to nine homers by the way with his follow up effort) – players just don’t double their HR/F ratios from one season to the next when they’ve already established a baseline.

(C) Because of all the extra fly balls, Cabrera’s GB/FB ratio did a total flip flop in 2011 as well. In 2009-10 his mark was 1.60 and 1.65. In 2011 that mark fell all the way to 1.13. Again, players simply don’t sustain drastic changes like that very often.

Cabrera will steal double-digit bags, and his batting average will surpass the big league average. However, you can say that about an awful lot of middle infielders. The real key for Cabrera will be whether or not he will be able to sustain the massive power spike he flashed in 2011. It’s possible that he will remain at that level, there are no certainties in this life, but in my opinion it would be foolish to bank on Cabrera matching his homer, RBI or SLG marks in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Recent Disappointments

Over the course of the season, every player rides the wave of highs and lows. Today, I’ll high-light some of those players who are barely keeping their heads above the rising tide right now.

Marlon Byrd is batting .226 over his last 93 at-bats with just a single homer as he continues to have one of the most unique seasons in baseball this year. The recent slump has dropped Byrd’s average down down to a still respectable .284, but it’s his run production that is so fascinating. Byrd has a mere 28 RBI in 387 at-bats this season, a pace that would equate to 40 RBI over 550 at-bats. If that sounds awful it is, but it’s even more distressing when you realize that Byrd has spent 30 percent of his season batting third for the Cubs and another 34 percent batting fifth. How is it possible to spend 64 percent of your seasonal at-bats in the third and fifth holes in the lineup and still be on a pace for mere 40 RBI in 550 at-bats? That’s just shocking.

Asdrubal Cabrera has had a remarkable season. It doesn’t look like he is going to get to 20/20, he has 16 steals and last stole a base back on August 13th (yikes), but still, it’s been a rather remarkable season. Coming into the year he had hit 18 homers. He has 22 this season. He came into the year with career bests of 68 RBI and 81 runs. He has 82 RBI and is just two runs off that career best mark with three weeks left in the regular season. If you’ve have Cabrera on your roster all season long you cannot be upset at his performance, not in the least. However, that doesn’t mean you can’t be disappointed by his work over the past month. Cabrera is hitting a sickly .185 over his last 95 at-bats, and though he has knocked in 16 runs, the guy has scored only five times. He isn’t producing hits, isn’t scoring runs, and has stopped stealing bases. Do you dare go in another direction for the final three weeks of the regular season?

Chris Davis has long been my white whale. I look at the prodigious power and his outright domination of Triple-A (.340-38-146 over his last 591 at-bats), not to mention his previous success in the big leagues (38 homers, 114 RBI in his first 686 big league at-bats), and think this guy is a potential 30 homer bat. He still might be that, but he’s looking an awful lot like Carlos Pena with those 21 Ks in 50 at-bats with the Orioles. I think it might be time for me to face facts. Davis might just be a AAAA player (too good for the minors but not good enough to have success in the big leagues).

Adam Lind will be shut down for a few days with a wrist issue. He should have been left out of your fantasy lineup for a long while however. Over the last month Lind has hit five homers while knocking in 18 runs so you might be thinking ‘what the hell are you talking about Ray?’ You wanna know what I’m talking about? How about that .178 average and .575 OPS over the past month. In fact, it’s even worse than that as he has hit .186 with a .562 OPS over his last 46 games. That’s a high price to pay for a few homers.

Martin Prado just cannot get it going. He’s hitting, if you can call it that, .181 with no homers and six runs scored over his last 94 at-bats.

Pablo Sandoval is hitting a mere .247 over his last 81 at-bats to drop his season long average to .297. That’s pretty impressive given his failures last season (.268), and 18 homers in just 371 at-bats is a pretty solid number as well, but he needs to start rapping out hits to help out your fantasy squad down the stretch. OK, the truth is I’m just down on the Giants and not necessarily Sandoval. Where did it all go wrong for the club? It all went wrong when the front office thought the club had enough offense to compete. What a waste of a pitching staff.

Chris Young is hitting, sit down if you missed it, .147 over 156 at-bats since the All-Star break. He has a sprained ligament in his thumb that is the main culprit for the downturn in his production. At this point it’s almost impossible to suggest leaving him in your starting lineup unless you are in a deep NL-only league.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Diamond

photo © 2009 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

One guy is trying to make history while a former all-star is just trying to stay in the lineup. Another all-star could be headed to the DL, someone can’t figure out how to manage his weight properly and there are some white hot players the last two weeks that deserve a mention.

Asdrubal Cabrera has been the second most valuable shortstop in the game behind only Jose Reyes. Cabrera is on pace to hit .302 with 32 homers, 113 RBI, 108 runs and 18 steals. There is only one shortstop in the history of the game to produce a season as good as that in all five categories, and that is Alex Rodriguez who did it twice. Obviously history doesn’t bode well for Cabrera being able to keep up this pace, nor does a review of his previous levels of production. Consider his homer and RBI totals each year of his career (all levels for each season).

2006: 4 homers, 36 RBI
2007: 11-79
2008: 10-60
2009: 6-68
2010: 4-32

I don’t have any idea how you go from that to 30-100, do you?

I saw X-Men First Class last night. A really good flick, even for those of you who don’t have an affinity for superhero movies. I also learned that January Jones ain’t a bad looking lady at all. Where have I been on that one?

In one of the more vexing cases this season, Jason Bay is hitting .207 with two homers over 164 plate appearances thanks to a recent run of 23 hitless at-bats. Bay has hit at least 21 homers with 84 RBI and 78 runs scored in each of his five big league seasons of at least 145 games played. Moreover, in four of those seasons he hit at least 30 homers with 100 RBI and 100 runs scored. At just 32 years old his struggles this year are befuddling to say the least. The guy has been flat out awful since joining the Mets hitting .244 with eight homers, 57 RBI and 68 runs scored in 134 games with the club.

Dustin Pedroia might need surgery on his right knee that could reportedly keep him out for four or more weeks. A career .299 hitter, Pedroia is struggling along at .247 and has looked little like the player we expect at the dish. Oddly though, he’s on pace for a career best steal total, he already has 13 (career best 20), despite the knee issue and the surgery he had on his foot last year.

Did you see the ridiculous story that Francisco Rodriguez lost 15 lbs over the last week after having two teeth removed? Even crazier than that is the ludicrous notion espoused by K-Rod that he was unaware that he lost the weight. Those two points lead me to two points. (1) Don’t they have milkshakes in New York? It’s completely asinine to suggest that K-Rod couldn’t keep his weight on cause he had teeth removed. You don’t have to eat steak to keep your weight up, especially when you have access to the elite in the medical profession to help to guide you in how  to keep the weight on. (2) How fat is K-Rod if he didn’t notice that he lost 15 lbs? If I gain or lose five pounds my clothes don’t fit.

Only two lefties are in the top-25 in terms of batting average against versus right-handed batters since the start of 2009. They both pitch in the NL. They both are in the NL West. They are Clayton Kershaw and Jonathan Sanchez. For those of you with a curious bent, Kershaw is 9th on the list while the Giants lefty is one spot ahead of him in 8th.

The last two weeks…

Michael Bourn has eight steals.

Nelson Cruz has blasted six dingers leading to 13 RBI and 11 runs.

Kelly Johnson has six homers, 11 RBI and 13 runs scored.

Andrew McCutchen is hitting .417 with 10 RBI, 12 runs and four steals.

Mitch Moreland is hitting .405 with three homers.

Daniel Murphy is hitting .467.

Miguel Olivo has 15 RBI, one more than the 14 of Carl Crawford.

David Ortiz is hitting .405 with five homers, 11 RBI and 12 runs.

Corey Patterson is hitting .356 with three homers/steals and 13 runs scored.

By Ray Flowers

Zobrist on Fire – Lowe an Idiot

photo © 2009 Matt McGee | more info (via: Wylio)

Ben Zobrist had a day for the ages on Thursday. In Game 1 of a doubleheader with the Twins, Zobrist pounded out four hits including a homer and eight RBI (that’s not a typo). He also tossed in two runs and a steal for good measure. In the second game he only had three hits and didn’t steal a bag, but he did hit a homer, drive in two runs and score three times. Twp games netted Zobrist two bombs, 10 RBI, five runs and a steal and all of a sudden he looks like a star. Moreover, Big Ben, and that’s his new name in these parts, has knocked in at least two runs in five straight games and now leads baseball with 25 RBI in 25 games. Wasn’t it just a week ago that many of you, and you know who you are, were sending me emails and tweets about dropping this guy? Remember what I said? Hopefully you listened and held on.

I pointed this out before, though I know that no one listened to me at the time (in fact, I remember specifically sneers and derision followed my comments). I mentioned this preseason that I had no idea why Rickie Weeks was being taken in drafts 80 picks ahead of Zobrist. I even went as far as to compare the two directly to one another and suggest that Zobrist would likely be the better value play. How could I make such a statement? Per 500 at-bats over the past three years (2008-2010) there was really no difference between the two.

Weeks: .256-20-60-90-13
Zobrist: .265-20-79-81-18

Again, at the time I was called a fool by many. Now you know me and my sample size argument that I always throw out there, so I’m not going to sit here and say “I was right’ after just a month of games. I will say though that my side of the argument looks pretty good right about now, doesn’t it?

Weeks: .309-6-10-21-2
Zobrist: .258-7-25-18-4

If you look at the shortstop position you will see that Asdrubal Cabrera leads all AL shortstops in runs batted in with 15 and that he is second in the league in runs scored at the position with 14. Somehow, that hot start has caused everyone to think that he is going to be a fantasy star this year. Folks, it ain’t gonna happen. Over his last 11 games he has one RBI and it’s been 14 games since he hit a homer. Let me break it down for you all in case you were wondering – Cabrera really isn’t anything more than an average option in mixed leagues despite the hot start. Per 500 at-bats in his career he’s produced a fantasy line of .283-7-60-70-9. While that’s certainly a passable line for a middle infielder, it’s not much different than what a guy like Jason Bartlett has produced over his career (.279-6-48-71-20). Don’t be swayed too heavily by the hot start.

Derek Lowe received a DUI last night. According to the police report he was not only intoxicated but he was also racing his 2011 Porsche Panamera – a really nondescript car to be speeding in. Tell me, do you drive home drunk? OK, maybe you drive home after you’ve had a few drinks, but aren’t you extra careful to do nothing to gain anyone’s attention? You make sure to stop, you probably drive on the backstreets, and you certainly don’t act like Jimmie Johnson racing down the street, do you? That misses the real point though. According to BaseballReference.com Derek Lowe has made more than $80 million dollars during his career. For goodness sakes Derek, hire a flipping driver. I’ve never understood why pro athletes, who can burn money in the fireplace for heat, don’t pay some guy $150,000 to drive them everywhere. Make the guy sign a non-disclosure agreement so he won’t talk about all the elicit things he sees and just be done with it. Morons. Maybe @Dwade had it right on Twitter when he wrote “… in Lowe’s defense, it’s really hard to convince the limo driver to drag race.”

By Ray Flowers