ADP Talk: What is It?

This is the time of year when everyone is firing off their top-whatever lists ranking players in fantasy baseball. Those lists certainly have value as they give you an idea of what the “experts” are thinking in terms of player value, but they are really only half the story. Just because I have Howie Kendrick as my 11th second baseman, doesn’t tell you two things. (1) It doesn’t tell you where he is being drafted (maybe everyone else has him 16th?). (2) It doesn’t tell you when he is being drafted? That’s where ADP comes into play.

What is ADP? Simply put, it means Average Draft Position. What is that? It’s just what it says – in a standard draft when, on average, is the player being drafted? This information is crucial. Let’s return to our example of Howie Kendrick.

Again, let’s postulate my rankings system has Kendrick at 11th amongst second basemen. Therefore, you would most likely want to draft Kendrick after the top-10 second sackers were out of the way right (duh)? Now I trust my own draft list so I would have a lot of confidence in it on draft day, but I would be foolish not to check out what others were thinking. The best way to do this is to look over ADP information from a source, something like Couch Managers for example. That site offers draft software which enables people to do as many mock drafts as time permits. After those drafts, the site then compiles all the data and presents its ADP data based up on all the drafts for a specific time frame. This way you can average out the Anaheim crazy who drafted Kendrick 5th at the position as well as those leagues that are scared away by his poor track record of health causing him to fall to 22nd. The resulting number would be his “average” draft position (how convenient given the title of this piece, no?) This is the real world information you need in order to know where he is being drafted at the position as well as where he is being drafted overall.

Let’s take a look at the actual data.

Currently, Kendrick has an ADP of 173 according to Couch Managers. This means that he is going 173rd overall in standard leagues. So, if you are trying to decide if you should take him with the 122nd pick overall, you’d likely be able to wait at least another round or two before being pressed into having to make a decision. If you think Kendrick can be the 122nd most valuable player you can certainly draft him at that spot, but the ADP information allows you to understand that you don’t need to draft him that early – that is if you buy into the law of averages and what others are doing.

Secondarily, ADP data obviously gives you an understanding of where amongst the hierarchy at the position a player is being selected. Again, if I have him at 11th yet his ADP value shows him to be going 18th at the position as he is according to Couch Managers, I may be able to wait a bit longer before pulling the trigger on the Angels’ second sacker.

Third, ADP data is also useful because it can help to solidify some tiering thoughts in your mind. As an example, at second base Dan Uggla has an ADP of 87, 11th at the position. The 12th man on the list, Asdrubal Cabrera, isn’t being drafted until 120th overall. That means the average fantasy drafter clearly sees a big gap in the perceived value of second basemen with 33 spots in the overall rankings separating #11 from #12. Useful information, right?

In future pieces I’ll break down some of those players that I think are going off the board too early, as well as some of those that might be great draft day bargains, but I wanted to make sure we were all on the same page when it came to ADP data before I moved into the nitty gritty of it.

And finally, in case you missed it, one of the greatest sports stories I have ever come across showed up today, and I would be remiss if I didn’t direct you towards it. It involves a wiener, a guys eye, and a mascot, and if you think that sounds oddly enticing do yourself a favor and click on the link to Living Up the Nickname. Trust me, you won’t regret spending a few minutes on this one.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries and Oddness

Today I’m feeling a bit sick, so I thought it would be appropriate to spend my column discussing guys who are currently on the DL or on the verge of coming off it. So, let’s get to it.

Just how bad is that injury to the knee of Carlos Beltran? Well it isn’t catastrophic and doesn’t appear like he will need surgery, but at the same time the team is bracing to be without their star for more than just 15 days. “I can also tell you that I’m not gonna tell you that he’s gonna be back within the 15 days,” GM Omar Minaya said. “I said to myself … if we get him back for the second half, after the All-Star Break, I’d sign up for that right now.” Wow. The Mets are only 1.5 games back of the Phillies, but if they are without Beltran for three weeks in addition to the other injuries they have suffered (Jose Reyes is likely out until after the All-Star break with his hamstring injury and Carlos Delgado is likely out until August because of his hip surgery), do they really have much of a shot at the playoffs?

I’ve written it before, but here is it again. Oliver Perez as a reliever makes zero sense. The guys takes forever to “find” himself and locate the strike zone, so I cannot see how bringing him into a game in the 7th inning makes any sense at all since he won’t have time to see what is working etc. Maybe I’m wrong, but if I’m the Mets I start him or leave him in the minors starting until he figures out whatever that ails him with his knee and or mechanics. Nothing else makes sense. Oh maybe one thing does – the Mets could trade him to the Giants for Jonathan Sanchez.

I don’t get something. OK, I don’t get a lot of things, but I really don’t get how the Indians appear to be handling the case of Grady Sizemore. First off, they let him play far too long with that injured elbow when he clearly wasn’t able to do the things we have been used to seeing from him the past four years since when he finally found his way to the DL he was hitting .223 with a .417 SLG, well below his established baselines of .275 and .486. Then they shut him down for roughly three weeks during which time he basically did nothing to allow the inflammation in his elbow to subside (that makes sense). Then, they had the bright idea of simply activating him without a single game in the minors. “I just want to get back on the field,” said Sizemore. Yeah, we all do Grady, but doesn’t it sound like a bad idea to do nothing for three weeks and then immediately return to major league action? Now we get the following trifecta right before game time on Tuesday night from manager Eric Wedge – Sizemore (a) will not be in the lineup every day, at least for the remainder of this week, (b) might spend some time at DH moving forward and (c) will return to hitting second in the order when Asdrubal Cabrera is ready to return from his shoulder injury, likely later this week. Don’t know about you, but seems like some oddness going on in Cleveland to me.

Joey Votto broke his silence and told the media that the reason that he missed time this season was that he was clinically depressed at the loss of his father last August. I wish you all the best Joey, no more jokes about your condition from this corner now that we know the details.

Does everyone know that Kyle Elfrink and I co-host the Fantasy Buffet Mon., Tues., Thurs. and Fri.? The podcast can be heard at Fanball.com each morning from 8-9 AM, PST. Oh yeah, it’s everyday during the week as Wednesday’s when I’m not there the Godfather of fantasy sports, Charlie Wiegert, steps in to take up my co-hosting chair. Each day we talk about everything sports related, obviously with a fantasy slant, as we break down the latest performances and injuries. Come give the show a listen – it’s not just Kyle and me every day, we also bring in a handful of our other correspondents to allow them to given their views on a myriad of topics. It’s good fun, and if I do say so myself, the show usually comes off without a hitch.

By Ray Flowers