Geezers in the Outfield: Damon, Ibanez, Matsui

Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez and Hideki Matsui have all been solid performers for years (each was a fantasy star at one point, even if you’ve forgotten because it was a while ago). Do any of the three enough residual skill to be of use in the fantasy game in 2012 as anything other than single league options (NL or AL Only)? That’s what we’re going to investigate.

Damon (.261-16-73-79-19) is one of the more stable performers in the history of the game. Really. Damon has appeared in 140 games in 16-straight years to tie Hank Aaron, Brooks Robinson and Pete Rose for the longest such run in big league history. He’s also had 11 seasons of at least 90 runs scored and 15 steals, the third most such seasons in history. Those aren’t phenomenal numbers, but they have long made him a draft day target after the bigger names were taken. However, Damon has seen his average dip the last three years (.303, .282, .271 and .261) as his bat speed slips, and last year was the first time since 1998 that he posted a BB/K rate under 0.70 (it was 0.55). His GB/FB ratio was pretty standard fair for him at 1.08 (career 1.25), and his line drive mark of 20.2 percent was right on his career rate of 20 percent, so it’s not like he’s totally lost it at the dish. Damon even upped his steals mark to 19 after totaling just 23 in 2009-10. Damon can still produce, an if given 500+ at-bats he still seems capable of replicating the fantasy line he posted last season (though I’d expect the steals to dip even if his bat remained on track).

Ibanez (.245-20-84-65) looked lost last April hitting .161 with a homer before rebounding in May to hit .315 with seven homers. Alas, his production was all over the place as he had three months with an OPS under .600 last year, and that’s just unacceptable. He was also a complete liability against left-handed pitching with a .211/.232/.353 line that made him look like a good hitting pitcher. Yeah, it was pretty brutal. He also hit a mere .210 with a .577 OPS on the road, so it appears that he is in desperate need of an offensive ballpark if he want’s to stave off Father Time for another year. To be fair did record 20 homers and 84 RBI, the 7th straight year he has hit at least 16 homers with 83 RBI, but those numbers were merely the result of playing everyday in a strong lineup in Philly. Ibanez posted an 18.4 K-rate which isn’t awful, but it was his second worst numbers since 1998. He also posted his lowest walk rate since that 1998 season, and the result was a 0.31 BB/K mark that was a drastic fall from his career mark of 0.54. Ibanez also hit more balls into the ground than at any point in his career (46 percent) as his fly ball rate dipped to 35.0 percent, it’s lowest mark since 2005. Can Ibanez still drive in a run? Certainly. But with his declining skill set, and the fact that he will be 40 years old on 1972, any slump at all will likely lead to him being replaced by a younger player up the upswing, not to mention the fact that even in a best case scenario he may be forced into a platoon.

Matsui (.251-12-72-56) can no longer play the field, his knees can’t take the pounding, so his outlook is even more limited than the other two. When he hit just .209 in the first half with a .617 OPS for the A’s, many an epitaph was written for his tombstone. Seemingly finding the fountain of youth, Matsui rebounded to hit a whopping .369 with 22 RBI in July to propel him to a .295 average and 38 RBI over his last 65 games. While that was a great improvement on the first half, those are still middling numbers for a DH. Matsui has failed to hit .275 for three years running, an at this point 20 homers might be a reach as well. Matsui is coming off his career worst HR/F ratio mark of 7.4 percent (career 12.6), and twice in four years that number has been in the single digits. He also hit more grounders last season than he has in three years, and that’s not going to help him reach the seats. Matsui also took fewer walks than he had since 2005, and his K-rate last season was a percentage point above his career rate. If he was 27 years old the outlook wouldn’t be dire, but as a 37 year old, the tires have almost been worn down to the tube. Given that he has appeared in only 46 games in the field the last four years, and that his bat is clearly slowing, it’s nearly impossible to think he’ll be able to appreciably improve upon last years effort.

You can find out where all of the three geezers rank in terms of their projected draft position at Fleaflicker and you can find out how I rank all three players if you purchase the BaseballGuys 2012 Fantasy Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: January 25th, 2012

YouTube has been a disaster today – really, ever since they merged with Google things haven’t worked right, at least for me. Eventually, there will be a video discussing the below topics – that is if I can ever get my video loaded up on YouTube.

(1) Prince Fielder to the Tigers. What are the implications for him and Miguel Cabrera?

(2) Wilson Betemit to the Orioles.

(3) Bartolo Colon to the A’s.

(4) Yoenis Cespedes ready to find a team.

(5) Edwin Jackson and Roy Oswalt searching for teams.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Cliff Pennington

Often times we find ourselves spending all our time talking and thinking about the elite players. People always want to know who to take in the first round or when they should grab their ace on draft day.  At the same time, people rarely talk about those glue guys that often make the difference between winning and losing. Think back to the draft table in 2011. How many people cared when they called out the names of Asdrubal Cabrera, Alex Gordon and Jhonny Peralta? Yet when all was said and done all three had impressive seasons that helped many a squad to a championship. Today I’ll highlight one of those players who you might want to think about late in drafts (especially in mixed leagues that use the corner and middle infield positions).

Cliff Pennington, for those of you who don’t know, plays shortstop for the Athletics, you know, that green and yellow team on the west coast that seemingly trades away it’s best players year after year. A decent little ballplayer, Pennington has a couple of things going for him. First, no one really cares about him. That means he will be extremely cheap to add to your squad on draft day. He’ll also likely make a solid addition if your starter at shortstop comes down with an injury early in the year forcing you to hit the waiver-wire looking for a warm body. Second, Pennington steals bases. He’s not going to push Jose Reyes for the positional lead in steals but he’s swiped 43 bases the last two years, a total only five other shortstops can better (Reyes 69, Elvis Andrus 69, Erick Aybar 52, Hanley Ramirez 52 and Jimmy Rollins 47). In an AL-only league, or a 15 team mixed league, 20+ steals from a middle infielder is a decent addition to any club.

Now I’m not going to sit here and blow soft kisses to you to hide the fact that Pennington isn’t exactly an offensive powerhouse. The owner of 18 career homers, Pennington has nonetheless knocked in an average of 51 runs the past two seasons while scoring an average of 61 runs a campaign. Those numbers are all blah, I agree, but when combined they’re really not that bad a set. Guess how many shortstops, the past two years, have scored 120 runs, knocked in 100 and stolen 40 bases? Rather shockingly the answer is just four: Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Ian Desmond and Pennington.

While consistent playing time helps with the counting numbers (Pennington has appeared in an average of 152 games the past two years), it will also allow his less than impressive batting average to drag your club down. A .259 career hitter, Cliff has hit .250 and .264 the last two years. There is some hope for a potential run at .280. After all, Pennington does own an impressive 22.1 percent line drive rate. One would expect a pretty high BABIP given that impressive LD-rate, but instead Pennington owns a .310 career mark that is only .010 points above a league average number. As we all should know by now, players set their own benchmarks in this respect, so while it seems like Pennington should post a higher BABIP maybe he won’t though his .342 mark from 2009 does give some hope. Toss in a 0.47 BB/K mark for his career though and the prospects of any substantial batting growth should be concerned a bit of a long-shot.

Pennington is not going to pull an Asdrubal Cabrera in 2012. He’s not going to morph into a difference maker, but if he shows only some slight improvement, let’s say to the .270-10-60-70-20 range, he could be an extremely useful up the middle depth play in deep mixed leagues. Don’t reach on Pennington at any point in your draft, but when you’re sitting there in the 25th round wondering whose name you should call out consider the shortstop of the Oakland Athletics.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Coco Crisp

Forever immortalized for his role in helping the Red Sox to the World Series championship, Coco Crisp has been a hot topic this offseason before he settled on an unexpected return to the Athletics (Buster Olney is reporting it’s a 2-year deal for $14 million). The question we must consider in the fantasy game is how heavily do we want to lean on an outfielder who is 32 years old who last appeared in 140 games during the 2007 season.

Let’s start the analysis by focusing on the last line in the previous paragraph. Crisp hasn’t been able to stay healthy in the recent past. Not only has it been five years since he’s appeared in 140 games, it’s actually much worse than that. Sure Crisp appeared in 136 games for the Athletics last season, but in the previous two seasons he appeared in 49 and 75 games. Moreover, over his last four seasons he’s averaged just 95 games played per season or less than two thirds of a full season. To put that number into perspective the perpetually injured J.D. Drew has averaged 117 games played the past four years. Obviously you have to know that rostering Crisp comes with substantial risk because even if he performs well. He’s not someone you can count on playing every day.

Crisp also isn’t a very good hitter. The owner of a career .275 batting average, Crisp has failed to reach that level in four of the past six seasons. Given that his batting average is barely better than the league batting mark, it would be a great thing if he had a lot of power. However, he’s got about as much power as an 18 year old prom queen. Crisp has a career best of 16 homers, though that was a lifetime ago in 2005. Since that point he’s played six seasons and not a single time has he hit more than eight homers. Obviously it stands to reason that he’s not much of a run producer either, and the record bears that out. Crisp hasn’t had even 60 RBI in any of the last four seasons, and five times in the last six years he’s failed to reach that total. Does he score a bushel of runs? Think again. Crisp has scored more than 80 runs twice, but the last time he did that was 2007, as injuries simply preclude him from being on the field enough to rack up the counting numbers. Over the past four years the fleet of foot outfielder has averaged a mere 51 runs scored per season. That’s terrible. Crisp also owns a .330 OBP for his career, which is league average. The last time he posted an OBP of .350 was — well never since his career best mark was .345 in 2005.

So Crisp is league average in batting average and OBP, is a terrible power hitter, rarely knocks runners in, and doesn’t score as many runs as he should since he is always in an out of the lineup.

So why even other with him? It’s all about the speed with Crisp as his wheels are the only thing that gives him any value in the fantasy game. Oddly, Crisp has become a more prolific base stealer as he has aged. From 2003-2009 Crisp stole at least 13 bags with a high of 28 thefts in 2007. However, he joined the A’s and stared running like he was Ricky Henderson Jr.. Crisp stole 32 bags in just 75 games in 2010 before exploding for 49 thefts last year to lead the American League (he tied with Brett Gardner). There are a few reasons to be concerned about a repeat.

(1) Players just don’t start running heavily while in their early 30′s. It’s extremely rare that a player continues to build his steal totals in his 30′s.

(2) There is the health of Crisp to worry about. With his propensity to come down injured, it’s tough to count on the steals piling up.

(3) He gets on base at a leave average rate. If he got on base more frequently he would obviously have a better chance to swipe a bag, but he doesn’t so he has to run a good portion of the time that he reaches base.

(4) His owns history shows that from 2003-10 he averaged 21 steals a season. How he’s jacked up that number to an average of 41 steals the last two seasons is somewhat of a mystery given his advancing age.

There’s nothing wrong with drafting Crisp to add some speed to your club. If he can stay healthy there’s a reasonable expectation that he’ll swipe at least 25 bags. However, expecting 45 or even 35 could be  asking too much from an injury prone an aging player. Given that he brings little else to the table other than steals, you’d be wise to avoid getting into a bidding war to obtain his services.

By Ray Flowers

Holiday Dealing

Everyone who knows me is aware of my fondness for the holiday season. My love affair for all things celebratory starts off with the dark and mysterious Halloween season. After a brief respite filled with turkey and gravy (my brother’s a chef so it’s always a wonderful meal for Thanksgiving), the season moves to snowmen, elves and Santa Claus. I know his is a baseball blog, an I promise to include some baseball in this post (Carlos Beltran and Gio Gonzalez will be dealt with), but I also wanted to point out a few interesting tidbits about the holiday season before getting to the hardball.

The actual date that Jesus was born is not known.

Christmas celebrations likely began in the late 3rd century.

German decedents apparently brought the Christmas tree to north America. At first they were just small trees that often rested on tables.

We can thank the Irish for bringing Christmas lights.

Santa Claus has a much richer history than you might think. Was he a real person? Click on the History Channel link for a video discussing the evolution of the bearded one.

ATHLETICS DEAL GONZALEZ

The A’s are blowing up their team yet again dealing their top two arms this offseason in Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill (I broke down Cahill in his PLAYER PROFILE), and reports suggest they still might move Andrew Bailey as well. Jeez, when will it end in Oakland as all they do is trade “young veterans” for younger players year after year.

Athletics: A.J. Cole, Tom Milone, Derek Norris, Brad Peacock
Nationals: Gio Gonzalez

The Nats get one of the best young lefties in baseball, a fact I mentioned in Wrapping Up The Winter Meetings. Gio has won 31 games, posted a 3.17 ERA and averaged 184 strikeouts a year the past two seasons. He leaves one of the better pitching yards in the American League for a slightly more offensive ballyard, but the move to the NL should negate that. Will Gio improve upon where he is right now? Maybe not (walks continue to be an issue). Even so, he remains a dominating left-handed starting pitcher, and there just aren’t that many to go around.

As for the Athletics, this could turn out to be one of the greatest deals the team has ever made. Of course, there is no assurance that prospects will ever develop into the stars scouts project them to be, but there is no disputing that the Athletics raided the cupboard of the Nationals. The Nats kept their top-2 prospects – Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon – but the A’s got the #2 and #3 youngsters in Peacock and Cole. Baseball America also listed Norris, a power hitting catcher with a big bat, as the 9th best player in the Nats organization. As for Milone, all he did was go 12-6 with a 3.22 ERA, 155 Ks and just 16 walks, sixteen, in 148.1 innings at Triple-A. For more on the foursome here’s the Nationals Minor League report from noted minor league expert John Sickels.

The Nationals get a huge lefty arm to pair with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman, and they clearly win this deal, in a landslide, in the short term. If we check back in two years though, this deal could be seen as the building block of another Athletics’ dynasty. Time will tell.

CARDINALS SIGN BELTRAN

After losing the great Albert Pujols, the Cardinals did the best thing they could by signing the second best bat available on the free agent market (Prince Fielder was far too expensive for the team to consider). Carlos Beltran signed a two year deal for $26 million. It’s a strong salary for Beltran and the two year commitment shields the Cards if Beltran develops more physical issues. Beltran no longer runs, he has just seven steals the past two years, but he can still hit as evidenced by his .300-22-84-78 line with the Mets and Giants last year. However, he’s no spring chicken, he’ll be 35 in April, and he did appear in just 81 and 64 games in 2009-2010 because of continued issues with his lower half. If he can stay healthy the next two years it’s certainly possible that he could repeat the numbers he posted last season, but it was still wise for the Cards not to sign him for more than a couple of seasons.

Happy Holidays to all… and to all a good night.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Josh Willingham

Were you aware that Josh Willingham led the Athletics in homers (29) and RBI (98) in 2011? Or how about this. Willingham hit more homers than Carlos Gonzalez (26) and had more RBI than Hunter Pence (97) in 2011. Not bad you say? That’s a good way to describe Willingham – he’s not a difference maker, but as a depth bat, ideally he’d be a six place hitter on a championship level team, he’s not bad at all. Well, the Twins decided that Willingham was the bat for them as they agreed to a 3-year deal for $21 million so that he could be their right-handed power behind Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau (Michael Cuddyer, a player you can read about in this Player Profile, was that right-handed bat the last few years but he’s now a Colorado Rockie). Did they make a wise choice?

The issue with Willingham is always the same, it’s his track record of back woes and ill health. In 2006-07 Willingham appeared in 142 and 144 games, but since that time he’s never been back to that level and, moreover, he’s averaged just 121 games the past four years. It’s tough for a guy to be one of the centerpiece weapons of your club if he misses one of every four games. As a result of all the missed games, Josh has hit 20 homers in only two of the last four years. However, since the start of the 2006 season he has averaged 22 homers a year or 25 homers per 500 at-bats. What he did last season, spending half his games in a ballpark in Oakland that doesn’t do hitters any homer favors, was an impressive feat (he hit 15 of his homers at home in 2011). I’ll say this though. He’s unlikely to hit 30 homers in a season unless he does get 500 at-bats because his HR/F ratio for his career is solid at 14.5 percent but far from imposing (it also doesn’t help much to learn that Target Field had mere the 8th best Park Indices for an AL park for homers by right-handed batters).

As for his batting average, that isn’t likely to improve much, especially if he repeats what he did last year. Did he expand his strike zone and start swinging for homers? It seems that way. After posting a BB/K mark of at least 0.50 in 5-straight years that number fell to a career worst 0.37 last year. That’s not a number that speaks to a strong the potential of posting a solid batting average. It’s also unlikely that he will hit much better than his .262 career rate for two main reasons. (1) He strikes out too much with over 20 percent of his at-bats resulting in a walk back to the dugout. (2) Just look at the back of his ball card. He hasn’t hit better than .268 in five years.

Willingham has a nice power bat but there are also plenty of concerns about his inability to remain on the field (again, he’s averaged less than 125 games a season the past four years). Willingham also is a rather average outfielder who is already 33 years old. Adding that up it’s probably not a great bet to lay down that he will repeat his 2011 numbers in 2012. It’s certainly possible, but there are enough concerns here that Willingham makes a much more attractive addition in a single league than in a mixed league setup for 2012. Still, Willingham is one of those guys you can add in mixed leagues as your 4th or 5th outfielder if you are comfortable with assuming the risk. If he reaches expectations you will be fine with what he gives you, but if he fails to deliver you can always go to the waiver-wire and pick up a guy like Ryan Ludwick or Garret Jones to help out your squad in the power department.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Trevor Cahill

Trevor Cahill over performed in 2010 before regressing substantially in 2011. Which pitcher should the Diamondbacks, who picked him up in a deal with the Athletics (Cahill and Craig Breslow were dealt to the D’backs for Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill and Ryan Cook), expect to show himself in 2012?

Let’s get right to the numbers with Cahill.

2010: 18-8, 2.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 5.40 K/9, 1.87 K/BB, 1.93 GB/FB
2011: 12-14, 4.16 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 6.37 K/9, 1.79 K/BB, 2.21 GB/FB

I knew a fall was coming, especially in the ratio categories. Here’s what I wrote on June 10th of 2011. “…I’ll continue to warn you that I’d be surprised if his ERA doesn’t end up being a run higher than it was last year.” How did I know that would occur? It should have been obvious.

Cahill is an extreme ground ball hurler who has generated a 56 percent ground ball rate the past two years. That’s a phenomenal number (in 2010 he was 5th in baseball in GB-rate and he was 6th in 2011 – amongst hurlers that qualified for the ERA title). Clearly he is elite at generating ground balls. This skill, more than any other, should lead to a long and successful career for Cahill. Keeping the ball on the ground covers up a multitude of sins as it takes an awful lot of singles to score a lot of runs versus those hurlers who give up the big fly with frequency.

However, despite that one elite skill, the rest of his “game” isn’t that strong. A solid K arm in the minors, Cahill has posted a strikeout mark of 5.48 per nine innings in his career. Given that the AL average during his career has been 6.88, he is clearly deficient in this measure. One could look at the growth he has shown in his three seasons and have a little hope (4.53, 5.40 and 6.37 per nine), but his 2011 mark was still well below the league average. Cahill also issues free passes a bit too frequently. In his career his BB/9 mark is 3.35 versus the league average of 3.23 (he’s also had two of three seasons above 3.50). As a result, his 1.64 K/BB ratio for his career is awful and light years from the league average of 2.13 the past three years. All the ground balls help to cover up some of these issues, but at the same time you will always struggle for consistency if your K/BB ratio is that far below 2.00.

xFIP kind of tells the story with Cahill. Though his career ERA is 3.91 his xFIP mark is 4.23 for his career. Even the last two seasons when his ERA was 3.58, his xFIP was nearly a half a run higher at 3.95.  So what is the going rate in the fantasy game for a guy who wins 14 games with a 3.95 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 5.90 K/BB ratio (the average of Cahill the last two years)? How much would you pay at the draft table for Mark Buehrle who won 13 games with a 3.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP an a 4.78 K/9 ratio in 2011?

Trevor Cahill is a better real world pitcher than a fantasy option. As a third starter he’s likely to have a long and successful career – he could be a Derek Lowe type who has a decade of success – but I’d feel best about him being a rock as a 4th starter. In the fantasy game he’ll never be a 3rd or 4th starter. The main reason is that Cahill simply doesn’t miss enough bats (his minor league K numbers just haven’t been sustained in the bigs). We’ve seen how good he can be when everything clicks, but we’ve also seen how things can go in the other direction when that sinker isn’t hitting its spots. Cahill is a solid NL-only arm because he’ll get to face the Padres and Giants a lot, two teams that can’t hit and play in pitcher’s parks, and facing pitchers instead of a DH will also be a boost to his value. Still, I have a hard time envisioning him as anything more than a 5th starter in a standard mixed league because of the lack of punchouts.

By Ray Flowers

Wrapping Up The Winter Meetings

As we wrap up the wild and wooly week that was dominated by the Angels and the Marlins, there are still plenty of newsworthy stories that we need to keep an eye on.

Gio Gonzalez is coming off two impressive seasons for the A’s as an innings eating, K machine (at least 200 innings and 171 strikeouts each of the last two years). He’s also won 31 games for a less than elite club in Oakland, and he’s a 26 year old left hander. So of course the A’s are looking to deal him. I get it, the A’s don’t have a lot of options since they are not exactly flush with cash, but what’s the point of having a club if you have to deal exactly the type of players that you should be building around? There is also a growing belief that the A’s and D’backs might work out a deal centered around Trevor Cahill.

Hiroki Kuroda is still looking for a home. It’s hard to tell if the reason he hasn’t signed is because teams fell that his heart really isn’t in it, i.e. that he wants to return to Japan, or if Kuroda is just being super picky about where he’ll sign.

Matt Moore is the best pitching prospect in baseball, a fact I spoke to in my Around the Horn Video from September 23rd (I compared him to Stephen Strasburg). The world saw that potential start to be realized late in the playoffs and the Rays, never one to ignore talent, have taken a big risk that could end up being a huge win for the team. The Rays signed Moore, who has just 9.1 innings of regular season work to his name, to a 5-year, $14 million deal (there are also three option years in the deal that could extend the contract out to $37.5 million over eight years, an a couple of escalator clauses could actually boost the total value up to $40 million). It’s a huge risk given his youth an inexperience, the Rays are saying their prayers that he doesn’t end up turning into Scott Kazmir, but if we’re six years down the road and Moore has been an All-Star four times, it will be a huge win for the club.

The Twins are operating under the assumption that Justin Morneau will be able to return to playing first base next season. Don’t count me in that group. As I said all offseason last year, I had no interest in adding Morneau to my fantasy squad, an unfortunately I was right (he appeared in only 69 games). For the Twins to expect the oft injured one to be handle first base duties is asking too much if you ask me. They’d be better off just sticking him at DH and letting him help the club with his bat.

Carlos Pena is a mere consolation prize for whomever doesn’t add Prince Fielder, but given that there could be a $100 million difference between their contracts, maybe he isn’t that bad a fall back option. Pena’s career batting average is pathetic (.239), an as I’ve written before he’s hit under .230 the last three seasons, but he is a legit power bat. The Cardinals, who now have an opening at first base, are reportedly kicking the tires.

Francisco Rodriguez apparently didn’t like what he was hearing from the marketplace, so he decided to accept the Brewers offer of arbitration. Given that the Brewers aren’t very likely to be pleased about paying a setup man $13 million a year (that’s the estimate of what K-Rod will get in arbitration), it’s hardly a surprise that the Brewers are engaging in talks with multiple teams about the setup man who wants to be a closer.

And finally, the Cubs and Rockies worked out a deal that involved Ian Stewart going to the Cubs along with Casey Weathers for Tyler Colvin and D.J. LeMahieu. Colvin has some nice pop, he’s hit 26 homers with 78 RBI and 78 runs in 581 career at-bats, but he really struggled last year hitting just .150 with a .509 OPS in 206 at-bats. The Rockies figure to give him some time in the outfield and at first base. As for Stewart, he’ll be given a chance to compete for the opening at third base with Aramis Ramirez no longer in the mix. A talented hitter with prodigious power, Stewart is a strikeout machine that simply hasn’t been able to figure out big league pitching. Still, he’s only 26 years old, so perhaps a chance to play on a regular basis will allow the former first round draft pick to finally find his footing at the big league level.

By Ray Flowers

A’s Astounding Bullpen

I know most people don’t pay close attention to baseball on the west coast, at least until the Giants won the World Series last season, but there is actually another club in the Bay Area that has, rather quietly, been working through a major transformation this offseason.

The Oakland A’s have bolstered their team in a myriad of ways. On offense they added David DeJesus, Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui (you can read about the addition of DeJesus in Four in One, Josh Willingham in Hot Stove: Signings Galore, and Matsui in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). That’s a pretty nice upgrade on offense for the club, but it’s what they have done to bolster their bullpen that is at the center of my work today.

From the 7th inning on last year, the A’s had the 2nd best ERA in the AL just 0.13 behind the Rays’ 3.06 mark), and they were also very tough to hit allowing just 405 hits, two behind the AL leaders the Rays and Yankees (don’t neglect to realize that the A’s also led the AL in overall ERA at 3.65 and in shutouts with 17). Let’s go through the parts of what could be the best pen in the AL, and perhaps all of baseball, in 2011.

It all starts with the closer, Andrew Bailey. He had surgery on his elbow in September but should be 100 percent by the times the games count. The start Bailey has had to his career is historic. You can read about the history he has made in Top-20 RPs for 2011.

The team retained sidewinder Brad Ziegler on a 1-year, $1.25 million to avoid arbitration. It’s somewhat fair to suggest that he is a gimmick hurler, but at the same time he has a 2.51 ERA and a 2.79 GB/FB ratio over 193.2 innings pitched. He is an excellent setup man who keeps the ball on the ground and avoids the big inning.

The A’s surprised many by signing fireballer Grant Balfour to serve as the 8th inning bridge to Bailey (Balfour was given a 2-year deal for $8.1 million). I already broke down Balfour in Hot Stove: Rumor Mill, Dec.29, but here is a quick recap – Balfour throws hard, strikes out a ton of batters, and is almost impossible to square up consistently if you have a bat in your hands.

So the A’s were set then, right? Not quite. They surprisingly swooped in and added another top flight arm to their bullpen in Brian Fuentes whom they agreed to a 2-year deal with (no dollar figures are known yet, but it’s been rumored to be a deal for as much as $12 million which seems high to me, but we’ll have to see). I wrote about Fuentes about a week ago in Signings and Strategy where I laid out the case that this guy is still a high level reliever despite the perception in some circles that he is no longer a strong late inning option.

The A’s didn’t sign Carl Crawford or trade for Adrian Gonzalez, but the accumulation of their “small” deals has greatly improved a club that could sneak up on many in the 2011 season.

By Ray Flowers

Insanity Reigns Supreme

In what follows you will read the tale of the best agent in baseball, a solid third basemen who is being paid as if he is the second coming of Mike Schmidt, and how a team with no chance of winning their division in 2011 is willing to dump $14 million into three moderately effective relievers.

Beltre to AL Champs

Now I’ve seen it all.

Middle relievers are getting multi year deals for more than $5 million a year, which is bad enough, but this whole Adrian Beltre situation has me totally befuddled until I read two words – Scott Boras. Somehow Beltre’s agent, Mr. Boras, has convinced the Rangers that they just had to have Beltre. Not only that, he’s convinced them to pay more than the $80-85 million Beltre was seeking as current reports put the deal he is on the verge of signing with the Rangers at 6-years and $96 million (see Postcards from Elysian Fields). Oh the deal isn’t done, and it does appear to have some language in it that could void the sixth year, but it seems like a near lock that it will get worked out. So here are my questions.

(1) Is Beltre worth that much money? I certainly don’t think so and I’ve written just that multiple times including an in depth look at the player in The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre. Give it a read before you think that the Rangers are spending their money wisely.

(2) How in the world did Mr. Boras get the Rangers to go six years and nearly $100 million on Beltre given that there seemed to be only one other team even remotely interested in Beltre? The Angels were the other team, but they reportedly pulled their 5-year, $70 million offer off the table when Beltre dragged his feat on accepting it. The Athletics long ago pulled out of the sweepstakes, and their offer was 5-years and $64 million according to reports. So again, I ask, how was Boras able to get six and 96 from the Rangers when no one else was reportedly within $25 million of that offer? There may be no person on the planet better at their job than Mr. Boras – not one.

(3) I can grant you that Beltre is a better defensive third baseman than Michael Young, but really, why the Rangers need to add Beltre to take over third and push Young to DH? Wouldn’t it have been more fiscally prudent just to leave Young at third and to bring free agent Vladimir Guerrero back to DH? Not only would they have saved something like $75 million compared to what they had to lay out for Beltre, their offense would likely have been just as good in 2011. Are the few runs a year that Beltre will save at third base worth the untold millions extra they are paying him?

(4) And finally, for the gazillionth time:
Beltre has one 30 homer season.
Beltre has two 100 RBI seasons.
Beltre has hit better than .290 just twice.

To compare – Aramis Ramirez has four 30-HR seasons, five 100 RBI efforts, and he has hit better than .290 six times, and few have ever considered him to be an elite option despite the fact that his offensive highs have dwarfed the efforts of Beltre.

Seriously, I just don’t get it.

Orioles Finally Sign Gregg

The Orioles finally got their man as they signed Kevin Gregg to a 2-year deal worth $10 million. According to Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, there is also a vesting option for a third year. For more on Gregg and his recent solid work on the hill spend a few moments looking over Hot Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy.

How does the end of the game look for the Orioles? They already have power lefty Michael Gonzalez in the pen, and he clearly can handle 9th inning work. I know he was injured last season and limited to just 24.2 innings last season because of injury, so the Orioles do need to make sure they have an alternative to Gonzalez. But still, they are paying him $6 million in 2011, and that is quite the cost for a setup man (and obviously, more than Gregg will be making). The Orioles did the smart thing and locked up control artist Koji Uehara for a mere $3 million on a one year deal (I say mere because of the aforementioned spending spree that GM’s went on this year with middle relievers). However, Uehara also had arm issues last season, and it’s unclear if he will be able to pitch every other day out of the bullpen. Uehara and Gonzalez are scheduled to make $9 million this year. Toss in another $5 million for Gregg and you are talking $14 million for those three arms in 2011. I guess in today’s age that isn’t too much to pay for a moderately successful closer, an injury prone lefty, and a guy who has thrown a total of 110.2 innings at the big league level.

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By Ray Flowers