Player Profile: Jonny Gomes

Jonny Gomes had a strong season for the Athletics in 2012 as he hit .262 with 18 homers, 47 RBIs and 46 runs scored in just 279 at-bats. Thinking that effort, in such an abbreviated campaign might lead to riches, Gomes decided to leave the Bay Area where he was born (Petaluma) and went to school (Santa Rosa Junior College) for the greener past pastures of Boston as the Red Sox game him a two year deal for $10 million (reportedly double the amount of cashola that the Athletics were said to be offering). Will the just turned 32 year old, his b-day was on Thanksgiving, be able to justify that outlay of cash the next couple of seasons?

Jonny, I lost the “h” somewhere in transit, is a power hitter. How on earth would I say that about a guy who last hit 20 homers and never more than 21 in a season that began back in 2003? Per 500 at-bats, Gomes averages 26 homers for his career, a solid mark, that is augmented by an average total of 78 RBIs. However, Gomes has failed to ever reach 90 RBIs or 26 homers in a season because of one salient fact: he just doesn’t hit right-handed pitching very well. Given that the majority of pitchers are righties, that’s a problem. It’s also the main reason that Gomes has reached 400 at-bats in a season just one time in his big league career (511 in 2010). Here are the numbers.

2012
vs. lefties: .299/.413/.561 in 164 ABs
vs. righties: .209/.324/.391 in 115 ABs

This is far from a one year issue. It’s always been the way it has been.

Career
vs. lefties: .284/.382/.512 in 934 ABs
vs. righties: .223/.307/.425 in 1,712 ABs

Some perspective. Given his career numbers he is basically Chase Headley against lefties and Mark Reynolds against righties (at least their 2012 version). Clearly he is best utilized in an environment that would play to his strengths, and that would be sitting against the toughest righties, an in fact, sitting against most righties. This situation kills his fantasy value cause it’s not like the Red Sox are unaware of his massive lefty/righty splits. That means his production from last season should be looked at as the expected level of production (don’t simply think to yourself if the Sox gave him 550 at-bats this coming season that he would hit 35 homers with 95 RBIs and 95 runs scored). To that end, here are his homer and RBI totals, normalized to 350 at-bats for his career: 18 homers, 54 RBIs and 54 runs scored. Last season, remember, his totals were nearly spot on with those marks (18-74-46). Honestly, Gomes only should be drafted in AL-only leagues in 2013, at least if you are planning on him being a player of note, because it’s not like the Red Sox aren’t going to bring in another quality body to platoon with him in the outfield (I still believe this despite the fact that this report in the Boston Globe says the Red Sox have “big plans” for Gomes). If Gomes does get 500 at-bats he will provide plenty of power, but I’m not remotely sold on that happening as I just wrote.

The move to Fenway should help Gomes to beat extra base hits around Fenway Park. Last season Boston was 10th in baseball according to Park Factors in the homer category, light years better than O.co Coliseum (the dumbest stadium name in pro sports?). Fenway was also a doubles haven ranking first in baseball (27 percent higher than every other home ball yard) while O.co (the stupidest names in pro sports?) ranked 27th. As for run scored, Fenway Park was again near the top of the list at third best in baseball while O.co (the lamest name in pro sports?) ranked one spot better in doubles than homers, 22nd. Will that be enough to offset the lack of at-bats that are likely headed his way? Of course not, but it certainly sets up well for Gomes to be a very effective hitter per plate appearance.

Speaking of his work at the plate, the guy might own a poor .244 career batting average, but he gets on base pretty well with a .334 OBP, some .090 points above his average (if he was a .270 hitter the relative difference would lead to an OBP of .360). Too bad he’s also a whiff machine who strikes out once every 3.19 at-bats or roughly once a game in his big league career. That lack of an ability to put the bat on the wall has led to a 0.37 BB/K ratio, a tenth below the big league average, and a key indicator that he may not hit even the league average unless he is heavily rested against right-handed pitching.

The Red Sox signing of Gomes was a good move. Did they overpay? Probably, but it was only a two year deal and the Sox have the money to overpay for a part-time player whereas other organizations do not. Note the key phrase of “part-time player.” The Red Sox aren’t stupid. They aren’t going to try and save a few bucks and run Gomes out there as their everyday corner outfielder and give him 550 at-bats. History has shown that would be a mistake with Gomes. Since the Sox are intelligent about the way they put a team together, and since they have the funds necessary to add parts to their roster as needed, you would have to think that another outfielder will be signed to take the at least some of at-bats against righties away from Gomes. Throw in a middling batting average, and no more than eight steals in any of the last five seasons, and you should have all the reasons you need to avoid the line of thought that Gomes is going to be a fantasy beast in mixed leagues. If by some odd chance the Red Sox don’t bring in another bat then my line of thought would change and there could be a 30-90 season in the cards (note I used the word “could” not likely), but there’s just no scenario that I can foresee that has him as anything other than an end game fantasy add for mixed leaguers in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Brandon McCarthy

Late last season, Brandon McCarthy took a line drive off his head. Thoughts of him continuing his baseball career were put on hold as he was taken to the hospital and forced to undergo brain surgery to stabilize his body and save his life. The prognosis was guarded at first, but eventually he was out of the proverbial woods and it seemed like he would be able to live a normal life. Even better at this point is that it appears likely that he will be able resume his baseball career in 2013, excellent news after the scary incident that had us all worried about his life. The D’backs decided that the free agent was worth the risk and have agreed to a two year deal worth $15.5 million dollars to have McCarthy hurl the baseball for them two next two seasons. Was that a wise investment by the Diamondbacks or should they just have signed Joe Blanton for $15 million, the price he agreed to with the Angels (for more on Blanton, see his Player Profile)?

For his career McCarthy owns a 4.02 ERA, 1.28 WHIP an a 37-39 record. Those numbers, combined with a 6.15 K/9 and 2.34 K/BB ratio, paint him as about as average a pitcher as there is in the game. However, there’s more to this pitcher than his career long numbers, much more in fact. Over the last two seasons, 43 starts with the Athletics, Brandon has taken his game up a notch. He may have only won two more games than he lost (17-15), but his ERA has been a sparkling 3.29, his WHIP an impressive 1.18, and his K/BB ratio has shot into the stratosphere at 4.00. Not only are those impressive numbers for an AL hurler, they are just flat out strong totals (the ERA is 22nd in baseball, he’s allowed just the 18th most base runners in the game, and his K/BB ratio is 10th among all pitchers who have thrown at least 275 innings). Now it’s making a lot more sense why the D’backs were happy to give him a two year deal for just over 15 million. Alas, it’s not all unicorns and rainbows with McCarthy.

The most obvious issue with Brandon is a lack of health. I’m not talking about his head injury, I’m talking about his body and more specifically his shoulder. He’s altered his mechanics over the years to compensate for his shoulder, but the fact remains that he’s been a starting pitcher since 2007 and only once in that time has he thrown 170 innings. Moreover, only once in that time has he thrown even 115 innings in a season. The guy just doesn’t have a track record of staying healthy, and it doesn’t matter how talented or effective you are if you aren’t on the field. His health is a HUGE concern.

Though his K/BB ratio has been excellent the last two years and speaks to his understanding of how to pitch, it’s all about his control (in each of the past two seasons his BB/9 mark has been under 2.00). He just doesn’t beat himself which is fantastic, but the other side of that coin is that he also isn’t a strikeout arm which does significantly impact his fantasy outlook. The only time that he’s reached 6.50 batters per nine innings in the K department was way back in 2006. For his career that 6.15 K/9 mark would equate to 123 strikeout per 180 innings pitched. Two points. (1) He’s never thrown 180 innings in a season. (2) Even if he did maintain that rate over 180 innings that total of 123 strikeouts is still just seven more than Craig Kimbrel had last season out of the bullpen. It’s a terrible mark for a starter and would have placed McCarthy 84th in the game in ’12. The lack of strikeout may not hinder his effectiveness on the hill, but it’s a significant red flag in the fantasy game.

McCarthy, who famously has become a bit of a sabermetric geek, learned that given his skill set he would be better off inducing ground balls versus allowing fly balls. He therefore attempted to tailor his pitches to induce grounders, and rather amazingly, he’s had a ton of success doing that. Over the first five seasons of his career his fly ball ratio was at least 41.7 percent each season. The last two years that mark has been 32.2 and 35.1 percent. It’s not overly difficult to understand why his performance has turned around the past two years. He’s pitched more to his strength and worked hard at keeping the ball down in the zone.

So where does all of this leave us? When healthy and on the hill the past two years, McCarthy has been a very impressive big league hurler. There are still a handful of issues you need to be aware of before rostering him. (1) He has an exceedingly difficult time staying health. His track record is one that is littered with DL stints. (2) We assume that he will be fully healthy and capable of performing at his 2011-12 levels in 2013. I certainly hope that is the case, but he did suffer a life threatening injury so I’d like to see him have some success on the hill before just blindly expecting a return to his previous levels. (3) He doesn’t strike batters out nearly enough to be a truly dynamic fantasy weapon. (4) Though he now gets to pitch in places like San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles, in ballparks that favor pitchers, his home park is not so kind to hurlers. In 2012 his home park in Oakland was 22nd in runs and 23rd in homers according to Park Factors. The park in Arizona was 6th in runs and 6th in homers. The move from the AL to the NL might not be as much of a positive as you initially thought given the more difficult home environment he will be pitching in. I wish McCarthy luck and wouldn’t at all mind if he was on my fantasy team, but I also wouldn’t draft him as an upper echelon arm given the previously noted concerns. For me, he’s 5th starter type in mixed leagues.

By Ray Flowers

To Sum Up

The 2012 regular season is over. Special congratulations should be handed out to Miguel Cabrera for winning the Triple Crown, and to the Orioles who made the playoffs winning 93 games a year after they lost — 93 games. To celebrate the end of the regular season I thought I would list some of my favorite tweets of the last 24 hours. You are all following the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, right? If you are this will seem a bit redundant, but it’s still nice to have all the tweets in one spot. Don’t make me come looking for you in the offseason. Sign up. It’s free, hopefully entertaining, an always informative.

@BaseballGuys Will Miguel Cabrera win AL MVP? 5 times a player has won TC and not been MVP: Williams (’42, ’47), Gehrig (’34), Klein (’33) & Hornsby (’22)

@MLBStatoftheDay Since the start of play on June 4, the @Athletics own a 70-37 record – the best in @MLB.

@MLBStatoftheDay Craig Kimbrel’s 0.654 WHIP is 3rd lowest in history for a pitcher with at least 50 IP, behind Dennis Eckersley’s 0.607 in ’89 & 0.614 in ’90

@MLBStatoftheDay Chase Headley is first @Padres player since Dave Winfield in 1979 to finish the season as the NL leader in RBI.

@ESPNStatsInfo Adam Dunn struck out 222 times this yr, the most in AL history and 2nd-most in MLB history (Mark Reynolds, 223 in 2009).

@ESPNStatsInfo Fernando Rodney posted an 0.60 ERA this season, the lowest in MLB history among pitchers with at least 50 IP.

@ESPNStatsInfo Cliff Lee is the 1st pitcher in the Modern Era (since 1900) to strikeout 200 batters and have 6 or fewer wins in a season.

@Jonathan_Gantt Best pitching staff ever to not make playoffs? 2012 Rays led @MLB in ERA (3.19) and opp. avg. (.228) and led AL with 1,383 Ks.

@MikeDiGiovanna Torii Hunter pulled after two ABs, closes year with .313 average, oldest player since 1957 to hit .300 first the first time.

@STATS_MLB Curtis Granderson is the fifth Yankees outfielder to hit at least 42 home runs, joining Maris, Ruth, Mantle and DiMaggio.

@beckjason In 5 seasons of AL ball, Miguel Cabrera now owns back-to-back batting titles, 2 home run crowns and 2 RBI titles.

@Haudricourt Aramis Ramirez finishes with .300 average, 50 doubles, 27 HRs 105 RBI. Not to bad as Prince Fielder’s replacement.

@richardjustice The Athletics used 16 players in clinching the AL West. GM Billy Beane acquired 9 of the 16 in the last 10 months.

@SBerthiaumeESPN Athletics join ’06 Twins, ’51 Giants as only teams whose only day alone in 1st place was the last day of the season.

@susanslusser Athletics 1st in history to win a division or pennant when trailing by 5 games or more w/ no more than 10 games left.

@PeteAbe $103 million later, Daisuke Matsuzaka pitched 668.1 innings in 6 years for the RedSox with a 4.52 ERA.

@ESPNStatsInfo Orioles are now 29-9 in one-run games. According to Elias, that’s the best win pct since 1890 Brooklyn Bridegrooms (14-4)

In the coming days I will start to break down players as we start the inevitable process of looking toward the 2013 season. I will also review how my teams did this year, and let’s just say I gave better advice this year to others than myself. With that I hope that everyone had a successful fantasy season in 2012. Enjoy it. Soon enough it will be time to start focusing on what lies ahead in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Geezers in the Outfield: Damon, Ibanez, Matsui

Johnny Damon, Raul Ibanez and Hideki Matsui have all been solid performers for years (each was a fantasy star at one point, even if you’ve forgotten because it was a while ago). Do any of the three enough residual skill to be of use in the fantasy game in 2012 as anything other than single league options (NL or AL Only)? That’s what we’re going to investigate.

Damon (.261-16-73-79-19) is one of the more stable performers in the history of the game. Really. Damon has appeared in 140 games in 16-straight years to tie Hank Aaron, Brooks Robinson and Pete Rose for the longest such run in big league history. He’s also had 11 seasons of at least 90 runs scored and 15 steals, the third most such seasons in history. Those aren’t phenomenal numbers, but they have long made him a draft day target after the bigger names were taken. However, Damon has seen his average dip the last three years (.303, .282, .271 and .261) as his bat speed slips, and last year was the first time since 1998 that he posted a BB/K rate under 0.70 (it was 0.55). His GB/FB ratio was pretty standard fair for him at 1.08 (career 1.25), and his line drive mark of 20.2 percent was right on his career rate of 20 percent, so it’s not like he’s totally lost it at the dish. Damon even upped his steals mark to 19 after totaling just 23 in 2009-10. Damon can still produce, an if given 500+ at-bats he still seems capable of replicating the fantasy line he posted last season (though I’d expect the steals to dip even if his bat remained on track).

Ibanez (.245-20-84-65) looked lost last April hitting .161 with a homer before rebounding in May to hit .315 with seven homers. Alas, his production was all over the place as he had three months with an OPS under .600 last year, and that’s just unacceptable. He was also a complete liability against left-handed pitching with a .211/.232/.353 line that made him look like a good hitting pitcher. Yeah, it was pretty brutal. He also hit a mere .210 with a .577 OPS on the road, so it appears that he is in desperate need of an offensive ballpark if he want’s to stave off Father Time for another year. To be fair did record 20 homers and 84 RBI, the 7th straight year he has hit at least 16 homers with 83 RBI, but those numbers were merely the result of playing everyday in a strong lineup in Philly. Ibanez posted an 18.4 K-rate which isn’t awful, but it was his second worst numbers since 1998. He also posted his lowest walk rate since that 1998 season, and the result was a 0.31 BB/K mark that was a drastic fall from his career mark of 0.54. Ibanez also hit more balls into the ground than at any point in his career (46 percent) as his fly ball rate dipped to 35.0 percent, it’s lowest mark since 2005. Can Ibanez still drive in a run? Certainly. But with his declining skill set, and the fact that he will be 40 years old on 1972, any slump at all will likely lead to him being replaced by a younger player up the upswing, not to mention the fact that even in a best case scenario he may be forced into a platoon.

Matsui (.251-12-72-56) can no longer play the field, his knees can’t take the pounding, so his outlook is even more limited than the other two. When he hit just .209 in the first half with a .617 OPS for the A’s, many an epitaph was written for his tombstone. Seemingly finding the fountain of youth, Matsui rebounded to hit a whopping .369 with 22 RBI in July to propel him to a .295 average and 38 RBI over his last 65 games. While that was a great improvement on the first half, those are still middling numbers for a DH. Matsui has failed to hit .275 for three years running, an at this point 20 homers might be a reach as well. Matsui is coming off his career worst HR/F ratio mark of 7.4 percent (career 12.6), and twice in four years that number has been in the single digits. He also hit more grounders last season than he has in three years, and that’s not going to help him reach the seats. Matsui also took fewer walks than he had since 2005, and his K-rate last season was a percentage point above his career rate. If he was 27 years old the outlook wouldn’t be dire, but as a 37 year old, the tires have almost been worn down to the tube. Given that he has appeared in only 46 games in the field the last four years, and that his bat is clearly slowing, it’s nearly impossible to think he’ll be able to appreciably improve upon last years effort.

You can find out where all of the three geezers rank in terms of their projected draft position at Fleaflicker and you can find out how I rank all three players if you purchase the BaseballGuys 2012 Fantasy Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Cliff Pennington

Often times we find ourselves spending all our time talking and thinking about the elite players. People always want to know who to take in the first round or when they should grab their ace on draft day.  At the same time, people rarely talk about those glue guys that often make the difference between winning and losing. Think back to the draft table in 2011. How many people cared when they called out the names of Asdrubal Cabrera, Alex Gordon and Jhonny Peralta? Yet when all was said and done all three had impressive seasons that helped many a squad to a championship. Today I’ll highlight one of those players who you might want to think about late in drafts (especially in mixed leagues that use the corner and middle infield positions).

Cliff Pennington, for those of you who don’t know, plays shortstop for the Athletics, you know, that green and yellow team on the west coast that seemingly trades away it’s best players year after year. A decent little ballplayer, Pennington has a couple of things going for him. First, no one really cares about him. That means he will be extremely cheap to add to your squad on draft day. He’ll also likely make a solid addition if your starter at shortstop comes down with an injury early in the year forcing you to hit the waiver-wire looking for a warm body. Second, Pennington steals bases. He’s not going to push Jose Reyes for the positional lead in steals but he’s swiped 43 bases the last two years, a total only five other shortstops can better (Reyes 69, Elvis Andrus 69, Erick Aybar 52, Hanley Ramirez 52 and Jimmy Rollins 47). In an AL-only league, or a 15 team mixed league, 20+ steals from a middle infielder is a decent addition to any club.

Now I’m not going to sit here and blow soft kisses to you to hide the fact that Pennington isn’t exactly an offensive powerhouse. The owner of 18 career homers, Pennington has nonetheless knocked in an average of 51 runs the past two seasons while scoring an average of 61 runs a campaign. Those numbers are all blah, I agree, but when combined they’re really not that bad a set. Guess how many shortstops, the past two years, have scored 120 runs, knocked in 100 and stolen 40 bases? Rather shockingly the answer is just four: Hanley Ramirez, Jimmy Rollins, Ian Desmond and Pennington.

While consistent playing time helps with the counting numbers (Pennington has appeared in an average of 152 games the past two years), it will also allow his less than impressive batting average to drag your club down. A .259 career hitter, Cliff has hit .250 and .264 the last two years. There is some hope for a potential run at .280. After all, Pennington does own an impressive 22.1 percent line drive rate. One would expect a pretty high BABIP given that impressive LD-rate, but instead Pennington owns a .310 career mark that is only .010 points above a league average number. As we all should know by now, players set their own benchmarks in this respect, so while it seems like Pennington should post a higher BABIP maybe he won’t though his .342 mark from 2009 does give some hope. Toss in a 0.47 BB/K mark for his career though and the prospects of any substantial batting growth should be concerned a bit of a long-shot.

Pennington is not going to pull an Asdrubal Cabrera in 2012. He’s not going to morph into a difference maker, but if he shows only some slight improvement, let’s say to the .270-10-60-70-20 range, he could be an extremely useful up the middle depth play in deep mixed leagues. Don’t reach on Pennington at any point in your draft, but when you’re sitting there in the 25th round wondering whose name you should call out consider the shortstop of the Oakland Athletics.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Coco Crisp

Forever immortalized for his role in helping the Red Sox to the World Series championship, Coco Crisp has been a hot topic this offseason before he settled on an unexpected return to the Athletics (Buster Olney is reporting it’s a 2-year deal for $14 million). The question we must consider in the fantasy game is how heavily do we want to lean on an outfielder who is 32 years old who last appeared in 140 games during the 2007 season.

Let’s start the analysis by focusing on the last line in the previous paragraph. Crisp hasn’t been able to stay healthy in the recent past. Not only has it been five years since he’s appeared in 140 games, it’s actually much worse than that. Sure Crisp appeared in 136 games for the Athletics last season, but in the previous two seasons he appeared in 49 and 75 games. Moreover, over his last four seasons he’s averaged just 95 games played per season or less than two thirds of a full season. To put that number into perspective the perpetually injured J.D. Drew has averaged 117 games played the past four years. Obviously you have to know that rostering Crisp comes with substantial risk because even if he performs well. He’s not someone you can count on playing every day.

Crisp also isn’t a very good hitter. The owner of a career .275 batting average, Crisp has failed to reach that level in four of the past six seasons. Given that his batting average is barely better than the league batting mark, it would be a great thing if he had a lot of power. However, he’s got about as much power as an 18 year old prom queen. Crisp has a career best of 16 homers, though that was a lifetime ago in 2005. Since that point he’s played six seasons and not a single time has he hit more than eight homers. Obviously it stands to reason that he’s not much of a run producer either, and the record bears that out. Crisp hasn’t had even 60 RBI in any of the last four seasons, and five times in the last six years he’s failed to reach that total. Does he score a bushel of runs? Think again. Crisp has scored more than 80 runs twice, but the last time he did that was 2007, as injuries simply preclude him from being on the field enough to rack up the counting numbers. Over the past four years the fleet of foot outfielder has averaged a mere 51 runs scored per season. That’s terrible. Crisp also owns a .330 OBP for his career, which is league average. The last time he posted an OBP of .350 was — well never since his career best mark was .345 in 2005.

So Crisp is league average in batting average and OBP, is a terrible power hitter, rarely knocks runners in, and doesn’t score as many runs as he should since he is always in an out of the lineup.

So why even other with him? It’s all about the speed with Crisp as his wheels are the only thing that gives him any value in the fantasy game. Oddly, Crisp has become a more prolific base stealer as he has aged. From 2003-2009 Crisp stole at least 13 bags with a high of 28 thefts in 2007. However, he joined the A’s and stared running like he was Ricky Henderson Jr.. Crisp stole 32 bags in just 75 games in 2010 before exploding for 49 thefts last year to lead the American League (he tied with Brett Gardner). There are a few reasons to be concerned about a repeat.

(1) Players just don’t start running heavily while in their early 30′s. It’s extremely rare that a player continues to build his steal totals in his 30′s.

(2) There is the health of Crisp to worry about. With his propensity to come down injured, it’s tough to count on the steals piling up.

(3) He gets on base at a leave average rate. If he got on base more frequently he would obviously have a better chance to swipe a bag, but he doesn’t so he has to run a good portion of the time that he reaches base.

(4) His owns history shows that from 2003-10 he averaged 21 steals a season. How he’s jacked up that number to an average of 41 steals the last two seasons is somewhat of a mystery given his advancing age.

There’s nothing wrong with drafting Crisp to add some speed to your club. If he can stay healthy there’s a reasonable expectation that he’ll swipe at least 25 bags. However, expecting 45 or even 35 could be  asking too much from an injury prone an aging player. Given that he brings little else to the table other than steals, you’d be wise to avoid getting into a bidding war to obtain his services.

By Ray Flowers

Holiday Dealing

Everyone who knows me is aware of my fondness for the holiday season. My love affair for all things celebratory starts off with the dark and mysterious Halloween season. After a brief respite filled with turkey and gravy (my brother’s a chef so it’s always a wonderful meal for Thanksgiving), the season moves to snowmen, elves and Santa Claus. I know his is a baseball blog, an I promise to include some baseball in this post (Carlos Beltran and Gio Gonzalez will be dealt with), but I also wanted to point out a few interesting tidbits about the holiday season before getting to the hardball.

The actual date that Jesus was born is not known.

Christmas celebrations likely began in the late 3rd century.

German decedents apparently brought the Christmas tree to north America. At first they were just small trees that often rested on tables.

We can thank the Irish for bringing Christmas lights.

Santa Claus has a much richer history than you might think. Was he a real person? Click on the History Channel link for a video discussing the evolution of the bearded one.

ATHLETICS DEAL GONZALEZ

The A’s are blowing up their team yet again dealing their top two arms this offseason in Gio Gonzalez and Trevor Cahill (I broke down Cahill in his PLAYER PROFILE), and reports suggest they still might move Andrew Bailey as well. Jeez, when will it end in Oakland as all they do is trade “young veterans” for younger players year after year.

Athletics: A.J. Cole, Tom Milone, Derek Norris, Brad Peacock
Nationals: Gio Gonzalez

The Nats get one of the best young lefties in baseball, a fact I mentioned in Wrapping Up The Winter Meetings. Gio has won 31 games, posted a 3.17 ERA and averaged 184 strikeouts a year the past two seasons. He leaves one of the better pitching yards in the American League for a slightly more offensive ballyard, but the move to the NL should negate that. Will Gio improve upon where he is right now? Maybe not (walks continue to be an issue). Even so, he remains a dominating left-handed starting pitcher, and there just aren’t that many to go around.

As for the Athletics, this could turn out to be one of the greatest deals the team has ever made. Of course, there is no assurance that prospects will ever develop into the stars scouts project them to be, but there is no disputing that the Athletics raided the cupboard of the Nationals. The Nats kept their top-2 prospects – Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon – but the A’s got the #2 and #3 youngsters in Peacock and Cole. Baseball America also listed Norris, a power hitting catcher with a big bat, as the 9th best player in the Nats organization. As for Milone, all he did was go 12-6 with a 3.22 ERA, 155 Ks and just 16 walks, sixteen, in 148.1 innings at Triple-A. For more on the foursome here’s the Nationals Minor League report from noted minor league expert John Sickels.

The Nationals get a huge lefty arm to pair with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmerman, and they clearly win this deal, in a landslide, in the short term. If we check back in two years though, this deal could be seen as the building block of another Athletics’ dynasty. Time will tell.

CARDINALS SIGN BELTRAN

After losing the great Albert Pujols, the Cardinals did the best thing they could by signing the second best bat available on the free agent market (Prince Fielder was far too expensive for the team to consider). Carlos Beltran signed a two year deal for $26 million. It’s a strong salary for Beltran and the two year commitment shields the Cards if Beltran develops more physical issues. Beltran no longer runs, he has just seven steals the past two years, but he can still hit as evidenced by his .300-22-84-78 line with the Mets and Giants last year. However, he’s no spring chicken, he’ll be 35 in April, and he did appear in just 81 and 64 games in 2009-2010 because of continued issues with his lower half. If he can stay healthy the next two years it’s certainly possible that he could repeat the numbers he posted last season, but it was still wise for the Cards not to sign him for more than a couple of seasons.

Happy Holidays to all… and to all a good night.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Josh Willingham

Were you aware that Josh Willingham led the Athletics in homers (29) and RBI (98) in 2011? Or how about this. Willingham hit more homers than Carlos Gonzalez (26) and had more RBI than Hunter Pence (97) in 2011. Not bad you say? That’s a good way to describe Willingham – he’s not a difference maker, but as a depth bat, ideally he’d be a six place hitter on a championship level team, he’s not bad at all. Well, the Twins decided that Willingham was the bat for them as they agreed to a 3-year deal for $21 million so that he could be their right-handed power behind Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau (Michael Cuddyer, a player you can read about in this Player Profile, was that right-handed bat the last few years but he’s now a Colorado Rockie). Did they make a wise choice?

The issue with Willingham is always the same, it’s his track record of back woes and ill health. In 2006-07 Willingham appeared in 142 and 144 games, but since that time he’s never been back to that level and, moreover, he’s averaged just 121 games the past four years. It’s tough for a guy to be one of the centerpiece weapons of your club if he misses one of every four games. As a result of all the missed games, Josh has hit 20 homers in only two of the last four years. However, since the start of the 2006 season he has averaged 22 homers a year or 25 homers per 500 at-bats. What he did last season, spending half his games in a ballpark in Oakland that doesn’t do hitters any homer favors, was an impressive feat (he hit 15 of his homers at home in 2011). I’ll say this though. He’s unlikely to hit 30 homers in a season unless he does get 500 at-bats because his HR/F ratio for his career is solid at 14.5 percent but far from imposing (it also doesn’t help much to learn that Target Field had mere the 8th best Park Indices for an AL park for homers by right-handed batters).

As for his batting average, that isn’t likely to improve much, especially if he repeats what he did last year. Did he expand his strike zone and start swinging for homers? It seems that way. After posting a BB/K mark of at least 0.50 in 5-straight years that number fell to a career worst 0.37 last year. That’s not a number that speaks to a strong the potential of posting a solid batting average. It’s also unlikely that he will hit much better than his .262 career rate for two main reasons. (1) He strikes out too much with over 20 percent of his at-bats resulting in a walk back to the dugout. (2) Just look at the back of his ball card. He hasn’t hit better than .268 in five years.

Willingham has a nice power bat but there are also plenty of concerns about his inability to remain on the field (again, he’s averaged less than 125 games a season the past four years). Willingham also is a rather average outfielder who is already 33 years old. Adding that up it’s probably not a great bet to lay down that he will repeat his 2011 numbers in 2012. It’s certainly possible, but there are enough concerns here that Willingham makes a much more attractive addition in a single league than in a mixed league setup for 2012. Still, Willingham is one of those guys you can add in mixed leagues as your 4th or 5th outfielder if you are comfortable with assuming the risk. If he reaches expectations you will be fine with what he gives you, but if he fails to deliver you can always go to the waiver-wire and pick up a guy like Ryan Ludwick or Garret Jones to help out your squad in the power department.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Trevor Cahill

Trevor Cahill over performed in 2010 before regressing substantially in 2011. Which pitcher should the Diamondbacks, who picked him up in a deal with the Athletics (Cahill and Craig Breslow were dealt to the D’backs for Jarrod Parker, Collin Cowgill and Ryan Cook), expect to show himself in 2012?

Let’s get right to the numbers with Cahill.

2010: 18-8, 2.97 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 5.40 K/9, 1.87 K/BB, 1.93 GB/FB
2011: 12-14, 4.16 ERA, 1.43 WHIP, 6.37 K/9, 1.79 K/BB, 2.21 GB/FB

I knew a fall was coming, especially in the ratio categories. Here’s what I wrote on June 10th of 2011. “…I’ll continue to warn you that I’d be surprised if his ERA doesn’t end up being a run higher than it was last year.” How did I know that would occur? It should have been obvious.

Cahill is an extreme ground ball hurler who has generated a 56 percent ground ball rate the past two years. That’s a phenomenal number (in 2010 he was 5th in baseball in GB-rate and he was 6th in 2011 – amongst hurlers that qualified for the ERA title). Clearly he is elite at generating ground balls. This skill, more than any other, should lead to a long and successful career for Cahill. Keeping the ball on the ground covers up a multitude of sins as it takes an awful lot of singles to score a lot of runs versus those hurlers who give up the big fly with frequency.

However, despite that one elite skill, the rest of his “game” isn’t that strong. A solid K arm in the minors, Cahill has posted a strikeout mark of 5.48 per nine innings in his career. Given that the AL average during his career has been 6.88, he is clearly deficient in this measure. One could look at the growth he has shown in his three seasons and have a little hope (4.53, 5.40 and 6.37 per nine), but his 2011 mark was still well below the league average. Cahill also issues free passes a bit too frequently. In his career his BB/9 mark is 3.35 versus the league average of 3.23 (he’s also had two of three seasons above 3.50). As a result, his 1.64 K/BB ratio for his career is awful and light years from the league average of 2.13 the past three years. All the ground balls help to cover up some of these issues, but at the same time you will always struggle for consistency if your K/BB ratio is that far below 2.00.

xFIP kind of tells the story with Cahill. Though his career ERA is 3.91 his xFIP mark is 4.23 for his career. Even the last two seasons when his ERA was 3.58, his xFIP was nearly a half a run higher at 3.95.  So what is the going rate in the fantasy game for a guy who wins 14 games with a 3.95 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 5.90 K/BB ratio (the average of Cahill the last two years)? How much would you pay at the draft table for Mark Buehrle who won 13 games with a 3.59 ERA, 1.30 WHIP an a 4.78 K/9 ratio in 2011?

Trevor Cahill is a better real world pitcher than a fantasy option. As a third starter he’s likely to have a long and successful career – he could be a Derek Lowe type who has a decade of success – but I’d feel best about him being a rock as a 4th starter. In the fantasy game he’ll never be a 3rd or 4th starter. The main reason is that Cahill simply doesn’t miss enough bats (his minor league K numbers just haven’t been sustained in the bigs). We’ve seen how good he can be when everything clicks, but we’ve also seen how things can go in the other direction when that sinker isn’t hitting its spots. Cahill is a solid NL-only arm because he’ll get to face the Padres and Giants a lot, two teams that can’t hit and play in pitcher’s parks, and facing pitchers instead of a DH will also be a boost to his value. Still, I have a hard time envisioning him as anything more than a 5th starter in a standard mixed league because of the lack of punchouts.

By Ray Flowers

Wrapping Up The Winter Meetings

As we wrap up the wild and wooly week that was dominated by the Angels and the Marlins, there are still plenty of newsworthy stories that we need to keep an eye on.

Gio Gonzalez is coming off two impressive seasons for the A’s as an innings eating, K machine (at least 200 innings and 171 strikeouts each of the last two years). He’s also won 31 games for a less than elite club in Oakland, and he’s a 26 year old left hander. So of course the A’s are looking to deal him. I get it, the A’s don’t have a lot of options since they are not exactly flush with cash, but what’s the point of having a club if you have to deal exactly the type of players that you should be building around? There is also a growing belief that the A’s and D’backs might work out a deal centered around Trevor Cahill.

Hiroki Kuroda is still looking for a home. It’s hard to tell if the reason he hasn’t signed is because teams fell that his heart really isn’t in it, i.e. that he wants to return to Japan, or if Kuroda is just being super picky about where he’ll sign.

Matt Moore is the best pitching prospect in baseball, a fact I spoke to in my Around the Horn Video from September 23rd (I compared him to Stephen Strasburg). The world saw that potential start to be realized late in the playoffs and the Rays, never one to ignore talent, have taken a big risk that could end up being a huge win for the team. The Rays signed Moore, who has just 9.1 innings of regular season work to his name, to a 5-year, $14 million deal (there are also three option years in the deal that could extend the contract out to $37.5 million over eight years, an a couple of escalator clauses could actually boost the total value up to $40 million). It’s a huge risk given his youth an inexperience, the Rays are saying their prayers that he doesn’t end up turning into Scott Kazmir, but if we’re six years down the road and Moore has been an All-Star four times, it will be a huge win for the club.

The Twins are operating under the assumption that Justin Morneau will be able to return to playing first base next season. Don’t count me in that group. As I said all offseason last year, I had no interest in adding Morneau to my fantasy squad, an unfortunately I was right (he appeared in only 69 games). For the Twins to expect the oft injured one to be handle first base duties is asking too much if you ask me. They’d be better off just sticking him at DH and letting him help the club with his bat.

Carlos Pena is a mere consolation prize for whomever doesn’t add Prince Fielder, but given that there could be a $100 million difference between their contracts, maybe he isn’t that bad a fall back option. Pena’s career batting average is pathetic (.239), an as I’ve written before he’s hit under .230 the last three seasons, but he is a legit power bat. The Cardinals, who now have an opening at first base, are reportedly kicking the tires.

Francisco Rodriguez apparently didn’t like what he was hearing from the marketplace, so he decided to accept the Brewers offer of arbitration. Given that the Brewers aren’t very likely to be pleased about paying a setup man $13 million a year (that’s the estimate of what K-Rod will get in arbitration), it’s hardly a surprise that the Brewers are engaging in talks with multiple teams about the setup man who wants to be a closer.

And finally, the Cubs and Rockies worked out a deal that involved Ian Stewart going to the Cubs along with Casey Weathers for Tyler Colvin and D.J. LeMahieu. Colvin has some nice pop, he’s hit 26 homers with 78 RBI and 78 runs in 581 career at-bats, but he really struggled last year hitting just .150 with a .509 OPS in 206 at-bats. The Rockies figure to give him some time in the outfield and at first base. As for Stewart, he’ll be given a chance to compete for the opening at third base with Aramis Ramirez no longer in the mix. A talented hitter with prodigious power, Stewart is a strikeout machine that simply hasn’t been able to figure out big league pitching. Still, he’s only 26 years old, so perhaps a chance to play on a regular basis will allow the former first round draft pick to finally find his footing at the big league level.

By Ray Flowers