Around the Horn: April 20, 2011

(1) Brandon Belt sent to Triple-A.

(2) Ian Stewart sent to Triple-A.

(3) Jed Lowrie to play everyday – for now. For more see: Conspiracies and Comebacks.

(4) Ryan Franklin on longer the Cards’ closer.

(5) Jason Bay (rib cage) likely to be activated on Thursday.

(6) Austin Jackson struggling mightily.

(7) David Aardsma likely to be back by end of next week.

By Ray Flowers

Second Year Players

Never one to turn away from my loyal followers, I was posed a question by Eric in the Comments section of the site: could I review some of the 2011 players who are heading into their second season and give my thoughts on their 2011 outlooks? You got it Eric. Here goes.

Brennan Boesch (current ADP from MockDraftCentral – outside the top-400): Check out his 2010 splits from the first half (.342-12-49 with a .990 OPS) and the second (.163-2-18 with a .458 OPS). He’s obviously neither hitter, and in fact his season long numbers are about what you would expect given his skill set (.256-14-67 with a .736 OPS). A repeat of last seasons numbers is certainly possibly, perhaps with some incremental growth, but that will only occur if he sees as much playing time as he did last season and at this point that is far from certain to occur. And don’t forget that he hit a mere .233 against righties while scorching lefties to the tun of a .337 mark with a .951 OPS. Those numbers make it seem like a platoon situation is possible, especially if he struggles early.

Starlin Castro (164): He had a tremendous season for the 20 year old as he hit .300 in 2010 for the Cubbies. However, he also hit only three homers and stole just 10 bases, so there wasn’t huge fantasy value produced by the Cubs’ shortstop. His value at this point of his development is basically what he can offer in the batting average and steals categories. Castro is fast, but expecting the leap to even 20 steals this season might be a bit much. As for the average, it should remain stable given his speed and the fact that he keeps the ball on the ground (1.76 GB/FB rate). At the same time, how much would you pay for a .300-5-50-75-15 season which would seem to be his upside in 2011. I’d rather take Jason Bartlett at pick #367 overall, some 200 selections later.

Ike Davis(268): Everyone in New York thinks Davis will become the next Mark Teixeira. Me? Not so much. Davis still has that hand hitch in his swing to worry about, he struck out in more than a quarter of his at-bats in ’10, and he plays in a park that isn’t exactly a homer haven. Davis also had a poor line drive rate of under 17 percent (the big league average is about 19-20 percent) which doesn’t at all support his .321 BABIP from last season. Add that up and I think he has just as good a chance to hit .250 as he does to hit .280. Given that fact, and his rather middling power for a first baseman, I really don’t see the urge to roster him in mixed leagues unless you are talking about him as a corner infield option.

Wade Davis (395): Drafters aren’t giving Davis much love. Maybe it’s because of all the young arms in Tampa that cause Davis to get lost in the shuffle? A sturdy 6’5″ and about 225 lbs., Davis seems physically capable of handling whatever innings the Rays want to throw his way. He was solid last season with a big league average walk rate (3.32 per nine), his ERA was just a hair over four at 4.07 (a pretty good mark in the AL East), while his WHIP of 1.35 was passable. He will need to curtail his homer rate a bit, it was 1.29 per nine last season, but that could easily be accomplished if he split the difference between his fly ball rate in six starts in 2009 (36 percent) and 29 last year (44 percent). The biggest concern here is where did the Ks go? After posting an 8.74 K/9 mark in the minors he was at 8.92 per nine in ’09 with the Rays. If he can add a strikeout to his mark of just 6.05 from last year, that will go a long way to making him relevant in mixed leagues.

David Freese (396): Freese has hit .299 in 271 big league at-bats after hitting .308 in the minors. Clearly, the average is legit. However, he has only five homers in the bigs and has hit a rather pedestrian 17 homers over his last 500 at-bats including his minor league work. The biggest concern with him though is his health. Freese had both of his ankles operated on, and though everyone is hoping he will be ready for opening day, there is certainly some concern (the team has already announced that Allen Craig will see more time at third in spring in case he is needed in season). At this point I’m only taking Freese as an NL-only option at the corner infield spot, but there is some upside if he’s healthy.

Austin Jackson (319): Jackson led baseball with a .396 BABIP in 2010. There is no chance he repeats that number in 2011. Yes, players establish their own baseline in BABIP, and yes, fast players often surpass the major league average in BABIP (which is about .300 by the way). Still, there is no way that he will be able to push .400 again. Honestly, I think he has a hard time pushing .350. That said, his average could dip quite a bit from his .293 mark of last season. He could steal 30 bases and hit a few more homers, but that average is gonna come down. I mean for goodness sakes, the guy struck out 170 times last year and hit four homers. That’s plain awful.

Gaby Sanchez (234): A fourth round selection in 2005, Sanchez went to college meaning that he is already 27 years old which should temper somewhat the thought that he could take a major step forward in his second full season in the bigs. We all look for power at the corner infield spot, and with Sanchez it’s much more Lyle Overbay than Prince Fielder. Sanchez had a nine percent HR/F ratio, right on the big league average in 2010. The only reason he hit 19 homers was the fact that he produced a high 46 percent fly ball rate. If that number regresses even slightly in 2011, 25 homers will be a pipe dream. Draft Sanchez expecting a repeat or slight improvement from last season, but don’t draft him expecting a breakout season.

Four in One

There are four main story lines I want to hit on today. Two involve players that were recently sent to new teams, while two others deal with the first awards to be handed out this season.

Rookie of the Year Results

I went on record making Buster Posey as my choice for NL Rookie of the Year and Austin Jackson as my AL choice (you can read my full arguments for both at the links to NL Rookie of the Year and AL Rookie of the Year). How accurate were my predictions?

In the NL my top-3 were Posey, Jason Heyward and Jaime Garcia – the exact same order as the official voting. The only oddity in the voting was that a voter left Posey and Heyward off their ballot meaning they didn’t put either in their top-3. That’s disgraceful. They should have their voting privilege revoked.

In the AL, I wasn’t a soothsayer. I predicted Austin Jackson, Neftali Feliz and John Jaso as the top-3. The actual vote went Feliz-Jackson-Danny Valencia (Jaso came in fifth, Wade Davis also finished ahead of him in 4th place). Again, I always favor the everyday player over the pitcher if there is any doubt, kind of like a tie on the bases goes to the runner.

Cameron Maybin a Padre

The Padres traded for ultra talented Cameron Maybin giving up two strong relievers in Edwin Mujica and Ryan Webb who will now call Florida home.

Mujica struck out more than a batter per inning this season with 72 Ks in 69.2 innings. He also didn’t walk anyone with only six walks on the year meaning his K/BB ratio was 12.00, a historic number (it was the 4th best number in the history of baseball for a guy who tossed at least 65 innings). He needs to cut down the homers though – he owns a 1.43 per nine mark. Webb allowed only one homer in 59 innings as he posted a 2.90 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP for the Padres in 2010. He is an extreme groundball hurler with an ultra impressive 3.68 GB/FB ratio in ’10, an if he keeps that up he is going to have a job for an awfully long time.

Maybin is an all-around athlete who scouts will tell you owns every physical skill needed to have success at the big league level. At the same time, the sports world is a results driven business, and to this point Maybin has been a disappointment. Through 168 major league games Maybin is hitting .246 with 13 homers, 45 RBI, 93 runs scored and 19 thefts . While that isn’t good, it’s not all far removed from the type of effort that new teammate Chase Headley offered in 2009 (.264-11-58-77-17). In addition, the 23 year old Maybin has hit .284 with 62 RBI, 65 runs and 13 steals in just 115 games at Triple-A. The question is, can he translate his talent into production at the big league level? I think that, despite going to the worst offensive park in baseball in San Diego, that Maybin has a legitimate shot to be the next Mike Cameron. He’ll post a decent average, with a good amount of pop, and enough speed to be interesting. I think he could go 20/20 in 2011, and honestly, if he plays every day and doesn’t go 15/15, I would be disappointed.

David DeJesus an Athletic

The Athletics picked up outfielder David DeJesus by sending pitchers Vin Mazzaro and Justin Marks to the Royals. Mazarro will be in the Royals rotation next season after going 6-8 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 122.1 innings with the A’s in 2010. Marks is a 22 year old who was taken in the third round of the 2009 Entry Draft. He had more than a K per inning at Single-A ball last season with 136 in 129.1 innings. His future is still a few years away from hitting.

DeJesus is a solid major league player who has more value in the real world than he does in fantasy. He is a good citizen, plays defense well, runs the bases well, and does a solid job of getting on base. In terms of numbers he owns a career slash line of .289/.360/.427, and per 162 games in his career he has posted an average fantasy line of .289-11-72-93-9. That isn’t over the top production by any means, but it marks him as a solid #5 outfielder in mixed leagues, and a solid #3 option in AL-only scenarios. I really like the guy, and it stands to reason that his production won’t change too much in Oakland. Just do yourself a favor and make sure you don’t draft him expecting him to match last years .318 average – it almost certainly will not be repeated.

By Ray Flowers

Who is the AL Rookie of the Year?

Prior to the completion of the 2010 regular season, I gave a quick run down of the main candidates for the major baseball awards in Early Award Returns. Never one to rest with a cursory look into any topic, I thought it would be a worthwhile venture to explore each of the major awards in a more in-depth manner. With that, here are my thoughts on the 2010 AL MVP.

To see the previous articles in the series click on the following link:

Who is the NL MVP?

Who is the AL MVP?

Who is the NL Cy Young?

Who is the AL Cy Young?

Who is the NL Rookie of the Year?

AL Rookie of the Year Discussion

Brennan Boesch: He was the best power bat amongst AL rookies this season with 14 homers and 67 RBI, but his production was all over the map. Boesch was hitting .342 with 12 homers and 49 RBI at the All-Star break when I pleaded with everyone to trade him. Hell, as early as the second week of June I was jumping off his bandwagon because he was, simply put, hitting in an extreme amount of luck (you can read my thoughts in BABIP: Hitters). I wasn’t surprised he slumped in the second half, but the drop was precipitous to say the least (.163-2-18 over 68 games).

Wade Davis:  He was everything the Rays hoped he would be in his first full season in the big leagues. He won 12 games, against 10 loses, and despite some ups and down, in addition to some time on the DL, he still posted a solid 4.07 ERA over 168.1 innings. He didn’t strike out as many as hoped – his K/9 mark was a mere 6.05, well below his roughly one per inning pace in he minors – but he managed to keep his walks in check (3.32 BB/9).  He really wasn’t much more than ordinary, but that is still pretty darn good for a rookie in the AL East.

Neftali Feliz: The question to start the year was whether or not he would start of pitch out of the bullpen? The Rangers obviously made the right choice. When Frank Francisco struggled to hold down the 9th, the Rangers gave the ball to Feliz, and he rewarded their faith with the most saves by a rookie in baseball history (40). He also struck out more than a batter per inning (9.22 K/9) while posting a 2.73 ERA and 0.88 WHIP for the AL West champs.

Austin Jackson: I’m still shocked. Jackson led the majors in BABIP at .396, a completely ridiculous mark (see BABIP: Finally Tally- Hitters). At the same time Jackson became the 4th rookie in baseball history – since 1901 anyway – to have a season of 100 runs, 25 steals, 30 doubles, 10 triples and 180 hits. You can read who the other three are at By the Numbers. He clearly was the most productive hitting rookie in the Junior Circuit, there is no debating that.

John Jaso: When you are a catcher for a team that leads the league in victories – the Rays won 96 games – people tend to take notice. Though his 5×5 numbers were ordinary (.263-5-44-57) it should be noted that he had only 339 at-bats. Because of his ability to control the strike zone – he had an excellent 1.51 BB/K mark leading to a .372 OBP – Jaso batted leadoff 45 times for the Rays.

Brian Matusz: He tossed 175.2 innings for the Orioles racking up 10 victories against 12 loses. He also had middling ratios – a 4.30 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP – for a team that was once again a bottom feeder. However, he really stepped up his game down the stretch and completely turned his game around after the All-Star break going 7-3 with a 3.63 ERA an a 1.19 WHIP over 14 starts. All in all, it was a wonderful rookie season filled with much promise thanks to his superlative finish.

Carlos Santana: A knee injury ruined what was shaping up to be a sublime rookie season. In a mere 150 at-bats Santana had six homers, 22 RBI and 23 runs scored, a 120 game pace that would equate to 16 homers, 57 RBI and 60 runs scored. He also posted a .401 OBP leading to an impressive .868 OPS thanks in no small part to his tremendous plate discipline (1.28 BB/K).

In the end, this is a two-man race. Do you favor the everyday player (Jackson) or the pitcher (Feliz)? After much internal wrangling I’m going to award the trophy to the Tigers’ everyday center fielder but that call was by the hair on my gray chinny-chin-chin.

7- Brennan Boesch
6- Carlos Santana
5- John Jaso
4- Brian Matusz
3- Wade Davis
2- Neftali Feliz
1- Austin Jackson

By Ray Flowers

Early Award Returns

I’ll certainly go into much greater depth on all of the major baseball awards between now and the time that the season is completed, but I just wanted to give a few thoughts on the races at this point as the season marches, inexorably, toward the conclusion of the regular season (go Giants).

AL MVP

Main Candidates: Jose Bautista, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, Paul Konerko
Hamilton will lead baseball in batting average (.361), and he is hopeful of a return to action from his rib issue on Friday. Still, the guy has appeared in only two games in September and just 130 on the season. Is that really an MVP worthy campaign? There has only been one MVP who appeared in fewer than 15 September games in a non-strike season, and that was Dick Groat of the Pirates in 1960. I know it would make a great story, but I can’t give a thumbs up to a guy who didn’t do a damn thing in the seasons most important month.

NL MVP

Main Candidates: Carlos Gonzalez, Albert Pujols, Troy Tulowitzki, Joey Votto
CarGo and Tulo will likely cancel each other out. The anti-Hamilton, look at their numbers in September: Gonzalez (.412-5-26-24 with a 1.131 OPS), Tulowitzki (.299-15-40 with a 1.148 OPS). If that means the decision is left to Pujols and Votto you have to think the fact that Votto’s Reds are playoff bound will tip the scales in his favor in the eyes of most voters since Votto and Pujols have had nearly identical numbers this season: Votto (.325-37-111-104-16 with a 1.029 OPS), Pujols (.313-42-117-113-13 with a 1.015 OPS). Will Pujols’ history win out over Votto’s winning record?

AL Cy Young

Main Candidates: Clay Buchholz, Trevor Cahill, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee, Jon Lester, David Price, CC Sabathia
The best pitcher in the AL has been Felix Hernandez, though he is a mere 13-12 because of brutal run support (the Mariners scored seven runs while he was in the game in his 12 loses). Hernandez leads the league in ERA (2.27), strikeouts (232), innings pitched (249.2), quality starts (30) and he is second in WHIP at 1.06 (Cliff Lee has a 1.02 mark). Still, no starting pitcher, in a non-strike season, has ever won the award with fewer than the 15 victories that Tim Lincecum posted last season.

NL Cy Young

Main Candidates: Roy Halladay, Tim Hudson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright
Hudson ha lost four of five decisions as his ERA has gone from 2.24 to 2.76. Jimenez was 15-1 at the All-Star break but only 4-7 since. Johnson leads the NL with a 2.30 ERA but he pitched only 183.2 innings and won just 11 games. That leaves Halladay and Wainwright to finish 1-2, with Halladay likely to win the award despite nearly identical totals: Halladay (21-10, 2.44 ERA, 219 Ks, 1.04 WHIP), Wainwright (20-11, 2.42 ERA, 213 Ks, 1.05 WHIP).

AL Rookie of the Year

Main Candidates: Neftali Feliz, Austin Jackson
Feliz was left in the bullpen when the club realized it had a hole there (he was slated to spend at least some time in the rotation), and all Feliz has done is have the best closing season by a rookie in league history with a record 38 saves in just 41 chances. He’s also posted a 0.90 WHIP over 66.1 innings.
Jackson has played strong defense in center field while at the same time scoring a ton of runs (102). He’s also hit nearly .300 at .299, while adding 26 steals. Do you favor pitching or hitting?

NL Rookie of the Year

Main Candidates: Starlin Castro, Ike Davis, Jamie Garcia, Jason Heyward, Buster Posey, Gaby Sanchez
One of the strongest rookie classes in recent memory. As much as people seem to want to hand the award to Heyward, there are a couple of salient points that Heyward apologists have to deal with. (1) Sanchez has one more homer with 19, while he has knocked in 12 more runs (83) then Heyward. Heck, Sanchez is only batting .003 points lower at .276. How many people think Sanchez should win the award? That’s exactly why Heyward’s candidacy isn’t as strong as some profess. (2) Buster Posey has only two fewer homers and seven less RBI than Heyward despite appearing in 35 fewer games. Posey also has a .020 point lead in OPS, and he is a catcher. I’m admittedly biased as a Giants fan, but I just don’t get all this Heyward talk.

By Ray Flowers

Tuesday’s Travels

There’s no theme to my madness today. I’m just going with a stream of consciousness vibe here as I get ready to run around the block, lift some weights, and watch the Sharks hopefully move to a 3-0 lead over the Red Wings.

* Rick Ankiel was placed on the DL today, retroactive to May 3rd, with a strained right quadriceps muscle. He will be replaced on the active roster by Kila Ka’aihue. Of course, the Royals blew this one by giving Ankiel two pinch hitting at-bats on Saturday and Sunday after holding him out of the starting lineup since April 24th. This is yet another reason why the Royals fail to ever win (poor roster management). If you don’t know who KK is, he is a slugging first basemen who has an OPS over 1.000 this year in Triple-A. What position did the Royals just say they wanted Alex Gordon to learn? They also said they wanted Gordon to pick up an outfielder’s glove, so I won’t lambast them for that decision.

Since I’m on a role I might as well keep going with Royals talk. Mike Aviles has been called up from the minors and will start in place of Yuniesky Betancourt on Tuesday. Aviles hit .284 in some limited work at Triple-A this year, and the dude can flat out hit (he owns a .293 career mark in 540 at-bats with the Royals). Betancourt started out hot but he’s hit only .240 over his last 50 at-bats, and his defense has slipped in recent years as well. Aviles certainly could lock down the starting job at short if he starts out hot, so make sure he isn’t floating on waivers in your AL-only league.

* Kyle Blanks update: he still can’t hit. He has 18 strikeouts in his last 29 at-bats leading to an inconcionable K-rate of 44.4 percent on the year. He is so lost that it’s to the point that the team must send him to Triple-A since he is a walking disaster right now.

* Watching Tim Lincecum vs. the Marlins right now. He just struck out Cameron Maybin on a poor swing before getting Chris Coghlan to swing over a pitch by about 18 inches. He then gave up a hit to Hanley Ramirez before punching out Jorge Cantu for three Ks in the first inning. Dude is just amazing.

* Vin Mazzaro will replace Justin Duchscherer for one start. That is if you believe that Duke’s hip will respond quickly to the cortisone shot he just got. Don’t consider me to be one of those that believes that will happen. That means Mazzaro is a must add in AL-only leagues. He didn’t look great after a hot start last year, but a spot it the rotation is a spot in the rotation.

* Two pitchers going in opposite directions with health. Jair Jurrjens probably won’t make his start on Saturday because of a strained hamstring. He injured the hammy last Thursday and still isn’t ready to thrown in the pen (Kris Medlen could pick up the start). Carlos Silva, dealing with a wrist issue, didn’t need a cortisone shot in his wrist so he will make a start for the Cubs on Friday instead of needing another day of rest. I still want Jurrjens every time over Silva despite these health revelations – and I don’t even love Jurrjens which tells you all you need to know about my thoughts on Silva.

* Lincecum started the second inning punching out Dan Uggla on a 94 mph at the knees. He didn’t even get a swing off. Same thing just happened to John Baker.

For more of my thoughts on some things that shook out on Tuesday give Around the Horn a read where I discuss Jeff Clement, Austin Jackson, Chris Davis, Juan Pierre and the Phillies’ bullpen (Ryan Madson will miss at least eight weeks after having surgery to repair the toe he broke kicking a chair last week).

By Ray Flowers