Quietly Making History

Seven.

That’s the number of The Wonders of the World.

It’s also the number Mickey Mantle wore on his back.

There are seven days in a week.

Seven also happens to be the number of men who have hit 600 homers in their career.

That number will soon turn to eight.

762 – Barry Bonds

755 – Hank Aaron

714 – Babe Ruth

660 – Willie Mays

630 – Ken Griffey Jr.

626 – Alex Rodriguez

609 – Sammy Sosa

Jim Thome continues his march toward history, albeit with little of the fanfare that he deserves. Sitting on 596 home runs, Thome is about to join the elite power hitters who ever played the game. Yet no one seems to care. I find that completely vexing if for no other reason than the club is so exclusive. Add in the fact that Bonds, A-Roid and Sosa have huge clouds hanging over their heads as a results of the PED scandal, and it could legitimately be argued that only four men truly deserve to be in the group. The fifth would be Thome (there have long been whispers about Thome, but he’s never failed a test, nor is there a massive amount of evidence pointing to his guilt like there is with Bonds.
A few Thome facts…

He has hit at least 20 homers 16 times, the 4^th highest total in league history.

He has hit at least 30 homers 12 times, the 4^th highest total in league history.

He has hit at least 40 homers six times, the 5^th highest total in league history.

He has scored 100 runs eight times.

He has drive in 100 runs nine times.

He has scored more than 1,500 runs, and knocked in more than 1,600.

He’s walked more than 1,700 times in his career putting him in the top-10 all-time.

Face it, Thome has been a very good player for a very long period of time. He was never a good fielder, he lost his glove about a decade ago, but the man is one of the best in the history of the game at taking a walk and going deep. For that, he should get a lot more credit than he has received for a career that rightly should place him in the Hall of Fame one day.

And finally, how about Hideki Matsui? He recently joined the 500-HR club. The majority of his bombs were hit in Japan (332), but Matsui still became the first player to reach the total 500 homer total in a career split between Japan and the States. Congrats

By Ray Flowers

What’s on Tap?

photo © 2008 Dirk | more info (via: Wylio)

Tonight’s a big night for me as I get ready to make a big home cooked meal. What’s on the menu? Pancetta and peas, creamed corn and a main course of stir fried chicken and eggplant. I know you wish you were coming over. Don’t lie.

Heath Bell and Francisco Rodriguez are two of the better closers in baseball, but will they remain so for the duration of the 2011 season? Both pitchers are gearing up to be dealt by their respective clubs. You have to figure that both will be dealt to a team that will ask them to close, but what if a team like the Yankees comes a calling? Mariano Rivera is going to remain the closer for the Yanks, we all know that, so an addition in the pen would be one in which the new guy would be asked to serve as a setup man. Again, I don’t anticipate either bell or K-Rod going to a team that won’t ask them to work the 9th inning, but it’s something to keep in mind if you own either hurler right now.

Adam Dunn please wake up from your slumber. Perhaps he made a wish in a water fountain that resulted in him switching bodies with his friend who always wondered what it would be like to be a big league baseball player? I know that sounds stupid, but it is the same basic plot of The Change-Up, minus the baseball connection, a movie that will be in theaters in August (it stars Ryan Reynolds and Jason Bateman for all you ladies out there). Dunn is hitting .175 with seven homers in 217 at-bats. Are you kidding me? Dunn has hit at least 38 homers in 7-straight year, tied with Babe Ruth for the second longest such streak in baseball history. He’s looking like he may not even get to half that mark this season. He’s been so awful that his career OBP of .378 dwarfs his current slugging percent (.323). My goodness, his SLG is only .009 points higher than his OBP this season. You simply can’t lose your skills overnight, can you?

Do you need a laugh? If you do, and you missed this yesterday, here’s a wonderfully amusing story about Josh Hamilton who says that he can’t hit during day games because he has blue eyes.

Orlando Hudson has appeared in 1,180 games in the big leagues in a career that started in 2002. He just set a career best with his 11th theft of the year. He’s only appeared in 40 games this season. It’s pretty rare for a guy to go from stealing eight bases a year to 44 (his current pace if he played 160 games). Hudson certainly will not get there because of missed time, but it’s still remarkable to consider how out of bounds he is right now on the bases. Guys don’t suddenly take jumps like this in performance. Now where is my update on Jose Bautista again?

Speaking of Bautista he will be the Blue Jays third baseman moving forward. You can’t blame the Jays for bringing him in from the outfield, not when the third base position has produced five homers, 26 RBI and a .177 batting average this season for the team from the Great White North.

I love bacon. By itself, on a sandwich, in a salad or wrapped around some type of fish. If you disagree with my assessment that bacon is the best food on the planet then I don’t know what to tell you.

Have we all overlooked just how amazing that catcher Brian McCann is when he has a bat in his hands? McCann is currently hitting .305 with 13 homers, 45 RBI an a .903 OPS – fantastic numbers for a backstop. Since the start of the 2006 season he leads catchers in homers (120) and RBI (486). He’s also hit a robust .290 in his career.

By Ray Flowers

Bonds, Ruth and Bautista?

photo © 2010 Matt Pirecki | more info (via: Wylio)

The sun will rise in the morning, Raquel Welch will always be beautiful, and Jose Bautista will be the best hitter in baseball. Wait, what?

I’ve been a broken record for 12 months now. I keep saying “Jose Bautista can’t possibly keep this up,” yet week after week he does. It’s gotten to such a ridiculous point that people are now claiming that Bautista is not only a top-10 fantasy performer but that he is the best hitter in the game right now. Should we replace Lou Gehrig in the photo to the left and put Jose Bautista next to Babe Ruth?

2004-2009 SEASONS
During this period, Bautista’s season bests were 16 homers, 63 RBI, 75 runs scored and a .254 average. For the six years his slash line was .238/.329/.400. During that time the league average as better at .270/.340/.434.

2010 SEASON
.260-54-124-109 with a .995 OPS
Bautista led baseball in homers, was third in RBI and sixth in runs scored. He also became the fourth hitter in baseball history to have a season of 50 homers, 120 RBI, 100 runs, 100 walks and 35 doubles (the others are Babe Ruth, Hack Wilson and Luis Gonzalez).

2011 SEASON
.370-16-27-35-4 with a 1.365 OPS
His effort thus far is simply stunning. Bautista has been so stupendous, and honestly that word doesn’t do his performance justice, that he is on pace to hit hit .370 with 61 homers, 104 RBI, 135 runs scored and 15 steals.

HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE

Bautista’s work in 2011 is so absurd that it’s akin to being hit square in the face with a cast iron skillet.

(1) Bautista is hitting .370 and is on pace for more than 60 homers. Since 1940, only one player has hit .350 with 50 homers in a season. The year was 1957 and that hitter was Mickey Mantle (.365 with 52 homers).

(2) Bautista has an OBP of .516. In the history of baseball there have only been 10 seasons that can match that (minimum of 502 plate appearances). Think about that. Of all the players who have every played, there have only been 10 seasons better than the level that Bautista is currently getting on base.

(3) Bautista has an .849 SLG. In the history of the game only Barry Bonds 2001 season of .863 is better.

(4) Bautista has a 1.365 OPS. In the history of baseball there have only been four seasons that ended with marks higher than that – three by Barry Bonds and one by Babe Ruth.

As much as you all love Bautista, there simply can’t be a single person out there with half a brain that can legitimately claim that Bautista’s name should be mentioned in the same breath as Mickey Mantle, Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth. We can agree on that, right? Come on, be honest. Do you really, if you search deep into the recesses of your being, think that Bautista deserves to have his name mentioned amongst the best hitters that the game of baseball has every produced before?

PERSONAL REVIEW

I’ve written and talked about how preposterous the performance of Bautista is going back to the start of last season. Here are the bullet points.

Bautista has never, not one single time, hit even .265 in a season. NEVER.
Bautista has never, not one single time, posted an OBP of .380 in a season.

As much as we want to say that he’s changed his swing and just figured everything out, we still have six years of below average work and one and a quarter seasons of excellence to review. Don’t forget that Bautista owns a rather average set of career numbers.

In his career his slash line is .250/.351/.472
The average player during his career has posted a line of .267/.337/.426.

PREDICTION

Can he keep up his current pace? I can say with 100 percent certainty that he cannot.

There is no way he hits .370, .350, or even .330. Players just don’t add .100 points to their career batting average, it just doesn’t happen.

Is he going to finish with an OBP, SLG and OPS in the top-10 all-time for a single season? Please.

The question is – how much will he fall? Secondarily, will he be a top-5 performer, a top-10 performer, a top-25 performer? That’s where things get a bit trickier.

Put your thinking cap on and be honest. If I told you that Player A, through a quarter of a season, was producing career bests in AVG/OBP/SLG, home run rate, steal rate, walk rate, K-rate and BABIP, wouldn’t your inclination be to be wary of that level of production continuing?

What if I told you he was hitting .110 points better than ever before?

Or how about if he was on pace to bump his OBP by .138 points?

What about if his SLG was .233 points clear of any previous season?

What about if he was running so frequently that he was on pace to basically double his career best effort?

You’d tell me there was no chance that Player A would be able to keep that up. Given that, why is everyone so willing to throw out logic and common sense when it comes to Jose Bautista?

By Ray Flowers

HOF: The Case for Bagwell

With the Hall of Fame vote coming up (the results will be released on January 6th), I thought it might be nice to link to the pieces I wrote last year regarding a handful of players that were up for consideration but who failed to be enshrined. Here are those links.

Edgar Martinez – Is There Room for a DH?
HOF – Tim Raines .
Is McGriff Hall Worthy ?
HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood ?
HOF: Who am I ?

In addition, here is my recap on how the voting actually turned out last year in HOF: What Should Have Been.

As for the vote this year, there seems to be growing support for the candidacy of Jeff Bagwell. Should be be enshrined in the Hall of Fame?

PRO

(1) Bagwell spent his entire 15 year career with the Astros. I know this really doesn’t matter, but in the world of money grubbing by players you have to tip your hat to Bagwell for this accomplishment of staying with one club.

(2) He was the 1991 NL Rookie of the Year, and in 1994 he was named NL MVP. He also finished in the top-10 in MVP voting five times on his way to 2.89 Career MVP Shares, the 35th highest mark in league history.

(3) He was named to four All-Star teams.

(4) He had 1,529 RBI – 45th all-time – and he also scored 1,517 runs, good for 62nd all-time. No player eligible for the Hall of Fame with 1,500 runs and 1,500 RBI isn’t in the Hall.

(5) He finished his career with a .408 OBP, the 40th best mark ever.

(6) He finished his career with a .540 SLG, the 35th best mark ever.

(7) He finished his career with a .948 OPS, the 21st best mark ever. This is a simply stupendous accomplishment for a guy who spent so much of his career hitting in the Astrodome.

(8) Bagwell led the league in runs three times – with a high of 152. In fact, he scored 143 and 152 runs in 1999-2000, and amongst first basemen only he and Lou Gehrig ever had back-to-back seasons of 140+ runs in the history of baseball.

(9) Bagwell hit .297 with 449 homers, 1,529 RBI, 1,517 runs and an OPS of .948. In the history of baseball, only 10 men have reached each of those totals in their career, and oh what a list it is: Stan Musial, Barry Bonds, Mel Ott, Alex Rodriguez, Babe Ruth, Manny Ramirez, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams and Mr. Bagwell.

CON

(1) He spent his entire career with the Astros. Did anyone notice how great he was since they never saw him play in person or on television?

(2) The strike in 1994 ruined what was shaping up to be a historic season. Bagwell hit .368 with 39 homers, 116 RBI and 104 runs scored… in 110 games. Along the way he led the league in RBI and runs, not to mention SLG (.750) and OPS (1.201). If he had kept that pace up over 160 games he would have produced a line of .368-57-169 with 151 runs scored. If he had produced a season for the ages like that, would more people have taken notice of him?

(3) Despite his tremendous work, other than 1994, was he ever even considered the best first baseman in baseball with players like Fred McGriff, Mo Vaughn, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Carlos Delgado and Todd Helton around?

VERDICT

Bagwell should be a lock. In addition to being a tremendous person and teammate, he was also a dynamic player. His career totals stack up well against pretty much any man who ever played first base, and it’s not his fault there were so many tremendous hitting first basemen in the game when he played. Bagwell was also widely regarded as one of the best base runners in baseball in his career, even with less than scintillating speed, and that reputation should augment the glowing numbers. The Hall of Fame candidacy of many players has been exaggerated of late, but if Mr. Bagwell is enshrined the voting body will be making a decision that will undoubtedly stand the test of time.

By Ray Flowers

Top-10 1B for 2011

Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for the staff to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-10 First Basemen for 2011 and explain my thoughts on the position.

For the other reviews in this series, click on the following links.

Top-20 SPs: Latos and Jimenez?.

Top-10 RPs for 2011.

Top-20 OFs for 2011.

Top-10 SS for 2011.

Top-10 3B for 2011.

Top-10 2B for 2011.

Albert Pujols is the number one player at the position, and there is no debate that he is also the #1 option in fantasy baseball. Hence, it’s no surprise that Pujols was ranked #1 by everyone on staff.

Miguel Cabrera is the second best right-handed hitter in baseball if you ask this scribe. He was also my choice as the AL MVP for 2010. It’s no surprise therefore that I listed him second amongst the first sackers. Everyone else agreed with me except for Jason Collette who listed Cabrera third, one spot behind Joey Votto. Given that everyone else on staff had Votto third, let’s just say that there is universal agreement on the top-3.

In the 4th spot we had power hitter extraordinare Ryan Howard. Even coming off the worst full season of his career (31 homers, 109 RBI), the staff clearly thinks he has a chance to return to the level that saw him produce at least 45 homers with 136 RBI each year from 2006-09.

Mark Teixiera was atrocious in April hitting .136 with two homers. Predictably he came on strong as the year progressed finishing with his customary power totals (33 homers and 108 RBI). Tex also scored 113 times, a career best, which helped to make up for his .256 average, the first time he had dipped below .280 since his rookie season. He was given a 7th place ranking by Seth Trachtman or he likely would have pulled ahead of Howard for 4th spot overall

Adrian Gonzalez came in 6th ahead of Prince Fielder, though I had the two in the other order. I bet the staff was thinking (a) Gonzalez could be traded and if he is, out of the best pitcher’s park in baseball, his numbers would improve; (b) Gonzalez is a more consistent player who owns a slightly higher career batting average (.284 to .279); (c) people were likely put off by the mere 83 RBI that Fielder had in ’10. I wonder if they would change their minds now that it appears that the shoulder surgery that Adrian Gonzalez had will keep him out of action until February or March?

In 8th and 9th were two sluggers who are dynamic options, albeit coming off of injury plagued seasons. Kevin Youkilis was his normal star self hitting .307-19-62 with 77 runs in just 102 games. He had surgery to repair a thumb injury and should be fine for the start of 2011. Justin Morneau was even more effective hitting an amazing .345 with 18 homers, 56 RBI and 53 runs in just 81 games. His season was ended by a concussion, and he is still not able to physically handle baseball related activities. The Twins believe he will be ready for opening day, though because of that health issue, I didn’t have Morneau in my top-10.

After that there were a bunch of players that didn’t receive a full compliment of votes. In fact, neither did Morneau (Youkilis was the last first basemen who appeared in the top-10 on all ballots).

My #9 guy was Paul Konerko. You can read more on my thoughts about him in the 2010 White Sox Team Review.

My 10th rated first basemen is the most consistent power hitter in baseball – Adam Dunn. In each of the past seven seasons he has hit at least 38 home runs. That is the second longest streak in baseball history – tied with Babe Ruth – and just two behind the all-time mark held by Sammy Sosa.

As they say, first base is the land of sluggers.

By Ray Flowers

By The Numbers

With the World Series barely 24 hours away, I thought I would take a step back and look at some of the numbers that popped out at me when looking at the regular season performance of the men on the diamond.

Daric Barton led the AL with 110 walks, 10 more than the only other fella in the Junior Circuit (Jose Bautista was the other with an even 100 walks). Miguel Cabrera was the only one of the top-5 AL walk getters who whiffed less than 100 times with 95 punchouts on the year. Over in the NL, Albert Pujols walked 103 times, a third straight year of triple-digit walks for the Cardinals’ star. Pujols career worst for Ks is 93, and that was back during his rookie season (2001) though it should be pointed out that for the first time in nine years he struck out more than 70-times with 76 punchouts in 2010.

Adrian Beltre posted a .919 OPS, the best amongst full-time third basemen in baseball this season (Jose Bautista was at .995), and it was the second best mark of his career behind the historic 1.017 mark he posted in 2004. For some historical perspective, the 1.017 mark of Beltre is the the 17th best mark in baseball history for a third basemen.

Did you know that Rodrigo Lopez led baseball with 37 homers allowed? That’s the same total as Roy Oswalt (19) and Tim Lincecum (18) allowed. The AL leader was James Shields and he allowed 34 while twirling on the hill for the Rays. His total was matched by the combined efforts of Felix Hernandez (17) and Dallas Braden (17).

Gio Gonzalez won 15 games which is one more than Francisco Liriano and two more than Felix Hernandez. Those 15 wins also tied Gio for the third most by a lefty in baseball with John Danks, Brett Cecil and C.J. Wilson. The only three lefties with more victories were CC Sabathia (21), David Price (19) and Jon Lester (19).

Josh Hamilton hit .359 with 32 homers and 100 RBI this season. Those three numbers made him just the eighth man in American league history to reach all three of those Triple-Crown marks in the same season. Here are the others: Babe Ruth (seven times), Lou Gehrig (three), Al Simmons (twice), Jimmie Foxx (twice) and then Ted Williams, Norm Cash and Joe DiMaggio all accomplished the feat once.

Shaun Marcum had a wonderful bounce back season after undergoing Tommy John surgery as he posted a 3.64 ERA and 13 victories in 31 starts covering 195.1 innings. However, it’s his WHIP that really stands out as he posted a 1.15 mark, this after a 1.16 mark in 2008. As great as Jon Lester has been the past two years (34 wins, 450 Ks), he has posted WHIP’s of 1.23 and 1.20. How is that for some perspective on how good Marcum has been his last two seasons?

Nick Markakis had hit at least 16 homers in each of his first four seasons before falling well off the map this year with just 12 big flies for the Orioles. Still, he posted a 4th straight season of at least 40-doubles, he hit 45, and that is ties him for the third longest 40-double streak in big league history (the record is jointly held by Joe Medwick and Wade Boggs at 7-straight). If we up the double mark to 43 a season, a total that Markakis has reached each of the past four years, he moves up to second on the list trailing only Joe Medwick’s 5-year run (Tris Speaker also hit 43 doubles in 4-straight years).

By Ray Flowers

Who Am I?

Who Am I?

From time to time I like to play this game of leading you down the Yellowbrick road to the Wizard of Oz (here is a link to my most recent venture in the world of Who am I?). With that brief intro, let’s get right to it.

* I made five All-Star teams (1993-97).

* I hit .301 in my career. Only 192 men who have ever played that game have posted a higher mark (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).

* I didn’t reach 2,500 career hits, but I did smack 2,468 of them, the 96th best mark ever.

* I didn’t reach 1,500 career runs but I did stroll across home plate 1,494 times, good enough for 68th all-time.

* I didn’t reach 500 doubles, but I did slug 495 two baggers, the 55th best mark ever.

* I knocked in 1,704 runs, the 22nd best mark of all-time.

* I had one of the best eyes at the dish – ever. In fact, I often was picked on by the media because I took too many pitches. As a result of my approach I walked 1,667 times, the 9th most ever, and that helped me to post an OBP of .419 (21st all-time).

* Because of all my extra base hits (26th all-time with 1,028) I was able to post the 25th best SLG ever at .555.

* Not surprisingly, since I’m 21st all-time in OBP and 25th in SLG, my overall OPS of .974 is top notch, 15th best ever actually.

* I was the AL MVP twice (1993-94).

* I have 4.79 Win Shares, the 13th highest mark in the history of the game thanks to those two wins, and six overall top-5 MVP finishes.

* I hit 521 homers in my career, the 18th best mark of all-time.

* I share the same name as a slugger who once hit 10 home runs in just 20 at-bats over six games in May, 1968.

Who am I? I’m Frank Thomas.

The reason I decided to write about Thomas should hopefully be obvious after reading all those numbers above (not to mention the fact that he officially retired from baseball on Thursday last week). The bottom line with Frank is that he was one of the most fearsome sluggers the game has ever seen – period. Let me place all of the above numbers into perspective.

How many players in history have hit .300 with 500 homers, 1,700 RBI, 1,400 runs and an OPS of .950? The answer is six, and obviously Frank is one of them. The others, well to say that they are some of the all-time greats is an understatement: Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Jimmie Foxx, Babe Ruth and Ted Williams.

Not just a “numbers” guy, Frank was exceedingly well respected in his career as evidenced by his dual MVPs and the 13th most Win Shares of all-time, and that should clearly have led to some “love” for the guy from the fans and the media, but all many seem to remember is the lumbering injury prone hitter of the past few years.

As a counter argument to his potential election to the Hall of Fame you’ll get the argument that he wasn’t very athletic and that he was a poor defensive player. I can’t refute that in the least. However, the totality of his offensive work was so spectacular, remember the group of six referenced above, that if Frank is kept out of the HOF they should revoke the credentials of the voting body because if the voters don’t put a check in the box next to his name they clearly have no inkling of an understanding of what it means to be a dynamic offensive weapon, and therefore they have no business determining who is immortalized in the Hall of Fame.

By Ray Flowers

Context Revisited

A while back I addressed the fact that a ton of people who analyze the game of baseball, mostly those who work for big/fancy corporations, either (A) have no idea what they are talking about, or (B) think that you are so stupid that you couldn’t possibly understand the nuances of analysis so they just continue to spew the same, slightly meaningful crap, as everyone else. Alas, it really isn’t that difficult to place things in the proper context – all you need to do is to apply a little elbow grease. After I re-reading that previous piece entitled Some People Never Learn, I thought I would expand upon the idea of context with a few more concrete examples of why it is so vital to do place whatever you are analyzing on some continuum to root it in the real world.

Which player would you prefer to have on your team?

Carl Yastrzemski who hit .301 in 1968 or Glenn Wright who hit .321 in 1930?

If that was all the information you had at your disposal you would clearly answer Wright since he hit .020 points higher, but where is the context? There is none. We could add the context of opportunity, i.e. at-bats, and try to derive an answer. Alas, that context still says the option to choose would be Wright given that he hit .020 points higher in only seven fewer at-bats than the 539 that Yaz racked up in ’68. However, another level of context would be to discuss the era, or the level of competition that they faced in their respective season. We could talk about how there were no players of color playing in 1930, or the fact that teams traveled by bus and train and not airplanes, but those things aren’t really quantifiable since we would be dealing in the realm of supposition. So, why don’t we just compare each batter’s batting average directly to those who were also playing at the same time.

Yaz hit .301 in ’68, the Year of the Pitcher, and the AL batted just .230.
Wright hit .321 in ’30, and that year the NL batted, hold on to your hats, .303!

To arrive at how each player did in relation to their competition, you simply divide the players batting average by the league average to come up with an adjusted total.

Yaz: .301 / .230 = 1.31
Wright: .321 / .303 = 1.06

So what this context shows is that despite batting .020 points higher according to their raw batting averages, Wright’s batting average was only 6% better than the league average in 1930 whereas Yaz’s piddly .301 average, which led the AL by the way, was a full 31% better than the league average. Given that context, which batter would you have wanted for your hypothetical team?

And that’s the trick of context. Numbers are just numbers without context, and far too often people try to compare players of different era’sby merely looking at raw numbers without any deference being paid to context. Here are two concrete examples

(1) Shoeless Joe Jackson hit all of 54 home runs in his career. Willie Mays hit 660 home runs in his career. So Mays was the better power hitter, right? Not so fast. Partly because of huge disadvantage in batting average (.356 to .302), Mays finished his career with an OPS that was just .001 point higher than Jackson at .941. In addition, if we place each batter’s effort in context by comparing his effort against the league during the years that he played, we find out that Mays’ adjusted OPS says he was 56% better than his level of competition. As for Jackson, playing in the so-called dead-ball era, his adjusted OPS was 70% better than his competition. Ergo, according to this context, Jackson was actually a better offensive weapon as measured by OPS, and in fact by a rather large percentage, over Mays.

(2) Let’s line up home run king Barry Bonds with home run king Babe Ruth. In terms of raw numbers Barry Bonds out-homered Ruth 762 to 714. However, if we use context, who was the better home run hitter?

In 1919 Ruth hit 29 home runs. No one else in the AL hit more than 10.
In 1920 Ruth hit 54 home runs. No one else hit more than 19.
In 1921 Ruth hit 59 home runs. No one else hit more than 24.

I could do on, but the point is pretty obvious. Ruth wasn’t just winning the home run title, he was more than doubling his next closest competitor in some years. For all the home runs he hit, Bonds only lead the league in home runs twice (Ruth did 12 times), and in those two seasons Bonds led the league by a mere six home runs (46 to 40) and nine (73 to 64).

So the next time someone just starts throwing raw numbers out there when they are making a Hall of Fame argument take a moment, adjust things with some context, and come up with an answer to the question or comparison that actually makes some logical sense – even if the majority of sports writers view that concept as being as foreign as the ability to fly to the sun like Icarus.

By Ray Flowers

HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood?

Mark McGwire, like the mythic figure of Babe Ruth, seemed to transcend the game. Massive muscles, topped only by mammoth blasts that reached the upper levels of seats, were his calling card. A huge man who stood 6’5″ while weighing something like 250 (or more) pounds, he was a cartoon character who made pitchers look foolish when they grooved a pitch. He was a generational icon who did what he did – blast long balls – just about as well as anyone who had ever played the game.

Alas, McGwire’s run as a hero to many was destroyed well before it should have been when he was tainted by the whole PED scandal (Performance Enhancing Drugs). I’m not here to say whether or not he did anything illegal, goodness knows there have been reams of articles dealing with that very subject (for my thoughts on the topic take a look at Death of the Hero). The bottom line is that unless you want to exclude every player who suited up from 1995-2005 from the Hall of Fame, you have to make the decision to judge the players based on the merit of their works on the field and not by the suppositions of the masses. If everyone was or wasn’t cheating isn’t the point. The point is we don’t know who was “cheating,” we don’t have anyway of knowing who was cheating, and there will never be a way to prove, one or another, who was cheating. So let’s just examine McGwire through the lens of the men that he played against to see how he ranks, and by extension, whether or not he should be elected to the Hall of Fame in his fourth year on the ballot (I’m under no illusions that he will be selected for enshrinement, he certainly will not).

* McGwire, a pitcher in college at USC, started out his career as an offensive force being moved to third base before finally being shifted over to first base. In his first year in the bigs (1987), a 6’5″, 220 lbs McGwire won the Rookie of the Year award hitting .289 with 49 homers, 118 RBI and a .618 SLG (the HR and SLG led the league).

* McGwire never won the MVP award in his career, likely a result of a career batting average of just .263, but he still finished in the top-7 five different times finishing second to Sammy Sosa in 1998 despite hitting .299 with a then record 70 homers (he also scored 130 runs and knocked in 147 while posting a massive 1.222 OPS).

* Despite the plethora of talented men who played first base during his career, McGwire was named to the All-Star team 12 times. In fact, from 1987-2000 he missed out only in 1993 and 1994 when he was injured and limited to 27 and 47 games.

* From 1987 through his final year in the big leagues (2001), here is how McGwire ranked in a myriad of categories for that 15-year stretch.

McGwire hit 580 homers, the most in baseball (Barry Bonds had 551).
McGwire had 1,405 RBI, third most in baseball (Bonds had 1,494).
McGwire had a .590 SLG, the third best mark in baseball (Bonds and Manny Ramirez led the way at .594).
McGwire had a .985 OPS, fourth in baseball (Bonds at 1.017).

McGwire clearly dominated when compared to his peers, a fact that isn’t lost when we compare him to the immortals of the game. Here are McGwire all-time ranks in a handful of categories.

583 home runs, 8th all-time
1,414 RBI, 66th all-time
.394 OBP, 78th all-time
.588 SLG, 9th all-time
.982 OPS, 11th all-time

Clearly this man was one of the greatest sluggers of all-time, period. To me, that record of achievement deserves enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. I’ll leave the value judgments to others. What was it that Jesus said way back when? “Let he who is without sin among you be the first to throw a stone…” (John 8:7).

To see my thoughts on others in my HOF series simply click on the following links:

Who Am I?

HOF: Tim Raines

Is McGriff Hall Worthy?

The Case of Andre Dawson

By Ray Flowers

HOF: Tim Raines

Hall of Fame talk is starting to heat up with the announcement of the 2010 inductees mere days away (January 6th). Some players eligible for the first time include Barry Larkin, Andres Galarraga, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez and Roberto Alomar (you can read my thoughts on Alomar in Who Am I?). Other players who return hoping to pick up the required 75 percent vote this season include a host of some of the who’s who in the game the past 30 years: Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven, Lee Smith, Jack Morris, Mark McGwire and Tim Raines. The last name on this list is who I’m going to focus on in this piece.

Long considered the best leadoff man in the National League during his career, Tim Raines had the misfortune of being the second best leadoff hitter in the game when he played. Mind you, there is no reason to hang ones head when you are #2 behind the man widely considered to be the best ever to fill the roll in Rickey Henderson, but clearly Raines falls behind Henderson in almost every way you can possible think of. Here are each man’s career bests in the 5×5 categories.

Raines: .334-18-68-133-90
Henderson:.325-28-74-146-130

Mind you the numbers are pretty close, but when we move to the realm of their career totals, the gap does widen.

Raines: .294-170-980-1,571-808
Henderson: .279-297-1,115-2,295-1,406

By the way, Henderson scored more runs and stole more bases than any man who ever lived.

Still, like I said at the start, the decision to vote for Raines shouldn’t be about Raines vs. Henderson, it should be about how Raines staked up against the competition. In this respect, he did very well.

Raines was named to 7-straight All-Star teams (1981-87).

Raines finished in the top-10 in AVG four times (led league at .334 in 1986).

Raines was top-10 in runs scored eight times (led league twice – 1983, 1987).

Raines led the NL in steals 4-straight years (1981-84). He also finished in the top-10 seven other times.

Raines finished in the top-10 in hits six times.

Raines finished in the top-10 in triples nine times.

Raines finished in the top-10 in OBP seven times (led league in 1986 at .413).

Raines finished in the top-10 in OPS four times.

Obviously Raines was one of the most effective players in the game for the majority of a decade as he enjoyed some tremendous success with the Expos. All told, that success led to some marks that clearly place him amongst the all-time greats that the game has ever seen.

Raines scored 1,571 runs, the 50th best total ever.
Raines produced 2,605 hits, the 73rd best total ever.
Raines stole 808 bases, the 5th best total ever.
Raines produced 1,636 Runs Created, the 53rd best mark ever.
Raines produced a 280.9 Power-Speed Number, the 28th best mark ever.

Yes, Mr. Raines was one hell of a player.

So why has he failed to break even 25 percent in the HOF vote in his first two go round in the voting process? My guess is that Raines fails in the most basic of comparisons – he simply wasn’t the best at what he did during his career failing to live up to the impossibly high standards of Henderson. Is that fair? Certainly not. There are a plethora of players enshrined in the Hall who may not have been “the best” when they were playing, just think of the comparison of Yankee teammates Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. Should Gehrig have been denied admittance to the Hall since he wasn’t even the best player on his team? Of course not.

In the end I have no idea why Raines has gotten such little respect for what he accomplished as he was clearly the best leadoff man in the National League in the 1980′s. It might take a while for Raines to get his due but I certainly hold out hope that one of these years he will be recognized for what he was, and that was one of the best players every to hit atop of a major league lineup.

DEROSA TO GIANTS?

By Ray Flowers