Player Profile: Albert Pujols

Albert Pujols will be in the Hall of Fame one day. He is one of the most consistently excellent hitters that that the game has ever seen (only Alex Rodriguez, with 13, has more consecutive seasons with 30 homers and 99 RBIs than Pujols who is at 12 and counting heading into the 2013 season). Pujols is third all-time in MVP Shares (6.90) behind only Barry Bonds (9.30) and Stan Musial (6.96) thanks to three MVP awards and 11-straight years in the top-10 in voting (he fell to 17th last season). Pujols is also 2nd in WAR – everyone’s favorite new measure even though less than one percent of people know how to figure it out – among active players according to BaseballReference.com. Pujols is also going in the top-10 in virtually every fantasy baseball draft this season. I’m going to burst that bubble and let you know that Pujols’ just isn’t the lock he once was, despite the prevailing wisdom, to return his draft day cost. I know Mike Trout is amazing, and the addition of Josh Hamilton to support Pujols is huge, but folks, there is skills slippage with Mr. Pujols.

Let’s start the bashing right off the top, shall we?

Pujols has seen his batting average go down, down, down. Here are his batting average marks the past five years: .357, .327, .312, .299 and .285. That’s four straight years of a declining batting average. Moreover, his .292 batting average the past two years is 28th in baseball and .033 points below his career mark.

Pujols has seen his OBP go down, down, down. Here are his OBP marks the past five years: .462, .443, .414, .366 and .343. That’s four straight years of a declining OBP. Moreover, his .354 OBP the past two years is 38th in baseball and .060 points below his career average.

Pujols has seen his SLG go down, down, down. Here are his SLG marks the past four years: .658, .596, .541 and .516. That’s three straight years of a declining SLG. Moreover, his .528 SLG the past two years is 11th in baseball and .080 points below his career average.

Are you nervous yet? All three of those categories are well above big league average and still very solid marks, but the consistent decline the past few seasons should, at the very least, give you some pause that Pujols is a lock as a top-10 fantasy selection in 2013 (truth be told, I don’t have Pujols as my first or second ranked first sacker this year in my rankings. You can find a link to those rankings at the bottom of this piece in the Draft Guide link).

Some further disturbing trends.

Pujols has averaged 34 homers the past two seasons after averaging 41 homers his first 10 seasons. He’s also dipped from an average of 123 RBIs and 119 runs over the first decade of his career to an average of 102 RBIs and 95 runs the past two seasons.

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Pujols, from 2001-10, posted a walk rate in the double-digits every season. The last two years that mark has been 9.4 and 7.8 percent. To put that last number in perspective, in 2008-09 his walk rate was 16.3 percent more than doubling his mark from 2012.

From 2003-09 Pujols had a K-rate in the single digits. In two of the past three years that mark has been 10.9 and 11.3 percent. The 11.3 percent K-rate from last season is his worst mark since his rookie season back in 2001.

In each of the past three years Pujols has failed to reach his career average with his HR/F ratio. He’s also had three of the four lowest marks of his career the past three years. A career 19.2 percent HR/F ratio has fallen to 18.3, 18.3 an a career worst 14.0 percent the past three seasons.

Pujols hasn’t reached his career 19.0 percent line drive rate since 2008. That’s 4-straight years of less than his career average with his line drive rate (you have to be noticing the trend by now).

His rate of swinging at pitches out of the strike zone continues to increase. A career 22.9 percent mark in this category has swelled to 27.5, 31.8 and 36.4 percent the past three years. That’s a pretty scary increase. As a result, pitchers are throwing him less strikes than ever before. Not only did he see a career low 43.1 percent of pitches in the strike zone last season, he’s failed to see his career average of 47.8 percent each of the past five years.

If you believe his birth certificate, Pujols is 33 years old, an age where some regression is to be expected. Therefore, I’m not the least alarmed at the picture I’ve painted above. What we are seeing here is normal. The problem becomes not his declining production but the expectation that Pujols is somehow going to recapture his past glory. ‘But Ray, with that great lineup around him in Anaheim, surely you think Pujols has another great season in him.’ I would say he has another season in him of excellent production. Is that production first round type of stuff in the fantasy game given the clear downturn in so many of his measures? I’d say the answer to that question is – maybe. Pujols is a lock to be productive if healthy, and I’m not saying he’s going to be Chris Davis in 2013, but I’m merely pointing out that your expectations have a better chance of being reached if you look at the Pujols of the past two seasons and remove thoughts of the .330-40-120-115 guy we are used to seeing at the dish – especially since his knee is still giving him all kinds of trouble.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter, one of the Yankees’ all-time greats (and that is saying something given the storied history of that major league baseball franchise), suffered through two down seasons in 2010-11 causing many to think the time in the sun for the Yankee’s leader was finally drawing to an end. However, showing that greatness should never be doubted, Jeter rebounded with a flurry of offensive fireworks in ’12 proving along the way that his 38 year old body – he’ll be 39 in June – still had something left to contribute in this game. Alas, the good feelings were wiped out when he fractured his ankle in the playoffs leading to October surgery. Jeter is progressing well with hie rehab and everyone thinks he will be on the field Opening Day. The question in the fantasy baseball game is should he be in your fantasy lineup?

Jeter is one of the greatest offensive forces in the history of baseball. Just take a quick glance as his all-time rankings with the bat when compared against other shortstops.

1st in hits (3,304)
1st in runs (1,868)
7th in AVG (.313)
8th in OBP (.382)

He’s also been remarkably consistent with 14 different seasons hitting .290 with 10 homers, 10 steals, 50 RBIs and 75 runs scored. No other shortstop has ever had more than seven such seasons (Barry Larkin).

Above I noted that Jeter had a strong 2012, an effort which included a .316 average, 15 homers, 58 RBIs, 99 runs scored and nine steals. For any player that’s damn impressive, let alone a guy who is pushing 40.

Obviously though there is much more to the story than that or why would I bother writing about him?

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Let’s start with the most obvious issue – his health. Again, his ankle should be good to go but he is coming off a significant injury at 38 years old. That has to cause some concern. Another issue that plays off the injury is that he stole only nine bases last season even before he was hurt. Is an aging player, coming off a significant ankle issue, likely to return to stealing 15 plus bases as he did in five of the past six season before last year?

Next is the power. The 15 homers were a three year high and only one less than he hit in 2010-11. It’s also the second highest mark he has posted since 2005. Clearly he shouldn’t be expected to go deep another 15 times. The back of his ball card tells you that. Going a bit deeper it should be noted that he posted a career worst fly ball rate of 15.9 percent. I have to be honest. There are times where numbers catch even The Oracle by surprise, and this is one of those cases. I knew that Jeter was far from the type of batter that spends any time lifting the ball, but under 16 percent of batted balls going upward? That’s akin to the level of oddness that saw Barry Bonds going deep 73 times. The big league average fly ball rate is literally more than double the mark that Jeter posted in ’12 (35 percent last year). Not just that, but Jeter has failed to reach even 20 percent with his fly ball rate in any of the last three seasons. Moreover, Jeter’s 16.1 percent HR/F ratio last season was the second best mark of his career and four of the previous five seasons that number wasn’t even in double-digits. Fifteen homers ain’t happening again.

Is the batting average repeatable? On the surface you’d have to say yes. After all, he only batted three points higher than his career mark of .313. Still, if I was a betting man I’d lay pretty strong odds against a batting average repeat. He hit .270 and .297 in 2010-11. He’s coming off injury. He’s 38 (stop me if you’ve read this before). There’s also that amazingly low fly ball rate. There’s also the insanely high 3.94 GB/FB ratio (Jeter has hit at least 62 percent of his batted balls on the ground the past three years). Jeter depends, to a large extent, on his batted balls not finding a fielders glove. That’s always going to leave him at the whim of the placement of those grounders and the defenders. He also swung at more pitches outside the strike zone than ever before in 2010 (28.2 percent). He upped that mark to 28.8 percent in 2011. Things got even worse in 2012 at 31.1 percent. Overall he swung at 50 percent of pitches last year, an eight year high. Jeter also posted a contract rate of 84.5 percent, a very solid mark, but still a six year low. Pitchers noticed all of that too as they only threw him strikes on 44.9 percent of pitches, the fewest strikes he has ever seen. None of that speaks to a repeat in the batting average category.

If healthy, and he should be, Jeter will still be an effective hitter. He’s simply too talented an experienced to just fall on his face. However, the average is likely to recede. It doesn’t seem probable that he will be stealing 15+ bags either. There is no way he will go deep 15 times again. Add that all up and you would be in a much better place if you looked at his 2011 effort (.297 with six homers, 61 RBIs and 84 runs scored) as the baseline for your 2013 expectations.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Operation Zero: The 2013 Hall of Fame Class

I’ve resisted writing about the 2013 MLB Hall of Fame candidates up until this point. Before detailing why it is insane that no players were elected to the Hall of Fame this year, I thought I would simply cut and past some of my tweets from the BaseballGuys’ Twitter feed over the past few days.

So hypocritical – people are busted weekly in NFL for steroids, no one cares. Merriman made the Pro Bowl year he got popped.

We have the Mitchell Report and what else? There’s no way to know what someone did 15 years ago.

Everyone can think what they want, I just think it’s extremely cynical just to assume everyone who is good is guilty.

Did some players use drugs to enhance their performance? Absolutely they did. Do we know everyone who did/didn’t? There is no way to know.

We have to judge players against others in their era. I’m so sick of Everyone accusing Every player of cheating w/o proof.

My point is that we have NO idea who used PEDs and who didn’t. In USA you’re innocent until PROVEN guilty.

Players in the 1970′s all used “greenies” – do we then say everyone in the 70′s is a cheater and should be downgraded?

Can’t we just say the era is tainted and move on? This PED stuff is soooo played out.

Newsflash people – players have cheated since the game was invented.

And this from Dustin Swedelson, a producer at SiriusXM (@dustinswedelson)

Remember when the writers who vote for baseball HOF’s jobs mattered again because of the steroid era? Didn’t hear them investigate then

Here’s my bottom line. We don’t know who did PED’s. We will never know. Baseball needs to decide how it will handle this. (A) We say everyone who played baseball for 15 years can’t be inducted into Cooperstown. (B) We admit that players cheated, compare them against their contemporaries, and judge them based upon their on the field merits. It’s really as simple as that folks. Without evidence, EVIDENCE, we can’t choose to exclude or include this person or that person because of a feeling. Well people can, but it’s grossly misguided and absolutely nonsensical for people to do so. So stop the madness folks. Decide everyone is out or everyone will be judged based on their performance. Short of irrefutable proof that a player cheated it’s an assault on common sense to exclude players simply because you have a “feeling” they cheated. Preposterous.

Here are the actual results of the 2013 vote.

Here are my thoughts on all the players who received at least 10 percent of the 2013 vote.

Craig Biggio (68.2 percent – 75 percent is needed for election): One of the scrappiest player of the last 30 years, Biggio came up as a catcher, won four Gold Gloves at second base, and then moved to the outfield later in his career. Other than a guy like Pete Rose, who has done that at the level of Biggio? Craig is 15th all-time in runs scored, 21st in hits (3,060) and fifth in doubles. Heck, he even went deep 291 times in his career. He should be enshrined.

Jack Morris (67.7 percent): His support continues to grow, but it’s revisionist history. The guy may have thrown a ton of innings and come up big in some big games, but my HOF has no place for a pitcher who never led the league in WHIP or ERA, and only once led his league in strikeouts (232 in 1983). Heck, he was never even the runner up for the Cy Young Award.

Jeff Bagwell (59.6 percent): My thoughts can be found in The Case for Bagwell.

Mike Piazza (57.8 percent): How in the world can the greatest hitting catcher of all-time not be in the HOF? From 1993-2002 an average Pizza season was a .322 average, 35 homers, 107 RBIs, 85 runs scored and an OPS of .969. How many elite level players ever have a season that good once? – and he did it for a decade. While catching.

Tim Raines (52.2 percent): A travesty he’s not been elected. See HOF: Tim Raines.

Lee Smith (47.8 percent): I gave my thoughts on closers in What is a HOF Closer? The 478 saves are amazing, and his longevity is impressive (13-straight years with at least 25 saves from 1983-95). I’m not overly impressive by guys that throw one inning though. I’m even less impressed by a guys save total as saves are a result of opportunity (we all know some teams use their “better” pitcher in a setup role). A 8.73 K/9, 2.57 K/BB, 3.03 ERA and 1.26 WHIP just don’t do it for me.

Curt Schilling (38.8 percent): He was dominant in the post-season going 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA and 0.97 WHIP and that’s great, but someone shouldn’t be in or out based on 133.1 playoff innings. Won “only” 216 games but had a solid .597 winning percentage, and for his career his ERA+ was 127 meaning his 3.46 raw ERA was 27 percent better than the league average, an impressive number. He also struck better than 8.5 batters per nine, and for his career his 4.38 K/BB ratio is elite (it’s the best ever for a pitcher who threw 3,000 innings). He’s in – barely.

Roger Clemens (37.6 percent): One of the 10 greatest pitchers of all-time if you judge base on the numbers. An MVP award, seven Cy Young’s, 9th all-time in wins, 3rd in strikeouts and his ERA+ was 143, forty three percent better than the league average (his raw ERA was 3.12, his WHIP 1.17). The case against him is certainly there, but I’m still putting him in.

Barry Bonds (36.2 percent): There may be no more conclusive case about PED use for a player than the case with Bonds. Fourteen All-Star games, eight Gold Gloves, seven MVP awards – separated by eight years (his last of the ‘first’ cycle was in 1993 and his first in the ‘second’ cycle was 2001). First all-time in homers, 3rd in runs, 4th in RBIs, 6th in OBP, 6th in SLG and 4th in OPS. Oh yeah, he also stole 514 bags. One of the three greatest offensive forces the game ever saw. He’s out, and it’s a shame, but honestly, this call is more an indictment of baseball than Bonds.

Edgar Martinez (35.9 percent): See the argument in Is There Room for a DH?

Alan Trammell (33.6 percent): A really good player who had four Gold Gloves and six All-Star games nods. Still, he only finished as a top-5 MVP vote getter once, only had two 20 homer seasons, only one 100 RBI effort and just three seasons of more than 85 runs scored. Really good, but the Hall of Fame is for great – even if he was a very good fielder.

Larry Walker (21.6 percent): My best guess is that he will never be voted in, not because of PED use, but because people hold Coors Field, pre-humidor, against him. He finished his career with more homers than Joe DiMaggio (383 to 361), had more RBIs than Roberto Clemente (1,311 to 1,305), had more runs scored than Barry Larkin (1,355 to 1,329), a better batting average than Manny Ramirez (.313 to .312) and a better OPS than than all but 15 other men who played the game (.965). He’s also the only man since 1930 to have three straight seasons of hitting .360 (1997-99). Based upon the numbers he’s gotta be in, but with only a handful of huge run producing seasons, only four 140 games seasons, and the Coors Field effect, he’s as close as you can get for me without being included.

Fred McGriff (20.7 percent): See the discussion Is McGriff Hall Worthy?

Dale Murphy (18.6 percent): My favorite player as a kid, and even better than his work on the field is the fact that he is an amazing human being who never once had a hint of scandal. From 1980-89 here are Murphy’s ranks among all players: 2nd in extra base hits, 2nd in HRs, 2nd in RBIs and 4th in runs. He also won 2 MVPs, was named to the All-Star team seven times and he won five Gold Gloves. One other plus. In 1980 Murphy was catcher eligible in fantasy baseball (27 games at C in ’79). He went .281-33-89-98-9. Just barely outside without a key to the door. He will have to hope the Veteran’s Committee votes him in as his 15 years on the regular ballot are up.

Mark McGwire (16.9 percent): An admitted cheater. From 1987 through his final year in the big leagues (2001), here is how McGwire ranked in a myriad of categories for that 15-year stretch: McGwire hit 580 homers, the most in baseball (Barry Bonds had 551). McGwire had 1,405 RBI, third most in baseball (Bonds had 1,494). McGwire had a .590 SLG, the third best mark in baseball (Bonds and Manny Ramirez led the way at .594). McGwire had a .985 OPS, fourth in baseball (Bonds at 1.017). I’ll leave him out since he admitted cheating, but even so, I’m inclined to cast my vote in favor of his election given his work on the field. Being honest actually works against McGwire… does that seem right to you?

Don Mattingly (13.2 percent): Mattingly had a very short peak as an elite hitter (before his back went bad), but from ’84-’89 here are his big league rankings: 3rd in AVG, 1st in 2B, 1st in EBH, 1st in RBI, 6th HR, 5th OPS. Mattingly also won nine Gold Gloves for his work at first base. A great player but he’s on the outside looking in cause his elite performance didn’t last long enough.

Sammy Sosa (12.5 percent): Everyone “knows” he cheated, but unlike McGwire he never admitted it (famously Sosa acted like he couldn’t speak English when he was called in front of Congress). From 1994-2003 here is what an “average” Sosa season looked like: .290-47-122-104-13 with a .958 OPS. Since we don’t have “proof” that he cheated, he goes in on my ballot. Remember, I’m not voting people out because we “know” a guy was dirty.

Finally, two articles.

A very informative piece from the NY Times entitled Hall of Fame Has Always Made Room for Infamy.

Jayson Stark’s Take on what the HOF has become.

By Ray Flowers

Fun With Numbers

There are only a couple of weeks left in the 2012 MLB regular season, but that doesn’t mean that there aren’t a whole host of numbers that are of interest as we head toward the playoffs.

.241: The league leading BABIP of Jered Weaver which is one point better than his teammate, Ervin Santana. While it’s not logical to think either man will replicate that number in 2013, it should be noted that Weaver has always been a pretty darn impressive in his ability to hold the hits at bay. Weaver has posted a BABIP under .280 each of the past three years, and last season that mark was a mere .250. Santana is no slouch in his own right with marks of .288 and .272 the past two years.

.323: Dan Uggla’s batting average over his last 10 games. Uggla is batting a mere .214 on the year, but he is just the #2 away from a lot of statistical milestones. Uggla has 18 homers, 68 RBIs and 78 runs scored for the Braves.

1: The number of homers that Yadier Molina needs to record his first 20 homer effort. He’s also two runs scored from his first 60 run effort and three RBIs short of his first 70 RBI campaign. He’s not Buster Posey (.333-22-93-73), but Molina is darn close as he’s also rocking an impressive .320 batting average that is fourth in the NL.

1.014: The OPS of Rickie Weeks in the month of September. Weeks has been flat out killing it the last two plus weeks. In the 15 games in the month of September he has gone deep seven times, stolen four bases, knocked in 14 runners and scored 14 times. That is the definition of elite level production folks. The .231 hitter on the season has also hit .280 over his last 69 games putting behind in the dreadful start he had to the campaign.

2: The number of homers and steals that Andrew McCutchen needs to have his first 30/20 season. Andrew’s 28 homers are already a career best, he’s one off his career best of 89 RBIs, and he just reached 100 runs scored for the first time. He’s also those two steals from a 4th straight 20 theft season and he will also set career bests in AVG (.343), OBP (.412) and SLG (.569) as his previous career bests are .286/.365/.471. However, he’s now three points behind Melky Cabrera for the NL batting title lead as he he hit .252 in August. He’s rebounded to hit .327 in September so we will see if he can catch the admitted cheater.

2.5: According to Dave Smith, founder of Retrosheet.org, teams may be paying too much attention to who they have working the 9th inning. According to his research, teams leading by one run after eight innings have won nearly 86 percent of the time. Moreover, since Mariano Rivera became the Yankees closer in 1997 the Yankees have won 97.2 percent of the games that they were leading heading into the 9th inning. The lowly Pirates, to compare, have won 94.7 percent of those games which may lead to the following contention – teams are patently overpaying their 9th inning arms because, statistically speaking, there isn’t as much difference between an elite closer and a group of solid arms working the 9th inning.

3/5: The number of homers and steals that Mike Trout needs to complete his remarkable run to 30 homers and 50 steals (he obviously has 27 HRs and 45 SBs). There have only been two such seasons in the history of baseball. Eric Davis had 37 homers and 50 steals in 1987 (he went 27/80 in 1986) while Barry Bonds, then of the Pirates before his muscles outsized his brain, had 33 homers and 52 thefts in 1990. One other note. Since I’m obnoxious and wont let things go… Trout is hitting a robust .329 on the year, including .317 in the second half, but that average has dipped to .280 over his last 43 games.

16/19: The homer and steals total of Danny Espinosa this year. He’s undergoing an MRI on his left shoulder today so it remains to be seen how much he will be able to build on those numbers. He won’t get to 20/20, but 15/15 as a second baseman ain’t all that bad now is it?

By Ray Flowers

Matt Kemp – Visions of Glory

“I believe in myself to the most,” said Matt Kemp. “I have confidence I can achieve it. I try to set my expectations as high as I can. I think I’m capable of doing it.” What is Kemp claiming he is capable of doing? No it’s nothing as grand as solving the mysteries of Stonehenge, nor is he talking about getting back together with his famous ex Rihanna. No, Matt Kemp was saying that he thinks he could go 50/50 this year – 50 homers and 50 steals.

“It speaks to his confidence and his self-awareness,” GM Ned Colletti said. “Even if he doesn’t make it, it doesn’t mean it’s wrong. It tells me about how he feels about his game. It tells me what he thinks about who he is.” (For the full report see Tim Brown’s article on Yahoo. By the way, if you want to play fantasy baseball this year, Yahoo Sports is a great place to sign up to play). I don’t know if I share Colletti’s vision here, but here are the facts as I see them.

1- Kemp is a supremely talented player who was one homer away from going 40/40 last year.

2- Kemp has nearly gone 20/20 each of the past four years (he missed out by two homers in 2008 and by one steal in 2010). The last four years he has averaged 28 homers and 32 steals. That’s nearly 30/30 for four years folks. Impressive.

3- Kemp has been as healthy as they come. Each of the past four years he has appeared in at least 155 games with between 602 and 606 at-bats in each season.

All of that information points to Kemp being an elite performer (duh). However, history is against Kemp and the potential run to 50/50. No one has ever done it. Ever. Only four men have ever gone 40/40: Jose Canseco in 1988, Barry Bonds in 1996, Alex Rodriguez in 1998 and Alfonso Soriano in 2006. Remember, Kemp was just a homer short of joining the club last season so he was close. Does that mean he could go 50/50? What would it take for Kemp to get to those numbers besides health and an unwavering need to concentrate for virtually every moment he was on the field in 2012?

Kemp hit 39 homers last year in 161 games. That equates to one homer every 4.13 games. If he appeared in 161 games again in 2012 he would need to hit a homer every 3.22 games. That’s a  significant increase an one that he wouldn’t likely to be able to maintain over the course of a season no matter how much faith he has in his abilities (his 40.5 percent fly ball rate last year was a career best but his 37.4 percent career mark is just big league average).

Kemp stole 40 bases last year in 161 games. That equates to a steal every 4.03 games. If he appeared in 161 games in 2012 he would need to steal a base every 3.22 games. That’s a rather significant increase an one that would be almost impossible to maintain. Let’s not forget that every time that Kemp goes deep that’s one more time that he doesn’t have the chance to steal a base. An increase of 10 homers might lead you to say ‘but Ray, we’re only talking about 10 plate appearances,’ an if you said that you would be right. At the same time, he’s going to need every last plate appearance if he is going to squeeze out 50 steals.

Is Kemp going to thumb his nose at history and do something that no one else in the history of the game has every done? An elite athlete with immense talent, Kemp is in the prime of his career and never misses games. On the flip side he hits in a ball yard that favors pitchers and has little protection in the Dodgers batting order. Kemp also has only one season of 30 homers in his career and he has just one effort of more than 35 steals. Clearly Kemp has full confidence in himself, but it would be foolish to think that he could reach the lofty numbers that he says he is capable of producing in 2012.

For thoughts on how Kemp is being viewed by Fleaflicker click on the link.

By Ray Flowers

Quietly Making History

Seven.

That’s the number of The Wonders of the World.

It’s also the number Mickey Mantle wore on his back.

There are seven days in a week.

Seven also happens to be the number of men who have hit 600 homers in their career.

That number will soon turn to eight.

762 – Barry Bonds

755 – Hank Aaron

714 – Babe Ruth

660 – Willie Mays

630 – Ken Griffey Jr.

626 – Alex Rodriguez

609 – Sammy Sosa

Jim Thome continues his march toward history, albeit with little of the fanfare that he deserves. Sitting on 596 home runs, Thome is about to join the elite power hitters who ever played the game. Yet no one seems to care. I find that completely vexing if for no other reason than the club is so exclusive. Add in the fact that Bonds, A-Roid and Sosa have huge clouds hanging over their heads as a results of the PED scandal, and it could legitimately be argued that only four men truly deserve to be in the group. The fifth would be Thome (there have long been whispers about Thome, but he’s never failed a test, nor is there a massive amount of evidence pointing to his guilt like there is with Bonds.
A few Thome facts…

He has hit at least 20 homers 16 times, the 4^th highest total in league history.

He has hit at least 30 homers 12 times, the 4^th highest total in league history.

He has hit at least 40 homers six times, the 5^th highest total in league history.

He has scored 100 runs eight times.

He has drive in 100 runs nine times.

He has scored more than 1,500 runs, and knocked in more than 1,600.

He’s walked more than 1,700 times in his career putting him in the top-10 all-time.

Face it, Thome has been a very good player for a very long period of time. He was never a good fielder, he lost his glove about a decade ago, but the man is one of the best in the history of the game at taking a walk and going deep. For that, he should get a lot more credit than he has received for a career that rightly should place him in the Hall of Fame one day.

And finally, how about Hideki Matsui? He recently joined the 500-HR club. The majority of his bombs were hit in Japan (332), but Matsui still became the first player to reach the total 500 homer total in a career split between Japan and the States. Congrats

By Ray Flowers

Bonds, Ruth and Bautista?

photo © 2010 Matt Pirecki | more info (via: Wylio)

The sun will rise in the morning, Raquel Welch will always be beautiful, and Jose Bautista will be the best hitter in baseball. Wait, what?

I’ve been a broken record for 12 months now. I keep saying “Jose Bautista can’t possibly keep this up,” yet week after week he does. It’s gotten to such a ridiculous point that people are now claiming that Bautista is not only a top-10 fantasy performer but that he is the best hitter in the game right now. Should we replace Lou Gehrig in the photo to the left and put Jose Bautista next to Babe Ruth?

2004-2009 SEASONS
During this period, Bautista’s season bests were 16 homers, 63 RBI, 75 runs scored and a .254 average. For the six years his slash line was .238/.329/.400. During that time the league average as better at .270/.340/.434.

2010 SEASON
.260-54-124-109 with a .995 OPS
Bautista led baseball in homers, was third in RBI and sixth in runs scored. He also became the fourth hitter in baseball history to have a season of 50 homers, 120 RBI, 100 runs, 100 walks and 35 doubles (the others are Babe Ruth, Hack Wilson and Luis Gonzalez).

2011 SEASON
.370-16-27-35-4 with a 1.365 OPS
His effort thus far is simply stunning. Bautista has been so stupendous, and honestly that word doesn’t do his performance justice, that he is on pace to hit hit .370 with 61 homers, 104 RBI, 135 runs scored and 15 steals.

HISTORICAL SIGNIFICANCE

Bautista’s work in 2011 is so absurd that it’s akin to being hit square in the face with a cast iron skillet.

(1) Bautista is hitting .370 and is on pace for more than 60 homers. Since 1940, only one player has hit .350 with 50 homers in a season. The year was 1957 and that hitter was Mickey Mantle (.365 with 52 homers).

(2) Bautista has an OBP of .516. In the history of baseball there have only been 10 seasons that can match that (minimum of 502 plate appearances). Think about that. Of all the players who have every played, there have only been 10 seasons better than the level that Bautista is currently getting on base.

(3) Bautista has an .849 SLG. In the history of the game only Barry Bonds 2001 season of .863 is better.

(4) Bautista has a 1.365 OPS. In the history of baseball there have only been four seasons that ended with marks higher than that – three by Barry Bonds and one by Babe Ruth.

As much as you all love Bautista, there simply can’t be a single person out there with half a brain that can legitimately claim that Bautista’s name should be mentioned in the same breath as Mickey Mantle, Barry Bonds and Babe Ruth. We can agree on that, right? Come on, be honest. Do you really, if you search deep into the recesses of your being, think that Bautista deserves to have his name mentioned amongst the best hitters that the game of baseball has every produced before?

PERSONAL REVIEW

I’ve written and talked about how preposterous the performance of Bautista is going back to the start of last season. Here are the bullet points.

Bautista has never, not one single time, hit even .265 in a season. NEVER.
Bautista has never, not one single time, posted an OBP of .380 in a season.

As much as we want to say that he’s changed his swing and just figured everything out, we still have six years of below average work and one and a quarter seasons of excellence to review. Don’t forget that Bautista owns a rather average set of career numbers.

In his career his slash line is .250/.351/.472
The average player during his career has posted a line of .267/.337/.426.

PREDICTION

Can he keep up his current pace? I can say with 100 percent certainty that he cannot.

There is no way he hits .370, .350, or even .330. Players just don’t add .100 points to their career batting average, it just doesn’t happen.

Is he going to finish with an OBP, SLG and OPS in the top-10 all-time for a single season? Please.

The question is – how much will he fall? Secondarily, will he be a top-5 performer, a top-10 performer, a top-25 performer? That’s where things get a bit trickier.

Put your thinking cap on and be honest. If I told you that Player A, through a quarter of a season, was producing career bests in AVG/OBP/SLG, home run rate, steal rate, walk rate, K-rate and BABIP, wouldn’t your inclination be to be wary of that level of production continuing?

What if I told you he was hitting .110 points better than ever before?

Or how about if he was on pace to bump his OBP by .138 points?

What about if his SLG was .233 points clear of any previous season?

What about if he was running so frequently that he was on pace to basically double his career best effort?

You’d tell me there was no chance that Player A would be able to keep that up. Given that, why is everyone so willing to throw out logic and common sense when it comes to Jose Bautista?

By Ray Flowers

Decisions Contemplated and Made

Why can’t one of the leagues all-time great sluggers find a job, and have the Rockies pulled the string on a series of moves that will preclude the club from being a contender for the next decade?

The Plight of Jim Thome

Jim Thome is a masher of historic proportions. He has 589 homers, the 8th most in big league history, and though he hit “only” 25 homers last season that was in a mere 276 at-bats. Given that pace, if he had come to the plate for 500 at-bats he would have hit 45 homers. Clearly the old man, he’s 39, can still mash it. Thome was exceptionally effective against righties last season hitting .302 with 19 homers and a 1.154 OPS in just 189 at-bats, a pace of 50 homers per 500 at-bats. Honestly, he was every bit the equal of Albert Pujols and last season when facing righties.

So where does all that leave him for 2011? It leaves him unemployed. The Twins remain interested in bringing back the slugger, but Thome is looking for one last substantial paycheck after playing last season for $1.7 million. He won’t be giving the Twins a hometown discount to return. This has left the door open for someone to capitalize, and it looks like the Rangers have come out guns a blazin’. I have a hard time figuring out where the at-bats would come from though. Here is what I see.

The addition of Adrian Beltre to play third base moves Michael Young to DH. Young could find at-bats literally at every position on the infield (including first base), but for now Young is slotted as the primary DH. That leaves first base in the hands of Mitch Moreland, and with rumors floating around that the Rangers wouldn’t include him in a deal to get Matt Garza, I would be hard pressed to think they really want to platoon Moreland in 2011 even if he did struggle in limited work against lefties last year (.200 in 20 ABs). And you can forget about David Murphy getting 400 at-bats unless someone is hurt. The Rangers seemingly don’t have a spot in the every day lineup for Thome – though that doesn’t mean he couldn’t match last years total with the Twins of 276 at-bats. What I do know is that if he is added to the club, the Rangers would be forced to move people around a lot, and that isn’t an ideal situation for a team with championship aspirations. Having that flexibility with positions is wonderful, but players like to find their comfort zones and really don’t want to be in and out of the lineup, using a different glove, every day.

Have the Rockies Been Financially Wise?

I don’t often spend time talking about baseball and money, though I did last month in The End of Baseball? I’m not going to bash the Yankees and the Red Sox today (for a change). Instead, I want to touch on the business model that the Rockies are currently operating under.

The Rockies have signed the two cornerstone’s of their franchise to deals worth more than $214 million as Troy Tulowitzki signed a 7-year, $134.5 million contract extension while Carlos Gonzalez re-upped for 7-years and $80 million. That is a whopping amount of cash which raises the very real possibility that the Rockies may not be able to put forth a contender for the next decade.

Last year the Rockies spent $84 million on their payroll. Though it will take a few years for the massive dollars of Tulo and CarGo to really kick in, the duo will be paid about $30 million a year over the life of their contracts. That number rises even further as the deals reach the later years as they will make $36 million in 2015, $37 million in 2016 and $40 million in 2017. Even if the club raises the payroll to $100 million in three to five years as expected, their duo will be sucking up nearly 40 percent of the payroll. To draw a parallel, the Yankees would have had to of spent $83 million on Alex Rodriguez and CC Sabathia to have devoted 40 percent of their team salary to two guys in 2010 (they actually made about $57 million). The bottom line is that you simply cannot have 40 percent of your payroll invested in just two players – it just doesn’t work. If either player is injured, or fails to perform like they did in 2010, the Rockies will be sunk. The reason is that so much of their resources are tied up in two players that they will be unable to substantially increase their payroll if they have other holes to fill on the roster. Will they be able to sign that veteran backup for $4 million, or will they have to go with the $500,000 youngster with only 112 big league at-bats? Will they be able to bring in a setup man of note if they have only $900,000 to spend on a bullpen arm? Of course they wont.

I wish the Rockies all the luck in the world. Denver is a magnificent town, that ballpark is a jewel, and it seems like Tulo and Gonzalez both have a shot to be All-Star’s for the duration of their deals. Still, for a team that will never be able to financially compete with the big boys I think this was a move that they may end up regretting. Take it from a San Francisco Giants’ fan that watched his team, for years, be hamstring by the contract of superstar Barry Bonds – one major contract can be tough to overcome when you don’t have endless resources, let alone two.

By Ray Flowers

HOF: The Case for Bagwell

With the Hall of Fame vote coming up (the results will be released on January 6th), I thought it might be nice to link to the pieces I wrote last year regarding a handful of players that were up for consideration but who failed to be enshrined. Here are those links.

Edgar Martinez – Is There Room for a DH?
HOF – Tim Raines .
Is McGriff Hall Worthy ?
HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood ?
HOF: Who am I ?

In addition, here is my recap on how the voting actually turned out last year in HOF: What Should Have Been.

As for the vote this year, there seems to be growing support for the candidacy of Jeff Bagwell. Should be be enshrined in the Hall of Fame?

PRO

(1) Bagwell spent his entire 15 year career with the Astros. I know this really doesn’t matter, but in the world of money grubbing by players you have to tip your hat to Bagwell for this accomplishment of staying with one club.

(2) He was the 1991 NL Rookie of the Year, and in 1994 he was named NL MVP. He also finished in the top-10 in MVP voting five times on his way to 2.89 Career MVP Shares, the 35th highest mark in league history.

(3) He was named to four All-Star teams.

(4) He had 1,529 RBI – 45th all-time – and he also scored 1,517 runs, good for 62nd all-time. No player eligible for the Hall of Fame with 1,500 runs and 1,500 RBI isn’t in the Hall.

(5) He finished his career with a .408 OBP, the 40th best mark ever.

(6) He finished his career with a .540 SLG, the 35th best mark ever.

(7) He finished his career with a .948 OPS, the 21st best mark ever. This is a simply stupendous accomplishment for a guy who spent so much of his career hitting in the Astrodome.

(8) Bagwell led the league in runs three times – with a high of 152. In fact, he scored 143 and 152 runs in 1999-2000, and amongst first basemen only he and Lou Gehrig ever had back-to-back seasons of 140+ runs in the history of baseball.

(9) Bagwell hit .297 with 449 homers, 1,529 RBI, 1,517 runs and an OPS of .948. In the history of baseball, only 10 men have reached each of those totals in their career, and oh what a list it is: Stan Musial, Barry Bonds, Mel Ott, Alex Rodriguez, Babe Ruth, Manny Ramirez, Jimmie Foxx, Lou Gehrig, Ted Williams and Mr. Bagwell.

CON

(1) He spent his entire career with the Astros. Did anyone notice how great he was since they never saw him play in person or on television?

(2) The strike in 1994 ruined what was shaping up to be a historic season. Bagwell hit .368 with 39 homers, 116 RBI and 104 runs scored… in 110 games. Along the way he led the league in RBI and runs, not to mention SLG (.750) and OPS (1.201). If he had kept that pace up over 160 games he would have produced a line of .368-57-169 with 151 runs scored. If he had produced a season for the ages like that, would more people have taken notice of him?

(3) Despite his tremendous work, other than 1994, was he ever even considered the best first baseman in baseball with players like Fred McGriff, Mo Vaughn, Mark McGwire, Rafael Palmeiro, Carlos Delgado and Todd Helton around?

VERDICT

Bagwell should be a lock. In addition to being a tremendous person and teammate, he was also a dynamic player. His career totals stack up well against pretty much any man who ever played first base, and it’s not his fault there were so many tremendous hitting first basemen in the game when he played. Bagwell was also widely regarded as one of the best base runners in baseball in his career, even with less than scintillating speed, and that reputation should augment the glowing numbers. The Hall of Fame candidacy of many players has been exaggerated of late, but if Mr. Bagwell is enshrined the voting body will be making a decision that will undoubtedly stand the test of time.

By Ray Flowers

Nirvana

In the grand scheme of things a championship in sports means nothing, and the life of one person is also rendered insignificant when placed in the context of the world. But I gotta tell you, in this corner of the sphere that we all inhabit, there have been few things that can rival what has occurred over the last 24 hours.

I’ve never been married or ever welcomed a child into this world, so I don’t have that frame of reference to draw upon, but I can tell you this – in the pantheon of events that have shaped my life, this event ranks near the top of the list.

Willie May, Willie McCovey, Orlando Cepeda, Juan Marichal, Barry Bonds – some of the greatest players ever to done a uniform – were never able to bring a World Championship to San Francisco. In more recent years players such as Jeff Leonard, Will Clark, Kevin Mitchell, John Burkett, John Beck and Jeff Kent were also unable to bring the World Series trophy home to San Francisco.

On Monday night, November 1st, 2010, that all changed.

The names will likely be forgotten in a few years if you aren’t a Giants fan. Honestly, some of the players might not even be at the forefront of your mind right now (Sergio Romo, Travis Ishikawa, Javier Lopez, Jeremy Affeldt, Mike Fontenot, Nate Schierholtz), but isn’t that the wonder of baseball? The sport is more than one great player leading a team to victory through sheer will and determination. The grind of six months of a regular season an another month for the playoffs offers the chance for numerous players to make history or to step to the fore at a moments notice. Cody Ross? I mean seriously, unless you were a Marlins’ fan or a fantasy baseball addict, did you even know who he was prior to the postseason? Edgar Renteria? Wasn’t he washed up and heading off into retirement after the worst season of his career (.276-3-22)? My goodness, he didn’t even start the first five games of the playoffs for the Giants. But that was the beauty of the 2010 Giants. They may not have been a team filled with “names,” but they had timely hitting, excellent work behind the bench by Bruce Bochy, and some of the best pitching the game has seen in this century.

As for me, the day after is surreal. For every year of my life that I have consciously been aware of the game of baseball, I have lived and died with the Giants. I’ve lost sleep worrying about games, I’ve skipped out on dates with pretty ladies to watch games, and I’ve nearly given myself an ulcer with each gut wrenching failure I have endured along with the club. So when Brian Wilson threw that final strike last night, what was my response? Did I jump up and down? Did I scream at the top of my lungs? Did I get plowed to the point that I forgot my own name? The truth is I didn’t do any of those things. Instead, I looked over to my parents, both of whom who have been there right with me nearly every step of the way, and simply smiled and said “wow.”

It may not have been a celebration for the ages in the Flowers’ household, but I can tell you this – other than those major life events, like my parents wedding, my brother and I being born, my brother having two wonderful children of his own, it was one of the happiest moments of our lives.

Thank you San Francisco Giants. It was a long time in coming, but as I’ve written before, it was all worth it as I can now walk down the street, #1 finger held high in the air, with a huge smile on my face. We, and yes I’m including myself and all the Giants’ fans in the world, WE are World Champions.

By Ray Flowers