History Comes in Three's

Ichiro beats you to death with singles, Bautista with his blasts, and the San Francisco Giants pitcher’s are beating down every offense they face.

Ichiro Makes History

Ichiro Suzuki racked up his 200th hit today. There are a whole host of interesting tidbits around that effort, and here are a few.

* He has 200 hits in all 10 of his big league seasons
* He is the first player to ever have 10-straight 200 hits seasons.
* Only Ichiro and Pete Rose have had ten 200 hit seasons.
* Since the 2001 season began he has 2,229 hits. Obviously that’s an average of nearly 230 hits a year(with more than a week left in the season, he’ll clearly push that mark even higher).
* Since 2001, no other big leaguer has more than 1,906 hits – Derek Jeter.

Hats off to you Ichiro.

Jose Bautista Hits #50

Jose Bautista hit his 50th homer today, a fact that I spoke to as a forgone conclusion earlier this week in History is at Hand. Here are some tidbits surrounding the remarkable achievement from the man that hit a total of 43 homers the past three years.

* Bautista is the 26th player ever to hit 50 homers in a season.
* He has hit all 50 of his homer to left or left center.
* He has hit 31 homers at home.
* He has hit 26 homers since the All-Star break. Remember, he had never before hit even 17 in a season.

Let’s put those numbers in perspective.

Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Frank Robinson, Mike Schmidt, Hank Aaron, Ryan Howard and Barry Bonds never hit 50 homers in a season (Bonds is cheating – how apropos – as he hit 73 one year though he never actually had a season of between 50-72 homers).

Bautista has 31 homers at home. Here is a list of players who haven’t hit 31 homers this season no matter the locale: Ryan Howard (30), Prince Fielder (30), Mark Teixeira (30), Adrian Gonzalez (29), Matt Holliday (27) and Troy Tulowitzki (26) to name a few.

Here is a list of players who haven’t hit 26 homers, Bautista’s total in the second half in a mere 63 games: David Wright (25), Ryan Zimmerman (25), Jayson Werth (25), Alex Rodriguez (25), Matt Kemp (23), Ryan Braun (23) and Andre Ethier (23).

Yeah, I just threw up a little bit in my mouth too.

One last thought. Ichiro had his 200th hit, and Bautista hit his 50th bomb — in the same game. Don’t you love the symmetry of that?

Giants’ Starters are Aces

The Giants are a half game out of first place behind the San Diego Padres, but the blame for rests solely on the offense and not the dominating pitchers that the team has been running out there.

* The Giants have allowed three of fewer runs in 16-straight games, and that ties single season league record, since 1920 when the “live ball” was introduced. The other two teams to go 16 consecutive games were the 1972 Indians and the 1981 Athletics (the 1942-43 Reds did have a stretch of 20-games).

* The club hasn’t allowed more than four runs in 21-straight, and that is tied for the fifth longest in the live ball era, and the longest streak since the ’81 A’s. The record is 25-straight games by the 1942-43 Cubs, with the single season mark being 23 games by the 1972 Cubs.

* Since August 28th the starting rotation has posted a 2.06 ERA and held batters to a .191 batting average against.

* Over their last 10 starts the rotation has a 1.32 ERA.

So how in the world are the Giants 5-5 in their last 10 games? The blame rests squarely on an offense that he been shut out four times in 10 games. The offense has also produced one or zero runs in eight of the last 13 games.

One last note about the Giants.
They are a major league best 74-22 when they score three or more runs.

By Ray Flowers

The HOF and Ubaldo Jimenez

On Sunday Andre Dawson was officially inducted into the Hall of Fame. An eight time All-Star who is one of only three men in big league history to hit 400 homers while also stealing at least 300 bases (Barry Bonds and Willie Mays are the others), Dawson also has one of the worst OBP (.323) of any player in the Hall of Fame. In fact, it’s the worst mark of any outfielder enshrined at Cooperstown, .020 points below the .343 mark of Lou Brock. Should Dawson have been elected to the HOF? I tackled that very question in The Case of Andre Dawson. If that piece doesn’t cause you some pause about whether or not the athletic outfielder should have been enshrined, perhaps Dawson vs. Alomar will prove to you, once an for all, that not only does Roberto Alomar deserve to be in the Hall of Fame but that Dawson’s credentials might be a little thin.

I actually wrote up a series of piece on players who were eligible for induction into the Hall of Fame this year, and here are those links:

Edgar Martinez – Is there Room for a DH?
HOF: Tim Raines.
Is McGriff Hall Worthy?
HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood?
HOF: Who Am I?

Any here are my final thoughts where I discussed the 2010 voting results.

HOF: What Should Have Been.

Has anyone pointed you toward one of the best sites on the internet? No, I’m not talking about something that has porn in it, you certainly already have your favorites bookmarked for your adult entertainment, or BaseballGuys.com (since you’ve already found it), I’m referring to Rumorzone.com. It’s a collaborative effort from Fanball.com, and we’re tracking all the latest rumors in the world of sports for the four major sports at that location (MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL). Don’t forget to bookmark it.

Ubaldo Jimenez is awful. There, I said it, and don’t for a second try and tell me you weren’t thinking the same thing. On June 7th, a mere eight starts ago, Ubaldo had a 0.93 ERA. Heck, on June 18th it was still 1.15. However, the past six outings haven’t looked anything like his first 14 trips to the hill. Here are the numbers:

7.64 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 8.73 K/9, 5.18 BB/9, 1.68 K/BB

The ERA is horrific, the WHIP is terrible, and that walk rate is godawful leading to a decidedly sub par K/BB mark that is well below the big league average of 2.10.

So what happened? It’s called regression people, ever heard of it? Did you really drink so much of that Ubaldo Cool Aid that you actually thought he was going to challenge Bob Gibson’s NL ERA mark of 1.12? Come on now. Did you think he was gonna keep his ERA under 2.00 all year long? I got news for you, that’s only happened twice in baseball since the 21st century began (Pedro Martinez had a 1.74 mark in 2000 and Roger Clemens posted a 1.87 mark in 2005). Again, you kid right?

The truth is that Ubaldo is simply returning to the level of “dominance” instead of the “historic” pace that he flashed early on. He still has a 2.75 ERA, his WHIP is just 1.12, he has nearly a K per inning (120 in 134.1) and he is still 15-2. How rare is that combination? If he maintains that pace for 34 starts this season we’d be looking at something like 25 wins, 200 Ks and a 2.75 ERA. How many pitchers have reached all three of those levels since 2000? It’s a small group of — zero. If we go back to 1990 there still isn’t one member of the group. How about 1980? Still none. You have to go all the way back to to Ron Guidry in 1978 to find a pitcher who reach all three milestones (25-3, 1.74 ERA, 248 Ks).

The bottom line with Ubaldo is that you should cut the guy some slack. Still, I hope you listened when I suggested you sell high on the flamethrower from Colorado because that window for peak value in a trade has been closed completely.

By Ray Flowers

Who Am I?

From time to time I play this game to see just how keen your wits are when it comes to identifying players based solely on their numbers and accomplishments. Let’s see how long it takes you to guess who the player is this time.

* I’ve made five All-Star teams.

* I’ve never won the MVP award, but I’ve finished in the top-7 in voting on four different occasions.

* I get on base with the best of them. I own a career OBP of .404, the 49th best mark in league history, and I’ve been a top-10 finisher in the category on 10 occasions. To compare, Adam Dunn has never bettered a .400 mark (2002) despite owning a career mark of .382.

* I’m a fair power hitter as well having finished with a top-10 slugging percentage 10 times. My season best mark is .677 – a mark that led the AL in 2002. My career SLG is .556 which places me 23rd all-time. Only once has Jason Bay bettered that mark (.559 in 2005).

* Because of my ability to get on base and to drive the ball deep, I’ve always been a tremendous OPS option. Five times I’ve posted a mark above a grand, and I’m sporting a career mark of .960. Only once in his career has David Wright bettered that mark (.963 in 2007).

* I’ve gotten on base so many times that I’m one run from 1,500 in my career. I’ve also pounded the ball enough to record 1,584 RBI meaning I will soon become the 34th player in big league history with 1,500 runs and 1,500 RBI in a career.

* This last one may give me away. I’ve hit 570 home runs in my career, the 11th best mark in baseball history. I’m also fourth all-time in homers by a left-handed batter. Considering the questions surrounding Mark McGwire, Alex Rodriguez, Sammy Sosa and Barry Bonds, some might argue that I’m one of the top five or so home run hitters in big league history. I’ve also been very consistent with at least 30 homers in 9-straight season (1996-2004). After an injured induced dip to seven in 2004, I then went on to hit at least 34 in each of the next three seasons meaning that for 12-straight healthy seasons I never once failed to go deep 30 times.

Who am I?

I’m the Twins’ Jim Thome.

Does Thome deserve to be in the HOF given those qualifications? Here are some thoughts on the subject.

(1) As I mentioned above, no one has ever connected Thome’s name to performance enhancing drugs. He’s country hardball strong, and as such there has never been a reason to think he needed steroids to help him to power the ball into the bleachers. It would be pretty tough to keep him out of the Hall if he ends his career with nearly 600 homers.

(2) Thome is viewed by many as a DH, though that negates his work in the field entirely. In 2,333 career games Thome has appeared at first base 1,102 times, and 492 times at third base (yes he played third at the start of his career). All told, he’s been on the field using his glove more than 68 percent of the time. Clearly the designated hitter role has helped to prolong his career, but less than a third of the time he has only been a hitter and not a fielder (I gave my thoughts on whether or not the designated hitter should be considered for Cooperstown in Is There Room for a DH?).

(3) it’s not exactly scientific to merely compare numbers without context, but I’m gonna do it anyway. Let’s compare this slugging lefty to another who is already in the Hall of Fame in Reggie Jackson. Here is each players performance per 162 games.

J.Thome:.277-40-110-104-1 with a .960 OPS
Jackson: .262-32-98-89-13 with a .846 OPS

Pretty shocking how much better Thome’s numbers are isn’t it?

I mentioned McGwire earlier in this piece, so why don’t we compare him to Thome given that both hitters were very similar in their approach and talents.

J.Thome: .277-40-110-104-1 with a .960 OPS
McGwire: .263-50-122-101-1 with a .982 OPS

Pretty darn close eh? By the way, you can read more about my thoughts on McGwire in HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood?

So should Jim Thome get more respect than he usually does? Unequivocally the answer is yes. Should he be elected to the HOF? Based on the numbers he has produced I can’t see how one could make a valid argument that he doesn’t belong in the Hall.

The Greatest CF Ever?

The Kid always had that swagger. He had the smile, wore his hat backwards, and had one of the smoothest swings in the history of the game. He defined a generation of ballplayers, often being the yin to Barry Bonds yang, and the end result will be his enshrinement in the Hall of Fame in five years. Of course, I’m talking about Ken Griffey Jr.

My first recollection of Griffey isn’t a homer or a catch to rob one, but going to the local ball card shop with my brother and friend in 1989. My brother and I each bought two Upper Deck Griffey cards, while our buddy bought 20 of them at $2 a piece (no joke). I’ve since lost touch with that friend, but hopefully he hung on to all those cards because he’d have made a pretty penny (at the lower end I think they go for $40-50). Why did my friend grab so many rookies of Griffey? He clearly knew what he was doing – slightly ahead of me and my cheapskate ways at the time (I think I bought two boxes of Score cards instead – and that wasn’t a great choice in retrospect).

However, my greatest memories of Griffey obviously emanate not from losing a small fortune, but from his work on the diamond. You’ll see the numbers listed everywhere you read about Griffey the next few days, so I’ll just list them quickly.

630 homers, 5th all-time
1,836 RBI, 14th all-time
1,662 runs, 31st all-time
1,192 extra base hits, 6th all-time
5,271 total bases, 12th all-time

* He was named to 13 All-Star teams including every year from 1990-2000 – the entire decade.

* He won the MVP award in 1997, unanimously. He was awarded 3.20 Career MVP Shares, 27th best of all-time.

* Here might be the most amazing part of the whole deal; Griffey wasn’t just a hitter, he was a sublime fielder who 10-straight Gold Gloves, one for each year of the decade of the 1990′s. Think about that. He won a Gold Glove ever year of the 90′s. Only Roberto Clemente (12) and Willie Mays (12) won more amongst outfielders.

Injuries curtailed Griffey’s career prematurely, and people who only remember the broken down player of the past few years are doing this man a disservice. Just how great was he during his prime? From 1996-1999, there wasn’t a finer player in the game. In that four year period of time he was the MVP once, finished fourth twice, and was 10th on the other occasion. As for the numbers, he never hit fewer than 48 homers, knocked in fewer than 134 runs, scored fewer than 120 or stole fewer than 15 bases in any of those four years. Griffey is therefore the only man in the history of the game to go 48-134-120-15 in 4-straight seasons – and he also won a Gold Glove every season to boot.

But beyond the greatness of his two-way play, beyond the childlike enthusiasm and beyond the fact that he was never embroiled in any off-field issues of any kind until the recent ludicrous story that he was sleeping during a game, there is one salient fact that sets him apart from everyone else he played against – not once has his name ever been linked to performance enhancing drugs.

Now I have no inside knowledge, I wasn’t in the locker room with any of these guys and I don’t share beers with them on a Friday night, so like the rest of you it’s all rumor and supposition about what went on behind closed doors. But as stated, what we do know is that Griffey’s name was never linked to PED’s. Therefore, he just might be the only slugger of his era whose exploits aren’t thought to have been chemically enhanced. Given that, there is nothing to stop Griffey from entering the Hall of Fame on the first ballot.

So, was Griffey the best center fielder in the history of the game? It’s pretty difficult to think that Griffey was as good an all-around player as Willie Mays, and he clearly lacked the outward passion of Ty Cobb, and it’s not like there aren’t two all-time greats who roamed centerfield for the Yankees in Joe DiMaggio and Mickey Mantle. In the end the question will continue to be debated, but I feel completely comfortable in stating that Ken Griffey Jr. was the greatest all-around center fielder this scribe ever had the privilege of watching play the game of baseball, and while that might not mean a thing to Mr. Griffey, it means the world to me.

By Ray Flowers

How About That: Hitters

I’m busy as hell today running all over the place making sure everything for the National Fantasy Baseball Championship is in place for the event to officially begin late tonight (all the players in the database on the correct teams, etc.). Still, I didn’t want to leave you hanging without an update, so here is a quick listing of a few interesting facts that might pique your attention.

* If we remove all 135 hits that Barry Bonds produced in 2004, give him an 0-for-135, his OBP for that season still would have been .391 – a mark that would have been good enough for 12th in the NL in 2009 (Bonds produced a .609 OBP in ’04, the best mark in history).

* There are only three men who have ever had a season of 20 homers and 60 steals. They are Eric Davis in 1986 (27 HR, 80 SB), Joe Morgan in 1973 (26 HR, 67 SB) and 1976 (27 HR, 60 SB) and Rickey Henderson in 1985 (24 HR, 72 SB) 1986 (28 HR, 87 SB) and 1990 (28 HR, 65 SB).

* In 1982 Rickey Henderson set a major league record with 130 SB. He also set the ML record with 42 caught stealing that year as well.

* Jim Rice could really hit, but the hard shots he hit, combined with his cement feet, led to a ton of double plays in his career. Rice is the all-time single season leader with 36 GIDP in 1984. He is also second on the list with 35 in 1985.

* The all-time record for hit-by-pitch in a single season is 51, held by Hughie Jennings in 1896 (the “modern” record is held by Ron Hunt with 50 in 1971). Jennings owns three of the top-4 seasons ever, and is #1 all-time with 287 HBP in his career, two more than Craig Biggio.

* Ty Cobb had seven months with 50+ hits, with a high of 67 twice (July 1912, July 1922).

* Ichiro hit .372 in 2004 on his way to a single season record 262 hits. Even more amazing was the fact that he hit .429 after the All-Star break (143 for 333).

* Nap Lajoie is officially credited with the highest single season batting average of the modern era at .426 in 1901. However the all-time leader is actually Hugh Duffy who hit .440 in 1894.

* Poor Randy Tate. In 1975 he went the entire season without a hit, 41 at-bats in total (with 22 Ks). He never played again making him the all-time leader for most career ABs without ever earning a hit.

* In 1894 the Baltimore Orioles team hit .343…and finished 2nd to the Philadelphia A’s who hit .349 (the league hit .309).

* Ever heard of Bill Bergen? From 1901-1911 he was a major league catcher who couldn’t hit at all. Of all hitters who have ever had at least 3,000 plate appearances, Bergen’s .170 batting average is the worst. How the hell did he earn 3,028 ABs with that average? He must have been one hell of a game manager.

* Ken Boyer hit 24 homers in each of four straight seasons (1961-64). If you think that is impressive, give Adam Dunn’s line a look as he hit 40 homers for 4-straight years (2005-08). In 204 he hit 46, and in 2009 he hit 38, so for that six year span of 2004-2009 Dunn averaged 41 homers a year.

By Ray Flowers

Who Am I?

Who Am I?

From time to time I like to play this game of leading you down the Yellowbrick road to the Wizard of Oz (here is a link to my most recent venture in the world of Who am I?). With that brief intro, let’s get right to it.

* I made five All-Star teams (1993-97).

* I hit .301 in my career. Only 192 men who have ever played that game have posted a higher mark (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).

* I didn’t reach 2,500 career hits, but I did smack 2,468 of them, the 96th best mark ever.

* I didn’t reach 1,500 career runs but I did stroll across home plate 1,494 times, good enough for 68th all-time.

* I didn’t reach 500 doubles, but I did slug 495 two baggers, the 55th best mark ever.

* I knocked in 1,704 runs, the 22nd best mark of all-time.

* I had one of the best eyes at the dish – ever. In fact, I often was picked on by the media because I took too many pitches. As a result of my approach I walked 1,667 times, the 9th most ever, and that helped me to post an OBP of .419 (21st all-time).

* Because of all my extra base hits (26th all-time with 1,028) I was able to post the 25th best SLG ever at .555.

* Not surprisingly, since I’m 21st all-time in OBP and 25th in SLG, my overall OPS of .974 is top notch, 15th best ever actually.

* I was the AL MVP twice (1993-94).

* I have 4.79 Win Shares, the 13th highest mark in the history of the game thanks to those two wins, and six overall top-5 MVP finishes.

* I hit 521 homers in my career, the 18th best mark of all-time.

* I share the same name as a slugger who once hit 10 home runs in just 20 at-bats over six games in May, 1968.

Who am I? I’m Frank Thomas.

The reason I decided to write about Thomas should hopefully be obvious after reading all those numbers above (not to mention the fact that he officially retired from baseball on Thursday last week). The bottom line with Frank is that he was one of the most fearsome sluggers the game has ever seen – period. Let me place all of the above numbers into perspective.

How many players in history have hit .300 with 500 homers, 1,700 RBI, 1,400 runs and an OPS of .950? The answer is six, and obviously Frank is one of them. The others, well to say that they are some of the all-time greats is an understatement: Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, Jimmie Foxx, Babe Ruth and Ted Williams.

Not just a “numbers” guy, Frank was exceedingly well respected in his career as evidenced by his dual MVPs and the 13th most Win Shares of all-time, and that should clearly have led to some “love” for the guy from the fans and the media, but all many seem to remember is the lumbering injury prone hitter of the past few years.

As a counter argument to his potential election to the Hall of Fame you’ll get the argument that he wasn’t very athletic and that he was a poor defensive player. I can’t refute that in the least. However, the totality of his offensive work was so spectacular, remember the group of six referenced above, that if Frank is kept out of the HOF they should revoke the credentials of the voting body because if the voters don’t put a check in the box next to his name they clearly have no inkling of an understanding of what it means to be a dynamic offensive weapon, and therefore they have no business determining who is immortalized in the Hall of Fame.

By Ray Flowers

Context Revisited

A while back I addressed the fact that a ton of people who analyze the game of baseball, mostly those who work for big/fancy corporations, either (A) have no idea what they are talking about, or (B) think that you are so stupid that you couldn’t possibly understand the nuances of analysis so they just continue to spew the same, slightly meaningful crap, as everyone else. Alas, it really isn’t that difficult to place things in the proper context – all you need to do is to apply a little elbow grease. After I re-reading that previous piece entitled Some People Never Learn, I thought I would expand upon the idea of context with a few more concrete examples of why it is so vital to do place whatever you are analyzing on some continuum to root it in the real world.

Which player would you prefer to have on your team?

Carl Yastrzemski who hit .301 in 1968 or Glenn Wright who hit .321 in 1930?

If that was all the information you had at your disposal you would clearly answer Wright since he hit .020 points higher, but where is the context? There is none. We could add the context of opportunity, i.e. at-bats, and try to derive an answer. Alas, that context still says the option to choose would be Wright given that he hit .020 points higher in only seven fewer at-bats than the 539 that Yaz racked up in ’68. However, another level of context would be to discuss the era, or the level of competition that they faced in their respective season. We could talk about how there were no players of color playing in 1930, or the fact that teams traveled by bus and train and not airplanes, but those things aren’t really quantifiable since we would be dealing in the realm of supposition. So, why don’t we just compare each batter’s batting average directly to those who were also playing at the same time.

Yaz hit .301 in ’68, the Year of the Pitcher, and the AL batted just .230.
Wright hit .321 in ’30, and that year the NL batted, hold on to your hats, .303!

To arrive at how each player did in relation to their competition, you simply divide the players batting average by the league average to come up with an adjusted total.

Yaz: .301 / .230 = 1.31
Wright: .321 / .303 = 1.06

So what this context shows is that despite batting .020 points higher according to their raw batting averages, Wright’s batting average was only 6% better than the league average in 1930 whereas Yaz’s piddly .301 average, which led the AL by the way, was a full 31% better than the league average. Given that context, which batter would you have wanted for your hypothetical team?

And that’s the trick of context. Numbers are just numbers without context, and far too often people try to compare players of different era’sby merely looking at raw numbers without any deference being paid to context. Here are two concrete examples

(1) Shoeless Joe Jackson hit all of 54 home runs in his career. Willie Mays hit 660 home runs in his career. So Mays was the better power hitter, right? Not so fast. Partly because of huge disadvantage in batting average (.356 to .302), Mays finished his career with an OPS that was just .001 point higher than Jackson at .941. In addition, if we place each batter’s effort in context by comparing his effort against the league during the years that he played, we find out that Mays’ adjusted OPS says he was 56% better than his level of competition. As for Jackson, playing in the so-called dead-ball era, his adjusted OPS was 70% better than his competition. Ergo, according to this context, Jackson was actually a better offensive weapon as measured by OPS, and in fact by a rather large percentage, over Mays.

(2) Let’s line up home run king Barry Bonds with home run king Babe Ruth. In terms of raw numbers Barry Bonds out-homered Ruth 762 to 714. However, if we use context, who was the better home run hitter?

In 1919 Ruth hit 29 home runs. No one else in the AL hit more than 10.
In 1920 Ruth hit 54 home runs. No one else hit more than 19.
In 1921 Ruth hit 59 home runs. No one else hit more than 24.

I could do on, but the point is pretty obvious. Ruth wasn’t just winning the home run title, he was more than doubling his next closest competitor in some years. For all the home runs he hit, Bonds only lead the league in home runs twice (Ruth did 12 times), and in those two seasons Bonds led the league by a mere six home runs (46 to 40) and nine (73 to 64).

So the next time someone just starts throwing raw numbers out there when they are making a Hall of Fame argument take a moment, adjust things with some context, and come up with an answer to the question or comparison that actually makes some logical sense – even if the majority of sports writers view that concept as being as foreign as the ability to fly to the sun like Icarus.

By Ray Flowers

McGwire: The Day After

As time passes and we all digest the news of Mark McGwire’s admission that he took steroids for about a decade of his career, I thought I would do something I’d like to do more of moving forward.

For those of you who haven’t had the chance to sign up, BaseballGuys is on Twitter where I post away all day (you can sign up at Baseball Guys’ Twitter Page). With the news of McGwire finally coming clean about his drug use, there were a plethora of responses in cyberspace (you can see my video thoughts at McGwire Admits Steroid Use), and I thought it might be beneficial to all of you, even those who have joined my Twitter following, to see what people’s initial reactions were. So here is a random sampling of some of the more interesting Twitter posts on the McGwire news that I came across in the hour after the news broke (Twitter comments are in italics, my responses follow in regular font after ***).

@SI_JonHeyman: if you lie for 10 years, and everyone knows you’re lying, what’s the value of finally telling the truth?
*** I can’t disagree here, though a McGwire apologist might say he didn’t actually lie, he just didn’t answer completely truthfully (he never told Congress, point blank, that he “didn’t” take steroids).

@MattArlauckas: Baseball record books to start using asterisks for players who were clean. It’ll save on ink costs.
*** Only problem with this is that we have no way of knowing who did or didn’t cheat. I can’t disagree with the sentiment though.

@DeBo_XL: Roger Maris should be officially the single season Home Run King. Even though 1998 saved the game of baseball.
*** McGwire admitted he took steroids, and only a brain dead moron wouldn’t postulate, with a high degree of certitude, that Barry Bonds and Sammy Sosa didn’t too, so I have no problem with this line of thought.

Where do we draw the line? RT @MWEinNC: Do we know Maris wasn’t taking greenies (also barred) ?
*** Touche. Of course, we don’t know who was doing what, when, and therefore this argument quickly becomes the equivalent of chasing Alice down the rabbit hole (that’s an Alice in Wonderland reference).

@IamAlabamaCrazy: Canseco can sit back and say I told ya so.
*** Amazing aint it? Not everything he said has come to light as truth, but you’d have to say that Jose Canseco was hitting at least .500 with his revelations.

@JimmyGlenn711: They should start a Steroid Record Book and just tabulate all the baseball records broken with Steroids.
*** I understand this sentiment, but as I’ve written, there is no way to quantify who was on what when, so this one will remain the realm of the hypothetical discourse.

@mets4ever: when baseball players admit to taking steroids… it’s like part of my childhood gets destroyed a bit.
*** This might be the worst part of this whole flipping mess. Players used to be heroes to kids, but nowadays there are few men that you can point to as someone that your children should really look up to. I touched on this sad fact last season in Death of the Hero?

@NDBRAD: The MLB home run record is still 61 in ’61 by North Dakota’s Roger Maris. Rotten cheaters.
*** Same as the other one above signaling that the “real” single season home run record holder is still Mr. Maris.

In closing, I would like to leave you with some quotes that I took down during McGwire’s interview with Bob Costas yesterday. I have to tell you Mr. McGwire, judging by the response of people on Twitter, it doesn’t sound like you have a shot at ever recapturing your stature as a baseball player worthy of respect and honor, so good luck with that.

“I’m not here doing this for the HOF. I’m doing this for me, to get this off my chest.”

“I would have loved drug testing when I played.”

“I kept this to myself… I’ve never been asked.”
McGwire never told his parents (until Sunday).

“I was not going to lie…I decided I would take the hits.”
On his testimony before Congress.

“There is absolutely no truth to that whatsoever.”
McGwire speaking to Canseco allegation they did ‘roids in stadium locker room.

By Ray Flowers

HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood?

Mark McGwire, like the mythic figure of Babe Ruth, seemed to transcend the game. Massive muscles, topped only by mammoth blasts that reached the upper levels of seats, were his calling card. A huge man who stood 6’5″ while weighing something like 250 (or more) pounds, he was a cartoon character who made pitchers look foolish when they grooved a pitch. He was a generational icon who did what he did – blast long balls – just about as well as anyone who had ever played the game.

Alas, McGwire’s run as a hero to many was destroyed well before it should have been when he was tainted by the whole PED scandal (Performance Enhancing Drugs). I’m not here to say whether or not he did anything illegal, goodness knows there have been reams of articles dealing with that very subject (for my thoughts on the topic take a look at Death of the Hero). The bottom line is that unless you want to exclude every player who suited up from 1995-2005 from the Hall of Fame, you have to make the decision to judge the players based on the merit of their works on the field and not by the suppositions of the masses. If everyone was or wasn’t cheating isn’t the point. The point is we don’t know who was “cheating,” we don’t have anyway of knowing who was cheating, and there will never be a way to prove, one or another, who was cheating. So let’s just examine McGwire through the lens of the men that he played against to see how he ranks, and by extension, whether or not he should be elected to the Hall of Fame in his fourth year on the ballot (I’m under no illusions that he will be selected for enshrinement, he certainly will not).

* McGwire, a pitcher in college at USC, started out his career as an offensive force being moved to third base before finally being shifted over to first base. In his first year in the bigs (1987), a 6’5″, 220 lbs McGwire won the Rookie of the Year award hitting .289 with 49 homers, 118 RBI and a .618 SLG (the HR and SLG led the league).

* McGwire never won the MVP award in his career, likely a result of a career batting average of just .263, but he still finished in the top-7 five different times finishing second to Sammy Sosa in 1998 despite hitting .299 with a then record 70 homers (he also scored 130 runs and knocked in 147 while posting a massive 1.222 OPS).

* Despite the plethora of talented men who played first base during his career, McGwire was named to the All-Star team 12 times. In fact, from 1987-2000 he missed out only in 1993 and 1994 when he was injured and limited to 27 and 47 games.

* From 1987 through his final year in the big leagues (2001), here is how McGwire ranked in a myriad of categories for that 15-year stretch.

McGwire hit 580 homers, the most in baseball (Barry Bonds had 551).
McGwire had 1,405 RBI, third most in baseball (Bonds had 1,494).
McGwire had a .590 SLG, the third best mark in baseball (Bonds and Manny Ramirez led the way at .594).
McGwire had a .985 OPS, fourth in baseball (Bonds at 1.017).

McGwire clearly dominated when compared to his peers, a fact that isn’t lost when we compare him to the immortals of the game. Here are McGwire all-time ranks in a handful of categories.

583 home runs, 8th all-time
1,414 RBI, 66th all-time
.394 OBP, 78th all-time
.588 SLG, 9th all-time
.982 OPS, 11th all-time

Clearly this man was one of the greatest sluggers of all-time, period. To me, that record of achievement deserves enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. I’ll leave the value judgments to others. What was it that Jesus said way back when? “Let he who is without sin among you be the first to throw a stone…” (John 8:7).

To see my thoughts on others in my HOF series simply click on the following links:

Who Am I?

HOF: Tim Raines

Is McGriff Hall Worthy?

The Case of Andre Dawson

By Ray Flowers

The Case of Andre Dawson

What the heck. I thought I might as well continue to plow through some of the potential HOFamers with the release of voting results mere days away (January 6th). Today I’ll touch on Andre Dawson, the highest vote getter in 2009 who wasn’t chosen for election to the Hall of Fame (he received 67.0 percent of the vote, just under the 75 percent minimum that is required).

To see my thoughts on others in this series simply click on the following links:

HOF: Tim Raines

Is McGriff Hall Worthy?

Andrew Dawson was the “modern day ballplayer” before there was the modern day ballplayer. Exceedingly athletic, powerful with the bat, his legs, and his arm, there was nothing this man couldn’t do on the ball field. Let me detail his exploits.

Blessed with a cannon of an arm, Dawson cut down runners frequently on his way to hauling in 6-straight Gold Gloves (1980-85) and eight overall.

Dawson was named to eight All-Star teams in his career.

Dawson won four Silver Slugger Awards.

Dawson won the NL MVP in 1987 (.287-49-137-90-11) and finished twice two other times (1981 and 1983). Overall he had 2.36 Career MVP Shares good for 67th all-time (a measure of how many votes a player picks up in MVP voting).

What about his overall numbers? Here are some of those.

Dawson hit 438 home runs in his career, 36th all-time.
Dawson knocked in 1,591 runs, 34th all-time.
Dawson scored 1,373 runs, 93rd all-time.
Dawson had 314 steals, 146th all-time.
Dawson produced 2,774 hits, 45th all-time.
Dawson hit 503 doubles, 48th all-time.
Dawson produced 1,039 extra base hits, 24th all-time.

And finally, you put that all together and — Dawson was one of only three men who have played the game who have hit more than 400-HRs with at least 300-SBs. The others two guys are named Willie Mays and Barry Bonds.

Moreover, in the decade of the 1980′s, few were better at the dish. Here is an average Dawson season in that time (1980-89): .285-25-90-81-20. That type of season would have helped to win many a fantasy baseball championship would it have not? Remember, offense wasn’t as prevalent back then so the numbers are actually better than they look on the face of it as well.

Clearly, he was very good for a very long time.

From the traditional measures to a couple of those new fangled measures that you may or may not be aware of.

HOF Career Standards (created by Bill James). A score of 50 is about “normal” for a HOF player, and Dawson checks in with a mark of 44 which is one point better than the 43 that one of last years inductees, Jim Rice, racked up in his career. That seems to paint Dawson in a slightly unfavorable light.

HOF Monitor (created by Bill James). A score of 100 is about “normal” for a HOF player, and Dawson has a mark of 118. Compared to Jim Rice though, he falls well off the pace (Rice has a 144 mark). In fact, Dawson falls well behind three other batters who failed to gain entry last season in Mark McGwire (170), Don Mattingly (134) and Dave Parker (124). This measure, and the one above, seem to signal that Dawson would be a fair option for the Hall of Fame, but far from an elite option – perhaps that’s why he still hasn’t been enshrined.

Andre Dawson isn’t a lock to be inducted in 2010, but sooner or later, much like Jim Rice, it appears that he will be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. So in the words of Jim Carey in Dumb and Dumber – “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!”

By Ray Flowers