The Hidden Truth

While doing my daily run around the world of sports last week, I came across a very interesting article written by Jeff Passan that you can find at Stimulants Gain Attention. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out what the piece was about.

Normally, I avoid all the talk of steroids and performance enhancing drugs (PED). Sure, I sometimes delve into the topic, I can’t avoid it entirely in my line of work, but honestly most of the time I try to pay attention to what is happening on the field and let the legal wrangling and the blowhards deal with PED’s. However, Mr. Passan’s column was so illuminating I thought I simply had to break it down. Here are some of the highlights of the piece.

1- 108 players in 2009 were awarded a free pass for drug use. What do I mean? 108 major league players were granted a TUE or Therapeutic Use Exemption to take drugs on the banned list. These 108 baseball player all were being treated for ADHD or Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder. That’s nearly nine percent of all players, more than double the population at large. “It looks fishy,” said Dr. Ari Tuckman, the VP of the Attention Deficit Disorder Association. “It doesn’t mean it is, but it looks that way.”

2- In 2006 there were 28 players granted a TUE.

3- In 2007 MLB started testing for stimulants.

4- In 2007 the number of TUE’s quadrupled to 103.

You do the math.

5- Though baseball says they have tightened the rules for TUE, in 2008 the number of players on the list increased from 103 to 106. “A healthy percentage of applications for new TUE’s was rejected,” MLB Players Association director Michael Weiner said

6- ADHD drugs are not steroids. However, they do bring a heightened sense of alertness, and an inner calmness, two traits that clearly might have just a wee bit of an effect on a hitter. “In the most general sense, almost everybody does better on a stimulant,” Dr. Tuckman said, “which is something Starbucks and Coca-Cola figured out long ago.”

So what do we have here? Well, approximately 15 percent of all major league players are using prescription medication that could be said, in the least, to give the user a more heightened ability to focus. Given the requirements of the game, a game that goes on day after day for six months, you often hear that players are more mentally tired than physically worn down. Do you think a little pick me up in the form of a TUE leading to medication might help? I’m not saying that there aren’t some players who legitimately might have a medically condition, but double the rate of the general population? To say that seems unlikely would be kind.

In the end, this problem will never go away. Those that want to cheat will likely always be one step ahead of those that are trying to catch them. Those that can skirt by legally will likely do everything they can to gain that little extra edge. And to be truthful, is there really any difference between having a TUE or stealing signs on the field? You might even be able to make a cogent argument that stealing signs is actually worse because it informs you how the play will develop (if you take a drug, you still have to read, react and perform). I don’t know if there is any way to put all of this “drug” stuff behind us, but if there is I’d be 100 percent behind it because for far too long the story hasn’t been about what happens on the field, it’s been about what has happened in the doctor’s office.

By Ray Flowers

Playoff Baseball: ALCS

I covered the NLCS in my last column, so as not to draw the ire of those that follow the AL game, today’s piece is dedicated completely to Game 3 of the ALCS.

Base Running

I know that Andy Pettitte has a great move to first, but what in the hell were the Angels doing in Game 3 of the ALCS? I know they love to run and pride themselves on being aggressive on the base paths, but situations like Torii Hunter getting picked off with Vlad Guerrero at the dish is simply inexcusable. Period.

Speaking of inexcusable, what the hell was Bobby Abreu thinking on that double in the eighth inning? All the talk will be about how Derek Jeter made some spectacular play to cut off the throw from the outfield to nab Abreu as he rounded second, but the truth is that the play had little to do with Jeter who caught the throw from the outfield and then threw the ball to second. The real play was made by first baseman Mar Teixeira who followed Abreu down to second from his first base position (Robinson Cano was in the outfield as the cutoff man, while Jeter was functioning as the second cutoff man leaving no one left to cover second base). So give kudos to Teixeira while at the same time deriding Abreu who had about a two percent chance of making third on the hit and should have just stayed at second base. This was another prime example of the Angels running themselves out of an inning.

Why I Dislike the AL

Am I the only one who detests the American League game? Something about the DH has always stuck in my craw – just don’t like it. The game was meant to be a 9-on-9 affair, not a 10-on-10 effort. If you want that go join your local beer league.

Clutch Hitting

So much for Alex Rodriguez being a chocker in the playoffs. Now it’s all anyone can do to avoid falling all over themselves to voice the view that he is all of a sudden clutch. I said it before the playoffs began, and I’ll say it again: I know it’s where reputations are made, but don’t overestimate anecdotal evidence in the playoffs. Also, don’t make the mistake of taking a tiny group of games and thinking that you can extrapolate out some reasonably accurate assessment of a player’s ability to produce in the clutch. A-Rod entered these playoffs, with 147 career post-season at-bats, hardly enough work to think you can accurate describe A-Rod as a “chocker.” Remember back when Barry Bonds was awful in the playoffs only to go out and put a whopping on the Angels in the 2002 World Series (four homers, six RBI, .471 average and a .700 OBP in 30 plate appearances)? As with A-Rod, that’s simply too small a sample size to draw any reasonable conclusions. However, when you turn to Derek Jeter we are talking about well over 500 at-bats – he has appeared in 129 post-season games (a record) with more hits (161) than anyone ever – that is more than enough to draw some conclusions. Not surprisingly, Jeter comes through as you would expect with a batting line (.309/.378/.480) that is a near identical match for his work in the regular season (.317/.388/.459). That man is the definition of clutch.

Oh, and it’s only eight games, but Ryan Howard has an RBI in 8-straight post-season contests, an all-time record (tied with Lou Gehrig). Still, it’s just eight games.

Why I Dislike the AL Part II

Speaking of disliking the AL game, is it me or can you time these games with a sundial? Besides having less in-game strategy as clubs sit back and wait for the long ball, somehow the games always seen to take at least four hours. I found myself drooling down my chin a couple of times and once I almost smashed my head full on into my keyboard before I caught myself during Game 3.

Why I Dislike the AL Part III

The Yankees are in the AL. Oh, and Tim McCarver is announcing the series.

By Ray Flowers

How Good is Albert Pujols?

Earlier this week I made the case for Albert Pujols as the lead dog in The NL MVP Race. Honestly, he isn’t the lead dog, he is the only dog worth even mentioning.

Some of you may understand just how historic Pujols has been in his career, other’s may not, so I thought I would spend a few minutes detailing to you just how amazing Pujols has been through his first nine seasons.

(1) If not for some moronic voting in 2002, Albert Pujols would have been selected to the All-Star team in every season of his career (he ended the year hitting .314 with 34 homers, 127 RBI and 118 runs scored and was hitting “only .294-21-66-66 in 84 games in the first half).

(2) Pujols may have won two MVP awards so far, his third one will be added to the mix shortly, but despite playing only nine seasons he is already 11th all-time in MVP Shares. He could easily move up to about sixth on the list after this year’s vote is announced.

(3) Pujols owns a .334 career batting average, the 24th best mark in baseball history for players with at least 3,000 plate appearances. He has never finished below seventh in NL batting race in his nine seasons.

(4) Pujols owns a .427 career OBP, the 13th best mark in baseball history. Six times he has finished in the top-3.

(5) Pujols owns a .628 career SLG, the fourth best mark ever. In each of his nine seasons he has finished in the top-9.

(6) Pujols owns a 1.055 career OPS, the fourth best mark in baseball history. In all of his nine seasons he has finished in the top-10, and over the past five years he has finished first in the NL four times.

(7) Pujols has had only one “down” season in his career. In 2007 he hit .327 with 32 homers, 103 RBI and 99 runs scored. That ’07 season is the only one in his career in which he has failed to knocked in at least 116 runs or score at least 100 times.

(8) Here is how Pujols ranks, amongst all major leaguers, during his career (minimum 3,000 plate appearances).

AVG: .334, 1st overall
HR: 366, 2nd overall (A-Rod has 394)
RBI: 1,112, 1st overall
Runs: 1,071, 1st overall
OBP: .427, 3rd overall
SLG: .629, 2nd overall (Barry Bonds posted a .731 mark)
OPS: 1.055, 2nd overall (Barry Bonds posted a 1.262 mark)

(9) And finally. In each of his nine seasons, Pujols has hit at least .314 with 32 homers, 103 RBI and 99 runs scored. That run of nine consecutive seasons is the longest such stretch in the history of the game (Babe Ruth is second with seven). What about Alex Rodriguez or Manny Ramirez, the two other right-handed hitters often spoken of as potential all-time greats from the right side of the plate? A-Rod’s longest stretch is two years (2000-01) while Manny has never done it in back-to-back seasons.

Those are just some of the numbers that speak to the greatness that is Albert Pujols. So next time you are sitting around the fire blazin’ up some smores and the conversation floats to baseball, you know which man you should lead with when someone asks you ‘who is the greatest right-handed hitter you have ever seen play?’ If you are under 40 and you don’t say Mr. Pujols you need to lay off the ripple. If you were to come back and ask this question in another 10 years I think it’s at least a 50-50 bet that no matter how old you are that the answer would be Albert Pujols. Mr. Pujols isn’t just great, he is historically magnificent. You can tell him I said so.

By Ray Flowers

Henderson to the Hall

This coming weekend one of the most anticipated Hall of Fame acceptance speeches in recent memory is expected to be given by the always entertaining Rickey Henderson, the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball since Ty Cobb decided to hang up his spikes (Jim Rice will also be officially inducted). Before I delve into the numbers, I thought I would share a few anecdotal tidbits about Henderson, one of the great “characters” in the game.

* Henderson almost always, and I mean always, referred to himself in the third person with statements like ‘Rickey was really good tonight’ or “Rickey is going to take tomorrow off, his body is sore.’ Think I’m making it up? Hardly. Former A’s trainer Barry Weinberg said this. “Sometimes he’d say I think I might be sore tomorrow.” Mike Gallego would say, “How do you know you’re going to be sore tomorrow?” Rickey would reply – “Because Rickey knows Rickey.”

* He once fell asleep while icing his foot, got frostbite, and had to miss three games. True story.

* “Do your stretching before you sleep. That way you wake up loose.”

* When he broke the career stolen base record of Lou Brock, who was in attendance, Henderson exclaimed, loudly, that he was “the greatest of all-time!” Of course he was wearing his stylish Oakley Blades while doing it.

* “You have to keep running. I always believed I was going to be safe.”

* Henderson received a check for a million dollars from the A’s. He was so excited about the bonus that he took the check and had it framed and hung it on his wall. It was only later that he realized he needed to take the check to the bank if he wanted to get his money.

* “Ricky don’t like it when Rickey can’t find Rickey’s limo.”

* Noted Sabermatrician Bill James had this to say about Henderson. “Some people have asked me whether or not Rickey Henderson belonged in the Hall of Fame. I’ve replied “if you could somehow split him in two, you’d have two Hall of Famers.”

THE NUMBERS

Beyond all the fun the man could flat out play, and play he did all the way to the most steals in big league history (1,406) as well as the most runs ever scored (2,295). Henderson also racked up 3,055 hits, socked 297 long balls, and posted a .401 career ob base percentage. Think of things this way.

* Henderson scored at least 100 runs in a season 13 times, second to Hank Aaron’s total of 15 in baseball history. In addition, per 162 games in his career, Henderson averaged 121 runs (think about that for a moment).

* Henderson stole at least 50 bases 13 times, the most in big league history. Per 162 games in his career Henderson averaged 74 steals a season. Since 2000 only one man, Jose Reyes in 2007, has stolen 74 bases in a season (he had 78).

* Henderson’s total of 1,406 steals is 468 more steals than the #2 man on the all-time list, Lou Brock. Amongst active players I believe the leader in steals is Juan Pierre with 452 (Henderson was caught stealing 335 times). Think about that, the active leader doesn’t even have as many steals as Henderson’s lead is over the #2 man all-time. To put it another way, Henderson has roughly a 35% advantage over the second place man on the steals list. If we switch over to home runs that would mean that someone would have to hit over 1,100 home runs in their career to be ahead of the current leader, Barry Bonds (762) by the same percentage.

And finally….

* Henderson is one of only two men in baseball history to hit 275 home runs while scoring 1,500 times and stealing 500 bases. The other is Barry Bonds.

So sit back and enjoy Henderson’s victory speech this weekend. It should be one heck of an event marking the entrance into the Hall of one of the 10 greatest all-around players ever to lace up the spikes.

By Ray Flowers

Are You Buying It?

I tend to be drawn into talk of conspiracy. Was JFK shot by one man? Is there a shadow group in the world that controls everything economic called the Bilderbergers? Has our government kept hidden details of our interaction with alien races? Does the world work in a way in order to screw me at every chance possible? Again, I admit that my mind seems drawn to such things, and while some conspiracies are obviously very unlikely to be authentic, sometimes the evidence clearly seems to show that there might be more truth to some rumors than most would be comfortable admitting.

Today, I’m here to definitively state that major league baseball conspired, colluded if you will, to push Barry Bonds from the game. I’m not here to be mouthpiece for Bonds, we all know that his magnificent talents were likely augmented by non-legal means, but the bottom line is that he was still an extremely productive major league hitter when he took his last at-bat. Here is the data.

In his last season (2007) Bonds hit .276 with 28 home runs, 66 RBI and 75 runs scored in just 340 at-bats which is a pace for 41 homers, 97 RBI and 110 runs over 500-ABs. Does that sound like a man who was washed up?

In his last season Bonds posted an OBP of .480. Amongst players with 475 plate appearances that was the best mark in baseball.

In his last season Bonds posted an OPS of 1.045 OPS. Amongst players with 475 plate appearances that was the best mark in the National League.

That sound like a man who was ready to retire to you?

Alas, baseball continues to proclaim it’s innocence saying that no team wanted to sign Bonds because he was merely too big a distraction off the field. Given that professional teams employ admitted steroid users, drug users, alcoholics and spousal abusers on a daily basis, are you buying that line argument? Please tell me that you, my faithful readers, are smarter than that.

Why do I bring this up at this time? Because there have been some rumors that the Giants, his former team, might be interested in adding a power hitter to the mix given that they continue to be involved in the race for the playoffs through the NL wildcard. Here is what Bonds agent, Jeff Borris, had to say. “I know the Giants are dying for power, and they’re in it. They wouldn’t have to look beyond their backyard,” Borris said.

Question – would the Giants consider bringing Bonds back into the fold?

Do I have a night Friday date with Shania Twain?

Does that mean that the Giants are involved in some secret cabal with the other owners in baseball to keep Bonds out of the game? Certainly not. The Giants witnessed the disaster that is Bonds for years and they want nothing to do with a return to those times. However, I don’t for a moment think that absolves the other teams from the contention that they have conspired to keep Bonds out of the game. Why? You mean to tell me that there isn’t a single team that could use a 20 homer, .400 OBP bat in their outfield? That’s sheer poppycock. Do you know how many active players have ever produced an OBP of over .480 in a season of 475 plate appearances? Try zero. Do you know how many men own an OPS of 1.045 for their career which is the mark that Bonds posted in his last season (.006 points below his career mark)? Try one, and you might have heard of him – Albert Pujols.

I despise Bonds for what he did while at the same time pitying him a bit for the decisions he made. On his way to the Hall of Fame before he ever took any substance, Bonds and his legacy will forever be linked to the steroid age of baseball. Still, with the proliferation of despicable people in the game it is unconscionable to me that a man who posted a league leading OBP and an OPS over 1.000 in his last season on the ball field can’t find a team will to offer him a contract. That’s no conspiracy folks, that’s a fact.

By Ray Flowers

It’s Surreal

Normally I pull on my glasses, open up the spreadsheets, and go to town. If you’ve ready any of my work you know that I love numbers, the universal language as they call it, and I sprinkle them liberally through most of my work. Sometimes I also toss in a pulp culture reference or two, I’m always fond of dropping a Jessica Alba or Britney Spears reference, and sometimes I even attempt to draw out a laugh or two with my quirky sense of humor (you can hear more of that each day, Monday through Friday, on the Fanball.com podcast that I co-host with Kyle Elfrink at 8-9 AM, PST). As a result of all of that, I usually avoid outright opinion pieces, but with some of the goings on in the NFL of late I felt it would be worth my time to address some things.

With everyone in the world freaking out about performance enhancing drugs and how their presence has tainted basically a decade worth of accomplishments in major league baseball, it seems to me that football has largely been getting a free pass by fans and the media, and I’m not quite sure why that is. Not to dwell on the negative, but here are a few NFL stories that have made the rounds of late.

The Tragic Death of Steve McNair: It appears that McNair, married with four kids, was having an affair with a 20 year old woman who, it appears, shot him while he slept four times before turning the gun on herself. It does little good to harp on a man who has lost his life, but what he heck was a married man doing running around with a gal who could have almost been his daughter (McNair was 36 years old)?

The DUI/Manslaughter Case of Donte Stallworth: Donte Stallworth was drunk with a blood alcohol level of .126, well above the legal limit in Florida of 0.08, when he struck and killed a pedestrian (there are also unconfirmed reports that he may also tested positive for marijuana). He was forthcoming with the police from the start, a fact that played into the court sentencing him to just 30 days in jail for his crime (he was released six days early for good behavior). I have no idea what kind of penal system we have in the United States these days when you can be drunk and kill someone in your car yet get less time in jail then some months have days, but at least the NFL got it right when commissioner Roger Goodell suspended Stallworth indefinitely, especially since this is not his first run in with the league and its substance abuse policy.

The Buffon – aka Travis Henry: Former star running back Travis Henry is currently awaiting sentencing for his involvement in a cocaine trafficking venture he was busted for being a part of. He likely faces years in jail, potentially up to 10, for his crimes. His lawyer is claiming his client was “duped” into joining the drug ring and therefore should be given a light sentence. Maybe he was also “duped” into having nine children with nine different women as well? Henry is a disgrace to humanity.

The Suspension of Calvin Pace: The Jet’s linebacker tested positive for violating the league’s performance enhancing substance clause – i.e. he got popped for steroids. As a result he was suspended for four games. Of course his defense was the usual – it wasn’t steroids but a tainted over the counter supplement that got him in trouble. Will anyone ever step up to the plate and just admit the truth? You think this excuse would work in baseball?

And that’s kinda the whole point of this rant today. In baseball a player suspected of once upon a time taking steroids is thrown to the wolves. Guys like Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa have all likely had their legacies tarnished to the point that they will never recover, regardless of the fact that none of them ever tested positive for steroids. Yet in the NFL we have a guy suspended for steroids and he’ll be back and playing soon enough with no one giving a rat’s ass as long as he makes plays on Sunday’s. Even worse, the NFL has become a stomping ground not just for cheaters but drug addicts, spousal abusers, womanizers and worse – a place where the on the field violence has seeped into to pretty much every aspect of these players lives to the point where many of them no longer seem capable of making rational, adult decisions. Maybe all you football lovers out there should think of that the next time you down a baseball player for possibly ingesting a PED, because in comparison to what is common place in the NFL anymore, my get-up-out-of-my-seat-outrage at baseball players just doesn’t exist.

By Ray Flowers

Death of the Hero?

Have all the heroes disappeared in the world of baseball? In case you missed it, and how could you, the New York Times has reported that Sammy Sosa tested positive for performance enhancing drugs in 2003 as one of the 104 major leaguers who failed the “confidential” drug testing that led to Major League Baseball instituting a sport wide steroid testing policy that they continue to follow until this day. Do we have proof that this accusation is true? Of course we don’t since the records that are being reported on are secret and that the “source” for the story is anonymous fearing a potentially stiff legal penalty for divulging privileged information. Much like Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez, Sosa never officially failed a major league drug test (the 2003 tests weren’t “official,” that didn’t happen until the following year of 2004 after a high enough percentage of players failed the first test in 2003 to kick in official sanctions), but that certainly won’t help to remove the tarnish that has set in with regards to their legacy.

This whole performance enhancing mess has been discussed ad nauseam, and I have no intention of repeating what has been said in so many corners. I would however like to pose the following question:

Who is the greatest home run hitter in baseball the past 25 years?

Barry Bonds is widely regarded to have cheated during the second half of his career, so he is out.

Sammy Sosa? From a 175 lbs rookie to the cover of Muscle and Fitness magazine with biceps bigger than my thighs. Shocking that he likely cheated.

Mark McGwire? Next.

Rafael Palmeiro? The biggest hypocrite on Earth? I never liked that guy anyway, especially after he did those Viagra commercials and then claimed he didn’t take the product. Yeah, right.

A-Rod? Please. That guy is so phony that he would stand out in a room of fake money in a Secret Service vault (for those of you that don’t know the Secret Service, those folks that run along next to the presidential motorcade with dark glasses an ear microphones, are the branch of government that investigates phony money).

Manny Ramirez? Thought he apparently made it out of the initial barrage clean, his recent test failure certainly casts a huge pale of suspicion over everything he did previously.

So amongst guys who have played the bulk of their careers since 1980, we are left with two names – Jim Thome and Ken Griffey Jr.

As of this writing Thome has 553 home runs, the 13th best mark in baseball history. As for Griffey, his number is 617, so he becomes the king of the modern day home run hitters. In fact, If not for a series of injury filled campaigns from 2001-04, Griffey likely would be closing in on 700-home runs instead of 620. Think I’m full of it?

Consider that Griffey had hit at least 40-home runs each year from 1996-2000. Even if we posit that he would slow a bit with age, let’s cut that number all the way down to a very conservative 30 a season (after all he hit 35 in 2005 when he returned to health), how many extra home runs would he have hit during his four injury filled seasons? In those four seasons Griffey had 1,027 ABs, an average of 257 a year. Given that he averaged 582 the previous five seasons when he was blasting 40 homer a year, let’s again play it conservative and give him 550 at-bats a season at the rate of 30 homers a year. That equates to one home run per 18.33 ABs. If we add an extra 300 at-bats a season, remember he averaged 257 in that time and we are positing 550 a year, that would given him an extra 16.4 home runs a season. 16.4 times four years equals an additional 66 home runs, which when added to his total of 617 brings The Kid up to 683 in his career. Like I said, within shouting distance of becoming just the fourth man in history to record 700 big flies without the aide of artificial stimulants in his career.

We’ll likely never know the truth of who did what, when, but for my money, and face my opinion is the one that counts given that I’m the one penning this article, here is my top-10 list of home run hitters who have ever played the game.

755 – Hank Aaron
714 – Babe Ruth
660 – Willie Mays
617 – Ken Griffey Jr.
586 – Frank Robinson
573 – Harmon Killebrew
563 – Reggie Jackson
553 – Jim Thome
548 – Mike Schmidt
536 – Mickey Mantle

Long live Ken Griffey Jr., truly one of the most complete players, steroid enhanced or otherwise for that matter, who ever played the game of baseball.

By Ray Flowers

A Day in the Life

Today in my survey o’ the world of baseball, we will spend some time detailing a couple of big bats in Chicago, a speedster in Cincinnati and the plight of a first round fantasy stud whose season is teetering on the brink of irrelevance due to injury.

Let me get this straight. Jake Fox hit a blistering .424 with 17 home runs and 51 RBI in just 41 games at Triple-A this season doing his best Rogers Hornsby imitation. He was then called up to the Cubs where he went 5-for-12 (.417). His reward? He was sent back to Triple-A Iowa. With Derrek Lee finally starting to turn things around at first base – he has hit .345 with a .457 OBP in his last 15 games – the Cubs just weren’t able to find any room on the diamond for Fox since they don’t trust his glove at third base. If you are Fox, how disappointed are you right now? You’ve knocked in a run a game and are hitting better than Ted Williams ever did yet you cannot even find a way to convince your team to find a bench spot for you. Don’t know about you, but if that was me I would be calling my agent telling him I want the hell out of there immediately.

The White Sox made a distressing announcement today, though I cannot say that it wasn’t somewhat expected. Carlos Quentin, on the sidelines with plantar fasciitis in his foot, will likely be out until at least the All-Star game. For his part, Quentin stated that the injury isn’t really PF, it’s actually a torn tendon in his left foot. No matter what the actual injury, the bottom line is that Quentin will remain sidelined for at least another month. What this likely means is that potential free agent Jermaine Dye (there is a mutual option for $12 million for 2010), and his 15 home runs will not be traded, that is if the White Sox think they can still contend despite a 27-32 record. The White Sox simply need a big right-handed bat in the middle of the lineup to remain competitive, and with Quentin out, Dye is their best option though Paul Konerko hasn’t been bad at the dish with a .295-8-39 line this season.

Grady Sizemore, already on the DL due to a strained elbow, will be held out of baseball activity for another five days at which time an MRI will be performed to determine whether or not the joint has healed sufficiently to allow him to return to the diamond. Don’t know about you, but I’m thinking that he will eventually need arthroscopic surgery. What is clear is that with nine home runs and seven steals, Sizemore won’t be going 30/30 this season like he did last year, and in fact he may be hard pressed to go 20/20, a total he has reach in each of the past four seasons. Actually Sizemore has hit at least 22 home runs, with at least 22 steals and at least 100 runs in each of the last four seasons, and that is the third longest such streak in baseball history (tied with Carlos Beltran and Barry Bonds). Willie Mays is the all-time leader with six straight seasons from 1955-60 while the second man on the list is Bobby Bonds with a stretch of five-straight years from 1969-1973. As for Beltran, he has eight home runs, seven steals and 34 runs putting him on pace for about 23 home runs, 20 steals and 98 runs, so he’ll need to kick things up a notch himself is he wants to move into a second place tie on the list.

Willy Taveras is 0-for-16 and as a result his average has dropped to .250 on the season. Even worse for a leadoff hitter, his OBP is just .307 which has caused the Reds to drop him to second in the order. “Willy is my leadoff man,” manager Dusty Baker said. “It’s temporary.” Apparently the fact that Taveras is hitting .250 with a .308 OBP over his last 663 ABs dating back to the start of last season doesn’t matter to Baker and the Reds as they seem stuck on the fact that Willy T. has posted 80 steals since the start of last season. That’s great guys, but do you really need someone to tell you that steals are wonderful, but they don’t matter if you don’t get on base enough to be an effective weapon out of the leadoff spot?

By Ray Flowers

Some People Never Learn

I thought we were past this. I thought after all the analysis we’ve been spewing over the past five years that the mainstream media has finally gotten “it.” I guess we’re not done yet.

I recently was flipping through the pages of my Sporting News Magazine when I came across an article in which they asked a bunch of baseball people to rate who the best players in the game are (Albert Pujols came out on top). While I might disagree with some of the order of their choices, that isn’t germane to my concern here. My concern is that people in the mainstream media, and remember these are the people that vote for the Hall of Fame folks, just don’t understand how the game, and the measurement used to speak to the game, work.

What do I mean. Simply put nothing means anything without context. Think I’m crazy? Here is a series of numbers. Can you tell me what they mean with no supporting context?

13, 60, 73, 511 and 911

My shoe size.
The single season home run record set by Babe Ruth in 1927.
The new single season home run record set by Barry Bonds in 2001.
The career victory total of Cy Young.
The famous model number for Porsche’s.

The point is without some sort of context, the numbers mean nothing at all.

So when I read the Sporting News breakdowns I wasn’t shocked, though I was dismayed, to realize that people that are supposed to be “in the know” still, well, don’t know.

Here is an example. The article talks about how Josh Hamilton hit 32 home runs and had 130 RBI in his first full season in Texas while Juan Gonzalez had only 27 HR and 102 RBI. That would lead you to think that Hamilton is a much better player wouldn’t it?. However, let’s use some context. Hamilton was 27 years old last season while Gonzo was just 21 in his first full season. Oh, and in case you were wondering, by the time Gonzalez was 27 he had four seasons of 40 home runs and 100-RBI.

Another example? There is a note that Victor Martinez has more RBI at the age of 30 than fellow catcher Carlton Fisk. The context that is left out here is that Fisk had 468 RBI through his 30 year old season, but that he then went on to record 866 RBI over the remainder of his career that lasted until he was 45 years of age. Do you honestly think that V-Mart has another 1,700+ games in him as did Fisk? Martinez better keep whacking that ball around the yard at a prodigious pace if wants to surpass the 1,300+ RBI that Fisk had in his career, and let me tell you something – it ain’t gonna happen (Martinez would have to average 85 RBI for the next 10 years to catch him).

And here might be the topper. The article actually says, and I quote, that Carlos Zambrano’s winning percentage of .615 “…is the same as Sandy Koufax when he was 28.” Seriously? Besides the fact that wins and loses are a putrid way to measure the success or failure of a hurler, there is also the context that by every conceivable measure known to mankind shows that Koufax was a vastly superior pitcher to Zambrano making any comparison between the two fallacious. Here are some examples.

In his 29 and 30 year old season’s Koufax went 53-17, to push his winning percentage up to .655 in his career. In addition, he also posted a 1.88 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, 9.55 K/9 and a 4.72 K/BB ratio in those two seasons, numbers Zambrano has never even sniffed in his career. Oh yeah, Koufax also tossed 659 innings in those two seasons, or more than the 619 that Zambrano has tossed in his last three seasons!

But even this isn’t fair because it isn’t putting Koufax’s performance in the context of the era in which he pitched. I mean really, how do you compare a guy who tossed 330-innings in a season to a guy who throws 200? How do you compare a guy who posted an ERA of 2.76 in his career, to a guy who owns a 3.50 mark like Zambrano? Context my friends. By comparing each pitcher to their contemporaries we find that Koufax produced an ERA that was 31% better than the league average when he pitched, whereas Zambrano, pitching in a more “offensive era” has been 27% better than the league average. What this shows is that their performance, when compared to era in which they pitched, were actually similar despite the fact that Zambrano’s raw ERA is three-quarters of a run higher. The answer to all of this comparison business is context.

So next time you read one of these historical articles comparing players, make sure you do something that most of the writers never do – put whatever you are studying under the microscope, sprinkle in some context, and come up with an “answer” that is likely more accurate than that of the man or woman who is being paid to write the piece.

By Ray Flowers

Shame on You

Are there no hero’s left? The answer to that question appears to be a resounding yes after the news broke today that Manny Ramirez was being suspended 50-games, starting immediately, for taking HCG a drug which, by most experts’ opinions is used to boost a body’s testosterone production and often one that is used to help regulate a body’s ability to produce the hormone after taking steroids. There is even a story out that stating that the reason Manny tested positive for the drug is that it may have been prescribed by a doctor to help him overcome erectile dysfunction. There are so many positions, I mean directions, that I could go with here I’m really tempted, but given the gravity of the whole matter I think I will just let that one lay where it is.

The fact of the matter is that baseball as we knew it is totally done. If there was any “star” in the game who seemed to be above the performance enhancing drugs (PED) scandals it was Manny. Why? Does the guy even know what day it is? Sometimes he acts like he is on drugs, but most would posit weed and not PED’s as the culprit thanks to his often outrages behavior. Alas, that “joke” is no longer applicable with the news we heard today.

So where does this all leave us? Can baseball respond? Take a look at the list of the greatest players of all-time, and a whole host of them are now tainted with names like Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Mark McGwire, Alex Rodriguez and Sammy Sosa all under the pale of the PED scandal that has rocked the game to its very foundations. We have a couple of situations at play here.

1 – We have the group of suspected PED users in Bonds, Clemens, McGwire and Sosa. Anyone with half a brain in their head must admit that it appears, with a high degree of certitude, that each of these men used illicit means to boost their performance on the field even if they have yet to make such an admission.

2- We have an admitted user in A-Rod. He has stated that his PED use was limited to 2001-03 when he was a member of the Texas Rangers, but a recent book not only disputes that “fact,” it goes far beyond it to allege that A-Rod took PEDs as far back as high school. Regardless, unlike the men listed in number one above, A-Rod has admitted to PED use.

3- We have only one man off this list, despite everything that has been discussed, written or assumed, who has actually tested positive for PEDs while a major league player, and that is Manny Ramirez.

Not only will Manny have to live with the shame that this suspension will bring, his once pristine image, only tarnished by his flighty attitude and whimsical indiscretions on the field, is now called into question from a historical perspective. Given the climate we live in today, that means that a man who is clearly one of the top-10 right-handed hitters of all-time will likely find his name alongside the likes of Bonds, Clemens and McGwire five years after he hangs up his cleats – former superstars who may forever be denied admittance into the hallowed halls of the Hall of Fame. And for that, we should all be truly ashamed.

By Ray Flowers