Player Profile: Derek Jeter

Derek Jeter, one of the Yankees’ all-time greats (and that is saying something given the storied history of that major league baseball franchise), suffered through two down seasons in 2010-11 causing many to think the time in the sun for the Yankee’s leader was finally drawing to an end. However, showing that greatness should never be doubted, Jeter rebounded with a flurry of offensive fireworks in ’12 proving along the way that his 38 year old body – he’ll be 39 in June – still had something left to contribute in this game. Alas, the good feelings were wiped out when he fractured his ankle in the playoffs leading to October surgery. Jeter is progressing well with hie rehab and everyone thinks he will be on the field Opening Day. The question in the fantasy baseball game is should he be in your fantasy lineup?

Jeter is one of the greatest offensive forces in the history of baseball. Just take a quick glance as his all-time rankings with the bat when compared against other shortstops.

1st in hits (3,304)
1st in runs (1,868)
7th in AVG (.313)
8th in OBP (.382)

He’s also been remarkably consistent with 14 different seasons hitting .290 with 10 homers, 10 steals, 50 RBIs and 75 runs scored. No other shortstop has ever had more than seven such seasons (Barry Larkin).

Above I noted that Jeter had a strong 2012, an effort which included a .316 average, 15 homers, 58 RBIs, 99 runs scored and nine steals. For any player that’s damn impressive, let alone a guy who is pushing 40.

Obviously though there is much more to the story than that or why would I bother writing about him?

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Let’s start with the most obvious issue – his health. Again, his ankle should be good to go but he is coming off a significant injury at 38 years old. That has to cause some concern. Another issue that plays off the injury is that he stole only nine bases last season even before he was hurt. Is an aging player, coming off a significant ankle issue, likely to return to stealing 15 plus bases as he did in five of the past six season before last year?

Next is the power. The 15 homers were a three year high and only one less than he hit in 2010-11. It’s also the second highest mark he has posted since 2005. Clearly he shouldn’t be expected to go deep another 15 times. The back of his ball card tells you that. Going a bit deeper it should be noted that he posted a career worst fly ball rate of 15.9 percent. I have to be honest. There are times where numbers catch even The Oracle by surprise, and this is one of those cases. I knew that Jeter was far from the type of batter that spends any time lifting the ball, but under 16 percent of batted balls going upward? That’s akin to the level of oddness that saw Barry Bonds going deep 73 times. The big league average fly ball rate is literally more than double the mark that Jeter posted in ’12 (35 percent last year). Not just that, but Jeter has failed to reach even 20 percent with his fly ball rate in any of the last three seasons. Moreover, Jeter’s 16.1 percent HR/F ratio last season was the second best mark of his career and four of the previous five seasons that number wasn’t even in double-digits. Fifteen homers ain’t happening again.

Is the batting average repeatable? On the surface you’d have to say yes. After all, he only batted three points higher than his career mark of .313. Still, if I was a betting man I’d lay pretty strong odds against a batting average repeat. He hit .270 and .297 in 2010-11. He’s coming off injury. He’s 38 (stop me if you’ve read this before). There’s also that amazingly low fly ball rate. There’s also the insanely high 3.94 GB/FB ratio (Jeter has hit at least 62 percent of his batted balls on the ground the past three years). Jeter depends, to a large extent, on his batted balls not finding a fielders glove. That’s always going to leave him at the whim of the placement of those grounders and the defenders. He also swung at more pitches outside the strike zone than ever before in 2010 (28.2 percent). He upped that mark to 28.8 percent in 2011. Things got even worse in 2012 at 31.1 percent. Overall he swung at 50 percent of pitches last year, an eight year high. Jeter also posted a contract rate of 84.5 percent, a very solid mark, but still a six year low. Pitchers noticed all of that too as they only threw him strikes on 44.9 percent of pitches, the fewest strikes he has ever seen. None of that speaks to a repeat in the batting average category.

If healthy, and he should be, Jeter will still be an effective hitter. He’s simply too talented an experienced to just fall on his face. However, the average is likely to recede. It doesn’t seem probable that he will be stealing 15+ bags either. There is no way he will go deep 15 times again. Add that all up and you would be in a much better place if you looked at his 2011 effort (.297 with six homers, 61 RBIs and 84 runs scored) as the baseline for your 2013 expectations.

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By Ray Flowers

The 2011 Hall of Fame Class

The Hall of Fame vote for 2011 was released today, and unsurprisingly there were two names listed highlighted by the the name of Roberto Alomar, a year after he was denied entry (to all the voters who withheld their vote for Alomar because of the spitting incident, get off your flipping high horse. I’m sure none of you ever did something of questionable moral value). You can read my reasons for having not a scintilla of doubt about the inclusion of Alomar in the Hall of Fame in Who am I? The other player selected was Bert Blyleven who was finally chosen for the Hall in his 14th year on the ballot. Here are the results of the top-5 from this year’s balloting (a player needs to be named on 75% of the ballots to be awarded a spot in the Hall).

Roberto Alomar: 90.0%
Bert Blyleven: 79.7%
Barry Larkin: 62.1%
Jack Morris: 53.5%
Lee Smith: 45.3%

* For the complete results you can visit The Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

Two of my personal favorites failed to reach 45 percent of the votes in Jeff Bagwell (41.7%) and Tim Raines (37.5%). You can find my reasons for supporting Bagwell in HOF: The Case for Bagwell. As for Raines, I wrote a report titled simply HOF: Tim Raines. However, I’ve never written much about Blyleven, so I thought I would share some thoughts on his election. Some facts on Blyleven.

He was named to three All-Star teams.
He won a Cy Young Award.
He won 133 games in his first 10 seasons.
He owns a career winning percentage of .542.
He was top-10 in complete games eight times including four seasons in which he led the league.
He has an ERA+ mark of 1.14 (14 percent better than the league average).

Are you ready to have your mind blown like the first time you saw The Sixth Sense? Those aren’t numbers that belong to Bert Blyleven, they belong to Barry Zito. I’ll give you a moment to comprehend what we are working our way up to here by giving you Blyleven’s real numbers.

Blyleven was named to two All-Star games, one less than Zito.
Blyleven never won a Cy Young Award (he was 3rd in 1984-85).
Blyleven won 148 games his first 10 years, an average of 1.5 wins a year more than Zito.
Blyleven owns a career winning percentage of .534, .008 less than Zito.
Blyleven was top-10 in complete games 12 times but led the league only once.
Blyleven has an ERA+ mark of 118, slightly better than Zito’s 114 mark.

I think my point should be evident, should it not? I’m not saying Barry Zito should be in the Hall of Fame, but I think it’s rather poignant to think that Barry Zito has been the equal of Blyleven for the first 10 seasons of his career. So I ask, is there anyone out there that thinks Zito will one day deserve to be in the Hall of Fame even if he has another 10 years like his first 10? I mean really, Bert Blyleven was inducted into the Hall of Fame for being a very good pitcher for an awfully long period of time, but when did the Hall of Fame became the domain of very good ball players?

Let me hit on Jack Morris before I leave you today. Let’s compare Morris to Blyleven in some major categories and see if there are real differences between the two.

Blyleven: Two All-Star games
J.Morris: Five All-Star games

Blyleven: 0.45 career shares in Cy Young voting
J.Morris: 0.73 career shares in Cy Young voting

Blyleven: 287 wins, top-10 in wins six times
J.Morris: 254 wins, top-10 in wins 12 times

Blyleven: .534 winning percentage, ERA+ of 118
J.Morris: .577 winning percentage, ERA+ of 105

Blyleven: Hall of Fame Monitor (120), Hall of Fame Standards (50)
J.Morris: Hall of Fame Monitor (122), Hall of Fame Standards (39)

Maybe it’s just me, but I certainly don’t see a hell of a lot of difference between those two other than the fact that Blyleven does have a sizable strikeout lead (6.7 K/9 to 5.8 K/9). My point is that maybe all those Morris supporters will just have to remain patient as it appears that, with time, the voting body will eventually install him in the Hall of Fame.

ADDENDUM

I love the passionate response by everyone below in the Comments section (below). Love it. Wish everyone would share their thoughts more to make things interesting. My point was to cause everyone to get engaged with the topic, and they certainly did.

Let me be clear.

1- Zito is NOT a Hall of Fame pitcher. Period.

2- Zito is NOT as good as Blyleven when you take into count the overall performance of Blyleven over the course of 22 years.

I was merely stating that Zito had more Cy Young’s and All-Star appearances, a better winning percentage, a better K/9 mark and was tougher to get a hit off of than Blyleven. Those are facts, and you can read whatever you would like into them, but I was just pointing out that Blyleven’s efforts weren’t vastly different in many respects. I never said Zito was a better pitcher.

As for Blyleven’s accomplishments, they are historically substantial in terms of his overall workload which was immense (nearly 5,000 innings). The question continues to be – should we reward durability, or should the Hall of Fame be for the best players?

Think of it. Blyleven NEVER led the league in wins or ERA. He only led the league in strikeouts once and only once did he lead in WHIP. In addition, despite all his innings, he only led the league in that category twice. If I add that all up, I don’t know if that’s good enough for the Hall of Fame.

By Ray Flowers

The HOF and Ubaldo Jimenez

On Sunday Andre Dawson was officially inducted into the Hall of Fame. An eight time All-Star who is one of only three men in big league history to hit 400 homers while also stealing at least 300 bases (Barry Bonds and Willie Mays are the others), Dawson also has one of the worst OBP (.323) of any player in the Hall of Fame. In fact, it’s the worst mark of any outfielder enshrined at Cooperstown, .020 points below the .343 mark of Lou Brock. Should Dawson have been elected to the HOF? I tackled that very question in The Case of Andre Dawson. If that piece doesn’t cause you some pause about whether or not the athletic outfielder should have been enshrined, perhaps Dawson vs. Alomar will prove to you, once an for all, that not only does Roberto Alomar deserve to be in the Hall of Fame but that Dawson’s credentials might be a little thin.

I actually wrote up a series of piece on players who were eligible for induction into the Hall of Fame this year, and here are those links:

Edgar Martinez – Is there Room for a DH?
HOF: Tim Raines.
Is McGriff Hall Worthy?
HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood?
HOF: Who Am I?

Any here are my final thoughts where I discussed the 2010 voting results.

HOF: What Should Have Been.

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Ubaldo Jimenez is awful. There, I said it, and don’t for a second try and tell me you weren’t thinking the same thing. On June 7th, a mere eight starts ago, Ubaldo had a 0.93 ERA. Heck, on June 18th it was still 1.15. However, the past six outings haven’t looked anything like his first 14 trips to the hill. Here are the numbers:

7.64 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 8.73 K/9, 5.18 BB/9, 1.68 K/BB

The ERA is horrific, the WHIP is terrible, and that walk rate is godawful leading to a decidedly sub par K/BB mark that is well below the big league average of 2.10.

So what happened? It’s called regression people, ever heard of it? Did you really drink so much of that Ubaldo Cool Aid that you actually thought he was going to challenge Bob Gibson’s NL ERA mark of 1.12? Come on now. Did you think he was gonna keep his ERA under 2.00 all year long? I got news for you, that’s only happened twice in baseball since the 21st century began (Pedro Martinez had a 1.74 mark in 2000 and Roger Clemens posted a 1.87 mark in 2005). Again, you kid right?

The truth is that Ubaldo is simply returning to the level of “dominance” instead of the “historic” pace that he flashed early on. He still has a 2.75 ERA, his WHIP is just 1.12, he has nearly a K per inning (120 in 134.1) and he is still 15-2. How rare is that combination? If he maintains that pace for 34 starts this season we’d be looking at something like 25 wins, 200 Ks and a 2.75 ERA. How many pitchers have reached all three of those levels since 2000? It’s a small group of — zero. If we go back to 1990 there still isn’t one member of the group. How about 1980? Still none. You have to go all the way back to to Ron Guidry in 1978 to find a pitcher who reach all three milestones (25-3, 1.74 ERA, 248 Ks).

The bottom line with Ubaldo is that you should cut the guy some slack. Still, I hope you listened when I suggested you sell high on the flamethrower from Colorado because that window for peak value in a trade has been closed completely.

By Ray Flowers

HOF: What Should Have Been

I have spent the better part of the past couple of weeks giving you my thoughts on a myriad of men who were eligible for election into the Baseball Hall of Fame (you can find link to all of those pieces in Is There Room for a DH – just scroll to the bottom for the other reviews). In case you missed it, here is how things played out in the voting that was announced yesterday. Remember, a player must appear on 75 percent of the ballots to gain enshrinement in the Hall of Fame.

77.9% – Andre Dawson
72.4 – Bert Blyleven
73.7 – Roberto Alomar
52.3 – Jack Morris
51.6 – Barry Larkin
47.3 – Lee Smith
36.2 – Edgar Martinez
30.4 – Tim Raines
23.7 – Mark McGwire
22.4 – Alan Trammell
21.5 – Fred McGriff

Obviously only Dawson was enshrined. I don’t exactly get the warm and fuzzies there, but a strong case can clearly be made for him (I did just that arguing for him in a piece you can access in the link above. In fact, I previously covered Dawson, Alomar, Martinez, Raines, McGwire and McGriff). My thoughts on the others who gained at least 20 percent of the vote are as follows.

Bert Blyleven: 287 career victories (27th all-time), 3,071 Ks (5th), 4970 IP (14th). Ten times he finished in the top-10 in ERA, but he won 20 games only once, never led the league in victories or ERA, and basically was a very, very good pitcher for a very long time. Was never great, and if that is what the HOF is for, he shouldn’t make it (he never finished above third in the Cy Young voting). Also, how has he gone from 14.1 percent of the vote in his second year of eligibility (1999) to the cusp of enshrinement?

Roberto Alomar: See link above for my thoughts. Bottom line is that 12 All-Star appearances and 10 Gold Gloves should make you a mortal lock for HOF. What are the voters waiting for – Alomar to discover Adamantium (an X-Men reference for those of you that don’t get the inside joke)?

Jack Morris: Much has been made about the fact that his 3.90 ERA would be the worst of any pitcher in the Hall. Like Blyleven, he was very good for a long time but was he every truly great? You can make the argument he was great in big games, but there is more to a career than a World Series outing or two (ask Mr. Perfect, Don Larson). Morris won “only” 254 games, never finished as even the runner-up for the Cy Young Award, never led the league in ERA or WHIP, and only once paced his league in Ks (232 in 1983). One of the best who shouldn’t be in.

Barry Larkin: A case has been made by Jayson Stark of ESPN, and instead of rehashing all of it I will just link you to the piece titled Underrated Larkin Deserves Spot in Hall. Two salient points. (1) Larkin won nine Silver Slugger awards. There has only been one infielder in history with more than that and his name is Alex Rodriguez. (2) His .815 OPS isn’t great, but it’s better than Cal Ripken (.788) and is actually better than all but five shortstops since 1900 who have accrued at least 5,000 at-bats.

Lee Smith: His total of 478 saves is third all-time. He was named to seven All-Star teams, but at the same time he only finished in the top-10 of the Cy Young voting four times in 18 seasons and owns a 3.03 ERA and 1.26 WHIP, hardly awe inspiring numbers. Another case of really good but never really great despite the huge save total.

Edgar Martinez: See link above for my thoughts. I wasn’t at all surprised he didn’t get in, but with all the “Vote for Martinez” and “I Love Edgar” movements floating around, I’m surprised he only got a third of the vote. Will likely one day make it.

Tim Raines: See link above for my thoughts. A travesty. If he wasn’t one of the five best leadoff men of all-time I’ll eat my left shoe with nary an herb to spice it up.

Mark McGwire: See link above for my thoughts. Again, no shock he is on the outside looking in. Clearly voters are punishing him for his connection with performance enhancing drugs as you cannot, as a rational person, dispute his candidacy based on the numbers.

Alan Trammell: Rob Neyer, about as respected a man as there is at knowing the history of the game combined with sabermetric principles, said this week that Trammel is one of the 10-12 greatest shortstops of all-time. I don’t know if that is true or not, I’m inclined to take Neyer at his word, but I do know that Trammel made six All-Star teams, was a top-10 vote getter for MVP three times, won four Gold Gloves, had 2,365 hits and posted a .285 batting average. He also had a season for the ages in 1987 as he hit .343 with 28 homers, 105 RBI, 109 runs and 21 steals.

Fred McGriff: See link above for my thoughts. Using the smell test he just doesn’t make it. Mind numbingly consistent, he was never the best at his position or truly great.

When I have more time I might lament what the hell the voters are thinking, clearly at least a few of the men and women who make the decision when it comes to entry in the Hall need to be replaced for outright stupidity (what sane person would case a vote for David Segui? – and I’m not making that up, he got one vote this year). Luckily for them, I don’t have time to get into that right now because I’m sure I have a scathing review of the entire process germinating in my mind.

By Ray Flowers

HOF: Tim Raines

Hall of Fame talk is starting to heat up with the announcement of the 2010 inductees mere days away (January 6th). Some players eligible for the first time include Barry Larkin, Andres Galarraga, Fred McGriff, Edgar Martinez and Roberto Alomar (you can read my thoughts on Alomar in Who Am I?). Other players who return hoping to pick up the required 75 percent vote this season include a host of some of the who’s who in the game the past 30 years: Andre Dawson, Bert Blyleven, Lee Smith, Jack Morris, Mark McGwire and Tim Raines. The last name on this list is who I’m going to focus on in this piece.

Long considered the best leadoff man in the National League during his career, Tim Raines had the misfortune of being the second best leadoff hitter in the game when he played. Mind you, there is no reason to hang ones head when you are #2 behind the man widely considered to be the best ever to fill the roll in Rickey Henderson, but clearly Raines falls behind Henderson in almost every way you can possible think of. Here are each man’s career bests in the 5×5 categories.

Raines: .334-18-68-133-90
Henderson:.325-28-74-146-130

Mind you the numbers are pretty close, but when we move to the realm of their career totals, the gap does widen.

Raines: .294-170-980-1,571-808
Henderson: .279-297-1,115-2,295-1,406

By the way, Henderson scored more runs and stole more bases than any man who ever lived.

Still, like I said at the start, the decision to vote for Raines shouldn’t be about Raines vs. Henderson, it should be about how Raines staked up against the competition. In this respect, he did very well.

Raines was named to 7-straight All-Star teams (1981-87).

Raines finished in the top-10 in AVG four times (led league at .334 in 1986).

Raines was top-10 in runs scored eight times (led league twice – 1983, 1987).

Raines led the NL in steals 4-straight years (1981-84). He also finished in the top-10 seven other times.

Raines finished in the top-10 in hits six times.

Raines finished in the top-10 in triples nine times.

Raines finished in the top-10 in OBP seven times (led league in 1986 at .413).

Raines finished in the top-10 in OPS four times.

Obviously Raines was one of the most effective players in the game for the majority of a decade as he enjoyed some tremendous success with the Expos. All told, that success led to some marks that clearly place him amongst the all-time greats that the game has ever seen.

Raines scored 1,571 runs, the 50th best total ever.
Raines produced 2,605 hits, the 73rd best total ever.
Raines stole 808 bases, the 5th best total ever.
Raines produced 1,636 Runs Created, the 53rd best mark ever.
Raines produced a 280.9 Power-Speed Number, the 28th best mark ever.

Yes, Mr. Raines was one hell of a player.

So why has he failed to break even 25 percent in the HOF vote in his first two go round in the voting process? My guess is that Raines fails in the most basic of comparisons – he simply wasn’t the best at what he did during his career failing to live up to the impossibly high standards of Henderson. Is that fair? Certainly not. There are a plethora of players enshrined in the Hall who may not have been “the best” when they were playing, just think of the comparison of Yankee teammates Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig. Should Gehrig have been denied admittance to the Hall since he wasn’t even the best player on his team? Of course not.

In the end I have no idea why Raines has gotten such little respect for what he accomplished as he was clearly the best leadoff man in the National League in the 1980′s. It might take a while for Raines to get his due but I certainly hold out hope that one of these years he will be recognized for what he was, and that was one of the best players every to hit atop of a major league lineup.

DEROSA TO GIANTS?

By Ray Flowers

Getting Warmed Up

On a Monday with everyone is jazzed up about the Home Run Derby that will start in mere minutes, here are some of my thoughts as I try to stay focused enough to write something worthy of reading before I put on my “fan” cap to watch the event.

What’s wrong with rookie contracts? Take this example to heart. Tim Lincecum, you know the guy who won the Cy Young last season and the guy who is starting the All-Star game for the NL after an even better first half this year (10-2, 2.33 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 149 Ks in 127.2 IP), will make $650,000 this season, this a year after he made barely $400,000 during his Cy Young season. So, what in the world is Stephen Strasberg thinking when he and his representation have floated the idea that they are looking for a deal that potentially could reach $50 million before he has thrown a single major league pitch? Sheer folly. That doesn’t mean that Strasburg won’t get $15-20 million though, which just goes to show you that potential, beyond production, still holds sway. For those of you interested in learning more about the 100-mph throwing Strasburg, click on the link to MLB Draft Thoughts who was drafted first overall by the Nationals in the June Entry Draft.

I touched on it the other day in It’s Surreal, but here is yet another reason to be concerned about the direction of the NFL. The Chargers’ Antonio Cromartie admitted that it was hard for him to focus last season because of the off field distractions he faced. What were those distractions? “Last year my head wasn’t in there,” Cromartie said. “I was dealing with my kids and their moms. It had my mind somewhere else.” Apparently the DB has seven children with five women in five different states. There is nothing illegal about doing that, it’s not like he is out dealing drugs like Travis Henry, but I just can’t get my head around why it’s so hard for so many of these professional athletes to practice safe sex? Maybe they should have paid more attention to sex ed in school and less to how much weight they could bench press.

Here are some random thoughts.

Harold Reynolds loves his job. That guys was hoping all around during early BP at the All-Star game on Monday with a huge smile on his face. He may not always seem to be the brightest guy in the world, but he brings passion to his job.

Speaking of the MLB broadcasting teams, Joe Magrane is a bore whereas Al Leiter brings all kinds of passion an insight.

Alex Gordon should be back with the Royals on Friday after missing three months due to hip surgery. Don’t know what to expect from him exactly, but he started off his minor league rehab stint hitting well with a .364 mark through 11 games. No matter what happens I feel confident in stating that I believe he will do better than he did at the start of the season when he hit .095 with a .507 OPS in 21 ABs.

Don’t know how many of you saw it, but minor leaguer James McOwen just lost his minor league hitting streak at 45-consecutive games. “I’m pretty happy with the way the last month and a half has gone. There’re no regrets and, hopefully, I’ll start another one tomorrow.” McOwen, a Single-A outfielder for the Mariners, is batting .347 on the season with 53 RBI in 73 games thanks to the streak that saw him hit a rather amazing .398 over the course of 181 ABs. McOwen did set a California League record, the previous mark was 35 games, but his streak of 45 games was actually just the 8th longest streak in minor league history. Two men, Joe Wilhoit in 1919 and Joe DiMaggio in 1933, both had streaks of over 60 games – Wilhoit went 69 games while Joe D. posted a 61 game streak while playing for the San Francisco Seals. Isn’t it amazing to think that DiMaggio had two hitting streaks of over 55 games?

By Ray Flowers