Early Season Standouts

It’s early and I continue to preach patience in the fantasy baseball game. Hopefully you’re able to heed that advice. Whether you’ve made one move or 11 thus far is irrelevant though to what follows in this piece. I’m just gonna randomly touch on some players that have stood out to me in the early going, so here goes.

Chris Denorfia is a 4th outfielder who doesn’t play every day, but boy can he hit when called upon. Chris is hitting .395 in 38 at-bats this season and dating back to the start of last season he has hit .303 with a .357 OBP over 386 at-bats. He doesn’t have a ton of pop, 11 homers in that time, but he also has a sneaky 15 steals. He’s a great option in NL-only leagues.

Doug Fister improved to 3-0 Tuesday as he lowered his ERA to 2.77 (he also owns a WHIP of 1.10). Overlooked because of his flashy teammates and lack of elite numbers, some have neglected to note that Fister has been very impressive as a Tiger, and I’m not giving him props cause I have nothing else to do. Through 252 innings with the Tigers Fister is 21-11, has a 2.93 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Oh, and that 4.48 K/BB ratio is over the top good. When will he get the respect he deserves Detroit? Isn’t R E S P E C T by Aretha Franklin, one of those that made Detroit into Motown, a song that you should all be singing?

Jedd Gyorko is expected to remain the starter at second even with Chase Headley returning to action. Alex Amarista is lurking if Gyorko continues to struggle, so the question becomes will the rookie continue to struggle or will the Padres eventally turn to Amarista (don’t forget about Logan Forsythe either as he is working his way back from injury)? Jedd has flashed his solid plate discipline, his 0.73 BB/K ratio is proof of that, and he’s still getting on base at a better than league average rate with a .339 OBP even though he’s hitting .240. Still, he’s yet to go deep in 50 at-bats so many are likely disappointed with his effort.

Matt Kemp has never been at a lower place than he is right now. Kemp is hitting .185 with 17 Ks and no homers in 14 games. You know what I say? Buy that guy on the cheap. A breakout is, without question, coming.

Victor Martinez had three hits Tuesday to push his average up to .200. The guy is a .302 career hitter who has hit at least .302 his last three seasons. V-Mart will hit, jujst give him time. Remember, he missed all of last season with that knee injury and it takes some time to get back in the groove. Buy him on the cheap if you can.

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Jordan Pacheco hit .309 last year. He has hit .306 for his career. He’s batting .304 this season. It’s only 582 at-bats in total for the guy, but I think it’s safe to say that he is one of the better depth plays in NL-only leagues. If he ever got full-time work…

Fernando Rodney had 48 saves last year with a historic 0.60 ERA. There’s no chance he’s gonna repeat that. I know, way to go out on a limb. So far he’s allowed five hits and walked a batter while getting just eight outs leading to a 10.13 ERA and 2.25 WHIP. It’s far too early to panic, especially after his great WBC, but don’t say I didn’t warn you.

Pablo Sandoval is fat. Pablo Sandoval is loveable. Pablo Sandoval can hit. Through 13 games he is batting .320 with 14 RBIs. He’s also struck out only three times on the year.

Mike Trout is a player I’ve written extensively about. You all know my thoughts on him. If we allow that he will maintain his current pace over 150 games he would produce the following 5×5 line: .300-11-54-86-11. Obviously even I think he will do much better than that. However, I think it’s fair to be concerned that he has attempted only one steal in 14 games after running 54 times in 139 games last season.

Barry Zito… told you so. Zito was lit up for nine runs while recording eight outs Tuesday against the Brewers. That horrific outing leaves him with a 4.86 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, numbers that aren’t that far off his 4.15 and 1.39 marks of last season.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Barry Zito

The Giants won the World Championship, my thoughts can be found in Nirvana… Again, and Barry Zito was a huge part of that run to greatness. After being left off the roster in the 2010 World Series, Zito proved his mettle by throwing two dominating games against the Cardinals in the NLCS (7.2 IP, 0 ER) and the Tigers in the World Series (5.2 IP, 1 ER). This came on the heels of a season in which he won 15 games for the G-men. Is he back to being someone to target in mixed leagues?

Barry Zito won 12 games in 2010-11. He was also limited to 53.2 innings in 2011, the only time since his rookie season that he has failed to throw 180 innings in a campaign. Those facts, not to mention that he hadn’t been a pitcher anyone could count on in the fantasy game since 2006, led to Zito being on the majority of waiver-wire’s at the start of the 2012 season. However, he blazed it up out of the gates with a 1.67 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his first four starts on his way to his most successful season as a Giants’ hurler. I already noted that he won 15 games, more than noted names like Clayton Kershaw, Adam Wainwright, Mat Latos and Jordan Zimmerman. Heck, he won as many games as Stephen Strasburg. Does that mean that Zito is back to being someone to think about on draft day? Not really (you didn’t really think I was going to say something else, did you?).

For the fourth straight season Zito posted an ERA over 4.00. It shouldn’t be a shock given that his poor work with the Giants has ballooned his ERA to 3.93 for his career, so that 4.15 mark from last season is right in line with what expectations should be. There’s no reason to expect improvement here. This is just the type of pitcher that Zito is at this point of his career. It should also be noted that his xFIP of 4.92 was a 4-year high, and as we continue our look at Zito it will become obvious why that is.

The major league average for WHIP in 2012 was 1.31. Barry Zito had a 1.39 mark in 2012. Moreover, the last time he posted a mark as low as 1.31 was 2005. That’s an awful long time ago to not even be average. There is no reason to think his performance will improve in 2013 in this category either.

Zito struck out 5.57 batters per nine innings in 2012, a full batter below his career 6.64 mark. The 6.64 mark is bad, about a batter below the league average (7.56 in 2012), and that 5.57 mark? You know that is horrible. Does Zito augment that low strikeout total with a strong walk rate? Hardly. His 3.42 per nine mark in 2012 was a 10 year best, and it was worse than the league average of 3.05 in 2012. The resulting 1.63 K/BB ratio of Zito was only slightly off the 1.79 mark he is saddled with for his career, and both marks are pathetically low. When you combine a terrible K mark, a bad BB mark and an average 1.02 GB/FB ratio, the results are usually an average effort. And that’s what we got from Zito – we got an average pitcher who was fortunate in the win-loss column (Zito didn’t lose any of his last 14 starts, including the playoffs with his last “L” coming on August 2nd). There is no way he’ll be able to keep up that winning streak in 2013.

Give Barry Zito full kudos for coming through down the stretch an into the playoffs for the Giants. His outing against the Cardinals is cited by many around the teams as the turnaround that propelled the Giants to their second World Championship in three seasons. On the other side of that glorious finish is the fact that Barry Zito is about as boring a pitcher as there is in the fantasy game. Don’t let the name or the finish fool you into thinking anything else. If you’re in a 12 team mixed league in 2013 don’t even bother thinking about Zito on draft day, and if you are in an NL-only league he’s still nothing more than a late round roster filler because he eats up innings and has a chance at wins.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June20, 2012

(1) Troy Tulowitzki having more tests run. Is his season in doubt?

(2) Mark Trumbo mashing with the big boys. Can’t keep it up, can he?

(3) Barry Zito caving – what a shock.

(4) Should you be worried about Ryan Cook? Maybe?

(5) Aramis Ramirez, predictably, is heating up.

(6) Shaun Marcum says elbow is alright.

(7) Bullpen updates: Jose Valverde, J.J. Putz and John Axford struggling while Carlos Marmol’s arrow is going up.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk.2: What Did We Learn?

 Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

INEXPENSIVE OFFENSIVE HEROES

Mike Aviles, 2B/3B/SS ($75,000 Daily Joust salary): The Red Sox shortstop can hit. He owns a career .288 batting average and is currently batting .290 through 31 at-bats. He’s also popped two long balls, though his power upside is likely sneaking into the double digits in dingers. He also posses speed, he’s stolen 14 bags each of the last two seasons. Given his positional flexibility he’s a nice add to any lineup. His value is likely still heading up though as he appears likely to spend an awful lot of time in the leadoff spot for the Red Sox with the shoulder injury to Jacoby Ellsbury that will keep him out of action for an estimated six weeks.

Yunieksy Betancourt, SS ($68K): He’s actually played second base in five of his six games this year, he’s only played nine games at any position other than shortstop prior to this season, but it certainly hasn’t affected hit ability with the twig in his hands. Yunieksy is batting a robust .389 through 18 at-bats, but let’s not get too carried away here. He hasn’t walked a single time in six games, hasn’t stolen a base, and has scored only three times in six contests. Still, I’m not going to ignore his hot start at the plate, but I’m just trying to be realistic here with a guy who has hit .269 with a .293 OBP for his career.

Matt Carpenter, 1B ($66K): A hot pick up, Carpenter has had himself a whopper of a start to the season. Through eight games he has hit .409. That alone would be exciting. When you add in the 10 RBIs that he’s also produced it’s time to get a bit giddy. Carpenter hit .302 last year in 130 games at Triple-A, but he also hit only 12 homers not showing much pop, something you need from a corner infield option. Lance Berkman is also close to a return to the lineup, and don’t forget that Allen Craig (knee) is likely to be back in a couple of weeks making at-bats possibly hard to come by for Carpenter. There’s nothing wrong with rolling with him in the short-term though (over at Fleaflicker Carpenter has recoded the same average fantasy point total as Paul Konerko and Troy Tulowitzki).

Shelly Duncan, OF ($66K): The Indians lineup is about to get a bit crowded with the addition of Johnny Damon, and the question remains will that eat into the playing time of Duncan. If PT is determined by performance in Cleveland than Duncan shouldn’t be worried about losing any of it, at least not right now. Through eight games he has flashed his trademark power with two homers, a double and six RBI. He’s also walked an impressive eight times helping him to Bondsian .485 OBP. Given that he’s also hitting .320 right now you’d be wise to consider him for your starting lineup since he’s also working on a 5-game hitting streak.

Mark Ellis ($72K): Why am I bothering with a guy who is batting .235 with no homers and just two RBIs? Did you notice that his OBP is .366? Or how about the most interesting number in his line – 10 runs scored in nine games. Matt Kemp and Andre Either have to slow down as the season progresses, but if Ellis maintains a spot in the daily lineup, and is hitting out of the two hole, he’ll end up being a pretty valuable source of runs, and that average will certainly climb as well.

LOSER OF THE WEEK

Kendrys Morales ($110K): From April 9th through April 15th Morales had, wait for it, one hit in 18 at-bats. Given that he was also 0-for-5 on April 8th that means he has one hit in 23 at-bats. I know it’s early, and I always talk about sample size being so important, so I’m not going to hammer Morales – yet. I will say this, which is the same thing I was saying three weeks ago when people were going bonkers to add Morales after he had a hot stretch to end Spring Training, the guy is coming back from an injury after missing more than a season and a half. As great as he looked to end spring he has looked equally putrid once games started counting (.200-0-0 through 30 at-bats). The game just isn’t that easy folks.

PITCHERS WHO ARE PERFORMING

Bartolo Colon ($173K): He’s 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and an extremely impressive 7.00 K/BB ratio. I’m still not buying it. In a quirk of the schedule, thanks to MLB’s desire to play in Japan, Colon has pitched against the Mariners in all three of his games. I think, on a good day, that I could get many of the Mariners batters out. Be careful not to overemphasize his early season success.

Kyle Drabek ($195K): The former 1st round draft pick has killed it in two starts as he’s learned to just relax when guys get on base versus over thinking and trying to over analyze everything. He’s 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, but do two starts wipe out a miserable 2011 effort that say him post a 6.06 ERA, 1.81 WHIP an a 0.93 K/BB ratio (yes, he walked more batters than he struck out last season)? I need more than two starts for me to feel like he’s totally over the hump.

Barry Zito ($215 K): Currently the 77th most expensive SP in the DailyJoust game, Zito has pitched his brains out – so far (1-0, 1.13 ERA in 16 IP). Be honest with your assessment here though. The last time he posted an ERA under 4.00 was 2006. The last time he had a winning record was 2006. He’s also struck out only eight batters in 16 innings and his current walk rate of 0.56 per nine, well I somehow don’t think he’s going to keep that up since he’s never posted a season long mark below 3.06, and that was way back in 2002.

DAILY CONTEST

MLB – Tournament – Mon, Apr 16th – King Arthur’s $50BB Hi Cap Daily Free For All over at DailyJoust.com.

Single entry. No entry fee. $50 prize pool payable in Bonus Bucks. Bonus Bucks can be used as entry fee for an cash entry contests on Daily Joust. Top 15 places paid. Winner also gets a King Arthur badge.

Prize: Top

•1 – $10.00
•2 – $5.00
•23 – $5.00

etc. (it pays out down to 15th place).

Also, if you deposit $25 in your account you can get a 40% deposit bonus, and who doesn’t like free money?

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your crunk on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Derek Jeter: Friday he faces Ervin Santana. Jeter is a rather amazing 17-for-38 against the righty with three homers (that’s good for a .447 average). Teammate Robinson Cano is hitting .344 with four homers in 32 at-bats against Santana.

Shin-Soo Choo: Friday he faces Luke Hochevar who he simply hammers into the Dark Ages. Choo has 13 hits in 23 at-bats leading to a .565 average. In addition to all the hits, he’s doing something with them as he has four doubles, three homers and 10 RBI. Impressive.

Chipper Jones: Friday he faces Randy Wolf who he beats around like a pinata. In 53 career at-bats Jones has four bombs and 10 RBI. He’s also hitting .377 with a 1.228 OPS. It’s a great match up for Chipper. However, it seems to be an awful match up for his teammate Michael Bourn as the speedster has all of one hit in 17 at-bats against Wolf including seven punchouts.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

R.A. Dickey: Friday he faces the Phillies, a team he has had a lot of success against. In six career starts covering 38 innings, R.A. has a 2.61 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 2.70 K/BB ratio against the Fightin’ Phils.

Cliff Lee: Friday he faces the Mets. It’s only 21 innings, but the guy has a 0.43 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 3.40 K/BB ratio against the Metropolitans. He’s pretty much always money though regardless of the opposition.

Clayton Richard: Friday he faces the Dodgers, a team he has thoroughly dominated with a 2.18 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 45.1 innings. Sometimes things just don’t make sense, but you can’t argue with the results.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Carlos Lee: Faces the often wild and tempestuous Carlos Zambrano. Lee not only has a 1.098 OPS in 67 career at-bats against Big Z, he’s also had more walks than strikeouts (eight to seven), while hitting .358 with five homers and 15 RBI.

Jhonny Peralta: Faces Gavin Floyd whom he has 10 hits in 31 at-bats against (.323). He’s also gone deep two times leading to a seven RBI. Other Tigers with success against Floyd include Ryan Raburn (.375 in 32 at-bats), though he is really struggling on the young season (.105 through five games).

Placido Polanco: Faces Jonathon Niese who he has hit .429 against in 21 at-bats. Polanco has hit four doubles helping him to a .619 SLG, and he’s driving in six runs against he Mets’ lefty.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Joe Wieland: Faces the Dodgers starting in place of the injured Dustin Mosley. The game will be played in Los Angeles, a park that has played as the 14th lowest scoring ball yard in the National League the last three years according to Park Indices (nine percent below the league average). The Dodgers as a team haven’t exactly been impressive on the early year either hitting .204 with a .306 OBP and a mere .363 SLG.

Carlos Zambrano: Faces the Astros on Saturday. Though I noted how Carlos Lee kills Zambrano, non one else on the Astros has done much of anything against him. In addition, the guy has flat out owned the ‘Stros in his career. Check out the numbers: 16-8, 2.72 ERA, 1.14 WHIP with 186 Ks in 218 innings. Basically he’s been what Ricky Romero (15-11, 2.92 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 178 Ks in 225 IP) was last season when he’s faced the Astros.

Barry Zito: Faces the Pirates in San Francisco. The Pirates are currently the worst hitting team in baseball as they are batting .199 with a .241 OBP, 293 SLG and 11 runs scored in six games. Zito is also coming off his first shutout since 2003 and he has a 3.41 ERA in five starts against the Pirates. Are you feeling lucky punk (thanks for that one Dirty Hairy)?

CONTESTS

Finally, here are two of the main contests you might be interested in (there are many other options to sign up for at Daily Joust, so don’t think you are limited to just this duo).

The $500 King Richard Survivor Tourney is on Fridays. The tournament includes 32 participants on Day 1. Then it’s paired down to 16 on Day 2, eight on Day 3 etc. Basically, the players in the top half each day move on to the next day. The winner end ups with $195, on just a $20 entry fee, and the winner is also added into the MLB Super Joust III tournament in September! Super Joust II is April 18th and has $10,000 in prizes up for grabs. If that wasn’t enough of a reason to get excited, maybe the two tickets that the winner gets to the NBA Finals will help get your blood pumping.

MLB 50/50 Survivor Tournament. A $20 entry fee gets you entered in the tournament (all other rounds free). There are five rounds, top half per round qualify for next round. Payouts by round are $5/15/25/50/100 with the final round winner getting one of the spots in the $10,000 NBA Super Joust tournament on April 18 with a shot at those two NBA Finals tickets.

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link.

By Ray Flowers 

Player Profile: Alfonso Soriano

Alfonso Soriano gets no respect. He gets dogged for not producing a strong batting average, for not stealing bases anymore, and for being vastly overpaid. Even with all of that, I’m still here to tell you that Soriano might just be a strong draft day add because everyone is so down on the former 40/40 man from the Cubs that he could very easily represent a solid value add. The facts.

(1) Soriano has hit .241, .258 and .244 the past three years. Among players with at least 1,500 plate appearances the last three seasons Soriano’s .248 batting average is 117th behind guys like Yuniesky Bentancourt (.252) and Jose Lopez (.250).

(2) Soriano has stolen all of 16 bases the past three years. From 2001-2008 Soriano swiped at least 19 bases each season.

(3) Soriano signed an 8-year deal for $136 million in 2006. He’s owned $18 million each of the next three years. Think of it this way. He’s the hitting version of Barry Zito (the Giants pitcher is owed $39 million the next two years with an $18 million club option or a $7 million buyout for 2014).

So why in the world am I bothering to waste my valuable time writing about Soriano? Here’s why.

(1) Soriano has hit at least 20 homers each season since 2002. Even the last four years when Soriano has failed to record 500 at-bats in a single season, he’s still had efforts of 29, 20, 24 and 26 homers. Among outfielders who have played in the National League Soriano’s total of 99 homers is fifth just one homer behind Jay Bruce for the fourth spot (Ryan Braun had 127, Matt Kemp 111 and Jayson Werth 107). Even if we add in all outfielders regardless of league Soriano’s mark of 99 homers is still tied for 8th beset with Matt Holliday and Josh Hamilton.

(2) Soriano has posted at least 75 RBI in three of the past four seasons. He’s also racked up 75 RBI in eight of the last 10 seasons. Moreover, Soriano’s total of 88 RBI last year was one more than Giancarlo Stanton, six more than Dan Uggla and Brandon Phillips, and 13 more than Matt Holliday. Heck, it was only one less than Andrew McCutchen’s total of 89 and it was the same total as Justin Upton’s 88.

(3) Soriano, according to MockDraftCentral, is going off the board as the 83rd outfielder at 238th overall. I may be off my rocker here, but Soriano is going behind guys like Raul Ibanez (232), Chris Heisey (233), Domonic Brown (236) and Jason Bay (237). Does that seem right to you? Ibanez is likely to be a part-time DH with the Yankees. Heisey looks like a 4th outfielder in Cincinnati now that the Reds have signed Ryan Ludwick. Brown is likely to spend at least half the year in Triple-A (see the comments by GM Ruben Amaro Jr. who suggested that Brown could spend the entire 2012 season in the minors). Bay has hit 18 homers with 104 RBI the last two seasons while hitting .251. You really want all four of those guys before Soriano?

I’m not saying Soriano is a superstar, or that he’s a building block – he is not. However, I do think that he is being overlooked, and the data supports me. Soriano isn’t an option to help in the average or stolen base columns, but lots of players we roster in the fantasy game have deficiencies. However, when you just look at what Soriano did last season you are smacked in the face with the fact that only 14 outfielders in the game hit at least 25 homers with 85 RBI last season. Given that he is going off the board in the 80′s at the outfield position on draft day, you have to see my point right? Grab Soriano as your 5th outfielder and watch him rack up the homers and the RBI… at least he’s still good for that.

Sign up to play fantasy baseball with Yahoo and help out BaseballGuys.

By Ray Flowers

A Day of Struggles

You’re probably asking yourself why I have a picture of some oddly dressed man tilling the soil accompanying the piece today? The reason is that I’m haunted by gardeners. It seems like there is someone outside my office blowing leaves on a daily basis with one of those gas powered jobs. I swear it’s flipping annoying. Why can’t they all just get together and make Tuesday gardening day? Maybe I’ll get on that in my free time.

There have been three no-hitters thrown this year, and each pitcher that tossed one had a losing record at the time of their no-no: Justin Verlander was 2-3, Francisco Liriano was 1-4 while Ervin Santana was 5-8 meaning we got three no-hitters from guys who were a combined 8-15. What is it that I always say about win-loss records…

A couple of pitchers who just aren’t getting it done of late – here’s a lefty and a righty.

Barry Zito: 10.25 ERA over his last three starts.
Joel Pineiro: 14.85 ERA over his last four starts.

Zito is now on the DL with a foot issue, and Pineiro could have pitched his way out of the Angel’s starting rotation with his recent work (optoins include Garrett Richards, Hisanori Takahashi and Trevor Bell).

David Wright is back. Since he returned from the DL, he was on the outs because of a back issue, he has hit .392 with 13 RBI. At the other end of the spectrum, you know the end that you don’t want to have right in your face, Adam Lind has hit .093 the past two weeks. How is that possible? In case you haven’t noticed, Lind’s average is down to .273 as he has hit .196 over his last 27 games. Since we’re talking about struggling hitters, I felt I had to mention Matt Joyce. The Rays’ slugger, and I use that term loosely, has hit .241 in 17 games since the All-Star break which is actually a massive improvement over the .173 he hit in June and .184 he hit in July. The duo has rather similar totals to this point of the year.

Joyce: .282-15-50-54 with a .845 OPS
Lind: .273-19-59-43 with a .800 OPS

WHO AM I?

I have a better ERA than James Shields, Scott Baker, Jon Lester, Felix Hernandez, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee.

I have a better WHIP than all but four pitchers in baseball.

I have more strikeouts than Bud Norris, Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster, Zack Greinke, Yovani Gallardo, Jon Lester, Matt Cain and Josh Beckett.

Who am I?

Alex Rodriguez is an idiot. He did performance enhancing drugs, he dated Cameron Diaz and caused a nauseating scene at the Super Bowl which I detailed in A Question, A Statement, A Pukefest. Now there are allegations of underground gambling. I’m telling you, I just don’t get it. Why do athletes systematically engage in self destructive behavior? Perhaps it’s the sense of entitlement they feel because people have been kissing their asses since they were old enough to wipe them on their own. Just makes me sick.

The answer to the question – Who Am I? -  is the Angels’ Dan Haren. The Angel’s ace has an 11-6 record, 2.89 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 131 Ks. Haren is currently the 21st most valuable player in baseball – at least according to Yahoo Sports.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June23, 2011

(1) Who on the Twins isn’t hurt? The names are astounding: Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Denard Span, Jason Kubel, Jim Thome, Kevin Slowey, Joe Nathan… Despite that, they just keep on winning.

(2) A’s demote Daric Barton, called up Chris Carter. Will also use Jemile Weeks at second with Mark Ellis serving as a utility player.

(3) Bullpen situations – Astros (Mark Melancon), Dodgers (Jonathan Broxton), Rangers (Nefatli Feliz).

(4) Ryan Vogelsong making history for the Giants.

By Ray Flowers

The 2011 Hall of Fame Class

The Hall of Fame vote for 2011 was released today, and unsurprisingly there were two names listed highlighted by the the name of Roberto Alomar, a year after he was denied entry (to all the voters who withheld their vote for Alomar because of the spitting incident, get off your flipping high horse. I’m sure none of you ever did something of questionable moral value). You can read my reasons for having not a scintilla of doubt about the inclusion of Alomar in the Hall of Fame in Who am I? The other player selected was Bert Blyleven who was finally chosen for the Hall in his 14th year on the ballot. Here are the results of the top-5 from this year’s balloting (a player needs to be named on 75% of the ballots to be awarded a spot in the Hall).

Roberto Alomar: 90.0%
Bert Blyleven: 79.7%
Barry Larkin: 62.1%
Jack Morris: 53.5%
Lee Smith: 45.3%

* For the complete results you can visit The Baseball Writers’ Association of America.

Two of my personal favorites failed to reach 45 percent of the votes in Jeff Bagwell (41.7%) and Tim Raines (37.5%). You can find my reasons for supporting Bagwell in HOF: The Case for Bagwell. As for Raines, I wrote a report titled simply HOF: Tim Raines. However, I’ve never written much about Blyleven, so I thought I would share some thoughts on his election. Some facts on Blyleven.

He was named to three All-Star teams.
He won a Cy Young Award.
He won 133 games in his first 10 seasons.
He owns a career winning percentage of .542.
He was top-10 in complete games eight times including four seasons in which he led the league.
He has an ERA+ mark of 1.14 (14 percent better than the league average).

Are you ready to have your mind blown like the first time you saw The Sixth Sense? Those aren’t numbers that belong to Bert Blyleven, they belong to Barry Zito. I’ll give you a moment to comprehend what we are working our way up to here by giving you Blyleven’s real numbers.

Blyleven was named to two All-Star games, one less than Zito.
Blyleven never won a Cy Young Award (he was 3rd in 1984-85).
Blyleven won 148 games his first 10 years, an average of 1.5 wins a year more than Zito.
Blyleven owns a career winning percentage of .534, .008 less than Zito.
Blyleven was top-10 in complete games 12 times but led the league only once.
Blyleven has an ERA+ mark of 118, slightly better than Zito’s 114 mark.

I think my point should be evident, should it not? I’m not saying Barry Zito should be in the Hall of Fame, but I think it’s rather poignant to think that Barry Zito has been the equal of Blyleven for the first 10 seasons of his career. So I ask, is there anyone out there that thinks Zito will one day deserve to be in the Hall of Fame even if he has another 10 years like his first 10? I mean really, Bert Blyleven was inducted into the Hall of Fame for being a very good pitcher for an awfully long period of time, but when did the Hall of Fame became the domain of very good ball players?

Let me hit on Jack Morris before I leave you today. Let’s compare Morris to Blyleven in some major categories and see if there are real differences between the two.

Blyleven: Two All-Star games
J.Morris: Five All-Star games

Blyleven: 0.45 career shares in Cy Young voting
J.Morris: 0.73 career shares in Cy Young voting

Blyleven: 287 wins, top-10 in wins six times
J.Morris: 254 wins, top-10 in wins 12 times

Blyleven: .534 winning percentage, ERA+ of 118
J.Morris: .577 winning percentage, ERA+ of 105

Blyleven: Hall of Fame Monitor (120), Hall of Fame Standards (50)
J.Morris: Hall of Fame Monitor (122), Hall of Fame Standards (39)

Maybe it’s just me, but I certainly don’t see a hell of a lot of difference between those two other than the fact that Blyleven does have a sizable strikeout lead (6.7 K/9 to 5.8 K/9). My point is that maybe all those Morris supporters will just have to remain patient as it appears that, with time, the voting body will eventually install him in the Hall of Fame.

ADDENDUM

I love the passionate response by everyone below in the Comments section (below). Love it. Wish everyone would share their thoughts more to make things interesting. My point was to cause everyone to get engaged with the topic, and they certainly did.

Let me be clear.

1- Zito is NOT a Hall of Fame pitcher. Period.

2- Zito is NOT as good as Blyleven when you take into count the overall performance of Blyleven over the course of 22 years.

I was merely stating that Zito had more Cy Young’s and All-Star appearances, a better winning percentage, a better K/9 mark and was tougher to get a hit off of than Blyleven. Those are facts, and you can read whatever you would like into them, but I was just pointing out that Blyleven’s efforts weren’t vastly different in many respects. I never said Zito was a better pitcher.

As for Blyleven’s accomplishments, they are historically substantial in terms of his overall workload which was immense (nearly 5,000 innings). The question continues to be – should we reward durability, or should the Hall of Fame be for the best players?

Think of it. Blyleven NEVER led the league in wins or ERA. He only led the league in strikeouts once and only once did he lead in WHIP. In addition, despite all his innings, he only led the league in that category twice. If I add that all up, I don’t know if that’s good enough for the Hall of Fame.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: Pitchers Dominate the News

Wednesday has been a day filled with plenty of news with most of it focused on the men who take the hill. There’s also a bit in here at the end about that rich guy who will patrol the outfield for the Nationals for those of you looking for a hitting fix.

Rich Harden: The flame throwing righty has reportedly agreed to a one year deal for $1.5 million to return to the club that he began his major league career with – the Athletics (there are another $1.5 million available in incentives). The deal will not become official for a couple of days yet as Harden still has to pass a physical – clearly not a given at this point. Early reports suggest that the A’s are looking at Harden as a bullpen option more than a challenger for a starting role, but you have to think they might be tempted to give him a shot at the 5th starters role. Regardless of where he pitches he is a wild card. Coming off a career worst 5.58 ERA and 7.34 K/9 marks – this guy owns career marks of 3.63 and 9.13 – Harden will be the quintessential late game flier. I’ll tell you this. Even with his average fastball sitting at just 90.5 mph last season, I wouldn’t want to face this guy coming out of the pen. Can you imagine batters trying to get their bats on that heater and his amazingly sinking change up? That sounds like a recipe for success if you ask me.

Cliff Lee Update: The final details of his contract are in. The Phillies will be paying the 32 year old lefty $120 million over five years. There is also a vesting option for $27.5 million (if he doesn’t reach the needed incentives in the deal, he would pickup a $12.5 million buyout meaning the deal comes to at least $135 million over the course of six years). A couple of obvious questions that need to be answered.

Does this signing make the Phillies better? Are you on crack? Of course it does. It not only does that, it makes them World Series favorites.

Does this deal give the Phillies the best starting rotation in baseball? Without a doubt it does.

Was this a smart deal for the team to enter into? This is a serious question that could play out very badly for the Phillies in the long run.

(1) If history is a guide, this was a terrible decision. This was the sixth $100+ million deal ever awarded to a pitcher. Here are the first five with a grade.

CC Sabathia (7 years, $161 million): So far, so good. An incomplete “A.”

Johan Santana (6 years, $135): He was great for one year and then solid in two. He had shoulder surgery and will likely miss half the year though in 201. An incomplete “B-” that grade could get much, much worse.

Barry Zito (7 years, $126 million): He’s stayed healthy and given the team innings. But all you need to know about his value is the fact that he was left off the playoff roster. An incomplete “D+”

Mike Hampton (8 years, $121 million): In a word – awful. “F.”

Kevin Brown (7 years, $105 million): Continually injured, he pitched well when healthy but for the duration of the deal he was merely average. “C-.”

(2) Does it make any sense to give a pitcher a deal that is this long when he is 32 years old? What this deal leads to is that at 35, 36 and 37 years of age Lee will be making $25 million a year. When he is 38 he will make either $12.5 or $27.5 million (depending on whether or not his option is picked up). If you think that sounds like a good idea I bet you are also the fella who would trade Chase Utley for Aaron Hill if he hit .220 in April.

The bottom line is that this signing gives the Phillies a magnificent chance to win the World Series in 2011, but they could pay a dear price in the long run for that short-term success.

Pitchers on the Market: Fausto Carmona, Zack Greinke and Carlos Zambrano

Greinke will be the most costly to acquire of this trio, and I touched on his situation a couple of days ago in Hot Stove: December 13, 2010.

Carmona is being viewed by some clubs as a cheaper fall back option if they aren’t able to get Greinke in a deal. Everyone knows that Carmona is nowhere near as impressive as Greinke, but he also won’t cost near as much to pick up. No matter where he ends up, Fausto just isn’t a very good fantasy option. While he throws an exploding sinker that can lead to wonderful outings, he is also a disaster when it comes to throwing strikes. I’ll give the guy some credit, he did knock his BB/9 mark down to a solid 3.08 last year, but he owns a 3.67 career rate and was over five per nine in 2008 and 2009. Carmona is also far from a strikeout option. In fact, despite throwing 210.1 innings last season, his total of 124 Ks was less than the totals of guys like Kevin Millwood (132) and Kyle Davies (126).

Zambrano is a very intriguing option. The most volcanic personality in the game, Big Z is as capable of throwing a no-hitter as he is likely to vent his childhood frustrations on an unsuspecting Gatorade cooler. The guy is just a flat out mess. At the same time, he rebounded from banishment in late June to allow two or fewer earned runs in each of his last 14 appearances during which time he posted a stellar 1.58 ERA. It likely wouldn’t take a hell of a lot to pry him from the Cubs given that he is due $17.85 million in 2011, $18 million in 2012 and $19.25 million on an option. Clearly if the Cubs want to move him to another club they are going to have to open their wallets big time and pay a large portion of that coin.

Jayson Werth: He was introduced officially at a press conference today, and manager Jim Riggleman mentioned that Werth might be asked to play center field against left-handed pitching. That means a couple of things. First, Nyjer Morgan and Roger Bernadina better not buy a house because they aren’t in the club’s daily plans. Second, Michael Morse could end up getting a lot more playing time than some people think in right field. Don’t overlook Morse. In 618 career at-bats he has hit .291 with 21 homers, 88 RBI and 73 runs scored. He could be a wonderful NL-only option this season.

By Ray Flowers