Hot Stove: December 10, 2010

With the Winter Meetings complete, the news is starting to slow a bit in the world of the Hot Stove, but there are still plenty of attention worthy events taking place.

Jay Bruce: The Reds didn’t want to risk alienating their young power hitting star, and with the arbitration process being one that could send his contract out of sight, the Reds opted for cost certainty by locking up Bruce with a 6-year, $51 million deal (there is also a club option for $12 million). Bruce is coming off his best season of .281 with 25 homers and 70 RBI, and he kicked things into warp drive in the second half of the season pulling a Troy Tulowitzki late in the year with 15 homers, 29 RBI and a .338 average over his last 43 games. I’m all for clubs signing their young stars to deals like this. It’s a certain risk, especially when you consider that Bruce hasn’t been an All-Star performer for more than about 65 games in his career, but if clubs don’t sign their players to deals like this they risk losing their young stars through free agency (The End of Baseball?). The Reds are now focused on signing Joey Votto to a long-term deal, though that negotiation will likely be a bit more difficult after Votto won the NL MVP Award.

Ryan Garko: What, he is still playing baseball? Yes he is, though you will have to travel to Korea to watch him play in 2011.

Zack Greinke: The Royals continue to listen to offers for their ace, but GM Dayton Moore said the team is not actively soliciting offers for the hurler. It seems like Greinke will be dealt once the Cliff Lee saga concludes, and if the Rangers lose out on Lee, expect them to go all in to add Greinke.

Cliff Lee: He is taking his time to sift through at least two offers that appear to be for 7-years from the Yankees and Rangers. As former GM Steve Phillips said yesterday on The Fanball Drive on Sirius/XM Radio, he has some serious concerns about a contract that long for a pitcher. As he pointed out, a player breaks/tears something and he rehabs the injury to come back at nearly 100 percent. A similar injury to a pitcher could cause that pitcher to return at 85 percent, or worse yet, even end his career. By the way, how did those $100+ million deals for hurlers Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito and Johan Santana work out?

Hideki Matsui: Spurned by Adrian Beltre who laughably suggested that he would love to play for the Athletics (a total B.S. move designed to drive up his cost on the open market), the A’s seem to have their sites set on Hideki Matsui. Godzilla is coming off a .274-21-84 season with the Angels, and he has knocked in at least 84 runs in each of the six seasons in his career in which he has come to bat at least 450 times. So even though he is old an unexciting, he is still productive at the dish. As for Beltre, it would appear that Athletics have moved on after he rejected their 5-year, $64 million deal (to be fair he never rejected it as he actually never officially responded). Reports suggest that Beltre is looking for $70-$85 million over five years. Will anyone pony up that much dough?

Vicente Padilla: Signed a 1-year, low dollar deal ($2 million) to return to the Dodgers. He is being viewed as a jack-of-all trades option who could start, help out in long relief, and potentially even close if need be. He is 33 years old and coming off a wildly successful season that saw him post a 1.08 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 7.96, but ff history is a guide, he will not repeat that success as the K-rate and WHIP were career bests. He also posted a 4.07 ERA, his best mark in seven seasons. It’s a minimal investment for the Dodgers and a good signing, but be careful with Padilla in the fantasy game.

Jose Reyes: The 7-year, $142 million deal that Carl Crawford signed could impact the Mets ability to sign Reyes long-term. Working in the final year of his current deal ($11 million), if Reyes bounces back to his pre-injury form you can better believe he will use Crawford’s deal as a starting point for negotiations. Will that lead the Mets to move Reyes at some point prior to the trading deadline?

George Sherrill: Signed a 1-year deal for $1.2 million to join the Braves, Sherrill doesn’t figure to be in the closer’s mix as the team will likely turn over the 9th to Craig Kimbrel and potentially Jonny Venters if the situation dictates that move. Sherrill’s numbers look awful – 6.69 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP over 36.1 innings – but he was still death on lefties holding them to a .192 average. He’ll have solid value as a holds option in NL-only leagues.

Justin Upton: It appears nearly certain that he will remain with the Diamondbacks. According to a report, GM Kevin Towers only talked to one team about the talented outfielder at the Winter Meetings which seems to suggest one of two things. (1) The D’backs asking price was prohibitive to getting a deal done. (2) Teams were scared off by the continued issues that Upton has had with his shoulder. It’s probably for the best anyway as the D’backs don’t have anywhere near the financial resources to replace Upton’s productivity. Just 23 years old, Upton has averaged 22 homers, 78 RBI, 79 runs and 19 steals in his two full seasons all the while hitting .287. Kind of makes you wonder though – why in the world would the Diamondbacks even be entertaining offers for their burgeoning superstar? Perhaps that wing of his is a long-term concern?

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: NLCS Preview

Ray Flowers breaks down the National League Championship Series with a position by position breakdown of the Phillies and the Giants. Here is a link to the ALCS Preview in case you missed it.

By Ray Flowers

The Case of Jon Niese

On Monday I profiled Barry Zito, you can find that write up at The Case of Barry Zito, after seeing him twirl a gem on Friday night against the Mets. There wasn’t just one lefty who was dealing it on that night as Jonathan Niese of the Mets allowed a mere run in seven innings of work. He wasn’t quite as good as Zito who tossed eight shutout innings, but Niese was good enough that I thought it would be wise to revisit my take on his value heading into the second half because to this set of eyeballs he looked very, very good on that night.

Niese, who actually possesses a repertoire that is fairly close to the one that is featured by Zito (with the addition of about three to four mph on his fastball), has been extremely effective of late. If you remove his horrible outing on June 22nd when he allowed six runs in just 4.2 innings against the Tigers, Niese has thrown up 7-straight “quality starts.” In that time he has allowed two or fewer earned runs five times, and over his last four starts, despite a 2-2 record, he has a 1.63 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 8.13 K/9 and a 3.57 K/BB ratio. Yeah, he hasn’t just been good, he has been Kim Kardashian in a bikini hot. Speaking of Kim, I’m not going to sit here and say that she isn’t a looker, but would I be insane to suggest that her sister Kourtney is actually hotter? Back to baseball.

If I’m going to suggest paying close attention to Zito in the second half as I did in the previous piece, I’d be stupid not to offer the same advice with Niese, especially when you compare the performance of each to the other.

Niese: 3.44 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 7.17 K/9, 2.48 K/BB, 1.55 GB/FB
Zito: 3.51 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 6.66 K/9, 1.90 K/BB, 0.82 GB/FB

Neither lefty is a strikeout machine, but I much prefer the 7+ mark of Niese to the mark in the 6′s level of Zito. I also like the profile of Niese more given that his GB/FB ratio is greatly enhanced compared to the fly ball tendencies of Mr. Zito.

Is it possible that I haven’t been willing to give Niese his due? Based upon what my eyes saw last week, and the review of the numbers I just quickly went through, it’s fairly evident that my New York bias has precluded me from noticing that the young lefty from the Mets is pitching at a pretty high level right now and that he shouldn’t be on waivers in mixed leagues.

Fun with Numbers

Last week in Numbers: A Look Back, I took a look at some of the outstanding numbers posted by Hall of Fame ballplayers. I wanted to close the piece today with another couple of noteworthy accomplishments from the annals of the game.

* In 1890 Amos Rousie walked an all-time record 289 batters in a season in his second year as a professional. You can forgive that walk total given that he worked 548.2 innings that season. Oh yeah, he also completed 56 of his 62 starts for the New York Giants. Last season the entire National League completed 77 games.

* Speaking of innings pitched, how does that mark of 548.2 rank in the history of the game? Try just 37th. In fact, there have been 13 seasons in big league history in which a hurler tossed more than 600 innings with the record being 680 by Will White in 1879. That year White completed every single one of his 75 starts on his way to 43 victories for the Cincinnati Reds. One other note. He was pretty stingy with a 1.99 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP.

* No pitcher in the history of the game was harder to hit than Nolan Ryan. Over the course of his career he allowed 6.56 hits per nine innings. For context, Mariano Rivera has posted a mark of 6.92 in his career.

By Ray Flowers

The Case of Barry Zito

I went to the Giants and Mets game last Friday night, and besides the fact that I had a great time with my family, I also was able to witness one of the better pitched games of the big league season as the Giants emerged victorious by the score of 1-0. In that game, oft put down Barry Zito twirled a gem allowing a mere two hits with 10 strikeouts over eight shutout innings as he baffled the Mets all night with his change of speeds and his trademark 12-to-6 curve. So, how serious should you take Barry Zito as a fantasy option in mixed leagues for the second half?

Zito currently has a 3.51 ERA, and after 3-seasons in San Francisco with a mark over 4.00 that is obviously some major improvement. Zito also has a 1.26 WHIP, again another San Fran best (1.35 was is his best mark in the orange and black). Has he pitched better than in years past, but has he merely been lucky in 2010? According to Fielding Independent Pitching ERA his mark is 3.75, and that would be his best mark since 2001. Zito also has a 3.28 Component ERA and a 3.84 DIPS ERA, so he has pitched pretty well this season, especially compared to that past couple of years as he has struggled to live up to the expectations of his $126 million deal.

As for his WHIP, you can thank a couple of things for his return to better than league average in that measure. First off he is two tenths below his career BB/9 mark of 3.71 at 3.51, and fewer walks obviously lead to fewer runners on base (yeah, I just typed that completely asinine comment. Perhaps we should blame the copious amount of vodka I drank this afternoon for that). That walk rate would also be his best mark since 2004. Secondly, Zito continues to be an extremely difficult batter to get a hit off of. He’s currently sporting a .239 batting average against, an exact match for his career mark, and his best mark since 2005 when he held hitters to a .221 mark. The good news is that his hit rate is .279, .004 points above his career mark, so clearly he isn’t operating at a level that makes you think a regression is coming when the hits start falling. At the same time his BAA could increase in the second half given that his current line drive rate is 17.4 percent – it’s been over 20 percent each of the past three years.

All of that brings up an interesting point. I know it’s arbitrary and really has no basis for mattering one iota, but Zito has clearly been a better pitcher in the second half of the season in his career, and by a substantial margin. Here is the data.

Pre All-Star: 65-70, 4.18 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 6.61 K/9, 1.75 K/BB, .250 BAA
Post All-Star: 76-40, 3.39 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 6.92 K/9, 1.91 K/BB, .224 BAA

Usually I don’t put too much value in breakdowns like this, but in the case of Zito the data is so stark that it must be taken seriously.

Zito is a mixed league option right now, and he figures to be in the second half as well. At the same time his K/9 mark (6.66), K/BB rate (1.90) and GB/FB ratio (0.82) are pretty much league average, so any improvement in his performance in the second half might be hard to come by. Still, he doesn’t figure to be an anchor in the ratio categories, but when he is twirling that knee buckling curve of his like he was on Friday night there aren’t many hurlers who are more fun to watch.

By Ray Flowers

The Case of Tim Hudson

A competitor of the first degree, Tim Hudson has been greatly overlooked for the majority of his career. First he was somewhat hidden by the presence of Mark Mulder and Barry Zito in Oakland, and then he moved on to Atlanta where he toiled as a top shelf pitching option, though once again one who failed to generate as much attention as his production warranted. However, after a wonderful first half he was named to the 2010 NL All-Star team, a much deserved honor given his 2.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8-4 record through 17 starts. In the next couple of sections I’ll relate some of the historical success of Hudson before speaking directly to what I expect from him in the second half of the regular season.

A History Lesson

As a rookie Hudson went 11-2 with a 3.23 ERA for the A’s over 21 starts. He ended up fifth in the Rookie of the Year Voting.

In year two he won 20 games for the first and only time as he went 20-6 as he finished second in the AL Cy Young race despite the fact that he posted the second worst ERA of his career at 4.14.

In year III (2001), he made a career high 35 starts as he went 18-9 with a 3.37 ERA.

You get the picture. He’s been very good for a long time. In fact, here are some historical facts about Hudson that speak to just how good he has been.

* From 1999-2008 he won at least 11 games each season. Only he and Mike Mussina did that. Moreover, in each season of his career in which he has thrown 130-innings he has won at least 11 games.

* In his career he is 156-82, good for a .655 winning percentage. As a result, he is one of just 10 pitchers in big league history with a winning percentage over .650 and at least 150 victories in a career. Think about that. Only 10 men have ever done that.

* Hudson owns a 3.43 ERA in his career despite spending six of his 12 seasons in the AL. He owns a career 1.28 ERA+ meaning his ERA has been 28 percent better than league average (park and era adjusted). To place that number in context, that 128 mark is tied for 43rd all time with guys like Curt Schilling, Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver.

Yes, that means he has been historically good.

Breaking Down 2010

Hudson deserves to be on the All-Star team this season, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t concerns. Let’s just plow through them.

1- His ERA hasn’t been below 3.00 since 2003.

2- His WHIP hasn’t been 1.15 or lower since 2003.

3- His .221 batting average against would be a career low (.250 lifetime mark).

4- Despite all the success his 4.57 K/9 mark is a batter and a half below his career rate (6.04). It would also be a career worst mark.

5- His 3.23 BB/9 is above his career rate (2.79) and would be his second worst mark since 2000.

6- His line drive rate is laughably low at 10.6 percent. His career rate is 18.0 and it has been at least 16.5 percent each of the past eight years.

7- His BABIP mark is .234 which would be a career low (.286 lifetime mark).

8- His left on base percentage is sky high at 84.0 percent. It’s 74.0 percent for his career.

9- His GB/FB ratio is 3.15, a mark that would set a new career best.

Could Hudson have a second half to match the first? Stranger things certainly have happened. At the same time there is so much out of whack here that it would be wise not to lay a big portion of your paycheck on Hudson continuing to dominate as the season wears on. He should be fine and concerns about his Tommy John surgery obviously have vanished, but that doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be a good time to see if you can parlay his hot start into a big return on the trade market.

By Ray Flowers

The Resurgence of Zito

Castigated the world over as the worst free agent signing since Kevin Brown or Mike Hampton, the Giants’ Barry Zito will never be able to live up to his $126 million deal. However, that doesn’t mean you should throw Zito into the garbage bin like some mere bit of refuse. OK, I’m a Giants fan so I’m a bit biased, but in this case there clearly is support for the contention that Zito really hasn’t been as bad as you think he has been this season. In fact, since the All-Star break, is it possible that Zito has been the best Giants starter, better than Tim Lincecum or Matt Cain? Let’s take a look at the three hurlers performances since the break.

Lincecum: 2-2, 2.87 ERA, 1.02 WHIP in 57.2 IP
Cain: 2-2. 2.53 ERA, 0.96 WHIP in 53.1 IP
Zito: 3-2, 2.36 ERA, 1.10 WHIP in 42 IP

Granted there is a lot more to look at with a pitcher than the few numbers I tossed out there, but the point is clearly made; Zito has pitched as well as the Giants “aces” since the All-Star break, a fact that appears to have been lost on almost everyone in the game. I mean a 2.36 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP is some serious pitching folks, and though we are only talking about seven starts, Zito has been better in those seven appearances than Cain has been this season (2.43 ERA, 1.15 WHIP). Looking for some more data? How about this.

Over the past 30 days —

Zito has a 2.51 ERA, the 10th best mark in baseball and better than guys like Jon Lester (2.70), Johan Santana (3.19) and CC Sabathia (3.35).

Zito has a 3.43 K/BB ratio better than guys like Lincecum (3.29) and Zack Greinke (3.27).

Zito has a 1.12 WHIP better than Gavin Floyd (1.18), John Lackey (1.24) and Tommy Hanson (1.24) to name a few.

Obviously, Zito is trending in the right direction and doing so with resounding vigor.

Should you be surprised by this? Well yes, if you are one of the thousands who castigate the Giants and Zito on a daily basis because of the fact that he can burn dollar bills in the fireplace for the rest of his life and never run out of money. Still, history shows us that Mr. Zito is usually a much better pitcher in the second half after the All-Star break. Here are the career numbers.

Pre Break: 58-66, 4.23 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 1.65 K/BB
Post Break: 73-38, 3.42 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 1.91 K/BB

Moreover, Zito has posted the best number of his career in August with a 2.96 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 58 games and his career record in September is 24-12.

Does all of this mean that Zito is better than Cain or Lincecum? What you think, I dropped some acid this morning before writing this piece? The point is that Zito has been really, really good of late and that his career record supports the position that he may indeed be a valuable fantasy part the rest of the way. Give the guy a break, it’s not like you would turn down $126 million if someone offered it to you, so don’t wish the guy ill simply because he was smart enough to sign the outrageous deal. Look at the numbers – they say that Zito should be rostered in mixed leagues and counted on for the rest of 2009.

By Ray Flowers

The Sad Case of Dontrelle

The Tigers finally made the most obvious call since Hugh Hefner chose Marilyn Monroe as the first playmate in Playboy history in deciding to remove Dontrelle Willis from their starting rotation effective immediately. I love Dontrelle for his unbridled enthusiasm, his athletic game (have you seen him swing the stick?), and for the fact that he comes from my hood – the Bay Area – but enough is enough. Think of the most descriptive term you can for being awful, and that word could easily have a picture of Dontrelle Willis next to it in the dictionary (one of my favorites has always been “putrid”). Willis has not only allowed 37 hits and 28 runs in 33.2 innings leading to a 7.49 ERA, but he has walked 28 batters in that time leading to a 7.48 BB/9 mark. Moreover since joining the Tigers at the start of last season with a 3-year contract in tow for $29 million, more about that in a moment, Willis has been atrocious. Here are the numbers since the start of last season:

8.27 ERA, 2.05 WHIP, 5.46 K/9, 8.58 H/9 and, hide the women and children, a 9.83 BB/9 mark.

With numbers like that, you have to seriously, and I mean SERIOUSLY, question the brain trust that is currently in place with the club in Detroit. Why in the hell would they have given him so much rope when it was clear that all he was going to do was to strangle himself with it?

Let’s go back to late December of 2007 when the Tigers decided to offer Willis a contract extension two weeks after he was obtained in a trade with the Florida Marlins that also brought Miguel Cabrera to the club (the Tigers sent Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin and four other minors leaguers to the Marlins in the deal). Here is what GM Dave Dombrowski said at the time. “We’re absolutely thrilled to accomplish this and keep him a part of our organization for a lengthy period.” Did anyone bother to ask any baseball people if this was a good idea? If they did those that offered the advice to extend Dontrelle clearly should be removed from their current post and immediately replaced by me (I love Fanball, but if you guys need someone to help clean up your organization I’m not above being a mercenary for hire). Here is what is obvious.

Willis was wonderful in 2005 going 22-10 with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP.

However, that was the only season at the time of the contract extension that Willis had posted an ERA below 3.30 and it was the only time his WHIP was below 1.25 in his five seasons.

Second, at the time of the contract, Willis had more seasons with an ERA above 3.85 (three) than below it (two).

Third, Willis had in each of the previous four seasons (2004-07) posted a K/9 mark between 6.35 and 6.47. That is a stunning run of consistency, but at the same time that is far from a dominating number.

Fourth, after posting a 2.09 BB/9 mark in his fantastic ’05 campaign that number rose to 3.34 and 3.81 in the next two seasons.

Fifth, and the most obvious sign that trouble lay ahead, Willis was awful in 2007. Besides going 10-15, he posted a 5.17 ERA, a 1.60 WHIP and the worst K/BB mark of his career at 1.68. Throw in those wacky mechanics of his that included that huge leg kick, a funky twist of his torso, and the all arms and legs follow through, and he was hardly a pitching coach’s dream with a delivery that would obviously be difficult to repeat time after time.

Obviously no one, not even this writer, could have predicted the depths that Dontrelle would fall to, but the point is that there were warning signs all over the place that giving Willis nearly $10 million a year may not have been such a good idea. Just how bad has Willis been? His performance has been so hideous that the 7-year, $126 million deal that the Giants gave Barry Zito actually doesn’t look so bad in comparison at $18 million a year. At least Zito has stayed healthy while remaining passable for the team on the left coast, a far cry from the man who grew up across the bay from where Zito now hurls his home games.

By Ray Flowers

Wednesday Baseball

Today I’m going to look around the landscape of baseball and point out a few of the more interesting tidbits as the clock winds down on this Wednesday.

Eric Byrnes went 1-for-4 on Wednesday to “raise” his average to .152. He did steal two bags and appears to be running very well after a lost 2008 because of hamstring issues.

D’backs, please start scoring some runs for Dan Haren. In his four starts this year the club has scored a total of three runs. As a result, instead of being the early favorite for the NL Cy Young, Haren is 1-3 despite a 1.38 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP.

Brandon Phillips is hitting .143 on the young season thanks to an 0-for-21 slump. As a result he has been dropped to sixth in the order. Miscast as a cleanup hitter, Phillips would likely be better served hitting second or fifth, but the Reds really don’t have a better option at the moment than Phillips. Dating back to August first last year, Phillips is hitting a miniscule .183 over 191 ABs. That isn’t a slump, it’s a trend. Oddly his struggles this year have come despite the fact that he has more walks (nine) than strikeouts (seven). You can blame his inordinately low BABIP mark of .147. When things normalize, the average should return to at least the .260 level.

CC Sabathia had another rough outing on Wednesday as he allowed six earned runs in 6.2 innings against the Athletics who entered the game hitting an AL worst .237 with the second worst OBP in the league at .309 (only the Mariners were worse at .305). Just like last season when he started slowly, Sabathia has had a very difficult time throwing strikes as he has struck out just 12 batters while walking 14 leading to a K/BB mark of 0.86 through four starts. Considering he owns a career mark of 2.63 and has posted a mark of at least 3.91 in each of the past three seasons, one has to figure things will turn around quickly. Still, his slow start cannot be leading to too many smiles in the Yankees’ front office or with those people who took Sabathia as their fantasy ace in 2009.

Jose Valverde has struggled a bit to start the year, and now he is dealing with a bruised right ankle and a strained calf muscle that he suffered on Tuesday night. At this point there isn’t necessarily a substantial worry that he will end up on the DL, but that is the LaTroy Hawkins train warming up in the station to take over in case Valverde cannot go. Here is my advise – you had better think long and hard about adding Hawkins in anything other than an NL-only league. Sure LaTroy posted solid numbers last year with a 3.92 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP over 62 innings, including some great work with the Astros (0.43 ERA, 0,73 WHIP, 25 K in 21 IP), but come on now we are talking about LaTroy Hawkins here. Dude has 77 saves and 47 blown saves in his career, and he hasn’t been given even 10 saves chances since the 2005 season when we has six saves and nine blown chances. For whatever reason, and it makes no sense, the man simply cannot come through in the ninth inning. It’s as simple as that. Don’t fool yourself into thinking it will be any different, even if Valverde ends up on the disabled list.

Barry Zito was 3-0 with a 3.21 ERA last year when Pablo Sandoval was behind the plate. On Wednesday Sandoval caught his first games of the year, with Zito on the hill, and he went seven shutout innings though it was against the Padres. The Giants aren’t ready to say it, but we might be getting awfully close to Pablo serving as the personal catcher for Zito, and that would be music to Sandoval’s owner’s ears if he doesn’t qualify as a catcher in your league at the moment (this was his first game behind the dish this season).