Pitching: What Goes Up, Might Go Down

It’s all about pitching today. We’ll discuss the always injured Nationals’ ace, a 300 lbs, 57 year old starter on the west coast, a rebounding ace from Philly, and a dynamic rookie with the Cardinals.

STRASBURG FAILS TO LAUNCH

Stephen Strasburg is on the DL with a lat issue. He said he was fine. The team said he was fine. We all knew he wasn’t fine and that he would end up on the DL, right? Facts are facts, and there are a bunch of them in an article I wrote earlier this week titled The Strasburg Dilemma. Adding to what I wrote there I think it’s about time we admit the following.

(1) Strasburg cannot be trusted to make 30 starts. He’s never done that, or thrown 160 innings, in any season of his life.

(2) It’s unabashedly foolish to draft Strasburg in the top-25 overall as many did this season, and it’s similarly crazy to make him your SP1 in the fantasy game. I don’t care how talented he is, you cannot trust him to take the ball every five days. Even when he does the Nationals micromanage him so much that it diminishes his fantasy outlook substantially.

Can we move on now?

COLON OUT OF CONTROL

Bartolo Colon has been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this year. Colon is 7-2 with a 3.14 ERA and 1.09 WHIP for the Athletics. Some facts. (1) The last time Colon threw 165 innings was 2005. Were you even playing fantasy baseball then? (2) The last time Colon had an ERA under 3.40 was 2002. (3) The last time he had a WHIP under 1.20 was 2005. (4) Colon has a 5.35 K/9 mark. That’s a batter an a half below his career rate and would be the second worst mark of his career (he had a 4.95 mark in 2006 when he tossed only 56.1 innings). (5) He’s walked six batters in 12 starts. Six. Since the 1950 season there have only been two seasons with a pitcher posting a BB/9 mark under 0.70 (Carlos Silva 0.43 in 2005 and Bret Saberhagen 0.66 in 1994). Colon’s current mark is also fifty percent of the lowest mark he’s ever posted. Good luck with that continuing.

How are people evaluating pitchers over at Fleaflicker.com?

HAMELS REBOUNDING?

Cole Hamels allowed one run, walked one and struck out 11 in a victory over the Marlins Wednesday. He’s 2-9 with a 4.56 ERA, and that has people freaking out. I don’t think you should be. Here’s why. (1) Hamels has a 8.56 K/9 mark. That’s one hundredth over his career mark. (2) His control has returned. Hamels has walked two batters over his last three starts and four in five outings. That run of success has dropped his walk rate back down below three at 2.89. That mark would still be a seven year high, but it’s finally under control. (3) His 1.18 GB/FB ratio is two hundredths better than his career mark. Right on par. (4) His HR/F ratio is 13.1. That would be a career worst but it’s an acceptable number given his career rate of 11.6 percent. (5) His BABIP is .294, right in line with his career .282 mark. The results haven’t been there according to his ERA and record, but you had better be buying on him quick before his owner realizes the old Hamels is back (ditto Matt Cain who you should all be buying).

READER COMMENT

Dresselrebel – Shelby Miller actually has been thoroughly studly all season. All of his numbers and ratios support this. 10 starts. All were quality. Sub 2.00 ERA. Sub 1.00 WHIP. A K per IP. Should be universally owned and started. That is all.

Of course Miller should be owned and started in all leagues. I never said otherwise. Still, let’s be clear here. Saying Miller should be starting in every league every time he takes the hill is totally different than saying he will be able to keep up this pace and should be looked at as an SP1 in fantasy baseball.

Rookie pitchers since 1950 who have thrown at least 160 innings…

No rookie has had a season with an ERA below 2.05 (Stan Bahnsen in 1968). Miller is at 1.82.

Only one rookie has had a WHIP below 1.00 (Dick Hughes 0.95 in 1967). Miller is at 0.98.

Only eight rookies have bettered Miller’s 9.35 K/9 mark.

NO rookie has bettered his 4.24 K/BB ratio.

NO rookie has ever bettered his 84.1 left on base percentage.

So are you ready to say that Miller is a lock to have one of the three greatest rookie pitching seasons in over 60 years? I think it’s foolish to make that claim after 11 starts.

By Ray Flowers

The Oracle Joins the Fantasy Beat

The man, myth and legend Ray Flowers joins Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray on “The Fantasy Beat” to give his take on the young 2013 fantasy baseball season. The guys talked about hitters and pitchers who have garnered a lot of attention over the last few weeks.

Brandon Crawford, Josh Rutledge, Michael Cuddyer, Paul Maholm, Ross Detwiler, Bartolo Colon, John Buck, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Ruggiano

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Is It Time to Panic?

I get questions all day from folks. Many of them come from people who are panicked about the struggling the players they own, while some come from folks who overestimate the value of the players on their roster leading them to think they’ve got the championship in the bags. In the following piece I’ll give my thoughts on a series of players and let you know whether you should be buying or selling in the fantasy baseball game.

I’M NOT WORRIED – BUY

Matt Cain – People have lost their minds. Giving up on Cain. Why? It’s AMAZING to me how much people panic with a guy like Cain who has been so rock solid impressive the past four years. It’s like nothing I ever say gets through to some people. Sure his ERA is 6.59, but I could care less. His 8.16 K/9 mark would be a seven year best. His 1.88 BB/9 would be a career best. Pretty sure his HR/9 isn’t going to stay at 1.88 as his career mark is a mere 0.78. And then there is this. His current 3.82 xFIP mark is exactly the same as it was last year, and 0.04 above his 2011 mark. His ERA’s in those two years were 2.88 and 2.79.

Ike Davis – He’s hitting .164 with three homers and six RBIs. Last April he hit .185 with three homers and eight RBIs. He ended 2012 with 32 homers and 90 RBIs. I’m not saying he’s a lock to get there against this season, but I’m just pointing out that he started out extremely slowly last year and by the end of the year he was a productive power force.

J.J. Putz – The majors leader in blown saves with three. The issue, as it often is, revolves around location. He’s walking five guys per nine innings right now. That will come down. The last two years he hasn’t even walked 1.90 batters per nine. The other issue is homers. He gave up four taters in 2010, four in 2011 and four in 2012. He’s already allowed two in nine innings this season. For 7-straight years his HR/9 mark has been under 0.80 (it’s been under 0.68 the last four seasons). Pretty sure that number isn’t going to stay at hia current 2.00 level. Putz also has 12 Ks in nine innings.

Giancarlo Stanton – He’s hitting .200 with zero homers. Last season in April he hit .247 with one homer. He ended the year with 37 big flies in a mere 123 games. I told you all, repeatedly, that he was not a .300 hitter. I also told you I was worried about his team situation and mental health. Can’t say I didn’t warn you as I was emphatic about saying I wasn’t going to take Stanton in the top-20 this season. At the same time, you’re nuts if you’re selling this talent for .80 cents on the dollar. You should be trying to add this power monster, not deal him away.

I’M WORRIED – SELL

Tony Cingrani – Through two starts he has a 2.25 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and 17 Ks in 12 innings. Wow is right. Still, he’s no lock to even be in the rotation in three weeks as Johnny Cueto rounds into shape. Plus, Tony’s still throwing his fastball 81 percent of the time through two starts. That’s a huge number. Once teams start to pick up on his motion and the movement on his fastball the results will change, and I’m pretty sure he’s not going to be able to hold onto his 64 percent ground ball rate either.

Bartolo Colon – He’s 3-0 with a 2.42 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He’s walked one batter in 26 innings. Come on now, has he turned into Greg Maddux? Colon is striking out less than six per nine and the last time he threw 165 innings in a season was 2005.

Chris Davis – Finally fell under .400 at .382. Here are the facts. (1) He has one homer in his last 11 games. (2) He has three RBIs in his last 11 games. (3) His walk rate is double the last two years. It’s highly unlikely he sustains that growth. (4) His K-rate is 33 percent of what it has been the five years. Pretty tough to think he maintains at that level. (5) His .413 BABIP is light years ahead of his career .339 mark. Career bests in homers, RBIs and average are certainly possible given his hot start, but there is nowhere to go but down.

Ross Detwiler – Wow has he been good. Through four starts he owns a 1.38 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s also sporting a horrific 4.50 K/9 mark. If he throws 180 innings this seasons that’s 90 Ks folks. Ninety. From a starting pitcher. He’s also lopped off a batter from his BB/9 mark from the last two years, and he’s not going to hold onto all of that. His HR/9 mark has dipped more than 50 percent from his career rate (down to 0.35). He’s not holding on to that either. Oh, and his 88.2 left on base percentage is unsustainable. Heed the warning of his xFIP (4.20). See his Player Profile.

Paul Maholm – Someone sent me a note on Twitter that they were happy to be able to deal Stanton to get Maholm. I’m serious. From his Player Profile. “Maholm will never be elite. He’ll never be someone to build a staff around… he’s not someone to reach for on draft day, ever. Still, if you’ve got five or six solid arms in the rotation in a mixed league, and it’s the 25th round, you could do worse than calling out Maholm’s name on draft day.” Seems like most aren’t heeding my advice here either. The two biggest things that stand out: (1) His .212 BABIP is nearly .100 points below his career .304 mark. Since 2006 that number has been between .281 and .327 every year. (2) His 8.54 K/9 rate is THREE batters above his career mark which is an unsustainable pace. He’s only had one season with the mark over six the past four years.

Jose Valverde – He’ll be called up and given a chance to close for the Tigers. Here are three of my Tweets about him from last night.

Have none of you seen Valverde pitch lately? ’12 = career WORST K/9 (6.26) & K/BB (1.78) hint at scary times ahead.

Valverde ’12 = LUCKY 3.3 HR/F ratio 1/3 of career. 0.77 GB/FB 2nd worst of 9 yrs. XFIP 5.01.

Jose Valverde K/9 last SEVEN years: 12.59, 10.91, 10.38, 9.33, 9.00, 8.59, 6.26.

To see how others are evaluating players don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – PEDs

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss some key trades this season and the effect PEDs in fantasy: Melky Cabrera, Bartolo Colon.

Also, baseball only talk about players that have switched teams this year – Hanley Ramirez, James Loney, Also Chase Headley, Juan Pierre

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun (and don’t think I’m not going to this weekend given that I will be in The Vegas. That’s right, The Oracle in Vegas… only good things can happen given that setup, right?). Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

CONTEST

At BaseballGuys.com we have partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday July 27th starting at 7pm EST which is FREE. That’s right it costs nothing, to enter. Here are the details:

- Create your team with a $1 million dollar salary cap: C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

Follow these 2 steps to play now:

1. CLICK HERE to register at DailyJoust and make your selections for the contest

2.  Watch the live scoring on DailyJoust to see how your team stacks up against the competition.

Remember, it’s FREE to enter and there are $250 in prizes up for grabs. Oh, I almost forgot to mention you can get a 40% deposit bonus up to $400,refer a friend and both get $20.

**Must have less than 1 MLB win on DailyJoust to compete in contest.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Andre Ethier vs. Matt Cain: Hey, it may not make one iota of sense, but Ethier absolutely obliterates pitches from Cain. In 51 career matchups Ethier has produced 22 hits and four walks. The result is a .468 batting average and .491 OBP against the Giants’ ace. James Loney is also 14-for-41 against Cain (.341).

Martin Prado vs. Cole Hamels: Brian McCann has 12 RBIs in 51 at-bats again Hamels but the real star of this show is Prado who has produced 15 hits in 45 career ABs (.333) against the newly minted gazillionare of the Phillies.

B.J. Upton vs. Dan Haren: Eleven Ks in 26 at-bats for Upon in this matchup. So why on Earth am I mentioning Upton as a solid play? In the other 15 at-bats Upton has ripped nine hits including four homers. Add it all up and B.J. has hit .346 with four homers an a 1.192 OPS against Haren.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Lance Lynn vs. Cubs: Lynn has allowed the Cubs to hit .222 with a .617 OPS against him in his young career as he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.84 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over 21.1 innings pitched. Given that he’s allowed just one earned runs in his last three starts overall, this would seem like a pretty fair matchup.

Josh Tomlin vs. Twins: Looking for a sneaky play for Friday? Though current Twins batters have hit a healthy .288 off Tomlin in 73 at-bats, they’ve also managed a mere .297 OBP and .653 OBP as they’ve only taken him deep once.

Carlos Villanueva vs. Tigers: Over his last 10 outings (only four starts), Carlos has 38 Ks and just 15 walks in 34.2 innings leading to a 1.82 ERA and 1.15 WHIP. He’s also had success against the Tigers in his career with a 2.60 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and 5.00 K/BB ratio over 17 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Carl Crawford vs. CC Sabathia: These two have faced off 69 times with Crawford emerging with 22 hits leading to a .319 average. After a tremendous start in his return to action Crawford has slowed though producing only one hit in 18 at-bats before game action Friday.

Buster Posey vs. Chad Billingsley: The Dodgers’ righty was impressive in his first game back from the DL (1 ER in 6 IP vs. STL), but this is one matchup he has a ton of trouble with. Posey has 11 hits in 23 at-bats leading to a .478 average (Nate Schierholtz has hit .450 in 20 ABs against Chad). Posey, in case you’ve missed it, is hitting .465 over his last 11 games for the Giants as well.

Matt Kemp vs. Barry Zito: Just seeing this matchup has to make you think that Kemp is going to go off. When you look at the numbers you should be comforted by the fact that your initial thought is exactly right. In 49 career at bats Kemp has ripped off 22 hits (.449) and he’s also taken Zito deep twice with eight walks leading to a .526 OBP.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Bruce Chen vs. Mariners: This one is a shot in the dark since he’s pitched so poorly of late including a four runs, two homer effort against the Mariners back in July 18th. Chen has a .200/.209/.323 line in the 65 at-bats against the current Mariners. He’s also always had success against the club from the Pacific Northwest with a 4-0 record, 3.10 ERA and1.16 WHIP in 12 career matchups.

Bartolo Colon vs. Orioles: Current Orioles hitters are batting .243 with two homers and five RBIs in 144 career at-bats off Colon. The hefty righty of the A’s has allowed eight runs in his last two starts, but for the month of July he’s still sporting a 3.18 ERA and 1.09 WHIP so he’s been very steady overall.

CC Sabathia vs. Red Sox: In 315 career at-bats the Red Sox batters have hit .248 against Sabathia. You’ll remember I mentioned Crawford killing it against CC above. Remove Crawford’s work against Sabathia and the rest of the Sox have hit .228 against the massive lefty.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 3: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Bartolo Colon (+43 to $236,000 in Daily Joust salary): The A’s hurler has been fantabulistic this season striking out 19 batters while walking only two batters over 27.1 innings leading to a 2.63 ERA and 0.80 WHIP. This is as good as it gets. You can start him for the moment, he’s rolling right along after throwing 38-straight strikes in his last outing, but there is no chance he’ll keep this up so know that the good times will strop rolling – soon.

Jamie Moyer (+39, $179K): How he does it no one knows, but through three starts Moyer has a 2.55 ERA an a 1.30 WHIP. On the down side he has only six strikeouts through three starts, and check out the “offenses” that he has had success against: Astros, Giants, Padres. The only thing those three offenses have in common is that they are offensive on offense. Moyer has gotten batters out, and he’ll likely continue to do that at a respectable clip, but he’s not someone to count on.

Bruce Chen (+30, $220K): A younger version of Moyer? Not quite, but not too far off either. Chen is 0-1 through three starts but he has a 2.00 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. That along would be exciting. Add in 14 Ks and just two walks, and the excitement meter moves higher. Over his last 15 starts he is 7-5 with a 3.02 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Pretty impressive stuff.

Jake Peavy (+20, $272K): Last year he had a 3.96 K/BB ratio, a bit under the radar given his 4.92 ERA. This season he’s racked up 21 Ks in just 19.2 innings, while walking only two batters leading to an otherwordly 10.50 K/BB ratio. He’s obviously not keeping this up, but it’s great to see that this once proud hurler is back to being an effective big league pitcher once again. A nice depth option.

A.J. Pierzynski (+12, $107K): Hitting .348 on the young season, A.J. has a .324 career OBP in over ,5,300 at-bats. A.J. is always a solid option at the plate, he’s hit at least .270 in five of the past six years, and he’s always around 10 homers and 55 RBI as a serviceable catcher two in mixed leagues. Make sure you don’t use his hot start to blind you to the facts (people aren’t ever at Fleaflicker where A.J. hasn’t exactly been a hot add to fantasy squads).

Jason Heyward (+11, $105K): Back to bashing, this former “superstar in training” is once again performing like a superstar in training. The five steals aren’t likely to be a pace he will be able to sustain, but it’s heartening to see that he’s cut his ground ball rate from 54 percent, his total his first two seasons, down to 40 percent this year. If he holds on to that gain he should have little problem surpassing his totals of 18 homers and 72 RBI from his rookie season.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Jon Lester (-20, down to $265K): Lester’s numbers look bad with that 5.82 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. Still, before his last outing when he was bombed by the Rangers, that ERA stood at 2.40. It’s a sample size situation people. A big concern though is nine walks and just 12 Ks in 17 innings. Given how stable he has been the past few years it would be wise to remain patient, but it’s been a rough start.

Matt Garza (-10, +281K): There are no certainties in life. Still, I’m pretty damn certain that Garza will be what he always is at the end of the season, and that is one of the better non-elite arms in the game. Sure he was shelled in his last outing allowed two homers and six runs to the Marlins, but he still has a 3.66 ERA and 1.07 WHIP for the year. Everyone would take that in a heartbeat if those were his season long numbers.

Brandon Morrow (-10, $245K): Concern is growing about his total of nine punchouts in 20 innings, so this is a big week for the righty who has starts against the Mariners and Royals. Lost amid concerns over his disappearing K-rate has been his 1.10 WHIP and the fact that he’s further dropped his walk rate down to 3.15 per nine (the number the last three years has been 5.68, 4.06 and 3.46).

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk.2: What Did We Learn?

 Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

INEXPENSIVE OFFENSIVE HEROES

Mike Aviles, 2B/3B/SS ($75,000 Daily Joust salary): The Red Sox shortstop can hit. He owns a career .288 batting average and is currently batting .290 through 31 at-bats. He’s also popped two long balls, though his power upside is likely sneaking into the double digits in dingers. He also posses speed, he’s stolen 14 bags each of the last two seasons. Given his positional flexibility he’s a nice add to any lineup. His value is likely still heading up though as he appears likely to spend an awful lot of time in the leadoff spot for the Red Sox with the shoulder injury to Jacoby Ellsbury that will keep him out of action for an estimated six weeks.

Yunieksy Betancourt, SS ($68K): He’s actually played second base in five of his six games this year, he’s only played nine games at any position other than shortstop prior to this season, but it certainly hasn’t affected hit ability with the twig in his hands. Yunieksy is batting a robust .389 through 18 at-bats, but let’s not get too carried away here. He hasn’t walked a single time in six games, hasn’t stolen a base, and has scored only three times in six contests. Still, I’m not going to ignore his hot start at the plate, but I’m just trying to be realistic here with a guy who has hit .269 with a .293 OBP for his career.

Matt Carpenter, 1B ($66K): A hot pick up, Carpenter has had himself a whopper of a start to the season. Through eight games he has hit .409. That alone would be exciting. When you add in the 10 RBIs that he’s also produced it’s time to get a bit giddy. Carpenter hit .302 last year in 130 games at Triple-A, but he also hit only 12 homers not showing much pop, something you need from a corner infield option. Lance Berkman is also close to a return to the lineup, and don’t forget that Allen Craig (knee) is likely to be back in a couple of weeks making at-bats possibly hard to come by for Carpenter. There’s nothing wrong with rolling with him in the short-term though (over at Fleaflicker Carpenter has recoded the same average fantasy point total as Paul Konerko and Troy Tulowitzki).

Shelly Duncan, OF ($66K): The Indians lineup is about to get a bit crowded with the addition of Johnny Damon, and the question remains will that eat into the playing time of Duncan. If PT is determined by performance in Cleveland than Duncan shouldn’t be worried about losing any of it, at least not right now. Through eight games he has flashed his trademark power with two homers, a double and six RBI. He’s also walked an impressive eight times helping him to Bondsian .485 OBP. Given that he’s also hitting .320 right now you’d be wise to consider him for your starting lineup since he’s also working on a 5-game hitting streak.

Mark Ellis ($72K): Why am I bothering with a guy who is batting .235 with no homers and just two RBIs? Did you notice that his OBP is .366? Or how about the most interesting number in his line – 10 runs scored in nine games. Matt Kemp and Andre Either have to slow down as the season progresses, but if Ellis maintains a spot in the daily lineup, and is hitting out of the two hole, he’ll end up being a pretty valuable source of runs, and that average will certainly climb as well.

LOSER OF THE WEEK

Kendrys Morales ($110K): From April 9th through April 15th Morales had, wait for it, one hit in 18 at-bats. Given that he was also 0-for-5 on April 8th that means he has one hit in 23 at-bats. I know it’s early, and I always talk about sample size being so important, so I’m not going to hammer Morales – yet. I will say this, which is the same thing I was saying three weeks ago when people were going bonkers to add Morales after he had a hot stretch to end Spring Training, the guy is coming back from an injury after missing more than a season and a half. As great as he looked to end spring he has looked equally putrid once games started counting (.200-0-0 through 30 at-bats). The game just isn’t that easy folks.

PITCHERS WHO ARE PERFORMING

Bartolo Colon ($173K): He’s 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and an extremely impressive 7.00 K/BB ratio. I’m still not buying it. In a quirk of the schedule, thanks to MLB’s desire to play in Japan, Colon has pitched against the Mariners in all three of his games. I think, on a good day, that I could get many of the Mariners batters out. Be careful not to overemphasize his early season success.

Kyle Drabek ($195K): The former 1st round draft pick has killed it in two starts as he’s learned to just relax when guys get on base versus over thinking and trying to over analyze everything. He’s 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, but do two starts wipe out a miserable 2011 effort that say him post a 6.06 ERA, 1.81 WHIP an a 0.93 K/BB ratio (yes, he walked more batters than he struck out last season)? I need more than two starts for me to feel like he’s totally over the hump.

Barry Zito ($215 K): Currently the 77th most expensive SP in the DailyJoust game, Zito has pitched his brains out – so far (1-0, 1.13 ERA in 16 IP). Be honest with your assessment here though. The last time he posted an ERA under 4.00 was 2006. The last time he had a winning record was 2006. He’s also struck out only eight batters in 16 innings and his current walk rate of 0.56 per nine, well I somehow don’t think he’s going to keep that up since he’s never posted a season long mark below 3.06, and that was way back in 2002.

DAILY CONTEST

MLB – Tournament – Mon, Apr 16th – King Arthur’s $50BB Hi Cap Daily Free For All over at DailyJoust.com.

Single entry. No entry fee. $50 prize pool payable in Bonus Bucks. Bonus Bucks can be used as entry fee for an cash entry contests on Daily Joust. Top 15 places paid. Winner also gets a King Arthur badge.

Prize: Top

•1 – $10.00
•2 – $5.00
•23 – $5.00

etc. (it pays out down to 15th place).

Also, if you deposit $25 in your account you can get a 40% deposit bonus, and who doesn’t like free money?

By Ray Flowers

One Day Left

With one day left in the season, and so much left to be decided with the Rays/Sox and Braves/Cards tied for the Wild Card, you gotta love it. I hope the Rays and Cards make it. Just my personal preference.

Adam Dunn is having one of the worst seasons in the history of baseball. He was threatening to become just the second player ever, Rob Deer is the lucky winner, to have a batting average that is less than the players strikeout total. Oh Dunn has that trick pulled off with 177 punchouts and a .159 average, but it won’t officially be recognized because he is a handful of plate appearances below the number needed (502) to qualify for the batting title. In addition to that dreadful bit of news, Dunn has also lost one of the most impressive homer streaks in league history. From 2004-10, Dunn hit at least 38 homers in every season. This year he’s scored 36 runs. I don’t know what to say other than this is, like I wrote at the top, one of the worst performances in the history of baseball.

Matt Garza is one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. He only went 10-10 in his first year in the NL, but he did strike out a career best 197 batters in 198 innings. Garza has made at least 30 starts and thrown at least 184.2 innings each of the past four years. Even more than that, look at his BAA marks – .245, .233, .248 and .245. How about his WHIP you say? I thought you would never ask – 1.24, 1.26, 1.25 and 1.26. I’m not making that up. Check it out.

Micah Owing is 8-0 as a reliever for the D’backs (he did make four starts). Bartolo Colon made 26 starts for the Yankees and recorded only eight wins.

Brandon Phillips is one hell of a ballplayer. He’ll end the 2011 season, he has a strained left quad, hitting .300 with 18 homers, 82 RBI, 94 runs scored and 14 steals. Since he joined the Reds in 2006 he’s tied for 4th at the position with 124 homers, he is 4th with 486 RBI, he’s 5th with 524 runs scored and 3rd with 135 steals. Like I said, he’s a hell of a ballplayer.

Jimmy Rollins would like to sign a 5-year contract this offseason to take him through his 38 year old season. I don’t know if anyone will give him that long a deal, but he proved he still has a lot left to give after an injury plagued 2010 season (Rollins has 16 homers, 63 RBI, 87 runs and 30 steals in 141 games for the Phillies). He’s also hit .271, a three year high. Moreover, for the 7th straight time in which he’s appeared in 135 games he stole 30 bags with 10 homers, 50 RBI and 75 runs. Those aren’t fantastic numbers, but for a shortstop they are strong.

Alfonso Soriano was nowhere near as bad as Adam Dunn, but it’s not like he hasn’t had some issues of his own in 2011. Soriano has hit 26 homers with 88 RBI, solid totals for the Cubs’ outfielder. Here is where it gets interesting. Soriano is hitting a terrible .244, and given that he has walked a mere 27 times, his OBP this season is a sickly .289. As a result of not getting on base very often, and the fact that 81 percent of his at-bats have come out of the 6th and 7th spots in the lineup, Soriano has scored only 50 runs. I’ll save you a trip to the calculator. That means Soriano has scored 52 percent of his runs on his own home runs.

By Ray Flowers

The Wednesday Blahs

Wednesday is kind of a blah day. What happened last weekend is nothing but a memory now, and the plans for the coming weekend are still coming into focus. Of course in the world of baseball there is never a break until the season is completed, so I certainly have a lot of things to keep me occupied until I get the chance to get my groove on this weekend.

What’s the deal with Ronnie Belliard? He has hit .319 since joining the Dodgers (47 ABs), and he has hit .321 over his last 50 appearances. That’s pretty phenomenal production for a guy who hit just .184 over his first 51 games.

Eric Byrnes said that he will be playing winter ball in the Dominican Republic this offseason. “I miss playing baseball,” he said. “The past two years, getting 200 (at-bats), that’s not cutting it. If I can make up for some lost at-bats and get down there and play in a real competitive league, it will be beneficial.” Nicknamed “Captain America” by the faithful in the Dominican, this will be the fifth season he has played there. I wish him all the luck in the world because baseball is a better game when Byrnes and his child-like enthusiasm are flying all over the field.

Don’t worry Fausto Carmona owners, the Indians will leave him in the rotation for the rest of the season (Carmona is 3-11 with a 6.58 ERA, a 1.81 WHIP and a 5.57 BBB.9 mark). And to think, there was actually a chance that the Indians could have gone with a pitcher who could have actually given them a chance to win the game. At least they are loyal.

Bartolo Colon was released by the White Sox on Wednesday, and this could signal the end of the road for the one-time ace. Colon averaged 17 victories a year from 1998-2005, but since 2006 he has only been able to stay healthy long enough to make 48 appearances on his way to earning 14 victories. All told, Colon has won 153 games with a 4.10 ERA in a solid major league career, though we are all left to wonder just how well he could have done if he just dropped some weight and took better care of that body of his.

How good has this Josh Johnson kid been? On Wednesday he held the Cardinals to just one run over six innings to improve his record to 15-4 while dropping his ERA to a terrific 3.01. This was the sixth straight outing in which he didn’t go seven innings, but given that only once in that time he has allowed more than three earned runs, he has still given the Marlins a chance to win every time he has taken the hill. He is now 5.2 innings from his first 200-inning season as well.

Hiroki Kuroda continues to pitch well, something the Dodgers desperately need from a starting rotation that includes an injured Clayton Kershaw (out another week after hurting his non-pitching shoulder running into a wall during batting practice) and a struggling Chad Billingsley (an ERA of six in his last four appearances which has led to the team skipping his next turn in the rotation). Kuroda held the Pirates to but one run over six innings on Wednesday, the tenth straight start in which he has allowed three or fewer earned runs. Moreover, over his last three starts, he has an ERA of 2.84.

The Red Sox-Angels game just got underway. Glancing at the starting lineup every single one of the top-8 batters in the Angels’ lineup were hitting at least .287 and Juan Rivera was the only batter below .297 in that group. Do you think the players on the club make fun of Mike Napoli and his .269 average?

The Giants face the Rockies tonight with Matt Cain on the hill, and with a victory the Giants would move to within 1.5 games of the Rocks. Let’s hope it happens so that we can have a wild finish for the NL Wild Card.

Who is your AL home run leader since June 5th? I could give you 45 guesses and I bet you still wouldn’t come up with the right answer so I’m just going to tell you – it’s David Ortiz who has hit 23 homers in that time to lead the Junior Circuit. His last home run, on Tuesday night against the Angels, was his 270th as a DH, the all-time record (passing Frank Thomas).

By Ray Flowers

Windy City Baseball

I ended up discussing a bunch of White Sox player’s in today’s piece (and even a Cubs’ one). Don’t worry if you aren’t a fan of Chicago baseball though as I also made sure to touch on some non-Windy City events as well.

Jose Contreras was sent to the minors after looking pitiful in six starts this season during which time he went 0-5 with a 8.19 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP. He also struck out no one (5.16 K/9) while walking everyone (4.85 BB/9). The only shock here is that he wasn’t removed from the rotation sooner. If you bought in to his hot spring, well, you should have listened to your truly who told you this would happen. By the way, the other washed up returning starting pitcher for club, Bartolo Colon, has been serviceable for those of you in AL-only leagues going 2-3 with a 4.88 ERA and a 1.44 WHIP. Of course, his K/BB is awful 1.92, and his average fastball is just 89 mph (92.5 for his career). I would be worried about the bottom falling out there as well.

Bobby Jenks sent a message to the Rangers’ Ian Kinsler on Sunday when he fired a fastball behind Kinsler. “You don’t want to see anyone getting hurt. My intentions were not to hurt the guy, like I said before, but I was protecting my guys as well.” The White Sox apparently are tired of their hitters being hit as they have been plunked 16 times this season, the fifth highest total in the majors (they have been hit by a pitch 331 times since the start of 2004 while their pitchers have only hit 270 batters). I love Jenks for standing up for his guys, but really, what does it serve to say what he did to the press? The only thing he will likely be serving is a suspension being that he admitted to throwing at Kinsler. That brings up another point – since when did throwing at a guy deserve a suspension? If that was the case back when the game was played by men, how many times would Bob Gibson have been suspended? He may never have pitched a single complete game (he amazingly threw 255 in 528 starts) if today’s rules were in effect when his menacing presence was terrorizing hitters in the 1960′s and 70′s.

Watch out for the Angels who are just half a game behind the Rangers in the AL West. The club sits about in the middle of the back in the pitching categories, but they are about to get all kinds of healthy with John Lackey and Ervin Santana likely to join the club by the end of the week. Playing .533 ball without your two best starters is certainly something. If you add into that mix two of the top-20 starting pitchers in the American League, well, you’ll have to feel pretty good about things if you cheer along with the Rally Monkey and the Angels.

Derrek Lee’s neck injury isn’t career threatening. That was the report out of the Chicago Tribune. Look, any injury to someone’s neck is extremely serious, but was the club really so concerned about Lee and his bulging disc that they thought he might have to hang up his spikes? If so, they sure did a good job of making it sound like he was merely missing a few days to rest things. He should avoid the DL and be back by mid-week according to the latest reports.

Lastings Milledge suffered a broken finger at Triple-A, an injury that will obviously remove the possibility of returning to the bigs in May, not that he deserved to be considered for a promotion anyway. Milledge is hitting only .253 in 79 at-bats as he had failed to go deep once while knocking in only four runners. Lastings did steal six bags but with an OPS of .594 it was clear that he clearly hadn’t taken the demotion as a chance to prove everyone in Washington wrong. Now it looks like a return before the end of June seems unlikely.

J.R. Towles has been sent back to the minors as the Astros are ready to activate Humberto Quintero. Towles hit only .182 with the club this year, but he was only given 11 at-bats behind Ivan Rodriguez. At some point, don’t the ‘Stros need to move this guy? Towles was hitting .344 in Triple-A this year, is just 25 years old, and owns a .302 average and .866 OPS in more than 1,100 minor-league ABs. Certainly someone can find a backup job for a bat like that behind the dish can’t they?

By Ray Flowers