Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

The weekend is quickly approaching, so get ready to get your swerve on. For those of you looking to remain at least a little bit serious with your hobby (fantasy baseball not drinking) I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday while also suggesting you head over to DailyJoust.com to check out their unique brand of daily fantasy baseball games (including a way to win two tickets to the Major League All-Star Game).

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Jay Bruce vs. Nick Blackburn: Bruce has been ice cold for a while hitting .227 over his last 45 games. Still, he has 12 walks in 18 games in June and his SLG for the month is .500. Bruce has gone deep 12 times in 174 at-bats against righties this year and he gets to face Nick Blackburn who has been torched by lefty batters this year to the tune of a .393 BAA and .924 OPS against this season.

Andre Ethier vs. Dan Haren: The Angels’ righty has struggled a bit with health and performance which only adds to the aura for Ethier in this matchup. In 44 career at-bats Ethier has five doubles, two homers, seven RBI and a .386 batting average against Haren. James Loney also hammers Haren (.359 in 39 at-bats).

David Wright vs. Andy Pettitte: Wright is third in baseball with a .358 batting average. He’s hitting .343 in June. He’s hitting .343 against lefties this season. Facing Pettitte 24 previous times Wright has managed to produce two homers an a .458 batting average. Lock and load.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

A.J. Burnett vs. Tigers: The last eight times that Burnett has taken the hill this year he has allowed two or fewer runs seven times (he allowed three runs in the other outing). He’s also picked up a win in each of his last six outings. He does face a Tigers club that is potent, but I’m going to focus on his recent success this season and the 5-2 career record he has against the Tigers over the 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP he has against the Motown club over nine career starts.

Jason Hammel vs. Nationals: Hammel has killed it at home this year with a 2.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over five starts spanning 32 innings. He’s also had success in his career against the Nats going 4-0 with a 3.99 ERA and 1.23 WHIP over six starts.

Clayton Richard vs. Mariners: (1) He’s facing the Mariners. (2) Richard is Matt Cain when pitching at home. Think I’m nuts? Here are the numbers that prove it.

Matt Cain 2012: 12Wins, 2.88 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 179 K in 222.2 IP

Clayton Richard career at Petco: 13Wins , 2.72 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 180 K in 228.1 IP

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Russell Martin vs. Chris Young: Martin has eight hits in 25 at-bats against Young leading to a .320 batting average. Martin has also had a solid June with four homers and nine RBIs for the Yankees.

Alexei Ramirez vs. Randy Wolf: The lefty from Milwaukee has bombed on the road this year with a 6.75 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over six starts. Ramirez has finally started to pick things up of late as well as he’s hitting .359 the past two weeks, and for his career he has hit .300 in 617 at-bats against lefties.

Ben Zobrist vs. Kyle Kendrick: Over the past two weeks Zobrist is hitting a robust .400 (he’s also scored 10 runs in 10 games). Kendrick, on the other hand, has struggled like he’s looking to be demoted as he’s allowed at least five runs in each of this last three starts as his ERA has gone from 4.02 to .529.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Johnny Cueto vs. Twins: The Twins can’t hit, and that situation isn’t helped by the fact that Joe Mauer can’t get his wheel healthy enough to play. Cueto has never faced the Twins but he’s sporting a 2.68 ERA and 1.09 WHIP in six home starts this season, and over his last four outings overall he’s permitted only seven runs while not allowing a single long ball.

Ian Kennedy vs.  Cubs: Though he owns a 5.91 ERA over three starts against the Cubs, how about we focus on the positive –  he’s lasted 21.1 innings in those three starts during which time he has struck out 18 and walked only two leading to a 1.08 WHIP. Kennedy has also allowed two or fewer runs in three of his last four starts this year. The key will be keeping the ball in the yard as he’s allowed nine homers over his last eight outings.

Adam Wainwright vs. Royals: Wainwright is back on his game, well pretty much. Though he allowed seven runs on June 1st the other six times he has taken the hill since May 20th have resulted in eight earned runs allowed. In the process Adam W. has lowered his ERA from 5.77 to 4.46. He’s also had success in his career against the Royals with a 3.31 ERA and 1.01 WHIP over 32.2 innings.

CONTESTS

Over at DailyJoust folks, lots of hot things popping (didn’t I sound super street there?).

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Daily Joust – Wk 8: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Felix Doubront (+38, $288K in DailyJoust Salary)
He has won three of his last four starts, and over his last three outings he’s allowed only five runners to cross home plate (four earned). He continues to pile up the strikeouts, 16 in his last 11.2 innings and 53 in 50 innings on the year, showing his high upside arm. He’s still walked a few too many though with a 4.14 per nine mark, and he’s actually given up a ton of hard hit balls as well (25 percent line drive rate). It’s a big arm that Dubront owns, but I can forsee some inconsistency in his future.

Kevin Millwood (+123, $361K)
Where has this come from? I have no idea either. Over his last three starts Millwood has three victories, has allowed only five hits and a mere run while striking out 15 in 22 innings. Millwood hasn’t pitched like this since, jeez, probably back in 2005. He’s not going to keep this up, his 3.72 ERA and 1.29 WHIP marks are unlikely to hold, but he is locked in right now and may make a nice matchup play, especially when pitching at home.

Jonathon Niese (+44, $219K)
Niese has an over four ERA, and that 1.31 WHIP is solid but not great. Still, there are seeds of success here. Niese has a 7.87 K/9 mark, a solid total, but he needs to bring down the 3.58 walk per nine mark (it’s 3.06 for his career). If he reigns in the free passes, and keeps that impressive 1.88 GB/FB ratio going, he’s bound to drop that ERA into the 3′s.

Mark Teixeira (+37, $112K)
You can only keep a good man down for so long. Dealing with a nasty respiratory issue Tex’s bat has finally awoken. Mark has come alive at the dish with eight hits the last three days including three big flies and eight RBI. He’s pushed his average up to a more palatable .254, and don’t forget that, for whatever reason, Teixeira always seems to improve each year as the weather warms.

Alex Rios (+24, $99K)
Alex Rios is hitting a solid .281 on the year, and he has eight hits in his last five games. Included in those eight hits are three homers and nine RBI as he’s also tossed in a steal, his fifth of the year. He still has a long ways to go to live up to my expectations for him, but his current pace certainly looks a lot more impressive thanks to his hot week at the dish.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Josh Bell (-34, $55K)
I’m sorry folks, but Josh Bell can’t hit. There I said it. It’s only been 13 at-bats but we’re looking at two hits an a .154 average for the D’backs “third baseman.” Per his modus operandi, all Bell has done is strike out (five) and never walk (zero free passes) leaving him with a total of 83 strikeouts in 233 at-bats, an awful total. Add in his six career walks and you have someone with a 0.07 BB/K mark for his career. I didn’t even know that was possible.

Lance Lynn (-70, $246K)
Lynn has failed to go more than six innings in his last four starts, and he’s also allowed 10 runs over his last three outings leading to a 5.00 ERA. Given his overall numbers which include a 2.54 ERA and 1.09 WHIP it’s not at all surprising to see Lynn start to fall back to earth a bit. He’s been impressive to this point, but there is regression forthcoming.

Alex Rodriguez (-21, $87K)
Hitting .297 with a .796 OPS, ARod is underperforming. He’s still on pace for about 20 homers, but that’s a far cry from the 30 we are used to seeing. His total of 19 RBI also puts him on pace for less than 80, and the last time that happened in a full season was – never (he’s never had fewer than 84 RBI in a season of 440 at-bats). At least he’s stolen six bases to give him some fantasy value while he tries to figure things out at the dish.

Mike Trout (-23, $88K)
Hitting .302 with four homers, 12 RBI, 18 runs and eight steals in just 27 games is an epic start to Trout’s career. Epic. There’s been some give in his game of late as he’s seen his average drop .048 points the past week as the strikeouts have started to pile up (he has eight in six games). What, you thought he was going to flash HOF levels of production in his first full season?

Ben Zobrist (-19, $64K)
Zobrist is hitting .206. Awful. What makes it even more odd is the fact that he is barely hitting .200 despite the fact that he has three more walks than strikeouts (35 to 32). As a result of the free passes his .352 OBP is only one point short of the .353 mark he had last year when he batted .269. On pace to pretty much match last years total of 20 homers, though to fall well behind in RBI/runs, Zobrist seems primed for a run of effectiveness, but for right now he is awfully cold at the dish.

DAILY CONTEST

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By Ray Flowers

On the Cusp

You remember back in April when Kay Adams bet me that Willie Bloomquist would steal at least 26 bases this season, one more than his career best? Willie ain’t gonna make it. What a shock. Bloomquist has 19 steals on the year, only 12 after the month of April, and for the first time ever he has been caught more than six times with 10 CS. @heykayadams on Twitter better get ready to sing that Neil Diamond song and to make that video she promised she would if she lost.

Melky Cabrera has 18 homers and 20 steals. So the team will push him hard the final couple of days to give him a shot at 20/20, right? Wrong. The Royals have already said that as soon as he gets to 200 hits that they will shut him down to give others some playing time. Cabrera has 199 hits making his dream of 20/20 likely nothing more than a pipe dream. Don’t worry Royals’ fans. Jeff Francoeur pulled off the 20/20 trick with 20 homers and 22 steals. That outing was shocking given that the last time he hit 20 homers was 2006, and that he had never swiped more than eight bases in a season. Since I mentioned both of those Royals outfielders, why not mention the third as well. Alex Gordon had the breakout season that was long predicted of him as he hit .303 with 23 homers, 87 RBI, 101 runs and 17 steals. How good was that trio of outfielders? Their average 5×5 line was .297-20-87-91-20. How amazing is that?

Albert Pujols is trying to extend his major league record run of .300-30-100 to 11-straight seasons. He’s already at 37 homers, but after going 0-for-7 the past two days his average has dipped to an even .300. He’ll need to keep the hits coming while knocking in two runs to extend his streak (he has 98 RBI on the year). He’s also scored at least 100 runs in 10 of 11 seasons. The one time he missed was 2007 when he scored 99 times.

Ben Zobrist has had an uneven season no doubt, but in the end he has been highly productive. The question now is will he get to some significant statistical milestones this year. He has 19 homers, 89 RBI, 97 runs and 20 steals. A big final couple of days could give him a 20-90-100-20 season. Since 2000, there have only been three players in the AL East who have reached all four of those totals in one season: Alex Rodriguez did it three times, Alfonso Soriano twice, and Bobby Abreu once.

Last week in Exclusive Clubs, I listed a whole bunch of players with unique power/speed combos. With three days left in the season, there have been some changes.

Jacoby Ellsbury went deep three times the last two days for the Red Sox and he now has 31 homers and 38 steals. What a bounce back season.

Matt Kemp has 37 homers and 40 steals. He could, could, sneak into the 40/40 club.

Ian Kinsler went deep twice in the last four games and he also swiped four bases. That leaves him one steal from a second 30/30 effort in three seasons.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September 13, 2011

There are only a few weeks left in the 2011 fantasy baseball season, sniffle, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t still championships to be won. Here are the answers to some of the questions that I have recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Of these four, who to keep: Eric Hosmer, Dustin Ackley, Michael Pineda and Mike Trout? We start three outfielders and two utility.
– @TheRKG

Hosmer has had a spectacular rookie campaign hitting .286 with 17 homers, 69 RBI,. 56 runs and a surprising 10 steals. If he swipes 15 bases a season that will be an immense boost to his fantasy value at a position that sports, to be kind, few speed demons. However, a .285-25-90-80 season, while a terrific effort, leaves one well off the pace of the elite at the position, and that marks Hosmer’s keeper value in this setup as low.

Ackley has been as good as advertised. Hitting .290, he’s also taken his walks leading to a .367 OBP, and he’s shown solid extra base power as well for a second sacker (.452 SLG). If we take his production from 76 games this year and double it we’d end up with a second baseman hitting .290 with 12 homer, 68 RBI, 74 runs and eight steals. Those numbers would put him in contention for being a top-15 second baseman.

Pineda has been as good as advertised this year. Yes he’s had a bit of a rough go of late, but he’s still posted 171 Ks in 167 innings, has limited batters to a .208 batting average, and has a 1.08 WHIP in his 27 starts. It’s not his fault that he is 9-10 (thank his teammates anemic hitting). With a year under his belt next season, there’s no reason to expect any fall off in his production, and the team just might turn him loose for 200 innings as well.

Trout probably has more talent than anyone on this list, and that’s saying something. The uber-talented outfielder can’t legally buy a beer yet, but he has five homers, 15 RBI and 18 runs scored over just 100 at-bats. However, the Angels have Bobby Abreu, Torii Hunter and Peter Bourjos in the outfield, and if Kendrys Morales returns to action next year, that means the DH spot will be filled by him or Mark Trumbo. As you can see, there is still a chance that Trout will not open the year with the big league club so that he can gain a little more experience in the minors. Regardless, since this league starts only three outfielders, it’s nearly impossible to suggest keeping Trout.

I’m gonna pass on Trout – he’s not likely to be a top-30 outfielder next season. I’d pass on Hosmer –  I don’t think he’s going to be a top-10 first baseman either. So it’s Ackley or Pineda. Since I’m of the opinion that pitching is variable, and since a single thrown ball can end a pitchers season, I’d settle on Ackley who could be an up the middle star as soon as next year.

Keeping Roy Halladay & Matt Kemp. Can you pick two more from Yovani Gallardo, Michael Bourn, Brian McCann, John Axford, Ben Zobrist and David Ortiz?
– @JonMize1978

Having a better pitcher/hitter combo will be hard to find, so you’re in great shape there.

Gallardo has won 16 games with 183 Ks, a 3.66 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. He’s inconsistent as all hell, but in the end, the production simply cannot be argued with (there are only four pitchers in the NL with 16 wins and 180 Ks – Clayton Kershaw, Cliff Lee, Halladay and Gallardo).

Bourn has 52 steals to lead baseball, his third straight season with at least 50 swipes. He’s also recorded at least 84 runs for the third straight season, and for the second time in three years it looks like he will hit at least .285 (he’s batting .301 right now). He’s an elite performer at what he does.

McCann is as consolid a hitter at the catchers’ position as you’re going to find. He’s hit 23 homers this year, his fourth straight season of at least 21 and the fifth time in six years he has done that. He’s also just four RBI away from a sixth straight season of 70 RBI. There isn’t a more consistent power bat in the game behind the dish.

Axford has been stupendous this year with a 2.16 ERA and 42 saves for the Brewers. His last blown save was on April 18th.

Zobrist qualifies in the outfield and at second base, and that is always a nice bonus. He’s also had a fantastic fantasy season as he’s hit .274 with 15 homers, 82 RBI, 88 runs and 17 steals. Mind you, this is the second time in three seasons that he will go .270-15-80-85-15. As of this writing only four players have done that twice the past three years – Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Kemp, Ryan Braun and Zobrist.

Ortiz is having a fantastic season, he’s on the cusp of his first .300-30-100 season since 2007 (he is hitting .313 with 29 homers and 92 RBI). However, he’ll be 36 next year, has never been a paragon of physical fitness, and he hit .264, .238 and .270 the past three years. Throw in the fact that he only qualifies at DH, and he has limited value.

If I’m protecting four players, only one of them is going to be a pitcher, so Gallardo is out. As great as McCann is, I just don’t trust catchers to stay healthy, so I wouldn’t protect him either. Closers come and go each season, so Axford is out. I love Ortiz and his happy go lucky attitude, but I’m not keeping a DH. That leaves me with Bourn, a truly elite stolen base performer, and Zobrist who is a much better hitter than anyone gives him credit for.

Colby Lewis on waivers – worth a pick up?
– @Robert6286

Colby has won 12 games for the second straight year though his performance has slipped a hair (his ERA has gone from 3.72 to 4.29 and his WHIP from 1.19 to 1.23). Four starts ago his ERA was 3.83 though, but he’s been hit hard over his last four outings leading to 19 earned runs in 21.1 innings for an 8.02 ERA. Normally I would say something like “it’s only four starts, things will even out,” and though I still believe that, we don’t have much time left this year for that stuff to even out. What that means is you need to manage your team differently than you do in May, and by that I mean you have to be looking at each step you take versus focusing on where the steps will take you.

Lewis is a solid hurler who has actually pitched slightly better in the second half of the season (4.15 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) than the first (4.38 and 1.24). Still, he is in the middle of a bad spell right now. His next scheduled start is the 17th in Seattle then the 24th at home against Seattle. You really can’t ask for two better match-ups. So do you start a pitcher with great match-ups, or do you look at his recent work on the bump and run for the hills? I’d let your place in the standings be the ultimate arbiter of that question, but I would hesitate to employ his services unless I was really in need of those innings.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Random Musings

Bryce Harper walks on water, saves babies from sunburn with a glance that causes the sun to recede, and never makes an out. Never. Well, at least that’s what some people seem to think. The uber-prospect, judged by many to be the best talent in baseball in the minors despite being just 18 years old, simply killed it at Single-A ball this year. He may have made some outs, in fact he made a ton, but overall he was a dynamic option hitting .318 with 14 homers, 46 RBI, 49 runs and 19 steals in just 72 games. The groundswell was that he was going to ascend all the way to the majors this season (I for one have remained steadfast in my belief that he won’t be a full-time player for the Nationals until at least June of next season. At least.). In nine games at Double-A it’s all gone wrong for Harper (he skipped High-A). It’s only been nine games so there is zero reason to panic, but he has hit .194 with two runs and two RBI’s. The game just isn’t that easy folks. Harper will figure it out in due time and start mashing again, nothing will stop him from doing that, but be realistic with the kid and his progress. Nothing happens overnight.

Jeff Keppinger was dealt from the Astros to the Giants. For my thoughts on the deal see Giants Deal for Keppinger.

Speaking of the Giants, Pablo Sandoval is out of the lineup Wednesday after tweaking his quad on Tuesday. The issue doesn’t appear to be serious, but the club is just playing it safe with their most important hitter. And hit Sandoval has done lately. Since returning from surgery on his wrist, Sandoval has appeared in 32 games. He’s had a hit in 30 of those contests on his way to racking up a .316 average. Guess what he’s hitting on the year? How about .315. For his career, four at-bats short of 1,500, Sandoval is hitting .306.

Placido Polanco will have an epidural on Thursday as he continues to waste away on the DL because of a bugling disk in his back. After being an MVP in April (.398 with 19 RBI) Polanco has resembled a washed up middle infielder who is barely hanging on hitting just .216 with 20 RBI over 57 games.

If you’re looking for a good matchup on the hill, it will be tough to beat Tim Lincecum vs. Clayton Kershaw today. Lincecum enters the day with a 2.99 ERA and 9.67 K/9 rate while Kershaw has a 2.88 ERA and 10.13 K/9 mark. There may not be a better lefty-rigthty matchup at any point this season, so watch these two NL West aces face-off today if you get the chance.

The last 28 days did you know…

Aramis Ramirez has hit 12 homers with 25 RBI and 23 runs scored. He’s been the best hitter in baseball in that time. Jose Bautista isn’t far behind with 10 homers, 20 RBI and 19 runs scored.

Emilio Bonifacio has hit .357 with 13 steals. You do know he has no chance of sustaining even 80 percent of that level of production moving forward, right?

Nick Markakis has hit .381. Moreover, the Orioles’ outfielder has hit a robust .347 over his last 41 games to raise his season long average to .293.

Curtis Granderson has hit only .240 but he leads the AL with 22 runs in that time. Granderson also has 19 walks, tied with Ben Zobrist for the most in baseball. Zobrist has a .429 OBP, Granderson .396. Both those numbers are wonderful, but amongst every day players those totals pale in comparison to the .477 mark of Yunel Escobar.

Jose Reyes has only 48 at-bats because of his leg injury, but he hasn’t picked up a single strikeout. Reyes also has an amazing .519 OBP.

Ray Flowers

Two Weeks

photo © 2009 petercruise | more info (via: Wylio)

Everyone always likes to take things out of context. Come on, admit it, you’ve done it yourself.

Player A goes 6-for-10 and you want to add him to your club even though he hit .218 last year.

Player B throws a shutout and you want to add him at the cost of a guy who has 175 Ks last year.

Britney Spears is a great singer. Well, if the “context” is me and her in a direct competition, than she is a great singer.

(For more on the idea of “context” make sure you give Context Revisited a read).

Today the context that we will use is FOURTEEN DAYS as in the last 14 days of the 2011 season. When we look at that tiny sample size just look at the craziness that we find.

* Ben Zobrist leads all of baseball with 16 runs scored in just 12 games played. He’s totally going to score more than 210 runs this season. Freddy Sanchez and Aramis Ramirez haven’t scored a single run the past 14 days.

* Mark Ellis and Miguel Tejada haven’t knocked in a single run the past two weeks. Lance Berkman has 17 RBI.

* Adam Lind leads baseball with six homers and he’s second with 15 RBI. To compare, Adrian Gonzalez has three homers and 12 RBI. Is there a single person out there who would prefer to have Lind over A-Gone on their team? If you raised your hand “yes” on that one then your must be related to Lind.

* Prince Fielder is hitting .149, the same mark as Starlin Castro. Anyone want to take me up on my bet that Matt Joyce (.457) doesn’t nearly triple those two in batting average this season?

* Troy Tulowitzki, you remember, the guy everyone was saying would be the most productive fantasy player in the game about three weeks ago after his massive start to the year, has hit .093 the past two weeks. He’s also posted an OPS of .426 in that time. Tulo’s career SLG is higher than that at .497.

* Colby Lewis has a HR/9 mark of 2.57. Anyone out there think that they Lewis is going to end the year with HR/9 mark more than double double previous his previous level (it was 0.94 last year)?

* Rarely is there ever an absolute in the world, but in this case there certainly is one. Shaun Marcum, Jason Hammel, Jhoulys Chacin and Josh Tomlin have 100 percent left on base percentage marks the past two weeks. Given that no one is perfect, and that the big league average is usually right around 70 percent, you know which way this number is going for all for men – drastically downward.

* The last two weeks five pitchers in baseball have an ERA under 1.00 – Shaun Marcum, Trevor Cahill, Jason Hammel, Vance Worley and Madison Bumgarner. It’s possible that at the end of the year that this five-some of arms will have a combined ERA of 4.00.

* I know that Roy Halladay is the best pitcher in baseball, but I’m fairly certain he won’t be able to maintain his 18.00 K/BB rate from the past two weeks. I’m also going to go out on a limb and say that Daniel Hudson (17.00) and David Price (14.00) won’t be able to keep up their paces either. How can I say that? The single season record, for a minimum of 162 innings pitched, is 11.00 by Bret Saberhagen in 1994.

Remember folks – context and sample size are key. If you focus to so closely on what is right in front of you there might be situations that arise in which you actually think that Britney Spears is a great singer. Pay attention to what is going on at all times, but never lose site of the context.

By Ray Flowers

Zobrist on Fire – Lowe an Idiot

photo © 2009 Matt McGee | more info (via: Wylio)

Ben Zobrist had a day for the ages on Thursday. In Game 1 of a doubleheader with the Twins, Zobrist pounded out four hits including a homer and eight RBI (that’s not a typo). He also tossed in two runs and a steal for good measure. In the second game he only had three hits and didn’t steal a bag, but he did hit a homer, drive in two runs and score three times. Twp games netted Zobrist two bombs, 10 RBI, five runs and a steal and all of a sudden he looks like a star. Moreover, Big Ben, and that’s his new name in these parts, has knocked in at least two runs in five straight games and now leads baseball with 25 RBI in 25 games. Wasn’t it just a week ago that many of you, and you know who you are, were sending me emails and tweets about dropping this guy? Remember what I said? Hopefully you listened and held on.

I pointed this out before, though I know that no one listened to me at the time (in fact, I remember specifically sneers and derision followed my comments). I mentioned this preseason that I had no idea why Rickie Weeks was being taken in drafts 80 picks ahead of Zobrist. I even went as far as to compare the two directly to one another and suggest that Zobrist would likely be the better value play. How could I make such a statement? Per 500 at-bats over the past three years (2008-2010) there was really no difference between the two.

Weeks: .256-20-60-90-13
Zobrist: .265-20-79-81-18

Again, at the time I was called a fool by many. Now you know me and my sample size argument that I always throw out there, so I’m not going to sit here and say “I was right’ after just a month of games. I will say though that my side of the argument looks pretty good right about now, doesn’t it?

Weeks: .309-6-10-21-2
Zobrist: .258-7-25-18-4

If you look at the shortstop position you will see that Asdrubal Cabrera leads all AL shortstops in runs batted in with 15 and that he is second in the league in runs scored at the position with 14. Somehow, that hot start has caused everyone to think that he is going to be a fantasy star this year. Folks, it ain’t gonna happen. Over his last 11 games he has one RBI and it’s been 14 games since he hit a homer. Let me break it down for you all in case you were wondering – Cabrera really isn’t anything more than an average option in mixed leagues despite the hot start. Per 500 at-bats in his career he’s produced a fantasy line of .283-7-60-70-9. While that’s certainly a passable line for a middle infielder, it’s not much different than what a guy like Jason Bartlett has produced over his career (.279-6-48-71-20). Don’t be swayed too heavily by the hot start.

Derek Lowe received a DUI last night. According to the police report he was not only intoxicated but he was also racing his 2011 Porsche Panamera – a really nondescript car to be speeding in. Tell me, do you drive home drunk? OK, maybe you drive home after you’ve had a few drinks, but aren’t you extra careful to do nothing to gain anyone’s attention? You make sure to stop, you probably drive on the backstreets, and you certainly don’t act like Jimmie Johnson racing down the street, do you? That misses the real point though. According to BaseballReference.com Derek Lowe has made more than $80 million dollars during his career. For goodness sakes Derek, hire a flipping driver. I’ve never understood why pro athletes, who can burn money in the fireplace for heat, don’t pay some guy $150,000 to drive them everywhere. Make the guy sign a non-disclosure agreement so he won’t talk about all the elicit things he sees and just be done with it. Morons. Maybe @Dwade had it right on Twitter when he wrote “… in Lowe’s defense, it’s really hard to convince the limo driver to drag race.”

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD 2011: PART I

I was fortunate to be invited back to KFFL’s Fantasy Baseball Analysis Draft, K-BAD for short, for the second straight year. Last year, despite some injury and poor performance, I was able to grab third place in the league, a mere 0.5 points out of second place (you can see the team I drafted by visiting 2010 K-BAD: PART III. This year I am back to finish at the top of the heap.

In what follows you’ll see the players I chose for the 12-team, 5×5 mixed league, as well as being able to read my thoughts on why I chose the players that I did. For a full review of the entire league and what the other owners were thinking while they were making their selections (there are certainliy some big name participants in the draft), make sure you visit the K-BAD Homepage at KFFL.

* Note: All comments were written in real time meaning they were penned right after the choice was made (the draft is a “slow draft” type setup where people have two hours to make a selection as we are all squeezing in the draft during our busy work days).

Round 1-8: Ryan Braun, OF, Brewers.
Braun should be a top-5 selection in all drafts (I had him at #3 overall in The Top-25 for 2011), so I was exceedingly pleased to take him 8th overall. In each of his four seasons Braun has produced a 5×5 line of at least .285-25-97-91-14. Only four men reached those totals in 2010 – and those are Braun’s career worst totals.

Round 2-5: Chase Utley, 2B, Phillies.
In my book Utley is still the top dog at second, ever so slightly ahead of Robinson Cano because of his steal potential (you can see my argument in Top-10 2B for 2011). Injured last season, Utley was still on pace for 22 homers, 88 RBI, 101 runs and 18 thefts if he had played 155 games.

Round 3-8: Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pirates.
I didn’t think McCutchen would make it back to me next round, so I figured I might as well make a move now if I wanted to roster this luminous talent. The Pirates dampen his outlook somewhat, but Andrew is one of those players who can be a five category contributor with the potential to blow up in 2012.

Round 4-5: Adam Dunn, 1B, White Sox.
I almost took the plunge on Ian Kinsler, but with Chase Utley already on board at second, I went for the mind numbing consistency of Dunn. I’ll take the 40 homers and 100 RBI that he will produce knowing he could push 50 dingers in his new home in Chicago.

Round 5-8: CC Sabathia, SP, Yankees.
I never go pitching this early in 12 team drafts, but I couldn’t pass up the value that Sabathia brings given this draft spot after 2-straight seasons of at least 19 wins, 197 Ks and a 1.19 WHIP. I’ll wait on outfielders and hopefully get one of my targets next round.

Round 6-5: B.J. Upton, OF, Rays .
Sweet. Upton was one of three outfielders I almost took in the fifth round, so taking Sabathia with my last pick didn’t hinder me in the least. Shane Victorino is a safer selection than Upton, but one of these days Upton is gonna to have a monster season. Will it be 2011?

Round 7-8: Tommy Hanson, SP, Braves.
I never take two SPs in my first seven choices – never – but when Martin Prado and Stephen Drew were taken right before me I went with Hanson. Not seeing any hitters who stuck out, I figured I’d take the top SP on my board and then head back to offense in the next couple of rounds.

Round 8-5: Mark Reynolds, 3B, Orioles.
I really wanted to take Ben Zobrist for the positional flexibility, but third base was getting thin fast. Plus, I already have a second sacker in Utley. I think there’s still talent at the seocnd base position, so I’ll wait to add up the middle strength until the next round.

Round 9-8: Ben Zobrist, 2B/OF, Rays.
This draft is playing out exactly as I hoped. I took Mark Reynolds last round hoping to wait for my MI option, and the strategy worked to perfection as I grabbed Zobrist. I was tempted to take Howie Kendrick, but dual position eligibility swung my selection to Zobrist.

Round 10-5: Joakim Soria RP, Royals.
I really like having one closer I can count on, and Soria is an absolute beast. I also figured that my selection of a closer would cause others to target the bullpen hopefully letting others I covet to fall to me in the 11th round (Note: I was right as Neftali Felix, Jonathan Papelbon and Mariano Rivera were taken in the next six picks).

In PART II, I’ll continue my review of the squad.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

Did you know that I’m tall (6’3″)? Did you know that I wear size 13 shoes? Did you know that I have a rule that I don’t get up before the sun? I know that isn’t the type of did you know that you were planning to read, so before I lull you into a semi-comatose state with more mundane “Ray facts” let’s get to the meat of this piece.

Mike Napoli leads all catchers with 20 homers. Only 12 of those bombs have come as a catcher, eight have come as a first basemen, but you get the point. Moreover, the 20 homers from a catcher eligible player are more than the combined total of Buster Posey (nine) and Joe Mauer (eight) who are hitting a combined .335.

Albert Pujols is pushing for the NL Triple Crown with a .319 average (third – Joey Votto leads the league at .323), 33 homers (first) and 92 RBI (first). He’s also second in the league in OPS at 1.013 (two percentage points behind Votto). But did you know… Albert Pujols also leads all first basemen in the game with 12 steals. And he’s having a down season?

There isn’t a single second basemen, who qualifies for the batting title, who has an OBP of .400 as Robinson Cano has a .390 mark. Can also leads the position with a .326 batting average, a .568 SLG, a .958 OPS, 35 doubles and 87 RBI. Yeah, Cano has been pretty good, which is kinda like saying that Adrianna Lima is hot.

Casey McGehee has been insanely good given his draft day cost. McGehee has hit 20 homers this season which just so happens to be one less than Alex Rodriguez. Moreover, McGehee has more homers than a litany of fantasy stars at the hot corner; Michael Young (19), Kevin Youkilis (19), David Wright (19), Aramis Ramirez (19) and Evan Longoria (18). Casey’s total of 82 RBI is also more than Wright (81), Mark Reynolds (71), Young (70), Ryan Zimmerman (70).
Yunieksy Betancourt has more RBI (61) than any shortstop in the American League. Read that again to make sure you’ve got it. For that matter, any idea who leads NL shortstops in RBI? In another minor miracle, it’s Juan Uribe (66). Let’s keep building on the craziness. I haven’t even mentioned the man who leads all shortstops in RBI – Alex Gonzalez who has 70. He had 50 as a member of the Blue Jays and 20 as a member of the Braves.
Brennan Boesch hit .342 with 12 homers and a .990 OPS in 65 games before the All-Star break. Since that point he has played 37 games and he his hit a sickly .145 with two homers and a .429 OPS. Think about that. He has literally been less than half the player he was in the first half.

Juan Pierre has 49 steals leaving him one short of a fifth season of at least 50 thefts. Since he began his career in 2000, there are only two men that can rival that level of production. Jose Reyes has four 50-steal seasons in that time whereas Carl Crawford has five 50-steal efforts. Mr. Crawford needs nine more steals this season to push his career mark to six 50-steal seasons.

The Giants’ Andres Torres is having a special season. Amongst players who qualify as a right fielder, Torres is sixth in OPS (.866), sixth in OBP (.370) and seventh in SLG (.499). Torres also has scored 71 runs – one more than Justin Upton – and his total of 23 steals makes him one of only five qualifiers at the position with at least 20 (Ichiro Suzuki, Angel Pagan, Will Venable and Ben Zobrist).

Everyone has been talking about Roy Halladay, Adam Wainwright, Ubaldo Jimenez and Josh Johnson, but has anyone noticed who is leading the AL in ERA this season with a 2.26 mark? The answer is none other than Clay Buchholz of the Red Sox. Clay hasn’t given up an earned run in his last three starts, and five times in his last nine trips to the hill he has emerged unscathed. Not bad for a guy who entered the year with a grand total of 36 games under his belt.

Not many have taken notice, but Neftali Feliz is about to make history. After tossing a total of 31 innings last season, Neftali still qualifies for the AL Rookie of the Year award. If that isn’t cool enough, how about the fact that he is a mere seven saves from setting an all-time rookie record. The current mark is 37 held by Kaz Sasaki. Of course, Sasaki was 32 years old when he came to the States after a career of success in Japan, so that number really shouldn’t count – at least in this scribes book.

By Ray Flowers

2009 NL All-Star Team

Who were the best fantasy options in the National League in 2009? There are names that certainly jump to mind, guys like Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez, but there were also a couple of tricky calls as I filled out my ballot for the best that the Senior Circuit had to offer in 2009.

If you want to catch my thoughts on who I filled out my American League team with, click on the link to 2009 AL All-Star Team.

CATCHER:Brian McCann

Whether or not he could see at what he was swinging at (he will undergo another LASIK procedure for his eyes this offseason), McCann made enough loud contact to lead NL catchers in homers (21) and RBI (94) while hitting .281, He also managed to lead all catchers with a .834 OPS. This was the fourth straight year that he has knocked in at least 87 runs.

FIRST BASE:Albert Pujols

It’s not a tough call at all when you are talking about the best right-handed hitter of our generation, and flat out the most dominating offensive weapon at the dish in baseball in 2009 regardless of position. Pujols hit 47 homers, knocked in 135 runs, scored 124 times and even swiped 16 bases. He also finished third in the NL in average (.327), first in OBP (.443) and first in SLG (.658). That pretty much says it all.

SECOND BASE:Chase Utley

Though his average slumped to .282, Utley was one of just two second sackers in the NL who went 20/20 (the other was Brandon Phillips) as he socked 31 dingers while swiping a career best 23 bags. Utley also crossed home plate 112 times while knocking in 93 on his way to while posting a .905 OPS. That’s a hell of a season no matter where you play defense.

THIRD BASE:Mark Reynolds

I was this close to going with Pablo Sandoval. After all, the Kung Fu Panda bettered Reynolds in AVG (.330 to .260), OBP (.387 to .349), SLG (.556 to .543) and OPS (.934 to .892). Still, Reynolds went 40/20 while scoring 98 runs and knocking in 102, so he won out in the end.

SHORTSTOP:Hanley Ramirez

There is no debate here whatsoever. Hanley hit a league leading .342, socked 24 big flies, knocked in 106 runs, scored 101 of his own and swiped 27 bags as he posted a .954 OPS. No one, other than Troy Tulowitzki (.297-32-92-101-20), was even considered.

OUTFIELD:Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, Jayson Werth

Braun hit .320 and led all NL outfielders with 114 RBI and 113 runs. Kemp went 20/20 while hitting .297 with 101 RBI and 97 runs. Werth also went 20/20 as he hit .268 with 36 homers with 99 RBI and 98 runs. Michael Bourne, an extremely unlikely name, almost made the cut with his 61 steals, a .285 average and 97 runs scored.

STARTING PITCHER:Tim Lincecum, Adam Wainwright, Chris Carpenter

That’s the order these top-3 should be ranked in as well, a fact I discussed previously in The NL Cy Young Race .

RELIEF PITCHER:Jonathan Broxton

Really, is there any doubt here? Sure Heath Bell (42), Francisco Cordero (39), Ryan Franklin (38), Brian Wilson (38) and Trevor Hoffman (37) each had more than Broxton’s 36 saves, but Broxton led the group with seven victories while his 0.96 WHIP was third. However, it’s the 114 Ks that set him apart – no on else in the aforementioned group recorded even 85 punchouts.

By Ray Flowers