The Stange Case of Rafael Soriano

Rafael Soriano is still looking for work. There is no telling what his agent Scott Boras is asking for – my guess is that he is telling everyone that Soriano is the second best closer in baseball history behind Mariano Rivera – but the fire-balling righty is still looking for a job. Reports this week were that he would considering serving as the setup man for Rivera with the Yankees, but the Yanks quickly shot down that rumor and said they weren’t interested in dropping a ton of dough for a setup man (could that change if Andy Pettitte officially retires?). So where will Soriano end end? There aren’t too many openings to fill 9th inning roles left vacant, so perhaps Soriano will have to settle for a smaller money deal, something that seemed unlikely a few weeks back when guys like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier were getting 3-year deals. Has Mr. Boras finally failed one of his clients? You should know better than to doubt Mr. Boras at this point.

The real reason for the reluctance of teams to shed out major dinero for Soriano must be tied to his awful record of health since he has kept many a trainer/doctor in business over the years with a plethora of arm issues constantly slowing him down. Here are his innings pitched totals since he reached the big leagues.

47.1
53.0
3.1
7.1
60.0
72.0
14.0
75.2
62.1

Let me sum that up for you. In three of last eight seasons Soriano didn’t even toss 15 innings. Would you be comfortable giving a guy like that $10 million a year? Me neither. At the same time, Soriano has tossed 60-innings in back-to-back seasons for the second time (the first was in 2006-07), though it’s not as if he has been 100 percent healthy in that time. The fact of the matter is that all pitchers are at risk with every toss, though Soriano is clearly much more likely to come down with some ailment than your average hurler.

All of Soriano’s injuries have obscured the fact that he is an absolutely dynamic pill tosser. Check out his career numbers. They are scintillating.

2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 3.58 K/BB, .193 BAA

You think those numbers are great? They are, but his 2010 effort made even those strong totals look average.

1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 8.23 K/9, 4.07 K/BB, .163 BAA

Wow is right.

I didn’t even mention that Soriano racked up a career best 45 saves to lead the AL (he entered the year with 43 career saves). Soriano also posted the fourth best ERA in baseball for any hurler with at least 60-innings pitched while his WHIP was second (Joaquin Benoit was first at 0.68). That’s some serious dealing folks.

Someone is going to end up with one hell of a reliever. The only question is will he be able to stay healthy long enough to reward that team for their investment in his golden arm?

All Free Agent Team

I’m scheduled to visit with Jeff Rickard on Saturday around 11 AM PST on MLB Network Radio to talk free agents. We’re actually going to discuss whether or not you could put together a fantasy worthy team of players still looking to find a home for 2011 (i.e. they are free agents). Here is my all free agent fantasy team.

C: Bengie Molina
1B: Russell Branyan
2B: Adam Kennedy
3B: Jorge Cantu
SS: Orlando Cabrera
OF: Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Johnny Damon
DH: Jim Thome
SP: Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Bruce Chen, Kevin Millwood, Freddy Garcia, Brad Penny, Chris Young
RP: Mr. Soriano of course, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Chad Qualls

It’s not exactly a powerhouse team that would win any leagues, but I’ve also seen people put together worse teams.

By Ray Flowers

World Series: Giants vs. Rangers

With the 2010 World Series set to start today I will go through the lineups of the San Francisco Giants and the Texas Rangers to see which club has the advantage.

Oh, and if you are in search of that link for the NL Rookie of the Year, well, there you go.

By Ray Flowers

World Series: Giants vs. Rangers

No one could have predicted this back in April. The San Francisco Giants and the Texas Rangers will face one another in the World Series for the first time. Not only that, this will mark the first time that two teams with World Series droughts of at least 49 years since their last championship will square off (in the case of the Rangers, they have never won a title). Here are some other interesting facts as we get ready for the final battle of the 2010 season.

* Two Rangers have hitting streaks of 11 games (every game the team has played this postseason). Nelson Cruz is batting .375 with five homers, eight RBI an a 1.294 OPS while Elvis Andrus is hitting .333 with six runs scored and seven steals for the team from the Lone Star State.

* Eleven is the number of consecutive games in this postseason that the Rangers have homered in, one short of the record of 12 set by the 2004 Astros.

* The Giants have tied the playoff record with six victories in one postseason by a single run (the 1972 Athletics pulled off the same trick). The Giants won 28 of the 52 one-run games they had during the regular season.

* Vladimir Guerrero had 115 RBI during the regular season while batting .300, but his body is no longer capable of playing everyday, especially if he is taxed by playing in the field (he played 18 games in the field this season). Therefore, the Rangers are planning on using Vlad in only one game in San Francisco in Games 1 and 2 since the DH will not be in effect.

* Josh Hamilton was the ALCS MVP after hitting .350 with four homers, but more impressive was the fact that he reached base in 15 of his 28 plate appearances (.536 OBP).

* The Rangers have never reached the World Series before while the Giants are 5-12 over the history of the franchise. However, the Giants have never won the Series while playing on the left coast as they lost in 1962 in seven games to the Yankees, in 2002 they fell in seven games to the Angels, and in 1989 they lost to the Athletics in the Series that was delayed because of the Loma Prieta earthquake.

* Cliff Lee will start Game 1 for the Rangers. He is 7-0 with a 1.26 ERA in eight postseason starts earning himself the moniker of “the” big game pitcher going (with all due respect to guys like Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Andy Pettitte to name just a few).

* Bengie Molina will get a World Series ring no matter who wins. He played 61 games with the Giants before he was traded to the Rangers where he suited up for 57 games.

* Cody Ross was the NLCS MVP for the Giants after hitting three homers with five RBI an a .350 batting average in the six game victory over the Phillies. He is also working on a 7-game postseason hitting streak, the second longest in franchise history in the playoffs.

* Only two teams have won a best of seven series with each of their four victories coming by at least four runs – the 2007 Red Sox and the 2010 Rangers.

* Brian Wilson became the fourth pitcher in history to pick up a win or save in each of his teams four victories in one playoff round (he had one win and three saves). The others are Dennis Eckersley (1988 ALCS), Mitch Williams (1993 NLCS) and John Wetteland (1996 World Series).

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: ALCS Preview

Ray Flowers breaks down the American League Championship Series with a position by position breakdown of the Yankees and the Rangers.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 30, 2010

(1) Jose Reyes injured in batting practice. Should be OK.

(2) Nate McLouth still having concussion related symptoms.

(3) Erik Bedard nearing a return to big leagues.

(4) Bengie Molina to be moved to the Rangers?

(5) Clayton Richard has 10 Ks vs. the Rockies.

(6) Mike Gonzalez might be out until All-Star break.

(7) B.J. Upton out with quad injury.

(8) Jair Jurrjens returns for the Braves.

By Ray Flowers

Looking for a Change

I’ve had one of those days. You know, the ones that start out promising but by 9:30 you realize it’s all already gone horribly wrong. The ironic thing is that I was joking this morning on the Fanball podcast that when it goes horribly wrong I just pull back on the Captain Morgan Rum. Little did I know I was going to need it on this day. But don’t worry I’ll bounce back on Thursday, I’ve got me a plan to really enjoy myself, so this frown will be turned upside down soon enough. What about the following players who have been struggling mightily over the past 30 days – are the going to be flashing the pearly whites or burying their face in their bent arm trying to avoid the press?

Coming into play on Wednesday night, Bengie Molina was hitting .248. As recently as May 17th, less than a month ago, he was hitting a robust .330. How is it possible to fall so hard, so fast? Molina has had five hits – total – in his last 16 games. That’s right, Molina is 5-for-54 which works out to a .093 average the past few weeks. It has to get better than that, but he has been so awful all year you can’t possibly have him active in your lineup right now unless you start two catchers, and even then you could probably do better at the moment.

Over the past 30 days, the worst hitter in the bigs who has played on a regular basis is Cliff Pennington of the A’s at .124 which is actually light years worse than the .179 mark of the aforementioned Molina. Lest you think there are only two struggling hitters in the Bay Area, Aaron Rowand has the second worst mark in baseball in that time frame at .147. That’s ugly, and there is little sign of a turnaround for either Pennington or Rowand.

Aaron Hill is hitting .170 to extend his run of horrid work at the dish. A year after hitting .286, his third season in four years of at least .286 by the way, Hill is hitting .183 on the year. That’s right, his recent run of hitting futility is only imperceptibly worse than his work over the entirety of the season. I can’t fathom how it’s possible that he currently has a 7.6 percent line drive rate which is roughly 40 percent of his career 19.3 percent mark. His season just has to turn around at some point. It’s like he’s hitting with his eyes closed.

How had has Aaron Rowand been? He’s been so pathetic that his .172 OBP is still worse than the .179 batting average of Bengie Molina’s younger brother Yadier Molina (.179). I think I’ve just about overdosed either Molina’s and Capt. Morgan. OK, maybe just on Molina’s.

Matt Wieters, nicknamed The Messiah by some in Baltimore, continues to hit more like a defrocked priest than The Savior. Wieters hasn’t even hit his weight the past 30 days at .189, and he hasn’t gone deep even one time in those 74 at-bats. For a guy with such a smooth stroke and a background that screams for domination at the dish, he has been completely clueless for most of this season.

Ichiro Suzuki is hitting .374 — oops. That is barely good enough for a fifth place finish in that time: Miguel Olivo (.394), Justin Morneau (.391), Robinson Cano (.386) and Luke Scott (.382).

Nyjer Morgan has only two RBI, the same total as Ryan Theriot – the worst amongst regulars. Juan Pierre is tied for second worst with three RBI, but that is hardly a shock given that all three of these guys make their money with their legs and with slapping the ball around the yard. However, it is amazing to think that David Murphy, of the offensively minded Rangers, has just three RBI over his last 89 plate appearances. You have to think that will change moving forward as he has the ability to drive the ball much more effectively than we have seen for the majority of the season.

So there you have it. A quick rundown of some of the worst of the worst right now. I’m off to eat a little something since I have to get something on my stomach to avoid having this rum go to my head.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries and Failures

Today was a good day. I accomplished all the writing I had hoped to get to, answered a ton of emails, had a strong podcast this morning with Kyle Elfrink, and closed down the day with a nice two hour shift of Live Advice. Before I drift off into the mist of Friday night, and a potential date (keep your fingers crossed), I thought I would wrap up the day with some notes from what is going on around the diamond, so here goes nothing.

Giants fans, here is your catcher update for the week. Bengie Molina is second on the Giants with eight RBI and he is batting .317 through 12 games. Amazingly, he also has two walks already, a breakneck pace for a guy who walked 13 times last year in 132 games (how pathetic is that and the corresponding .285 OBP?). Down on the farm the heir apparent, Buster Posey, is batting .373 through 15 games. Buster also has eight walks against nine strikeouts helping him to post a .457 OBP and a .949 OPS. There is no doubt that Posey already has a better approach at the dish than Molina, but Molina has enough power at the plate, and works very well with the staff on defense, so don’t be at all surprised to see Posey continue to toil away in the minors for a while unless there is an injury with the Giants.

The A’s Kevin Kouzmanoff has hit .215 with .308 SLG and a .572 OPS in his first 17 games with his new club. Some other disturbing numbers with KK follow. (1) He is hitting .056 with RISP (1-for-18). (2) He is batting .156 with runners on base. (3) Fifty-eight of his 66 ABs this season have come out of the cleanup spot. The A’s finally dropped him to sixth in the order the other night.

Manny Ramirez has been placed on the DL with a calf injury. It’s being called a strain so let’s hope that 15 days on the sidelines will be enough to cure him. Xavier Paul has been recalled from the minors to take his roster spot, though it looks like Reed Johnson and Garret Anderson will likely take Manny’s place in the everyday lineup. None of those three have close to the presence of Manny, and none figure to be able to match his early season work at the dish either (.415 with a 1.159 OPS through 13 games). I really went out on a limb with that statement didn’t I?

The Red Sox have been about as successful throwing out attempted base thieves this season as I have been trying to convince beautiful ladies to go out with me. Let’s just say neither of us has had a high success rate, but I would have to think my mark is better than the what the Red Sox have been getting from Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek (the Sox have thrown out just one of 38 steal attempts). The rumor is that the Sox have an interest in bringing Chris Snyder out east to join their club. Of course, this won’t happen for a while as the D’backs can’t afford to move Snyder at least until Miguel Montero returns from his knee injury. Snyder has thrown out just 25.9 percent of base stealers in his career, and is only 2-for-12 this year (16.7 percent), but the Sox are fairly desperate at this point because of their inept duo.

Ryan Zimmerman is out of the lineup on Friday after injuring his other hamstring. He also figures to miss Saturday’s game, but the belief is still that he should be good enough to go come next week. Cristian Guzman will continue to fill in with Adam Kennedy at second and Ian Desmond playing short.

Ben Zobrist was given a 5-year deal that could be worth up to $32.5 million dollars after last year’s breakout season. Apparently he’ll get about $18 million guaranteed with a couple of option years that could take the deal up to that original total. The Rays aren’t usually wrong with their talent evaluation, and they certainly have to be proactive given their financial situation, but that seems like a fair bit of loot to lavish on a guy who has only one full big league season under his belt.

Finally, here are a couple of links to stories I wrote on Friday.

What are the Cubs thinking with their move of Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen? Impact Report: Gorzelanny/Silva/Zambrano.

For those of you who have a special place in your heart for hockey, here is a quick jaunt around the frozen pond where I discuss all the first round playoff matchups. Frozen Pucks.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.5, 2010

(1) Buster Posey to play the infield in spring?

(2) Madison Bumgarner Giants 5^th starter?

(3) Orlando Hudson to Twins results in Adam Kennedy to Nationals.

(4) Yorvit Torrealba ends up with Padres.

(5) Brandon Webb to throw off mound.

(6) Kevin Gregg is the newest member of the Blue Jays bullpen.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Jan. 21, 2010

* Bengie Molina re-signs with Giants, leaves Mets in trouble.
* Tim Lincecum asks for record $13 million, Giants submit $8 million.
* Felix Hernandez signs deal with Mariners for 5-years, $78 million (average of $15.6 annually).
* Johnny Damon to retire?
* Ben Sheets hits 91-92, throws some curves in 55 pitch outing for scouts.
* Jim Edmonds to return to active duty?
* Paul Lo Duca signs with Rockies.
* Carl Pavano gets $7 million from Twins.
* Dave Bush to get at least $4 million from Brewers.
* Brad Lidge says he is healthy after two surgeries.
* White Sox: Andrew Jones ($500K) says he is in great shape.
* Octavio Dotel close to signing with Pirates, could close.
* Dexter Fowler hires Scott Boras as agent.
* Robinson Tejada signs with Royals for $950K.

By Ray Flowers

Is There Room for a DH?

Of all the players on the HOF ballot not tied to the performance enhancing drug scandal, none engenders more heated debate than Edgar Martinez. Purists scoff at the notion of a designated hitter being enshrined in the Hall of Fame, while those who study the art of hitting, as well as the numbers seem to suggest that there is little to warrant keeping Martinez out of the Hall. Let’s take a look at both sides.

1- A DH cannot be in the Hall of Fame.
No full-time DH has been elected to the HOF (Martinez played in 2,055 games with 591 coming as either a first or third baseman meaning less than 29 percent of his career games required a mitt). Personally, I think the DH is an abomination to the game – akin to Velcro on shoes – but it is part of the game so it makes no sense to simply ignore the “position.” It may not be a “position” like first or third base, after all there is no need for the fella to even bring a glove to the ball park, but should that preclude him from being elected to the Hall of Fame? It might be comparing apples to oranges, but do you know how many at-bats Mariano Rivera has in his illustrious career? Try two. Should he be kept out of the HOF because he only helped his club in one facet of the game? Of course not, so maybe we should view the DH in the same vein?

2- Martinez could flat out rake.

The numbers are pretty darn impressive. Let’s go through a few of them.

* Martinez was named to seven All-Star teams.

* Martinez won five Silver Slugger awards, including one while playing third base (1992).

* Martinez owns a .312 career average, 91st best in history. He won the batting title in 1992 and 1995 and five other times he finished in the top-8.

* Not just the producer of hits, the man also knew how to work the count. Martinez led the AL in OBP three times (1995, 1998-99) and eight other times he finished in the top six. He retired with a .418 career mark, 22nd all-time.

* A fair slugger (.515 SLG), Martinez owns a .933 OPS in his career, good for 34th overall. Six times he finished in the top-5 and two other times in the top-8.

* Martinez also had 514 doubles (41st all-time), knocked in 1,261 runs (115th), hit 309 homers (112th), and produced 2,247 hits (154th).

Those numbers are clearly impressive, and they only grow in importance when you line them up against others. Consider the following.

* Martinez hit .3115 in his career. That’s less than two percentage points behind Manny Ramirez (.3132).

* Martinez hit 309 homers. Ivan Rodriguez, a fair home run bat in his own right, has only 305 homers in his career in roughly 1,800 more at-bats.

* Martinez knocked in more runs (1,261) than Bernie Williams (1,257), Albert Belle (1,239) and Matt Williams.

* Martinez owns a .418 career OBP which is 22nd — ever. Think about that for a minute. Done thinking? There are only two players who are currently active and have at least 3,000 plate appearances who can better that mark – Todd Helton (.427) and Albert Pujols (.427).

* And finally, that OPS of Martinez which sits at .933, is good enough for 34th in the annals of the game. If that number is adjusted for era and park, he drops a bit with an OPS+ of 147, though it still ties him for 39th – ever.

The bottom line? If you value hitting, few did it better than this man. Considering that the final couple of years of his career that he resembled Bengie Molina in his ability to move around the bases, it’s pretty amazing that he was able to produce the numbers that he did (not to mention that the Mariners stupidly held him back from full-time work until he was 27 years of age). If he even possessed average speed throughout his career he may have hit .320 with an OPS over .950, and only 10 men who ever played the game reached both of those numbers.

It pains me to say it – I simply detest the DH – but I think Martinez should be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. He was the best DH when he played, and even if I abhor the entire concept, it’s not like we can ignore its existence. Symbolically I wouldn’t vote for him on the first ballot, but sooner or later, I would pull the trigger.

To read my thoughts on others in my HOF series simply click on the following links:

Who Am I?

HOF: Tim Raines

Is McGriff Hall Worthy?

The Case of Andre Dawson

HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood?

By Ray Flowers