Turn Back the Clock: Catchers

To be truthful, and everyone knows I’m nothing if not honest, I went to the bathroom today and grabbed the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide for a quick read. As I perused the magazine I started looking at my top-10 selections at each position and thought – I bet their would be some value to reviewing how accurate my predictions were last season. With that, I thought I would plow through each position on the diamond over the next while doing just that. Today, I’ll start with the catchers, and look for the other reviews soon as I move through each position.

* Note: These projections were rendered in January of 2009, so keep that in mind if some of them seem a bit off in retrospect.

1. Joe Mauer
2. Brian McCann
3. Russell Martin
4. Geovany Soto
5. Victor Martinez
6. Bengie Molina
7. Ryan Doumit
8. Kelly Shoppach
9. Chris Iannetta
10. Mike Napoli

Now you know why I suggest skipping on taking catchers early in a draft.

Of that group, I was dead on with the top-2, of course that wasn’t too hard to predict. After that, it got spotty in a hurry.

Martin really wasn’t as bad as he appeared to be even though he had full season lows in homers (seven), RBI (53), runs (63) and average (.250). Honestly he wasn’t, he was just really unlucky. I’m looking for a nice rebound effort in 2010 – he should come cheaper than he should.

Soto was a total flop, due to injury and the fact that he simply wasn’t as good as he appeared to be in 2008. Simple really.

V-Mart was a remarkable comeback story after an abysmal 2008 effort (.278-2-35 in 266 ABs). All he did was rebound to his established levels hitting .303-23-108, but it was still a wonderful season thanks to full health.

Molina continues to do his thing, and do it well despite being the slowest man on Earth. He was basically the Giants second best hitter behind Pablo Sandoval as he hit a career best 20 homers while knocking in at least 80-runs for the third time in three years in a Giants uniform.

Doumit was injured and never really able to get going last season. He isn’t the .318-15-69 hitter he was in ’08, but he also isn’t the bum that hit only .250-10-38 last year.

Shoppach was supposed to flourish behind the dish when the Tribe eventually traded V-Mart. Well they traded Martinez all right, but Shoppach wasn’t able to take advantage of anything as he fell to 12 homers and 40 RBI a year after hitting 21 long balls with 55 ribbies. He did lose 81 at-bats in 2009, and that certainly didn’t help. Neither did his .214 average.

Iannetta hit only .228, this after hitting .264 in 2008, and he also lost two homers and 13 RBI from his 2008 effort (18 HR, 65 RBI). Chris was given 44 fewer at-bats thanks to a late season surge at the dish by Yorvit Torrealba so the power numbers would have likely been right there if he had been given the same opportunity.

Napoli wasn’t at his best either. First off, Jeff Mathis continued to eat into his playing time. Secondly, was limited a but by injury, though he still was able to post 155 more at-bats than in 2008. As a result there was little difference in his homers (20 and 20) or RBI (49 and 56), but obviously the rate at which he produced them dipped a ton.

So there is my list at the catcher position. I know it doesn’t look great in retrospect, but then again, I always preface my rankings at this position saying that there is no accounting for the injuries and wear and tear on the body for the men who pull on the tools of ignorance.

By Ray Flowers

Vegas Baby!

Trent: They’re gonna give daddy the Rainman suite, you dig that?
Mike: Do you think we’ll get there by midnight?
Trent: Baby, we’re going to be up five hundy by midnight!
Mike: Yeeeeaaaaahhhhhh!
Trent: Vegas baby! Vegas!
Mike: Vegas!

– Swingers (1996)

Great flick if you haven’t seen it by the way.

No, you haven’t stumbled into some drunken rant by yours truly, you merely have the pleasure of seeing just how excited I am to be traveling to Vegas this weekend. I’m not going to confirm or deny the rumors of gambling, carousing with the ladies and general debauchery that continue to follow me around, but let’s just say that some good times have been had in Vegas in the past. I will fully admit that the upcoming weekend will involve some merriment, but I’m not merely going to Vegas to have some stories to share with my friends, I’m actually off to do some business as I will be helping Greg Ambrosius and Charlie Wiegert run the National Fantasy Football Championship.

What is the NFFC? It is the premier, big ticket fantasy football event in the country with the grand prize winner being guaranteed a check for $100,000. The event is held, live, in Vegas, Chicago and New York simultaneously, and if you are unable to attend any of those live shindigs you can always participate via the online leagues that are available for the event. To learn more about everything NFFC click on the link to Fantasy Football Championship.

As a side note, for those of you wondering what I look like away from the computer, you can also go to the baseball site for the Fantasy Baseball Championship and look for me to appear amongst the pictures on the home page (I’m wearing an Angels’ jersey along side our head honcho, Ryan Houston). Oh yeah, we are now unable to participate in either event moving forward, after all “we” purchased the company, so all of you out there won’t have to worry about having to defeat the best fantasy team that Fanball has to offer (that’s right, Mr. Houston and myself have a pretty fair track record going).

For those of you that will be in Vegas, don’t forget to come up and say hello. I’d love to hear from you my loyal fans, and no, I didn’t just call you “The Loyal” like Criss Angel calls his followers. I will tell you that I love that guy’s magic/illusionist act which you can see on A&E or live if you visit the Luxor in Vegas. Hey, maybe I can get in to see him on Saturday night? That has to be one wild show with Cirque Du Soleil. Could do without all the makeup and dark nail polish though.

Anyway, I’m off to Vegas, so I may not be posting for a few days. Hey, you don’t expect me to turn down a chance to have some good old fashioned fun to write about sports do you? Your right, I’ll probably be typing up a report pretty soon because my chances of going “crazy” in Vegas are about as good as Bengie Molina winning the NL MVP.

By Ray Flowers

All Over the Place

Today was a long flipping day for this kid. As a result, my thoughts are a bit scattered as I write this (perhaps having something to do with the secondhand smoke I inhaled at a Nickelback concert last night – and yes, it wasn’t all cigarette smoke). Still, I hope this entry makes sense. If it doesn’t, perhaps I’ll go “bake” something else tonight. Oh stop it, you know I’m kidding.

Ryan Hanigan is hitting .272 this season, just one point below the .273 mark he has posted in his career. The man has all of two home runs in 224 at-bats this year, a terrible total, but it’s his shockingly pathetic mark of nine RBI this season that is so dreadful. Moreover Hanigan, who owns a superlative 1.29 BB/K mark, saw his average plummet before he ended up on the DL with a concussion (he should return next week). Hanigan was hitting .338 on July 17th only to finish the month on a 4-for-23 spell (.174) which then led into a .143 mark in August. Ugly.

Brandon Phillips isn’t a doctor, and apparently he didn’t pay much attention in school either. I have no ax to grind here, just being honest. Read his owns words. “My wrist is not broken. I didn’t mean to say broken,” Phillips said. I know I didn’t say ‘broken.’ I said ‘fracture.’ I didn’t know ‘fracture’ and ‘broken’ meant the same thing.” Really Brandon? I didn’t know that a homer was the same thing as home run either. Regardless, Phillips’ wrist injury has been part of the reason that he has gone deep only four times in his last 42 games. Still, he is on the verge of yet another 20/20 season with 18 homers and 22 steals on the year.

Speaking of moronic statements, no list would be complete without a reference to Chad Ochocinco who dropped this one on us the other day. “I’m going to carry the whole city just like Kobe (Bryant) carried the (Los Angeles) Lakers and LeBron (James) carried Cleveland. I’ve always wanted to be that guy. Now it’s time for me to do it…” Uh huh Chad. Anyone besides me think that maybe, just maybe, Chad doesn’t belong as the third leg of that triangle that is made up of Kobe and LeBron?

Ted Lilly has looked terrific since returning from surgery allowing just four runs in 27.2 innings to lower his ERA down to 3.17. He may have only 10 victories but with a 1.08 WHIP he has been a fantastic fantasy option.

The Giants bit the bullet and called up Buster Posey since Bengie Molina just can’t get over the hump with his quadriceps injury. The original plan was for the youngster not appear with the big league club this season, and in fact, there was some thought being given to Posey not even being with the Giants next year until after the All-Star break. Those plans were dashed when the Giants astutely realized that they need offense where they can find it, even if it comes from the youngster. Posey doesn’t figure to play more than a couple of times a week at best, Molina should return “soon,” so even in NL-only leagues Posey doesn’t merit much attention at this point. Still, Posey has hit .325 with 18 homers, 80 RBI and a .947 OPS in 422 minor league at-bats this season, so the kid can certainly mash.

You ever get the feeling that no matter what you do, you just don’t have a shot to win? I know that’s how I feel. On one club I have Alex Rios hitting .167 since he joined the White Sox 16 games ago, and my utility hitter, Jim Thome, is now nothing more than a pinch hitter with his trade to the Dodgers. Now comes word that the rock of the left side of my infield, Michael Young, will miss at least a couple of weeks with a strained hammy. He has often beaten estimates as they pertain to his return from injury in the past, but I wonder if it will matter for my squad. I do know this. Young will have to return and produce 15 hits for a seventh straight 185 hit season, and he could fall short of his career best total of 24 home runs as well (he has 22).

Miguel Tejada was hitting .362 on June 2nd making his current .298 batting average simply shocking. Tejada hit .298 in June and .307 in July so that is still perfectly fine, but his .212 mark in August has clearly dashed any hope he had of posting a career best in the batting average category (he hit .330 in ’06 and has a .288 career mark).

By Ray Flowers

Walking the Line

Want to learn how to ingratiate yourself to your fan base? If you do, then I suggest you follow the lead of the Cubs’ Milton Bradley who, amazingly, offered this little diddy to the press. “All I’m saying is I just pray the game is nine innings, so I can be out there the least amount of time as possible and go home,” he said. Apparently, he isn’t feeling the love from the Cubs faithful. “I’m talking about when I go to eat at a restaurant, I have to listen to the waiters bad-mouthing me at another table, sitting in a restaurant…” Well Milton, try keeping your mouth shut and hit better than .255 while you are making $10 million a year and people might cut you a break. Memo to Cubs’ fans – don’t boo Bradley, boo your idiotic front office that gave him $30 million.

Carlos Gonzalez returned from his losing battle with a steak knife to play on Thursday. Unfortunately he then went out and suffered a bruised thumb in the game and is now being called day-to-day like the rest of us. Honestly, I injured my left pinkie while typing this piece so I’m hour-to-hour.

Adam Jones continues to be sidelined with a back injury. He is supposed to return by the weekend, though with his recent struggles (.222 in his last 21 games) the team should give him all the time he needs to make sure he is healthy.

Jake Peavy will make another minor league start for Triple-A Charlotte on Saturday. If his ankle, and elbow, are fine after that appearance, he will likely be activated with his next start being for the Pale Sox next week.

Mike Sheets offered his take on his top-10 catchers for 2010 in his most recent posting. I can’t disagree with his top-3, those guys are money, but his list got me to thinking about just how thin the catchers’ pool has gotten of late. Just look at the names that Sheets listed 4-10.

Mike Napoli – A 30 percent strikeout rate is awful, limiting his AVG upside (his current .289 mark is a mirage).

Jorge Posada – Thirty-eight years old, he is hitting .277 with 17 homers but he has been limited to just 478 ABs the past two years.

Ryan Doumit – Hitting .225 this season, Doumit does have 23 homer sand 95 RBI his last 613 ABs while his average in that time is .290. If he could just stay healthy.

Bengie Molina – Figures to stay in SF and hold off Buster Posey for at least one more year and he has hit at least 15 homers with 57 RBI in each of the past five seasons.

Geovany Soto – Continues to worsen, if that is possible. After hitting .278 in May that number has slide each of the past three months: .257, .222 and .150.

Russell Martin – Is hitting just .257 with four home runs after hitting at least .280 with 10 in each of his first three seasons.

Matt Wieters – Jesus, I mean Wieters, is hitting .263 with a .677 OPS in his first 224 ABs. The upside is undeniable, but at the same time Wieters has been out-produced this season by Omir Santos who has hit .264-6-32 with a .693 OPS in 235 ABs. Ruminate on that for a while.

If you miss out on the top-3 you might as well wait a long while before taking the plunge as there will likely be a whole lot of mediocrity out there.

Michael Vick returns to NFL action later tonight. Count me as someone who could care less. I don’t wish people ill, but at the same time I wouldn’t be at all disappointed if Vick were to struggle monumentally for the rest of his career.

By Ray Flowers

Abreu and Wieters

I have a weekly mailbag colum in which I answer a bunch of emails each week, but today I thought I would address two emails that came my way because I think the analysis of the two questions is pertinent.

At the beginning of the year I was loving Bobby Abreu but he has been struggling lately. Which Abreu should I expect to see for the rest of the year?
– Ryan, Ukiah

A good one. Here are the facts.

(1) Abreu is hitting .303 overall but just .204 over his last 54 at-bats. Has he struggled here of late? Absolutely. But overall his 303 mark is nearly identical to his career .300 mark. In addition, his BABIP of .344 is right along his career lines as he owns a .352 mark in that category. Nothing to worry about here.

(2) Abreu has gone 173 plate appearances without a home run, a shocking run of ineffectiveness for a player who has hit at least 15 home runs in each of the last 11 years. His power has declined the past few years, but this level of failure makes no sense at all. It should, let me repeat should, even out moving forward. However, it is concerning that his FB-rate has dipped to 29.5% this season which would be a three year low, but still, it’s not that far off his 31.2% career mark. The real change in his work at the dish is the fact that his GB-rate is up to 52%, a career-high, while his LD-rate of 19% is an eight year low, far below his 23% career level.

(3) Despite the lack of pop, Abreu is walking at the same rate as always (15.2 percent BB-rate), while his K-rate has plummeted to 11.7%, an almost 50% reduction in his career rate (21.4%).

So what do we have? We have a man who has been putting the bat on ball more frequently than ever before, and one who is producing hits at the same rate as he always has despite a recent slump. Add in the fact that he is 15-for-15 in steals and you have to be positive about Abreu’s outlook moving forward. It’s not his fault that he has only 18 runs scored in 41 games with a .410 OBP, and with Vlad Guerrero now back in the lineup that rate could change shortly. Sooner or later the home runs will come, and when they do Abreu’s production will likely turn back to “normal.”

Is it worth dropping the slumping Bengie Molina to pick up Wieters for the anticipated June call-up?
– Tyler, Toronto

Molina has eight home runs with 30 RBI in 43 games for the Giants, but he has been awful of late hitting just .200 over his last 50 at-bats. The Giants depend on his bat so much in their run-deprived offense that one has to figure that he will play pretty much every day even when he struggles. Speaking of those issues at the dish, Molina’s approach was bound to catch up to him sooner or later. Molina has walked all of two times in 171 plate appearances this season leading to a miniscule 1.2% BB-rate. Combine that career worst rate with a 8-year high in his K-rate (12.7%), and it’s clear that a change in his approach are needed. Still, Molina has hit at least 15 home runs in each of the past four seasons, no other catcher has done that, and his total of 176 RBI the past two years are the second most amongst all backstops (Brian McCann had 179). The bottom line is that Bengie is a run producer.

As for Wieters, we are still awaiting his long anticipated debut – though late news is that he will likely make his first appearance on Friday. Wieters has hit .285 with five home runs and 26 RBI in 38 games at Triple-A this season, and he has knocked in nine runs the past 10 games during which time he is hitting .286. He has a Hall of Fame bat and his defense is solid, but the bottom line with Wieters is that he has struggled with some ineffectiveness and injury this season, and though his potential is off the charts, he doesn’t have a single at-bat in the majors to fall back on. Given those facts, combined with the top flight production that Molina has offered the past couple of seasons, I would recommend holding on to Molina for now if all you can do is a 1-for-1 swap. The upside with Wieters is massive, but at the same time sometimes slow and steady wins the race.

By Ray Flowers