Hote Stove: Not Everyone is Greedy

Relievers continue to get paid, Adrian Beltre is the last big bat on the free agent market, and a handful of mid-level offensive players have found their homes for the 2011 season.

Adrian Beltre: He wants something like $80 million dollars. He shouldn’t get it. However, he might, as the Angels have been unable to attract any of the options they were hoping to land (Cliff Lee, Carl Crawford, Josh Willingham etc.), while losing Hideki Matsui to the Athletics (Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). Will they capitulate to the demands of the incomparable super agent Scott Boras who has likely tried to convince them that Beltre is better than Mike Schmidt? The Angels would be wise to read The Curious Case of Adrian Beltre where I point out how Beltre had one other “special” season in his career which, by pure chance I’m sure, just so happened to come right as Beltre was heading into free agency.

Kevin Gregg: Will he and the Orioles ever get this thing figured out? The two sides have been linked for weeks now with an offer of $8-10 million over two years reportedly being floated his way. Why has Gregg balked at what seems like a reasonable deal? The recent contracts given to Scott Downs (3-years, $15 million), Matt Guerrier (3-years, $12 million), Jesse Crain (3-years, $12 million) and Bobby Jenks (2-years, $12) certainly aren’t helping the Orioles (for more on Jenks give Hot Stove: Signings Galore a read). “It’s fair to say that we’re still in discussions with a few teams and Baltimore is one of them,” said Danny Horwits, Kevin Gregg;’s agent. Say what you will about Gregg, but the fact remains that he is one of only seven relievers in baseball with at least 23 saves in each of the last four seasons. With middle relievers getting such huge deals, you can’t blame Gregg for holding out for more.

Orlando Hudson: Sorry David Eckstein, but with Padres pending addition of Jason Bartlett and today’s signing of O-Dog (2-years, $11.5 million), it might finally be the end of the road for you. I for one have no issue whatsoever in tipping my cap to you. The fact you were able to accomplish so much with so little is flat out amazing. As for Hudson, can we please, finally, put this guy to rest as a solid fantasy option? Every year he is over-drafted, but the simple fact of the matter is that he is nothing more than a replacement level fantasy option, if that. He does own a career .280 average, but he has averaged only eight steals the past eight seasons, hasn’t reached double-digits in homers since 2007, has never knocked in 70 runs, and only twice scored 80 runs. Great defender, great guy, and a wonderful role model, but in terms of his fantasy value he is middling at best, especially now that he will call Petco home.

Bill Hall: Let us all shed a tear for the end of the Jeff Keppinger / Tommy Manzella era in Houston. How could the club look to replace the best up the middle duo since Trammell and Whitaker? Obviously it’s because of the vast improvement they were able to make through the trade and free agent market (wink, wink). A month ago the club signed Clint Barmes to play shortstop, and I wrote about just how poor an idea that was in AL CY and Two Deals. Not content with that brilliant move, the Astros then went out and added Bill Hall off the free agent market on Friday signing him to a 1-year deal for around $3 million dollars to play second base. Hall has power, I won’t dispute that, but he has hit just .225 over the past three years while striking out 32 percent of the time. That’s ain’t good. I have little doubt that Barmes will go deep 15 times or that Hall could approach 25 homers playing everyday, but what are the Astros doing to their teams ability to score runs? As it stands today, if we assume the club will go with Carlos Lee at first base which seems like their current plan (sorry Brett Wallace), here is how their infield would shape up in terms of their 2010 OBPs.

C: Jason Castro (.286), Humberto Quintero (.262)
1B: Carlos Lee (.291)
2B: Bill Hall (.316)
3B: Chris Johnson (.337)
SS: Clint Barmes (.305)

To compare, the big league average in 2010 was .325. That’s right, only one of those players was even league average last year in his ability to get on base. Better get one of those disaster survival kits Astros’ fans, there could be some significant scoring droughts this season.

Xavier Nady: Signed to a 1-year deal for $1.75 million with the D’backs. Nady will likely be asked to play some first base and left field, and to add some pop to a team that has lost its two best power bats from 2010 (Adam LaRoche who is a free agent and Mark Reynolds who was dealt to the Orioles). Nady wasn’t at full strength last year after Tommy John surgery, so the Diamondbacks are willing to cut him some slack for his poor performance (.256-7-31 with a .660 OPS in 236 at-bats). Nady hit 25 homers while batting .305 as recently as 2008, but he has only one other 20 homer season on his resume. Still, this was a nice low cost addition by the D’backs, and he does makes a fine NL-only option.

And finally, the strange case of Kerry Wood…

As I referenced above relievers, even middle relievers, have been getting ginormous deals this offseason. So what is your reaction when you hear that Wood signed a 1-year deal for $1.5 million to play for the Cubs? My reaction was utter shock – I couldn’t have been more caught off guard if a Playboy Playmate had shown up on my doorstep wearing a Santa suit and holding a bottle of champagne (sorry, that’s always been a fantasy of mine). Come on, honestly, isn’t a hottie on my doorstep a more reasonable expectation than Wood signing for a mere $1.5 million? Apparently he really missed Chicago, so I give him credit for leaving millions to return to Chicago (apparently he really wanted to pitch for the Cubs and not the White Sox who reportedly offered a 1-year deal for $3.5 million). Wood will serve as the primary setup man for Carlos Marmol in Chicago, and if he pitches anything like the hurler who had a 0.69 ERA, 1.23 WHIP and 31 Ks in 26 innings with the Yankees this could turn out to be the best contract given by a club this offseason.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 13, 2010

A couple of players have decided where they will be plying their talents in 2011, while a few others seem to be nearing an end to the saga of where they will play in the coming campaign.

Scott Downs: The ace lefty reliever left the cold of Toronto for the warmth of Southern California when he signed a 3-year, $15 million deal with the Angels. Downs has been a wonderful reliever since the start of the 2007 season with some rather impressive numbers that Zack Greinke would be proud to call his own – 2.36 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and a 7.80 K/9 over 236.2 innings. Downs is also a dominating force against any left-handed batter with a career .223 batting average against portsiders. Simply put, he is one of the best lefty relievers in baseball.

Is this signing a prelude to the Angels also adding power-armed Rafael Soriano as many thought? The answer would appear to be no. It turns out the Angels are likely done spending on their bullpen and will instead go with a bullpen by committee in 2011. “If we need one or two guys at times to get the last out, we’re going to do it but I don’t think the committee’s going to be very large,” Angels’ manager Mike Scioscia said. Fernando Rodney would appear to be the leader in the clubhouse for the spot, though if the matchup dictates we could easily see Kevin Jepsen, Jordan Walden and Mr. Downs working the ninth inning.

Matt Garza: This impressive right-handed arm is apparently up for auction, and the Cubs are looking at picking up the impressive righty. Why Garza over another available righty, Zack Greinke? As Ken Rosenthal pointed out in Gauging the Value of Garza vs. Greinke, the reason the Cubs, or any team, would be more interested in Garza is the fact that he is in a more financially agreeable position with the end result being he will be paid, over the next three seasons, about what Greinke will make over the next two. Garza also has five playoff starts in his career – Greinke has none – and Matt has pitched very well when the pressure has been on (2-1, 3.48 ERA), and you know teams love to see success in the second season. Both pitchers are solid options who have pitched well the past three years. Here are the numbers for 2008-10.

M.Garza: 34-31, 3.86 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 7.10 K/9, 2.32/BB
Greinke: 39-32, 3.25 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 8.37 K/9, 3.74 K/BB

Either one would be a tremendous coup for whichever team acquires their services. From an on-field assessment Greinke would appear to be the better hurler, but in terms of the dinero it will take to sign their checks the next three years the more prudent course of action would be to pull the trigger on Garza.

Bill Hall: The Dodgers appear to be in the lead for his services with a report suggesting that they would even make him their starter in left field against right-handed pitching. For the Dodgers sake let’s hope that report was inaccurate. There might even be a bidding war on the horizon as the Astros too are interested in adding the versatile Hall. To think, all a guy has to do is hit worse than the league average (.247), never get on base (.316) and always strikeout (more than 30 percent of the time) to get paid millions of dollars to play professional baseball. These teams do realize that Hall has hit .225 with a .687 OPS over his last 1,082 at-bat don’t they? The versatility he brings is nice, and he does have some pop with 41 homers over those 1,082 ABs, but there is no way you can legitimately make the argument that he should be an every day player on a club that hopes to make the playoffs.

Brendan Ryan: No longer needed in St. Louis after the Cards brought in Ryan Theriot, Ryan was dealt to the Mariners for RHP Maikel Cleto. Ryan, widely regarded as a plus defender, Ryan hit a mere .223 with a sickly .573 OPS lasts season in more than 430 at-bats for the Cards (perhaps the wrist injury that required surgery was more of an issue than he let on). In a career of more than 400 games in the bigs, Ryan has hit .259 with a .658 OPS, though at least he has flashed some speed (39 steals). Can he hit enough to play everyday? The jury is still out. What we do know is that he will be given a chance to earn a starting job either at second or short for the Mariners. Here is what this move means for the Mariners.

(1) Chone Figgins will likely move back to third base this season. This is a great bonus since he will obviously qualify at second and third, as well as middle infield and corner infield, in fantasy leagues. He hit an awful .259 but he still stole 42 bases in 2010, so bump him up in your rankings a bit with this news.

(2) Dustin Ackley is going to have to impress in spring training to make the club. Despite a strong AFL effort that ended up with him taking home league MVP honors (he led the league in average at .424, OBP at .581 and SLG at .758), Ackley isn’t going to be handed a starting spot at second base, he is going to have to earn it. If Dustin doesn’t prove he belongs, Ryan will play second base.

(3) If Ackley proves capable of handling the rigors of second base and major league pitching, Ryan will then compete with Jack Wilson for the starting spot at shortstop. Wilson was no better than Ryan at the dish hitting .249 with a .598 OPS, and injuries limited him to 193 at-bats. He still plays decent defense, but why wouldn’t the Marinres go with the younger Ryan if everything else was equal?

As for Cleto, the 21 year old has hit 100 mph on the radar gun, but he had a terrible 6.16 ERA in Single-A ball last season and is one of those “projects” that teams simply take a flier on in case it comes together. “Cleto has a power arm,” GM John Mozeliak said. “He’s someone that could project as a back-of-the-bullpen talent with additional development and experience.”

In closing, for continued updates on the machinations of the world of baseball make sure you follow the BaseballGuys’ Twitter page.

By Ray Flowers

Three in One

Today I will discuss the signing of the biggest bat on the free agent mark, a minor deal for two spare parts, and a player re-upping with his squad after a fine all-around season in 2009.

Holliday Remains with Cardinals
How does he do it? Super agent Scott Boras got the Cardinals to bid against themselves, and the result was a 7-year, $120 million deal for Matt Holliday. The deal is for $17 million a year – slightly better than the $16.5 million Jason Bay’s deal with the Mets is for – and it includes a full no-trade clause. I hate Boras, but I tell you this; if I was a player he would certainly be my agent. I guess the Cardinals determined they could afford to dump more than $40 million a year on Holliday and Albert Pujols to strike fear into opponents from the center of their lineup (Pujols’ contract is coming up), but we’ll have to see if it hampers their ability to construct a team around their dynamic duo. One last note. If Holliday finishes in the top-10 in NL MVP voting in the 7th year of the deal an option for $17 million kicks in for an eighth season. Hopefully the fans in St. Louis can forgive him for trying to use his cup as a glove in the playoffs against the Dodgers. To spare Mr. Holliday I will not post a link to the failed catch, though it certainly isn’t hard to find online. For more on the Holliday signing click on the link to Holliday Signs with Cardinals.

Kotchman Traded for Hall
A deal that will reverberate for the next, oh, two days, was completed on Tuesday as the Mariners sent Bill Hall to the Red Sox in exchange for Casey Kotchman. Here is the upside of the deal which, surprisingly, has some extended ramifications.

1- Kotchman, a slick fielder, should make about $5 million in arbitration this year. His addition to the Mariners signals that slugger Russell Branyan won’t be returning to the Pacific Northwest. Kotchman hit .268 with seven homers and 48 RBI last season for the Braves and Red Sox in 385 at-bats. He is a doubles hitter who could push .300 if things broke right, but he doesn’t have the bat of your traditional first baseman.

2- Even with the move of Kotchman out of town, the Red Sox still don’t seem to have any plans for Mike Lowell. The Sox, who acquired Adrian Beltre earlier in the week, you can see me break down that signing in Beltre to Join Red Sox, will go with Beltre at third, Kevin Youkilis at first and David Ortiz at DH. Look for Lowell to be dealt at some point once spring training begins (you can keep up on the latest news at the Baseball Guy’s Twitter Page ).

3- As for Hall… some of us will fondly remember his massive 2006 season (.270-35-85-101-8), but since that time he has regressed, and substantially, the past couple of seasons. Last year he hit a mere .201 with eight homers in 334 at-bats for the Brewers and the Mariners, and that .596 OPS was simply ghastly. Hall is versatile, he can play second, third and the outfield, but he must be on the bench when there is a righty on the on the hill (.186/.261/.328 in 204 at-bats last season). He is a fine 25th man for a club like the Red Sox, just don’t expect him to become fantasy relevant with this move.

Gutierrez Signs 4-Year Deal with Mariners
Franklin Gutierrez parlayed a fine 2008 season into a 4-year, $20.5 million deal with the Mariners. You might be thinking to yourself something akin to ‘really, they gave that guy $20 mil? Where’s my glove?’ but the truth is that Gutierrez is better than you probably think. He finished near the top of many defensive metrics last season flashing great skill on defense, and though he hit a mere .283-18-70-85-16 last season, the totality of those numbers are actually very impressive. Here is a quote lifted directly from my Breaking Down: Franklin Gutierrez piece from October 27th, 2009. “In 2009, Franklin Gutierrez was one of only nine men who managed to hit at least .280 with 18 homers, 70 RBI, 85 runs and 15 steals, and one of just four full-time outfielders to pull off the trick.” Like I said, better than you thought right?

By Ray Flowers

The All-Star Fallacy

Major League baseball wants the fans involved, but they don’t. They want everyone to love them, but at the same time they don’t really care what we, the fans, think.

Did you happen to take a glance at the All-Star voting for the National League that was just released? I could go on and on about how stupid it is to allow the fans to select the starting lineups each year which almost always results in some undeserving player taking the roster spot of some deserving option, but I will do it quickly with three potential landmines thanks to the ballot box stuffing that is going on in Milwaukee

Rickie Weeks, out for the season, currently ranks second amongst all second baseman in votes.

J.J. Hardy, hitting all of .247 as of this writing is second in the voting at the shortstop position.

Bill Hall, making Hardy actually look like an All-Star with his .223 average, is also second at his position – third base.

The bottom line is that most fans are “homers” or flat out have no idea about anything related to performance on a ball field (not any of you reading this of course, I’m talking about those “other” fans). But I’ll save my consternation over that for another time.

The real issue currently facing MLB and its fan voting for the All-Star game is that Manny Ramirez, suspended 50 games for violating the league’s drug policy, is currently fourth amongst NL vote getters in the outfield putting him within striking distance of actually being voted to start the game. Manny will have served his suspension and officially be allowed to return to active duty with the Dodgers before the All-Star game, so how could major league baseball step in and stop Manny playing in the mid-summer’s classic if that’s what the fans want? Leave that to Mr. Doofus, aka Bud Selig, the commissioner of baseball, to step in a throw a monkey wrench in the plans.

“I’m going to think about that,” Selig said. “He doesn’t come back till July 3. Normally, I’m sensitive to the wishes of the fans. If the fans choose someone, I’d like to honor that. But we’ve been testing players for a long time, and it bothers me that someone would [cheat] at this stage in the game. I’ve got some time to think about this one.”

Or how about this one from Manny’s own manager, Joe Torre, who had this to say when asked if he felt Manny should be on the All-Star squad if he is voted in by the fans.

“No,” Torre said. “I think if you asked Manny, he’d give you the same answer…To me, I think the significance of the All-Star Game is to reward players who have a good first half.”

I’m no apologist for Manny, and in fact I blasted him when the whole scandal broke in my article entitled Shame On You, so I have to say that I agree with Joe Torre completely here – you should only be allowed to play in the game if your performance earns you that right, which is why I mentioned the word “fallacy” in the title of this piece and decried the stupidity that is rearing its ugly head in Milwaukee with their idiotic ballot box stuffing.

As for what Mr. Selig said, my response is more biting.

Mr. Selig, do you EVER make the right choice? I could list a myriad of instances to show you how profoundly asinine the majority of his decisions are, but I won’t bore you other than to comment on the current situation.

Mr. Selig you gave the fans the right to vote for whomever they want to see start the All-Star game. Therefore, you have to live with their choices no matter how profoundly ridiculous they are.

Are we living in a communist society with a dictator arbitrarily making up his own rules when he doesn’t like what he sees going on? I’m sure we would all like it if we were driving down the street one day, going 35 in a 35 zone, only to get pulled over by a police officer who, despite the fact that the law states it is a 35 mph zone feels that it’s too fast so he’s going to give you a ticket anyway. A stupid example perhaps, but it still illustrates the point – societies operate on an agreed upon set of rules, and in this case Mr. Selig is taking about amending those rules mid-stream.

I don’t know if any of you remember your political science class from high school, but back then we learned about a little thing in our legal system called “ex post facto law” which states that government may not change a law today to punish you for something you did yesterday. I know we aren’t talking about a legal system here with baseball, but the bottom line is that if there is nothing on the baseball books about removing a player from All-Star consideration because of a failed a drug test, and if there is no one has ever shown it to me, then Manny, no matter how much of a shame it would be, must be allowed to start the game if the fans vote him in. Last time I checked, despite all of its legal privileges, MLB was not outside the realm of the U.S. Constitution (see Article I, Section 9), so Manny must be allowed to play.

Do you think I missed my calling and that I should have gone into law school instead of sports? Me neither, though it’s fun playing a fancy pants, morally superior person every once in a while. You might want to try it yourself sometime. God knows Mr. Selig does it all the time.

By Ray Flowers

A Day of Change

Today’s article is marked by the call-up of a potential future star, a couple of oddly injured players currently in Arizona, the return from irrelevance for a backup Mets infielder and a hurler from Cleveland, as well as a look at two key players in the AL Central.

Mat Gamel is headed to Milwaukee, likely to take the roster spot of Brad Nelson who has been awful this season (0-for-21). Gamel, the teams up and coming start at the plate, was tearing it up at Triple-A hitting .336 with eight home runs and 31 RBI in just 33 games proving that he simply doesn’t need any more seasoning in the minors. The question now becomes, how much will he play? There certainly isn’t a good reason to have him waste away on the bench picking up spare at-bats here and there (he could DH for the club in their upcoming inter-league series). Still, dude has eight errors at third so far this year, and to be honest his name has never been associated with Brooks Robinson. Still, if you have been relying on Bill Hall, it may be nearing the time that you’ll want to be concerned.

Cliff Lee has turned around an abysmal start to the year with a 1.43 ERA over his last six starts during which time he is just 2-4 thanks to a lack of run support. He won’t ever match what he did last year again, but he is clearly over whatever issue was troubling him at the start of the season and appears to have righted the ship completely.

The Tigers owe Magglio Ordonez millions over the next couple of seasons, and word out of Chicago is that the team might actually consider outright releasing their star outfielder to avoid paying him the dough. Here is how it breaks down.

2010: A mutual option for $18 million that becomes guaranteed if he has 540 plate appearances or 135 starts this season.

2011: A mutual option for $15 million that becomes guaranteed if he has 1,080 plate appearances or 270 starts in 2009-10.

If the club lets him go now they would have to pay the remainder of his 2009 salary ($18 million), but would only owe him a buyout of $3 million to void the final two years of the deal “saving” them $30 million. Ordonez has been pretty awful this year hitting .241 with just two home runs and 12 RBI, but would the club really cut him loss after he averaged .326-24-115-90-2 the past three years? Fiscal responsibility – teams need to practice it or they will be left with no-win situations like this one.

Alexei Ramirez went 3-for-3 on Wednesday to push his fledgling average up to .223. In his 103 at-bat this season he has only one dinger and just seven runs scored, so if not for his six steals his value would be miniscule, not just awful. In 583 career at-bats Ramirez owns a .278 average with 22 home runs and 90 RBI, not to mention the 19 steals, but he also has walked just 24 times against 75 strikeouts. There is only one Alfonso Soriano, and as much as people want Ramirez to be the second one, it just isn’t likely to happen, especially considering that Ramirez is already 27 years old and that he still cannot control the strike zone very well.

Fernando Tatis is once again paying huge dividends for those who took a chance on him late in NL-only leagues. Tatis had three hits, including his second home run of the year, as he platted four RBIs for the Mets playing at first base in place of Carlos Delgado on Wednesday. Tatis is now batting .358 on the year and dating back to last season Tatis is hitting .307 with 13 home runs and 55 RBI in just 326 ABs. Considering that he had only 56 total at-bats in the 2004-06 seasons, its been a truly remarkable return from the dead for Fernando.

Joey Votto is out of the lineup on Wednesday after leaving the game on Tuesday due to dizziness that the club believes resulted from the flu combined with the warm, dry air of Arizona. Hey Joey, drink some Gatorade. Speaking of Arizona, we are still awaiting clarification on just what ails Conor Jackson as tests continue to be inconclusive in terms of defining just what his illness is.

By Ray Flowers