History is Happening

Usually I mention players in alphabetical order in my BaseballGuys.com article, but today I’m breaking that mold as I felt that the historic work of one Phillies hurler deserved to lead off the show.

Am I talking about Roy Halladay? Nope, but I did write about him yesterday in Is It Safe? Today I’m going to discuss the history making run that Cliff Lee has provided, and if you think I’m using hyperbole, which I have to admit I do fall into on occasion, your wrong. Lee threw 8.2 scoreless innings against the Reds Wednesday night, and with the victory in that outing he moved to 5-0 on the month. That’s not historic you say? You’d be right there. However, he also posted a 0.45 ERA for the month. I’ve got your attention now don’t I? When you combine that effort with his work in June (5-0 with a 0.21 ERA) – now we’re cooking you might be thinking. In fact, Lee’s two months of near perfection have enabled him to become just the third pitcher in the history of baseball to have two separate months in one season in which a pitcher has won at least five games (without a loss) while producing an ERA under 1.00. How amazing is that? Oh, in case you were wondering who the other two men were, here you go.

Bob Gibson (1968): 6-0 with a 0.50 ERA in June and July. Yeah, he went 12-0 with a 0.50 during that stretch. Talk about amazing.

Walter Johnson (1913): 5-0 with a 0.24 ERA (April) and 6-0 with a 0.81 ERA (July).

Now you see why I led off the piece with this news.

Since the All-Star Break Ryan Braun is hitting .357 with nine homers, 27 RBI, 35 runs and 12 steals in 42 games. Yeah, he’s good.

For those of you in NL-only leagues, Chris Heisey was activated from the DL today (he had been out with an oblique issue). I’m not sold that the Reds will play him every day, but with 12 homers, 38 RBI and 36 runs in 217 at-bats he is on a pace that would net him 28 homers, 88 RBI and 83 runs scored over 500 at-bats.

How unlucky has Felix Hernandez been this year? Last year he went 13-12, and this season he is currently 13-11 with the month of September to go. Still, in his 11 losses he permitted three or fewer earned runs six times. However, that likely wouldn’t faze Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum of the Giants who have been criminally supported by their offense. I hope you’re sitting down before you read this – it’s pretty amazing

Zero ER Allowed
MadBum 2-1 in 3 outings
M. Cain 4-0 in 5 outings
Lincecum 5-1 in 7 outings

How do you lose games when you don’t give up an earned run. Giants’ hitters should be especially proud of themselves.

One ER Allowed
MadBum 4-3 in 10 outings
M. Cain 3-1 in 6 outings
Lincecum 6-0 in 9 outings

Two ER Allowed
MadBum 2-1 in 4 outings
M. Cain 1-2 in 6 outings
Lincecum 0-2 in two outings

What are the trio’s records in those games in which they’ve allowed two or fewer earned runs? How about 27-11. What that means though is that if they allow more than two runs the trio is just 4-21 on the year.

Jesus Montero is finally up with the Yankees. A prodigious hitter with a luminous future, scouts predict that Montero will be a middle of the order bat for years to come. The 21 year old catcher likely won’t see much time behind the plate, his defense lags well behind his bat, but he should see a fair amount of work in the DH spot, at least against left-handed pitching. He’s a must start at this point in AL-only leagues, and if you are desperate from some offense at your second catcher spot in mixed leagues you can take a flier on Montero and probably not end up looking too stupid.

By Ray Flowers

The HOF and Ubaldo Jimenez

On Sunday Andre Dawson was officially inducted into the Hall of Fame. An eight time All-Star who is one of only three men in big league history to hit 400 homers while also stealing at least 300 bases (Barry Bonds and Willie Mays are the others), Dawson also has one of the worst OBP (.323) of any player in the Hall of Fame. In fact, it’s the worst mark of any outfielder enshrined at Cooperstown, .020 points below the .343 mark of Lou Brock. Should Dawson have been elected to the HOF? I tackled that very question in The Case of Andre Dawson. If that piece doesn’t cause you some pause about whether or not the athletic outfielder should have been enshrined, perhaps Dawson vs. Alomar will prove to you, once an for all, that not only does Roberto Alomar deserve to be in the Hall of Fame but that Dawson’s credentials might be a little thin.

I actually wrote up a series of piece on players who were eligible for induction into the Hall of Fame this year, and here are those links:

Edgar Martinez – Is there Room for a DH?
HOF: Tim Raines.
Is McGriff Hall Worthy?
HOF: Mammoth McGwire Misunderstood?
HOF: Who Am I?

Any here are my final thoughts where I discussed the 2010 voting results.

HOF: What Should Have Been.

Has anyone pointed you toward one of the best sites on the internet? No, I’m not talking about something that has porn in it, you certainly already have your favorites bookmarked for your adult entertainment, or BaseballGuys.com (since you’ve already found it), I’m referring to Rumorzone.com. It’s a collaborative effort from Fanball.com, and we’re tracking all the latest rumors in the world of sports for the four major sports at that location (MLB, NFL, NBA and NHL). Don’t forget to bookmark it.

Ubaldo Jimenez is awful. There, I said it, and don’t for a second try and tell me you weren’t thinking the same thing. On June 7th, a mere eight starts ago, Ubaldo had a 0.93 ERA. Heck, on June 18th it was still 1.15. However, the past six outings haven’t looked anything like his first 14 trips to the hill. Here are the numbers:

7.64 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 8.73 K/9, 5.18 BB/9, 1.68 K/BB

The ERA is horrific, the WHIP is terrible, and that walk rate is godawful leading to a decidedly sub par K/BB mark that is well below the big league average of 2.10.

So what happened? It’s called regression people, ever heard of it? Did you really drink so much of that Ubaldo Cool Aid that you actually thought he was going to challenge Bob Gibson’s NL ERA mark of 1.12? Come on now. Did you think he was gonna keep his ERA under 2.00 all year long? I got news for you, that’s only happened twice in baseball since the 21st century began (Pedro Martinez had a 1.74 mark in 2000 and Roger Clemens posted a 1.87 mark in 2005). Again, you kid right?

The truth is that Ubaldo is simply returning to the level of “dominance” instead of the “historic” pace that he flashed early on. He still has a 2.75 ERA, his WHIP is just 1.12, he has nearly a K per inning (120 in 134.1) and he is still 15-2. How rare is that combination? If he maintains that pace for 34 starts this season we’d be looking at something like 25 wins, 200 Ks and a 2.75 ERA. How many pitchers have reached all three of those levels since 2000? It’s a small group of — zero. If we go back to 1990 there still isn’t one member of the group. How about 1980? Still none. You have to go all the way back to to Ron Guidry in 1978 to find a pitcher who reach all three milestones (25-3, 1.74 ERA, 248 Ks).

The bottom line with Ubaldo is that you should cut the guy some slack. Still, I hope you listened when I suggested you sell high on the flamethrower from Colorado because that window for peak value in a trade has been closed completely.

By Ray Flowers

The Case of Tim Hudson

A competitor of the first degree, Tim Hudson has been greatly overlooked for the majority of his career. First he was somewhat hidden by the presence of Mark Mulder and Barry Zito in Oakland, and then he moved on to Atlanta where he toiled as a top shelf pitching option, though once again one who failed to generate as much attention as his production warranted. However, after a wonderful first half he was named to the 2010 NL All-Star team, a much deserved honor given his 2.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8-4 record through 17 starts. In the next couple of sections I’ll relate some of the historical success of Hudson before speaking directly to what I expect from him in the second half of the regular season.

A History Lesson

As a rookie Hudson went 11-2 with a 3.23 ERA for the A’s over 21 starts. He ended up fifth in the Rookie of the Year Voting.

In year two he won 20 games for the first and only time as he went 20-6 as he finished second in the AL Cy Young race despite the fact that he posted the second worst ERA of his career at 4.14.

In year III (2001), he made a career high 35 starts as he went 18-9 with a 3.37 ERA.

You get the picture. He’s been very good for a long time. In fact, here are some historical facts about Hudson that speak to just how good he has been.

* From 1999-2008 he won at least 11 games each season. Only he and Mike Mussina did that. Moreover, in each season of his career in which he has thrown 130-innings he has won at least 11 games.

* In his career he is 156-82, good for a .655 winning percentage. As a result, he is one of just 10 pitchers in big league history with a winning percentage over .650 and at least 150 victories in a career. Think about that. Only 10 men have ever done that.

* Hudson owns a 3.43 ERA in his career despite spending six of his 12 seasons in the AL. He owns a career 1.28 ERA+ meaning his ERA has been 28 percent better than league average (park and era adjusted). To place that number in context, that 128 mark is tied for 43rd all time with guys like Curt Schilling, Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver.

Yes, that means he has been historically good.

Breaking Down 2010

Hudson deserves to be on the All-Star team this season, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t concerns. Let’s just plow through them.

1- His ERA hasn’t been below 3.00 since 2003.

2- His WHIP hasn’t been 1.15 or lower since 2003.

3- His .221 batting average against would be a career low (.250 lifetime mark).

4- Despite all the success his 4.57 K/9 mark is a batter and a half below his career rate (6.04). It would also be a career worst mark.

5- His 3.23 BB/9 is above his career rate (2.79) and would be his second worst mark since 2000.

6- His line drive rate is laughably low at 10.6 percent. His career rate is 18.0 and it has been at least 16.5 percent each of the past eight years.

7- His BABIP mark is .234 which would be a career low (.286 lifetime mark).

8- His left on base percentage is sky high at 84.0 percent. It’s 74.0 percent for his career.

9- His GB/FB ratio is 3.15, a mark that would set a new career best.

Could Hudson have a second half to match the first? Stranger things certainly have happened. At the same time there is so much out of whack here that it would be wise not to lay a big portion of your paycheck on Hudson continuing to dominate as the season wears on. He should be fine and concerns about his Tommy John surgery obviously have vanished, but that doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be a good time to see if you can parlay his hot start into a big return on the trade market.

By Ray Flowers

For the Record Books

Ubaldo Jimenez finally had a hiccup last night, and whether it was because of the flu or just the regression gods coming to the fore, the bottom line is that for the first time this season he allowed more than three runs in a game (six earned runs in 5.2 innings) to cause his ERA to skyrocket from 1.15 to 1.60. Ubaldo deserves all the accolades he is receiving this year, but I thought I would bring up a comparison that I’m fairly certain no one has ever made anywhere, so consider yourself pretty special if you are reading this (I think of myself as “special” all the time, though I might be the only one who shares that sentiment other than my mommy). Let me compare Ubaldo’s work this season with a mystery pitcher to show you just how good Pitcher X has been.

Ubaldo: 1.60 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 7.99 K/9, 2.64 K/BB, .202 BAA in 107 IP
Pitcher X: 2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 11.25 K/9, 4.00 K/BB, .191 BAA in 112 IP

Who is this marvelous Pitcher X? It’s Luke Gregerson of the Padres. We are obviously talking about Gregerson’s totals since the start of the 2009 season, but isn’t it pretty amazing that he has been so dominating in his time in the Pads pen? Not to continue to belittle Ubaldo in any way by comparing him to hurlers who have actually been at least his equal, but here is Ubaldo in another comparison.

Ubaldo: 1.60 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 7.99 K/9, 2.64 K/BB, .202 BAA in 107 IP
Pitcher Y: 1.80 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, 8.82 K/9, 3.77 K/BB, .201 BAA in 100 IP

Pitcher Y is the Marlins’ Josh Johnson. In case you missed it, and many have with all the press floated to Ubaldo this year, Johnson has done something that only two other men in the history of the game in the modern ERA have accomplished – he has tossed 8-straight games of at least six innings pitched with one or zero earned run allowed. The others to accomplish the feat are J.R. Richard who did it eight times in 1979 and Bob Gibson did it 11 times in his magical 1968 season. Take that Ubaldo.

It has nothing to do with baseball, but did you get a load of that match at Wimbledon that finally ended with John Isner defeating Nicloas Mahut 70 games to 68 in the fifth set? The match took 11 hours and five minutes, and the fifth set alone broke the all-time record for the longest match ever played. I haven’t had that much fun watching or playing tennis since I used to play home run derby at my local court with my friends. I was quite the power hitter by the way pounding balls into the pool. I never understood why that the court wasn’t a foot longer since every groundstroke I put any pace on always seems to go eight inches long.

How good is Stephen Strasburg? I spoke to his dominance yesterday in Around the Horn, June 23rd, but here is something I didn’t mention in that video – his total of 41 Ks in his first four starts breaks the previous four start record to start a career of Herb Score who struck out 40 batters in his first four starts back in 1955.

I’m going to central park tonight where I live to listen to some live salsa music. Think I should bust out my dance moves. You’re right, I’ll probably just drink some Sangria instead.

Entering play on Thursday, do you know who was first at the catcher’s position in homers (12) and RBI (38)? If you guessed this one you spend way too much time staring at box scores (don’t worry, I doubt you do it more than I do which tells you all you need to know about my exciting life). No, it’s not Victor Martinez (9 HR, 37 RBI) or Brian McCann (8 HR, 30 RBI), and you certainly know its not Joe Mauer since he has only gone deep three times in 236 at-bats. Nope, the answer is none other than John Buck of the Blue Jays. Don’t forget to pick up your jaw off the floor.

By Ray Flowers

In the Presence of Greatness

The numbers are stupendous, astounding, mind boggling. Every five games this season Ubaldo Jimenez has taken the hill, and in his wake he’s left broken bats, dejected hitters an amazed fans. Here is the list of major categories that he leads baseball in right now.

Wins – 11
ERA – 0.93
WHIP – 0.93
BAA – .176
Fastball velocity – 96.7 mph

And that’s pretty much the whole kit and caboodle folks. Everything he is throwing up there right now is working – everything. Consider the following data points.

* He has made 12 starts and 10 times he has gone at least seven innings. The other two times he went six innings allowing a total of one earned run. That means he has tossed a quality start in every one of his 12 appearances.

* Jimenez has made 12 starts and 10 times he has walked three or fewer batters (eight times two or fewer). For a pitcher who has a career BB/9 mark of 3.90 that’s pretty darn good (his mark this season is 2.99).

The above factoids describe how good he has been this season, but if we place his performance in historical context we truly begin to understand the magnitude of what is going on here.

* Jimenez is the first pitcher in the history of baseball to have an ERA under 1.00 while at the same time emerging with the “W” 11 times in his first 12 starts. That’s ever folks.

* His 0.93 ERA after 12 starts is the lowest mark for a starter this deep into a season in 65 years. In fact, only two pitchers in baseball history emerged from their first 12 starts with an ERA lower than that – Dutch Leonard at 0.83 in 1914 and Al Benton at 0.89 in 1945. Walter Johnson matched the 0.93 mark in 1918.

* Jimenez has two stretches this season of at least 25-straight scoreless innings. He is the first pitcher to accomplish that since Jack Morris in 1986.

Could Jimenez truly have a shot at the first 30-win season since 1968 (Denny McLain) and a chance to establish the modern day ERA mark that is currently held by Bob Gibson (1.12 in 1968)? Not on your life. The average #1 starter makes about 34 starts with the five man rotation currently used. Back when McLain won 30 teams used four starters, and in his magical ’68 campaign he took the hill 41 times – a total he matched the next season as well when he won a mere 24 games. Simply put, Jimenez will not be given enough starts to reach that hallowed number. As for the ERA, I think this one is even easier to make a call on than the win mark, and as I just stated he has no shot whatsoever of reaching the win plateau. I could throw out all kinds of logic, not the least of which being that what Ubaldo is doing right now strains credulity or the fact that his career ERA mark is 3.38, but the truth is obvious. He has no shot at maintaining his current ERA. The real question is how far will he fall off as we move forward?

Clearly, Jimenez has mastered pitching at Coors Field (1.29 ERA, 1.04 WHIP), hardly surprising given his boring, sinking 97 mph heat. That stuff will play anywhere. However, it should be noted that eight of his 12 starts have come on the road, so it will be interesting to see how his numbers are affected once he starts toeing the rubber in Colorado more frequently though, surprisingly, he owns better ratios at home in (3.20 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP) than on the road (3.55 and 1.29).

Can he continue to hold hitters to a 12.6 percent line drive rate (career 17.5), with a BABIP that is .054 points below his career mark? Can he maintain his current LOB percentage of 92.4 percent which is nearly 20 percentage points better than his career rate (73.7 percent)? Can he keep the ball in the yard with such aplomb moving forward given that his current 2.9 percent HR/F rate is light years below his 7.5 percent career mark?

I wish Jimenez all the luck in the world, and it would be utterly amazing to see him keep up this level of performance over the course of the season. Alas, he has virtually no shot at maintaining the historic pace that he has set so far, but I gotta tell ya, I’ll be watching with an extreme level of interest as he gives it his best shot.

By Ray Flowers

Down the Stretch

Heading into the weekend of the regular season I thought I would take a quick look around the league and throw out there some interesting tidbits of knowledge, factoids if you will, that would be interesting to read. At least that is the plan.

Jeremy Bonderman was suspended for three games for intentionally throwing at the Twin’s Delmon Young. This is hardly a surprise given the current landscape of the game. However, what was surprising is that the Twins’Jose Mijares, the man who escalated the confrontation between the teams by throwing behind Adam Everett, was only fined. “I don’t know how the person who starts it doesn’t get some sort of penalty too,” Tigers’ GM Dave Dombrowski said. “I’ve expressed that to people in the commissioner’s office.” (1) This is totally ridiculous. If Bonderman is suspended, so must be Mijares. (2) Can you imagine how many times that Bob Gibson would have been sidelined by suspension if he had pitched today? Face it. The game is filled to the brim with wussy’s of all kinds. Yeah, that’s right, I said it. Sometimes guys get hit, that’s the game, and if some moron like Mijares does something inflammatory than the “baseball code” dictates a retaliation. Bonderman did that, and he did it properly by throwing his pitch off of Young’s knee and not at his noggin’. Hell, the Twins even understood what was going on. “Trust me, Delmon wasn’t at all upset with the Tigers,” Denard Span said Thursday. “He knew what was going to happen, and he was angry at our teammate.” So, what good does this suspension do? Exactly – it does nothing. Once again baseball screwed something up. What a shock.

Eric Byrnes and Chris Young both had four hits on Friday. Byrnes went deep twice and had five RBI while Young had four runs scored. Too bad it took six months for the D’backs to get a game like this from both of these guys. Too little too late guys, but still a nice outing for those that took a chance on having either one active. At least Young is hitting .287 with six homers over his last 26 games.

You know the Twins new ballpark, scheduled to be ready to go for the start of next season, is an outdoor stadium right? Yes, they are going with an outdoor stadium in Minnesota. I’m no weather man, but that cannot be a good thing can it? It certainly isn’t if you ask Mike Cameron. “Why in the world would they build an outdoor stadium? That will be the worst new park in the league. They’re going to get no players there.” Too bad the Twins didn’t consult Mr. Cameron because I can’t think there are many players who are going to disagree with that sentiment.

Adam Dunn says that he uses a 34.5 inch, 34 ounce bat most of the year, but inexplicably, when others are moving to lighter bats as their bodies grow weary, he goes to a heavier 35 ounce bat late in the year. “Don’t ask me why…It just feels better going up.” Dunn needs to hit two homers this weekend for 40, a total he has reached exactly in each of the past four seasons. Hopefully that bigger stick ‘o lumber will help.

Anyone out there realize that David Ortiz is, rather remarkably, just two homers and three RBIs away from a 30-100 season? If he is able to reach both marks this weekend it will mark the sixth time in six seasons with the Red Sox that he will be part of that club. For a guy who had one homer run and 18 RBI in his first 46 games, that’s more than a quarter of the season folks, that’s a pretty impressive effort

I was watching Jake Peavy’s start against the Tigers on Friday and I had a thought – how does anyone hit him, ever? When you can rush it up there 92-93 with that much movement on your fastball, I just don’t see how anyone squares it up. Add in 2-3 mph that he has when healthy, and count me as one of those people who is shocked when anyone hits a line drive off him.

By Ray Flowers

What is His Legacy?

I was recently asked by a friend what I thought of Pedro Martinez. Why did his career end so abruptly? Did I think he had a chance to be an effective pitcher this season if he signed with someone? And finally, what is his place amongst the greats of the game? Here are my thoughts on each matter.

(1) Why has his career basically ended so abruptly?
I actually don’t think it ended abruptly at all. Basically what has happened is that guys like Randy Johnson and John Smoltz have spoiled us into thinking that every top-flight pitcher can pitch effectively into their 40′s. The truth is, they cannot. Pedro might have “lost it” compared to the two guys we just mentioned, but he won 15 games with a 2.82 ERA as a 33 year old, and that certainly isn’t a bad effort at all. Pedro then started to suffer from shoulder issues, hardly a surprise for a guy who stands 5’11″ and weighs about 175 lbs and threw a 95 mph fastball for years. The fact of the matter is that his body just wore out, a rather normal occurrence for a man who has tossed nearly 2,800-innings in his big league career.

(2) Can he be effective this season?
I don’t see why he couldn’t be a better hurler than a ton of arms currently employed by major league clubs, even at age 37, as long as he is healthy. Certainly he won’t be able to recapture his past glory, but I don’t see why he couldn’t be an effective reliever, that is if his body could stand the transformation from throwing every five days as a starter. Pedro was always a “pitcher” who threw hard and not a hard thrower who tried to pitch. He might not be able to hit even 90 on the gun anymore, but I bet he could still pitch his way to some outs.

(3) What is his legacy?
This was the portion of the question that had me most intrigued. Let’s take a look at Pedro in a handful of categories and see how he stacks up against the all-time greats.

Wins and Loses
Pedro has 214 victories, tied for 86th all-time. Given that he has lost only 99 games, that leaves him with a superlative .684 winning percentage which just so happens to be the seventh best mark in baseball history. If remove pre-1900 hurlers he moves up to fourth on the all-time list. He may not have the volume of wins that others have, but it’s obvious that he was nearly as effective as any man who ever climbed the hill.

ERA
Pedro’s overall ERA of 2.91 is the 61st best mark in the history of baseball for a man who has tossed at least 2,000-innings. While that is impressive, it certainly doesn’t speak to just how dominating that Pedro was in his career. I touched on an idea called “normalization” in an earlier piece entitled Some People Never Learn. You can read more about the idea there, but the basic idea is this – raw numbers mean nothing until they are placed in context. When Pedro pitched there was a ton more offense in the game then when Cy Young was on the hill, so comparing their raw ERA’s to one another wouldn’t really tell you much of anything. The only way to know how effective a player is would be to compare him to his contemporaries who played the game under the same conditions that he did. To that end – Pedro has posted a 2.91 ERA in his career. When we adjust for his competition by comparing his ERA to the league average during his career (4.45), and adjust for the parks he pitched in, we come up with an ERA+ of 154. What this means is that Pedro was 54% better than a league average pitcher during his career which just so happens to be the best mark in baseball history amongst starting pitchers. Cy Young who had a raw ERA of 2.63 in his career comes in with an ERA+ mark of 138, good enough for 18th all-time.

WHIP
Since he began his career in 1992 Pedro is the only pitcher in baseball who has thrown at least 1,500-innings who allowed less than 10 base runners per nine innings at 9.90 (Greg Maddux is second at 10.08). Moreover, Pedro’s raw WHIP of 1.05 is the third best mark of any hurler, post-1900, who has thrown at least 1,250-innings in the history of the game.

Strikeouts
Pedro is tied with Bob Gibson for 13th all-time in strikeouts with 3,117 in his career (Smoltz is 101 behind). If we move to the ratio category of K/9, Pedro’s career mark of 10.08 is the second best in baseball history for hurlers who have tossed 1,500-innings trailing only the 10.62 mark of the Big Unit, Randy Johnson.

I don’t know if Pedro will come back this season, but I can tell you this without reservation – you may not know it, heck you may not want to admit it, but I think a plausible argument can be made that Pedro Martinez was one of the 10 greatest starting pitchers who ever lived, period. Care to disagree?

By Ray Flowers