Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Elvis Andrus vs. Jered Weaver: A tough matchup on paper given Weaver’s dominance and fly ball ways, Andrus has had no issue whatsoever getting on base against Jered as he’s posted 21 hits in 49 at-bats (.429).

Joe Mauer vs. Luke Hochevar: Mr. Mauer has one homer against Mr. Hochevar and six walks, but it’s the 11 hits in 23 at-bats (.478) that grab ones attention. Oh yeah, that .586 OBP ain’t too bad either.

Rickie Weeks vs. Homer Bailey: Hitting .197 on the year and .182 the past week, Weeks just can’t get anything going. You’ll know it’s a lost season of he doesn’t get a couple of knocks in this matchup given that he’s hit .524 with two homers and seven RBIs against Bailey in 21 at-bats.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Trevor Cahill vs. Astros: Call this one a hunch. Cahill hasn’t pitched well at home with a 3-4 record, 4.78 Era and 1.45 WHIP. He’s also never faced the Astros, and he’s lost three of his last four starts this season. So why suggest starting him? After the Astros made that huge move to add seven players I’d figure the clubhouse is in a bit of shock.

Kevin Correia vs. Marlins: The last time he faced the Fish it was a disaster as he allowed six runs in 3.2 innings back on May 15th, but he has won his last four decisions. He’s also had a lot of success this year at home with a 3.50 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in seven starts though you shouldn’t be expecting many punchouts (he has just 17 in 43.2 innings at home).

Luke Hochevar vs. Twins: His career numbers against the club from Minnesota stink (4-4, 5.14 ERA, 1.43 WHIP), but he’s been pitching pretty well of late. He’s 3-1 in his last four decisions, isn’t beating himself (12 walks in seven games), and he’s lowered his ERA from 6.63 to 5.16 over his last seven trips to the bump.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Bobby Abreu vs. Miguel Bautista: This matchup goes back years and Abreu has come out the victor an awful lot with a .387 batting average and 1.072 OPS in 31 at-bats (he has gone deep once with nine RBIs as well).

Matt Diaz vs. Jon Lannan: The Nationals lefty will get his chance to shin in a return to the big leagues, but he’s going to want to make sure he avoids Diaz if possible as the Braves outfielder has hit .424 with a 1.032 OPS against John in 33 at-bats.

Ian Kinsler vs. Ervin Santana: Kinsler only has one homer and five RBIs in the matchup but he also has 18 hits in 47 at-bats, good for a .383 average and 1.038 OPS. Michael Young also bears watching as he’s hit .351 with 13 RBIs in 74 ABs against Santana. Oddly Young has 16 Ks in 74 at-bats.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Bronson Arroyo vs. Brewers: Talk about some success. Arroyo has held the Brew Crew to a .213/.274/.360 line in 272 at-bats. Remove the four homers of Ryan Braun and the other Brewers have taken the homer prone hurler deep just five times in 229 at-bats.

Scott Diamond vs. Royals: Diamond is sporting an 8-3 record with a 2.96 ERA on the year, but he’s coming off a poor start that saw him allow five runs and nine hits in six innings. Still he’s been successful this year and current Royals batters are hitting .207 off Diamond with a .499 OPS in 29 at-bats.

Edwin Jackson vs. Braves: This is a risky call. On the one hand Jackson has been bombed over his last three starts allowing 16 runs over his last 13.2 innings. On the other hand he’s had a lot of success against current Braves batters holding them to a .206 average, .559 OPS and no homers in 68 at-bats.

CONTESTS

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By Ray Flowers  

Daily Joust – Wk 9: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Darwin Barney (+5, $92K in DailyJoust salary)
Barney is boring. There, I said it. Still, he’s had four games in his last nine outings with at least two hits as he’s boosted his average from .259 to .275. Because he’s been getting on base a lot, he’s also scored six times in his last six games. Barney is no great shakes but he’s hit .276 over his last 707 at-bats even though he has no power (five homers) and averge speed (12 steals). More of an injury fill-in than anything else.

Mark Trumbo (+7, $120K)
It all looks amazing right now. Trumbo is hitting .331 while being on pace for 30 homers. Wanna bet he doesn’t get there? Trumbo has blown away even the most optimistic of expectations, but there are still a few things here worth noting. His 1.16 GB/FB ratio is average. His 21 percent K-rate isn’t great. His 0.34 BB/K mark isn’t worth anything. His .378 BABIP is not a sustainable pace, not with an 18 percent line drive rate. It’s just not. I’ve said/written it many times before, but the guy just isn’t a .300 hitter, even with his impressive 46 game run to start the year (the people at Fleaflicker aren’t buying it either).

Justin Smoak (+8, $118K)
Finally. After being a near automatic out for a couple of years, Smoak has finally started to hit like the guy who was drafted 11th overall in 2008. In his last nine games Smoak has peppered the seats with five balls, driven in 14 runs and scored nine times on his way to raising his OPS from .568 to .703. Before we get too far ahead of ourselves we should still note that his slash line is terrible (.283/.293/.409), as is his BB/K mark (0.33), and he continues to be completely ineffective against lefties (.214 with one homer in 56 at-bats). I’m heartened by his recent work, but he’s still got a long way to go to prove he should be in the active lineup without question the rest of the way.

Jason Vargas (+41, $277K)
Through 12 starts he has a 3.45 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, pretty heady work for a fella who owns a 4.40 ERA and 1.32 WHIP for his career. Can he sustain his performance? His K/9 mark is bad (5.74) but same as always (5.72). His 2.50 K/BB ratio isn’t awful, but it’s still just a bit above the league rate (2.34). His 0.94 GB/FB rate is slightly better than the 0.74 mark he owns for his career but still well below the league average (1.10 or so). His BABIP of .223 isn’t likely to be a sustainable pace either, not for a guy with a career .276 mark who has never finished a year under .272. This is as good as it gets with Vargas and he’s likely to slip up moving forward.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Bobby Abreu (-11, $63K)
Abreu started off his Dodgers career on fire. Predictably, things have slowed since. Oh he’s still hitting .310 with a .437 OBP in 26 games with the Dodgers, simply fantastic production from the aging vet, but he has a mere seven hits in his last 10 games during which time he has scored a mere three runs. There’s still room to go down here making Abreu nothing more than an NL-only option.

Christian Friedrich (-20, $188K)
Three wins in five starts is fine, but after dominating the Padres and Giants in his first two starts it’s gotten ugly. Over his last three outings Christian has allowed 16 runs over 16 innings. My analytical mind tells me that he’s posted an ERA of 9.00 in that time (how impressed are you – I didn’t even need my calculator). The 15 Ks in those three starts give him an impressive 32 in 29 innings, but they come at such a high price that it isn’t anywhere near worth it right now.

Alex Gordon (-21, $55K)
Hitting a mere .244, that is the highest his average has been since May 16th, Gordon has a hit in 7-straight games an in each of the last four games he has produced a double. He still has only one steal on the year, and his total of four homers is boring as all get out, but at least he has picked up the pace of late. Hitting just .219 with a .686 OPS in the leadoff spot this season (73 at-bats), Gordon really seems to like it when he is batting second in the order (.343/.425/.557 in 70 at-bats).

Jarrod Parker (-27, $181K)
Through seven starts Parker has a 2.88 ERA and 1.35 WHIP for the Athletics. Remove his awful outing against the Giants and he’s gone six starts without allowing more than two earned runs. He has been difficult as all hell to hit with a .228 BAA, but the walks are a big time concern. In four of his last five outings he’s issued at least four free passes, and sooner or later those catch up with you (his 29:21 K/BB mark is awful – 1.38). He’s a 2-start pitcher this week but matches with the Rangers and D’backs would seem to suggest that he’s not exactly someone you should roll out there without worrying about.

Michael Saunders (-8, $68K)
Yes he’s hitting only .257, and suiting up for the Mariners doesn’t exactly make you someone that anyone is rushing out to add, but have you noticed that he’s on pace to go 15/25 this year? He’s got to cut down the K’s though, he has 52 in 183 at-bats, or that .257 average of his might dip even further, especially considering that his BABIP of .331 is .062 points above his career mark. An effective, under the radar option that has holes in his game.

DAILY CONTEST

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By Ray Flowers

Freaky Friday

It’s Friday and half of you have probably already mentally checked out of work as you’re salivating over the thought of the 2012 fantasy baseball season getting started. How can BBGuys help you to dominating your fantasy league in the coming season? By this point you know I’ve done my best to prep you for your baseball draft with the 2012 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide. I’ve also spent the past couple of months doing in depth player profiles on a whole heaping group of players that might be players you are concerned/interested in over in the Player Profiles category. I’ve also reviewed a handful of the drafts that I have done the past couple of months, to give you an understanding of how drafts were unfolding, in the Fantasy University section.

What can you expect now that the season is about ready to get underway? More of the same excellence that you’ve come to expect (I’m so modest). Oh the drafts will obviously disappear, but I’ll still plow through the morass of information out there an do my best to distill it down to some usable information for you all. Please, an I fight this all the time, tell a friend. I know people want to keep me as their “secret weapon” holding me more closely to their vest than a sex video with their ex-whatever, but I ask that you loosen the reigns a bit. As you are well aware the only charge you will ever incur at BBGuys is for a draft guide. That’s it. The articles, day after day, are free. My advice, both in the Comments section of the website an at the BaseballGuys Twitter account are also free (Twitter is the best place to ask me a question by the way). All I ask in exchange is that you tell a friend. So be a bro and share will ya?

Before I get to some actual content today, I have to tell you why I love America. Did you know that toady is National Cleavage Day? No, I’m not making it up (I didn’t get the information from the local locker room, it’s actually a legit day of celebration). I constantly bemoan the fact that we have all these invented holidays seemingly every day of the calendar, but I will stand up and applaud whomever came up with today’s celebration. So ends the female worship – for this post at least.

Mat Latos (calf) is expected to make his scheduled start on Sunday, that is unless he comes down with some kind of setback during his bullpen session on Friday. He remains a solid option to count on even early in the season.

As expected, Mike Trout was sent to the minors today. As a young fella, he needs to play every day, something that just wasn’t going to happen with the Angels as they have a full outfield of Vernon Wells, Peter Bourjos and Torii Hunter. The news that Bobby Abreu could potentially be on his way to the Indians last night – a deal that has reportedly fallen apart – caused some to be hopeful that Trout would open the year with the big league club. It was never going to happen. Kendrys Morales continues to look great in camp, and with that the hope is that he will be able to DH almost every single game. Given that fact, there just isn’t a spot for Trout right now. His time is coming, and he’s going to be great, but as I wrote months ago, he’s a risk in re-draft leagues this year (listen to some audio from the Arizona Fall League when I was able to interview him).

The Braves signed Livan Hernandez mere hours after the Astros released him. Why did they bother adding the aging, innings eater? Beats me. I mean they get a guy who they can count on to take the ball every five games. He has thrown 175 or more innings each years since 1998, and he’s won at least 10 games every year but one since 2000, but come on now. He’s also posted an ERA of 4.47 or higher in five of the past six years, and his WHIP has been under 1.40 in just once in the last seven seasons. The Braves must really, an I mean really, be disappointed with the work they’ve received from Julio Teheran and Randall Delgado this spring. It looks like Livan will work out of the pen, but whichever guy wins the 5th spot clearly will not have a long leash.

By Ray Flowers

On the Cusp

You remember back in April when Kay Adams bet me that Willie Bloomquist would steal at least 26 bases this season, one more than his career best? Willie ain’t gonna make it. What a shock. Bloomquist has 19 steals on the year, only 12 after the month of April, and for the first time ever he has been caught more than six times with 10 CS. @heykayadams on Twitter better get ready to sing that Neil Diamond song and to make that video she promised she would if she lost.

Melky Cabrera has 18 homers and 20 steals. So the team will push him hard the final couple of days to give him a shot at 20/20, right? Wrong. The Royals have already said that as soon as he gets to 200 hits that they will shut him down to give others some playing time. Cabrera has 199 hits making his dream of 20/20 likely nothing more than a pipe dream. Don’t worry Royals’ fans. Jeff Francoeur pulled off the 20/20 trick with 20 homers and 22 steals. That outing was shocking given that the last time he hit 20 homers was 2006, and that he had never swiped more than eight bases in a season. Since I mentioned both of those Royals outfielders, why not mention the third as well. Alex Gordon had the breakout season that was long predicted of him as he hit .303 with 23 homers, 87 RBI, 101 runs and 17 steals. How good was that trio of outfielders? Their average 5×5 line was .297-20-87-91-20. How amazing is that?

Albert Pujols is trying to extend his major league record run of .300-30-100 to 11-straight seasons. He’s already at 37 homers, but after going 0-for-7 the past two days his average has dipped to an even .300. He’ll need to keep the hits coming while knocking in two runs to extend his streak (he has 98 RBI on the year). He’s also scored at least 100 runs in 10 of 11 seasons. The one time he missed was 2007 when he scored 99 times.

Ben Zobrist has had an uneven season no doubt, but in the end he has been highly productive. The question now is will he get to some significant statistical milestones this year. He has 19 homers, 89 RBI, 97 runs and 20 steals. A big final couple of days could give him a 20-90-100-20 season. Since 2000, there have only been three players in the AL East who have reached all four of those totals in one season: Alex Rodriguez did it three times, Alfonso Soriano twice, and Bobby Abreu once.

Last week in Exclusive Clubs, I listed a whole bunch of players with unique power/speed combos. With three days left in the season, there have been some changes.

Jacoby Ellsbury went deep three times the last two days for the Red Sox and he now has 31 homers and 38 steals. What a bounce back season.

Matt Kemp has 37 homers and 40 steals. He could, could, sneak into the 40/40 club.

Ian Kinsler went deep twice in the last four games and he also swiped four bases. That leaves him one steal from a second 30/30 effort in three seasons.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July 5, 2011

photo © 2009 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Here are some answers to a few of the questions that I recently received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you trade away Alexi Ogando for Carlos Beltran?
– @ToddScreamer

Back on May 16th I wrote the following about Ogando. “…there is no way he can perform this well all season… Ogando has been magnificent, but if you can convince someone that he is a top-20 hurler, now is the time to move him.” I have to admit he’s held on much longer than I thought he would, but at the same time there are some troublesome signs. First, he’s failed to last more than five innings in three of four starts. Second, over his last four starts he’s 1-3 with a 6.61 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Now you might say small sample size to brush off that recent run of poor work, but the mitigating factor here is that Ogando has already reached a career-high in innings pitched. In this day and age of pitch and inning counts, just how hard are the Rangers going to push Ogando? For that matter, how will his arm hold up under the increasingly heavy workload? Finally, Ogando owns a middling K/9 rate (6.73), a poor GB/FB (0.88) and there is still no way to explain his .247 BABIP given his over 22 percent line drive rate.

Beltran has been as good as ever at the plate. It’s pretty shocking actually given the physical issues that limited him to 145 games played the last two years. Let’s compare his work this season to his career averages.

Career: .282/.360/.494
2011: .281/.371/.492

It’s pretty amazing how close those numbers are. How about the counting stats you ask? He only has 350 plate appearances right now, so I’ll give you those numbers and his career averages per 350 PAs.

Career: 14 homers, 52 RBI, 54 runs, 14 steals
2011: 12 homers, 55 RBI, 46 runs, three steals

Pretty much everything suggests that Beltran is “back,” though the pink elephant in the room is the lack of steals. Given his knee issues the past few years they may never come back, but that doesn’t mean Beltran won’t continue to be a force with a bat in his hands.

I find it hard to believe I’m typing this, but I’m going to say Beltran is the better bet to replicate his first half work in the second half. Beltran could be traded to a team with a better offense and get a chance to ply his trade in a better home park, and that intrigues me. Plus, I’m just not sold that Ogando is (a) going to keep up his current level of performance and (b) that his arm isn’t going to fall off if he more than doubles his previous career-high in innings.

As a Matt Capps owner I picked up Joe Nathan. How much longer till I’m dropping Capps?
– @j_peterson730

Capps blew a save chance July 2nd, and then on July 3rd he was removed after allowing two hits (it was Glen Perkins and not Nathan who was called in to clean up the mess). Capps was not pleased, and he even got the kiss of death after the game when manager Ron Gardenhire said he was still the closer for the Twins. Capps has been as good as ever with a mere 1.03 BB/9 mark, he just doesn’t beat himself, but oddly his K/9 mark is way down to 5.40 per nine, a terrible mark (career 6.83). That’s danger territory. At the same time virtually all the other major indicators with him point to this being a “normal” Capps effort which equates to solid without being overly interesting or dominating.

Is that enough to hold off Nathan? There are two things at work here. (1) Nathan is still working his way back to full strength (Nathan’s thrown the ball very well since returning from the DL but we’re only talking about four innings). It is heartening though that over his last six outings that he’s picked up six Ks without a single walk. He’s getting closer, and the mph is creeping up, but he’s still not back to 2009 form quite yet. (2) The Twins continue to be beat down by injuries as much as any club in baseball, and as a result they are in fourth place in the AL Central. They’re only eight games out, but there is a chance that we reach the end of the month and the Twins make the decision to move Capps to another contender. If that occurs then the 9th would be wide open in Minnesota.

For now you have to keep Capps because you won’t get much for him on the trade market. There’s also the fact that he is still the Twins’ closer. However, know that he isn’t at all likely to be picking up saves in August unless it’s with another club.

I have Vlad Guerrero and Bobby Abreu. Nick Swisher just became a free agent. Drop one for him?
– @ZacharyReid

Swisher killed it in June hitting .326 with seven homers and 23 RBI. As a result he is on pace to go .248-19-92-77 over 533 ABs this season. In his career, per 533 at-bats, Swisher has produced a line of .252-27-84-88. Obviously he’s right back where he should be, and it’s clear he shouldn’t be on waiver-wires.

Guerrero has 442 homers, 1,461 RBI, owns a .318 career average and has more than 2,500 hits in his career. He’s also never failed to hit .295 in a season, and every time he has had 500 ABs he has gone deep at least times 27 with 83 RBI. He’s aging (36 years old), and his body has been oft injured the past few years, but it’s pretty shocking to find him on pace to go .276 with 11 homers and 53 RBI. Abreu is another aging vet who has one big advantage over Vlad – he still steals bases. Abreu has 13 thefts putting him on pace for a 13th straight season of at least 20 steals. He’s also seen his average come up to .285 on the year, and the dude can still get on base with a .395 OBP. His power seems pretty much gone, even 12 homers will be a surprise this season (he currently has three), but he’s still pretty stable at the dish and on the base paths.

Add Swisher at the expense of Bad Vlad.

Which Jays’ OF to go with: Travis Snider, Eric Thames or Rajai Davis?
– @nylivincamind

A first round selection in 2006, Snider has been up and down more than the super hero genre in movie theaters this year. When he’s in the majors he has struggled hitting .249 with a .743 OPS in his career, but he kills it in the minors. Snider hit .333 this year at Triple-A as the Jays left him down there a long while to make sure he found his stroke after hitting .184 in 87 at-bats with the Jays earlier in the year. Snider had three hits in his first game back, is just 23 years old, and scouts will tell you this is a 30 homer bat.

Thames hit 27 homers with 104 RBI last season at Double-A to gain everyone’s attention. With the Jays recent dump of Juan Rivera, Thames should get ample chance to prove himself in the bigs. He likes to swing at the first pitch, and sometimes struggles with secondary stuff, but there is no disputing that he has talent. However, he will likely have to contend with Corey Patterson and Davis for playing time which is why I’d prefer Snider over Thames.

What about Davis? It seems like he got the message that his playing time was about to be curtailed. Davis has five hits and four thefts in his last two outings. Despite all his struggles he is still looking at a third straight 40-steal season. It also deserves to be pointed out that Davis loved to hit in the second half as his average is .302, .046 points better than his first half mark, while his OPS goes up to .758, .119 points better than his first half mark.

Davis would be my choice here. His average should come up from his current .237 mark, and his wheels are elite giving him a chance to be a second half difference maker.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Giants Add Tejada

Tejada to Giants

The San Francisco Giants wasted no time replacing the departed Juan Uribe who signed with the Dodgers (Californian’s on the Move) by inking Miguel Tejada to a 1-year deal for $6.5 million. So let me see if I have this right. The Giants said adios to Uribe when the Dodgers offered him $7 million a season, for three years mind you, and then went out and signed Tejada for two years less and with a savings of $500,000 in 2011. That seems like a pretty good trade off to me. Let’s take a look at the production of each player in 2010.

Tejada: .269-15-71-71-2 with 26 doubles, .312 OBP, .381 SLG
Uribe: .248-24-85-64-1 with 24 doubles, .310 OBP, .440 SLG

No one will argue that Uribe has more pop, or that he is a better defender at this stage of each players careers, but those numbers are still pretty darn close are they not? Given the financial investment that was given to both players, you have to say that the Giants came out ahead if for no other reason than they didn’t have to agree to a contract that was for three years.

Let’s take a deeper look at the 2011 outlook for Tejada.

No longer the MVP level player he once was, Tejada still has some success at the dish. Largely because of the fact that he simply is never hurt – he has appeared in at least 156 games in 11 of the last 12 seasons – Tejada has managed to record at least 13 homers, 66 RBI and 71 runs scored in each of those 12 seasons. Those numbers certainly don’t excite as much as having plans on a Friday night with a lady friend, but they are still noteworthy because Tejada is the only shortstop in baseball who has reached them each of the past 12 years. Moreover, he is one of only three players, regardless of position, with a 12-year stretch of 13-66-71. The other two players in the group are Bobby Abreu and Alex Rodriguez. That level of production makes Tejada a strong NL-only option, but he is more of a middle infield option in mixed leagues (don’t forget that Miguel qualifies at both short – 58 games – and third base – 97 games – in 2011).

The downside though is always present with Tejada, especially as he enters his late 30′s.

(1) He will be 37 years old in late May, and that fact, combined with years of heavy work, leave his defensive acumen in some serious doubt. He is nothing more than an average option at short – that is being kind – and is clearly better suited to play third base at this stage of his career.

(2) He hasn’t hit more than 18 homers since 2006 and in each of the past three seasons his HR/F ratio has been under 8.3 percent, a disappointing total for a player who owns a career mark of 12.6 percent. The fact is that Tejada isn’t going to go deep 20 times in 2011, especially hitting in San Francisco. He has been remarkably consistent though in his ground ball to fly ball ratio which has been between 1.52 and 1.69 the past four years, so one would think he still has a shot at 15 dingers.

(3) He is an extremely impatient hitter. While his .339 career OBP is merely average and honestly a poor number for a player of his skill level, he has been even worse in two of the last three seasons (.314, .340 and .312). When you have middling power and no stolen base speed, it certainly would be advisable to work the count at least a bit. Alas, that just isn’t in the cards with Tejada. On the plus side he does make excellent contact with a career K-rate of less than 13 percent. In addition, his K-rate has been less than 11.5 percent in each of the past four seasons. His bat might be slowing with age, but he still isn’t striking out.

In the end, the Giants did well to add Tejada at a cost that makes more sense than what the Dodgers paid to Juan Uribe. As a Giants fans I wish they would have made a move to bring in Jason Bartlett to play short, but given the relatively minor investment that they made in Tejada I’m not against this deal, that is until an 18 hop ground ball works its way through the left side of the Giants’ infield between Tejada and Pablo Sandoval.

By Ray Flowers

Top-20 OFs for 2011

Taking a look back at 2010 and trying to project what will happen in 2011 is what we do at Fanball. To that end, Ted Carlson has been sending out assignments for us to rank our top options at each position for the 2011 season. Today, I’ll defend my rankings for the Top-20 Outfielders for 2011, focusing on two players that I was called out on in the article (I jest of course because Ted and I, more than anyone else on staff, seem to agree on a whole lot of this baseball stuff).

ALEX RIOS

Rios was ranked 5th, 8th twice, and 10th by the other four voters whereas I had him at 15th. Why was I lower on him than everyone else? My thoughts.

(1) I’m a big believer in consistency, and Rios has never been associated with that term in his life. In 2009 he hit .199 over his last 41 games to finish the year on an extreme down note. He wasn’t anywhere near that bad in 2010 but he did bat a puny .258 in the second half. In fact, he always seems to tire in the second half as his batting average dips .021 points after the All-Star break.

(2) His power isn’t anywhere near elite. Only twice has Rios hit 20-homers – he hit 21 in 2010 and 24 in 2007. With his build, and swing, more has always been expected in this category. However, Rios is about league average in his fly ball rate (career: 37.5 percent) and his HR/F mark (career: 8.9 percent), so he’ll likely be nothing more than a 20 homer threat, not that there is anything wrong with residing at that level. Speaking of a lack of consistency, he hit 11 homers in his first 47 games only to go deep a mere 10 more times in his last 100 games in 2010.

(3) He’s never been more than a solid producer of runs and RBI. Don’t get me wrong, there aren’t many guys out there who you can legitimately book for 80 and 80, but it should be pointed out that Rios has been under 80-RBI twice in the past three years, and he has averaged 81 runs scored the past three years.

(4) While he doesn’t strikeout too frequently (18.2 percent), he also doesn’t walk much (6.5 percent). As a result his career BB/K mark is 0.39, well below the big league average of about 0.50.

(5) Rios just doesn’t hit that many balls on a line. For the past two years he has failed to post a LD-rate of even 17 percent (the big league average is 19-20 percent). His career mark is also an ordinary 19.3 percent. Rios also owns a 1.15 GB/FB ratio, which again, is within hailing distance of the big league average.

(6) And finally, there is this. Here are his 3-year averages compared to Bobby Abreu

A.Rios: .275-18-79-81-30
Abreu: .281-18-94-95-25

I’m not saying I’d take the aging Abreu over Rios straight up, I wouldn’t, I’m just pointing out that while people reach on Rios in 2011 I’ll just wait five rounds and grab Bobby Abreu thank you.

JOSE BAUTISTA

Ted was totally right when he wrote “It was likely with great reluctance that Ray ranked him [20th].” Just how right was Ted with that line of thought? I won’t say he was as accurate as Copernicus who correctly postulated that the Sun, and not the Earth, was at the center of the universe, but he was pretty darn close. In fact, can I have a re-vote? There is very little chance that I will ever rank Bautista this high again, chalk it up to World Series insanity (my Giants, as you know, were playing in it) so enjoy it while it lasts Jays’ fans. I won’t rehash my thoughts on why Bautista will be a bust in 2010 here, I’ll instead just point you to my Breaking Down: Jose Bautista piece which elucidates my position very concisely including this rather memorable line. “Will Bautista be as productive in 2011 as he was in 2010? If he is, I’ll pose for Playgirl.”

I should have read my own article before I submitted my vote.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Jan. 14, 2010

Today, I’ll take a look around MLB. (1) The latest on Carlos Beltran’s knee surgery. (2) Brad Lidge has second surgery this off-season. (3) Adam LaRoche signs with D’backs. (4) Josh Johnson wants 4 years. Will he get it? (5) Johnny Damon to Braves? (6) Joel Zumaya agrees to deal. (7) Jermaine Dye to Cubs? (8) Dodgers need starting pitching.

By Ray Flowers

2009 AL All-Star Team

With the baseball regular season wrapped up, I thought I would spend a few minutes detailing for you the 2009 Fantasy All-Star Team for the American League. It’s certainly not an easy call naming just a handful of guys, I’m sure some of you will disagree with some of my choices, but here is my best effort to give you the names of the best guys the Junior Circuit had to offer.

CATCHER: Joe Mauer

Duh. When you lead the league in average (.365), OBP (.444) and SLG (.587) there is nothing this guy didn’t do in 2009.

FIRST BASE: Mark Teixeira

This was a really close race between Tex and Miguel Cabrera, but the Yankees’ slugger pulled just slightly ahead.

Teixeira: .292/.383/.565 with 39 homers, 122 RBI and 103 runs
Cabrera: .324/.396/.547 with 34 homers, 103 RBI and 96 runs

SECOND BASE:Ben Zobrist

While it pains me to pass on Robinson Cano (.320-25-85-103-5) and Aaron Hill (.289-36-108-103-6), I’m going to go with Zobrist who played 91 games at second base. Zobrist hit a strong .297, flashed a lot of power (27 homers, 91 RBI) and stole more bases than the other two combined (17).

THIRD BASE:Evan Longoria

He led the position with 33 homers and 113 RBI while coming in second in runs (100). Despite all that he hit 20 homers with only 58 RBI over his last 106 games. Chone Figgins was a hell of a backup option (.298-5-54-114-42).

SHORTSTOP:Derek Jeter

The Yankees’ captain led his position in average (.334) and runs (107) while at the same time hitting 18 homers with 66 RBI and 30 steals making this a rather easy call. Jason Bartlett might have caught him if he had stayed healthy for more than 137 games (.320-14-66-90-30).

OUTFIELD:Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, Bobby Abreu

Ellsbury led baseball with 70 steals. Crawford managed to swipe 60 bags while hitting 15 homers and, knocking in 96 runs – all the while hitting .305. Abreu batted .293 with 103 RBI, 96 runs and 30 steals of his own. Tough to leave off Jason Bay (.267-36-119-103-13) and Adam Lind (.305-35-114-93-1), but their all-around games left them just on the outside.

STARTING PITCHER:Zack Greinke, Roy Halladay, Felix Hernandez

I already broke down this battle in a previous piece titled The AL Cy Young Race .

RELIEF PITCHER:Joe Nathan

I’m skipping over the league leader in saves (Brian Fuentes had 48) as well as the man who is widely regarded as the best closer of all-time (Mariano Rivera) to go with the Twins’ hurler. Why? Nathan had 47 saves, a 2.10 ERA, a 0.93 WHIP and 89 Ks on the year while limiting batters to a .171 BAA, that’s why.

By Ray Flowes

Playoff Baseball: ALCS

I covered the NLCS in my last column, so as not to draw the ire of those that follow the AL game, today’s piece is dedicated completely to Game 3 of the ALCS.

Base Running

I know that Andy Pettitte has a great move to first, but what in the hell were the Angels doing in Game 3 of the ALCS? I know they love to run and pride themselves on being aggressive on the base paths, but situations like Torii Hunter getting picked off with Vlad Guerrero at the dish is simply inexcusable. Period.

Speaking of inexcusable, what the hell was Bobby Abreu thinking on that double in the eighth inning? All the talk will be about how Derek Jeter made some spectacular play to cut off the throw from the outfield to nab Abreu as he rounded second, but the truth is that the play had little to do with Jeter who caught the throw from the outfield and then threw the ball to second. The real play was made by first baseman Mar Teixeira who followed Abreu down to second from his first base position (Robinson Cano was in the outfield as the cutoff man, while Jeter was functioning as the second cutoff man leaving no one left to cover second base). So give kudos to Teixeira while at the same time deriding Abreu who had about a two percent chance of making third on the hit and should have just stayed at second base. This was another prime example of the Angels running themselves out of an inning.

Why I Dislike the AL

Am I the only one who detests the American League game? Something about the DH has always stuck in my craw – just don’t like it. The game was meant to be a 9-on-9 affair, not a 10-on-10 effort. If you want that go join your local beer league.

Clutch Hitting

So much for Alex Rodriguez being a chocker in the playoffs. Now it’s all anyone can do to avoid falling all over themselves to voice the view that he is all of a sudden clutch. I said it before the playoffs began, and I’ll say it again: I know it’s where reputations are made, but don’t overestimate anecdotal evidence in the playoffs. Also, don’t make the mistake of taking a tiny group of games and thinking that you can extrapolate out some reasonably accurate assessment of a player’s ability to produce in the clutch. A-Rod entered these playoffs, with 147 career post-season at-bats, hardly enough work to think you can accurate describe A-Rod as a “chocker.” Remember back when Barry Bonds was awful in the playoffs only to go out and put a whopping on the Angels in the 2002 World Series (four homers, six RBI, .471 average and a .700 OBP in 30 plate appearances)? As with A-Rod, that’s simply too small a sample size to draw any reasonable conclusions. However, when you turn to Derek Jeter we are talking about well over 500 at-bats – he has appeared in 129 post-season games (a record) with more hits (161) than anyone ever – that is more than enough to draw some conclusions. Not surprisingly, Jeter comes through as you would expect with a batting line (.309/.378/.480) that is a near identical match for his work in the regular season (.317/.388/.459). That man is the definition of clutch.

Oh, and it’s only eight games, but Ryan Howard has an RBI in 8-straight post-season contests, an all-time record (tied with Lou Gehrig). Still, it’s just eight games.

Why I Dislike the AL Part II

Speaking of disliking the AL game, is it me or can you time these games with a sundial? Besides having less in-game strategy as clubs sit back and wait for the long ball, somehow the games always seen to take at least four hours. I found myself drooling down my chin a couple of times and once I almost smashed my head full on into my keyboard before I caught myself during Game 3.

Why I Dislike the AL Part III

The Yankees are in the AL. Oh, and Tim McCarver is announcing the series.

By Ray Flowers