The Value of Relief Pitching

I recently detailed how my team turned out in KFFL’s K -BAD League. As a review of that club will show, I waited in pitching and assembled what I believe to be a strong group of starting pitchers – James Shields, Yovani Gallardo, Jon Lester, Dan Haren, Shaun Marcum, James McDonald and Francisco Liriano . However, I’m not blind to the fact that I rostered an awful lot of risk. Lester and Haren are coming off down years, Marcum is once again dealing with some shoulder weakness, McDonald was terrible in the second half and Liriano is suffering from a broken non-throwing arm (we have a DL spot in this league which is where Liriano will end up). So how did I combat that risk? Besides building an impressive offense, I also rostered four dynamic arms in Steve Cishek, Kenley Jansen, Bobby Parnell and David Robertson. ‘But Ray, how does that rally help you since only one of those guys is locked into the 9th inning for his team?’ Ah, and with that question we dig into the meat of today’s article.

Let’s look at each relievers numbers from last season.

Cishek: 2.69 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 68 Ks, five wins, 15 saves
Jansen: 2.35 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, 99 Ks, five wins, 25 saves
Parnell: 2.49 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 61 Ks, five wins, seven saves
Robertson: 2.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 81 Ks, two wins, two saves

All of those four produced solid efforts last season, wouldn’t you say? That group would have also brought you 49 saves last season, on the cheap, which is a huge bonus given their draft day cost. But did you realize just how dominating they were on the hill? In fact, that foursome of hurlers was just as good, better actually, than Justin Verlander last season, and no, I haven’t been drinking (though that White Russian on the counter is about 10 minutes away from being sipped). Take a look.

Verlander: 17 wins, 2.64 ERA, 239Ks, 1.06 WHIP in 238.1 innings
Relievers: 17 wins, 2.55 ERA, 309 Ks, 1.14 WHIP in 258 innings

Remember two other extremely salient points.

(1) Verlander had zero saves and the relievers had 49.

(2) Verlander’s cost $27 last year in Tout Wars (15 team mixed league).
The relievers cost $7 ($0 Cishek, $6 Jansen, $0, Parnell, $1 Robertson).

So, if you had that reliever group you would have gotten better numbers than Justin Verlander, plus don’t forget to add in the 49 saves, and spent a fourth as much money on draft day. Are you starting to see my point? Year after year relievers and their value to teams in the fantasy game is undervalued because people think that if a reliever isn’t giving you saves then he’s not helping your team. Granted, if your team is throwing 1,500 innings over the course of a season 65 innings from one reliever really isn’t going to leave much of a mark, but if you have two, three, four or five guys doing that, then it gets really interesting as you can see in the example above.

Some further notes.

(1) Target skills, not roles, with relievers.

(2) Taking relievers in the reserve rounds is a strong move if you are uncertain about your starting pitching group.

(3) Relievers, unlike starting pitchers, can contribute in all five categories.

(4) It may seem counter-intuitive, but sometimes less is more. Last season David Robertson earned $5 of fantasy value even though he threw only 60.2 innings. Lucas Harrell won 11 games, struck out 140 batters, posted a 3.76 ERA and 1.36 WHIP over 193.2 innings. While that seems like Harrell’s effort would result in better fantasy value that Robertson, would it shock you to learn that he too earned $5 last season? Remember, the league ERA last year was 4.01, the WHIP 1.31, and obviously a .500 record (Harrell was 11-11 and won only 11 games in 32 starts). The fact is that Harrell was decidedly average across the board meaning that he gave you 193.2 innings of average while Robertson gave you 60.2 innings of impressive work. In the end, their fantasy production ended up being the same.

Relievers may not be the sexy adds late in drafts, but a group of guys like those I noted above can not only provide you excellent numbers, but they can also help to cover up some weakness in your starting pitching unit while at the same time offering a tremendous chance to receive a substantial return on your investment. Don’t forget that fact on draft day cause rostering Jake McGee over a guy like Bronson Arroyo at the end of a draft might be the better long-term move in many cases.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part III, BBGuys Team

The fellas over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (the proceeding link takes you to an analysis by every participant on the league). In Part III of this three part review I’ll break down how my squad turned out.

C: Yadier Molina (7th round), Jarrod Saltalamacchia (21)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (18), Mark Reynolds (23)
2B: Dustin Ackley (19)
3B: Miguel Cabrera (1), Martin Prado (6)
SS: Hanley Ramirez (2), Starlin Castro (3)
OF: Austin Jackson (4), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Nick Markakis (10), Mark Trumbo (11), Dexter Fowler (12), Ben Revere (13), Michael Brantley (25), Domonic Brown (26)

STARTING PITCHER: James Shields (8), Yovani Gallardo (9), Jon Lester (14), Dan Haren (15), Shaun Marcum (22), James McDonald (24), Francisco Liriano (28)

RELIEF PITCHER: Steve Cishek (16), Kenley Jansen (17), Bobby Parnell (20), David Robertson (27

For a review of my selections in rounds 1-14.

For a review of my selections in rounds 15-28.

MY MISTAKES

My team is too outfield heavy. There’s just no reason why, especially with a short bench of five players, that I should have added so many outfielders. So why did I? I was sucked into the value the players represented. The problem wouldn’t have been as acute as it is if I hadn’t gone with Brantley and then Brown back-to-back in the 25th and 26th rounds. I took Brantley who I think has the makings of a strong 5th outfielder but I was really tempted to take a shot on Brown’s talent at the same time. When it came around to me again and Brown was still there, I just said what the heck and took Brown too. There’s trading in this league which will help me to move a piece or two, and a handful of outfielders will certainly get hurt before Opening Day (see Curtis Granderson).

My other mistake in this league also revolved around the outfield (maybe subconsciously I was trying to make up for it late in the draft?). I took Ben Revere in the 13th round. I commented at the time I made the selection, and you can read that comment in Part I (linked to above), that I was likely taking Revere too early given how “like” players were often slipping in drafts. I should have listened to my gut. Instead of Revere in the 13th I could have had Coco Crisp in the 18th or Juan Pierre in the 18th round. Learn from my misstep – speed can be had late in drafts this season.

PLAYERS I MISSED OUT ON BY ONE PICK

I have never, not once in a my life, had more players that I was ready to roster taken one pick ahead of me than this draft. In 28 rounds there were eight instances where “my guy” was taken the pick directly ahead of me. Is that some kind of record? Here’s the list of players I missed out on.
Dustin Pedroia, B.J. Upton, Madison Bumgarner, Corey Hart, Neil Walker, Russell Martin, Tyler Colvin, Erasmo Ramirez

I can therefore say one of two things. If I win this league perhaps my initial thoughts on players were wrong since I ended up going with my “backup” plan so often. If I finish in 10th place I’m going to blame others for taking “my guys.” A built in excuse already. Honestly, I can’t remember this happening to me so much. It should be noted as well that this was a “slow” draft conducted over days. It’s one thing to want a player in the heat of battle where there are seven minutes between selections. It’s totally another when you have seven hours between your picks to plan your strategy and then you lose the guy you were targeting. Getting snaked in this set up hurts even worse.

Just for the heck of it – beautiful women.

OVERALL THOUGHTS

As I noted in my initial pick-by-pick review, this team started out nails in the average column. After seven offensive selections my team could legitimately be looked at as a club that could hit .300. That cushion in the average category allowed me to take shots on guys like Saltalamacchia, Trumbo and Reynolds who aren’t going to do anything for me in the average department. However, that Trio of batters could go deep 80+ times fairly easily with health. That power allowed me to feel fine about guys like Revere, Fowler and Markakis being part of my club. I’m a big fan of the mix I’ve got on offense. The key for the squad will be how Youkilis/Reynolds and Ackley perform. If the two corner guys return to “normal” and Ackley shows just a little improvement, this offense is going to impress.

On the hill there are questions. Shields/Gallardo are an impressive top-2 (even if many would disagree). Lester/Haren/Marcum are a trio of risky selections cause of health and down performances last season, but that’s a lot of talent. I defy anyone to tell me that Shields/Gallardo/Lester/Haren couldn’t all be 180 strikeout guys, and let’s not forget about McDonald who could get there too. As I’ve noted many times as well, Marcum never gets the respect he should because of his constant time in the doctor’s office. Liriano’s DL stint at the start of the season will also allow me to add another hurler as soon as he is officially place on the disabled list, so I’ll get to add another potential hurler at that time (Joe Blanton, Kyle Lohse, Bud Norris, Clayton Richard are all on my radar). As for the bullpen, I really like the skills there. Cishek is my only true “closer” to start the year, but as we saw last year when literally two-thirds of clubs ended up changing their 9th inning arms, it’s unwise to read too much into relievers roles at this point. Remember, do what I always preach – target the skills and not the roles. To that end Cishek, Jansen, Parnell and Robertson have elite skills. Elite. I’ll work the wire hard early in the year when the inevitable bullpen shenanigan’s start.

We’ll see how things go, but overall I’m a fan of how this team turned out, even if so many of the guys I had targeted ended up on other clubs.

Thanks to KFFL.com for the invite yet again.

For a PDF copy of the entire K-BAD-Results, click on the link.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD – 2013: Part II, Rounds 15-28

The peeps over over at KFFL.com have a fantasy baseball league nicknamed K-BAD, for Baseball Analysis Draft, and for the 5th straight year I’m honored to have been asked to participate (to see how others in the league constructed their clubs, click on the link above). In Part II of this three part series I will review selections made in rounds 15-28.

For a review of selections in rounds 1-14.

Round 15: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Players: Dan Haren, SP
I believe Haren will rebound in 2013. Here’s the reasons why.

Round 16: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Steve Cishek, RP
Wanted Corey Hart who was taken a pick ahead. Therefore decided to make the plunge with my first closer. Stronger skills than Jim Johnson who had 51 saves last year.

Round 17: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Kenley Jansen
It looks like Brandon League will be the closer to start the year, but I expect Jansen to lead the Dodgers in saves just like he did last season after starting out as a setup man. Just a massive arm.

Round 18: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B
He qualifies at both corner infield spots, will get to hit in a solid batters yard in New York, is motivated, and has reworked his swing a bit. All of those things are pluses.

Round 19: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Dustin Ackley, 2B
I don’t know how he scored more than 80 runs with an OBP under .300 last year. Some slight improvement across the board could lead to 10th round production.

Round 20: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Bobby Parnell
There’s no doubting Frank Francisco has a huge arm, but elbow woes could lead to the fire balling/ground ball inducing Parnell becoming the Mets’ closer.

Round 21: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Jarrod Saltalamacchia
The guy I wanted (Russell Martin) was taken one pick before me (what a shock). Salty could go for 25 HRs, so he’s not an awful consolation prize.

Round 22: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Shaun Marcum, SP
Injuries have sapped his value in some folks eyes, but since 2008 an average Marcum season: 11-7, 3.57 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 7.44 K/9, 2.91 K/BB in 168 innings.

Round 23: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Mark Reynolds, 1B
Few seem to remember, but from 2008 an average Reynolds effort has led to 33 homers, 88 RBIs, 83 runs, 10 steals. So what if he’s hit .229 in that time? I can handle the average with my roster.

Round 24: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: James McDonald, SP
A tale of two halves. In the first he was impressive (9-3, 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP ). In the second he sucked eggs (3-5, 7.52 ERA, 1.79 WHIP). Still has that power arm. See his Player Profile.

Round 25: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Michael Brantley, OF
Not that far away from being someone of note. He was one of nine outfielders to go .288-6-60-63-12 last season. See his Player Profile.

Round 26: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Domonic Brown, OF
I really didn’t need another outfielder after taking Brantle, but with Delmon Young nursing an ankle injury maybe, just maybe, Brown will finally flash that 20/20 talent. We can trade in this league too, and Mr. Minnix has already expressed an interest in Mr. Brown.

Round 27: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: David Robertson
Had a great season last year and people forget if he hadn’t gotten hurt it likely would have been him, and not Rafael Soriano, who led the Yankees in saves.

Round 28: Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
Player: Francisco Liriano, SP
Why make the injured lefty my last selection? We’ve got two DL spots in this league. I’ll put Liriano on the DL and then grab another SP as soon as I can. See his Player Profile.

And with that all there is to do is to review the final squad which is what I will do in Part III of the series.

• Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Mock Draft: Talking Pitching Early

In fantasy baseball circles I’m known as the ‘anti-pitcher’ guy. I tell people all the time that in re-draft leagues there is no reason to take a pitcher at the top of a draft, and I practice what I preach (see how my staff turned out in the recent FSTA Experts Draft where I waited until the 8th round to take my first hurler). I know though that many others disagree with that line of thought. So for the sake of thoroughness and seeing both sides of the coin, I decided to flip my traditional script on its ear and go pitching early in a draft. Not only did I go pitching early, I went bonkers with pitching early.

I was invited by Cory Schwartz of MLB.com to participate in a 15 team mixed league (23 rounds with 14 hitters and nine pitchers, but no bench). I drew the 13th pick in the draft and thought, what the hell, I’m taking a hurler in the first round to see how my team would turn out since I know so many of you are drafting hurlers in the first round. I took Clayton Kershaw. When my second turn came up, pick #18 overall, guess which dominating righty was still available? If you said Justin Verlander you are correct. If you said that I did the unthinkable and took Verlander as well… you’d be right again. Not only did I blow past my ‘never take a pitcher in the first round’ strategy, I multiplied the pitching love by grabbing the top two arms in the game with my first two selections. How did my team turn out? Let’s take a look.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

C: Matt Wieters (6th round), John Jaso (17)
1B: Adrian Gonzalez (4)
2B: Marco Scutaro (20)
3B: Pablo Sandoval (5)
SS: Alcides Escobar (11)
MI: Josh Rutledge (12)
CI: Adam LaRoche (14)
OF: Jay Bruce (3), Nelson Cruz (7), Carl Crawford (8), Shane Victorino (9), Nick Markakis (10)
UT: Brett Gardner (16)

STARTING PITCHERS: Clayton Kershaw (1), Justin Verlander (2), Tim Hudson (15), James McDonald (18), Wandy Rodriguez (19)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Jason Grilli (13), Sean Marshall (21), David Robertson (22), Bobby Parnell (23)

I certainly went as big as one could in the first two rounds on the hill, but then I didn’t take another arm until the 13th round, and my third starter didn’t come until the 15th (I would bet many who do go big early on pitching then sit back and wait to fill out their staff with the thought being that they got a stud or two early so now they can afford to wait). This was only a 23 round draft, there were no bench rounds, so you can be assured that at least two, possibly three, of my bench spots would have been devoted to starting pitchers to round out the group. Still, with the two best arms in baseball at the top, a strong ratio guy (Hudson), a potential 180 K guy (McDonald), and a cheap/solid arm (Wandy), I like this group given the constraints I was working under.

I also love my bullpen arms. You might be saying to yourself ‘but Ray you only have one closer,’ and that’s fair, but look at those four arms. That quartet of relievers should be good for 10 strikeouts per nine innings. They are also likely to flat out kill it in ERA and WHIP. In fact, that foursome could very easily dust both Kershaw and Verlander in ERA, WHIP, K/9… and they have the chance to pick up a few saves as well. Basically, if everything goes according to plan, I’ll win Ks, ERA and WHIP. Wins, should be solid enough, and with an injury or poor performance here or there I could get some lucky saves love as well. Remember, only 23 round in this draft, so there would be plenty of time to add more depth to a unit that is filled with power arms in the reserve rounds.

So the staff is impressive. What about the offense, is it offensive like stinky cheese?

My duo at catcher is strong. In a 15 team league to get a duo that is capable of doing the things of Wieters and Jason – gotta like that.

A-Gone is about as good a bet to go .300 with 100 RBIs as any first baseman in baseball not named Pujols or Votto. Sandoval is a potential .300-25 guy at the other corner if he can avoid that third helping of plantains at dinner (his career bests would leave him with a .330-25-90 line). Up the middle I’ve got solid but boring Scutaro. He’s not likely to blow blast past .300 this year (see his Player Profile). Escobar is a solid add for the speed, but there are some questions about his overall game (see his Player Profile). At corner infield LaRoche is boring but does he ever put up numbers in the counting categories. Rutledge doesn’t have a big league season under his belt, but there’s 15/15 potential there.

The outfield is solid. I’ve got Bruce and Cruz for some pop, and then went all-around game with Crawford and Victorino. Questions abound about what Crawford has left to give, and if Victorino can hang on for another season (see his Player Profile), but if they are both healthy there no disputing that the results could potential lead to a bounty of offense. Markakis isn’t a big name, but since most of the big names went off the board while I was grabbing my two arms, he was a strong fallback play for my squad. Ditto on Gardner who people forget averaged 48 steals and 92 runs scored in 2010-11.

So to wrap it up. The offense has solid speed (Gardner, Escobar, Victorino and Crawford). There’s some decent pop but nothing over the top. I had to take chances on talent that was coming back from injury as the depressed value allowed the fellas to be available for me to roster well later than they would be if they were coming off a healthy 2012 (Sandoval, Crawford, Markakis, Gardner). If that foursome of players all play 150 games then this offense will be pretty decent for a 15 team league.

Is it a perfect team? No sir. Is it a solid enough team that I could compete with it? I think the answer is yes. However, there are certain health risks on offense, and how those players perform in 2013 will likely determine how this team will ultimately finish after I spent my top two picks on the best lefty-righty duo anyone in the fantasy game could put together in 2013..

For the full results click on the link to MLB.com Draft.

MLB.com_SlowDraft-RESULTS

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Athletics & Astros Deal

The Athletics and the Astros completed a five player deal, and though none of the names really jumps off the page at you, there are two names that will be drafted in nearly all mixed leagues and they also have the ability to be impressive single league contributors. There’s also an arm you might want to pay attention to in the reserve rounds of AL-only leagues. Oh, I’ll also touch on the Mets’ bullpen and my favorite Mexican food.

The A’s and Astros pulled off a five player deal Monday. Here are the details.

Athletics Receive: Jed Lowrie, Fernando Rodriguez
Astros Receive: Chris Carter, Brad Peacock, Max Stassi

Here’s a quick rundown.

Lowrie is the “big” name, for what that is worth. He leaves a good hitter’s park in Houston for a pitcher’s yard in Oakland. He’s also never able to stay healthy. Here are his games played totals: 81, 32, 55, 88 & 97. That’s five years without even 100 games played folks. He’s also got the most boring slash line you will ever see: .250/.326/.417. With a full season of at-bats 20 homers is possible, but as you can tell from this brief little note, I’m not a huge fan. Rodriguez was 2-10 with a 5.37 ERA last year in the minors, but at least he struck out 78 batters in 70.1 innings. ”He’s got a real big arm,” A’s GM’ Billy Beane said. ”His record, his ERA are probably a little bit misleading.”

Carter is the big catch for the Astros. He has immense power, and with Minute Maid Park posting a Park Indices mark of 107 for right handed batters (seven percent better than the league average), his power should be on full display, and oh what a stroke it is. Carter powered 12 homers with 53 RBIs in 72 games at Triple-A before blasting 16 homers in just 218 at-bats with the Athletics. A word of caution though. Carter strikes out a ton, 83 in 218 at-bats last season and 124 in 332 career at-bats leading to a scary 32.3 percent K-rate. It’s no surprised he has hit .214 in those 332 at-bats. He’s got oodles of raw power, but he might perform a lot like his new teammate, Carlos Pena, in 2013 (I would have to think that Pena plays first base with Carter at DH most of the time leaving Brett Wallace without a spot in the daily lineup unless the ‘Stros decide to let him play some third base where they appear likely to go with Matt Dominguez to start the year). Peacock had a disastrous 2012 at Triple-A with a 6.01 ERA, 1.58 WHIP and 4.41 BB/9 mark over 134.2 innings. A one time high end prospect, he’s likely to get a chance at the Astros’ fifth rotation spot this spring, but given the downgrade he offered on the field last season he;s likely going to have to prove himself all over again (he was dominant in 2011 though – 15-3, 2.39 ERA, 0.99 WHIP with 177 Ks in 146.2 innings at Double and Triple A). Stassi is a catcher who played at High-A last season and is likely a couple of years away.

I like burritos but not tacos, especially if the tacos have hard shells. Carnitas is my favorite, as are black beans. I think you need something in there to grease the wheel, I like guacamole or sour cream, but I think cheese is a bit of an overkill since, honestly, it’s hard to taste it with everything else in the mix. Just thought I would share.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

Who is the Mets closer? We are left to assume it’s Frank Francisco at the moment, but GM Sandy Alderson isn’t ready to confirm that line of thought. “I think a lot will depend on what we see over the course of February and into March,” Alderson said. “I think that’s something that will be determined in the course of spring training. Health is an issue. Performance is an issue.” Francisco had a 5.53 ERA and 1.61 WHIP last season, though he was surprisingly effective in the saves category converting 23 of 26 chances. He’s a big strikeout arm, 415 in 376.1 career innings, but he’s often bit by the long ball and last season he had a hard time finding the strike zone with a 4.46 BB/9 mark. The Mets may be interested in Jose Valverde, but they would likely be better off going with Bobby Parnell if they don’t go with Frank. Bobby does exactly what I look for in any hurler – he provides strikeouts and grounders. Parnell has averaged 8.25 Ks per nine innings, and last season his ground ball rate was over 61 percent (career 1.80). Last season ha also reigned in the walks issuing just 2.62 batters per nine, and when you throw 96 mph+ batters have a tough squaring up the ball consistently.

Don’t forget to get your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 16, 2010

(1) Francisco Rodriguez out with torn ligament.

(2) Jeremy Hellickson likely to make only one more start.

(3) Carlos Pena back in action.

(4) Nelson Cruz back on DL – hammy injury.

(5) Eric Young Jr. to get shot at PT with Rockies.

(6) Ryan Howard (ankle) a bit longer on shelf. Chase Utley back on Tuesday.

(7) Jason Bay and Justin Morneau reports (both out with concussions).

By Ray Flowers