Timing is Everything

People try to play fantasy baseball like they try to time the stock market. If it works, an it rarely does, you look like a genius. In the long run, most of the time if you just stand pat, provided of course that you have the right commodities in your portfolio, you will come out ahead. Today I’ll give my thoughts on which ballplayers you’ll want to hold on to, and which might end up disappointing you with only a moderate return on your investment.

I still find it rather surprising that so many people seem so willing to toss away Michael Bourn in trade offers. I know he has no homers and seven RBI, but folks, do you realize how good he has been otherwise? Besides hitting .333 this speedster also has a .404 OBP and he’s on pace for 108 runs scored and 59 steals. Deal him at your own peril.

Rafael Furcal is hitting .342 with 15 RBI, 22 runs scored and six steals for the Cardinals reminding everyone that he can still be a dynamic talent when healthy. However, and you know how I hate to bring bad news, the guy has failed to appear in 100 games in three of the past four years so I wouldn’t be at all adverse to anyone trading him while they can because things are bound to get ugly at some point.

Ryan Howard (Achilles), finally, took batting practice Monday for the first time since February. Howard still doesn’t have a target date for a return, but the prevailing wisdom is that he will be back in action, barring any more setbacks of course, in late May or early June. Given his rate of production the past two years – he’s averaged 32 homers and 112 RBI the past two campaigns – if he starts action on June 1st he’d be able to play in 2/3 of the Phillies games this season. That would equate to about 21 homers and 75 RBI. Of course, that’s if he hits the ground running and matches his level of production from the past two seasons. I’m not sure that is going to happen given how much time he has missed (for more on Howard see his Player Profile).

Ask around and people will tell you that Andrew McCutchen has been a major disappointment. I can’t sit here and say I’m not leaning in that direction myself, but let’s keep things in perspective. He’s one hit from batting .300 at .298 which would be a career best. His current .356 OBP is just under his career .364 rate, and that’s despite the fact that his walk rate has gone down by about 40 percent from his career level. He’s also on pace for 29 thefts after averaging 26 his first three big league seasons. The reason he’s been disappointing is that he’s gone 94 at-bats without a home run leading him to a paltry seven RBI. He’s also scored only seven times since the Pirates offense has been so anemic. I’m on record though as a big time McCutchen supporter, an I’m still in that camp.

There’s only one more show for Smash. Who will be named Marilyn – Karen Cartwright or Ivy Lynn? I can’t believe that I just admitted to the world that I actually watch Smash. Go Karen.

Remember when you were panicked because Brandon Morrow had a 4.50 ERA and just nine strikeouts in his first three starts? Hopefully you held on tight to the fire balling righty as he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over his last three starts. He’s also struck out 20 batters and walked just one in stamping himself as an arm to watch this season.

Sounds like Brad Penny faked an injury to his shoulder to get out of his two year deal with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in the Japan League (tests showed no structural damage). Count me as shocked. That guy is a joke, has been for years. Regardless, it’s only a matter of time before some team takes the plunge and signs Penny even though his performance since 2008 has been flat out bad: 31-33, 5.11 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 4.79 K/9, 1.64 K/BB.

Dale Thayer got the save for the Padres Monday night. Andrew Cashner, thought by many to be the presumptive favorite for 9th inning work with Huston Street out with a lat injury, threw 39 pitches Sunday so he was likely unavailable meaning we still don’t really know who will serve as the 9th inning arm (Luke Gregerson could also get some work). Cashner has a huge arm, but he also often has no idea where the ball is going. In 13.2 innings he struck out 12 batters but he’s also walked 12. That’s ugly. Thayer, who has more than 170 minor league saves in his minor league career, has walked only one batter in 31 big league innings as the anti-Cashner. You have to think that Cashner who is younger and has the bigger arm will get a crack at the role, but Thayer is there to pick up the pieces in the even that Cashner struggles.

By Ray Flowers

A Look Back at 2011 – Pitching

Today I’m just going to fly all over the place and randomly hit on some numbers that speak to me from the 2011 season. You know me, I’m random as all hell anyway, so this may not be any different than normal despite the intro warning you of the impending zaniness. Special thanks goes to the 2012 Bill James Handbook where a fair amount of the information you are about to read about comes from (I would highly recommend the book for those of you looking for a nice reference tool. Looking at my shelf I’ve got copies dating all the way back to 2001).

0 – The number of NL hurlers who received six runs of support per nine innings (the NL leader amongst qualifiers, 162 innings pitched, was Jaime Garcia at 5.92). Over in the Junior Circuit there were five guys who received at least six runs of support – Jon Lester (6.86), Ivan Nova (6.70), Max Scherzer (6.42), Rick Porcello (6.38) and Colby Lewis (6.15) . There was even one guy, Derek Holland, who was over seven runs of support per nine innings. My goodness, he was over seven and a half at 7.64 runs per nine innings, an ungodly number. Wins may not be so easy to come by for Holland in 2012, so keep that in mind on draft day.

.086 – The best batting average in baseball with Runners In Scoring Position (RISP) for a pitcher. Nationals’ reliever extraordinaire Tyler Clippard was the owner of that mark. No other reliever had a mark under .125.

.228 – The OBP of leadoff batters last season against Justin Verlander, the lowest in baseball amongst hurlers who tossed at least 150 innings. Two others allowed less than a quarter of leadoff hitters to reach base in Cole Hamels (.247) and Jordan Zimmerman (.249).

6.1 – The major league leading inherited runner strand rate of the Royals’ Greg Holland. Only one other pitcher in baseball was able to post a mark in the single digits and that was Al Alburquerque’s mark of 9.7 percent. The NL leader was George Sherrill at 10.8 percent.

8 – The number of “tough loses” – defined as a Game Score above 50 when a loss was picked up – by Hiroki Kuroda, David Price and James Shields (there will be more on Game Scores below). That was the highest mark in baseball. At the other end of the spectrum we have “cheap wins,” those outings with a Game Score under 50 while a win was picked up. The leader in that dubious category was Brad Penny with six, one more than the mark of five by John Lackey.

53.1 – The percentage of pitches that were in the strike zone from Cliff Lee, the highest mark in baseball. The only other pitcher who hit the mark more than 50 percent of the time was an unlikely source – knuckleballer R.A. Dickey of the Mets at 51.0 percent.

96 – The best pitched game in baseball last year was Chris Capuano’s effort on the 26th of August if you believe in Game Scores (an invention of Bill James that takes into account everything that a pitcher does on the hill). In that effort Capuano pitched nine shutout innings, allowed just two hits, didn’t walk a batter, and struck out 13 (for more on Capuano see his Player Profile). Ervin Santana’s no-hitter on July 27th gave him a score of 94 while Justin Verlander’s no-hitter from May 7th resulted in a score of 90.

98.0 – The average fastball speed last season of the major league leader (minimum 50 innings pitched). If I gave you 37 guesses I doubt you’d settle on the right name. The most obvious name is Aroldis Chapman, but he came in second at 97.9 mph. The leader was actually the Nationals’ Henry Rodriguez. Chapman did lead baseball with 158 pitches of at least 100 mph, 31 more than Rodriguez.

133 – The most pitches thrown in a game last season by Tim Lincecum. There were two other games over 130-pitches as team continue to monitor pitch counts very closely – Chris Carpenter (132), Roy Halladay (130).

By Ray Flowers

Is Perception Reality?

photo © 2006 Mark A. Vargas | more info (via: Wylio)

You pull on your trunks, slap on your flip flops and head to the beach. It’s sunny outside so the weather must be wonderful. Why wouldn’t you play hooky? However, you get to the beach, grab your Frisbee and set out for your spot on the sand right next to that hottie wearing the black bikini only to realize that though it’s sunny out there that it’s actually about 63 degrees. Come to think of it, there is also about a 18 mph wind blowing. All of a sudden your day of lotion, sun and relaxation just doesn’t look as promising as it did 35 minutes ago when you left your crib.

The point is this – perception isn’t always reality.

In what follows I’ll point out some situations that I’m sure will blow your mind when you realize what you “thought” was going on may not exactly be what is really going on.

Matt Joyce has floundered so much this season that he is on pace for 11 homers and 57 RBI. Whoopee do. However, did you notice that he is hitting .346 on the year or that he is hitting .419 with a 1.210 OPS over the last two weeks?

Ian Kennedy started the year slowly and that makes you think his effort in 2010 was a bit fluky, right? If you thought that you would have missed out on the fact that over his last three starts he is 2-0 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.73 WHIP.

Jed Lowrie is hitting a robust .350 on the year and has been a terrific find thus far (we would all agree). Still, were you aware that over the past two weeks that Lowrie was hitting all of .267 with a .277 OBP in 45 at-bats? Or how about this. Lowrie has no homers and one RBI in his last 10 games. So much for him being the savior, right?

Brad Penny stinks and there is just no need to pay any attention to him. After all, he has seven walks and allowed 12 earned runs over his first two starts of the year. Well, of late he has looked like an All-Star with a 1.80 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and a 3.20 K/BB ratio over his last three starts

Juan Rivera is hitting only .212 on the year and has been a massive disappointment for the Jays, right? Not so fast. Rivera is actually hitting pretty well right now with a .317 mark over the past two weeks during which time his OPS has been a strong .905.

Troy Tulowitzki bashed seven homers with 14 RBI in his first 12 games and was looking like the NL MVP. Since then he has gone deep, uh, not a single time in 15 games. He only has three RBI in those 15 contests as well. He’s also hit .225 with a .569 OPS over his last 40 at-bats.

I think you get the point.

We are talking about a handful of at-bats or starts with players, and that just isn’t enough data to paint an accurate portrait in most cases. As humans who have busy lives we’ve learned to draw conclusions based upon the data presented to us. If that snap shot was ‘Troy Tulowitzki is mashing the ball as well as any shortstop in the history of baseball” it’s most likely how you stereotyped him for the 2011 season. Maybe that will end up being the case and you’ll be right, but even with that hot start of his the truth is that over the last two weeks there are 20 shortstops who have have produced more fantasy value. Don’t mistake me here, I’m not saying that I have any doubt in Tulo’s greatness, my point is that it’s a long season and before you go formulating an opinion on players make sure that you have enough data at your disposal to make that call.

Now where is my SPF 30?

By Ray Flowers

The Stange Case of Rafael Soriano

Rafael Soriano is still looking for work. There is no telling what his agent Scott Boras is asking for – my guess is that he is telling everyone that Soriano is the second best closer in baseball history behind Mariano Rivera – but the fire-balling righty is still looking for a job. Reports this week were that he would considering serving as the setup man for Rivera with the Yankees, but the Yanks quickly shot down that rumor and said they weren’t interested in dropping a ton of dough for a setup man (could that change if Andy Pettitte officially retires?). So where will Soriano end end? There aren’t too many openings to fill 9th inning roles left vacant, so perhaps Soriano will have to settle for a smaller money deal, something that seemed unlikely a few weeks back when guys like Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier were getting 3-year deals. Has Mr. Boras finally failed one of his clients? You should know better than to doubt Mr. Boras at this point.

The real reason for the reluctance of teams to shed out major dinero for Soriano must be tied to his awful record of health since he has kept many a trainer/doctor in business over the years with a plethora of arm issues constantly slowing him down. Here are his innings pitched totals since he reached the big leagues.

47.1
53.0
3.1
7.1
60.0
72.0
14.0
75.2
62.1

Let me sum that up for you. In three of last eight seasons Soriano didn’t even toss 15 innings. Would you be comfortable giving a guy like that $10 million a year? Me neither. At the same time, Soriano has tossed 60-innings in back-to-back seasons for the second time (the first was in 2006-07), though it’s not as if he has been 100 percent healthy in that time. The fact of the matter is that all pitchers are at risk with every toss, though Soriano is clearly much more likely to come down with some ailment than your average hurler.

All of Soriano’s injuries have obscured the fact that he is an absolutely dynamic pill tosser. Check out his career numbers. They are scintillating.

2.73 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 9.62 K/9, 3.58 K/BB, .193 BAA

You think those numbers are great? They are, but his 2010 effort made even those strong totals look average.

1.73 ERA, 0.80 WHIP, 8.23 K/9, 4.07 K/BB, .163 BAA

Wow is right.

I didn’t even mention that Soriano racked up a career best 45 saves to lead the AL (he entered the year with 43 career saves). Soriano also posted the fourth best ERA in baseball for any hurler with at least 60-innings pitched while his WHIP was second (Joaquin Benoit was first at 0.68). That’s some serious dealing folks.

Someone is going to end up with one hell of a reliever. The only question is will he be able to stay healthy long enough to reward that team for their investment in his golden arm?

All Free Agent Team

I’m scheduled to visit with Jeff Rickard on Saturday around 11 AM PST on MLB Network Radio to talk free agents. We’re actually going to discuss whether or not you could put together a fantasy worthy team of players still looking to find a home for 2011 (i.e. they are free agents). Here is my all free agent fantasy team.

C: Bengie Molina
1B: Russell Branyan
2B: Adam Kennedy
3B: Jorge Cantu
SS: Orlando Cabrera
OF: Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero, Johnny Damon
DH: Jim Thome
SP: Andy Pettitte, Carl Pavano, Bruce Chen, Kevin Millwood, Freddy Garcia, Brad Penny, Chris Young
RP: Mr. Soriano of course, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Chad Qualls

It’s not exactly a powerhouse team that would win any leagues, but I’ve also seen people put together worse teams.

By Ray Flowers

Winter Meetings Update

I love the Winter Meetings. In fact, I’ve combined the event with Twitter to form a duo kind of like peanut butter and jelly. I admit it. I’m addicted now. I wake up in the middle of the night thinking ‘I’m sure the readers would love to hear that thought.’ Don’t worry, I keep a pad by my bed to write down the thoughts that hit me when most of the U.S. is counting candy canes in their sleep.

* Still reeling over the Three-team Blockbuster Deal between the Tigers, Yankees and D’backs? You can read my breakdown of the deal by clicking on the link, but there is still something I don’t get – why did the D’backs enter this deal as the third team? I think they will rue the day that they let Max Scherzer go for Edwin Jackson. Maybe I’m wrong here, but honestly, I have a hard time believing that. Whether Scherzer is a top of the rotation arm, or a closer (a potential given his somewhat violent delivery), as long as his arm doesn’t fly off I see this kid being something special.

* John Lackey is regarded by all as the top free agent hurler on the market. However, it doesn’t seem likely that anyone is going to fall all over themselves to throw $100 million his way. In fact, he might have to wait a bit and hope someone gets a bit desperate to hit that figure.

* I wrote yesterday how I thought it was a ruse that Rafael Soriano would accept the Braves arbitration offer in What a Great Monday. Turns out I’ve got that proverbial egg on my face as he did just that. As a result, the Braves are facing the prospect of having to trade Soriano or spend roughly a fifth of their entire payroll on Soriano, Billy Wagner and Takashi Saito. Soriano has already submitted a group of teams he would like to join with one possible destination being the Orioles who have already mentioned their intention to acquire a closer.

Have heard barely a peep dealing with Matt Holliday. The other big bopper, Jason Bay, appears to be on the short list for teams such as the Red Sox, Mariners and Angels, the club from Anaheim emerging in the last 24 hours as a potentially serious player.

I’m still completely blown away by the Cardinals give Brad Penny $7.5 million with incentives that could take the deal to $9 million. My question is a simple one – why?

If Ivan Rodriguez can get a 2-year deal for $6 million from the Nationals to be a part-timer, why are people freaking that Jason Kendall wants $5 to be a full-time starter? In an odd twist, he might get that starting role by joining Pudge’s old club, the Rangers.

Why are the Brewers looking to trade Corey Hart? Here is a direct quote from my Twitter page. “The Brewers seem intent on moving Corey Hart, though I don’t really know why. Haven’t they heard adage – buy low, sell high?”

Milton Bradley continues to have his name involved in more rumors than just about anyone else. Guess teams are really interested in adding a guy who can’t stay healthy, wears out his welcome in about four months, and constantly torments fans and teammates with his off putting attitude. Only in America can a guy like that make more money in a year, over $10 million, than 99 percent of us will make in our entire lives.

The Giants have been linked to names like Adrian Beltre, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Nick Johnson and Orlando Hudson. The club would prefer to have Pablo Sandoval to play third, but he could easily slide over to first if a third baseman is brought to town. The club could also move Freddy Sanchez over to third if they were to sign a second baseman like Hudson, but a year after struggling for any pop, do they really want a third baseman who is likely to hit about 10 bombs in Sanchez?

By Ray Flowers

Penny For My Thoughts

I don’t like Brad Penny. I dislike his attitude, I dislike his game, and he was a Dodger so I really dislike him. However, I’m willing to suspend all of that now that he has signed a deal to join the Giants for the stretch run (the Red Sox signed him to a 1-year, $5 million deal meaning that the Giants were able to sign him for the prorated major league minimum of $400,000 meaning they will owe him less than $100,000 for the rest of the season). Yes, I know I’m fickle too, so you don’t need to worry about bringing that up.

The Giants were supposed to have poor hitting and great pitching in 2009, and boy have they ever done their best to live up to that preseason prediction.

The pitching staff is second in the NL in ERA (3.55) and WHIP (1.28) while leading the Senior Circuit in strikeouts (1,038).

The offense is eighth in batting average (.260), 15th in home runs (94), 14th in RBI (498), 13th in runs (530) and 15th in OBP (.311).

Obviously those numbers scream out ‘add a power-bat,’ or three, but with none available the Giants did the prudent thing and decided to add Penny to the starting rotation mix. Will he be an improvement over what they have? He better be.

When Randy Johnson went down with a shoulder injury, the team was left scrambling for another arm to add to the rotation. First they tried Ryan Sadowski, and after some initial success the tide changed quickly, and as a result he was demoted with a 4.45 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and 1.00 K/BB mark over six starts. The club then gave Joe Martinez a shot. He too looked good at the start but he has been bombed for 13 earned runs in his last two starts so he was demoted with a 7.52 ERA and 1.94 WHIP over his seven appearances. Therefore, it’s not like Brad Penny has to be any better than he has been for most of this season to be an improvement given his 5.61 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 24 starts with the Red Sox. Alas, he has been bombed in his last seven starts with a 7.82 ERA and 1.66 WHIP over 38 innings, so it looks like he will fit right in with what the Giants have been getting from their fifth rotation spot.

Is there any reason that the Giants should be happy about the move besides the fact that they added a veteran arm in addition to keeping him away from signing with another squad?

(1) Penny has thrown his average fastball at 94 mph this season, the fastest he has thrown his fastball over the past eight seasons.

(2) His walk rate of 2.87 per nine innings is slightly below his career 2.92 mark and his best mark in three years.

(3) He has struck out 6.08 batters per nine innings. That’s nothing to be proud of, but when you are coming off back-to-back seasons of 5.84 and 4.85 punchouts outs per nine, at least it’s a minor improvement.

(4) Despite allowing a 19 percent line drive rate, his best mark since 2004, Penny is currently sporting a career worst .336 BABIP. Seems like some correction is likely in the cards here, a position that is further buttressed by the fact that his .301 BAA is some .034 points above his career mark. When this occurs his performance should normalize, at least somewhat.

To sum up the Penny signing, this is a good move given who the Giants had been running out there in their fifth rotation spot. This is also a good move for the club given that Penny is an experienced arm who appears to be healthy, even if his performance hasn’t been remotely impressive of late. I don’t think this signing will return Penny to the realm of importance in standard mixed leagues, but then again Penny, who is a former Dodger, will certainly be motivated to stick it to his former squad, one that he didn’t exactly part with on positive terms at the end of last season. I still don’t like the guy, but for the next two months I’ll be cheering my head off for him – especially if he sticks it to the Dodgers which could erase all the negative thoughts I’ve ever had about the man.

By Ray Flowers

Injuries Are Part of the Game

Another day, another top fantasy option has come down with an injury. In fact, you were almost as likely to take a player who has spent time on the DL or on the bench this year with your first round pick as you were likely to draft a healthy player. Just look at how many of the top-15 options heading into the year have dealt with injury.

Miguel Cabrera tweaked a hamstring on Thursday and will be held out of the lineup on Friday though word is that he might be able to pinch-hit if needed. No Cabrera owner can be too upset since their man has hit .354 with 10 home runs, 38 RBI and 34 runs scored so far this season – provided this doesn’t become a DL-type thing.

Hanley Ramirez: He has battled through a variety of injuries all year, and though he is hitting a robust .342, he has only eight home runs and eight steals on the year.

Jose Reyes: The latest news says that his injured calf is now an injured right hamstring tendon. Whether or not that is the same injury and the Mets have kept it under wraps is unknown, but the bottom line is that he is on the DL and the New York Post is reporting that he could miss up to six weeks with the injury. He was hitting only .279 with 11 steals in just 36 games, woeful production for a top-5 pick.

Ryan Braun: Like Hanley, Braun continues to play through a variety of bumps and bruises. Still, he has produced hitting .316 with 10 home runs and 34 RBI, though that pace leaves him barely on pace to produce his third straight 30-100 season. He has only gone deep twice in 19 games which leads me to think he physically ain’t right.

Grady Sizemore: Dude has been lost all year, and now we know why – his elbow is jacked up. Grady hasn’t had surgery on his elbow yet, but it looks like it might be required despite the fact that an MRI didn’t show any structural damage. Sizemore has gone 20/20 in 4-straight year and he could still reach that level since he has nine home runs and seven steals so far provided he doesn’t go under the knife, but his .223 average and .726 OPS show just how awful he has been.

Alex Rodriguez: Had hip surgery and as a result didn’t take the field until May 8th. He is only hitting .250 and doesn’t have a single steal, but he has gone deep seven times with 22 RBI in 26 games.

Josh Hamilton: Like Sizemore, Hamilton may need surgery to fix what ails him. Hamilton is currently on the DL with a strained abdominal muscle. He could be back in two weeks, or he could miss up to two months if he needs surgery. He was hitting only .240 with a .746 OPS though he had drive in 24 runs in 35 games.

Here are some further notes of interest on Friday…

David Ortiz is having his eyes checked since he reported having dry eyes of late. You would think that someone would have checked out his vision a long while ago given his putrid work at the dish this year which includes a .187 average and one home run through 187 ABs. Perhaps some new spectacles will help?

J.J. Putz will be on the shelf for an estimated two months, possibly more, as he will have his elbow operated on to clean some things up. If he comes back as expected, and the team is able to get Billy Wagner back as well, no one will want to face the Mets in September if they can go Putz-Wagner-Francisco Rodriguez in the 7-8-9 innings. I know I wouldn’t.

Brad Penny apparently is on the Braves radar as they look to add some pitching depth. First off, the Red Sox would likely entertain the idea of moving Penny since John Smoltz appears on the cusp or a return to the rotation. The Sox also have Justin Masterson who can start if needed, and don’t forget about Clay Buchholz who continues to toil away in Triple-A simply dominating hitters with his filthy stuff to the tune of a 4-0 record with a 1.74 ERA, 0.76 WHIP and a 4.75 K/BB mark. If you ask me, Penny is the worst option out of those four, so why not move him? If the Braves wanted to add a veteran arm, why didn’t they just hold on to Tom Glavine? For his part, Penny is a very deceiving 5-1 this season thanks to a ton of run support as he has posted a 5.63 ERA, 1.60 WHIP, 5.63 K/9 and a 2.00 K/BB. My disdain for Penny is well chronicled going back a couple of seasons, and nothing I have seen from him this season has changed my mind one bit.

Oh, and one last note. Kyle Elfrink, my co-host on the Fantasy Buffet, our Monday through Friday podcast at Fanball.com, recently did a 1-on-1 interview with the Jets’ running back Leon Washington. Listen for that interview on Monday during the 11AM-12PM time slot that we do the show. You can access the interview at the link posted above on Monday.

By Ray Flowers