A’s Astounding Bullpen

I know most people don’t pay close attention to baseball on the west coast, at least until the Giants won the World Series last season, but there is actually another club in the Bay Area that has, rather quietly, been working through a major transformation this offseason.

The Oakland A’s have bolstered their team in a myriad of ways. On offense they added David DeJesus, Josh Willingham and Hideki Matsui (you can read about the addition of DeJesus in Four in One, Josh Willingham in Hot Stove: Signings Galore, and Matsui in Hot Stove: Lee Isn’t Only Newsmaker). That’s a pretty nice upgrade on offense for the club, but it’s what they have done to bolster their bullpen that is at the center of my work today.

From the 7th inning on last year, the A’s had the 2nd best ERA in the AL just 0.13 behind the Rays’ 3.06 mark), and they were also very tough to hit allowing just 405 hits, two behind the AL leaders the Rays and Yankees (don’t neglect to realize that the A’s also led the AL in overall ERA at 3.65 and in shutouts with 17). Let’s go through the parts of what could be the best pen in the AL, and perhaps all of baseball, in 2011.

It all starts with the closer, Andrew Bailey. He had surgery on his elbow in September but should be 100 percent by the times the games count. The start Bailey has had to his career is historic. You can read about the history he has made in Top-20 RPs for 2011.

The team retained sidewinder Brad Ziegler on a 1-year, $1.25 million to avoid arbitration. It’s somewhat fair to suggest that he is a gimmick hurler, but at the same time he has a 2.51 ERA and a 2.79 GB/FB ratio over 193.2 innings pitched. He is an excellent setup man who keeps the ball on the ground and avoids the big inning.

The A’s surprised many by signing fireballer Grant Balfour to serve as the 8th inning bridge to Bailey (Balfour was given a 2-year deal for $8.1 million). I already broke down Balfour in Hot Stove: Rumor Mill, Dec.29, but here is a quick recap – Balfour throws hard, strikes out a ton of batters, and is almost impossible to square up consistently if you have a bat in your hands.

So the A’s were set then, right? Not quite. They surprisingly swooped in and added another top flight arm to their bullpen in Brian Fuentes whom they agreed to a 2-year deal with (no dollar figures are known yet, but it’s been rumored to be a deal for as much as $12 million which seems high to me, but we’ll have to see). I wrote about Fuentes about a week ago in Signings and Strategy where I laid out the case that this guy is still a high level reliever despite the perception in some circles that he is no longer a strong late inning option.

The A’s didn’t sign Carl Crawford or trade for Adrian Gonzalez, but the accumulation of their “small” deals has greatly improved a club that could sneak up on many in the 2011 season.

By Ray Flowers

Debate Anyone?

Today I’ll hit on a couple of options for the AL Rookie of the Year, discuss a pitcher who is slowly fading, and then discuss which of two top-flight options I would choose to hold on to for the 2010 season.

Elvis Andrus has had a wonderful season for the Rangers, but please, stop the Rookie of the Year talk. Andrus is hitting .267 with a .325 OBP, and both those numbers are below average for an AL player. Plus, he has no pop at the dish with six homer and 34 RBI, and though he plays a tough position (shortstop), his 22 errors are tied with Orlando Cabrera’s total for the worst mark in the American League. If I’m making the call, and face it they would never let me because I would actually make a rationally, cogent argument based on a foundation of data and not merely some asinine arbitrary argument that others will use, the answer is Andrew Bailey of the A’s. When Joey Devine went down with elbow surgery, and Brad Ziegler struggled, Bailey was thrust into the closers role in Oakland, and he has performed spectacularly: 6-3, 1.93 ERA, 0.91 WHIP with a 9.87 K/9 mark and 25 saves. In addition, he has blown only four chances this season, and he has been as good in the second half (1.95 ERA, 0.80 WHIP) as the first half (1.92 ERA, 0.97 WHIP). That’s good stuff my friends.

Scott Feldman gave up seven runs while recording just 10 outs against the A’s on Thursday to drop to 17-6 while seeing his ERA increase to 3.90. This is the second time in three outings that he has allowed at least six earned runs in an outing, and the second time in those three starts that he was saddled with a loss, this after seven straight victories. I’m amazed he has hung on this long. He has no strikeout potential, he pitches for the Rangers, and he owned a 4.97 ERA and 1.48 ERA in 241 innings coming into the year.

I write a piece every week entitled Taking Sides, and there was one battle I didn’t get to there that I thought I would touch on here (the basic idea is to choose which player would I prefer to have on my squad in 2010).

Matt Holliday: .312-24-104-91-14 in 554 ABs
Ryan Braun: .315-29-103-105-16 in 588 ABs

Matt Holliday was hitting .286 with 11 homers and 54 RBI in 93 games with the A’s this season, and the only thing he was doing at previous levels was stealing bases (he had 12). Flash forward a couple of months, and lo and behold Holliday is back to being a stud. In just 55 games with the Cards Holliday has 13 homer and 50 RBI basically matching his A’s totals in 38 fewer games. He has also hit a blistering .356 in the NL. Seems like St. Louis suits him. All told, He is just nine runs from his fourth straight 100 effort, and he has now gone over 100 RBI in three of four years while his .312 batting average is just six points below his career mark.

Braun is a stud in his own right. In just three seasons Braun has hit at least .285 with at least 29 homers, 97 RBI, 91 runs and 14 steals in every season. This year he has walked a career-high 56 times leading to a .384 OBP, a career best, which has helped to offset his three year low of .541 in the SLG department (still a strong mark). Oh, and don’t even think about pitching to him if you are left-handed, he simply demolishes those guys: .414/.496/.766 in 111 at-bats. That’s ripping it up. What makes him an intriguing play is the fact that he has swiped at least 14 bags in each of his three big league seasons (his rookie season was just 118 games by the way).

Whose Side?: If Holliday stays in St. Louis, he is a free agent, I would be greatly intrigued at the potential of holding on to Holliday. However, until the time that he is locked up by the Redbirds, the choice here has to be Braun who has been about as consistent as any player in baseball in his first three seasons in the show (my apologies to Albert Pujols).

By Ray Flowers

At What Cost?

Every team needs saves. Some take the chance on draft day and roster “locks” like Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan, while others take the chance on guys with good skills that have yet to prove themselves (names like Frank Francisco, Joey Devine and Chad Qualls). Others wait to roster closer off of the waiver-wire knowing full well that saves can be had, in standard 12 team leagues, virtually all season via free agency. In fact, according to our friends at Baseball HQ, roughly 1/3 to ½ of all closers who open the year as their teams top ninth inning ace failed to return even 50% of their draft day value by seasons end (that means if you spent $20 on a reliever he would be just as likely to earn $20 as he would be to earn $10 or less in production). Think that’s off the mark? Just look at names that little last years save leaders and think back as to how many of these guys could have been had off waivers in the month of April, 2008.

George Sherrill- 31 saves
Salomon Torres- 28
Ryan Franklin- 17
Fernando Rodney-13
Dan Wheeler- 13
Jensen Lewis- 13
Brad Ziegler- 11

My bet is that every one of those guys were available in your league last April.

The point is that guys with saves can certain be found on waivers, in fact early season breakout candidates in this realm include the likes of Ryan Franklin (seven), and Fernando Rodney (six). The question becomes, how much do you spend on guys if you are in a league that uses free agent acquisition budget’s (FAAB) and your are looking at in season moves? Here are my thoughts on the four biggest names that were likely picked up weekend.

LaTroy Hawkins, Astros
With Jose Valverde likely to miss at least four weeks with a calf injury, Hawkins will likely hold down the ninth inning for the Astros, and this position was further enhanced when Doug Brocail was forced to the DL with a hamstring injury. Hawkins hasn’t recorded double-digit saves since 2004 and he has just 10 saves and 20 blown saves in that time. In fact, since 2005 Hawkins has a 3.87 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and a 5.77 K/9 mark. That’s league average across the board, but at least you know you should get a month of save chances out of him.
VALUE: Medium

Joe Beimel, Nationals
Julian Tavarez is also in the mix for saves, and Beimel is actually in the minors right now on a rehab assignment for a left hip flexor strain (he hopes to be back this week). Beimel has appeared in 224 games since the start of the 2006 season, and in that time he has only thrown 193.2 innings as more often than not he wasn’t asked to face right-handed batters. In this time frame he also owns a 4.83 K/89 mark and a 1.55 K/BB rate, terrible numbers for a reliever and putrid for a closer. He will likely get a few saves, but I just can’t see him being the answer as Joel Hanrahan certainly should get a shot to reclaim his lost job at some point.
VALUE: Low

Ryan Madson, Phillies
Only a closer if Brad Lidge is out with injury. There are concerns with Lidge’s knee, but Madson is clearly the second option even though at this point his ability to accrue saves is nil. Still, Madson is a fine addition given that his fastball has gained three mph this season (94.6) leading to a huge boost in his K/9 mark (13.09) while working with a tremendous 1.83 G/F ratio. If Lidge goes down, still a possibility, Madson gains a ton of value.
VALUE: Medium

Michael Wuertz, Athletics
Joey Devine is out for the year. Brad Ziegler is missing time with an illness. Santiago Casilla is on the DL with a calf strain. That means Wuertz has picked up a couple of saves while sporting a solid 8.56 K/9 marl and a scintillating 6.50 K/BB. Don’t expect it to continue as his control has never been remotely this good (2.18 K/BB career). When Ziegler and Casilla are healthy look for Wuertz to be nothing more than a solid middle reliever option, especially with Andrew Bailey also pitching lights out (1.53 ERA, 0.74 WHIP, 20 K in 17.2 IP).
VALUE: Low

The bottom line is that saves are available and will continue to be on there on waivers through the course of the season. Just make sure you invest wisely so as to avoid picking up a handful of saves while imploding your ratios.

By Ray Flowers