2012 Positional Review – Relief Pitchers: Misses

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

STARTING PITCHER – HITS

STARTING PITCHER – MISSES

RELIEF PITCHER: HITS

RELIEF PITCHER: MISSES

Do I really have to do this? I’m going to look like a buffoon listing all the misses. At least misery has some company here as pretty much every other preseason rankings list you will look at will be filled with just as many, more if I may be fair, misses as injuries an ineffectiveness killed the position this year. Never seen anything like it actually.

Players who were injured:

(#4) Mariano Rivera
(#7) Brian Wilson
(#9) Andrew Bailey
(#10) Sergio Santos
(#13) Drew Storen
(#25) Kyle Farnsworth

This group of arms threw a total of 88 innings in 2012. Last year that six-some saved a total of 202 games, an average of 34 per man. This year they totaled 18 saves.

Just plain misses:

Heath Bell (#8): I should have listened to myself when I was ranking relievers. Here is a direct quote from my Player Profile for Heath Bell writing on December 19, 2011. “Did the Marlins solidify the 9th inning or did they add a slightly overweight, skill deteriorating righty who might be a mighty expensive setup man by the end of the contract?… there are enough cracks in the armor here that you should be wary of Bell having yet another stupendous season… but his days as an elite closer are likely much closer to the end of the story than the introduction.” Shame on me for not trusting, well, myself.

Brandon League (#14): He lost his closing job with the Mariners and was eventually dealt to the Dodgers as he fell from 37 saves to a mere 15. His walk rate exploded causing his K/BB ratio to fall from 4.50 in ’11 to 1.64 in ’12, and that was a huge reason his effort tanked, not to mention that his GB/FB ratio, while damn impressive at 2.19, was well below his 2.80 career rate. Looks like the Dodgers are planning on him being their closer after giving him more than $22 million for three years. Sorry Kenley Jansen, who apparently has lost the gig despite being the second most dominating pitcher in baseball the past two years (Craig Kimbrel).

Jordan Walden (#19): The Angels always have a strong closer, so it was fair to think Walden would fill that role given that he saved 32 games in 34 chances in 2011. Walden finished 2012 with one save as he never rebounded from a slow start an injury. His 11.08 K/9 mark was impressive and he actually upped his K/BB ratio from 2.58 to 2.67 despite his failings in 2012. By the by, Ernesto Frieri was the dominating Angels’ arm as he had 23 saves, a 2.32 ERA, 0.98 WHIP an a 13.36 K/9 mark over 66 innings (11.2 of those innings were with the Padres).

Jim Johnson (#32): The major league leader with 51 saves, only the thirteenth 50-save season in baseball history. I can rest comfortably knowing no other expert worth a salt had Johnson ranked much higher than I did. Johnson actually had three year lows in K/9 (5.37) and K/BB (2.73), but thanks to some luck and a massive 2.93 GB/FB ratio he just got batters out. Don’t expect a repeat in 2013.

Mark Melancon (#40): Ghastly. Putrid. Pathetic. Choose your adjective. Melancon was hideous in April allowing five homers and 11 runs in his first four outings (49.50 ERA, 6.00 WHIP). He actually pitched  better later in the year posting 28 Ks an a 1.18 WHIP over his last 29.2 innings, but the damage was already done. At least I was right about Alfredo Aceves (see his multiple blow ups, 10 loses and eight blown saves).

Rafael Soriano (#59): I was the conductor of the David Robertson train this year, and he performed very well (2.67 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 12.02 K/9). After Rivera was hurt Robertson was installed as the Yankees’ closer. Unfortunately, an injury then also struck Robertson opening up the door for Soriano. Rafael not only stayed healthy throwing 67.2 innings, he also performed as if he was channeling Rivera with a 2.26 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 42 saves in 46 chances. If only Robertson hadn’t gotten hurt…

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 5, 2012

(1) Ryan Vogelsong struggling for Giants.

(2) Kenley Jansen to return in September.

(3) Zack Greinke finally finding his groove with Angels.

(4) Andrew McCutchen back on track. Can he hold off Melky Cabrera?

(5) Adam LaRoche big time run producer.

(6) Jesus Montero solid in 2nd half.

(7) Alfonso Soriano powering the ball.

(8) Mark Reynolds also powering the ball.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

Who should you be playing Friday and Saturday? In addition to that info, I’ll hit on a few of the relevant stories in the game as well.

The Dodgers, to the frustration of everyone, will use Ronald Belisario and Brandon League in the 9th inning with Kenley Jansen (heart) on the sidelines. Way to clarify that situation for us Mr. Mattingly. I’d favor Belisario, 60/40, for 9th inning work. Also, Chad Billingsley will have platlet-rich plasma injections in his elbow in the hopes that it will help him return before the end of the season. It may, or may not, get him back out on the field this season.

The Giants plan on getting Joaquin Arias more time on the field. Good idea Giants. Arias is hitting .429 with 15 RBIs in just 56 at-bats in the month of August (that average leads baseball by the way). He’s not a great hitter, not even close, but he’s rolling right now making him a wonderful NL-only option at the moment.

Carlos Pena has been told his playing time will be cut. Shocker. When you’re hitting .188 with just 16 homers you should have your playing time reduced. Looks like Jeff Keppinger will get more time at first base against left-handed pitchers. Seems like a good thing since, oh, Keppinger thinks he’s Ted Williams against lefties this year as he’s hitting .411 with a 1.005 OPS through 90 at-bats.

Alex Rodriguez (hand) could return from the DL as early as Monday. Hand/wrist injuries traditionally sap the power of batters a wee bit, so it would be wise not to expect him to have some massive month of September, but at least he might have a month to help out fantasy squads.

Josh Vitters has failed, miserably, to do anything for the Cubs. He’s been awful at the plate going 5-for-54. That’s less than a .100 batting average folks (.093). The team doesn’t want the youngster to think he’s the worst player of all-time, so they are going to manage his workload moving forward. That’s code for they are going to bench him an awful lot. Hard to believe, but Luis Valbuena appears likely to get an awful lot of work at the hot corner (that’s not code – you want to add Valbuena in NL-only leagues if he is available, even if he can’t really hit either: .227/.319/.384 in 920 career at-bats. Maybe that’s why no one has bothered to add him to their team at Fleaflicker). Speaking of youngsters, Brett Jackson’s numbers are still poor – .216 average and 37 Ks in 74 at-bats (to state it differently, he’s striking out in literally half his at-bats) – but unlikely Vitters there seems to be some short-term hope. Jackson has been a highly effective offensive performer over his last seven games with three homers, six RBIs and six runs scored. At least one of the Cubs’ youngsters is showing something.

HITTERS FOR FRIDAY

Stephen Drew vs. Aaron Cook: .342 in 38 at-bats
Jonny Gomes vs. Aaron Cook: .500-3-6 in 14 at-bats
Torii Hunter vs. Kevin Millwood: .405-2-13 in 42 at-bats
Dan Uggla vs. Roy Halladay: .355-3-7 in 31 at-bats
Chris Young vs. Aaron Harang: .316-3-5 in 19 at-bats

HITTERS FOR SATURDAY

Aaron Hill vs. Josh BeckettL .412-1-8 in 34 at-bats
Ryan Howard vs. Tim Hudson: .344-7-17 in 61 at-bats
Adam Lind vs. Jeff Niemann: .448-3-9 in 29 at-bats
Joe Mauer vs. Luke Hochevar: .500-1-3 in 26 at-bats
A.J. Pierzynski vs. Max Scherzer: .385-1-5 in 26 at-bats

PITCHERS FOR FRIDAY

Dan Haren vs. Mariners: 11-6, 2.69 ERA in his career.
Hiroki Kuroda: 8-straight starts 3 or fewer ERs (11 ERs total).
Adam Wainwright vs. Nats: 6-0 with a 1.80 ERA last seven starts this year.

PITCHERS FOR SATURDAY

Homer Bailey vs. Astros: 4-0, 1.33 ERA vs. ‘Stros. Club hitting .225 since All-Star Break.
Kyle Lohse vs. Nats: 5-0, 2.34 ERA, 1.08 WHIP over last nine starts
Max Scherzer vs. W.Sox: 2.85 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 81 Ks in 75.2 IP vs. W.Sox.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

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(Sign up for free, win cash)

CRUSADER LEAGUES
(New team each week all season)

GLADIATOR LEAGUES
(Eliminator Tournament)

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August30, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you drop Drew Stubbs for Trevor Plouffe? It’s almost playoff time, and Stubbs can get ice cold as he is now.
– @joe_joe_a_go_go

Before we go bashing Stubbs, let’s not overlook what Plouffe has done, or better yet not done, of late.

Plouffe has had quite a season. In June he went deep 11 times. He also hit 14 homers in a 29 game stretch at one point. Still, he’s not exactly been Mr. Consistent. He went deep Wednesday night, his first homer since July 3rd, a span of 28 games. Plouffe also hasn’t stolen a single base this season. Plouffe is hitting .242, .017 points below the league average. Plouffe has a .312 OBP, nine points below the league average. Plouffe is also hitting .169 with a .468 OPS in August. So before we go and canonize Plouffe, let’s make sure we realize (A) who he actually is and (B) that he has been dreadful for the last month.

Stubbs hasn’t been much better of late as there is no disputing that fact as he too hasn’t reached the Mendoza Line in August. Still, he has a slightly better batting average (.187) and OPS (.486) than Plouffe. He also has the same amount of homers, one, has scored three times as many runs (14 to five), and has killed Plouffe, destroyed him, with those massively relevant six steals.

Stubbs certainly has his faults, but the only way I would drop him in favor of Plouffe was if I desperately needed help at third or shortstop, but even then I’d be reluctant to drop Stubbs since his speed would likely make more of a difference over the final month than the power potential of Plouffe.

Tommy Hanson worth owning anymore?
– @thatkidslim

Hanson has been battling shoulder woes all year. His fastball velocity is down two mph, and at times he has had had a lot of trouble throwing strikes (his walk rate per nine is up nearly three quarters of a point from his career average at 2.88). He’s still striking out his share of batters though, his 8.00 K/9 mark is strong, but after two years with a K/BB ratio over 3.00 the mark is down a full point this year to 2.07, well below the league average (2.47). When you add into that diminished ratio a league average GB/FB (1.04), a slightly elevated HR/9 (1.27) and a league average 19.8 percent line drive rate, you get basically a league average pitcher. Unfortunately, it’s a bit worse than that. He does have 12 victories, but those ratios aren’t helping anyone (4.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). He’s also been pretty darn bad over his last six outings with a 6.82 ERA and 2.01 WHIP.

I don’t know the size of your league, or who you would replace him with, but it’s certainly worth investigating moving on, potentially for one of the two pitchers I’m about to discus…

Who is the better add Chris Tillman or Brett Anderson?
– @Derrickmartin

Tillman has been a star for the Orioles. In eight of 10 outings this season he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs, and if you remove those two rough outings his ERA would be 2.44 and his WHIP 1.01. Still, history says you should be very wary of Tillman. Over his first three seasons with the Orioles, 2009-11, he made 36 starts. Tillman went 7-15 with a 5.58 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, a 5.78 K/9 an a 1.45 K/BB ratio. Those are awful numbers. Now it’s not that he is without talent, and most around baseball have been surprised that he had been unable to make the necessary adjustments. Has he made those adjustments this season? To this point the answer is an emphatic yes. His K/9 rate is up to 7.29, his walk rate at a career best, and the resulting 2.47 K/BB ratio is a massive step forward. At the same time it’s a league average number, as is his K/9 and his GB/FB (1.03). He’s also working with a career worst line drive rate (23.0 percent) that has somehow led to a career best .254 BABIP (career .294). His 3.26 ERA really should be a run higher, and given his track record in the bigs, it’s hard to think he will be able to keep up his current pace.

Anderson has been elite since returning from Tommy John Surgery. In two starts he’s won two games while allowing one run for the Athletics. Talk about hitting the ground running. Just like with Tillman, there’s no way the current trend will continue with Anderson. The difference between the two is twofold. (1) Anderson has had more success in the big leagues. (2) He’s a more highly skilled pitcher. Anderson has made 64 starts in the big leagues resulting in a 3.55 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Tillman has only pitched at that level for two months. Anderson also sports a 3.16 K/BB ratio for his career, which when coupled with his 1.84 GB/FB ratio marks Anderson as an arm every fantasy squad would want to own – provided his arm was healthy.

I’d go with Anderson. Tillman has the advantage in that he’s been healthy all year and isn’t coming back from elbow surgery, but Anderson is the more highly skilled and the more effective hurler. Just hope the A’s don’t limit his workload because he’s just a year removed from the surgery.

Saves aren’t an issue for me, but K/9 is. Should I drop Kenley Jansen or wait and see?
– @LKrukowski

Jansen has had a recurrence of his heart issue, one that kept him out of action for a month last season. The Dodgers haven’t said that they expect Jansen to miss a month this time, but obviously one has to question whether or not Jansen will be able to return this season as he’s been termed to be out “indefinitely.” Who will the Dodgers turn to in the 9th inning in the meantime? Ronald Belisario converted the Dodgers last save chance, and he has been great this year with a 2.84 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 47 Ks in 50.2 innings. On the flip side he has all of three saves in his career. He’s likely the lead horse in the race right now though. Brandon League, who had 37 saves last season for the Mariners, could also be in the mix. Though he has struggled since being dealt to the Dodgers with a 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 11 outings, he claims to have fixed a mechanical issue and has thrown 4-straight scoreless outings. The club could always recall Javy Guerra who has 29 saves for the Dodgers since the start of last season.

Should you hold on to Jansen? All depends on who you can add and where you are currently sitting in the standings. I will say that, given the uncertainty of his prognosis, that I would be reluctant to drop Jansen just yet. It’s also tough to suggest dropping a man who has 223 Ks in 137.1 innings leading to a 14.61 career K/9 mark which just so happens to be the second best mark in the history of the game for any pitcher who has tossed at least 125 innings in his career (Craig Kimbrel leads the way with a 15.63 mark).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

By Ray Flowers

Trade Day Diary

The 2012 MLB Trade Deadline is upon us. At BaseballGuys.com there’s no way we could sit out the action which figures to be hot and heavy. We’ll be checking in throughout the day with some thoughts on all of the moves that you need to be made aware of as teams begin to set themselves up for the push for the playoffs.

COMPLETED DEALS

Dodgers Receive: Shane Victorino
Phillies Receive: RHP’s Josh Lindblom, Ethan Martin

The Dodgers get a much needed bat to his at the top of their order. An outfield of Andre Ethier, Matt Kemp and Victorino is the best trio in the NL. Victorino has had a bit of an up and down season but he’s been on top of his game since the All-Star break hitting .357 with five steals and 14 runs scored in 15 games. As a side note. The Phillies are going to call up Domonic Brown, so look for him to get a chance to play almost every day the rest of the way giving him solid value in NL-only leagues.

Rangers Receive: Geovanny Soto
Cubs Receive: RHP Jacob Brigham and some other stuff
(that “stuff” is either a PTBNL or cash).

Soto will slide into a backup job behind the dish since the Rangers already have Mike Napoli. Soto hasn’t hit since 2010, well he hit 17 homers and had 54 RBIs last year, but he also batted .228 last year and isn’t even hitting .200 this year with 35 hits in 176 at-bats (.199). He’ll obviously hold some AL-only value, but his days of even being a catcher #2 in 15 team, two catcher, mixed leagues appear done… at least for 2012. As a result of this deal the Rangers designated Yorvit Torrealba for assignment.

Dodgers Receive: Brandon League
Mariners Receive: RHP Logan Bawcom and OF Leon Landry

League obviously won’t be closing with Kenley Jansen already in town, but he should slide in very nicely in a support role in the Dodgers bullpen given that heavy, an I mean 16 lbs bowling ball heavy, fastball. Still, he’s sporting a 1.42 K/BB ratio in 44.2 innings, so I’m not a huge fan of dumping a lot of FAAB money to add him to an NL-only roster.

Phillies Receive: OF Nate Schierholtz, C Tommy Joseph, RHP Seth Rosin
Giants Receive: Hunter Pence and Cash

It’s about time the Giants added another power bat. Pence-Posey-Sandoval, when all healthy, finally gives the Giants a legitimate 3-4-5 set of bats in the middle of the order. The move to San Francisco doesn’t figure to help Pence much offensively though… or does it? The perception is that Philly is a great hitters park but check out the numbers which tell a different story. At home in 2012 Pence has a .721 OPS that is .121 below his .842 mark on the road.

Rangers Receive: Ryan Dempster
Cubs Receive: RHP Kyle Hendricks, 3B Christian Villanueva

The Cubs were in on Matt Garza too, but they deemed Dempster to be the better medical risk. Going to the AL to pitch in Texas isn’t going to do Dempster’s ratios any favors, not when he doesn’t deserve them in the first place. Still, it’s well worth spending big in AL-only leagues to acquire his services. As a result of his addition the mightily struggling Roy Oswalt has been sent to the bullpen, though the club might still need his services as a starter at some point after the club also announced that Neftali Feliz will have to undergo Tommy John surgery.

Reds Receive: Jonathan Broxton
Royals Receive: LHP Donnie Joseph, RHP J.C. Sulbaran

As a set up man with the Reds, Broxton’s fantasy value is in the total toilet. Given the massive regression in his K/9 this year there is no reason to bother having him on your roster in a mixed league unless you are looking for holds. Broxton should form a tremendous bridge to Aroldis Chapman alongside Sean Marshall. In KC, it seems like Aaron Crow or Greg Holland will be asked to close, though Kelvin Herrera is also in the mix. My money is on Holland.

Yankees Receive: Casey McGehee
Pirates Receive: Chad Qualls

McGehee will help to fill in while A-Rod misses time on the shelf. Hitting just .230 on the year with eight homers, the last time that McG was an impactful hitter for an extended period of time was 2010 when he hit .285 with 23 homers and 104 RBIs. Qualls may not even be worth adding in NL-only leagues.

Pirates Receive: Gaby Sanchez
Marlins Receive: Gorkys Hernandez, RHP Kyle Kaminska, a 2013

Sanchez hit .273 with 18 homers, 85 RBIs and 72 runs scored in 2010. Last year he hit .266 with 19 homers, 78 RBIs and 72 runs scored. This year he’s been hideous appearing in only 55 big league games (he’s spent a lot of time in the minors). In 183 at-bats Sanchez has hit .202 with three homers. A worthwhile gamble for the Pirates, but don’t expect much production the reest of this season.

Red Sox Receive: Craig Breslow
D’backs Receive: Scott Podsednik, Matt Albers 

The Sox sent out two spare parts for lefty who has been a very solid bullpen arm since entering the league in 2005. He’s enjoy a fine season this year with a 2.70 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and 3.23 K/BB ratio. None of these three is worth a look in anything other than league specific setups

Cardinals Receive: Edward Mujica
Marlins Receive: 3B Zack Cox

One more name removed for 9th inning work with the Marlins. Mujica had a 2.96 ERA in 67 games last season but his 6.00 K/9 mark is his lowest since 2007 and he continues to be plagued by the long ball. Cox was a first round selection in 2010, but he’s struggled to find consistency. This year he has hit a mere .254 with nine homers and an OPS of .716 at Triple-A.

NOT TRADED: Rafael Betancourt, Stephen Drew, Chase Headley, Josh Johnson, Matt Garza, Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Denard Span, Justin Upton

 By Ray Flowers

ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Did You Know?

I bet you thought you knew it all. Even I don’t know it all. Today, let’s venture into the world of the unknown to find out some pretty cool factoids.

Did you know… that Hiroki Kuroda has a 2.88 ERA, better than Matt Cain (3.00), Ian Kennedy (3.12) and Tim Hudson (3.18) to name a few? So why does Kuroda get no respect? His record. He’s only 8-14 on the year, the 14 loses are tied for the NL lead with J.A. Happ. Still, amongst pitchers who have thrown at least 300 innings since the start of last season Kuroda’s 3.17 ERA is 14th best in baseball ahead of a slew of big arms like David Price (3.18), Jon Lester (3.28), Tommy Hanson (3.44) and Dan Haren (3.49). Maybe you should give Kuroda a look if you need a boost off the wire if your league mates are down on him cause of that win-loss record.

Did you know… that if we remove the week of death when Brandon League lost four games and had three blown saves, that his ERA would be 2.03? Or how about that his WHIP would drop to 0.79. It’s not like his season long numbers are bad (2.85 and 0.99), but think about how amazing they would look if he hadn’t forgotten how to pitch for a week. As it is he has racked up 29 saves leaving him one from becoming just the third man in the AL to hit that total (Mariano Rivera has 30 while Jose Valverde has 35 in 35 chances).

Did you know… that Justin Morneau is back on the field? I’m sure you did, but before you get all pumped up because he had a nice run over a week in the minors, realize that the guy is hitting .222 with a .611 OPS. Those are roughly the numbers of Lyle Overbay who is hitting .227 with a .648 OPS. Think about that. Lyle Overbay who was cut loose by the Pirates of all teams (he’s now with the D’backs), has a better average and OPS than Justin Morneau.

Did you know… that despite struggles and injuries, that Albert Pujols is still on pace for 39 bombs, 101 RBI and 108 runs scored? As a result of a rescent surger, Pujols has 29 homers, the most amongst all first basemen in the National League (the only first sacker with more is Mark Teixeira of the Yankees – he has 32). Pujols has also upped his average to .288 giving him a legit shot to finish the year with a .300-30-100 line for the 11th straight season. He already holds the all-time record with 10-straight such seasons.

Did you know… over the last three weeks the best starting pitcher in baseball has been Ervin Santana. He has gone 4-0 with a 0.76 ERA and 0.79 WHIP? He’s also posted a 5.00 K/BB ratio for the Angels during that time. This has been key. He just isn’t walking anyone with a total of 11 walks over his last eight trips to the hill. Moreover, he’s emerged with a “W” in each of his last five outings and in four of his last five trips to the hill he has gone at least 8.1 innings. He’s also allowed one or zero earned runs in each of his last five outings and six of his last eight trips to the mound. He’s as locked in as a pitcher can get.

Did you know… over his last 796 big league at-bats that Grady Sizemore is hitting .239? He was never a big average type of guy, but his career mark is still .270, well ahead of his pace from the past three years (moreover, Sizemore hit .279 from 2004-2008 before his recent work dragged down his career numbers). A four time 20 steal man, he swiped a career best 38 bases in 2008, Sizemore has stolen 17 bases over his last 200 games. Over his last 200 games he’s also gone deep only 28 times. From 2006-08 he averaged 28 homers a season. Face it, his body may just not be capable of handling the pounding of playing baseball on a daily basis.

By Ray Flowers

Is Anyone Listening?

photo © 2005 Dave Herholz | more info (via: Wylio)

Albert Pujols is down with an injury and likely to miss 4-6 weeks IF he heals on schedule and IF the Cardinals are being honest about his injury (they’ve grown increasingly less trustworthy in their reporting of injuries). The Cardinals are hosed, Pujols could have cost himself money on the market (I doubt that), and his fantasy owners are totally jammed up. Sad situation all around. Glad I didn’t just swing a huge deal to add Pujols in the Sirius/XM Experts League two weeks ago. Whoops, I did.

Did you give up on Mark Reynolds despite my telling you not to? Reynolds has been hot in June hitting .300 with six homers and 12 RBIs while he’s racked up an ultra impressive 1.155 OPS. Yes he’s still hitting just .217, but his recent run of offensive production has pushed his pace up to 30 homers, 85 RBI and 83 runs scored. Care to guess what his average numbers where the last three years? How about 35 homers, 95 RBI and 88 runs. Pretty darn close wouldn’t you say?

Did you give up on Brandon League during what could have been the worst run of pitching by any reliever in baseball history (from May 8th to May 13th he appeared in four games picking up four loses and three blown saves while allowing 10 earned runs in 2.2 innings)? League hasn’t allowed an earned run since May 13th to drop his ERA back down to 3.90. His WHIP currently sits at 1.07, and if you remove that one week of pitching he would be 20-for-20 in save conversions and his ERA would be 0.99.

The date was October 28th, 2010. That day I penned an article titled Pitchers: Not as Bad as You Thought. In that piece I suggested four names who could return a significant profit in 2011 because their apparently poor work in 2010 would lead to them being undervalued on draft day. Here are the four names that I discussed with a little diddy on how each is currently performing.

Scott Baker (5-4, 3.24 ERA, 88 Ks, 1.17 WHIP in 91.2 IP)
He’s allowed one run over his last two starts, has won each of his last three outings to improve to 5-4, and his ratios this season are outstanding. Baker also has a career best 8.64 K/9 mark and has been everything I hoped he would bee when I commented on how valuable he could be eight months ago. Did you listen? Judging by how many queries I received about Baker the past two weeks I’m gonna have to say very few did.

James Shields (7-4, 2.40 ERA, 108 Ks, 1.00 HWIP in 112.2 IP)
Shields is third in the AL in ERA and 6th in WHIP, and he’s also fourth in the league in innings pitched while his five complete games and three shutouts are the most in baseball. You remember back in March when he was listed 24th amongst starting pitchers in my Top-100 Starting Pitchers? Do you remember how you sent me emails and tweets about how stupid I was?

Chris Narveson (4-4, 4.48 ERA, 70 Ks, 1.39 WHIP over 78.1 IP)
I’m not going to admit total failure here, but he’s not been as good as I hoped. Still, he does have his use as his K/9 rate of 8.04 is solid while his 1.48 GB/FB ratio is encouraging. Hell, what are you complaining about since you drafted Narveson in the 27th round in your mixed league.

A.J. Burnett (7-5, 4.05 ERA, 76 Ks, 1.22 WHIP in 93.1 IP)
Direct hit yet again. Burnett is on pace to better his numbers from last season, some substantially. After all he was 10-15 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 2010. Did you take a chance on him late in drafts cause of my recommendation or simply because he pitches for the Yankees? It’s a concern that his K/9 rate is just 7.33, that’s nearly a full batter below his career rate, but at least it’s better than the 6.99 mark he posted last season.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May 26, 2011

(1) Buster Posey severely injured. Brandon Belt part of the callups as Giants make major changes. If you need help at the catchers position give Behind the Dish a read.

(2) Howie Kendrick to DL with leg issue.

(3) Brandon League is back at it.

(4) Andrew Bailey closing in on return.

(5) How useless are win-loss records to judge pitchers?

(6) Grady Sizemore (knee) could be back on Friday.

By Ray Flowers

The Closer Conundrum

photo © 1913 The Library of Congress | more info (via: Wylio)
One of the most frustrating situations to deal with in the world of fantasy baseball is to accurately predict which arms will operate in the 9th inning for a club. There are locks with guys like Mariano Rivera, Jonathan Papelbon and Brian Wilson, but a good deal of teams either (a) don’t really know who their 9th inning arm will be or (b) don’t really have an arm that is capable of handling the role for the duration of the season. That situation has never been more acute than early in the 2011 season.

The Rays said they would roll with a committee to start the year, but Kyle Farnsworth is getting all the 9th inning work.

The Jays had a bunch of guys get hurt making the situation even more muddled. For now, Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco are likely to get work in the 9th.

The Orioles say Kevin Gregg is their closer, but Koji Uehara is lurking.

The Twins started the year with Joe Nathan in the 9th, but he struggled. Matt Capps is currently their arm of choice at the end of games.

The White Sox opened the year with Matt Thornton. Unfortunately he had the worst 5-game stretch of his career opening up the year. Jesse Crain and Chris Sale have struggled at times, so now it appears Sergio Santos might get a look.

The Rangers have lost Neftali Feliz to the DL leaving things, apparently, in the hands of Darren Oliver. He has four saves in 602 career appearances.

The Mariners seem ready to demote the successful Brandon League with David Aardsma almost ready to return from hip surgery.

The Phillies started with Brad Lidge who was hurt. They then moved on to Jose Contreras who was hurt. Looks like option #3 is Ryan Madson.

The Nationals started the year giving the ball to Sean Burnett, but he really isn’t a closer. Drew Storen, the club’s closer of the future, has looked great and it appears that he is now the man.

The Braves were going to split work between Craig Kimbrel and Johnny Venters, but it’s been all Kimbrel so far.

The Cardinals watched Ryan Franklin implode, repeatedly, before turning over the ninth to hard throwing, but inexperienced, Mitchell Boggs.

And it goes on and on, and we are talking about three weeks of games folks.

The point should be obvious – drafting relievers because of the roles they hold, and not based on the skills that they posses, is fraught with danger. Think of it. Of the 30 teams in the game a third of them have already switched things around in the ninth inning. And we see this every year. Put yourself back into your time machine and set the dial for March, 2010. Look at the following names who likely weren’t even drafted at all, or if they were selected it was only as a late round, shot in the dark, type of gamble in the last round.

Leo Nunez – 30 saves
John Axford – 24 saves
John Rauch – 20 saves
Alfredo Simon – 17 saves
Juan Gutierrez – 15 saves
Koji Uehara – 13 saves
Hong-Chih Kuo – 10 saves

There are arms every year that come totally out of nowhere – i.e. from the waiver-wire – to produce solid and sometimes difference making saves totals. 2011 will be no different pointing out, yet again, why you don’t always have to jump into the closer run on draft day. Just think if you passed on all the top closers this year and were astute about which middle relievers to roster at the end of the draft. It’s eminently conceivable that you could have ended up with Brian Fuentes (six saves), Jose Contreras (five saves), Brandon League (five saves) and Mitchell Boggs (three saves) on your roster. If you had done that you’d have rostered 19 saves for virtually nothing. What type of odds would you lay right now that 19 saves is similar to the totals you’ll likely get from guys like Andrew Bailey and David Aardsma this season?

In the end I think we need a new system to evaluate relievers. The way the system is currently set up rewards luck. Were you the first to run to the waiver wire to add Contreras when Lidge was hurt? Did you drop a quarter of your FAAB budget on Contreras only to see him come down with an injury? Were you smart enough to also add Ryan Madson? What about a guy like Mike Adams who has out pitched them all (0.82 ERA, 0.18 WHIP, 9.00 K/BB) but one who’s really not posting any fantasy value to speak of in a mixed league cause he has no saves?

My solution? I propose the fantasy game goes with Solds, a topic I discussed a year ago in Around the Horn, April 14, 2010. It’s not a perfect solution, but at least it’s a start.

By Ray Flowers