Player Profile: Brandon McCarthy

Late last season, Brandon McCarthy took a line drive off his head. Thoughts of him continuing his baseball career were put on hold as he was taken to the hospital and forced to undergo brain surgery to stabilize his body and save his life. The prognosis was guarded at first, but eventually he was out of the proverbial woods and it seemed like he would be able to live a normal life. Even better at this point is that it appears likely that he will be able resume his baseball career in 2013, excellent news after the scary incident that had us all worried about his life. The D’backs decided that the free agent was worth the risk and have agreed to a two year deal worth $15.5 million dollars to have McCarthy hurl the baseball for them two next two seasons. Was that a wise investment by the Diamondbacks or should they just have signed Joe Blanton for $15 million, the price he agreed to with the Angels (for more on Blanton, see his Player Profile)?

For his career McCarthy owns a 4.02 ERA, 1.28 WHIP an a 37-39 record. Those numbers, combined with a 6.15 K/9 and 2.34 K/BB ratio, paint him as about as average a pitcher as there is in the game. However, there’s more to this pitcher than his career long numbers, much more in fact. Over the last two seasons, 43 starts with the Athletics, Brandon has taken his game up a notch. He may have only won two more games than he lost (17-15), but his ERA has been a sparkling 3.29, his WHIP an impressive 1.18, and his K/BB ratio has shot into the stratosphere at 4.00. Not only are those impressive numbers for an AL hurler, they are just flat out strong totals (the ERA is 22nd in baseball, he’s allowed just the 18th most base runners in the game, and his K/BB ratio is 10th among all pitchers who have thrown at least 275 innings). Now it’s making a lot more sense why the D’backs were happy to give him a two year deal for just over 15 million. Alas, it’s not all unicorns and rainbows with McCarthy.

The most obvious issue with Brandon is a lack of health. I’m not talking about his head injury, I’m talking about his body and more specifically his shoulder. He’s altered his mechanics over the years to compensate for his shoulder, but the fact remains that he’s been a starting pitcher since 2007 and only once in that time has he thrown 170 innings. Moreover, only once in that time has he thrown even 115 innings in a season. The guy just doesn’t have a track record of staying healthy, and it doesn’t matter how talented or effective you are if you aren’t on the field. His health is a HUGE concern.

Though his K/BB ratio has been excellent the last two years and speaks to his understanding of how to pitch, it’s all about his control (in each of the past two seasons his BB/9 mark has been under 2.00). He just doesn’t beat himself which is fantastic, but the other side of that coin is that he also isn’t a strikeout arm which does significantly impact his fantasy outlook. The only time that he’s reached 6.50 batters per nine innings in the K department was way back in 2006. For his career that 6.15 K/9 mark would equate to 123 strikeout per 180 innings pitched. Two points. (1) He’s never thrown 180 innings in a season. (2) Even if he did maintain that rate over 180 innings that total of 123 strikeouts is still just seven more than Craig Kimbrel had last season out of the bullpen. It’s a terrible mark for a starter and would have placed McCarthy 84th in the game in ’12. The lack of strikeout may not hinder his effectiveness on the hill, but it’s a significant red flag in the fantasy game.

McCarthy, who famously has become a bit of a sabermetric geek, learned that given his skill set he would be better off inducing ground balls versus allowing fly balls. He therefore attempted to tailor his pitches to induce grounders, and rather amazingly, he’s had a ton of success doing that. Over the first five seasons of his career his fly ball ratio was at least 41.7 percent each season. The last two years that mark has been 32.2 and 35.1 percent. It’s not overly difficult to understand why his performance has turned around the past two years. He’s pitched more to his strength and worked hard at keeping the ball down in the zone.

So where does all of this leave us? When healthy and on the hill the past two years, McCarthy has been a very impressive big league hurler. There are still a handful of issues you need to be aware of before rostering him. (1) He has an exceedingly difficult time staying health. His track record is one that is littered with DL stints. (2) We assume that he will be fully healthy and capable of performing at his 2011-12 levels in 2013. I certainly hope that is the case, but he did suffer a life threatening injury so I’d like to see him have some success on the hill before just blindly expecting a return to his previous levels. (3) He doesn’t strike batters out nearly enough to be a truly dynamic fantasy weapon. (4) Though he now gets to pitch in places like San Francisco, San Diego and Los Angeles, in ballparks that favor pitchers, his home park is not so kind to hurlers. In 2012 his home park in Oakland was 22nd in runs and 23rd in homers according to Park Factors. The park in Arizona was 6th in runs and 6th in homers. The move from the AL to the NL might not be as much of a positive as you initially thought given the more difficult home environment he will be pitching in. I wish McCarthy luck and wouldn’t at all mind if he was on my fantasy team, but I also wouldn’t draft him as an upper echelon arm given the previously noted concerns. For me, he’s 5th starter type in mixed leagues.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May30, 2012

(1) Andre Ethier making big push for his payday this offseason.

(2) Roy Halladay out for 6-8 weeks with shoulder injury. Is he done being an elite arm?

(3) Jered Weaver placed on DL with back issue. Believed to be minor.

(4) Roy Oswalt signs with Rangers, about four weeks away.

(5) Jonathan Sanchez still working his way back from biceps issue.

(7) Brandon McCarthy good to go Saturday for A’s.

(8) Injured outfielders close to returning -  Yoenis Cespedes, Cameron Maybin, Michael Morse, Desmond Jennings and Nick Markakis.

You can also follow my work over at Sulia.com where I randomly post some of my thoughts through the day.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your crunk on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano: I feel a bit stupid suggesting you should starts Cano, it’s not like there is anyone out there who doesn’t know he’s a HOF bound second sacker, but in 20 career at-bats against the Red Sox Clay Buchholz he’s racked up nine hits for a .450 batting average.

Ryan Ludwick: I’m not a huge fan, and think the Reds made a mistake not just going with Chris Heisey, but there is no denying the track record of Ludwick against the Cubs as he’s hit .279 with 10 homers, 37 RBI an a .843 OPS in 201 at-bats. He’s been even more dominant at Wrigley hitting .349 with seven homers an a 1.041 OPS in 109 at-bats there.

Ryan Raburn: He has only 12 at-bats against Matt Harrison, but he’s been a superstar in the matchup batting .667 with two bombs, seven RBIs an a 2.026, yes that’s a two, OPS. As you read about, you did read Quick Starting Pitchers right?, I’m not a huge fan of Harrison either.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ted Lilly: In his first outing he allowed one unearned run to the Padres. He faces Houston Friday, a team he has thoroughly dominated in his career: Lilly is 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.27 K/9 and a 3.50 K/BB. Toss in the fact that the Astros aren’t very good, and this is a dream matchup on paper.

And for the second straight weeks, two oldies but goodies…

Carlos Zambrano: After allowing one run to the Astros in his last outing, why not go to the well again? Big Z has a matchup with the Nats next, and he’s had a lot of success against that organization in his career with an 8-3 record, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 73 Ks in 78 career innings.

Barry Zito: Through 16 innings Zito has allowed 11 base runners (0.69 WHIP), and just two earned runs (1.13 ERA). We all know the dream will end soon, but it may last another start. Zito has a 3.31 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, with 30 Ks in 35.1 innings, against his opponent Friday – the Mets.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Travis Hafner: We’re only talking 12 at-bats here, and that isn’t necessarily enough data to draw any sort of lasting conclusion, but Hafner has four hits, including two homers, against the Athletics’ Brandon McCarthy. Hafner has also knocked in six runners in the matchup while also garnering two walks.

Brandon Phillips: The only thing that seems likely to stop him on Saturday is his bum wheel. In 48 career at-bats against Paul Maholm he has 17 hits, good for a .354 average an a 1.034 OPS. He’s also taken the Cubs hurler deep four times leading to nine RBI. Plus and play with this gu – as long as he is in the lineup.

Martin Prado: Off to a bit of a slow start hitting .250, Prado is a .292 career hitter. He’s also raked against the D’backs in his career going 22-for-60 leading to a .367 average and 13 RBI in 17 games played. He’s also picked up a hit in seven of his last nine games while he’s driven in four runs while scoring four times in his last two contests. Joe Saunders isn’t exactly a dominating opponent either.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mike Leake: When a guy is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP against a team (the Cubs), you had better take notice. Don’t expect a lot of strikeouts, he has just 32 in 50.2 innings against the Cubs, but he should still have an effective outing.

Brandon McCarthy: Last season he went 6-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home. This season he’s made three “home” starts and in that time he’s got a 2.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The matchup with the Indians isn’t a great one on paper given that the Indians offense has been humming along in the early going, but McCarthy is still a solid option given his success in Oakland and his 6-3 record and 1.30 WHIP against the Indians over 16 games, if he can avoid letting Travis Hafner beat him that is.

Mike Pelfrey: The Mets hurler gets to face the less than imposing offense of the Giants. That’s good news for the 6’7” righty who has a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against the Giants in six starts. He’ll also be pitching at Citi Field, a place where he has enjoyed a lot of success (19-13, 3.46 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

CONTESTS

We have partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday April 20th starting at 7pm EST.  Here are the details:

Create your team with a 1 million dollar salary cap:
C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

It’s FREE to enter and there are $250 in prizes up for grabs

Follow these 2 steps to play.

1. To sign up for this, or any game with DailyJoust, simply click on the link just provided.

2. Watch the live scoring on DailyJoust to see how your team stacks up against the competition.

Good luck!

By Ray Flowers

ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Brandon McCarthy

A 17th round selection in 2002 by the Chicago White Sox, Brandon McCarthy didn’t take long to make his mark. In nearly 600 minor league innings he’s posted a K/9 mark of 9.7, an ERA of 3.33 and a WHIP of 1.10 thanks to hardly ever walking a batter (1.8 per nine). So, why has success at the big league level, and fantasy glory, been so fleeting for the 6’7” righty who now pitches for the Athletics? The answer is ill health. A starting pitcher who was forced to pitch out of the bullpen at times because of his inability to stay healthy, here are Brandon’s innings pitched marks at the big league level: 67, 84.2, 101.2, 22.0, 97.1, zero and 170.2. I wasn’t kidding about the injury factor, was I?

So what happened in 2011 when he stayed healthy for a good chunk of the season (he was still limited to 25 starts because of ongoing shoulder issues)? Not surprisingly, he was highly effective. In fact, he had the best season of his career, and by a lot. Check out the career bests he racked up for the Athletics.

25: Starts
170.2: Innings
9: Wins
3.32: ERA
1.13: WHIP
1.32: BB/9
4.92: K/BB
0.58: HR/9
1.45: GB/FB

McCarthy was 13th in the AL in ERA and 9th in WHIP, and he also finished the year 3rd in walks per nine innings while his K/BB ratio was 2nd best in the Junior Circuit.

So, when a guy hits career bests across the board the tendency is to think that the player has finally “arrived.” In the case of McCarthy, it’s even more likely that people will take this view because (A) he finally was healthy which in some people’s minds means he will be again and (b) he was such a successful minor league hurler that everyone “knew” he would be this pitcher one day. What do I think? You know I won’t be that kind, right?

McCarthy possesses solid skills, chief amongst them his ability to locate his pitches and to keep the walks in check. As mentioned, he threw strikes at an elite level in 2011 as he harkened back to his minor league days, but his walk mark was half, literally, of his career rate of 2.77 per nine. Can he really hold on to a gain like that? McCarthy also posted his best K/9 rate in four years leading to his fantastic K/BB ratio. Can he reasonably be expected to keep up that HOF level rate? The sane response has to be no.

Long a fly ball hurler, McCarthy somehow turned into a ground ball pitcher in 2011. Yes he changed his delivery in an effort to protect his shoulder, and perhaps that did add extra sink to his ball as he didn’t throw quite as over the top as before, but he posted a GB-rate of 47 percent after never before posting a mark over 39 percent as a big league pitcher. I’ll need more data than 170 innings from him at this new level to believe he will be able to sustain those gains. I mean, this guy had a 32 percent fly ball ratio after never once in five seasons posting a mark less than 41.7 percent. That’s a pretty seismic shift don’t you think? In addition to the reduction in fly balls, he also posted the best HR/F ratio of his career leading to a HR/9 mark of 0.58, nearly a 50 percent reduction from his career rate (1.09).

So to summarize, McCarthy had an impressive season, though one that may have been predicted of him six years ago before he was hit hard by the injury bug. Given career best performances nearly across the board, including some major shifts in the type of hurler he had long been, and the ever present injury bug, it’s a near certainty that McCarthy will be drafted too early in 2012. I’m not saying he won’t be a decent option in league specific setups because he very well could be, but with major questions about his durability and his “new” style of pitching, I find it nearly impossible to expect a repeat effort in 2012.

By Ray Flowers

Hot Stove: December 7, 2010

With rumors flying fast and furious, I’ll do my best to be brief here, lest my reports be out of date by the time you read them. By the way, if you want to be kept up to date with minute by minute reports of everything going on at the Winter Meetings, make sure you follow my work on the Baseball Guys’ Twitter page where I try to mention everything that comes across the rumor mill.

Carlos Beltran – There is an absurd rumor out there that the Red Sox have had internal talks about making a run at adding the Mets’ outfielder. Who is on crack in the Red Sox front office? It remains to be seen if Beltran will ever be able to return to his former glory days because of that knee, and unless the Mets are willing to eat more than half of the $18.5 million dollars he is owed for 2011 to move him, there is no way in hell Beltran is going anywhere.

Zack Greinke – He wants out so badly he told the team they could trade him to anyone. I understand, I wouldn’t want to pitch for the Royals either, but really, isn’t this just another example of why the Royals suck? I mean, how do you justify to your fans moving your best player? Maybe the Royals can share notes with the Padres who just pulled off the same trick with Adrian Gonzalez. Speaking of Gonzalez (shoulder surgery), reports that he wouldn’t swing a bat until March appear to be accurate. Doesn’t that make you a wee bit nervous Red Sox fans?

Paul Konerko – He wants $15 million a year, the White Sox only want to pay him something like $12-13 a year. The Sox r need money to strengthen their pen since they lost J.J Putz and Bobby Jenks, but I can’t see how there wont be some meeting of the minds here since Konerko has spent the last 12 seasons with the club.

Cliff Lee – It still seems like the Rangers and Yankees are in the lead for his services. I gotta tell ya though, rumors persist that the Nationals are in the mix even after lavishing a massive contract on Jayson Werth (you can view my thoughts on that deal at Around the Horn: Hot Stove, December 6). I don’t see how the Nats could bring Lee into the fold given their cash outlay to Werth, but here’s to hoping they can find the dough to make it interesting.

Brandon Webb – I know everyone wanta to look like a genius if they can sign him on the cheap with an incentive laden deal and then watch him return to All-Star form, but the guy has thrown only four innings in two seasons because of a wonky shoulder. It must be music to the ears of other hurlers like Brandon McCarthy who is also drawing interest after throwing the ball well in the Venezuelan Winter League. The A’s seem to be at the top of the list for McCarthy, while virtually every NL team appears to be chasing Webb.

Ty Wigginton – Signed a 2-year deal for $7.5 million to join the Rockies. Clearly the club isn’t sold on Todd Helton ever being able to play a full slate of games again because of his back woes. They may have overpaid slightly, but Wigginton is a versatile player whose power swing will play well in Coors.

Why is No One Paying Attention?

Finally, why in the world aren’t more people getting excited about the deal that sent Shaun Marcum to the Brewers? The AL East was about the worst division in baseball to pitch in, and the past two years Marcum has been on the hill he has gone 22-15 with a 3.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 3.10 K/BB ratio. Last time I checked, and it was about 13 seconds ago, there were only eight pitchers in baseball in 2011 who had an ERA below 3.50, a WHIP under 1.15 and a K/BB ratio of at least 3.10. Marcum should continue to be damn effective as the number two starter behind Yovani Gallardo in Milwaukee.

By Ray Flowers

Can't Get Enough

I love baseball. In fact, I often find myself dreaming about the game. I stare at spreadsheets all day, sometimes wind up with a sore back from being hunched over the keyboard all day, and find myself constantly checking my fantasy squads for up to the minute results even when it is clear just how my team will finish in the standings. I know, I’m addicted. Luckily the season is almost over – though of course that doesn’t mean I won’t still be pouring over stats all offseason in search of those little tidbits that will make all the difference in 2010. Here are a few of my observations for Monday.

Matt Cain won his 14th game of the season on Sunday, this after picking up three straight loses during which time he allowed a total of 15 earned runs over 14.1 innings, and yes, that’s more than one run per inning folks (9.42 ERA). I’ve said it all along that Cain has just been lucky this season, though it’s not like I really wanted to see that prediction come to fruition down the stretch when the Giants really needed him to make a playoff push. Here are some numbers.

2009: 7.03 K/9, 2.31 K/BB, 0.93 HR/9, .265 BABIP
Career: 7.51, 2.08 K/BB, 0.80 HR/9, .277 BABIP

So, for the 13th time, don’t expect Cain to continue to roll along with an ERA of 2.88 next season, not unless he really turns around some things on the hill. Look for that ERA of his to be much closer to his career 3.53 mark in’10, though that would still leave him as a valuable member of any fantasy staff (just don’t reach on him).

Can you believe it?Jorge de la Rosa has 16 victories with one start left. If he manages to pull out the win, he will tie the Rockies single season record of 17.

Andy LaRoche had five hits on Monday, including two bombs, leading to six RBI against the Dodgers. That gives LaRoche 12 homers and 61 RBI in 499 ABs this season, to go along with a .259 batting average. So much for that breakout season he was supposed to have after producing strong numbers in spring. The breakout star for the Pirates has actually been Garrett Jones who has 21 homers and 10 steals, not to mention that he has hit .301 in his 292 ABs. If you predicted that one, you can have my job. Wait, I’m not willing to give up my job, you can have one that belongs to one of my co-workers.

Mike Lowell had another one of those Synvisc injections into his hip with to help lube up the joint for the playoffs. It hasn’t been a season to remember for Lowell, but really, is anyone going to complain about a .290 average, 17 homers and 75 RBI in just 438 ABs? If he picked up 589 ABs, as he did in 2007, that rate would leave him with about 23 homers and 101 RBI, and who wouldn’t take that from a third baseman who also hit .290? Exactly.

Brandon McCarthy continues to operate on the fringe of relevance. McCarthy, long hampered by injuries, owns a 4.47 ERA and 1.35 WHIP this season through 16 starts. Things have gotten even better of late as he has posted a 3.45 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP over his last five starts. He isn’t someone to count on, and he certainly doesn’t deserve any attention in mixed leagues heading into 2010, but if you are in an AL-only league there are certainly worse flyers to take a chance on late in your draft.

Do you like it when athletes do those funny commercials? If you do, and you are a hockey fan, give the new Joe Thornton Commercial a watch. Good to know that he has a job because this new line of work wouldn’t be too profitable based upon how he did in the commercial.

By Ray Flowers

Woe is Me

Today I’ll touch on a couple of baseball injuries in the Lone Star state, and then delve into two NFL stories that really got my ire over the weekend. Oh yeah, the one bright spot will be a certain right-handed pitcher who you wouldn’t think would be an ace, but in fact he’s almost pitched like one in the early going.

Brandon McCarthy is DL bound yet again, this time due to a stress fracture in his right shoulder (a very similar injury to the one that sidelined him two years ago). Doug Mathis figures to take his roster spot. McCarthy, one of the more dominating starters in the minors in recent times, has just never been able to stay healthy, and even when he has, his performance has merely been average. Through 81 minor league appearance he owns a 3.35 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 10.1 K/9 and a superb 5.69 K/BB mark. Alas, those numbers did not translate to the bigs as he has posted a 4.61 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6.10 K/9 and 1.74 K/BB rate. Think about that – McCarthy’s strikeout to walk ratio is literally less than one third of what is was in the minor leagues thanks to the fact that he has lost four Ks per nine innings off his dominating minor league number. Oh well. Guess that’s what happens when you share a pitching staff with Kris Benson – guilt by association or something?

Josh Hamilton will undergo surgery for his strained abdomen and miss something like 4-6 weeks. “Given what it could have been, I think it’s probably better than what some of the alternatives are,” general manager Jon Daniels said. Hamilton had no shot to duplicate his numbers from last season (.304-32-130) in my mind, but that doesn’t mean I expected him to be this awful (.240-6-24 in 125 at-bats). As you might guess, this leaves the Rangers in a bit of a pickle on offense, even with the depth they have as they can hardly hope that Andruw Jones suddenly reverts to 2006 form when he hit .262 with 41 home runs and 129 RBI. Still, Jones has had a nice comeback season batting .272/.400/.533 a year after he hit about .100 points below his weight at .158, and he figures to see a few more at-bats along with David Murphy.

Don’t look and just answer me this question – who leads the NL in victories? If you said Johan Santana you would be wrong. If you said Jason Marquis, remarkably, you would be right as he is 8-4 on the year. Only twice in his eight wins have the Rockies scored as many as five runs so it’s not just like he has thrown his glove out there and picked up victories because of massive run support.

Manny Ramirez is still sitting in fifth place amongst NL vote getters for a starting spot in the All-Star game. He is a good deal back of Carlos Beltran some 250,000 votes behind the Mets’ star (Alfonso Soriano is fourth). If you didn’t catch my thoughts on the whole all-star matter, read The All-Star Fallacy.

Now, two football notes…

In case you were tempted to draft Chad Ochocinco, formerly Chad Johnson (and yes, that is his real name), don’t. Listen to the words of that joker in a recent interview with the Cincinnati Enquirer. “I’m not even going to lie to you, I’m going to say it. Last year, the off-season, I didn’t lift one weight, I didn’t run one route, I didn’t exercise,” Chad said. “I didn’t do nothing because my focus was on getting out of a situation I didn’t want to be in. I’m not going to lie.” Gotta give him an “A” for his honesty, but he gets and “F” for life, so I want him nowhere near my fantasy team given the air of negativity that follows around that buffoon. If he had just played football he could have had a glorious career. Now he will have to beg the league to let him in the Hall of Fame.

And lastly, from the IT’s FLAT OUT IMPOSSIBLE file there is this little diddy to mention. Kenny Phillips, a second year safety, is noticeably bigger this year. Here are his own words. “Sixteen pounds since the season ended,” he said. “I don’t know where it came from,” Phillips added, “but I’m proud if it.” I’ll tell you where you got it Kenny, you bought it from some drug dealer in Tijuana. OK, that’s harsh, and of course what I just wrote is mere supposition on my part, I have not one iota of proof that Phillips has done anything illegal to gain size, so let me be clear on that point. But I will tell you flat out that it is IMPOSSIBLE for a professional athlete, already in amazingly physical shape, to gain 16 lbs in a mere five months. Again, let me be clear – it is impossible. Which leads me to my last point. If Phillips was a baseball player he would be the lead story on ESPN as a certain PED user, but he’s a football player so no one, no one, cares. Gotta love the way we castigate baseball players and try to strip them of their dignity for potential PED use while paying absolutely zero attention to the seedy side of football where that stuff certainly goes on. Just keep laying hat on people Kenny, no one will care what you do away from the field as long as you perform on it.

By Ray Flowers