2013 – Tout Wars

Tout Wars is one of the two exclusive fantasy baseball events each year (the other is LABR which I participated in earlier in March). Thanks to the powers that be I was invited to New York to put together a squad in Tout Wars for the second straight year. Below, you will see how my team came together, and I’ll give some thoughts about the entire weekend, which by the way, was a total blast (gotta be the greatest group of folks anyone can work with).

15 team mixed league auction.
14 hitters (2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OFs, UT)
nine pitchers (any mix of starters and relievers)
$260 salary cap

* This league is using OBP in place of batting average. It’s still a 5×5 league, just with that one change.

* Numbers in () are prices paid for each player.

* This league also has a shallow bench, only four spots. However, there is also an unlimited amount of DL spots beyond the four bench spots meaning a player on the DL does not take up a bench spot – i.e. players who start the year on the DL can be replaced with players off the waiver-wire.

C: John Jaso ($6), Tyler Flowers (4)
1B: Eric Hosmer (17)
2B: Howie Kendrick (12), Emilio Bonifacio (6), Daniel Murphy (Reserve)
3B: Martin Prado (14), Manny Machado (6), Pablo Sandoval (14), Alex Rodriguez (Res)
SS: Derek Jeter (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (36), Bryce Harper (33), Domonic Brown (6), Jon Jay (4), Cameron Maybin (6), Billy Hamilton (Res)

STARTING PITCHERS: Brandon Morrow (13), Cliff Lee (23), Zack Greinke (14), Tim Hudson (4), Ryan Dempster (1), Edinson Volquez (Res)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Sergio Romo (16), Joel Hanrahan (11), Mike Adams (3), Jose Veras (4)

Jaso is a solid hitter, and in an OBP league he’s a lot better option than in “normal” leagues (he had an elite .394 OBP last season). Flowers an I are not related but can you blame me for drafting my namesake? He has power and his OBP should be about league average.

Hosmer has had a killer spring, and you know I expect a bounce back (see his Player Profile). Machado may not have a strong OBP, but the rest of his game should be very solid for the price. Sandoval has that elbow issue, so there is uncertainty. I could have used my money elsewhere (another arm perhaps, see below for more on that), but when I saw him sitting there for such a cheap price I had to take the plunge. A-Rod goes to the DL, and I’ll grab another player.

Kendrick will never get to the level some hoped for, but he’s always solid across the board (see his Player Profile). He does take a bit of a hit in an OBP league though. Murphy was a nice reserve round add. I’ll be able to place him on the DL and add another player (a shortstop), to fill out my lineup. Wait, how does Emilio qualify at second? In Tout there is a 15 game per position requirement, not 20. Emilio appeared in 15 games at second base last season. Prado also qualifies in the outfield, and by this point I think everyone knows I’m a big fan.

Jeter isn’t great, and it looks like he’ll miss the first week of the season, but for $7 who is gonna complain? Not I.

CarGo on my team everyone understands, but Harper? I like Harper, but I’m not predicting a top-10 season this year like others are. “So Ray, why is he on your team then?’ I tossed out Harper at $33 and then… crickets. I was very surprised that no one said $34. Did I miscalculate? Certainly seems that way, though it’s not an obnoxious bid (Stanton went for $34, the same Price as Justin Upton to make me feel a little better, but when other 20/20 types in the outfield went for much less – Choo $25, Cespedes $24, Heyward $31 – let’s just say I wasn’t overly excited). There is no doubt Harper has the talent to justify that bid, just wouldn’t have been my first choice. Brown has had a tremendous spring, and there aren’t any more talented outfielders that went for less than $6. Jay isn’t exciting to most, but he is a .300 career hitter who had a .373 OBP with 19 steals last season in 117 games played. Maybin will struggle in OBP, but his wrist seems healthy. There’s a 15/40 season lurking here. Hamilton was a total shot in the dark reserve add. Normally I wouldn’t have done that, but since I have two injured guys I can place on the DL, I figured I could add Hamilton at little risk.

Yes, that was me at 2 AM at Foley’s shooting a double shot of Jameson. Take that Kay Adams. That’s right, the Oracle doesn’t just drink fruity drinks (check out the shocked look on Kay’s face in this photo… that’s the Oracle on the left and Kyle Elfrink on the right). Well, I do most of the time…

I love Cliff Lee. He’s a top-5 option in my mind. He gave me six wins last year in Tout, but I’m doubling down on him this season. I might have paid a dollar or two more when compared to other similar arms, but I feel like I made that back when I got Greinke for just $14. Morrow for a dollar less has a lot of up as well. That’s a pretty strong trio in my mind. Add in veterans like Hudson and Dempster and that’s a solid core. I also felt really good about Volquez in the reserves. He had an ERA under three with a WHIP in the 1.20′s and darn near a K per inning in his home starts last season.

As usual, I like my pen. I snagged Adams with an early bid, and he’s a dominant arm when healthy. Romo might have gone for a dollar or two more than he should have, but I’ve long said he’s a top-10 reliever in baseball if he can stay healthy. Some are worried about the varied performance of Hanrahan in Spring. I’m not. Jose Veras is no great shakes but he’s been over 10 Ks per nine the past three years and he appears to be the Astros main option in the 9th.

Some final thoughts.

My team has a ton of speed but might be a bit thin on power. I’ll address that at some point on the trade market once I get clear on the steals.

My staff needs another arm. I’ll almost certainly add one in the first waiver period with one of my two DL spot openings (I will use the other spot to get a shortstop to help cover until Jeter returns).

I usually limp slowly into drafts, but I went a bit bigger than normal thanks to the Harper add. That was unfortunate too. This draft would have played perfectly into my hands if I done my normal start slow, wade into the water slowly thing. As it was, I spent big early on some folks and that meant in the middle rounds, when a lot of “my guys” were going for less than market value, I just didn’t have the cash to spend (this was particularly evident on the hill – Lincecum for $10, Gallardo $15, Zimmerman $13, Wilson $8). I really hope I don’t regret not having the cash to spend on Lincecum. Hell, if I had gotten that foursome for $46 I would have felt flipping fantastic.

Best Picks: Bonifacio/Maybin for $6 each, Greinke for $14.
Worst Pick: Harper for $33 (only because it wasn’t my plan, not cause I hate the player).

Click on the link to see the 2013 Mixed Tout results.

By Ray Flowers

2013 Livin’ The Fantasy Draft

And the fantasy baseball drafts just keep on coming… Kay Adams and I hosted the Livin’ the Fantasy Draft for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM87). The league consisted of myself, Kay, Kyle Elfrink, two producers (Drew Phelps and Phil Backert), and six listeners (one was unable to make it). That means we had a shallow 11 team, mixed league draft that we took part in. I had the #2 selection in the draft, and here is how my team turned out.

C: Carlos Santana (7th round), Victor Martinez (8)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (19), Kendrys Morales (24)
2B: Rickie Weeks (9), Martin Prado (6)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (4), Manny Machado (21)
SS: Jose Reyes (2)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Dexter Fowler (13), Cameron Maybin (23), Drew Stubbs (25), Michael Brantley (28)

STARTING PITCHERS: Yovani Gallardo (10), Mat Latos (11), Brandon Morrow (12), C.J. Wilson (15), Dan Haren (16), Tim Hudson (22), Edinson Volquez (26)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Joe Nathan (14), Joel Hanrahan (17), Kenley Jansen (18), Steve Cishek (20), Vinnie Pestano (27)

It’s a two catcher league, and with the two talents I saw sitting there in the 7th and 8th rounds I thought to myself what the heck, do something you normally don’t due and roster two potentially elite options at catcher.

First base is an area of weakness relative to the rest of my team. Still, I’m confident that my duo of Youkilis and Morales will be able to hold their own at the spot, even if I’m just treading water there.

Weeks fell in my eyes, so I was more than willing to dive into the pool in the 9th round. Injuries are always an issue, but per 162 games for his career here is Weeks line – .251-23-67-107-20. Yeah, I know right? Prado qualifies at OF, 3B, 2B and SS in this league. I know he shouldn’t, but you have to play to your leagues rules. He offers excellent cover up the middle, at the corner, and in the outfield. I love him as my middle infielder right now. Speaking of up the middle, Reyes is a strong contender to lead shortstops in fantasy value in 2013.

Zimmerman’s shoulder keeps passing all the tests this spring, and he seems well on his way to another traditionally impressive effort at the hot corner. Machado in the 21st was a shocking fall actually. Kyle Elfrink, my co-host on The Drive (5 PM EDT, Monday-Friday) pointed out something very interesting. Rookies like Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar are on everyone’s must draft list. A youngster like Machado, who is just as talented, simply isn’t because he played last year and only did so-so. The perception is that Myers/Profar are worth the risk this season but Machado is only blah. Folks, Machado is a dynamic talent who has a starting job with the Orioles. That should mean more than it does to some.

Braun is still my #1 guy, PED junk be damned. Upton is a great #2 outfielder. Choo is a great #3 outfielder. Fowler is a great #4 outfielder. Maybin/Stubbs/Brantley equals a great #5 outfielder.

On the hill I waited on starters, shocking I know, and yet again proved you can do well following that strategy. Gallardo and Latos are top-20 arms in my eyes, and Morrow is right on the edge of that as well. My 4th starter is Wilson, and I have a lot of faith in him rebounding this season (see his Player Profile). My fifth is Haren, and I have a lot of faith that he will rebound this season (see his Player Profile). My sixth starter is Tim Hudson, you know the guy who has averaged 16 victories with a 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP the past three seasons. My seventh starting arm is Volquez who has a 200 K season in his back pocket, has filthy stuff, and pitches half his games in Petco Park.

In the pen, some strong arms as well. Nathan and Hanrahan are top-10 closer types, and Cishek is a strong 3rd closer. I also added Jansen, that guys arm is as good as any in baseball, and Pestano who is one hell of a hurler himself (he’s also potentially going to get some 9th inning work if Chris Perez isn’t 100 percent by opening day).

It’s an 11 team league, having one less team in the mix certainly opens up the player pool for sure, and who knows about injuries, but looking at this squad I really don’t think I have an obvious weakness.

Oh, and here are the results of an NL-only draft that we held on The Drive which you can hear Monday through Friday at 5 PM EDT on Sirius 210. XM87.

By Ray Flowers

Is Perception Reality?

A lot of times human beings have a hard time making a decision. Sometimes the decisions we make are well reasoned. Other times our information is faulty, we make rash/uneducated decisions because of it, or we let our hormones out of the box and they cause all kinds of issues (tell me you haven’t been out on a Saturday night at 1 AM and those hormones of yours aren’t telling you to do something that you would never do at 6 PM on a Thursday night. Don’t feel bad. We’ve all been there – some of us more than others). With that as the backdrop let me toss out some information and you can tell me what you would do with it.

PITCHER A: Four seasons of 210 innings and five of 185.
PITCHER B: No season of 180 innings.

PITCHER A: Won at least 13 games on four occasions.
PITCHER B: Never won more than 11 games.

PITCHER A: Career 3.31 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 2.81 K/BB, 1.41 GB/FB
PITCHER B: Career 4.10 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 2.28 K/BB, 0.88 GB/FB

Is there any person out there, given that data, that wouldn’t take PITCHER A? Of course there isn’t. Obviously, based on the data laid out PITCHER A is not only a more skilled hurler, he’s also the hurler with experience so there would be no reason to take PITCHER B. Of course, as you might have surmised from the extended build up, many this year are drafting PITCHER B first.

Why is this occurring? The prevailing thought is that PITCHER A, coming off the worst season of his career and a dreadful campaign, is no longer someone that can be counted on while PITCHER B is the upwardly mobile hurler who only needs health to excel in 2013. Is that perception reality?

PITCHER A is Tim Lincecum. I won’t go into great detail breaking down Lincecum in this piece since I’ve already done that in Is Tim Lincecum Washed Up After Years of Dominance? In that article I broke  down why I believe that far too much is being made out of Tim’s loss of velocity and why just because he had a terrible season in 2012 doesn’t mean his career is over.

As for PITCHER B, that’s Brandon Morrow. I get it. Morrow is a power arm who I personally touted as a breakout star last year. He posted a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP as he was well on his way to making me look like a genius before injury struck and that ultimately limited him to being on the bump only 21 times. As I noted above, Morrow doesn’t have any big inning seasons under his belt, and while that shouldn’t stop you from targeting him on draft day it’s just a little knock against him that has to be noted. It should also be noted that despite all the success last year that is better than a strikeout an inning arm, he was over 10.15 K/9 in 2010 and 2011, fell to just 7.80 last season. That’s a significant loss (even “terrible” Lincecum was at 9.19). Morrow did further reduce his walk rate, for the first time it was under three batters per nine innings to help offset the loss of Ks, but is that a repeatable number for him? Will Morrow continue to have success keeping the ball in the yard even though his fly ball rate is constantly 5-7 percent above the league average? Does he have any chance of repeating his .252 BABIP from last season which was .039 points below his career norm?

I’m not going to say that drafting Lincecum over Morrow is the right or wrong move (more on that below). I’m merely going to point out that the numbers, and not just the last 12 months but all the numbers, suggest that while everyone out there but me might be favoring Morrow this season that it really shouldn’t be the open and shut case it seems to be for most. Remember, we all do things at times that we regret and usually the best way to avoid those decisions, other than laying off that 6th Midori Sour, is to get as much information as possible to help you to form an accurate picture of what it is that you’re trying to address.

To find out how I ranked Morrow and Lincecum in 2013, and let me tell you it’s about as close as it can be in my book, make sure you get a copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Starting Pitchers: Hits

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

Things will work a little differently for the pitchers. Instead of a review of the top-10 I’ll detail a series of “Hits” and “Misses” for starters and relievers

HITS

Brandon Morrow (#21): He was exactly the pitcher I expected him to be this year with impressive ratios (2.96 ERA, 1.11 WHIP), an a solid K-rate (7.80, though that was about two batters below what I also expected, so it wasn’t a 100 percent hit). The only issue was lack of health as he was able to make only 21 starts.

Gio Gonzalez (#27): Led the majors in wins (21), had his first sub three ERA (2.89), a career best WHIP (1.13) and his first 200 K season (207). Was the second best left hander in the NL behind Clayton Kershaw and seems like a lock to end the year as a top-5 performer in NL Cy Young voting.

Max Scherzer (#28): A frustrating own at times due to his up and down performance from start to start, Scherzer ended up having one hell of a season. Not only did he win 16 games but he also posted a solid 3.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. However, his claim to fame was the punchout. Scherzer had the second most strikeouts in baseball with 231 (eight behind teammate Justin Verlander), and his K/9 mark of 11.08 was the 19th best single season mark in the history of the game (min. 162 IP). Only Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Kerry Wood, Nolan Ryan, Dwight Gooden, Hideo Nomo and Curt Schilling ever bettered the K/9 mark.

James McDonald (#66): He always had the arm but never the consistency. While you can still make that argument after his epic second half collapse (7.52 ERA, 1.79 WHIP over his last 13 outings), he was so good in the first half (9-3, 2.37 ERA, 0.97 WHIP, 100 Ks in 110 IP), and was so cheap on draft day (he likely wasn’t drafted until the 25th round or later in mixed leagues), that his overall effort was still solid (12 wins, 1.26 WHIP, 151 Ks in 171 IP).

Jonathon Niese (#62): Niese won a career best 11 games, had a career best 3.40 ERA, an after 3-years with a WHIP in the 1.40′s he dropped that number down to 1.17. Two years running now he has also posted a K/BB ratio of better than 3:1. He’s not likely to improve upon his 2012 numbers, but he doesn’t need to in order to be a solid depth arm in mixed leagues.

Chris Capuano (#72): Some will see the three victories and 4.76 ERA over his last 15 starts. That is being shortsighted. What should be seen is his overall effort, his best since 2005. Finishing just five outs short of his first 200-inning season since 2006, Capuano won 12 games with a 3.72 ERA and 1.22 WHIP (both ratios are career bests). Like Niese, he’s now posted a K/BB ratio of 3:1 in each of the last two years.

Chris Sale (#73): Sale tossed 33.2 innings in 2010, 71 in 2011, and then a whopping 192 in ’12. There were issues most of the year with his arm – he was moved to the bullpen at one point and was given extra rest between starts when the White Sox could – but in the end the effort was a truly dominating one for the young lefty as Sale won 17 games, posted 192 Ks in 192 innings, and had two sparkling ratio numbers (3.05 ERA, 1.14 WHIP). The massive IP increase is a concern, but this is one dynamic skill set.

Bronson Arroyo (#89): For the 8th straight year Arroyo threw at least 199 innings, and for the 4th time in five seasons he won at least 12 games. He also posted a 3.74 ERA, his best mark in six years, while his WHIP of 1.21 was just the second time that mark has been under 1.25 since 2007. He doesn’t strike anyone out, his 5.75 K/9 mark is bad, but he’s a solid innings eater who won’t kill your ratios in mixed leagues.

Ivan Nova (#103): From my Player Profile on Nova before the year started. “… pitchers can have a ton of extended success with a skill set like this, but that doesn’t mean they should be guys you target in the fantasy game… Keep expectations in check with Nova, and that means realizing Nova is a 4/5 starter in mixed leagues and nothing more.” The good – Nova won 12 games and had 153 Ks displaying a yet unforeseen ability to strike batters out (his K/9 mark hadn’t hit 5.60 in his first two seasons but somehow rose to 8.08 in 2012). The bad? He allowed a ton of homers (1.48 per nine), saw his ERA skyrocket (5.02), and that WHIP was a career worst as well (1.47). He was exactly what I thought he would be, despite so many other fantasy folks pushing him as a better option than I thought he would be.

Jeff Samardzija (#108): One of the keys to my NL LABR team’s success (I purchased him for a mere dollar at auction), JS had a sensational first season as a starter for the Cubs. For more on Samardzija see my September 13th Mailbag column.

Tom Milone (#112): A strong end game grab who came into the year with just 26 innings of big league experience. He struck out a few more batters than expected (a 6.49 K/9) and he simply didn’t beat himself (1.71 walks per nine) leading to an impressive 3.81 K/BB ratio. The rookie lefty won 13 games, had a 3.74 ERA an a 1.28 WHIP for the cost of peanuts on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Review: SiriusXM Hosts League Draft

The review of my season in the abyss continues as I’ll take a look today at the Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio Hosts’ League club that I put together.

Kurt Suzuki and John Buck were total failures. In the piece I just linked to above I mentioned how close I was to getting Carlos Ruiz. Oh well.

Kevin Youkilis (.235-19-60-72) had a lost season wearing White and Red Sox.

Dustin Pedroia had a solid season with 15 homers, 20 steals and 81 runs scored, but injuries limited him to his worst season of 140 games played.

Derek Jeter was on a whole lot of my teams this year. Turns out he was a hell of a lot better than anyone, well almost anyone, thought he would be (.316-15-59-99-9).

Billy Butler was a superstar posting the best numbers of his career (.313-29-107-72). I don’t think he can get much better – at least in the homer column.

My outfield was a mixed bag. CarGo (.303-22-85-89-20) was once again star. Carl Crawford was once again a massive disappointment in his worst season (31 flipping games). Shane Victorino stole a career best 39 bags, but he also hit a career worst .255, produced 55 RBIs (his lowest total in five years), and scored just 72 times, his fewest times crossing the plate since 2006. Brett Gardner was a total flop appearing in just 16 games because of about 16 setbacks with his elbow. After averaging 48 steals the past two years and getting just two this year, it’s not surprising to see my team come in with seven out of a possible 12 points in the steals category.

Mark Reynolds, a top-5 third baseman in homers, RBIs and runs from 2009-11, had his worst season ever with only a massive finishing kick giving him non-puking numbers (.221-23-69-65). I still spit up a little in my mouth.

James Shields joined Justin Verlander as the only two pitchers in baseball with at least 15 victories and 220 Ks each of the past two years.

Ricky Romero was the worst pitcher ever. Well, not quite, but you know what I mean. If you don’t, here is some context. Not only did he have a 1.67 WHIP over 181 innings, he posted the 10th worst ERA of the 21st century for a hurler who tossed 180 innings (his mark was 5.77, the worst the 6.65 mark of Jose Lima in 2000).

Brandon Morrow was the ace I predicted he would be with a 2.96 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Too bad he made only 21 starts because of injury.

Max Scherzer alternated brilliance and putrid outings frustrating his owners. In the end though no one was complaining about 16 victories, 231 Ks, a 3.74 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.

Chad Billingsley, Erik Bedard, Ricky Nolasco rounded out the rotation. Billingsley was having a nice bounce back season before an elbow injury shut him down at 149.2 innings after 4-straight years over 185 innings. Bedard was just awful after a solid start (7-14, 5.01 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). Amazingly he was healthy but horrible. Nolasco teased again, and in the end the numbers were terrible (12-13, 4.48 ERA, 1.37 WHIP).

Sergio Santos, Kenley Jansen, Brett Myers, Matt Capps and Aroldis Chapman were my bullpen, and yes I led the league in saves with 142, a pretty kick ass number for a 12 team league. Don’t overlook the fact that Santos had only two saves on the year either. If he too was healthy I could have parlayed one of these arms into more help for my starting staff.

CONGRATS: Drew Dinkmyer of Fantistics.

FINAL RESULT: 8/12. Not good. However, one more run, two more wins and 14 more Ks would have landed me in a tie for 6th place. Amazing how close it always is after such a long season.

By Ray Flowers

Review: FSTA League

I stand accountable. More times than not I’m right, but sometimes I make mistakes. When I do, I’m not afraid to admit it. I’d like to think that helps to set me out a bit in this industry. I try to be transparent and truthful. To that end, I thought I would spend a few days reviewing the results from my “experts leagues.” It wasn’t exactly pretty, I’ll be straight forward with that, but again I don’t believe in running and hiding. First up, the FSTA Experts League.

To review my team click on this link: Vegas, BaseballGuys FSTA Team

And if you want to see the results of the draft, click on the FSTA DRAFT link.

A note. This draft was held in January. That created a lot of issues, chief amongst them the fact that Ryan Braun was thought to be suspended for 50 games at the time of the draft (he went in the 4th round to Chris Liss). There was also the little issue of bullpens simply not being setup at the time of the draft (the draft is so early to help people prepare for the season, but in holding it so early there are a ton of issues that crop up).

To my team.

Yadier Molina and Ryan Doumit were rockstars at catcher. Tremendous duo in a 2-catcher league. Better than anyone else’s.

First base was my downfall. Carlos Pena had his worse full season (he hit flipping .197 with 19 homers and 61 RBIs. He had gone deep at least 28 times with 80 RBIs each of the previous five seasons) and Derrek Lee never played (remember, the draft was in January).

Dustin Pedroia and Brandon Phillips weren’t great, but they were certainly solid at second and middle infield.

Evan Longoria, my first round pick, missed half the season. Last year I won the league with Carl Crawford as my first round pick. I couldn’t pull off the trick again with my first round pick crapping out. My two late grabs to help out at the hot corner, Mat Gamel and Ian Stewart, were just awful.

Yunel Escobar was very solid three of the last four years. Oops. Make if three of five years now as he was awful in 2012 as he hit .253 with 51 RBIs and 58 runs scored. He’s a career .282 hitter.

Matt Holliday did what he always does – produce. Michael Bourn slowed late in the year, but he was still at borderline top-50 performer overall. Shane Victorino, like so many others on this squad, had his worst effort (.255-11-55-72-39). Martin Prado qualified in the infield and outfield and was a dynamic 4th OF with a .301-10-70-81-17. That’s a great season. I was once again bit by the early draft. I added Chris Heisey as my 5th outfielder as he appeared to have a shot to hit 25+ homers in a full-time role with the Reds. Literally days later the Reds signed Ryan Ludwick. We know how that turned out. Matt Joyce started strong but was hurt and ultimately faded in the second half. Oh, and that Franklin Gutierrez — always hurt.

The pitching…

Ricky Romero. I don’t need to say anything there other than just list his name. You know what I mean. C.J. Wilson started out fantastically before an elbow injured killed him in the second half (he’ll need surgery). Brandon Morrow was off to a dominating pace but was felled by an oblique issue. Wandy Rodriguez was, Wandy Rodriguez. Sergio Santos below his arm out. Scott Baker blew his arm out. Tim Stauffer didn’t blow his arm out, but he threw all of five innings on the year. Chris Perez was aces. Roy Oswalt was awful (remember, this draft was in January and we all thought he was going to be pitching in the first week of the season). Tyler Clippard was fantastic. Javy Guerra ended the year with a whimper, and Brandon Lyon never did close all year. Not that it would have mattered with the Astros.

CONGRATS: Steve Gardner/Howard Kamen who won the league.

FINAL RESULT: 11/13 teams. I failed miserably to repeat as the league champion that I was in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Pitchers Down, Catchers Up

Trevor Ray and Justin Fensterman discuss some injured pitchers and some possible streaming options. They also discuss a couple of catcher options that are great waiver wire pickups.

Evan Longoria, Ryan Dempster, Brandon Beachy, Felipe Paulino, Brandon Morrow, Matt Harrison, Clayton Richard, Salvador Perez, Derek Norris, Martin Maldanado

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Mailbag: May 31, 2012

Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Eric Hosmer and Brandon Morrow too much for Adrian Gonzalez? 14 tm mixed keeper.
– @strofaninKC

Hosmer is hitting .204 with a .617 OPS disappointing everyone who drafted him to be a starter at first base this year. At the same time he has hits in eight of his last nine games and finally seems to have found his bearings. As I’ve said many times, his walk rate is up while his strikeout rate is down from his rookie season (his BB/K has gone from 0.41 to 0.62), while his GB/FB ratio is also similar (1.57 to 1.75). Hosmer’s line drive rate has also crept back up to 17 percent, within shouting distance of his 18.7 percent mark from last season. Given all of that, there really is no way to explain how his .314 BABIP as a rookie has dipped to .208 this year, so there would seem to be a fair amount of room for growth here. Even with all his struggles this year Hosmer is still on pace for 19 homers and 82 RBIs, similar to the 19 and 78 marks he posted last season, albeit in 90 more at-bats.

Morrow has been dynamic this year. Through 11 starts he has a 6-3 record with 3.28 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. He’s also completely dominated batters at times with 62 Ks in 68.2 innings, and seven times in his 11 outings he has allowed zero or one run thanks in no small part to a significant reduction in his walk rate (last four years: 5.68 per nine, 4.06, 3.46 and 2.88 this year). Unfortunately he took a ball off his shin Wednesday night in what looked like a scary scene. Reports suggest that he has a good chance to make his next start, so perhaps he escaped a significant injury, but there is at least some uncertainty at the moment.

Gonzalez, and I’ve said and written this many times, was not worth a first round pick this year. His .338 average last year was .034 points higher than it had ever been and .046 points above his career batting average (that’s akin Adam Dunn hitting .289). As I also pointed out many times, despite the perception, Fenway is a tough park for left-handed power hitters to go deep, and Adrian’s performance backs me up: in 106 career games at Fenway A-Gone has hit a mere 12 homers (he has slapped 31 doubles around the barn). Despite all that Gonzalez has still woefully underperformed hitting less than Yonder Alonso (..279 to .274) with fewer homers than Ike Davis (five to four) and the same amount of RBIs as Justin Smoak (27), and that isn’t likely to continue.

I’d take a shot on the two players. Morrow’s health situation makes me a bit nervous, but if he’s healthy he should be able to push the duo above the value you will get from Gonzalez the rest of the way since Hosmer finally looks to be figuring it out.

Dan Haren and Lucas Duda for Edwin Encarnacion?
– @knkorte

Haren has been up and down this year but over his last two starts he has allowed just one run, struck out 21 batters, issued not a single walk, and won both outings. As a result his season long numbers all of a sudden look elite again: 8.29 K/9 (would be a 3-year high), 1.76 BB/9 (just below his career 1.88 mark), 1.15 GB/FB (career 1.19), 0.88 HR/9 (career 1.01). Face it, Haren is back to being the top-15 option on the hill that he was drafted to be. Amazingly consistent is this righty.

Duda has gone deep three times in his last six games nearly doubling his total of four homers in 43 games. He’s also hitting a mere .257 with 26 RBI and 20 runs scored while sporting a decent .346 OBP. To this point of the season he has been the definition of blah. Still, what he is currently doing would lead to a season of 20 homers and 80+ RBI, so if he can just get a few more balls to fall for hits, maybe get that average up to the .270 range, he wouldn’t be that bad a corner infield option in mixed leagues now would he (he’s only owned in 35 percent of Fleaflicker leagues)?

People get way ahead of themselves sometimes. Encarnacion is on pace for an epic season of .274-54-130-95-19 with a .920 OPS. Realize I used the word “pace.” Here are the facts. (1) EE has never hit 30 homers in a season. (2) EE has never had 80 RBI. (3) EE has never had 80 runs scored. (4) EE has never stolen 10 bases in a season. (5) EE has never had an OPS of .835. That’s a whole lot of “never” for a guy who has played seven previous seasons in the big leagues. It’s also worth mentioning that EE has appeared in less than 100 games in two of the past three seasons because of injures, and his current batting average (.274) and OBP (.336) are basically career average numbers (.265 and .334). There is no chance that he keeps up the current pace, none, the question is how much will he slow down?

I’d take the duo. Haren is a rock of epic proportions – you know exactly what you’ll get from him. Duda is no Encarnacion, though his “pace” this season would equate to what everyone would have expected from Encarnacion this season, but he should be an effective offensive player this season for the Mets. Don’t mistake me, I’m about as big an Encarnacion fan as there is out there, but what he has done to this point of the season just boggles the mind and portends a significant slow down the rest of the way.

Jed Lowrie or Rafael Furcal?
– @glh205

Lowrie is one of my favorite whipping boys. He seems to always have a three week stretch in which he looks like the second coming of Cal Ripken. However, he then follows it up with a three week stretch where he’s Johnnie LeMaster like. In the end, what we end up with is a slightly better than average hitter. Take his career slash line. In 969 at-bats it’s .256/.328/.419. What is the league average since his career started? How about .262/.329/.414. If we pro-rate his career work over 500 at-bats we end up with a season of .256-14-71-68-3. That’s a solid season for a guy who qualifies at third and shortstop, but it’s nothing to get excited about (Alexei Ramirez hit .269-15-70-81-7 last year and no one was falling all over themselves to draft him this year).

Furcal is hitting .333. The last time he hit .300 in a season of 100 games was 2006. Furcal has a .391 OBP. The last time he posted a mark that high in a season of 100 games was his rookie season of 2000. Furcal has a .460 SLG. The last time he posted a mark that high in a season of 100 games was — never. Why do I keep mentioning 100 games? That is the game total that Furcal has failed to reach in three of the previous four seasons do to injury. Is it reasonable to think that the 36 year old shortstop will be able to blow past that total with ease this year, not to mention doing so while performing at the highest levels of his career? There’s no disputing that there is significant talent with Furcal, and if he were to stay healthy an appear in 140+ games his production would be impressive given his hot start, but there is just so much here that sends up a big yellow cautionary flag with the Cardinals’ shortstop. Still, give me Furcal. I know there are a myriad of legitimate concerns with him, but he possesses more fantasy worthy skills than Lowrie at this point.

Paul Goldschmidt or Delmon Young in a re-draft heavy hitter league?
– @JHAWK707

In one of the most inexplicable situations in recent years, Goldschmidt simply annihilates Tim Lincecum. In 13 at-bats he has seven hits which include a double and four home runs (in 2012 he is merely 2-for-4 with two homers). Against the rest of the league he has hit .245 with eight homers in 283 career at-bats, pretty dreadful numbers for an “offensive force” that plays first base. We’re talking under 100 games of big league experience though, so this story clearly hasn’t been written yet. What is extremely heartening is that Paul has hits in 9-straight games as his average has gone up from .219 to .266 while his OP has climbed nearly a .150 points as well (.630 to .775).

Young, when he isn’t getting in trouble with the law, has been a disappointment on the field hitting .245 with a sickly .657 OPS. He still never walks, just seven free passes this year, and he continues to show nothing on the base paths (he has one steal in his last 167 games). There really is nothing to recommend Young at this point other than his pedigree and the fact that he owns a career .286 average and has hit worse than .284 only one time (though it was last year at .245).

I’d take Goldschmidt who has more power potential and for the fact that he has been the hotter hitter of late.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Timing is Everything

People try to play fantasy baseball like they try to time the stock market. If it works, an it rarely does, you look like a genius. In the long run, most of the time if you just stand pat, provided of course that you have the right commodities in your portfolio, you will come out ahead. Today I’ll give my thoughts on which ballplayers you’ll want to hold on to, and which might end up disappointing you with only a moderate return on your investment.

I still find it rather surprising that so many people seem so willing to toss away Michael Bourn in trade offers. I know he has no homers and seven RBI, but folks, do you realize how good he has been otherwise? Besides hitting .333 this speedster also has a .404 OBP and he’s on pace for 108 runs scored and 59 steals. Deal him at your own peril.

Rafael Furcal is hitting .342 with 15 RBI, 22 runs scored and six steals for the Cardinals reminding everyone that he can still be a dynamic talent when healthy. However, and you know how I hate to bring bad news, the guy has failed to appear in 100 games in three of the past four years so I wouldn’t be at all adverse to anyone trading him while they can because things are bound to get ugly at some point.

Ryan Howard (Achilles), finally, took batting practice Monday for the first time since February. Howard still doesn’t have a target date for a return, but the prevailing wisdom is that he will be back in action, barring any more setbacks of course, in late May or early June. Given his rate of production the past two years – he’s averaged 32 homers and 112 RBI the past two campaigns – if he starts action on June 1st he’d be able to play in 2/3 of the Phillies games this season. That would equate to about 21 homers and 75 RBI. Of course, that’s if he hits the ground running and matches his level of production from the past two seasons. I’m not sure that is going to happen given how much time he has missed (for more on Howard see his Player Profile).

Ask around and people will tell you that Andrew McCutchen has been a major disappointment. I can’t sit here and say I’m not leaning in that direction myself, but let’s keep things in perspective. He’s one hit from batting .300 at .298 which would be a career best. His current .356 OBP is just under his career .364 rate, and that’s despite the fact that his walk rate has gone down by about 40 percent from his career level. He’s also on pace for 29 thefts after averaging 26 his first three big league seasons. The reason he’s been disappointing is that he’s gone 94 at-bats without a home run leading him to a paltry seven RBI. He’s also scored only seven times since the Pirates offense has been so anemic. I’m on record though as a big time McCutchen supporter, an I’m still in that camp.

There’s only one more show for Smash. Who will be named Marilyn – Karen Cartwright or Ivy Lynn? I can’t believe that I just admitted to the world that I actually watch Smash. Go Karen.

Remember when you were panicked because Brandon Morrow had a 4.50 ERA and just nine strikeouts in his first three starts? Hopefully you held on tight to the fire balling righty as he’s gone 3-0 with a 0.41 ERA and 0.74 WHIP over his last three starts. He’s also struck out 20 batters and walked just one in stamping himself as an arm to watch this season.

Sounds like Brad Penny faked an injury to his shoulder to get out of his two year deal with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in the Japan League (tests showed no structural damage). Count me as shocked. That guy is a joke, has been for years. Regardless, it’s only a matter of time before some team takes the plunge and signs Penny even though his performance since 2008 has been flat out bad: 31-33, 5.11 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 4.79 K/9, 1.64 K/BB.

Dale Thayer got the save for the Padres Monday night. Andrew Cashner, thought by many to be the presumptive favorite for 9th inning work with Huston Street out with a lat injury, threw 39 pitches Sunday so he was likely unavailable meaning we still don’t really know who will serve as the 9th inning arm (Luke Gregerson could also get some work). Cashner has a huge arm, but he also often has no idea where the ball is going. In 13.2 innings he struck out 12 batters but he’s also walked 12. That’s ugly. Thayer, who has more than 170 minor league saves in his minor league career, has walked only one batter in 31 big league innings as the anti-Cashner. You have to think that Cashner who is younger and has the bigger arm will get a crack at the role, but Thayer is there to pick up the pieces in the even that Cashner struggles.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Billy Butler: Guess who loves to see the mustached one, Carl Pavano, toeing the rubber? This guy. Butler has hit .429 with a 1.124 OPS against the Twins’ righty in his career, and we’re talking 21 hits in 49 at-bats making those numbers pretty imposing. Toss in two homers and nine RBI and you should be giddy with Butler in your lineup.

Chipper Jones: Around an around the wheel spins, and where it stops no one knows. Will it stop on Chipper being IN or OUT of the lineup Friday? Who knows as this situation is about as dicey as your local weather forecaster who, inevitably, somehow ends up being off by 15 degrees when they tell you what the temperature will be. If Chipper plays he has a great matchup with 13 hits in 37 at-bats, a .351 average, with two homers and six RBI against A.J. Burnett.

Hunter Pence: Paul Maholm often posses little difficulty for the elite hitters in the game, so it’s hardly a surprise that a guy like Pence has had success against the Cubs hurler. In 44 career at-bats Pence has hit .318 with two bombs and nine RBI spread out over 44 at-bats.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

John Danks: Normally I wouldn’t suggest starting a pitcher against the Red Sox, but the team is a mess right now. No Ellsbury or Crawford, Ross has a knee issue, they’ve got the off the field turmoil, all of that would seem to make Danks a passable play. Current Sox batters have a .186 batting average against Danks, not to mention that he has a 2.82 ERA over his last 30 innings against the Red Sox.

Tommy Hanson: He’s made four starts this season an only once has he allowed more than two runs. He’s also won two of his last three decisions, and on the year he has 23 Ks in 24 innings pitched. When you toss in the gravy on top of that turkey dinner, the competition, it’s a meal you’ll want to saddle up to the table to eat. His opponent Friday is the Pirates, a team hitting .221 with 41 runs scored, 18 fewer runs than any other team in baseball.

Corey Luebke: He’s starting against the Giants, and in general, that’s usually a good thing for a pitcher. Add in the fact that he’s won his last two starts, and that he’s allowed a total of two runs over his last three starts to drop his ERA to 2.52 and now we’re cooking with gas. You might pause to start him when you realize the game is being played in San Francisco, but that’s only because you haven’t looked at the numbers. In his career at home he has a 3.69 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, impressive numbers to be sure, but no match for his work on the road (2.73 ERA, 1.08 WHIP).

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Orlando Hudson: Yes he is hitting .206, and he is also facing Tim Lincecum Saturday. So why in the world is he listed here as a potential play? Surprisingly, O-Dog has 10 hits in 27 at-bats against The Freak, a .370 average. Hey, if you really think that Lincecum is that awful then you don’t have a problem starting Hudson, do you?

Grady Sizemore: He is hitting .550 with three homers in 20 at-bats against Dan Haren… oh, sorry.

Paul Konerko: The White Sox first sacker, who just blasted his 400th career homer, has enjoyed a ton of success against Jon Lester who also happens to be struggling to find any consistency this year on the hill. That make Konerko, who is hitting .389 with three homers and six RBI against Lester (18 at-bats) a solid play.

Danny Valencia: Not a name you probably figured you would be reading about, but when a guy has nine hits in 18 at-bats against someone (Bruce Chen) people tend to take notice. He hasn’t taken the lefty deep but he does have five RBI and just one punchout in their matchups.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Colby Lewis: Not only is Lewis 3-0 against the Rays with 15 Ks in 17.1 innings in his career, he’s off to a blazing start this year with a 2.03 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and 24 Ks in 26.2 innings. He’s also not beating himself with only one free pass issued proving that he’s about as locked in as any hurler in the game right now.

Brandon Morrow: The Blue Jays hurler has a 3.71 ERA and 1.12 WHIP on the year, but only 12 strikeouts through four starts causing some people to be a bit nervous. He should be able to turn that worry on its ear given that he faces a Mariners club that he’s racked up 19 Ks in just 13 innings against. He’s 2-0 against the Mariners while posting a 2.77 ERA and 1.15 WHIP.

Anibal Sanchez: This righty has made five starts against the D’backs to the tune of a 3-1 record, 3.71 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 31 Ks in 34 innings. He’s allowed only two runs in each of his three starts this year. Seems like a recipe for success, does it not?

CONTEST

Are you ready to test your fantasy baseball acumen against one of the best in the business? Well you may not ever get the chance to do that, but I can guarantee that you will have your chance to take on Ray Flowers, me, in the BaseballGuys / DailyJoust $250 Free Roll this Friday, April 27th.

There’s still time to sign up. Click on the link to participate, for Free, to win $ and to get bragging rights if you can beat me.

By Ray Flowers