SiriusXM Hosts League Draft

Last night, live on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, we had another hosts draft in which I got to pit my wits against some of the industry leaders in a 12 team, mixed league snake draft. Let’s see how I did.  The number in parenthesis is the round the player was drafted in the fantasy baseball draft.

C: Kurt Suzuki (16), John Buck (26)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (4)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (2)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (3)
SS: Derek Jeter (12)
MI/CI: Yunel Escobar (18), Billy Butler (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (1), Carl Crawford (5), Shane Victorino (6), Brett Gardner (8), Carlos Lee (20)
UT: Mark Reynolds (11)

SP: James Shields (9), Ricky Romero (10), Brandon Morrow (13), Max Scherzer (15)

RP: Sergio Santos (14), Kenley Jansen (17), Brett Myers (19), Matt Capps (21), Aroldis Chapman (23)

BENCH: Denard Span (22), Ricky Nolasco (24), Erik Bedard (25), Ian Stewart (27), Brian Roberts (28)

* I wanted to roster Nick Hundley or Chris Iannetta as my second catcher, but both were taken the round I was going to add them. I then thought I’d take Carlos Ruiz, but he too was taken so I just waited to add Buck. If you can fill bench spots before you have to fill your starting lineup, you might consider a similar strategy.

* I was certainly tempted to take Joey Votto with my first pick, but two things played into my choice of CarGo. (1) I like the five category skills of Gonzalez a wee bit better. (2) Yahoo, which is the service we held the draft on, pretty much qualifies everyone in the game as a first or third baseman, so I felt comfortable passing on the elite first baseman.

* Speaking of the corners, look at the lineup I rostered. Youkilis can play first or third, ditto with Reynolds, an even Butler qualifies at first in this set up too (so does Lee). People might look at Butler in the 7th round and think that’s too early to take him, but as a first base eligible player he’s of real interest. To compare, Eric Hosmer hit .293 with 19 homers and 78 RBI last year in 523 at-bats while Butler hit .291 with 19 homers and 95 RBI in 597 at-bats. Plus, Butler is a rock of consistency.

* Jeter is old, but I don’t doubt that he’ll hit at least .280 with 15 steals and 80 runs scored – at a minimum. Escobar in the 18th round was also a solid add at middle infielder. Speaking of middle infielders, why in the hell did I take Brian Roberts in the 28th round? Did my computer do on auto-draft? Did I drink too many Paradise Punch’s and think it was 2007? You know how I always preach about knowing your league rules? This is a perfect example. Roberts will start the year on the DL, so if he’s taking up a bench spot in a 12 team mixed league it’s pretty tough to justify his inclusion on your roster. However, this league has DL spots. I drafted Roberts, immediately placed him on the DL after the draft (I was able to add Chad Billingsley). In essence, I’ll get a player I was targeting with my last pick in the draft anyway, an I’ll have Roberts for free cause he isn’t impacting my active roster. If/when Roberts plays, he’ll be effective. It’s just a matter of when that will occur.

* I waited on pitching, but so did everyone else to a certain degree. That resulted in a large number of solid starting pitchers being available late (Nolasco, Bedard types). However, people went hot and heavy on relievers, so I just waited that out. In the end, I’ve got three closers – Santos, Myers, Capps – though I really only like the first one. Still, saves are saves, so I’ll pay the price in the ratio cats to get them from Capps and Myers. I also added Chapman on the off chance that the Reds decide to give him some 9th inning work which is certainly possible (especially after Dusty Baker said the other day that he isn’t locked into using Sean Marshall exclusively in the 9th). As for my starters, see what I say about waiting on arms? Shields, Romero, Morrow and Scherzer all have the talent to win 15 games with at least 175 Ks. I wanted to take Morrow in the 11th but showed patience and got him two rounds later. I also wanted Scherzer in the 13th but was able to get him two round later as well.

So there is the squad. What do you think? Oh, by the way, for the full draft results click on the link to SiriusXM Experts Draft.

To sign up for fantasy baseball, give Fleaflicker a look.

By Ray Flowers

ABA 2011: A Review

Yesterday in ABA: The New WHIP, I laid out my six year old idea now of how to better evaluate pitchers performance than the standard that is used in virtually every fantasy league – WHIP. Instead I suggested that Average Bases Allowed (ABA) – recorded by taking Total Bases + Walks divided by Innings Pitched – gives a truer understanding of the level of performance for a hurler than WHIP (you can read about the in’s an out’s of ABA in the above link). Today, I’ll list for you some of the leaders in ABA from the 2011 season based on innings pitched. Before I get to that a quick review of ABA.

ABA = (TBA + BB) / IP

The lower ones ABA the better, but it doesn’t read the same was as WHIP. Whereas the average WHIP last season was 1.32, the league average ABA of all pitchers in 2011 was 1.86.

Second, here is a “key” you can employ to understand the ABA totals.

Below 1.50: elite level performance
1.50-1.70: All-Star level
1.71-1.89: Solid major league hurler worthy of counting on in fantasy circles
1.91-2.10: Barley holding on to an effective role as a fantasy starter.
2.11 and up: Might as well line up a pitching machine

With that, here are some of the the hurlers that caught my eye broken down into innings pitched groupings.

2011 ABA LEADERS – Minimum 160 IP

1.31 – Clayton Kershaw
1.32 – Roy Halladay
1.35 – Justin Verlander
What a shock. The three hurlers who are widely regarded as options 1-3 in 2012 finished 1-3 in ABA in 2011.

1.43 – Cliff Lee
1.44 Cole Hamels
The Phillies had three of the top five arms according to ABA.

1.45 – Doug Fister
He didn’t beat himself with walks (37) or allow many long balls (11), a key in ABA.

1.59 – Brandon McCarthy
Only issued 25 walks all season, a tremendous number. For my thoughts on McCarthy see his Player Profile.

1.61 – Phil Humber
He finished last year in the top-20 in ABA. It would be surprising if he finished 2012 in the top-40.

1.69 – Gavin Floyd
Often overlooked, Floyd had a better ABA mark than Gio Gonzalez (1.71), Daniel Hudson (1.73) and Yovani Gallardo (1.77).

1.84 – Zack Greinke
Just slightly better than the league average in ABA (1.86), Greinke is still an elite arm. He just didn’t score well according to this measure. Remember, no one measure ever paints for the you entire picture.

1.87 – Brandon Morrow
You know I love the arm, but he simply must reign in the walks and cutting into the homer total would help as well.

1.97 – Bartolo Colon
Don’t be seduced by his strong first half last year.

2.04 – Ubaldo Jimenez
Seventy-eight walks will kill ya.

2.33 – Bronson Arroyo
The worst arm amongst qualifiers. Think it might have something to do with the 46 homers he allowed?

90-160 INNING HURLERS

1.39 – Johnny Cueto
He led this group in ABA since he fell four innings short of appearing in the top group.

1.49 – Jim Johnson
He doesn’t strike many out, an I’m not sure he’s a great 9th inning option, but he is rarely taken deep and doesn’t beat himself with the free passes.

1.72 – Scott Baker and Vance Worley
Baker’s arm appears to be sound this spring, but continued minor setbacks are an issue. Worley is starting to get a lot of love in the fantasy game.

1.87 – Homer Bailey
Though he had a solid WHIP of 1.28 his ABA was one hundredth worse than the league average.

2.37 – Edinson Volquez
He has a great arm, has a fantastic home park, and the last two years his ground ball rate is over 50 percent. Still, ABA shows you just how far he will have to come to return to relevance.

2.42 – Danny Duffy
He might look good this spring, but he looked awful last year.

LESS THAN 90 INNING ARMS

1.02 – Sergio Romo
Just like with SWIP, Romo comes out on top.

1.16 – Mariano Rivera
The AL leader, he gave up three homers and eight walks in over 61 innings last year.

1.23/1.24 – Craig Kimbrel/Jonny Venters
How apropos that the best lefty-righty duo out of the pen also finished with nearly identical ABA marks.

1.28 – Greg Holland
The Royals reliever had the same ABA mark as Sean Marshall and Jonathan Papelbon.

1.40 – John Axford, Brandon League
They both induce a ton of grounders and that helped to keep their total bases down.

1.50 – Aroldis Chapman, Javy Guerra
These two guys do it totally differently. One uses pure heat, the other get by more on “pitching.” Chapman walked a huge total of 41 guys in 50 innings but he allowed a mere two homers.

1.63 – Henry Rodriguez
Though he finished with a poor 1.51 WHIP, he has a big arm and ABA shows him to still be better than a big league average performer last year. In fact, his ABA was the same as Andrew Bailey.

1.90 – Joe Nathan
Nathan didn’t get along well with ABA last year, even though he had a strong second half. Seven homers in just 44.2 innings isn’t going to help anyone out.

1.99 – Huston Street
Ten homers in 58.1 innings caused his ABA to be pretty high (see Nathan).

2.16 – Phil Hughes
I keep warning about Hughes (see his Player Profile). The return to action of Andy Pettitte also is an issue.

For those of you who want to investigate further, here is the BBGuys-ABA-2011-PDF file that lists all men who tossed at least 40-innings last season.

Also… there is still time to pick up your copy of the 2012 BBGuys Draft Guide.

By Ray Flowers

K-BAD: Experts Draft, Part I

For the last few years I’ve been fortunate enough to be invited to participate an experts league with the crew from KFFL.com. The league, called K-BAD (KFFL’s Baseball Analysis Draft), pits 12 experts against one another in a 12 team mixed league draft with 28 man rosters. The participants for this years event are as follows:

Doug Anderson, RotoExperts
Howard Bender, Fangraphs
Mark Chamberlain, Baseball Sharks
Yours Truly
Steve Gardner, USA Today
Joe Hamrahi, Baseball Prospectus
Tim Heaney, KFFL
Bill Macey, Baseball HQ
Nicholas Minnix, KFFL
Jeff Paur, RTSports
Josh Shepardson, The Hardball Times
Pasko Varnica, Mastersball

*For full bios on all 12 of the participants click on this link to K-BAD Bios.

One of the unique aspects of this draft is that the participants are asked to record their thoughts as they work through the slow draft (it’s done over days while all of us pound out our daily work). As a result, KFFL presents a unique look into the mind of an expert to expose “experts” thoughts and decision making process at the time each of the selections are made. For the full 28 round analysis of the draft, from all the experts, simply click on the link to K-Bad Round Analysis.

Since I’m sure you’re all riveted as to how my team came together, I thought I would reproduce the results of my squad in a couple of articles here at BaseballGuys. So without further ado, here is how the draft played out for me.

Round 1: Miguel Cabrera
Albert Pujols was a strong consideration, as was Troy Tulowitzki, but ultimately I decided on Cabrera for three reasons: the addition of Prince Fielder, the fact that Cabrera can hit .340, and the soon to be third base eligibility he will pick up.

Round 2: Matt Holliday
Overlooked this year by some, I have little doubt he’ll return to something like a .300-25-100 line in St. Louis even with Albert Pujols out of the mix. Was really hoping that Andrew McCutchen would fall to me at this spot, but missed out on him by a few picks.

Round 3: Kevin Youkilis
Really didn’t love this pick. Was tempted to go with another outfielder, but settled for the stability that Youkilis should bring. Plus, everyone is likely to go heavy on third base, so the next time I pick I’ll be hard pressed to find a comparable talent to Youkilis.

Round 4: B.J. Upton
I was hoping that Ben Zobrist would make it back to me. Obviously he didn’t. I considered Michael Bourn but went with the better all-around performer in Upton. With Cabrera/Youkilis/Holliday I should be able to handle Upton’s poor average.

Round 5: Felix Hernandez
I don’t usually go for pitching early, but I’d bet the 5th and 6th rounds are going to be filled with starters being grabbed. There’s nothing wrong with grabbing a guy like Hernandez that should give me 200 Ks and 220-innings of elite work as my staff anchor. Also considered Zack Greinke.

Round 6: Howie Kendrick
A perennial option to hit .300, he’s also likely to go 10/10, possibly even 15/15. I was tempted to take Weeks, but look at Week’s games played mark – an average of just 107 games a season the past five years. Give me Kendrick who also has OF eligibility.

Round 7: Shane Victorino
Solid, consistent, across the board producer. That’s Shane Victorino. I was tempted by Shin-Soo Choo here, but I’m worried about Choo returning to .300, and I don’t know if he’s going to swipe 20 bases anymore either. Shane might be slightly boring to some, but he’s a fantastic 3rd outfielder.

Round 8: Mark Reynolds
People might laugh at this selection, but we all know that third base starts to thin out pretty quickly, and Reynolds covers me at first base as well. His average is woeful, but he is one of only five men to have 30 homers, 85 RBI and 75 runs scored each of the past three years.

Round 9: Derek Jeter
Boring? Yes. Old? Yes. Declining skill set? Yes. So why take him? After the selection of Reynolds with my last pick, I need the .290 average that Jeter should bring. There are more exciting options left at shortstop, but I’m looking for some average stability.

Round 10: Ricky Romero
It’s the time in the draft to start building my pitching staff. Romero may not be elite, but he’ll fit in nicely behind King Felix as I have two power sinking fastball types. Considered going closer, but I’ll wait there.

Round 11: Josh Beckett
I considered Matt Garza and Brandon Morrow here. Garza is as consistent as they come, and Morrow has massive upside, but I split the difference and grabbed Beckett.

Round 12: Brandon Morrow
There might be safer pitchers left on the board, but there are none with 250 K potential. If he keeps the walks down again he could shave a run off his ERA.

Round 13: Dustin Ackley
I was tempted to go with a fourth outfielder here and if I didn’t already have three third base eligible guys (Reynolds, Youkilis and Cabrera) I’d have taken Martin Prado.

Round 14: Sergio Santos
The run on closers commenced, and I jumped in the mix. Was tempted to an address my catcher’s spot which is open, but I went with that huge arm of Santos.

In PART II I’ll continue my look at the selections I made before giving an overall wrap up.

By Ray Flowers

Can You Wait on Pitching?

On Sunday night on Livin’ the Fantasy on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, we did a mock draft. Given that I’ve done so many mock drafts, an it gets old dominating every time (I’m so modest), I thought I would change things up an implement a crazy plan to see if I could do something highly unconventional (to say the least), and still put together a squad to be feared. Before I get to how my team turned out, here are the rules.

5×5 scoring
Mixed League
12 teams
Hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Pitcher: Any nine

Drafting out of the nine hole, I decided to see what would happen if I started out taking 5-straight outfielders. Check out the powerhouse outfield I was able to assemble in the first five rounds, it’s as impressive a unit as you’ll come across – Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Shane Victorino. Down Crawford for his poor performance in 2011, and Upton for his poor batting average, but that’s as dynamic a group of five outfielders you could possibly assemble. All five men are going 15/15 in 2012 if they are healthy, and it’s possible, even if not probable, that all five could go 20/20.

You’re saying to yourself – well that’s great Ray but your team is going to stink since you took this tact at the draft table. My reply is hogwash. Let’s take a look at my offensive squad.

C: Yadier Molina, Chris Iannetta
1B: Mark Reynolds
2B: Howie Kendrick
3B: Pablo Sandoval
MI/CI: Daniel Murphy, Martin Prado
OF: Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino
UT: Alex Rios

I have a couple of average killers in Upton, Reynolds an Iannetta, but I was able to add Prado who should bounce back to hit .300 (see his Player Profile) and Daniel Murphy (see his Player Profile) to help offset those guys (not to mention .300 types like Sandoval, Kendrick and CarGo that I also rostered). I’ve also got positional flexibility with the following guys qualifying in at least two spots: Reynolds, Kendrick, Murphy and Prado. I really like this unit, and if a guy like Alex Rios bounces back like I hope/expect (see his Player Profile) then this unit will be terrific.

OK, so my offense rocked, but what about my pitching? This is where PART II of my plan came into being. Not only did I take five outfielders with my first five picks, I waited until the 14th round to take my first pitcher (I took my last offensive player, my second catcher, in round 23, but from rounds 14-22 it was pitcher-rama). So my staff must be awful waiting that long to grab arms right? You be the judge.

Brandon Morrow
Ryan Madson
Cory Luebke
Kenley Jansen
Joe Nathan
Ryan Dempster
Frank Francisco
Ricky Nolasco
Bud Norris

OK my ratios may not be great, but I three closers (Madson, Nathan and Francisco) who could give me 90 saves. I also grabbed Jansen who might be one of the five most electric pitchers in baseball. If he closes 30 saves will happen. If he serves as a setup man in Los Angeles he might lead all relievers in baseball in strikeouts. Either way, this is an impressive foursome out of the bullpen (since I waited so long on starters I thought it would make sense to try and build a strong group of relievers to challenge for the lead in saves and to also help keep my ratios in check).

As for my starters, again, their ratios may not impress. But I ask you this – how many other teams in the league have five starters who appear to be well on their way to at least 150 strikeouts? Look at these strikeout totals from last year: Morrow (203), Dempster (191), Luebke (154 in 139.2 IP), Nolasco (148) and Norris (176). Remember that I didn’t take a single hurler until the 14th round. I’ll take a staff with power arms like this almost every day of the week.

Could a team like this, heck could this team, win a championship? I certainly think it could. I also hope that this little off kilter operation will help to point out that you don’t have to, no matter what anyone says, jump into the pitcher hopper early in drafts (in this draft pitchers went way too early with seven taken in the first 28 picks). Remember, I would still, in an actual draft, have six or seven bench rounds to bolster my pitching staff, and that opportunity to build more depth would certainly provide me plenty of chances to grab some arms that could bring me solid performances in 2012. It may have not come about in a conventional manner, but I like the way this squad turned out. What about you?

 DRAFT RESULTS

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April 21, 2011

(1) Ryan Braun signs massive contract extension.

(2) Logan Morrison likely headed to the DL with a foot injury.

(3) Gordon Beckham, Brent Morel really struggling.

(4) Ryan Zimmerman (abdominal strain) unlikely to return next Tuesday.

(5) Brandon Morrow off DL – will start Saturday.

(6) Bartolo Colon looks good in first start.

(7) Willie Bloomquist starting to slow.

By Ray Flowers

The Strikeout: Starters

You are all aware that I host The Fantasy Drive each day on SirusXM Fantasy Sports Radio right? If you weren’t aware I do, and you can catch the fantasy sports talk from 5-8PM EDT daily, Monday through Friday, on channels XM 147 and Sirius 211. Now that the infomercial section of the article is over, let’s get to the relevance of why I brought this up.

As part of my work with SiriusXM, I was tasked with putting together a 10-15 minute segment on the art of strikeout. When the wheels started turning I was able to work up a list of some rather interesting bits o’ information, so I thought I would share that with you all in print as well.

The 2010 Season

I don’t know if pitchers are getting better, if batters are getting worse, if it was a one anomaly, or if the removal of PED’s from the game has helped to level the playing field, but 2010 was a very good year for pitchers.

* In 2010 pitchers posted a K/9 mark of 7.13. That was the highest mark of the 21st century (from 2000-10 the big league average has been 6.67).

* The last five years the K/9 rate has gone up from 6.38 to 7.13 per nine.

The Targets

What numbers would you look to as “targets” when it comes to the strikeout? Here are some thoughts.

(1) Don’t overlook guys who didn’t post huge strikeout totals as it’s much more important to pay attention to the context of a strikeout, in this case the K/9 mark of a hurler. A perfect example is Bud Norris. He “only” had 158 Ks last year, but that’s because he pitched only 153.2 innings. On the other hand, his K/9 rate was as exceedingly impressive 9.25. Look at the ratio versus the raw K-total, it’s much more valuable when trying to discern who the strikeout aces are.

(2) In the fantasy game, I wouldn’t target a starter with a K/9 mark under 6.50 or a reliever under 7.50. Starters can have success below that level without a doubt – especially extreme ground ballers are but one example of the type of hurler that could still succeed with mediocre strike rates – but I’d prefer a staff of guys like Bud Morris and Brandon Morrow over the Derek Lowe’s and Jake Westbrook’s of the world every time.

(3) Even though this is about the strikeout, make sure to look at walks as well. Heat does you no good if you can’t throw strikes (hello Oliver Perez). In 2010 pitchers posted a 2.17 K/BB mark thanks to the extra strikeouts and a 5-year low of 3.28 in the BB/9 column. As a result, the 2.17 K/BB mark was the best in the 21st century.

Starting Pitchers

With that primer, here is a list of the top strikeout artists, as defined by their K/9 marks, from the 2010 season.

K/9 Amongst qualifiers – minimum 162 IP

9.79 Tim Lincecum
9.74 Jon Lester
9.73 Yovani Gallardo
9.54 Jonathan Sanchez
9.44 Francisco Liriano
9.35 Jered Weaver
9.34 Clayton Kershaw
9.21 Mat Latos
9.11 Josh Johnson
9.10 Cole Hamels
8.79 Justin Verlander
8.78 Colby Lewis
8.69 Ryan Dempster
8.69 Ubaldo Jimenez
8.46 Max Scherzer
8.36 Felix Hernandez
8.32 Adam Wainwright
8.28 James Shields
8.27 Dan Haren
8.22 Wandy Rodriguez

If we drop down the innings pitched mark a bit lower, here is the list that we come up with (players in italics are new additions to the above list).

K/9 – minimum 100 IP

10.95 Brandon Morrow
9.79 Tim Lincecum
9.74 Jon Lester
9.73 Yovani Gallardo
9.54 Jonathan Sanchez
9.52 Manny Parra
9.44 Francisco Liriano
9.35 Jered Weaver
9.34 Clayton Kershaw
9.25 Bud Norris
9.21 Mat Latos
9.11 Josh Johnson
9.10 Cole Hamels
9.04 Jhoulys Chacin
8.79 Justin Verlander
8.78 Colby Lewis
8.69 Ryan Dempster
8.69 Ubaldo Jimenez
8.46 Max Scherzer
8.41 Hisanori Takahashi

Mr. Morrow ends up leading baseball with a K/9 rate of 10.95. If he were able to maintain that rate over 190 innings that would lead to 231 strikeouts, the same total that Tim Lincecum posted which was the best mark in the NL. However, Brandon Morrow, Manny Parra, Bud Norris and Jhoulys Chacin, while major strikeout contributors, all posted a BB/9 mark over 4.00, so they certainly come with risk.

Starters to Target

The following group of pitchers are those starters you should target, ones with a K/9 of 7.00 and a K/BB above 2.75 last season (min. 100 IP). There were only 26 such hurlers in 2010.

Roy Halladay
Tommy Hanson
Cole Hamels
Cliff Lee
Matt Cain
Tim Lincecum
Felix Hernandez
Mat Latos
Jered Weaver
Zack Greinke
Jake Peavy
Josh Johnson
Shaun Marcum
Colby Lewis
Dan Haren
Justin Verlander
Francisco Liriano
Adam Wainwright
Roy Oswalt
Scott Baker
Ted Lilly

Here are five more who made the list who might not have been obvious considering the other aspects of their pitching performance last season..

Ricky Nolasco: The Marlin’s hurler has a 4.81 ERA past two years despite some excellent work on the hill. His K/9 mark of 8.98 is 7th best in baseball in that time, while his 4.44 K/BB ratio is 4th best. Buy low on him if you can.

Travis Wood: The rookie had a rather solid K/9 mark of 7.54, and with a lack of walks he was able to post a strong 3.31 K/BB.

James Shields: – Despite 15 Loses and 5.18 ERA, Shields actually posted the best K/9 of his career at 8.28. Shields also posted a strong 3.67 K/BB, just slightly off his career 3.70 mark. Buy him at a discount this year, he’s as good as he has ever been.

Hiroki Kuroda: The Dodgers’ depth starter had a 7.29 K/9 (the best of career), which led to a similarly impressive 3.31 K/BB mark. He isn’t a fantasy ace, but he is a fine option to round out a staff.

Jason Hammel : The Rockies’ righty had a career best 7.14 K/9 and a solid 3.00 K/BB (it was 3.17 in ’09). He will be a bargain on draft day after posting a poor 4.81 ERA in ’10.

Solid Pitchers to Avoid
Ground ball types: Carl Pavano (4.76 K/9), Mike Pelfrey (4.99), Bronson Arroyo (5.05), Dallas Braden (5.28),Fausto Carmona (5.31), Tim Hudson (5.47), Jake Westbrook (5.68), Brett Cecil (6.10), Derek Lowe (6.32).

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August 10, 2010

(1) Ryan Braun’s wrist an issue.

(2) The Mike Gonzalez situation explained.

(3) Jose Guillen on NL West contenders minds.

(4) Brandon Morrow to have next start moved back until Tuesday as I predicted would happen on Monday in Morrow Makes History – Sort Of.

(5) Mike Leake could lose starting spot to Homer Bailey.

(6) Rich Harden to have start pushed back at least until Sunday.

(7) Gil Meche hopes to return to bullpen this season.

(8) Nyjer Morgan’s hip is an issue.

By Ray Flowers

Morrow Makes History – Sort Of

Brandon Morrow Strikes Out 17

Out of the cornfields he strode to the mound, his right arm smoldering after warming up in the bullpen. He took the mound, pulled his cap low across his eyes, reared back, and began to dismantle the opposition with some of the filthiest stuff the game is ever seen. He was untouchable, throwing strikes at will. For 8.2 innings not one batter could pick up a hit as Ray after Ray returned to the dugout with his head held low. Evan Longoria broke up the no-hitter with a grounder to the right side of the infield to break up the no-no in the ninth, a mere out from history. Undaunted, the flame throwing righty struck out Dan Johnson on his 137th pitch to end the one hitter. All told the California native struck out 17 batters, walked two batters, allowed just that single hit and obviously didn’t allow a run.

That pitcher is Brandon Morrow.

The strikeouts, one off the Blue Jays team record, were a surprise, but at the same time time Morrow does lead baseball with a 10.67 K/9 mark. He usually struggles with control, his BB/9 mark is 4.03, but clearly we saw yesterday what can happen when he locks in his pitches. Can he continue to throw strikes? That’s a good/open question. There is also the issue of how his arm will rebound from a career-high pitch total. Brandon has only two other games this season with as many as 110 pitches, so the hope is that this big pitch total from yesterday doesn’t weigh him down moving forward. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the Blue Jays have him skip a start, or at best to severely limit his pitch totals the next few times out.

Closer Changes?

It’s that time of year for bullpens. There are a handful of teams that just might be making changes to the backend of their bullpens.

Florida Marlins: Leo Nunez has a 2.91 ERA, 49 Ks and a 4.08 K/BB mark in 46.1 innings. Those numbers are all strong. However, he has blown each of his last two chances and is 26-for-33 in converting saves on the year. Moreover, he has allowed six runs in his last three innings and seven in 5.2 innings. The team hasn’t said they will make a move, but it might be closing in changing things up in the ninth inning. “For now, he’s our closer, but if he doesn’t make an adjustment, we may have to explore other options — maybe do a closer by committee,” Marlins’ manager Edwin Rodriguez said.

Milwaukee Brewers: Trevor Hoffman is three saves from 600, so the Brewers have an interest in helping him to make history before the year is over. He has pitched really well of late – 1.42 ERA over his last 19 appearances – so well in fact that he is now the co-closer with John Axford. “The thing with Hoffman is he’s earned his way back to saving games,” manager Ken Macha said. “That’s not to eliminate Axford from doing things, too, because he’s done nothing to write his name out.” Hoffman’s value goes up, Axford’s obviously goes down.

Washington Nationals: Drew Storen, the Nats closer of the future, isn’t quite ready to take over the closer reigns right now. “”For me, he is kind of a work in progress,” manager Jim Riggleman said. “He is showing flashes of a really fine guy at the back end of the bullpen — closer potentially.” Look for Storen, Sean Burnett and Tyler Clippard to share work in the 9th inning until one emerges.

Injury Notes

Andrew Bailey (rib/side) will likely miss at least another week more.

Daric Barton (shoulder) was forced from the game on Sunday. It is unclear if he will require a DL stint.

Gordon Beckham (groin) might end up missing a few days, though the injury isn’t thought to be serious.

A.J. Burnett (back) should be able to make his next start on Tuesday.

Eric Chavez (back/neck) is considering retirement.

Dustin Pedroia (foot) hopes he can return in about 10 days.

Alex Gordon (heel) says he is improving. Will continue to play through it.

Carlos Guillen (calf) has been activated from the DL.

Kyle Lohse (forearm) will make at least one more start in the minors.

Kris Medlen (elbow) will wait one more week before deciding if he needs Tommy John surgery.

Alex Rodriguez (shin) returned to action on Sunday for the Yankees.

Jason Varitek (foot) took BP on Sunday. There is still no timetable for his return.

Vernon Wells (toe) will undergo more tests on Monday after he injured his toe making a wonderful catch on Sunday trying to help Morrow to a no-hitter.

Jack Wilson (hand) had a fall at home and broke the fifth metacarpal bone in his right hand. He’ll be placed on the DL.

Notable Transactions

The Braves purchased the contract of Mike Minor.

The Giants will promote Emmanuel Burriss on Monday.

The Mariners will promote Chris Woodward on Monday.

The Orioles sent Troy Patton to the minors.

The Phillies sent John Mayberry to minors.

The Dodgers designated for assignment Garret Anderson and purchased the contract of Jay Gibbons.

The Tigers sent Will Rhymes to the minors when they activated Carlos Guillen.

The Nationals sent Collin Balester to the minors and recalled Jason Marquis.

Prospect Watch

The Athletics will call up Chris Carter, and Jeff Larish for that matter, on Monday. Carter has 27 bombs and 89 RBI at Triple-A this season, and those numbers go along nicely with his totals of the last two years: 38 HRs, 104 RBI and 28 HRs, 115 RBI last year. The kid can slug it, and with the injury to Daric Barton, Carter just might get the chance to play every day in Oakland.

By Ray Flowers

Big Names, Big Production

Wednesday is always an odd day. Memories of last weekend are fading, and you’re still days away from heading out on the town with your homies to cause some trouble, so you’re basically just laying in wait for something to happen. What I’m saying is that it’s a no-man’s kinda day. As a result, it’s hardly a shock that there is no real theme with the players I’m going to discuss other than the fact that they have all been performing pretty well of late.

Josh Hamilton is a beast. How crazy good has he been? Since the start of June he has hit .434 with 14 homers and 47 RBI in 49 games. Those are numbers that wind up leading you to the MVP award. Sick.

Matt Garza, who has come a long way since he was a Twins’ rookie wearing a My Little Pony backpack (yeah, that’s him in the photo above),  tossed the fifth no-hitter of the season on Monday night. Do you know what the record is for one season? In 1884, yeah it was a totally different game back then I know, there where eight no-hitters (the last time there were five no-hitters in a season was 1991). Moreover, since the Rays’ fell in no-hitters twice this season, they became only the third team in baseball history to be involved in three no-hitters in a single season. The other two teams were the White Sox and the St. Louis Browns — in 1917. As for Garza, he has offered a slight up tick in his performance compared to last season. He is 11-5 and that is great, though his ERA is up a smidge from 3.95 last year to 4.06 this season, while his WHIP is a virtual match (1.26 to 1.24). The only real negative in the fantasy game is that he has seen his K-rate dwindle substantially from 8.38 per nine last season down to 6.78 which is below his 7.19 career mark. If he were to pick up the whiffs we could be looking at a top-25 pitcher the rest of the way.

The single season triple record is 36 by Chief Wilson in 1912. No on in baseball even has nine triples this season.

Brandon Morrow – welcome to the world of fantasy relevance. On May 31st he had a 6.00 ERA and was having a devil of a time throwing strikes. Since that point he has made nine starts going just 3-2, but his ratios have improved dramatically. His WHIP has gone down to 1.29, a big step for a guy who had a 1.58 mark over his first 11 appearances, and his ERA has plummeted down to 3.21. Why the success? He’s maintained his K/9 mark mark with an impressive 9.48 mark but his walk rate has tanked – which in this case is obviously a great thing. After walking 34 batters in his first 57 innings – good for a 5.37 BB/9 mark – he has walked a mere 19 hitters in his last 56 innings leading to a 3.05 mark. Basically he has gone from being Oliver Perez to being a better than big league pitcher in terms of his control. The Blue Jays might limit his workload as the season wears on, and his final season numbers likely won’t look that great, but don’t forget about how good Morrow can be when he’s throwing strikes when you do participate in your draft in 2011.

Javier Vazquez has been a massive letdown this season with a 9-7 record, a 4.54 ERA and a 1.24 WHIP. However, should he be viewed that way? He was never going to repeat his performance from last season (15-10, 2.87 ERA, 1.03 WHIP), especially when he went to the AL. Also, his production has been a near match for his work with the Yankees back in 2004 (14-10, 4.91 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). At the same time if you were an astute wheeler and dealer, you may have come out way ahead here. Through six starts this season he was 1-4 with a 8.10 ERA in a truly dreadful start to the year. However, he has been nails since that point going 8-3 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and a 6.90 K/9 mark. That’s difference making production from the righty. Don’t be afraid to look beyond a player’s season long numbers when you’re trying to figure out his value for the rest of the season.

By Ray Flowers

A Day at the Beach

You’re probably thinking to yourself – why the eye candy above? A couple of reasons actually. First, the one on the left is my girlfriend. OK, maybe not (the lady I’m seeing is actually even better looking). Secondly, I’m actually “off” work today so I plan on going to the beach to work on my tan and there is always a chance that I’ll run into a bunch of bikini clad babes so I’m just trying to get into character. Third, the majority of my readers are dudes, and therefore I’m sure they won’t be complaining about two hotties in bikinis. Why am I writing this entry if I have the day off? Well, I guess I’m just a glutton for punishment. Either that or the Mai Tai hasn’t kicked in yet so I’ve yet to realize I don’t have to write today.

Bryce Harper is almost certain to be the first player selected in the MLB Entry Draft later today. In case you’ve recently been in Iceland without a television set or access to the internet or radio, Harper is seen as a can’t miss kid with a huge arm and a potentially once in a generation type power bat. He got his GED so he could skip a year of high school, went on to demolish junior college pitching for a year (.442-29-89), and the Nationals see the unlimited potential his swing brings as reason a plenty to take him first overall The Nats may choose to move the kid out from behind the dish to the outfield in order to prolong his career. If they do make that decision his road to the bigs will likely be much shorter than if he were to continue to don the tools of ignorance

Why do the police ask you ‘did you make complete stop’ when they pull you over? Did I miss something about the definition of “stop” that requires the word “complete” to be placed in front of it?

Paul Konerko might be on the trading block according to Buster Posey, I mean Buster Olney. Whether or not that is true we all know that a bunch of veterans will be moved between now and the trade deadline. Hopefully, if you plan in an NL or AL only league, you can hold on to players after they are traded, because if you can’t the balance of power in your league will certainly be affected when the players are moved. Unfortunately not all leagues allow you to hold on to players, and that always presents a huge problem. My advice? Spend your FAAB money early and often. Fred Lewis isn’t great, but 400 ABs from him will be less costly than adding that big power bat that ends up being moved at the deadline, and in those 400 ABs he’ll likely produce enough value to be on par with what you’ll get from a 200 at-bat deadline add.

Where is the sun right now? Come on sun, I need you to lend a hand when I get to the beach.

Two arms I was high on coming into the year that got off to slow starts are starting to round into form. For the Brewers, Manny Parra had 10 Ks on Sunday and seems to have solidified a spot for himself in the starting rotation. He has been a K-machine this season with 37 strikeouts in 36.1 innings, but he still needs to curtail issuing free passes (4.71 BB/9) to truly reach his potential and to remain in the starting rotation. The other arm belongs to local boy Brandon Morrow (he was born in Santa Rosa and went to the University of California). The hard throwing righty owns a dynamic and prolific strike inducing wing that has led to 74 Ks in just 64 IP (that is the sixth best mark in the AL). In his last two outings he has walked a total of three batters over 14 innings as he has allowed just two runs while posting nine strikeouts. Just like Parra the key is throwing strikes, and when he does, like he is right now, he can be a pretty dominating force.

By Ray Flowers