Draft Day Challenge, May 21

BaseballGuys.com. has partnered with DraftDay.com to give all my wonderful followers, that’s you, the chance to play the game on a daily basis. On Tuesday and Thursday’s here at the site, every week, I’ll be giving you some insight into the mind of The Oracle as I will give you some of my best plays for the day – even if I’m willing to admit that daily games are a bit of a crap shoot given the difficulty in predicting how a handful of at-bats will work out.

To join a daily league remember to visit DraftDay.com by clicking on the link to their site.

One other source for those of you on Twitter.

@MLBDailyLineups – lists all the lineups in one spot so you can make sure you don’t have someone in your lineup that is sitting on the bench that day.

CATCHERS
1. Brian McCann
2. Salvador Perez

McCann loves to see Mike Pelfrey on the hill. In 39 at-bats the slugging catcher has hit .462 with two homers and 10 RBIs. Yowzahs.

Perez is batting .3008 on the year and has pushed that mark to .368 over the past week. He’s also hit .323 against righties this year. So what if he doesn’t have an at-bat against Bud Norris.

FIRST BASE
1. Albert Pujols
2. Jordan Pacheco

What was once a lock now seems like a risk. Pujols has hit .280 with two homers the past week, and he faces Aaron Harang who he hits pretty well (.311 with five homers and 15 RBIs over 74 at-bats).

After going superstar in Pujols (former superstar?), let’s go with a nobody in Pacheco. Jordan has a hit in his last three starts. Jordan is hitting .400 the past week. Jordan has hit .340 at home. He’s hit .500 (18 ABs) against the D’backs in his career. Jordan has four hits in 11 at-bats (.364) against Ian Kennedy.

SECOND BASE
1. Dan Uggla
2. Brandon Phillips

Uggla hammers Pelfrey hitting .406 with 11 RBIs in 32 at-bats which is enough for me to overlook the fact that he has one hit in his last 14 at-bats overall.

Go big or go home with Phillips. Not only has the guy knocked in 38 runners in 43 games this season, he’s also hit .300 with a homer and seven RBIs the past week. He’s gone 5/13 (.385) with two homers against Jonathon Niese.

THIRD BASE
1. Pedro Alvarez
2. Eric Chavez

Alvarez is only hitting .147 at home this season (and .201 overall), but he’s gone deep twice in the past week, is facing Matt Garza in his first start this season, and has gone 5-for-10 with a HR against Garza in their confrontations.

Chavez is hitting .343 on the year and he’s batting an unbelievable .571 with six RBIs the past week. He faces Jhoulys Chacin who he has never seen before on Tuesday.

SHORTSTOP
1. Yunel Escobar
2. Didi Gregorius

Escobar has a hit in eight of his last nine games, and he’s driven in six runs in his last four outings. He faces Ramon Ortiz, you know the old guy who we haven’t consistently seen take a turn in the big league since before Obama was elected President.

Gregorius is hitting like he never has in his life before, but we’re not worried about the fact that he has no chacne to keep that up the rest of the way. Didi has one hit in two at-bats against Chacin in his career but he has six hits in his last two games and has gone 8-for-13 against the Rockies this season.

OUTFIELD
1. Nate McLouth
2. Matt Holliday

How excited would you be about a player if I told you he had seven hits, including four doubles, in nine at-bats against a pitcher? That’s what has happened when McLouth has faced Phil Hughes.

Holliday has hit Edinson Volquez hard with a .412 average, two homers and four RBIs in 17 at-bats. Carlos Beltran has also hit .417 with five RBIs in 12 ABs against the righty.

STARTING PITCHERS
1. Zack Greinke
2. Wandy Rodriguez
3. Jose Fernandez
4. Jerome Williams

Greinke looked sharp in his return from the DL and he gets to return to his former home in Milwaukee. He faces a Brewers team that has, get this, produced two hits against in him 34 at-bats. Two. He also faces Hiram Burgos which doesn’t hurt.

Wandy has been very good this season and in four home starts this season he’s gone 3-1 with a 1.35 ERA. He faces a Cubs team that isn’t very good offensively, and he’s also posted a 2.29 ERA and 1.04 WHIP against them in their last six meetings.

Fernandez has gone at least six innings in each of his last three starts allowing a total of five earned runs for the Marlins. He’s also struck out 21 batters in those 20 innings. He faces a Phillies team that is without Howard and Ruiz.

Williams has pitched well this year, there’s no way he can sustain that 3.05 ERA and 1.10 WHIP, but he faces the Mariners Tuesday. The entire Mariners team has hit .228 with one home run in 114 at-bats against Williams.
By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Second Base

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

2012 CATCHERS

2012 FIRST BASE

2012 SECOND BASE Top-10

1 Robinson Cano
2 Dustin Pedroia
3 Ian Kinsler
4 Brandon Phillips
5 Ben Zobrist
6 Dan Uggla
7 Howie Kendrick
8 Rickie Weeks
9 Dustin Ackley
10 Danny Espinosa

Cano is headed to the Hall of Fame – despite what happened to him in the playoffs. You read it here first (OK, maybe not). Cano hit .313 with a career best 33 homers while he knocked in 94 runs and scored 105 times. Stupendous yet again.

Pedroia hit .290 with 15 homers, 65 RBIs, 81 runs and 20 steals, a fantastic season for a mere mortal. For Pedroia though it was his worst full season effort. Give him credit for playing through injuries even if he didn’t live up to expectations.

Kinsler was one homer from going 20/20 with 100 runs scored, but for the third time in four years he hit in the .250′s. That low average seems to be a small price to pay for a guy who averages 25 homers, 81 RBIs, 115 runs ans 27 steals per 162 games in his career.

Phillips came into the year being overlooked by a few, but in the end he was what he always is – a superb play at second base. Phillips hit .281 with 18 homers, 77 RBIs, 86 runs scored and 15 steals. Ho hum, another impressive effort for the Reds’ second sacker.

Zobrist will qualify at second, outfield and shortstop next year meaning he will be one of the most sought after players in the fantasy game. For the second straight season he hit 20 homers with 70 RBIs and 85 runs scored, and for the 4th straight year he swiped at least 14 bases.

Uggla had more homers than any NL second baseman other than Aaron Hill (26) and Rickie Weeks (21) with 19, and his total of 78 RBIs was second only to Hill’s 85 in the Senior Circuit. Still, it was a down season as both numbers were career worsts. He still scored 86 runs though that .220 batting average made his overall effort lackluster given his stature in the game.

Kendrick had a great season for a second sacker in 2011 with a fantasy line of .285-18-63-86-14. He failed to match that effort in ’12 with a fantasy line of .287-8-67-57-14. He finished two homers short of a 10-10 season for a 4th straight campaign but at least he hit .287 so he didn’t kill you.

Weeks was the worst regular in baseball in the first half as he hit .199. Things improved greatly in the second half when Weeks finally remembered that he is one of the most talented second basemen in the game. Over his last 76 contests Weeks hit .261 with 13 homers, 34 RBIs, 51 runs and 10 steals. The 21 homers, 63 RBIs, 85 runs and 16 steals were solid, but there is that .230 batting average hanging over his head to diminish his value.

Ackley was the #2 selection in the 2009 Draft and the thought was that he would be able to contribute immediately with his advanced approach at the plate. Well, it didn’t happen in 2012 as he hit a sickly .226. His others numbers were passable for a middle infield option – 12 HRs, 50 RBIs, 84 runs, 13 steals – but the average was a killer. Had surgery in the offseason for an ankle issue. He’ll be fine well in advance of the start of next season.

Espinosa was a liability with his .247 average, but he was a noticeably better than Ackley in the counting categories with 17 HRs, 56 RBIs, 82 runs scored and 20 steals. Unfortunately he also struck out a vomit inducing 189 times. He’s been virtually the exact same performer in each of his two full seasons (.236-21-66-72-17).

Hit: Daniel Murphy (#14)
I was made fun of for spending too heavily on Murphy in NL LABR, but he certainly justified my support. While he didn’t do anything that really stood out (.291-6-65-62-10), his overall body of work was pretty darn solid for an NL-only play considering that he qualified at first, second and third base.

Miss: Dustin Ackley

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. One, it’s about time to cut loose and have some fun. Two, I’ll be giving some plays for Friday and Saturday that would seem to be in prime position to succeed. Third, at the bottom of this piece is a chance to partake in a FREE daily fantasy baseball game with a chance to play for $250 in prizes. Psst. I’m in the league too. Think you can best The Oracle?

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Adam Dunn vs. Clayton Kershaw:  Up to 22 homers and 50 RBIs, Dunn has had a great bounce back season. However, why on earth would I suggest playing a guy who has hit .183 against lefties this season when that same player has hit .223 against port siders in his career? It’s only a handful of games mind you, but Dunn has annihilated Kershaw in 11 at-bats going deep three times, driving in seven runs and batting .636. That’s why.

Scott Podsednik vs. Ryan Dempster: Three times in his last four games Pods has produced two or more hits, and in 51 at-bats with the Red Sox this year he has hit .373 with four steals. Facing Dempster he’s also been a producer with seven hits in 18 at-bats (.389) and he’s also walked four times leading to a .500 OBP.

Ben Revere vs. Yovani Gallardo: The speedster with the Twins has a hit in nine of 10 games to raise his average up to .339 (he’s had two or more hits in six of those games). He’s also swiped six bags while scoring nine runs in those 10 outings. Give him a matchup with a pitcher that he’s produced four hits in 10 at-bats against and he would seem to be a borderline must start.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ryan Dempster vs. Red Sox: Dempster has allowed one or zero runs in three of his last four outings. He’s also tossed 15 scoreless innings in his last two outings while walking a single batter to lower his ratios to Maddux-like levels (2.31 ERA, 1.03 WHIP). Current Sox batters are hitting only .246 against Dempster as well, so are you willing to take a shot on the righty in this matchup?

Kyle Lohse vs. Royals: Current Royals hitters have only 50 at-bats off Lohse, but to say they have lacked success would be a massive understatement. The club has hit .240 against him with a .615 OPS as they have failed to go deep, have drawn only one walk, and struck out seven times.

Ryan Vogelsong vs. Mariners: In 30 outings last season Vogelsong had a 2.71 ERA. In 11 starts this year that number is 2.26. Over his last eight starts six times he’s permitted one/zero earned runs, and the two times he didn’t he allowed a total of five runs over 13.1 innings.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Rajai Davis vs. Cliff Lee: Davis has stolen four bags in his last seven games, and though he has only 99 at-bats on the year he’s swiped 14 bases. He’s also hit a fair clip over his last 31 games batting .278. There isn’t much to go on with this matchup but in 11 at-bats Davis has produced six hits (.545 average).

Brandon Phillips vs. Jonathon Niese: Brandon Phillips has five hits in 10 at-bats against Niese, and two of those hits have been big flies. Phillips has also really kicked his game into gear in June hitting .353 with three homers and 13 RBI in 12 games.

Gaby Sanchez vs. James Shields: If you want about the most random call you could possibly find, look no further. Sanchez has produced six hits, including a homer, and five RBI in 13 at-bats against Shields, good for a .462 average. Of course Sanchez is hitting, if you can call it that, .190 on the year and has only two hits in 15 at-bats since he was recalled from the minors.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Chad Billingsley vs. White Sox: Chad has allowed two runs over 14 inning in his last two starts leading to two victories. Billingsley has also struck out eight batters in three of his last four outings. The question is – which Billingsley will show up? The guy who throws strikes or the one who nibbles and walks four or five batters and gets into trouble?

Tim Lincecum vs. Mainers: Once more into the breach… this might be it. I might have to change my thoughts on Lincecum if he doesn’t come through with a strong outing. (1) His rotation spot is in danger (the Giants might move him to the bullpen to work on things). (2) He’s basically returning home to pitch in Seattle. (3) The Mariners have the 4th worst batting average (.234) and the second worst OBP (.297) in baseball. This is it Timmy – make it happen.

James Shields vs. Marlins: I know I just mentioned how Sanchez hits Shields hard, but that’s not something the rest of the Marlins can say. If we remove Sanchez work the Marlins club has hit .217 with a mere seven RBIs over 129 at-bats.

CONTEST – TAKE ON RAY FLOWERS

Daily Joust is offering you a chance to make some free money, and you get to also take me on in the process (if you beat me you get another $5 bonus).

BaseballGuys has partnered with DailyJoust.com to give everyone an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season. There is a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday June 15th starting at 7pm EST.

That’s right, it’s FREE to enter, and you get a chance to play for $250 in prizes (there is also a 40% deposit bonus up to $400).

Choose your roster with the following positional requirements: C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

1. To register at DailyJoust and make your selections for the contest click on the BBGuys Landing Page and sign up.

2.  Watch the live scoring on DailyJoust to see how your team stacks up against the competition – and me.

Are you game?

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Brandon Phillips vs. J.A. Happ: Just like Uggla below, Phillips doesn’t have much of a track record against the pitcher he is facing. At the same time, what he has done is  hard to ignore. In nine at-bats Phillips has five hits leading to a .556 batting average against Happ. Three of those five hits were dingers, and that has helped to push his RBI total top five in this tasty matchup.

Ryan Theriot vs. Paul Maholm: Looking for an under the radar play on Friday? If you are, it would be wise to look to the Giants’ Theriot who has had quite an extensive run of success against the lefty with the Cubs. Theriot has hit .343 with a .410 OBP in 35 at-bats against Maholm over 35 at-bats.

Dan Uggla vs. Stephen Strasburg: How in the world could I suggest starting a guy against a pitcher who has a 2.64 ERA, 1.10 WHIP an a 10.86 K/9 mark? It’s been a mere eight at-bats but Uggla has had phenomenal success against the righty from Washington with six hits including two homers leading to seven RBI. Pretty darn amazing.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Wade Miley vs. Padres: The young lefty has held his own and then some through 10 appearances this year as he has gone 6-1 with a 2.41 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. He still has a poor 2.00 K/BB ratio, that 5.50 K/9 mark is weak, and two homers in 52.1 innings – let’s just say that isn’t likely to continue. Still, in this matchup against the Padres in Petco, it’s lock and load time.

Felipe Paulino vs. Athletics: The A’s have a historically bad offense, an I’m not making that up. Paulino has a 2.03 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 34 Ks through 31.1 innings this season. Moreover, three of his five outings this year he has held the opponent scoreless. I’m going to ignore his lone performance against the A’s last September 5th (4.1 IP, 6 ER).

Randy Wolf vs. Pirates: Why not complete the trifecta of starters against the worst offenses in baseball? Wolf has struggled this year big time (5.73 ERA, 1.67 WHIP), but he has looked better of late allowing three or fewer runs in three of his last four starts. He’s also facing a Pirates club that he has gone 9-3 against in his career with 112 Ks in 124 innings. Plus, the club from Pittsburgh has the lowest average in the NL (.218), the worst OBP in baseball (.272) and has scored 17 runs less than any other club in the game (147).

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Ryan Ludwick vs. Wandy Rodriguez: Wandy has pitched well this season, and the perception is that Ludwick has really struggled this year. The truth is in the middle perhaps. Ludwick has had a lot of success against Wandy with two homer an a .314 batting average in 35 at-bats against the lefty and he’s also gone deep twice while knocking in eight runners in his last eight games.

Hanley Ramirez vs. Cole Hamels: HanRam has barely been a .250 hitter since the start of the 2011 season and he’s also hit a mere .264 against Hamels in 53 at-bats in the match up. Why in the world would I suggest paying close attention to Hanley on Friday then? Of the 14 hits that Hanley has against the lefty Ramirez has 10 doubles. Ten. That’s a pace for 100 doubles over 530 at-bats. Wow is right. Is it a stretch to think that he could lift one of those pitches into the seats?

Ichiro Suzuki vs. Gavin Floyd: Ichiro has struggled this year, at least when compared to his previous levels of excellence, but he’s pretty much looked very much like the guy we saw for most of 2011. Middling. Still, Ichiro has a track record of success against Floyd as he has hit .361 in 36 at-bats. Given that Floyd has also allowed 21 runs in his last 14.2 innings it would seem like a pretty good time to trust Ichiro.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mat Latos vs. Astros: Latos has been uneven this year, all those that own him understand that, but he’s won his last four decisions and has allowed three or fewer runs in four of his last five outings during which time his ERA has gone down from 5.97 to 4.58. He’s also struck out 18 batters while issuing only four walks in his last three starts, so as long as he can keep the ball in the park – he allowed an amazing five homers in his last start – he should have a solid outing against an Astros club that he is 3-1 with a 3.21 ERA, 0.89 WHIP against in his career.

Ricky Nolasco vs. Phillies: Off the top it sounds a bit crazy, but think about it. Nolasco will be facing a Phillies club without Howard/Utley, Jimmy Rollins can barely hit his way out of a papersack right now,  and Carlos Ruiz is less than 100 percent physically. There’s also the fact that Nolasco has long had success against the club from Philly going 6-4 with a 3.55 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 83.2 innings.

Edinson Volquez vs. D’backs: Volquez pitches at home Saturday, and he’s had a ton of success there this season even though his record is 1-3 (3.19 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 42 Ks in 42.1 innings). He faces a D’backs club that he held to two runs in seven innings in his second start of the year, and in his career he has 28 punchouts in 24.1 innings against the club from Arizona. He’s also allowed three or fewer runs in nine of his 11 starts this season. It’s not always pretty, sometimes he has trouble throwing strikes, but he has been able to limit the damage, for the most part, in his first year in San Diego.

CONTESTS

To sign up for any game with DailyJoust simply click on the link just provided. You’ll get a chance to win cash, sometimes for free (if you are new to the site you can sign up for a Free Roll and try your hand at putting together a daily fantasy squad that could allow you to win some cash for nothing). Care to test your talents and baseball knowledge?

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your crunk on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

For those of you unaware of just what DailyJoust is and what the offer, click on the link to BBGuys Partners with DailyJoust. The bottom line is DJ allows you the chance to play daily fantasy baseball, choose a team today an another one tomorrow if you want, all the while giving you the chance to make some real money. Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Robinson Cano: I feel a bit stupid suggesting you should starts Cano, it’s not like there is anyone out there who doesn’t know he’s a HOF bound second sacker, but in 20 career at-bats against the Red Sox Clay Buchholz he’s racked up nine hits for a .450 batting average.

Ryan Ludwick: I’m not a huge fan, and think the Reds made a mistake not just going with Chris Heisey, but there is no denying the track record of Ludwick against the Cubs as he’s hit .279 with 10 homers, 37 RBI an a .843 OPS in 201 at-bats. He’s been even more dominant at Wrigley hitting .349 with seven homers an a 1.041 OPS in 109 at-bats there.

Ryan Raburn: He has only 12 at-bats against Matt Harrison, but he’s been a superstar in the matchup batting .667 with two bombs, seven RBIs an a 2.026, yes that’s a two, OPS. As you read about, you did read Quick Starting Pitchers right?, I’m not a huge fan of Harrison either.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Ted Lilly: In his first outing he allowed one unearned run to the Padres. He faces Houston Friday, a team he has thoroughly dominated in his career: Lilly is 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 7.27 K/9 and a 3.50 K/BB. Toss in the fact that the Astros aren’t very good, and this is a dream matchup on paper.

And for the second straight weeks, two oldies but goodies…

Carlos Zambrano: After allowing one run to the Astros in his last outing, why not go to the well again? Big Z has a matchup with the Nats next, and he’s had a lot of success against that organization in his career with an 8-3 record, 3.35 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 73 Ks in 78 career innings.

Barry Zito: Through 16 innings Zito has allowed 11 base runners (0.69 WHIP), and just two earned runs (1.13 ERA). We all know the dream will end soon, but it may last another start. Zito has a 3.31 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, with 30 Ks in 35.1 innings, against his opponent Friday – the Mets.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Travis Hafner: We’re only talking 12 at-bats here, and that isn’t necessarily enough data to draw any sort of lasting conclusion, but Hafner has four hits, including two homers, against the Athletics’ Brandon McCarthy. Hafner has also knocked in six runners in the matchup while also garnering two walks.

Brandon Phillips: The only thing that seems likely to stop him on Saturday is his bum wheel. In 48 career at-bats against Paul Maholm he has 17 hits, good for a .354 average an a 1.034 OPS. He’s also taken the Cubs hurler deep four times leading to nine RBI. Plus and play with this gu – as long as he is in the lineup.

Martin Prado: Off to a bit of a slow start hitting .250, Prado is a .292 career hitter. He’s also raked against the D’backs in his career going 22-for-60 leading to a .367 average and 13 RBI in 17 games played. He’s also picked up a hit in seven of his last nine games while he’s driven in four runs while scoring four times in his last two contests. Joe Saunders isn’t exactly a dominating opponent either.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mike Leake: When a guy is 4-1 with a 2.66 ERA and 1.11 WHIP against a team (the Cubs), you had better take notice. Don’t expect a lot of strikeouts, he has just 32 in 50.2 innings against the Cubs, but he should still have an effective outing.

Brandon McCarthy: Last season he went 6-3 with a 2.65 ERA and 1.11 WHIP at home. This season he’s made three “home” starts and in that time he’s got a 2.50 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. The matchup with the Indians isn’t a great one on paper given that the Indians offense has been humming along in the early going, but McCarthy is still a solid option given his success in Oakland and his 6-3 record and 1.30 WHIP against the Indians over 16 games, if he can avoid letting Travis Hafner beat him that is.

Mike Pelfrey: The Mets hurler gets to face the less than imposing offense of the Giants. That’s good news for the 6’7” righty who has a 2.18 ERA and 0.99 WHIP against the Giants in six starts. He’ll also be pitching at Citi Field, a place where he has enjoyed a lot of success (19-13, 3.46 ERA, 1.34 WHIP).

CONTESTS

We have partnered with DailyJoust.com to give our users an opportunity to compete in Daily Fantasy games this baseball season and they have a $250 MLB Baseball Freeroll Tournament Friday April 20th starting at 7pm EST.  Here are the details:

Create your team with a 1 million dollar salary cap:
C, 1B/DH, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, SP.

It’s FREE to enter and there are $250 in prizes up for grabs

Follow these 2 steps to play.

1. To sign up for this, or any game with DailyJoust, simply click on the link just provided.

2. Watch the live scoring on DailyJoust to see how your team stacks up against the competition.

Good luck!

By Ray Flowers

A Look Back at 2011 – Batting

Yesterday I tackled the 2011 performance of pitchers, an if you know me you know that I’m all about symmetry. Today, I’ll break down some of the numbers that stood out for me when I looked at the hitters for 2011. Special thanks to the 2012 Bill James Handbook where a fair amount of the information you are about to read about comes from (I would highly recommend the book for those of you looking for a nice reference tool).

For my review of some of the fascinating pitching numbers see A Look Back at 2011 – Pitching.

Asdrubal Cabrera hit .636 with 13 RBI last year in 11 at-bats with the bases loaded.

Miguel Cabrera led baseball with a 1.047 OPS against right handed pitching. That mark was .001 better than two other first basemen – Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder.

If you were an NL pitcher in 2011 and you were looking to get strike one under your belt then you wanted to see Jamey Carroll come to the dish. Carroll swung at only 6.9 percent of first pitches. The only other NL batter in single digits was Martin Prado (9.8). As for those that did let her rip on the first pitch three names topped 40 percent: Yadier Molina (40.7), Aramis Ramirez (40.6) and Freddie Freeman (40.1).

If you were a curveball specialist you didn’t want to see the Diamondbacks on your schedule as Chris Young and Justin Upton were 1-2 in the NL in OPS against the curveball (1.149 and 1.148). If you relied on the slider, you certainly didn’t want to see the Reds or the Phillies in the other dugout as the Phillies had three guys in the top-5 in the NL in OPS (Shane Victorino 1.111, John Mayberry 1.060 and Jimmy Rollins 1.060) while the Reds had three in the top nine (Ryan Hanigan 1.036, Jay Bruce 1.036 and Chris Heisey 1.014).

Jacoby Ellsbury led the American League, and baseball, with 364 total bases. Teammate Adrian Gonzalez was second in the AL with 345 while Matt Kemp led the NL at 353.

Prince Fielder hit the longest home run in the NL at 486 feet. That’s hardly a surprise. However, the only other NL player with a homer over 480 feet was Juan Francisco of the Reds who hit on 482 feet on September 12th. No AL batter put one into the seats at a distance of at least 480 feet.

Derek Jeter failed to hit .300 as he finished at .297 for the Yankees. Blame his work against righties (.277) as he killed lefties to the tune of a .347 mark. For his career he’s hit .336 against lefties and .305 against the righties.

Matt Kemp loved seeing a lefty on the hill in 2011. His OPS of 1.142 was the best in the National League against southpaws. That mark was just behind the 1.156 OPS  of Jose Bautista against port siders, the AL leading total.

Victor Martinez led baseball with a .394 batting average with runners in scoring position. He also posted a .990 OPS in those 155 at-bats. He didn’t slump much either when the situation was a runner in scoring position with two outs. In that scenario he hit .375 with a .930 OPS (72 at-bats).

Dustin Pedroia saw 3,077 pitches, the most in baseball. Only one other batter was over 2,900 and that was Curtis Granderson at 3,069.

There was only one leadoff hitter in baseball, who had a minimum of 150 plate appearances in that spot, who posted an on base percentage of .400. It was Brandon Phillips of the Reds at .417. Surprisingly the AL leader wasn’t Jacoby Ellsbury who was second at .381. The fella in the Junior Circuit with the best mark was the Royals… Alex Gordon at .383.

There wasn’t a single batter in the NL who was under the age of 26 that posted an OPS of .900. The leader was Justin Upton at .898 followed closely by Mike Stanton (.893) and Carlos Gonzalez (.889).

By Ray Flowers

2011 Positional Review – Second Base

You remember back to March when I gave away all my position player rankings for free, right? For those of you who want to revisit my greatest hits, here’s where you would go to get all my rankings for hitters – 2011: BBGuys Hitter Capsules.

I’m nothing if not accountable, so I’ll review my top-10 predictions at each position as well as point out my biggest “hit” outside of the top-10 and my biggest “bust.”

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

2011 SECOND BASE Top-10

1 Robinson Cano
2 Dustin Pedroia
3 Brandon Phillips
4 Dan Uggla
5 Chase Utley
6 Ian Kinsler
7 Rickie Weeks
8 Howie Kendrick
9 Aaron Hill
10 Martin Prado

Cano hit .302, third at the position, had 28 homers, third at the position, knocked in 118 runs, first at the position, and scored 104 runs, second at the position. Yeah, he lived up to the preseason hype.

Pedroia was phenomenal for the Red Sox hitting .307 with 21 homers, 91 RBI, 102 runs and 26 stolen bases. That effort was just the sixth, ever, for a second baseman (minimum .300-20-90-100-25).

Phillips hit .300 for the first time, scored 94 runs, blasted 18 homers and knocked in 82 runs. It was a great season even if he stole just 14 bases, his lowest total since joining the Reds in 2006.

Uggla was horrible, then electric in his first season with the Braves. Add it all up and he hit a career worst .233. However, he also scored 88 runs, hit a career best 36 homers, and knocked in 82 runs. That gave him 6-straight seasons of at least 27 homers, 82 RBI and 84 runs scored. Only one other second baseman in history has ever had six such seasons (Jeff Kent), and Uggla has done it 6-years in a row – every year he has been in the league (no other second sacker has done it more than 2-straight years).

Utley had a decent season for a late round draft pick asked to full the middle infield spot (.259-11-44-54-14), but that knee injury just killed his season, and he’s now had back-to-back seasons that are nowhere near his established level of excellence (in 2010 he went .275-16-65-75-13).

Kinsler rebounded from a down 2010 to post his second 30/30 effort in three years. He hit only .255, but he powered a career-high 32 homers and scored 121 runs, another career best.

Weeks, against my better judgment really, came in seventh at the position at the start of the year. As I pointed out numerous times, Weeks had three season of less than 100 games, and three over 100 games coming into the year. He kind of split the difference appearing in 118 games, but the lack of times on the field limited his contributions to being a really good season, but not a great one (.269-20-49-77-9).

Kendrick saved me from a lot of flack. I ranked him pretty high this spring, and everyone called me out for it. In the end, he produced one of the better 5×5 lines at the position going .285-18-63-86-14. Do you know how many second base eligible players hit .285 with 18 homers, 63 RBI, 86 runs and 14 steals? The answer is three – Pedroia, Phillips and Kendrick.

Hill was a massive disappointment yet again, and I’m really at a loss as to why. He hit .246 with eight homers, 61 RBI, and 61 runs scored. Remember, this is a guy who averaged 31 homers a season in 2009-10. He somewhat saved his season by swiping 21 bases, nearly halfway to his career mark of 44 thefts.

Prado was a disaster in 2011. He hit 13 homers with 57 RBI which was about as expected, but he scored only 66 runs and even worse, after hitting .307 in back-to-back seasons, batted just .260. You can, at least in part, blame his BABIP which was .266, well below his career rate of .315 (his line drive rate was also a career worst at 14.6 percent, this after posting at least a 19.8 percent mark from 2008-2010).

Hit: Howie Kendrick #8
Bust: Hill #9

By Ray Flowers

One Day Left

With one day left in the season, and so much left to be decided with the Rays/Sox and Braves/Cards tied for the Wild Card, you gotta love it. I hope the Rays and Cards make it. Just my personal preference.

Adam Dunn is having one of the worst seasons in the history of baseball. He was threatening to become just the second player ever, Rob Deer is the lucky winner, to have a batting average that is less than the players strikeout total. Oh Dunn has that trick pulled off with 177 punchouts and a .159 average, but it won’t officially be recognized because he is a handful of plate appearances below the number needed (502) to qualify for the batting title. In addition to that dreadful bit of news, Dunn has also lost one of the most impressive homer streaks in league history. From 2004-10, Dunn hit at least 38 homers in every season. This year he’s scored 36 runs. I don’t know what to say other than this is, like I wrote at the top, one of the worst performances in the history of baseball.

Matt Garza is one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. He only went 10-10 in his first year in the NL, but he did strike out a career best 197 batters in 198 innings. Garza has made at least 30 starts and thrown at least 184.2 innings each of the past four years. Even more than that, look at his BAA marks – .245, .233, .248 and .245. How about his WHIP you say? I thought you would never ask – 1.24, 1.26, 1.25 and 1.26. I’m not making that up. Check it out.

Micah Owing is 8-0 as a reliever for the D’backs (he did make four starts). Bartolo Colon made 26 starts for the Yankees and recorded only eight wins.

Brandon Phillips is one hell of a ballplayer. He’ll end the 2011 season, he has a strained left quad, hitting .300 with 18 homers, 82 RBI, 94 runs scored and 14 steals. Since he joined the Reds in 2006 he’s tied for 4th at the position with 124 homers, he is 4th with 486 RBI, he’s 5th with 524 runs scored and 3rd with 135 steals. Like I said, he’s a hell of a ballplayer.

Jimmy Rollins would like to sign a 5-year contract this offseason to take him through his 38 year old season. I don’t know if anyone will give him that long a deal, but he proved he still has a lot left to give after an injury plagued 2010 season (Rollins has 16 homers, 63 RBI, 87 runs and 30 steals in 141 games for the Phillies). He’s also hit .271, a three year high. Moreover, for the 7th straight time in which he’s appeared in 135 games he stole 30 bags with 10 homers, 50 RBI and 75 runs. Those aren’t fantastic numbers, but for a shortstop they are strong.

Alfonso Soriano was nowhere near as bad as Adam Dunn, but it’s not like he hasn’t had some issues of his own in 2011. Soriano has hit 26 homers with 88 RBI, solid totals for the Cubs’ outfielder. Here is where it gets interesting. Soriano is hitting a terrible .244, and given that he has walked a mere 27 times, his OBP this season is a sickly .289. As a result of not getting on base very often, and the fact that 81 percent of his at-bats have come out of the 6th and 7th spots in the lineup, Soriano has scored only 50 runs. I’ll save you a trip to the calculator. That means Soriano has scored 52 percent of his runs on his own home runs.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 7, 2011

(1)  Albert Pujols on cusp of history – yet again.

(2) Stephen Strasburg phenomenal in his first start with Nats.

(3) V-Mart mighty impressive, minus the homers.

(4) Ian Kinsler trying to do something only one other 2B has ever done.

(5) Alex Rios – worth a play in the month of September?

By Ray Flowers

Ray’s Random Musings

photo © 2011 Matthew Straubmuller | more info (via: Wylio)

Daniel Bard has allowed leadoff hitters to bat .300 against him (30 ABs). The rest of the time batters are hitting .133 (98 ABs).

Erik Bedard pitched 81 innings in 2008. He pitched 83 innings in 2009. He didn’t throw a single pitch in 2010. He’s already up to 90 innings this season. Oh, he’s looked great with a 3.00 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 8.50 K/9 mark, but you’re playing with a lighted charcoal briquette with bare hands, and you’re gonna get burned. I’d recommend pushing hard to deal him. Maybe he holds on all year and has a fantastic season, but there’s no way I’d be counting on that, not with his track record of ill health. Oh by the way, he was placed on the DL about two hours ago with a bad knee. At least it’s not his arm. The Mariners expect him to be back in two weeks.

Carlos Beltran is on pace for a season of .280-22-105-80, pretty amazing actually given his physical  woes. Unfortunately he’s also on pace for a mere six steals. Still, after he hit only 17 homers with 75 RBI and 71 runs the last two years there shouldn’t be a single complaint with this guy.

The last 28 days Brennan Boesch is hitting .380 with six homers, 13 RBI and 21 runs scored. That recent surge puts him on a pace that would lead to a season of .300-20-80-100. Is he that type of hitter? The HR and RBI marks are totally acceptable rates, but the runs and average not so much. Boesch doesn’t strike out a ton, but he also doesn’t walk much as evidenced by his 0.49 BB/K rate that is league average. He also owns a slightly below league average line drive rate of 18.5 percent. Neither of those measure says .300 average. His BABIP is a little high at .329, and though it is a sustainable mark, unless he keeps it up there he’s going to have a hard time hitting .280 let alone .300. Also, not many guys score 100 runs when they have an OBP under .360 (his current mark is .357). Only five guys pulled off that trick last year: Austin Jackson, Derek Jeter, Martin Prado, Brandon Phillips and Carl Crawford.

Cliff Lee is working on a scoreless streak of  32 innings, and he’s the first lefty since 1994 to have three straight shutouts (Randy Johnson). But his success goes deeper than that.

* For the month of June, Lee won all five of his starts.

* For the month of June his ERA was 0.21. No NL pitcher has had a monthly ERA that low since Orel Hershiser in 1998 (0.00 in September). Lee’s 0.21 ERA for the month was also the sixth best mark, minimum 40 innings pitched, in the NL since 1912. That’s kind of a long time.

Wily Mo Pena has three homers in 25 at-bats with the D’backs. He blasted 21 homers in 237 at-bats in the minors. That effort puts him on pace to bash 48 homers in 524 at-bats this season. I’m just saying.

By Ray Flowers