Around the Horn: March 4, 2010

(1) Jose Reyes visits doctor, but still healthy. Turns out it had nothing to do with his hamstring.

(2) Hank Blalock deciding between Rays and Marlins. Neither is offering full-time role.

(3) David Aardsma tweaks groin. Not a major issue, but brings up how useful Brandon League might end up being.

(4) Ike Davis Mets’ first basemen of future. Can Daniel Murphy hold him off in the present?

(5) Max Scherzer struggles for Tigers in first outing.

(6) Brandon Webb frustrated with speed of comeback from shoulder surgery. No setbacks reported but he feels like he has “stagnated” in the process.

Here are some links to a few of my most recent pieces at Fanball.com which are free to view.

Crawford vs. Ellsbury.

Average Bases Allowed – Starters.

Average Bases Allowed – Relievers.

By Ray Flowers

Around the World: ADP

The calendar is about to flip to March, and that will signal that the fantasy baseball season is in full effect. Mock drafts will heat up to the point where you’ll start dreaming about passing up on Andrew McCutchen in the 8th round and you’ll wonder why you didn’t pull the trigger on that second closer at the end of the 15th round.

To help you as you prepare for fantasy baseball’s version of March Madness, I’ll look at Average Draft Position data from time to time. If you need a refresher course in what ADP is and why it matters, make sure you read ADP Talk – What is it?

A caveat. Make sure that whichever ADP information you are looking at is geared toward your specific league. It does you no good to look at National Fantasy Baseball Championship data if you are in a league that has only 10 teams (the NFBC has 15 team leagues. You can win over $100,000 playing in it by the way, so you might wan to check it out). To read some pertinent NFBC ADP data make sure you give a look at Jason Collette’s Talking ADP piece.

As for what follows here, I will be reviewing ADP data from 13 leagues. Each league contains 15 teams with 14 hitters and nine pitchers starting (just like the NFBC starting lineup) with standard 5×5 scoring categories. Here are some things that I noticed in the data (thanks to Geoffrey Stein for sending it along).

(1) Here is the top-10.
Albert Pujols, Hanley Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez, Chase Utley, Ryan Braun
Matt Kemp, Mark Teixeira, Joe Mauer, Prince Fielder and Evan Longoria.

To me, Mauer at #8 is awful. Too much growth last year for him to sustain it. Plus, catcher is such a brutal position physically.

I also question the wisdom of Teixeira at #7. I’d much rather have Miguel Cabrera at #13.
Last three years: Teixeira (.302-34-116-97-1) and Cabrera (.312-35-116-91-3).

(2) You’re going to need to get your corner infielders quickly. Of the top 33 selections, eight were first basemen and six were third sackers meaning fully 42 percent of the top-33 picks played first or third.

(3) Pitching isn’t a priority early. Tim Lincecum (#17) is the only hurler in the top-30. Here are the others in the top-50: Roy Halladay (31), CC Sabathia (34), Felix Hernandez (38), Zack Greinke (41), Dan Haren (48) and Justin Verlander (49).

(4) Catchers aren’t going early after the big-3. Mauer (#8), Victor Martinez (24) and Brian McCann (39) are the only catchers in the top-75. Next comes Matt Wieters at 78, and after that you have to go all the way down to #126 to find the next backstop – Miguel Montero.

(5) How are people evaluating players that were hurt last year? Here’s a look.

22nd overall – Jose Reyes
He’s currently the fourth SS off the board after Hanley Ramirez (2), Troy Tulowitzki (14) and Jimmy Rollins (20). I think all three should be taken before Reyes because of the reliability factor, but Tulowitzki as a first round pick? I have a real problem with that.

23rd – Grady Sizemore
Mr. 20/20 (each year from 2005-08), clearly has the faithful convinced that last year was just one of those seasons. If healthy, there is little reason to doubt that consensus, but it’s still a bit risky to spend a second round pick on Sizemore at this point.

125th – Brandon Webb
All reports are really positive that Webb looks and feels strong so far. Given his extreme consistency before last years shoulder issues someone is certainly going to be tempted to draft Webb at this point of a draft, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up sneaking into the top-100 if he has no setbacks in spring. Personally, I’ll pass. Scott Baker (137) or James Shields (144) certainly seem like much safer bets to me.

So there you go. As I said, this won’t be the last time I address this issue of ADP.

And finally, with Fanball.com going completely free with our baseball coverage for the next three weeks, here are a few links to some of my recent work. Enjoy.

Breaking Down: Chad Qualls

Breaking Down: Clayton Kershaw

Sabermetric Primer: SWIP

Sabermetric Primer: Game Score

Sabermetric Primer: Quality Start Percentage

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: Feb.5, 2010

(1) Buster Posey to play the infield in spring?

(2) Madison Bumgarner Giants 5^th starter?

(3) Orlando Hudson to Twins results in Adam Kennedy to Nationals.

(4) Yorvit Torrealba ends up with Padres.

(5) Brandon Webb to throw off mound.

(6) Kevin Gregg is the newest member of the Blue Jays bullpen.

By Ray Flowers

Turn Back the Clock: Starting Pitchers

The following list is taken from the 2009 Fanball Annual Guide that was on newsstands prior to the start of the 2009 season. This list represents my top-10 starting pitchers heading into the ’09 campaign. Let this list be reason number 1,976 as to why it makes little sense to draft a starting pitcher early as they are just so volatile. What do I mean? Take a look at the list. The top guy made his fewest starts since 2002. The #5 guy was a huge disappointment. #6? He made all of one start, and #7 pitched his fewest innings since his rookie year in 2002. And it’s not like I chose crazy hurlers for my list. Of the nine Fanball employees who ranked the top-10′s at each position, here is the total of how many times each of those injured pitchers were mentioned.

Johan Santana – nine
Brandon Webb – nine
Jake Peavy – eight

Just goes to show you that taking hitters early in drafts is likely the safer play. Now on to a review of my list.

To read previous positional reviews click on the following link:

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

THIRD BASE

SHORTSTOP

OUTFIELDERS

1. Johan Santana

2. Tim Lincecum

3. CC Sabathia

4. Roy Halladay

5. Cole Hamels

6. Brandon Webb

7. Jake Peavy

8. Dan Haren

9. James Shields

10. Felix Hernandez

Santana won 13 games with a 3.13 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP though he did toss only 166.2 innings his lowest total since becoming a full-time starter in 2003. Reports are that his arm should be 100 percent by opening day 2010.

Lincecum actually improved in his second full season winning his second straight Cy Young. He lowered his ERA by 0.14 down to 2.48, his WHIP by 0.12 (down to 1.05), and held batters to an anemic .206 BAA, .015 points below his ’08 mark. The best thing going – end of story.

Sabathia had a terrific first season in pinstripes giving the Yankees exactly what they paid for. He won 19 games, struck out 197, posted a 3.37 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP while eating up 230 innings. A free agent signing who delivered handsomely.

Halladay continues to be a throwback to years gone by. He tossed nine complete games, produced four shutouts, twirled 239 innings and along the way won 17 games for a poor team. He also posted a sub 2.80 ERA for a second straight year, an unheard of occurrence in the AL in this age of offense.

Hamels was terrible if you look only at the results (10-11, 4.32 ERA, 1.29 WHIP). However, a deeper look at the numbers says that he was extremely unlucky (a .325 BABIP can be blamed – it was .289 and .270 the previous two years), and therefore he should rebound in 2010.

Webb made that one start and his year was over with a wonky shoulder that required surgery. He is back in the desert on an option year deal with the D’backs in his attempt to reassert himself as a top flight option after 5-straight years over 200-innings.

Peavy finally was moved from San Diego to the White Sox, but his year was marred by an ankle injury and later some issues with his elbow that limited him to a mere 16 starts. He posted 110 Ks and a 1.12 WHIP in 101.2 innings but will likely find success harder to come by in a hitters’ yard in Chicago.

Haren was spectacular at the start of the year (9-5, 2.01 ERA, 0.81 WHIP prior to the All-Star game) before pulling his now annual second half fade (5-5, 4.62 ERA, 1.26 WHIP). Still, no one in the game was disappointed with his final numbers: 14-10, 3.14 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 223 Ks in 229.1 innings.

Shields had his worst season in three years seeing his sub four ERA rise to 4.14 while having his WHIP rise to 1.32 (it had been under 1.16 the previous two seasons). Still, he lasted more than 215 innings for a third straight year though he’ll need to reign in the free passes a bit to return to his previous levels.

Hernandez, in retrospect, should have been higher on my list, though I can’t give myself too much grief as I was the only one of the nine staffers who had him ranked in the top-10. All he did was go 19-5 with a 2.49 ERA, 217 Ks and a 1.14 WHIP. Not a bad season for a guy who doesn’t turn 24 until April 2010.

By Ray Flowers

The Webb Conundrum

Brandon Webb, when healthy, is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Period. Alas, his wonky shoulder limited him to a mere four innings this season leaving the D’backs with one whopper of a decision to make in regards to the future of their organization: should they pick up the $8.5 million option on his contract, do they try to renegotiate the deal at a lower rate, or do they simply let him walk away? Before I get to what their decision appears to be, let me give some background on the situation.

(1) From 2005-2008 Webb tossed at least 220 innings each season. Webb was the only pitcher in baseball who tossed 220-innings in each season from ’05-’08 and he was one of only four who reached the 200-inning level in 5-straight years from 2004-08 (and he threw 208 innings in 2004 following up a 180.2 inning rookie season).

(2) Webb improved his victory total each season from 2004: seven, 14, 16, 18 and 22. From 2005-08 he was one of only six hurlers who won at least 14 games each season, and his total of 70 victories in that time were the most in baseball (Roy Oswalt and Johan Santana were second with 66).

(3) Webb posted an ERA below 3.60 in each season from 2004-08, a feat only two other hurlers could match (Oswalt and Santana again).

(4) Webb racked up at least 164 strikeouts in each of his six big league seasons. Only one other hurler was able to produce at least 160 Ks each year from 2003-08, and it was accomplished by the best lefty in baseball; Johan Santana.

(5) To wrap up this little review, here are the rakings of Webb in a variety of categories for the 2005-08 seasons.

927 IP, the best mark in baseball
70 wins, the best mark in baseball
3.23 ERA, the sixth best mark in baseball
727 strikeouts, the eighth best mark in baseball
10.98 base runners per nine, the 9th best mark in baseball.

Clearly, Webb was one of the most consistently excellent hurlers in the game, though he wasn’t always valued as highly as he should have been in the fantasy game.

Flash forward to 2009. Here is what we know.

Webb was unable to agree to a long-term contract with the D’backs after it was learned that tests on his shoulder showed some irregularities (the club was unable to secure insurance for the deal because of the state of his shoulder). Webb then went out, appeared in one game, had multiple setbacks in his recovery, and eventually was forced to go under the knife. Reports are that the procedure went well, there was less damage than feared, and that his recovery is on track. Given all that what are the D’backs going to do with Webb (officially they have five days after the end of the World Series to determine if they will pick up the $8.5 million option on his current deal)?

Currently the D’backs have a couple of big ticket items in the rotation in Dan Haren ($7.5 million this season) and Dough Davis ($8.75 million this season) and with dead weight like Eric Byrnes ($11 million next season), they are likely getting a bit nervous about their payroll given that across the street Coyotes of the NHL are in dire financial straights (Davis will be a free agent at the end of the year, so they will save a little there if they let him go). With those concerns, paying over $8 million to a guy coming off a season of four innings doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense – these aren’t the Yankees – so it may not happen. In fact, Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote that he believed that the club will try to sign Webb to 1-year, incentive laden deal instead of simply giving him $8.5 million for 2010.

Time will tell if that ends up being the right call or not, but if it was my money I’d tell Webb to sign on the dotted line with an incentive laden deal, probably one with a second year added on for some security in case he returned to full health, and let er’ rip (this may actually be Arizona’s thinking). But hey, I just write about this stuff and don’t sign anyone’s checks, though judging from the way that some sports teams run their organizations maybe that shouldn’t be the case. I will work for food and a roof over my head too, so if any organization out there needs a hand, just let me know.

By Ray Flowers

For Your Consideration

Monday. The euphoria of the trade deadline bonanza has passed, and now we are back to the “real world” of day-to-day baseball. Today I thought I would touch on a few of the more interesting storylines currently floating around the baseball universe including the odd tale of a seemingly delusion third baseman in Baltimore.

Melvin Mora said this over the weekend if you missed it. “I think I deserve more respect than what I’m getting here,” Mora said. “Don’t give me excuses that I can’t beat Smoltz or I can’t beat Beckett or I can’t beat Lester. I’ve been here nine years. All these guys in the East know me. I’ve made the All-Star team. I deserve respect.” We agree with you Mr. Mora, and if someone is spitting in your face or disparaging your family, then by all means speak up. However, what are we talking about here? Mr. Mora, you are hitting .256 with three home runs and 27 RBI in 285 ABs. How does that compare to the average major league third baseman? Check it:

.269-7-29.

Yes Mr. Mora, you haven’t even been a league average third basemen, so if you feel disrespected, well, how about you start hitting like a major league regular or just shut your pie hole.

Who are they trying to kid? Roy Oswalt had his start pushed back because of a back issue. Now his Saturday start is likely also to be missed as he continues to suffer some pain in the area. Just put him on the DL and let him take the two weeks guys, seems like that’s the way this is going to go so instead of frustrating everyone. Just pull the trigger on the DL stint.

There has been some talk of Albert Pujols and a run at the Triple Crown. Pujols has a two home run lead over Mark Reynolds for the home run lead (34 to 32) in the National League and he is one RBI behind Prince Fielder for the NL RBI lead with 92. However, after hitting just .289 in 97 July at-bats Pujols is down to .314, the eighth best mark in the NL. Given that he has never hit below .314 in a season, plus the addition of Matt Holliday to help him out in the middle of the Cards lineup, Pujols would appear to have a great shot to push that average much closer to .333 by the end of the year (his career average). As mentioned he also is right there in homers and RBI, but in this day and age of offense and specialization, it’s a tall order to expect any man to be able to lead the league in average, home runs and RBI, but if any man can, it’s got to be Pujols. Still, the last man to win the mythical award in the NL was another Cardinal, Joe Medwick, who in 1937, that’s right before the Second World War, hit .374 with 31 home runs and 154 RBI. The last player in the AL? How about Carl Yastrzemski in 1967 when Yaz produced a line of .326-44-121 for the Red Sox.

Brandon Webb is done for 2009 and may not be ready for 2010 after undergoing a “debridement” procedure on his shoulder. What the hell is a debridement? It’s a medical procedure that removes non-healthy tissue and any foreign materials. What that basically means is that they went in and cleaned up his shoulder without needing to do anything invasive. It’s not clear if his labrum or rotator cuff was the central focus of the surgery, but what is clear is that I find it almost impossible to believe that the club will pick up his $8.5 million option for next season. More than likely, the D’backs will give Webb his $1.5 million buyout and see if they can sign him to an incentive laden deal. Given the reluctance of the team to do just that prior to the start of the season because of concerns with his health, it’s certainly not at all out of the realm of possibility that Webb has tossed his last game for the club.

By Ray Flowers

Will it Ever End?

The Pirates are at it again, and by “it” I mean the systematic dismantling of their major league roster as they plan for the mythical “future” when at some point they will be a good club once again. I don’t know when that will happen, hell I don’t know if will ever happen, but they are certainly giving it the old college try. Before I get to that, and is it just me or have the Pirates sucked up and abnormally huge portion of media attention of late, I want to let you all know that I’m not just going to bash the Pirates today, I’ll also bash other figures in the game of baseball as well. Maybe one of your “guys” will be on the list and you can leave a comment for me either agreeing or disagreeing with me on my take on each guy.

Today the Pirates dealt John Grabow and Tom Gorzelanny to the Cubs for Kevin Hart, Jose Ascanio and Josh Harrison. The people in Pittsburgh are going to need to have their players to wear neon signs with their names as they likely have no idea who and the heck the majority of these guys are at this point. I don’t have the list in front of me, and frankly I’m past the point of really caring, but off the top of my head the Pirates have given up the following players recently.

1B: Adam LaRoche
2B: Freddy Sanchez
SS: Jack Wilson
OF:Jason Bay, Nate McLouth, Xavier Nady, Nyjer Morgan
P: Ian Snell, Grabow, Gorzelanny

I’m sure there are guys I’m leaving out, but honestly, can the Pirates really say they are a better organization without those men? They might be a stronger organization, but their major league club is much, much worse. If “they” try to claim otherwise I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see their noses grow like Pinocchio’s.

Oh, and before I leave the Pirates just thought I would point out that Nyjer Morgan is hitting .482 since the All-Star break. I’m just saying.

David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez reportedly tested positive for steroids back in 2003. What a shock. Still, how is this information becoming public? Why did the court bother to make the records secret if people were going to openly flaunt that secrecy ruling and just leak out the info? Speaking of that list, why don’t the powers that be just dump out the whole list rather than one or two names leak out every month? Bottom line for me is that there is no way to verify what happened in 2003 and if players tested “positive” for something that was legal in baseball at the time, why is everyone flipping out? If you look hard enough you can probably find an NFL player who tests positive for steroids every week, yet no one seems to care in that sport do they?

Delusional Player of the Week – Russ Ortiz who still doesn’t get why the Astros weren’t kissing his feet for his work on the hill for them this season was released immediately after his outing on Thursday in which he allowed nine runs while recording just seven outs. With a 5.57 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Russ doesn’t think he deserves a raise.

Brandon Webb had a mysterious “setback” in his attempt to return from a shoulder issue, and at this point he is being sent for more tests. “He’s not probably making the progress we were hoping for, so I think we have to make an assessment about what to do next,” GM Josh Byrnes said. So let me see if I have this straight. Webb’s shoulder has been a concern since last off-season when the club couldn’t get insurance on a potential long-term deal with Webb when the tests raised the issues in his shoulder. No matter, Webb continued to pitch and made all of one start before heading to the DL. It now appears nearly certain that he will require surgery, and if he does it is far from certain that he will be ready to go at the start of 2010. So here is the question – (a) why didn’t Webb undergo surgery last off-season if this was a concern or (b) why didn’t he do something differently, training wise, in order to avoid this outcome (perhaps he did but there was no stopping it)? Furthermore, why hasn’t he just undergone the procedure by this point since it’s clear he is done for the year? I would avoid surgery at all costs too, but that decision may end up costing Webb all of 2009 and some of 2010.

Joel Zumaya will head under the knife at some point in August to fix his shoulder, and his 2009 campaign is over after just 31 innings. Zumaya can still rush it up there with anyone in the game, his average heater this year was an astounding 99.3 mph, but dude simply cannot stay healthy. Is all of this the result of a bad body, poor luck or too much Guitar Hero? Beats me.

By Ray Flowers