Player Profile: Dan Uggla

Dan Uggla hit an unacceptable .220 last season for the Braves. Unfortunately for him, that seems to be the only number anyone ever looks at. Consider the following data points.

Were you aware that Uggla’s 19 homers were the 5th best in baseball for second baseman? That’s if we slot Ben Zobrist as a second baseman.

Were you aware that Uggla’s 78 RBIs were third at the second base position?

Were you aware that Uggla’s 86 runs scored were sixth at the second base position? He’d be fifth if we removed Zobrist.

Did you know that he was one of three second basemen with 19 homers, 75 RBIs and 85 runs scored? The others were Robinson Cano and Aaron Hill.

Were you aware that his .348 OBP was better than the marks of Dustin Pedroia (.347), Neil Walker (.342), Jason Kipnis (.335), Rickie Weeks (.328) and Brandon Phillips (.321)? Uggla also tied with Joey Votto for the NL lead with 94 walks.

Were you aware that Uggla is the only second baseman in the history of baseball, ever folks, to hit 19 homers with 78 RBIs and 84 runs scored in 7-straight seasons? Moreover, he’s only played seven seasons, and if he repeats those three numbers once again in 2013 he’ll tie the all-time career mark for second baseman with eight such seasons (Jeff Kent).

So after all of that are you really going to sit there and tell me that the reason you lost last season was because of Uggla? Are you really going to tell me he was a huge disappointment? Are you really? I’m not saying that Uggla wasn’t disappointing last season, but I’m trying to keep it “real” as the kids say. His overall season last year was still good, at least in the counting categories (he’s never been an SB threat and in three of the past four years he hasn’t hit .245). That said, his batting average, homer total and RBI marks were all career lows, so I understand the frustration, but let’s not take that to the degree that we blame him for a fantasy squads failures.

The good news is that Uggla walked 94 times, a career best number. He also posted a 0.56 BB/K ratio which was a three year best and above his 0.48 career mark. Yes he was struggling to produce hits, but at least he didn’t totally lose control of the strike zone. That gives me some hope that his batting average could rebound. That’s especially true when I see Uggla with a 20.1 percent line drive rate – a career best. Last year was actually the first time that his line drive mark was ever over 17.8 percent. Despite a career best line drive rate his BABIP of .283 was below his career .292 mark. That doesn’t make a lot of sense now does it? It also doesn’t make much sense that his homer total fell given that his 46.4 percent fly ball ratio was a three year high. The reason that mark fell was that, after 4-straight years of at least 16.0 percent in the HR/F column, the mark fell to a career worst 11.4 percent. Nothing in his track record suggests that 11.4 percent is his new level, so the odds would favor a slight uptick in homers in 2013 for Uggla.

Maybe this is a case of me favoring the old guy, but I don’t see as much downside with Uggla as others. The Braves are going to play him every day, an a worst case scenario in my mind is a repeat of last season. Let me ask you this. If Uggla were to go .245-25-85-85 in 2013 would you take that? I ask because his career average is even better than that at .253-30-89-96. He’s no spring chicken, he’ll be 33 in March, but I’m still seeing enough in this guys efforts, as frustrating as it was to watch last season, that leads me to think that he has a a good chance to once again be one of the better run producing second baseman in baseball.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Paul Maholm

Paul Maholm‘s name likely elicits, let’s see, a yawn? Before you lock that thought into your head as to what your reaction should be when the Braves’ lefties name as mentioned remember this:

Maholm had a better ERA than Homer Bailey, Chris Capuano, Mark Buehrle, Wandy Rodriguez, Jeff Samardzija, Josh Johnson, Adam Wainwright and Ian Kennedy in 2012.

Maholm had a better WHIP than Ryan Vogelsong, A.J. Burnett, Adam Wainwright, Josh Johnson, Ian Kennedy, Yovani Gallardo, Lance Lynn, Tommy Hanson and Tim Lincecum in 2012.

Maholm had more wins than Jordan Zimmerman, Chris Capuano, Roy Halladay, Edinson Volquez, Tim Lincecum, Edwin Jackson, Chad Billingsley and Jeff Samardzija.

Do I have your attention yet?

Paul Maholm isn’t exciting, I will give you that. Even with all of the above data the fact of the matter is that Maholm won 13 games, had a 3.67 ERA an a 1.22 WHIP. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but it’s not like they will lead to a fantasy championship. However, it should be noted that numbers like those, from a reserve round selection or a waiver-wire pick up, are special numbers. Are you better off spending $23 on Johnny Cueto or $3 on Paul Maholm on draft day? Obviously Cueto is a better pitcher and the one you need more to win a championship, but hopefully you see the point – Maholm is the better value add based on his draft day cost. If you can augment an expensive Cueto with a cheap as all get out Maholm, then you’ve got something. In terms of return on investment, Maholm was one of the best bargains in baseball in 2012. Can he be so again in 2013?

On the bump Maholm has been very consistent the past two seasons. In 2012 he had a 3.67 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in 189 innings. In 2011 he had a 3.66 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 162.1 innings. However, like many of the other hurlers I’ve been reviewing, it’s best to realize what Maholm is – he’s a rotation filler who won’t hurt you. Why do I say that? For some reason he can’t seem to consistently win games. Maholm owns a 66-84 career record, and even the past two years when he has pitched so well he’s gone 19-25. Wins-loses are of course a bad way to judge pitchers performances, I’m the first to admit that, but in the fantasy game they are one of the four categories that matter to starting hurlers. I should also point out that in four of the past five seasons, despite at least 26 starts each year (more than 30 in four of them), that Paul failed to reach double-digits in wins. For some reason he’s just not able to consistently post wins.

The next issue with Maholm is that he lacks a strikeout pitch. For his career Maholm owns a poor 5.71 K/9 mark, and that fact alone removes him from receiving my stamp of approval. Still, it is somewhat heartening to see that he’s coming off a career best mark of 6.67, though it should be noted that the mark is 0.61 better than ever before (back in 2008). Maholm isn’t going to turn into a league average K arm, just the way it is. Maholm does keep the walks in check, at least he has that going for him, with a BB/9 mark of 2.80 or lower in five of the past six years.

One thing that Maholm does well, very well, is induce grounders. It’s why he can be so effective without dominating hitters. Maholm’s GB-rate has been at least 49.9 percent every season of his career, and his worst GB/FB ratio for a season is a still impressive 1.69. Consequently he’s not exactly a homer magnet as his HR/9 mark has been under one each of the past five years.

Maholm will never be elite. He’ll never be someone to build a staff around. He’s also a pitcher who could see his performance go down since he lacks elite skills, but not likely up. That’s why he’s not someone to reach for on draft day, ever. Still, if you’ve got five or six solid arms in the rotation in a mixed league, and it’s the 25th round, you could do worse than calling out Maholm’s name on draft day.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Tommy Hanson

The Braves dealt Tommy Hanson to the Angels in exchange for reliever Jordan Walden. Yes, the Walden that opened the year as the closer for the Angels last season. With the Angels adding Ryan Madson they felt they could deal the hard throwing right-hander (Walden didn’t have a great season last year, but don’t forget that he saved 32 games in 2011 and that he owns a 10.83 K/9 mark over 123 big league games). The Braves now possess, arguably, the top-foursome of any pen in baseball: Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, Eric O’Flaherty and Walden. With the way the game is played these days, have an elite bullpen seems to be as important as having an elite starting rotation. But this piece is about the tall righty who at one point was looked at as a potential top-20 starting pitcher in the fantasy game. What should we make of the flailing Tommy Hanson?

As a rookie Hanson went 11-4 with a 2.89 ERA. In his second season he passed 200 innings while posting a 3.33 ERA. In his first three seasons his WHIP was 1.18, 1.17 and 1.17. So happy times ahead, right? Well, not so much. What that data leaves out is that Hanson tossed only 130 innings in 2011 as healthy woes started to mount. Last season his ERA skyrocketed to 4.48, his WHIP went into the stratosphere at 1.45, and he posted a four year low in BB/9 (3.66) and K/BB (2.27). What went wrong with Hanson? His shoulder wasn’t 100 percent. The result was a loss of three mph off his fastball from 2010 to 2012 (92.7 to 89.7 mph). The loss of velocity caused him to nibble more driving his pitch counts up. As a result he made 31 starts but was only able to last 174.2 innings. To compare, in 2010 he made three more starts but hurled 28 more innings.

If you can’t tell, let me just spell it out. Hanson, previously one of my favorite young hurlers in the game, makes me nervous. When a guy who is this young (26 years old) has these kind of issues, the red flag goes up. I’ve written previously about Hanson and his somewhat odd mechanics (I wrote about that issue back in February of 2012 in The Old, The Young and The Pretty). I always felt that a potential land mine in his development was that wonky mechanical issues he has where he seems to be fighting his body a bit as he comes over the top in a rather disjointed movement. Was the mechanical issue a reason for his struggles with health in 2012? That certainly seems possible. Whatever the issue, unless he is able to reclaim those lost three mph his outlook isn’t getting any better any time soon.

Numbers wise, here are some of the concerns.

Last season his ERA was 4.48. His first three seasons that mark was 3.28.
Last season his WHIP was 1.45. His first three seasons that mark was 1.17.
Last season his K/BB ratio was 2.27. His first three seasons that mark was 2.89.

You could argue that even with those struggles that he still posted a 1.01 GB/FB (career 0.99), a 74.1 left on base percentage (career 74.9) and that his ’12 numbers in line drive rate (20.7) and HR/F (13.5) were virtual matches for his ’11 numbers (20.5 and 12.5). I would counter with this. Since July 15th of 2011 Hanson has made 36 starts that have led to the following numbers: 14-13, 4.96 ERA, 1.50 WHIP, 2.37 K/BB ratio over 201.1 innings. Since the middle of the 2011 season Hanson hasn’t even been a league average hurler.

A young pitcher struggling with health, coming off his worst season, moving to an unfavorable league and one who is likely to see a massive increase in salary as he heads to arbitration makes Hanson a certain risk to take on for the Angels. There should also be plenty of concern the the fantasy game with Hanson. All of the negative points I made in this piece are valid concerns. Given the overall down turn in his work last season, and the fact that he’s averaged just 152 innings pitched the last two years, you had better think long and hard about making him anything other than your 4th starting pitcher in mixed leagues, and that might even be a bit optimistic. I’m off the Hanson train for now. He’ll have to prove to me that he can be successful before I elevate him back onto my target list.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: B.J. Upton

B.J. Upton signed a 5-year, $75.25 million deal to join the Braves. The largest deal in Braves’ franchise history seems like a nice midway point to me. The club only gave Upton five years so in the last season of the deal he’ll be 33 years old, a point where he should still be able to justify his salary (many times it’s not the per year money that is the biggest concern with contracts, it’s the voluminous years attached to the cash that often pay guys premium salaries when they are 35+ years old). Despite my thoughts on the deal, and I’ll obviously give support for the position that I think it’s a fair deal, I received a bunch of tweets at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter page from people saying the deal is terrible. Their main contention was two-fold. (1) The guy strikes out too much. (2) He doesn’t get on base. I’ll address both of those valid concerns right now.

(1) Upton strikes out too much. Period. In each of the past four years he’s whiffed at least 150 times, 160 or more the past three years. There are only four players who have whiffed 150 times each of the past four years: Carlos Pena, Adam Dunn, Mark Reynolds and Upton.

(2) Upton does struggle to get on base at times, largely due to the obnoxious strikeout totals. After back-to-back seasons of .380+ in the OBP column in 2007-08, Upton has failed to reach base at better than a .331 clip in any of the past four seasons. I’m not going to defend that. I will point out though that his .316 OBP the past four years is only .011 points below the league average.

While those two issues are certainly a concern in the real world, I don’t think they impact his fantasy value much (at least if you are in a standard 5×5 setup). What is an issue in the fantasy game is the effect the strikeouts have on his batting average. Though he owns a .255 career mark, he hasn’t hit that high since 2008. In the juiced player/muscle era, a .245 batting average was horrible. However, with the ascension of pitching the past few years, that number isn’t quite as bad as you might think. In fact, his .242 mark the past four years is just .018 points below the league average. I’m not saying that like it’s a good thing mind you, but it’s not as awful as the perception might be (you only need an everyday .285 hitter to get you back to the league average). Still, there is no disputing that if you roster Upton you will have to play to add some batters to offset his depressing batting average.

That’s the negative folks. Now the positive.

In the counting categories Upton is an absolute beast. Let’s start out with the steals.

Over the past five seasons Upton has swiped at least 31 bases each campaign. There is only one other player in baseball who can match that mark, and it’s the man that Upton will be replacing in the outfield for the Braves – Michael Bourn. The speed alone makes Upton a fantasy asset. The difference though between Upton and everyone else that steals bases at his level is the power that he displays (which they don’t). Over the past three years Upton has hit 69 homers in addition to his 109 steals. Over the past three years only five batters have stolen more bases. If you add together all five players they have hit a combined total of 78 homers: Juan Pierre 4, Bourn 13, Rajai Davis 14, Ichiro 20 and Coco Crisp 27.

The last three years Upton has hit at least 18 homers each season. Thirty three players have done that.

The last three years Upton has stolen at least 31 bases each season. Only four men have done that.

The last three years Upton has gone 18/31 each season. He is the only player in baseball to do that.

Put it another way, the last three years Upton has averaged 23 homers and 36 steals.

Ryan Braun hasn’t done that at any point in his career.
Carlos Gonzalez hasn’t done that.
Matt Kemp hasn’t done that.
Ian Kinsler hasn’t done that.

The combination of power and speed with Mr. Upton is elite. For me, it helps to erase his deficiencies in other areas (chiefly his batting average).

B.J. also scores runs, even if he never gets to an elite total. Since the 2007 season he’s scored 500 runs, the 29th highest total in baseball. He’s also been very consistent in getting there. Upton has scored at least 79 runs each of the past six seasons, something only eight other players in baseball have done. Moreover, if you look at the past two years do you know how many fellas have scored at least 79 runs each season with 78 RBIs? The answer is 16.

Look, I’m not oblivious to the obvious issues with his batting average. If you roster Upton you will need to make sure you augment him with players that are strong in the batting average category. However, after the elites are gone in the outfield, I fail to see why anyone would turn away from Upton because his consistently high level production in the counting categories make him a draft day target in this scribes mind.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Freddie Freeman

Freddie Freeman, the Braves’ first baseman, had a solid second season. In fact, “solid” may not quite be the correct adjective to use when describing his 2012 efforts. Some will see the drop in batting average and the nearly identical OPS and worry that he didn’t take a step forward in Year II. Some will remember the constant physical issues that hindered him included a couple of week span where his vision became an issue. I on the other hand think the seeds are being laid for a potentially bountiful payoff in 2013.

Freeman hit .282 in 2011 with a .795 OPS.
In 2012 he hit .259 with a .796 OPS.

I can see how no one would be excited about that. First off, .259 is a league average number, and slugging first baseman can’t exist with a sub .800 OPS. But, I’m telling you, Freeman really did take a few steps last season. Let’s start with the obvious.

Freeman added two homers to his 2011 total despite 31 fewer at-bats as he hit 23 homers.

Freeman added 18 more RBIs, remember, in 31 fewer at-bats.

Freeman scored 24 more times, a significant improvement.

Add those three things up and you end up with 23 homers, 94 RBIs and 91 runs scored. Know how many first baseman went 23-90-90 in 2012? Get ready to be shocked. The answer is three – Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion and Freddie Freeman – and Freeman was the only full-time first baseman to do it. That news flash alone should make you look at Freeman a second time.

Freeman cut his strikeout rate from 22.4 percent down to 20.8 percent, a small improvement, but moving in the right direction we are.

Freeman boosted his walk rate from 8.3 percent to 10.3 percent. Again, a relatively minor improvement but an improvement nonetheless. As a result his BB/K mark went from a below league average 0.37 to just slightly better than league average at 0.50.

Freeman upped his fly ball rate from 35 to 37 percent (the league average is usually right around 35-37 percent). He’ll need to boost this number significantly if he hopes to become a 30 homer bat on a consistent basis as he’s just not hitting enough fly ball. Another incremental improvement can be seen in his HR/F ratio that went from 14 to 14.8 percent.

Freeman boosted his line drive rate from an already impressive 23 percent to 26 percent in 2012. That 26 percent total was the fourth best mark in baseball. Given improvements in his walk rate, his strikeout rate and his line drive rate, how did his batting average fall? Part of the blame can be laid squarely at the BABIP god’s feet as he posted a .295 mark. Given his ability to hit liners, and his power stroke, it’s pretty shocking to see a 26 percent line drive rate lead to a sub .260 batting average. In fact, of the 10 men in baseball who had a line drive rate last season of 25 percent all of them posted at least a .319 BABIP. Moreover, here are the nine other men’s batting averages (remember Freeman hit .259).

.300 Dexter Fowler
.309 Jordan Pacheco
.281 Alejandro De Aza
.306 Marco Scutaro
.313 Robinson Cano
.281 Chris Johnson
.313 Prince Fielder
.319 Joe Mauer
.294 Alex Gordon

As you can easily tell, none of the other nine men batted less than .281. So hypothetically, let’s assume that Freeman returns to the .280 level in batting average, something that isn’t a stretch to think could happen at all given that Freeman did bat .282 as a rookie in 2011. Let’s say he takes just a wee bit of a step forward across the board in Year III like he did in Year II. Let’s say that results in a .280-25-100-90 line. How would that look on the back of his baseball card? I know you’re asking, an I’ve got the answer – eight. That’s the number of players who went .280-25-100-90 in 2012 (Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Josh Hamilton, Adam Jones, Adrian Beltre, Edwin Encarnacion and Alex Rios). If Freeman were to get to the those levels, and I see no reason to think that such a season isn’t possible, just how effective will he be on draft day given that his cost will be so much less than the others that I just listed?

Freeman doesn’t seem to be an obvious candidate to explode, the type of guy to hit .300 with 35 homers and 115 RBIs, but that doesn’t mean that he took the step back last season that some people perceived him to. In truth, he seems primed for a third year breakout, even if it’s along somewhat muted lines compared to the superstars of the game, but even so he still could be an excellent, an I mean top shelf, first sacker in the fantasy game in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Nate McLouth

Nate McLouth enjoyed his greatest success with the Pirates. Therefore, it only seems logical that he chose to return to Pittsburgh to try and rediscover his his lost game. The club and player agreed on a one year deal for $1.75 million, with $450K in incentives also available, in a low risk move for the Pirates. Can McLouth reward that faith, return to prominence with the Pirates, and once again be a solid outfield option in the fantasy game?

In 2008 McLouth was one of the surprise stories of the year on his way to being an elite outfield option in the fantasy game. Nate hit decent .267, but it was his other numbers that stood out. McLouth hit 26 homers and stole 23 bases to pull off the old 20/20 trick, and he also knocked in 94 runs and score 113 times. It was a stupendous fantasy effort.

For a follow up in 2009 Nate saw all his numbers drop, but he was still a solid fantasy contributor. Splitting the year between the Pirates and the Braves, McLouth hit .256, socked 20 homers, stole 19 bases, drove in 70 runs and scored 86 times. One steal from a 2nd straight 20/20, McLouth was the only  outfielder in baseball to hit 20 homers, steal 15 bases, knock in 70 runs and score 85 times in both 2008 and 2009. I told you he was an impressive fantasy play.

Then things went horribly wrong. Seemingly never fully healthy in his two seasons in Atlanta, he even had a stretch in the minor leagues to try and find his lost game, McLouth appeared in only 166 games. In those 509 at-bats he hit a sickly .210 with 10 homers, 40 RBI, 66 runs and 11 steals. I told you it was awful didn’t I?

So what went wrong? First, and most obvious, is the fact that Nate struggled with injuries. There’s nothing you can do if you are hurt. Is this a trend that will continue moving forward for Nate? It’s possible especially when you factor in that he plays the game very hard, but he’s also only 30 years old and that isn’t exactly an age that sends up red flags.

Performance is another issue to consider. McLouth posted a some awful numbers the last two years including a BABIP in the .220′s both times. Given that he owns a .276 career mark, and never failed to post a mark of at least .271 over his five big league seasons, a batting average rebound seems likely in 2012. He also posted the best BB/K mark of his career, 0.85, in 2011. That’s another good sign. It also makes sense that a fella who owns a 10.1 HR/F ratio for his career would see a regression to the mean after posting marks of 7.5 and 5.3 percent the past two years. At the same time, it’s not like you can just ignore the past two seasons when his skills seemingly eroded.

Will McLouth get a chance to play everyday? That’s a good question. At this point the Pirates have burgeoning superstar Andrew McCutchen who will obviously be in the lineup every day, and the team is fully committed to giving Jose Tabata a chance to fulfill his potential. That being the case, McLouth will have to battle with Alex Presley for playing time in the outfield (Presley would seem to have the lead in the battle), and that situation could get even more crowded if the team brings back Derrek Lee or signs someone else to play first base which would likely force Garrett Jones into the outfield mix (as you can tell from looking over at Fleaflicker, there is no love right now for McLouth). If McLouth plays everyday I think he makes a solid buy low option late in a mixed league draft, but with the Pirates crowded outfield situation at the moment McLouth is looking like a depth option in the outfield in NL-only leagues until the playing time issues work themselves out.

Looking to sign up for fantasy baseball this season? If so, try out Yahoo.com. If you sign up through this LINK, you’ll also be helping out BaseballGuys.com.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Martin Prado

Martin Prado is one heck of a hitter. You may not believe that statement if you look at his middling 2011 numbers, but trust me, when everything is going right for this righty swinger he has the look of a guy who could put up a .300 plus batting average every year. So what happened last year? Let’s look back before we move forward.

2009: .307/.358/.464
2010: .307/.350/.459
2011: .260/.302/.385

Clearly something happened in ’11. After two virtually identical seasons Prado failed to post an OBP in 2011 that matched his batting average from the previous two seasons.

Prado has never been an overly patient batter, but things have taken a turn for the worse of late. In fact, over each of the last three years his walk rate has declined (8.3 percent, 7.2, 6.1 and 5.8). Luckily Prado doesn’t strike out much at all, and his 8.8 percent K-rate last year was a career best. He’s also posted a BB/K mark of least 0.61 in three of the past four years, and even in his “down” 2010 effort his 0.47 mark was right on the big league average. Clearly, this doesn’t explain the batting average dip he experienced last year.

Prado posted a GB/FB rate between 1.15 and 1.19 from 2007 to 2009. Then in 2010 he hit a boatload of grounders leading to a 1.59 GB/FB ratio. Honestly that isn’t the end of the world, it’s not like he’s a home run hitter, but it was a big shift. That number regressed somewhat in 2011 dropping to 1.47, but that’s deceiving since he actually had a career-high GB-rate of 51 percent. How did his GB/FB ratio drop then in 2011? Simply put, he didn’t hit anything on a line last season. Prado, who owns a career line drive rate of 18.9 percent, a mark that he reached each year from 2007-10, saw his LD-rate shrink to 14.6 percent. Given the type of hitter he is, and his track record in this category, it’s extremely odd to see such a low number. In fact, I’d say it’s nearly impossible to explain other than to say that he was pretty an unlucky fella last year, at least at some level.. Just take a look over at the BABIP column for some further detail here. Prado owns a .315 career BABIP and had posted a mark of at least .321 each year from 2007-10 before seeing a massive dip last season down to .266. Just 28 years old, it’s hard to lean on a skills decline to explain any of this so we are likely left with some combination of (a) bad luck and (b) injury induced struggles.

So what I’m saying here should be obvious – Prado should rebound in 2011. He’s simply been too consistent at the dish early in his career to think that at age 28 he’s lost it. The batting average should rebound, and with it his OBP should return to better than the league average (Prado is a career .293 hitter who hit at least .307 each year from 2008-10). If he plays everyday that would mean he’s had a shot to replicate the numbers he posted in 2010. He’s not likely to hit 20 homers, and 10 steals might be a pipe dream, but hitting .300 while scoring a bushel of runs should be well within his reach for the the 2012 season. Prado also is valued for his defensive acumen in the fantasy game that includes his ability to wear multiple hats (he played 100 games in the outfield last season and 41 at third base, a year after he also appeared in 98 games as a second baseman). Given his glove an ability to hit for a high average, he should be someone you’d willingly target on draft day 2012. Don’t draft him expecting him to exceed his 2010 effort but he would seem to be a near lock to better the middling totals he posted for the Braves in 2011.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Jason Heyward

There are few players in the game with more raw talent then Jason Heyward. At the same time, there are few players in the game with more questions surrounding them than Heyward after he had an abysmal 2011 season. Worse than the numbers he posted is the fact that he is perilously close to having the tag of “soft” stuck to his name forever, and there isn’t anything less flattering that you can have had as a nickname.

As a rookie, Heyward lashed line drives around the field as if multiple All-Star games were a foregone conclusion. Heyward hit .277 with 18 homers, 72 RBI, 83 runs scored and 11 steals over the course of 142 games in an excellent rookie season. Heyward also displayed great plate discipline with a .393  OBP. When you can do all of that as a 21 year old, the world is your oyster. Or so we thought. Heyward saw a regression in almost every imaginable way in his season season.

He lost four homers from his rookie season.
He had 30 fewer RBI.
He scored 33 fewer runs.
He stole two fewer bases.
His batting average fell .050 points.
His OBP dropped .074 points.
His SLG fell from .456 down to .389. Yes, his SLG in Year II was lower than his OBP in Year I.

Was his effort as bad as it seemed? In some respects there is no doubt – Heyward was an unmitigated disaster. In other respects, Heyward wasn’t as awful as it appeared.

Heyward’s K-rate was unchanged from his rookie season as it moved a tenth falling from 20.5 percent down to 20.4 percent. His walk rate was still solid at 11.2 percent, though that was 3.4 percent below his rookie rate. The result was a 0.55 BB/K mark that was still better than the league average. So why did he hit .227? He simply didn’t hit any line drives. Heyward produced a 13.1 percent line drive rate, nearly five points below his rookie mark of 17.8 percent. There is no way puts the barrel on the ball as infrequently in 2012. Since he didn’t hit anything on a line, it’s no surprise that his BABIP fell from .335 to .260. Add those two years up and his BABIP is still right on the big league average of .302.

Despite the loss of liners, Heyward actually did a better job at the plate in two respects. (1) His GB-rate dropped by over a point. (2) His fly ball rate went up by six percent. It may not have translated to anything in 2011, but a few more fly balls will be needed for Heyward to be a 25 homer threat (his HR/F rate was still 13.9 percent in 2011, not an awful number). Bottom line though is that he has to start lifting the ball as his 54 percent ground ball rate is something that Juan Pierre should have, not a guy who stands 6’5” and weighs 240 pounds. Oddly, for those of you into advanced metrics, Heyward’s Isolated Power mark was .179 in 2010, and despite all his struggles in 2011, it only fell to .162 (Isolated Power records a players raw power by taking SLG-AVG).

So what do you do with Heyward in 2012? To me, he’s likely to be one of the better bargains in the game (he was drafted in the sixth round in a recent mock draft of experts though, so it all depends on who you are drafting with in terms of his “bargainess”). Heyward is still only 22 years old. He’s still one of the most impressive physical specimens in the game. He’s only one season removed from a pretty damn impressive rookie effort. The ball still makes a different sound when it comes off his bat. Add that all up and I’m buying Heyward, especially if he slips in drafts. Let others worry about that “soft” label while you take advantage of the discount you will get on a guy who still oozes talent.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: October6, 2011

Relief Pitcher Review

(1) Jose Valverde 49-for-49 in saves.

(2) Craig Kimbrel dominates before late season letdown.

(3) Kenley Jansen historically good when it comes to strikeouts.

(4) Look how many closers came out of nowhere in 20211: Jordan Walden, Sergio Santos, Kyle Farnsworth, Fernando Salas, Javy Guerra, Mark Melancon.

By Ray Flowers

Misery Loves Company

I know everyone is doing it, and while I’m not a follower – never have been – I felt the need to write the obligatory article dealing with the two massive collapses authored by the Red Sox and the Braves.

THE RED SOX

On September 1st the Sox led the AL East by 1.5 games over the Yankees, and they were nine games ahead of the Rays. The Sox maintained that nine game lead over the Rays as late as September 3rd. They proceeded to go 6-18 from that point forward to becomes the first time in the history of the game to squander a nine game September lead. “I’m devastated. I’m heartbroken,” Dustin Pedroia said. “To play hard for 161 games like we have and have it end like this…”

Why did they collapse? The offense was fine down the stretch, but it was the pitching that let them down. The Red Sox starters posted an ERA of 7.08 for the month of September.

THE BRAVES

If not for the Red Sox collapse, the Braves flop would be considered the worst in the history of the game.

On August 26th the Braves had a 10.5 game lead over the Cardinals.
On September 5th the Braves had an 8.5 game lead over the Cardinals.

You can blame injuries to Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens, the Braves #2 and #3 starters, and no one could honestly claim that wasn’t a huge hole to fill. But still, going 9-18 including a 5-game losing streak to end the season? You just witnessed the greatest collapse in the history of the National League. “I can’t fathom it,” Freddie Freeman said.

Pitiful.

ROTATION QUESTION

You tell me, which rotation would you rather face this postseason?

Kyle Lohse, Edwin Jackson, Chris Carpenter
Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson, Joe Saunders
CC Sabathia, Ivan Nova, Freddy Garcia

OR

Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Madison Bumgarner

Who out there isn’t thanking the baseball gods for not having to face the Giants top-3 in the playoffs this year?

CHEERS TO

Justin Verlander led the American League in wins (24), ERA (2.40) and strikeouts (250) to capture the Pitcher’s Triple Crown.

Clayton Kershaw led the National League in wins (21 to tie with Ian Kennedy), ERA (2.28) and strikeouts (248). I’m going to give him the NL Triple Crown as well even though he tied for the league lead in wins.

BOOS TO

I know it’s a 162 game season, and that Jose Reyes had 537 at-bats on the year so it’s not really fair to call him out for one game, but it was weak sauce that he bunted for a hit in his first at-bat and then pulled himself from his final game to win the NL batting title over Ryan Braun (it ended up being a .337 to .332 race). For the story of how a real man does it, make sure you click on the link to the story about Ted Williams final day in 1941.

By Ray Flowers