(1) Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens both out for the first round of the playoffs if the Braves make it?
(2) Hanley Ramirez has shoulder surgery.
(3) Joe Mauer done for the year. Is Justin Morneau to follow?
(4) Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez in danger of being shut down?
By Ray Flowers
(1) The FSTA Convention in Las Vegas.
(2) Where will Manny Ramirez, Vladimir Guerrero and Johnny Damon end up?
(3) The Athletics team wide makeover is impressive. Here is an additionl report on their arms in A’s Astounding Bullpen.
(4) The Yankees signed Andruw Jones to a 1-year deal.
(5) Nate McLouth to be given shot to return to starting in CF.
You can read more about the Jones and McLouth news in MLB News and Notes.
By Ray Flowers
With the Winter Meetings complete, the news is starting to slow a bit in the world of the Hot Stove, but there are still plenty of attention worthy events taking place.
Jay Bruce: The Reds didn’t want to risk alienating their young power hitting star, and with the arbitration process being one that could send his contract out of sight, the Reds opted for cost certainty by locking up Bruce with a 6-year, $51 million deal (there is also a club option for $12 million). Bruce is coming off his best season of .281 with 25 homers and 70 RBI, and he kicked things into warp drive in the second half of the season pulling a Troy Tulowitzki late in the year with 15 homers, 29 RBI and a .338 average over his last 43 games. I’m all for clubs signing their young stars to deals like this. It’s a certain risk, especially when you consider that Bruce hasn’t been an All-Star performer for more than about 65 games in his career, but if clubs don’t sign their players to deals like this they risk losing their young stars through free agency (The End of Baseball?). The Reds are now focused on signing Joey Votto to a long-term deal, though that negotiation will likely be a bit more difficult after Votto won the NL MVP Award.
Ryan Garko: What, he is still playing baseball? Yes he is, though you will have to travel to Korea to watch him play in 2011.
Zack Greinke: The Royals continue to listen to offers for their ace, but GM Dayton Moore said the team is not actively soliciting offers for the hurler. It seems like Greinke will be dealt once the Cliff Lee saga concludes, and if the Rangers lose out on Lee, expect them to go all in to add Greinke.
Cliff Lee: He is taking his time to sift through at least two offers that appear to be for 7-years from the Yankees and Rangers. As former GM Steve Phillips said yesterday on The Fanball Drive on Sirius/XM Radio, he has some serious concerns about a contract that long for a pitcher. As he pointed out, a player breaks/tears something and he rehabs the injury to come back at nearly 100 percent. A similar injury to a pitcher could cause that pitcher to return at 85 percent, or worse yet, even end his career. By the way, how did those $100+ million deals for hurlers Kevin Brown, Mike Hampton, Barry Zito and Johan Santana work out?
Hideki Matsui: Spurned by Adrian Beltre who laughably suggested that he would love to play for the Athletics (a total B.S. move designed to drive up his cost on the open market), the A’s seem to have their sites set on Hideki Matsui. Godzilla is coming off a .274-21-84 season with the Angels, and he has knocked in at least 84 runs in each of the six seasons in his career in which he has come to bat at least 450 times. So even though he is old an unexciting, he is still productive at the dish. As for Beltre, it would appear that Athletics have moved on after he rejected their 5-year, $64 million deal (to be fair he never rejected it as he actually never officially responded). Reports suggest that Beltre is looking for $70-$85 million over five years. Will anyone pony up that much dough?
Vicente Padilla: Signed a 1-year, low dollar deal ($2 million) to return to the Dodgers. He is being viewed as a jack-of-all trades option who could start, help out in long relief, and potentially even close if need be. He is 33 years old and coming off a wildly successful season that saw him post a 1.08 WHIP and a K/9 rate of 7.96, but ff history is a guide, he will not repeat that success as the K-rate and WHIP were career bests. He also posted a 4.07 ERA, his best mark in seven seasons. It’s a minimal investment for the Dodgers and a good signing, but be careful with Padilla in the fantasy game.
Jose Reyes: The 7-year, $142 million deal that Carl Crawford signed could impact the Mets ability to sign Reyes long-term. Working in the final year of his current deal ($11 million), if Reyes bounces back to his pre-injury form you can better believe he will use Crawford’s deal as a starting point for negotiations. Will that lead the Mets to move Reyes at some point prior to the trading deadline?
George Sherrill: Signed a 1-year deal for $1.2 million to join the Braves, Sherrill doesn’t figure to be in the closer’s mix as the team will likely turn over the 9th to Craig Kimbrel and potentially Jonny Venters if the situation dictates that move. Sherrill’s numbers look awful – 6.69 ERA and a 1.93 WHIP over 36.1 innings – but he was still death on lefties holding them to a .192 average. He’ll have solid value as a holds option in NL-only leagues.
Justin Upton: It appears nearly certain that he will remain with the Diamondbacks. According to a report, GM Kevin Towers only talked to one team about the talented outfielder at the Winter Meetings which seems to suggest one of two things. (1) The D’backs asking price was prohibitive to getting a deal done. (2) Teams were scared off by the continued issues that Upton has had with his shoulder. It’s probably for the best anyway as the D’backs don’t have anywhere near the financial resources to replace Upton’s productivity. Just 23 years old, Upton has averaged 22 homers, 78 RBI, 79 runs and 19 steals in his two full seasons all the while hitting .287. Kind of makes you wonder though – why in the world would the Diamondbacks even be entertaining offers for their burgeoning superstar? Perhaps that wing of his is a long-term concern?
By Ray Flowers
Mariano Rivera wants two years from the Yankees – and they will be more than happy to give him that on his next contract offer. Derek Jeter, on the other hand, wants at least four with some reports hinting that he would actually prefer five or six years. Seems like the Yankees aren’t buying as they are set to officially offer him a 3-year, $45 million deal. Given that Jeter’s defense at short is sliding, that he is 36 years old, and that he is coming off the worst full season of his career (.270-10-67-111-18), it’s more than a fair offer. At the same time Jeter is Mr. Yankee, and if he were to bolt the team the revolt from the fans would be a P.R. nightmare. Look for the two sides to eventually settle on a four year deal – Jeter isn’t going anywhere – even if he isn’t the player he was just a couple of seasons ago.
Magglio Ordonez is apparently fully recovered from ankle surgery and he is ready to start looking for a place to ply his wares in 2011. His agent is Scott Boras, so you can count out small market clubs since Boras has probably put together a presentation saying that Ordonez is a better right-handed hitter than Albert Pujols. I will say this for Ordonez, he rebounded in 2010 after a terrible 2009 effort that saw him hit only nine homers with 50 RBI in 131 games. Limited because of injury to 84 games in 2010, he socked 12 homers, had 59 RBI, scored 56 times and hit .303 for the Tigers. Also, let me give Mags some props. In 10 of the last 12 years he has hit .300, and in each of his last eight seasons of more than 500 at-bats he has knocked in at least 99 runs. He is no Albert Pujols, but he is still a darn effective big league hitter.
Less than a week away from Thanksgiving, an I’ve already started to salivate over the thought of mashed potatoes and yams with marshmallows. Time to do a few extra sit-ups to make sure I can gorge next week.
Jonathan Papelbon is arbitration eligible, and it appears that after making $9.35 million last year that he will be asked for something like $11.5 million for the coming campaign. Would the Red Sox simply non-tender Papelbon and allow the 9th inning to be taken over by Bard? After all, Bard made a mere $416,000 last year and still isn’t eligible for arbitration. It seems unlikely, honestly I can’t envision it happening, but it’s doesn’t appear to be crazy when you compare the 2010 performance of the two righty relievers to one another.
Papelbon:1.27 WHIP, 10.21 K/9, 2.71 K/BB, 0.94 HR/9, 0.87 GB/FB, 3.51 FIP
D. Bard: 1.00 WHIP, 9.16 K/9, 2.53 K/BB, 0.72 HR/9, 1.23 GB/FB, 3.37 FIP
Pretty darn close isn’t it? It’s also a concern that Papelbon posted the worst BB/9 mark of his last five seasons (3.76), and also his worst K/BB (almost a batter and a half below his career mark of 4.02). Papelbon also allowed a five year worst in HR/9, WHIP and ERA (it was 3.90, more than a run an a half above his career 2.22 mark). That’s a lot of indicators going in the wrong direction to be giving a guy a raise to over $11 million.
Dan Uggla appears to be happy with the Braves, an as expected, he also seems interested in staying with the club for a while. Uggla said that he wants what is “fair” in a contract offer, but that he isn’t going to try and become the highest paid player of all-time or anything like that. “A lot of people know that this is the closest big league team to my home [in Tennessee], and it creates an incredible opportunity for my family and friends to be able to come down and watch on a more consistent basis,” Uggla said. For my thoughts on Uggla and the great move the Braves made to get him make sure you give Who is the AL Cy Young a read.
By Ray Flowers
I have to admit that I’m pretty confused by this deal. Maybe I’m underating defensive acumen, but to me the NL East deal between the Marlins and Braves on Tuesday appears to be a slame dunk win for the perenial contending Braves.
The Deal:
Braves receive: 2B Dan Uggla
Marlins receive: INF Omar Infante and RP Mike Dunn.
First off, it’s very, very odd that the two divisional opponents would pull off a deal of this magnitude with one another..
Second, it should be pointed out that Uggla has one more year of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent after the 2011 season. Clearly, the Braves believe they will be able to sign him long-term (reportedly the Marlins offered 4-years and $48 million, to which Uggla asked for 5-years, and $71 million). The Braves are certainly putitng themselves in a slightly precarious position do to the uncertainty surrounding Uggla’s future, but they clearly anticipate their winning atmopshere, not to mention new manager Fredi Gonzalez, who worked with Uggla in Florida, to help them to sway Uggla into staying for a while in Atlanta.
Now to the players.
Omar Infante was an All-Star in 2010 as he had the best season of his career as he hit .321. However, he has little power, he hit only eight homers and 15 doubles in 471 at-bats, and he rarely walked leading to a solid but far from great .359 OBP considering how high is average was. He also has stolen all of nine bases the past three years, and his career slash line is league average at .274/.319/.395. He helps out all over the field (65 games at 2B, 29 at 3B, 19 at SS, 21 at OF), but he has little shot to repeat his effort from last season which would, idealy, leave him as a super sub on a good team, not an everyday starter as the Marlins are planning on him being.
Dunn has impressive stuff that includes a fastball that resides at 95 mph and a power 86 mph slider. He’s used those pitches to great effect with 32 Ks in 23 big league innings (he also posted 64 Ks in 47.1 innings at Triple-A in ’10). However, Dunn has also walked 22 batters in those 23 big league innings, and his BB/9 number at Triple-A was 4.75 per nine innings last year — and that was a 3-year best. Exactly. Tons of stuff but little consistency so far.
As for Uggla, all he has done is have the best 5-year run to start his career of any second basemen who has ever played the game. Moreover, it can be argued rather easily that he is working on the greatest 5-year power run in the annals of baseball for a second basemen. Uggla has produced 5-straight seasons of at least 27 homers, 88 RBI and 84 runs scored, and that is the longest such streak – ever (no other second basemen has done it more than twice in a row). Actually, Uggla is one of only four players at any position who is working on a 5-year streak of 27-88-84, and the others are Albert Pujols, Ryan Howard and Mark Teixieria. That’s right, Uggla is a consistnetly effective offensive weapon. I don’t really care that he is a K machine – at least 149 in each of the past four years – or if he owns a mere .263 career batting average, or if he really can’t play second base. The man can mash, and that is what the Braves will hang their hats on – a middle of the order threat who, at 31 years of age, seems a near lock for 25 homers, 90 RBI and 85 runs scored. Oh yeah, he has also missed a grand total of 34 games in five seasons.
This deal is a slam dunk win for the Braves if they can sign Uggla to a contract extension.
One other thing. Check your leagues games played requirements. I mention this because Martin Prado looks likely to move to the outfield. That means Prado could concievably qualify at second third and outfield in 2011. However, if he will only qualify at outfield if that is the only position he will actually play in 2011, make sure you realize that there isn’t much value to a .300-12-70 line from an outfielder if he only steals five bases.
For another view of the deal make sure to read Jason Collette’s Fishy Deals.
By Ray Flowers
I came across a note today on Twitter, and if you aren’t following Baseball Guys on Twitter shame on you. Here is the note from the official MLB twitter feed: “Congrats to @Padres closer Heath Bell on 2010 MLB Delivery Man of the Year Award. Converted 47 of 50 save opportunities, MLB-best 94%.” Wait a second, did I miss something? What about the majors saves leader, Brian Wilson? Let’s compare the two relievers from the NL West.
Wilson had 48 saves. Bell had 47.
Wilson had a 1.81 ERA. Bell had a 1.93 ERA.
Wilson had a 1.18 WHIP. Bell had a 1.20 WHIP.
Wilson had a .220 BAA. Bell had a .221 BAA.
Wilson had an 11.21 K/9. Bell had a 11.06 K/9.
Wilson had a 3.13 BB/9. Bell had a 3.60 BB/9.
Wilson had a 3.56 K/BB. Bell had a 3.07 K/BB.
Wilson had a 86.1 LOB%. Bell had a 81.1 LOB%
Am I missing something here? Did they really erase the fact that Wilson was a better pitcher in 2010 and give Bell the award because Wilson had two more blown saves (five to three), or because he had three fewer wins (six to three)? Please tell me they didn’t. You tell me, am I off here? If I am, I just don’t see it.
Cliff Lee is 6-0 with a 1.44 ERA in seven postseason starts. In those starts he has struck out 54 in 56.1 innings while walking just six batters. This season, in two starts against the Rays, he struck out 21 while not walking a single batter in 16 innings.
A.J. Burnett is slated to get a start in the ALCS against the Rangers. He was truly brutal down the stretch with a 1-7 record and 6.61 ERA over the final two months of the year. He also went 4-14 with a 6.48 ERA over the final four months of the season. On the year he went 10-15 with a 5.25 ERA, and that is the worst ERA by any Yankees’ hurler in history who tossed at least 180-innings. In history folks. So why is he starting in the playoffs? It can’t be because he had a 2.50 ERA with 17 Ks in 18 innings this season against the Rangers, can it?
Bryce Harper will see some action in the Arizona Fall League. The 17 year old, he’ll be 18 on Saturday, has been placed on the “taxi squad” of the Scottsdale Scorpions which means he will play two days a week. Despite all the hype and hoopla, Harper is likely two years away from the majors as is, and he will begin the 2011 season in Single-A. More on the phenom can be found at All Nats All the Time.
With Billy Wagner heading into retirement as the most dominant left-handed closer in big league history (I don’t care if he finished his career with two fewer saves than John Franco), the Braves will now turn to a new face in the 9th inning, an it almost certainly will be Craig Kimbrel. If you aren’t in a keeper league and don’t know who this kid is take note – the dude has absolutely filthy stuff. Kimbrel tossed 20.2 innings for the Braves this season positing a 0.44 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. With an average fastball over 95 mph he struggled with control walking nearly seven batters per nine innings (6.97 per nine). However it’s that heat that makes Kimbrel special, and it led to a K/9 rate this season of 17.42. If you’ve never heard of a mark that high before I understand why – it’s the highest mark in the history of baseball for a pitcher who tossed at least 20-innings in a season. Told you he was someone you need to know for 2011.
By Ray Flowers
(1) Stephen Strasburg scratched from start.
(2) Dan Haren (forearm) checks out OK.
(3) Huston Street injured in BP – scary situation.
(4) Adam Dunn and Nationals at standstill in contract talks?
(5) Gil Meche has shoulder surgery, done for year.
(6) Jason Bay suffering from concussion.
(7) Troy Tulowitzki returns to action.
(8) Nate McLouth sent to minors.
By Ray Flowers
A competitor of the first degree, Tim Hudson has been greatly overlooked for the majority of his career. First he was somewhat hidden by the presence of Mark Mulder and Barry Zito in Oakland, and then he moved on to Atlanta where he toiled as a top shelf pitching option, though once again one who failed to generate as much attention as his production warranted. However, after a wonderful first half he was named to the 2010 NL All-Star team, a much deserved honor given his 2.44 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 8-4 record through 17 starts. In the next couple of sections I’ll relate some of the historical success of Hudson before speaking directly to what I expect from him in the second half of the regular season.
A History Lesson
As a rookie Hudson went 11-2 with a 3.23 ERA for the A’s over 21 starts. He ended up fifth in the Rookie of the Year Voting.
In year two he won 20 games for the first and only time as he went 20-6 as he finished second in the AL Cy Young race despite the fact that he posted the second worst ERA of his career at 4.14.
In year III (2001), he made a career high 35 starts as he went 18-9 with a 3.37 ERA.
You get the picture. He’s been very good for a long time. In fact, here are some historical facts about Hudson that speak to just how good he has been.
* From 1999-2008 he won at least 11 games each season. Only he and Mike Mussina did that. Moreover, in each season of his career in which he has thrown 130-innings he has won at least 11 games.
* In his career he is 156-82, good for a .655 winning percentage. As a result, he is one of just 10 pitchers in big league history with a winning percentage over .650 and at least 150 victories in a career. Think about that. Only 10 men have ever done that.
* Hudson owns a 3.43 ERA in his career despite spending six of his 12 seasons in the AL. He owns a career 1.28 ERA+ meaning his ERA has been 28 percent better than league average (park and era adjusted). To place that number in context, that 128 mark is tied for 43rd all time with guys like Curt Schilling, Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver.
Yes, that means he has been historically good.
Breaking Down 2010
Hudson deserves to be on the All-Star team this season, but that doesn’t mean there aren’t concerns. Let’s just plow through them.
1- His ERA hasn’t been below 3.00 since 2003.
2- His WHIP hasn’t been 1.15 or lower since 2003.
3- His .221 batting average against would be a career low (.250 lifetime mark).
4- Despite all the success his 4.57 K/9 mark is a batter and a half below his career rate (6.04). It would also be a career worst mark.
5- His 3.23 BB/9 is above his career rate (2.79) and would be his second worst mark since 2000.
6- His line drive rate is laughably low at 10.6 percent. His career rate is 18.0 and it has been at least 16.5 percent each of the past eight years.
7- His BABIP mark is .234 which would be a career low (.286 lifetime mark).
8- His left on base percentage is sky high at 84.0 percent. It’s 74.0 percent for his career.
9- His GB/FB ratio is 3.15, a mark that would set a new career best.
Could Hudson have a second half to match the first? Stranger things certainly have happened. At the same time there is so much out of whack here that it would be wise not to lay a big portion of your paycheck on Hudson continuing to dominate as the season wears on. He should be fine and concerns about his Tommy John surgery obviously have vanished, but that doesn’t mean that it wouldn’t be a good time to see if you can parlay his hot start into a big return on the trade market.
By Ray Flowers
With Opening Day 2010 finally upon us, I’ll hit nine quick stories that caught my fancy.
(1) Albert Pujols makes MVP statement.
(2) Jason Heyward hits HR, makes history.
(3) Johan Santana cruises in first start.
(4) Carlos Gonzalez four hits for Rockies.
(5) Carlos Gomez four hits (incl. HR) and a steal.
(6) Garrett Jones blasts two homers.
(7) Shaun Marcum takes no-hitter into 7th inning.
(8) Jason Frasor blows first save for Blue Jays.
(9) Mark Buehrle tosses 7 scoreless against Indians.
By Ray Flowers
I got into a debate with one of the guys who follows me on Twitter today, it actually turned into a multitude of voices offering their thoughts, about the validity of calling Jair Jurrjens an “ace.” Obviously Twitter is a poor place to debate that, no one can make a valid argument when you are looking at a limit of 140 characters, but it got me to thinking about the question which prompted this piece.
Jair Jurrjens was a wonderful fantasy piece last year as he posted a 2.60 ERA, the third best mark in the NL, on his way to 14 victories in 215 innings for the Braves. If your definition of an “ace” is an innings eater who wins game, I can accept the position that he was an ace last year. However, if you are claiming he is an ace because of his skill set or because of his future outlook, I’m afraid the outlook is much bleaker.
Even with his success last year there are plenty of reasons to be dubious about the potential for a repeat this season (and I’m not even referring to the health questions about his shoulder which introduce the proverbial wrench to the proceedings).
(1) Jurrjens struck out 6.36 batters per nine innings. The major league average last season was 6.99. Clearly, his rate was unimpressive.
(2) Jurrjens did produce a slightly better than average walk rate last season at 3.14 per nine, the average in the bigs was 3.46, but because of the poor strikeout total his K/BB mark of 2.03 was only one hundredth better than the league average of 2.02.
(3) Ground ball pitchers like Jurrjens can still be mighty effective at the above levels, but the problem is he lost a lot of those grounders last year as batters turned them into flyballs. After a 51.5 percent GB-rate in 2008, that number dropped all the way to 42.9 percent last season. As a result his terrific 1.94 G/F rate of ’08 fell to almost exactly the league average at 1.10 which puts his future performance in question.
A low strikeout mark, a middling K/BB rate, and a barely average G/F certainly doesn’t scream out third in the league in ERA now does it?
Furthermore, here are another couple of notes of worry.
(4) Jurrjens posted a left on base percentage mark of 79.4 percent. The big league average is usually right around 70 percent, and that 79.4 percent mark last year with fifth in baseball. Logic would dictate a regression in 2010, probably much closer to his 71 percent mark from 2008 than last year’s near 80 percent rate. For some context, only eight guys posted a mark of 79 percent last year, only four did it in 2008 and no one pulled off the feat in 2007 (min. 162 IP).
(5) Jurrjens didn’t record nearly as strong a number in a myriad of ERA related measures that he did with his raw ERA. Just take a look.
His ERC ERA was 3.04.
His FIP ERA was 3.68 (actually higher than his 3.59 mark in 2008 that led to a raw ERA of 3.68).
His DIPS ERA was 3.82.
What those three measures clearly point out is that Jurrjens was pretty lucky to post a sub 3.00 ERA last season.
Is Jurrjens an “ace”? I don’t think he will ever be an ace in the bigs or in the fantasy game. He simply doesn’t dominate hitters, and the failure for him to produce positive growth in a myriad of measure last year despite his ERA certainly throws into question whether or not he will ever be able to take the next step. Don’t get me wrong, Jurrjens is a fine pitcher, one that the Braves, and his fantasy owners, certainly will be happy with – that is if they expect his ERA to be 3.60 and not 2.60. Don’t be surprised if Jurrjens fails to repeat his ratios from last season even if he pitches a lot of innings and wins a lot of games for the Braves in 2010.
By Ray Flowers
The FSWA winner of the Best Baseball Series of 2011, BaseballGuys.com is the only source you will need for your fantasy baseball knowledge. OK, you might need other sources, but BaseballGuys.com should be on your daily list of must reads for the insights an analysis it provides on the world of baseball.
The co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87: M-F at 5-8 PM EDT), Ray has spent years squirreled away studying the inner workings of the fantasy game to the detriment of his personal life. Specializing in baseball, football and hockey, some consider him an expert in all three. Ray's work can also be found as feature writer for: Fantasy Alarm, Rotoinfo, Rotowire and Sports Illustrated.
You can contact Ray through e-mail at fantasyfandom@yahoo(dot)com or on Twitter.
