Player Profile: Brett Anderson

If you talk to some folks in the fantasy baseball world they will tell you they think that Brett Anderson of the Athletics can be a top-25 starting pitcher (the A’s seem to think so as well as they named him their Opening Day starter). You don’t have to draft him that highly this season, his ADP in NFBC Drafts is barely inside the top-40, so he should be viewed as a prime target on draft day right (for those of you interested, The Oracle currently has Brett Anderson inside his top-50 in his 2013 Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide)? Let’s see here…

Anderson had a solid rookie season in 2009. After coming into the year as one of the top-10 prospects in baseball according to Baseball America he went 11-11 with a 4.06 ERA and 1.28 WHIP over 175.1 innings (he also punched out 150 batters). However, the injuries then began to strike. After making 30 starts as a rookie he totaled just 32 starts in 2010-11. Anderson was terrific in 19 starts in year two with a 2.80 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, but he made only 19 starts. In 2011 he lasted a mere 13 outings before he had to shut things down due to a wonky elbow that eventually required Tommy John surgery. Coming back from that injury in 2012 he tossed six games for the Athletics reminding everyone why there was so much interest in Anderson a few years ago (he went 4-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.03 WHIP). All told Anderson is 25-25 in his career with a 3.57 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Those numbers certainly don’t jump off the page at you at all, but they are solid numbers for a young hurler who has spent his brief career in the American League.

Let’s take a look at some of his other career numbers.

Anderson owns a career minor league number of 9.4 punchouts per nine innings. Wow is right. The only way that I could be more impressed was if he didn’t walk anyone. Viola. For his 54 game minor league career his walk rate is under two per nine leading to a dominating 4.98 K/BB ratio. Simply, you can’t help but have success with a nearly 5:1 K/BB ratio. In fact, you will likely be a borderline dominant talent if you can do that. Anderson hasn’t been quite that good at the big league level though. He’s still not walking anyone with a 2.19 per nine mark, but the K-rate has really shrunk down to less than seven per nine innings (only in his rookie season has that mark been seven – the last three year’s he’s posted marks of 6.01, 6.59 and 6.43 per nine). As a result he’s given back 40 percent of that K/BB ratio with the Athletics, though a 3.14 career mark is still darn impressive (for his career Felix Hernandez owns a 3.10 mark, Jered Weaver is at 3.17 mark and Jake Peavy at 3.20.).

Anderson’s other calling card at the big league level has been his impressive ground ball tendencies. Anderson has posted a ground ball rate of at least 50 percent in each of his four seasons, and last year the mark was a career best at 59.8 (his career rate is 54.0 percent). When you don’t beat yourself with the free pass, and you keep the ball on the ground, success is very likely to follow.

Anderson’s health is key. It’s one thing to have an injury here or there. It’s another thing to have suffered injury induced reduction in your innings pitched total for 3-straight years. At this point the good news is that Anderson has been deemed healthy after a setback in Spring Training, and it seems like he has a legit shot to return to the 30 start total of his rookie season. However, it would be wise to avoid getting too aggressive with Anderson. After all, he did throw just 35 innings last season for the A’s after throwing only 25.1 innings in the minors. Would the A’s allow Anderson to throw 175.1 innings in 2013 as he did back in 2009? If he did he would be adding more than 100 innings to his total from last season. Even if the A’s let him go for 175 innings he’s not likely to be allowed to reach 200 innings, and that does somewhat cap his value somewhat. It’s also a concern that he’s only been able to throw 120 big league innings in only one of his four seasons, and that certainly increases the risk. Still, he’s a very talented arm who induces ground balls with the best of them, and that should leave the floor pretty elevated with Anderson as long as he can take the ball every five days. He’s a solid 4th starter type to add to you mixed league squad though one that may have a bit less upside than others would lead you to believe given the health concerns and the lack of punchouts.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September13, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account in my never ending attempt to replace myself by explaining to everyone how I evaluate players thereby making myself obsolete.

Keeper for next season in 20th of 25 rounds, Jeff Samardzija or Brett Anderson?
– @Valen007

Very interesting question since both will represent tremendous values at that cost.

Anderson has dominated in four starts this season allowing a total of three runs (two earned) leading to a 0.69 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. Please tell me every one of you reading this understands that this is just one of those short runs pitchers with strong skills run into from time to time. Anderson is not the new Roy Halladay folks. After all he did have a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 ERA last season before injuring his elbow. What he is though, without question, is a very solid major league hurler. Take a look at his career numbers.

3.76 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 7.35 K/9, 2.68 K/BB

Wait a second, those aren’t Anderson’s numbers those are the numbers of a pitcher that I think profiles very similarly to Anderson in terms of their expected fantasy output – the Brewers’ Shaun Marcum. Here are Anderson’s career numbers.

3.47 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.91 K/9, 3.21 K/BB

Anderson should be a very solid option in 2013, but his skills, despite what he has been doing for the last month, are nowhere near elite, though I do love that 54 percent career ground ball rate which does set him up to be an arm that could have some impressive runs with his diving, darting pitches.

Samardzija was recently shut down after he threw as many innings this season as he had his previous four years at the big league level (he actually tossed five more innings this season). Samardzija finished his first full season as a starter on a high note throwing a complete game as he lowered his ERA to 3.81 and his WHIP to 1.22. Those ratios are a fair match for the career rates of Anderson, but Samardzija owns one skill that Anderson will never posses – he can strike out batters with the best of them. Over the last two seasons he’s struck out a batter per inning including 180 in 174.2 innings this season. That dominance resulted in a 9.27 K/9 mark which when coupled with a massive reduction in his walk rate allowed JS to post a 3.21 K/BB ratio – an exact match for the career rate of Anderson. That’s the key with Jeff. Is he the guy we’ve seen for most of his career as a reliever, the one who averaged 5.20 walks per nine, or is he the arm that stamped out the free passes as a starter averaging 2.89 per nine innings this year? If he can keep that walk rate down he should be on his way to continuing to post numbers that rival if not surpass his 2012 effort in coming seasons.

I’d frame the answer this way. Do you want a “safe” play or an “upside” play? Anderson is more likely to be the stable/solid play next year, especially since I’m not sold on the drastic walk reduction that Samardzija offered this year. The A’s also recently announced that Anderson will not be on an inning pitched count next year so he should be free to let her rip (the Athletics are not the Nationals). Samardzija is likely to produce a substantially higher amount of Ks, like an entire dominating reliever more, so that right arm of his shouldn’t be discounted one bit. Given the fact that neither is going to be your ace in 2013, I’d favor the power righty from Chicago.

With Adam Dunn down, who is the best option for the rest of the season: Mark Reynolds, Justin Morneau, Garrett Jones?
– @JohnnyCrashMLB

Dunn cannot get over that oblique issue he is dealing with as the White Sox try to hold off the Tigers for the AL Central title (they are leading by one game). Dunn is also sitting on the cusp of season season long milestones with 38 homers, 88 RBIs and 79 runs scored, oh and he has 194 Ks too. If you’re a Dunn owner you’ve been without your slugger for a week now, and that time on the shelf may be extended. So who do you target to add to your club?

Reynolds has been stroking it for a while now. The last three weeks he has gone deep nine times with 17 RBIs, 14 runs scored an a 1.157 OPS.  Don’t forget that he also brings some positional flexibility with his first and third base qualification. Taking things back a bit further, let’s go to the start of August, he’s gone deep 13 times with 27 RBIs, 24 runs scored an a .271 batting average over 36 games. We all know how streaky he can be, but right now the streaking is a good thing as he’s making it happen in the power categories while doing something odd – not hurting you in the batting average category.

Morneau may not be all the way back, but he’s close, and that’s great news for a guy who has been battling it for so long. One homer from returning to the 20 HR plateau, Justin is hitting .278 with 75 RBIs in 119 games for the Twins. He hasn’t had any success, like none, against lefties (.231-2-19 with a .575 OPS in 173 ABs), but he has mashed righties (.307-17-56 with a .952 OPS in 280 ABs). He’s also been on the top of his game since the All-Star break hitting .318 with eight homers and 37 RBIs in 54 games.

Jones, like Reynolds, also qualifies at two spots (1B and OF). Of course, this decision is more about the power bat that the players are wielding than it is about positional flexibility (more on that below). Jones has hit 23 homers, a career best, and is two runs (he has 62) and 11 RBIs (75) from tying his career bests. He’s also sporting a .283 batting average after failing to reach .250 in either of the past two seasons. Like Morneau he is a total waste against lefties (.210/.250/.339 in 62 ABs), and like Morneau and Reynolds he’s been very sharp of late. Over his last 39 games Jones has hit .316 with seven homers, 26 RBIs and 22 runs scored providing those that have been playing him with some near elite level hitting.

Honestly, there is no wrong answer here. In truth, all three men have actually been better fantasy performers in the second half of the season than Dunn who has hit .207 with 13 homers and 27 RBIs. At this point of the season there’s little chance that even a .300 hitter for the final 20 games is going to move the needle on your team batting average since you’ll have so many at-bats piled up on your squad (not to mention that you’ve been saddled with that .208 deadweight that is Dunn’s batting average this year). There’s also no real speed to speak of with this group either, so we can forget about steals. Morneau and Jones are pretty useless against lefties, so that dings them. Given that Jones qualifies at two spots he would be my selection over Morneau (you never know when you might need that flexibility so I’ll let it be the tipping point between those two). So it’s Jones versus Reynolds for me. Given that I’m  operating under the assumption that batting average isn’t a real concern here I’d roster Reynolds and hope his power/run producing ways continue to impress the final couple of weeks of 2012 (over at Fleaflicker Reynolds isn’t owned in as many leagues as I would think he would be).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 at 7 PM EDT, Monday through Thursday, and Friday’s from 9-12 PM EDT.

Mailbag: August30, 2012

Each week I’ll be answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Would you drop Drew Stubbs for Trevor Plouffe? It’s almost playoff time, and Stubbs can get ice cold as he is now.
– @joe_joe_a_go_go

Before we go bashing Stubbs, let’s not overlook what Plouffe has done, or better yet not done, of late.

Plouffe has had quite a season. In June he went deep 11 times. He also hit 14 homers in a 29 game stretch at one point. Still, he’s not exactly been Mr. Consistent. He went deep Wednesday night, his first homer since July 3rd, a span of 28 games. Plouffe also hasn’t stolen a single base this season. Plouffe is hitting .242, .017 points below the league average. Plouffe has a .312 OBP, nine points below the league average. Plouffe is also hitting .169 with a .468 OPS in August. So before we go and canonize Plouffe, let’s make sure we realize (A) who he actually is and (B) that he has been dreadful for the last month.

Stubbs hasn’t been much better of late as there is no disputing that fact as he too hasn’t reached the Mendoza Line in August. Still, he has a slightly better batting average (.187) and OPS (.486) than Plouffe. He also has the same amount of homers, one, has scored three times as many runs (14 to five), and has killed Plouffe, destroyed him, with those massively relevant six steals.

Stubbs certainly has his faults, but the only way I would drop him in favor of Plouffe was if I desperately needed help at third or shortstop, but even then I’d be reluctant to drop Stubbs since his speed would likely make more of a difference over the final month than the power potential of Plouffe.

Tommy Hanson worth owning anymore?
– @thatkidslim

Hanson has been battling shoulder woes all year. His fastball velocity is down two mph, and at times he has had had a lot of trouble throwing strikes (his walk rate per nine is up nearly three quarters of a point from his career average at 2.88). He’s still striking out his share of batters though, his 8.00 K/9 mark is strong, but after two years with a K/BB ratio over 3.00 the mark is down a full point this year to 2.07, well below the league average (2.47). When you add into that diminished ratio a league average GB/FB (1.04), a slightly elevated HR/9 (1.27) and a league average 19.8 percent line drive rate, you get basically a league average pitcher. Unfortunately, it’s a bit worse than that. He does have 12 victories, but those ratios aren’t helping anyone (4.40 ERA, 1.47 WHIP). He’s also been pretty darn bad over his last six outings with a 6.82 ERA and 2.01 WHIP.

I don’t know the size of your league, or who you would replace him with, but it’s certainly worth investigating moving on, potentially for one of the two pitchers I’m about to discus…

Who is the better add Chris Tillman or Brett Anderson?
– @Derrickmartin

Tillman has been a star for the Orioles. In eight of 10 outings this season he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs, and if you remove those two rough outings his ERA would be 2.44 and his WHIP 1.01. Still, history says you should be very wary of Tillman. Over his first three seasons with the Orioles, 2009-11, he made 36 starts. Tillman went 7-15 with a 5.58 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, a 5.78 K/9 an a 1.45 K/BB ratio. Those are awful numbers. Now it’s not that he is without talent, and most around baseball have been surprised that he had been unable to make the necessary adjustments. Has he made those adjustments this season? To this point the answer is an emphatic yes. His K/9 rate is up to 7.29, his walk rate at a career best, and the resulting 2.47 K/BB ratio is a massive step forward. At the same time it’s a league average number, as is his K/9 and his GB/FB (1.03). He’s also working with a career worst line drive rate (23.0 percent) that has somehow led to a career best .254 BABIP (career .294). His 3.26 ERA really should be a run higher, and given his track record in the bigs, it’s hard to think he will be able to keep up his current pace.

Anderson has been elite since returning from Tommy John Surgery. In two starts he’s won two games while allowing one run for the Athletics. Talk about hitting the ground running. Just like with Tillman, there’s no way the current trend will continue with Anderson. The difference between the two is twofold. (1) Anderson has had more success in the big leagues. (2) He’s a more highly skilled pitcher. Anderson has made 64 starts in the big leagues resulting in a 3.55 ERA and 1.24 WHIP. Tillman has only pitched at that level for two months. Anderson also sports a 3.16 K/BB ratio for his career, which when coupled with his 1.84 GB/FB ratio marks Anderson as an arm every fantasy squad would want to own – provided his arm was healthy.

I’d go with Anderson. Tillman has the advantage in that he’s been healthy all year and isn’t coming back from elbow surgery, but Anderson is the more highly skilled and the more effective hurler. Just hope the A’s don’t limit his workload because he’s just a year removed from the surgery.

Saves aren’t an issue for me, but K/9 is. Should I drop Kenley Jansen or wait and see?
– @LKrukowski

Jansen has had a recurrence of his heart issue, one that kept him out of action for a month last season. The Dodgers haven’t said that they expect Jansen to miss a month this time, but obviously one has to question whether or not Jansen will be able to return this season as he’s been termed to be out “indefinitely.” Who will the Dodgers turn to in the 9th inning in the meantime? Ronald Belisario converted the Dodgers last save chance, and he has been great this year with a 2.84 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 47 Ks in 50.2 innings. On the flip side he has all of three saves in his career. He’s likely the lead horse in the race right now though. Brandon League, who had 37 saves last season for the Mariners, could also be in the mix. Though he has struggled since being dealt to the Dodgers with a 6.00 ERA and 1.56 WHIP in 11 outings, he claims to have fixed a mechanical issue and has thrown 4-straight scoreless outings. The club could always recall Javy Guerra who has 29 saves for the Dodgers since the start of last season.

Should you hold on to Jansen? All depends on who you can add and where you are currently sitting in the standings. I will say that, given the uncertainty of his prognosis, that I would be reluctant to drop Jansen just yet. It’s also tough to suggest dropping a man who has 223 Ks in 137.1 innings leading to a 14.61 career K/9 mark which just so happens to be the second best mark in the history of the game for any pitcher who has tossed at least 125 innings in his career (Craig Kimbrel leads the way with a 15.63 mark).

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 7-10 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 21: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DailyJoust?

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Brett Anderson (+171K up to $392,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
The A’s lefty has returned from Tommy John Surgery with flying colors mind you. In his first outing against the Twins he tossed one run ball over seven innings as he walked none and struck out six. A strong pitcher through 63 career starts, Anderson owns a 3.62 ERA and 1.25 WHIP for his career. Are those numbers he could match this year? It’s certainly possible, but remember it’s not always a linear path to success for guys returning from Tommy J. Think of Adam Wainwright. His April was dreadful, a 7.32 ERA and 1.47 WHGIP over four starts before he rebounded (for the season Waino has a 3.63 ERA and 1.18 WHIP through 26 starts). Anderson is well worth the add in 15 team mixed leagues, but those in 10/12 team leagues would be wise not to count on him too heavily until 2013.

Chris Iannetta (+35, $88K)
Three of the last four years in Colorado Iannetta hit at least 14 homers with 55 RBIs (the year he didn’t reach those marks he had only 188 at-bats in an injury shortened 2010). There was hope that Iannetta would get to 350 at-bats for the first time in his career this season, maybe even well into the 400′s in his new home in Anaheim, but injuries conspired against him. To this point he’s had only 134 at-bats and that has caused him to become an afterthought in two catcher mixed leagues. However, it might be time to start paying attention again. Over 20 games in August Chris has hit .286 with three homers, a .361 OBP an a .821 OPS, levels that he could maintain the rest of the way (well, maybe not the batting average, but it shouldn’t dip much below the league average).

Kyle Kendrick (+101, $356K)
The definition of average, there’s nothing that stands out with Kendrick. His K/BB ratio of 6.41 is a batter below the league average and his 3.13 BB/9 is league average. He allows 0.99 homers per nine. League average yet again. His 1.15 GB/FB is league average. Ditto his ratios – a 4.12 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. I wasn’t kidding when I said nothing stands out. So why mention him? Because it’s all working for him right now. Over his last three outings he has allowed a total of two runs while picking up three victories for the Phillies. He’s also walked a total of three batters while striking out 16. I’m not suggesting you completely buy into what is happening right now, it’s just not who Kyle is, but if you need a boost on the hill few that might be available are likely to be on a better roll (he’s owned in less than 10 percent of Fleaflicker leagues).

Angel Pagan (+30, $119K)
Pagan is 0-for-8 the lat two games but he’s still be flat out killing it of late. Over the previous eight games he produced 18 hits to push his average up from .280 to .290. In fact, he’s hit .301 over his last 40 games and .347 in August (25 contests). He’s not a power bat, he has only seven homers and 48 RBIs, but he plays every day, scores runs (69) and certainly has the speed to swipe a bag (21 on the year).

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Joe Blanton (-149, $206K)
He should be much better than he is, at least in terms of the overall results. On the year he has a 7.76 K/9 mark, the best of his career, and his 1.57 BB/9 mark would tied his career best. As a result he has an elite 4.93 K/BB ratio that is virtually double his career 2.55 mark. The main issue has been the home run, something that often plagues him. Currently his HR/9 is a career worst 1.52, the third time it looks like he will have a mark of 1.38 or greater in the past four years (career 1.08). If he suddenly goes on a run of homerless ball to bring that number back to normal levels he just might be someone to turn to. As it is he’s looked awful with the Dodgers going 0-3 with a 7.71 ERA and 1.76 WHIP over four starts.

A.J. Burnett (-92, $359K)
He has 15 wins an only four loses with a 3.63 ERA and 1.25 WHIP on the year. That’s as good as anyone could have hoped for after his last two years in New York that led to an ERA of 5.20 and a WHIP of nearly 1.50. However, things have taken a downturn for A.J. recently. Over his last three started he’s given up four homers, he’s walked eight batters, and he’s allowed 14 earned runs to add nearly a half run to his ERA. It’s tough to turn away from Burnett, his total of 151.1 innings shouldn’t be wearing him down, but like James McDonald before him maybe we’re just seeing a natural correction.

Matt Joyce (-20, $55K)
Since he was beset my injuries Joyce has been a shell of his former self. Over his last 32 games he has hit just .216 with a mere three homers. His OBP in that time is .295 which is only palatable when one glances over to his SLG and sees a number that should be his OBP (.345). At this point, even if you’re in a 15 team mixed with five starting outfielders it’s nearly impossible to think that you don’t have a better option for a fifth outfielder.

Jason Kubel (-21, $57K)
I warned you to be careful almost exactly a month ago in my July 23rd Column.

“There’s zero chance he sustains his line drive rate (it’s 24 percent)”
His line drive rate has dipped to 22.8 percent.

“There’s zero chance he sustains his HR/F ratio (it’s 20 percent)”
His HR/F ratio is down to 19.5 percent.

“He’s striking out more than ever before.”
After never having a K-rate above 21.4 percent that mark has skyrocketed to 26.4 percent.

“…we know all good things must come to an end, right?”
Kubel has hit .160 with a .549 OPS in August.

He’s only two homers from tying his career best of 28, and with 14 RBIs he’ll have the second best total of his career (best is 103, second best 92), and his .267 batting average is only four points below his career average of .271. The regression was always likely to occur.

DAILY JOUST CONTESTS

I’ve spent this article talking about baseball, which obviously isn’t at all odd given that this is BaseballGuys.com, but I’ve got a way that you can, in addition to playing fantasy baseball, also play some fantasy football. How can you do that? You can head over to DailyJoust and sign up for any of the myriad of games they have to offer. For those of you who are hardcore baseball fans like me they are still running daily fantasy games for you, well, daily. For those of you who are read to take on the gridiron, there are three pretty exciting games they have to offer. You can find a report on each at the following links (scroll down to the bottom of the articles for the explanations).

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By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat – Tim Heaney of KFFL.com

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray interviewed one of the best in the business Tim Heaney from KFFL.com. They will discuss Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Billy Hamilton, Jed Gyorko and other Sept call ups.

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Around the Horn: August22, 2012

(1) John Axford reclaims closer’s role for Brewers.

(2) Cameron Maybin finally heating up at the dish.

(3) Tim Lincecum shuts down Dodgers. Starting to look like Timmy of old?

(4) Garrett Jones streaking for Pirates. Streaking

(5) David Cooper – someone to keep an eye on in AL-only leagues.

(6) Nate McLouth – someone to keep an eye on in AL-only leagues.

(7) Brett Anderson returns, looks sharp for Athletics.

By Ray Flowers

2011 Pitching Review: Starters – Misses

In my last column I broke down my greatest “hits” of starting pitchers, those that I identified and suggested you add to your stable of hurlers for the 2011 season who succeeded. Today I’ll ding myself by pointing out the hurlers that failed to deliver based on my personal expectations.

For the “hits” see PART I.

NOTE: Please remember that while some of these “calls” seem obvious, they really weren’t back in March of 2011.

MISSES

Josh Johnson (#8): Shoulder woes limited Johnson to just nine starts and 60.1 innings in 2011. He was spectacular when on the hill with a 1.64 ERA and 0.98 WHIP, not to mention 56 Ks in 60.1 innings, but his future is cloudy as he simply cannot be counted on to take the hill every five games.

Roy Oswalt (#13): Back woes limited him to his worst season, possibly ever. He won only nine games against 10 loses, lasted just 139 innings (his lowest total since 2003), and saw his K/9 dip to 6.02 (the worst mark of his career). He wasn’t horrible with a 3.69 ERA and 1.34 WHIP, but he was drafted to be a strong #2 hurler, not a depth play.

Chad Billingsley (#18): It’s time to give up on him becoming an elite pitcher, but he should still be better than he was this season. Chad produced a five year low with 11 victories, a career worst 4.21 ERA, a 5-year worst in K/9 (7.28) and a 5-year high in BB/9 (4.02). Simply put, he wasn’t very good, but he’s still only 27 years old and did toss 188 innings, his fourth straight year hitting that mark.

Francisco Liriano (#23): He will never be the pitcher he was before he blew his arm out, so put that thought out of your head as he’s lost three mph off his fastball since his heyday. As a result, his K/9 fell a batter and a half from his career rate, down to 7.50 per nine, and he was simply dreadful at throwing strikes walking 5.02 batters per nine innings. That’s just shameful.

Ryan Dempster (#25): The good – he threw more than 200 innings with at least 170 K’s for a fourth straight season. The bad – his ERA was awful at 4.80 and his WHIP wasn’t much better at 1.45. A lot of that has to do with his horrible start to the year, though his 3.70 xFIP was actually right in line with his previous three seasons (3.69, 3.76 and 3.74). He wasn’t as bad as he appeared to be.

Ricky Nolasco (#29): I give up. The guy has tantalizing skills including 4-straight years with a K/BB ratio of at least 3.36, and his xFIP keeps saying that his ERA should be well below where it always is (5.06, 4.51 and 4.67 the last three years). I’m still gonna draft him late in 2012, but only at a point where I know he’ll give me value versus at a level that I hope he will be able to live up to.

Brett Anderson (#30): Couldn’t help this one as there was no way to predict that he would need Tommy John surgery in July. He ended the year 3-6 with a 4.00 ERA and 1.33 WHIP over 13 starts.

Jonathan Sanchez (#31): He still owns hellacious stuff, see his 9.06 K/9 mark, but he rarely seems to know where it is going (see his ghastly 5.86 BB/9 mark). It’s as simple as this; until he starts throwing strikes he’s simply not someone that you can trust, at all.

John Lackey (#42): Seems like everything that could go wrong with the Boston righty did in 2011. He won 12 games, his 9th straight season of double-digits, but he threw a nine year low of 160 innings. The Sox may not have been complaining though given his 6.41 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Amazingly, his K/9 has gone down each of the last six years while his BB/9 has gone up each of the last four.

Ian Kennedy (#55): No one predicted this effort. I’ll tip my hat to the guy as he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 198 Ks. I don’t think he has a chance in hell of repeating that effort, but he was dynamite in 2011.

Jake Peavy (#56): I thought putting him in the second half of the top-100 was being fair. Turns out, it wasn’t. Peavy only lasted 111.2 innings, posted an abysmal 4.92 ERA, and he has serious questions about whether or not he will ever be able to even take the ball 30 times a year again.

Michael Pineda (#95): Here is my quote, and my reasoning as to why he was so low in my original rankings. “I’d be surprised if he was up before June, but he will be a strikeout force when the Mariners finally turn to him.” I totally missed the time line which is why my ranking of him was so off.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 7, 2011

Photo by Stefanie Seskin

You asked on the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account, so here are my answers.

Ricky Romero – look to sell high or does he have the stuff to pitch like this all year? Not a keeper league – @brianmck558

I’m always one for selling high as it’s one of the best ways going to come out ahead in the long run. Question though – how can you sell high on a guy after one start? I don’t understand why everyone is freaking out this year. It seems like everyone playing fantasy baseball is ready to change their thoughts on every player on the diamond after a weeks worth of games. Wasn’t it just 10 days ago that we were all happy with our teams? Please give Around the Horn – Slow Starts a listen to help bring you down from the ledge.

As for Romero, like I said, I don’t know how one start will change his outlook in anyone’s eyes. He is what we thought he was. That is a stable, young hurler with a whole lot to like. In his second full season last year Romero upped his K/9 mark to 7.46, dropped his BB/9 mark to 3.51 and upped his GB/FB rate to 2.08. Add all of that together and you have a pitcher, who if anything, may have been slightly undervalued on draft day 2011.

Matt Thornton still safe for CWS? If not, whose the next in line? Chris Sale? – @atlnagel

Here we go again. Unfortunately some people will worry about their relievers now that we’ve seen the Angels totally panic with their 9th inning role (see Diamond Musings). Matt Thornton will be fine and he will hold on to the 9th inning role all year long in my opinion. For those of you who have forgotten, here is how Thornton ranks amongst all big league pitchers who have thrown 200-innings the past three years.

2nd in base runners per nine innings (9.58)
Fourth in K/9 (10.91)
Sixth in ERA (2.70)
Ninth K/BB (4.03)

I’ve said it before, but I truly think he is the best left-handed reliever in baseball, and the numbers certainly seem to support that position.

AL-only league. Should I drop Mark Buehrle for Jake Arrieta? – @canebluedevil

One of the most consist hurlers in the game, Buehrle had a rough spring and has followed that up with two less than exciting outings to start the year. Still, you know what you are going to get with him. (1) You’ll get at least 10 wins. He’s done that for 10-straight year. (2) You’ll get lots of innings as he has thrown at least 200-innings in each of the last 10 years. Moreover, Buehrle is the only pitcher in baseball who has hit both of those marks each of the past 10 years. (3) You’ll get a pitcher who is fairly certain not to hurt you in ERA (his mark has been 4.00 three of the past four years). There is no upside, but there would appear to be little downside.

Arrieta is a wild card. What happens when/if Justin Duchscherer and Brain Matusz return to action – will Arrieta hold on to his starting spot? Arrieta throws hard but his control isn’t terrific (his BB/9 rate if we combine his work at Triple-A and the majors last year was 4.26), and that doesn’t help when your off-speed stuff grades out as nothing more than average. He’s young and would seem to have the brighter future than Buehrle, but for 2011 I think the easy call is to go with the veteran lefty from Chicago.

Albert Pujols and Brett Anderson for J.P. Arencibia, Carl Crawford and Chris Carpenter. Who gains? – @faizalkhamisa

Arencebia is a wild card. Early reports suggest that he will start three of five games. Will that be enough to generate anything other than bottom level 2nd catcher value? Probably not. Carpenter is a stud, but is his outlook that much better than that of Anderson for 2011? Check out the numbers for the last two years.

Anderson: 7.04 K/9, 2.01 BB/9, 3.36 K/BB, 3.57 ERA, 1.25 WHIP
Carpenter: 6.80 K/9, 2.13 BB/9, 3.20 K/BB, 2.78 ERA, 1.10 WHIP

A lot closer than you thought, isn’t it?

Pujols is so good and so phenomenally consistent that I’d prefer the Pujols/Anderson side of the deal, and you know that pains me to say since I’m such a big supporter of Carl Crawford.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: June 4, 2010

(1) Grady Sizemore done for the year – microfracture knee surgery.

(2) Carlos Beltran has success in extended spring game.

(3) No surgery for Brett Anderson?

(4) Vladimir Guerrero returns from injured eye.

(5) Alex Gordon hitting well, but won’t be back soon with Royals.

(6) Gary Matthews Jr. was designated. Still owned nearly $20 million on current deal.

(7) Pat Burrell with Giants, John Bowker demoted. For more make sure you read my most recent Five Questions article which also talks about Gordon Beckham losing playing time, and Matt Wieters struggles.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: April28, 2010

(1) Kurt Suzuki continues to miss time with sore side. Jake Fox nearing catcher eligibility.

(2) Brett Anderson’s elbow flexor strain is really a muscle strain.

(3) Blown saves everywhere – Octavio Dotel, Trevor Hoffman, Ryan Madson.

(4) Frank Francisco closing gap on Neftali Feliz?

(5) Matt Capps first to 10 saves.

(6) Justin Morneau could miss rest of the week with back issue.

(7) The world of numbers and hitting broken down at By The Numbers – Hitters including the lack of power from Joe Mauer.

By Ray Flowers