Player Profile: Brett Lawrie

As I noted in my recent review of the third base position, expectations for Brett Lawrie coming into the season were astronomically high (one expert who I greatly respect had him inside his top-30 overall if I’m not mistaken). I told everyone to keep pumping the breaks with Lawrie, I had him at 12th at the third base position, which allowed me to appreciate what he was able to accomplish in 2012 with a clear head. For those of you that drank the Kool-Aid with Lawrie an are now panicked about drafting him in 2013 keep reading because I think I can make the case that Lawrie is a strong option to turn to in the coming season, even if he let you down in the recently completed campaign.

Some factoids.

Lawrie had a better batting average than Alex Rodriguez (.273 to .272).
Lawrie homer more homers than Martin Prado (11 to 10).
Lawrie had more runs scored than David Freese (73 to 70).
Lawrie had the same steal total as Edwin Encarnacion (13).

Is that really that bad a season, for a guy who had never played a full season in the bigs before?

Lawrie was also hurt which limited him to 125 games played. If we extrapolate out his effort to lets say 150 games, his fantasy line would end up looking like this: .273-13-58-88-16. I know there is nothing outstanding there, but do you know how many players reached all five numbers in 2012? If I’m not mistaken the answer is nine – Braun, McCutchen, Trout, Headley, Adam Jones, Justin Upton,Carlos Gonzalez, Shin-Soo Choo and Rios. So again I ask, was Lawrie really that bad?

Lawrie had a K-rate of 16 percent which is a fine number in this day and age of free swinging, but his walk rate regressed causing his BB/K mark to dip to 0.38, slightly below the league average. A few more walks would certainly help.

Lawrie posted a league average 20 percent line drive rate, a 3.1 percent improvement over his rookie effort, though the results didn’t show up in the hit column since his BABIP actually fell .007 points from his rookie season. Still, 20 and .311 have the look of a solid combo supported by the other.

Much like the piece on Eric Hosmer, Lawrie saw a drastic reduction in his fly ball rate in his second season in the bigs with Lawrie’s fall being much more severe. After a 45 percent fly ball rate that number dipped to 30 percent in 2012, well below the big league average of about 36 percent. It’s hard to be a home run hitter, 20 is a big total actually, if you hit 50 percent of your batted balls into the ground. Power often develops as players age, and it’s fair to posit that his less than 100 percent physical situation last year may have also contributed to Lawrie’s power dip (Brett’s HR/F ratio fell from 17 to nine percent leading to an 11.4 percent mark for his career, something that looks about right).

So what does Lawrie need to do to be a fantasy force in 2013? Obviously he needs to stay healthy. Second, he’ll need to reign in, ever so slightly, that passion. It’s a long season an if you’re flipping out every time you don’t agree with a ball/strike call, you are never going to make it through the season. On the field, Lawrie needs to impart a bit more lift on the ball. It would also help if he were to learn the importance of patience and how taking a walk isn’t an affront to a guy’s masculinity. Making sure you get “your pitch,” versus a pitch you can hit, is the key to many players moving from solid to all-star levels (just cause you can hit a pitch doesn’t mean you should hit that pitch).

Given his perceived failures in his first full season, a position that I have noted really isn’t an accurate depiction of what happened on the field, Lawrie could slide a bit on draft day. If that is the case you shouldn’t be overly concerned if Lawrie ends up as your starter at the hot corner. In fact, you might be wise to target just such a scenario for your fantasy club in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2012 Positional Review – Third Base

Now that the 2012 season is over, it’s time to review how my predictions went for each position in fantasy baseball. To that end, I will review my top-10 at each position and give a brief rundown on how each of the ten performed. I’ll also list which player was a “Hit” (someone who lived up to expectations) as well as a “Miss” (the player who simply failed to impress).

Note: All of these rankings are taken from the 2012 BASEBALLGUYS DRAFT GUIDE

For more on the Draft Guide you can click on the link.

For an update on what you missed in the Draft Guide, click on the link.

CATCHERS

FIRST BASE

SECOND BASE

2012 THIRD BASE Top-10

1 Evan Longoria
2 Jose Bautista
3 Ryan Zimmerman
4 Kevin Youkilis
5 Aramis Ramirez
6 David Wright
7 Adrian Beltre
8 Pablo Sandoval
9 Alex Rodriguez
10 Michael Young

Longoria performed as expected when on the field hitting .289 with 17 homers and 55 RBIs in just 74 games. Of course, it was just 74 games as a leg issue limited him for a huge portion of the year. One of those first round selections that didn’t live up to his draft day cost.

Bautista, just like Longoria, was exactly what was expected when on the field as he blasted 27 homers with 65 RBIs and 64 runs scored in a mere 92 games. Of course, his average fell back to the doldrums (.241) as I always thought it would. For 2013 he will only qualify in the outfield.

Zimmerman hit. 224 in April and had just two homers on June 1st. Awful right? Despite that start, in the end it was a “normal” Ryan Zimmerman season, i.e., a damn good one. When it was all said and done he hit .282 with 25 homers, 95 RBIs and 93 runs scored. Damn impressive considering the start he had.

Youkilis played for both Sox this year, and he actually wasn’t all that bad in Chicago as he hit 15 long balls with 46 RBIs and 47 runs scored in just 80 games played. That’s 30-90-90 in a full season folks. Too bad he hit .233 with the Red Sox and .236 with the Whites.

Ramirez is always taken later on draft day than he should be. He went out in his first year in Milwaukee and hit .300 with 27 homers, 105 RBIs and 92 runs scored (not to mention a career best 50 doubles). Hell, he even stole nine bases. Once again he was a rock of offensive production from the hot corner.

Wright hit only .258 with a .750 OPS in the second half. That’s terrible. Still, how can you turn away from a guy who hit .306 with 21 homers, 93 RBIs, 91 runs and 15 steals? Rumors of him being washed up simply weren’t remotely accurate.

Beltre had the second best season of his career hitting .321 with 36 bombds, 102 ribbies and 95 runs scored. His owners won’t forget his mad dash to the finish either as he hit .345 with 11 homers over his last 29 games.

Sandoval struggled with yet another hammate bone issue that required surgery, and he continued to gain weight at an alarming rate. He hit .283 with 63 RBIs in just 396 at-bats, but there are a ton of reasons why Sandoval shouldn’t be drafted too highly next season. Get it, a “ton” of reasons?

Rodriguez had hit 30 homers with 100 RBIs each year from from 1998-2010, a major league record 13-straight seasons. Last year he slumped to 16-62 in 99 games, and this year he fell even further with 18 homers and 57 RBIs in 122 contests. At least he stole 13 bases to give him a tiny bit of value. OK, I’m stretching.

Young had a solid end to the year hitting .313 over his final 31 games, but that still left his season long average at .277, his first sdeason under .280 since 2002. He also failed to reach double-digit homers for the first time in five years, and his 67 runs batted in were also his lowest mark since 2002. For a player who is 36 years old it’s fair to wonder just how much Young will be able to “bounce back” in 2013.

Hit: Aramis Ramirez (#5), Brett Lawrie (#12)
I list Lawrie because I believe I had him lower than any other source I saw this season (I know of a couple of websites that listed him as a top-30 overall player this season). Lawrie had a solid effort hitting .273 with 11 homers, 48 RBIs, 73 RBIs and 13 steals, but based upon most people’s expectations that effort was viewed as a monumental failire. It should not have been.

Miss: Kevin Youkilis
Michael Young wasn’t too far behind either.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: July5, 2012

Each week I’ll be  answer some of the questions I’ve received at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

My Pablo Sandoval and Desmond Jennings for Joey Votto? Have Brett Lawrie at 3B so Panda sits on my bench or in utility spot.
– @Youksbeard

All of this hullabaloo over Sandoval being named the starter over David Wright for the All-Star Game has obscured the fact that Sandoval is performing very well. Yes he’s only been on the field for 47 games, but if we push things out to 150, at his current pace, we’d be looking at a guy hitting .313 with 22 homers and 85 RBIs (those numbers are nearly identical to his career marks per 162 games: .308-23-87). Those aren’t stupendous numbers, but they are pretty darn good, aren’t they? If you’re “stuck” with that as your utility option many will wish they could be you.

Jennings was a victim of his own hype. As I stated to everyone that would listen all offseason, Jennings wasn’t going to be a 25 homer hitter this season, and those who thought he was a 20/40 option were always going to be disappointed. He’s stolen 15 bags in 59 games including three in his last four games, so apparently his knee is finally healthy. However he’s hitting .231 as his walk rate has gone down from his rookie season leading to a below league average 0.40 BB/K mark. He’s also be smart to hit a few more balls on the ground to take advantage of his speed. The talent is still here for a huge second half, but there’s not a lot going on right now to suggest he’s going to realize that potential in the second half this season.

Votto — do I need to waste time/space saying he is elite? As long as his body holds up there is little reason to think that he won’t end the year the way he was drafted – as a top-10 overall performer.

You have Lawrie at third so you don’t have to have Pablo around, but as I mentioned, Pablo is still a great utility option. Jennings is a borderline elite talent, even if his production has been far from that level this year. Most people will tell you that getting the best player in the deal often means you win. In this case here is my answer – you’re never going to be wrong adding Votto to your club, but if you’re team is lacking depth holding on to Pablo and Desmond might still end up being the best move.

Anibal Sanchez dropable in 12 team roto? Dude has been killin me for over month.
– @lmfriedrich

On June 9th, less than a month ago, Sanchez had a 3.19 ERA. Now that mark stands exactly one run higher at 4.19. Obviously he’s had a brutal stretch (honestly it’s even worse as his ERA was 2.56 on June 4th). So what should be done with a guy who has a 7.34 ERA and 1.69 ERA over his last six starts? Do you drop him in a 12 team league? The answer comes down to who is available to add. If you’re in a league where people have itchy trigger fingers maybe there are guys like a returning to health Derek Holland or an improving Ubaldo Jimenez on the wire, an in that case you could consider moving on from Sanchez. Personally, I’m stubborn. If my pitching wasn’t a mess, if I could afford to give him some time, I’d bench Anibal and give him a few more starts to see if he can right the ship. What’s done is done, there’s no going back now. Still, we’re talking about a guy who some rather impressive numbers overall this season including a 8.20 K/9 mark, a 2.97 K/BB ratio and a 1.46 GB/FB rate. Chances are pretty good that if he holds on to all three of those numbers for the duration of the year that he’s going to have a good deal of success in the second half.

I don’t need a 2B but should I drop Carlos Quentin for Alexi Amarista? Quentin is tickin me off.
– @BigDaddyLowery

Amarista has been killing it the past two weeks hitting .424 with four homers and 15 RBIs (that includes all four homers, and 13 of those RBIs, in his last seven games). Point blank, he’s one of the hottest hitters in the game. Still, let’s not go overboard here. Amarista is 5’8” and weighs about a buck-fifty. He’s no power hitter. Just look at his minor league totals by year.

2008: 2 HR, 21 RBI
2009: 4 HR, 49 RBI
2010: 5 HR, 68 RBI
2011: 4 HR, 55 RBI

He does have a .312 minor league average, and he owns some speed, but this is a guy at this point that profiles as an NL-only option, and not a mixed league force. If you don’t need a second baseman, he’s not someone you should be picking up to start in your utility spot (over at Fleaflicker people seem to agree).

Quentin was insanely hot when he returned from his knee issue hitting five homers with nine RBIs in his first six games. Everyone thought he was Babe Ruth. Over his last 14 games he has one homer and three RBIs. Now everyone thinks he is Willie Bloomquist. He is neither player of course, and this brings up the shortsightedness that so many people have in the fantasy game (Bloomquist by the way is hitting .333 over his last 78 at-bats). Quentin is hitting .289 this season which is .035 points better than his career mark. Quentin has a .430 OBP which is .080 points better than his career rate. Quentin has a .577 SLG which is .083 points better than his career rate. Taken in total, Quentin is working on a 29 game pace that would equate to 35 homers, 75 RBIs and a 1.007 OPS over the course of a full season. Are you really going to complain about that? Of course you wouldn’t.

Baseball is a long season. If you don’t have the patience to wait out players slumps you’ll likely miss the good that they have to offer. So next time you think about dropping a guy who has had a rough three weeks for someone who’s name you didn’t even know two weeks ago because that unknown player has been hot take a deep breath, logically analyze the situation, and make sure you aren’t making a snap decision that will cost you later.

Yasmani Grandal or  J.P. Arencebia who I have held into him begrudgingly last two months in a 16 team points league?
– @lilnas2000

Grandal has burst on the scene swatting four homers in just 20 at-bats for the Padres. A borderline elite prospect at the catcher’s position, he’s already flashed the plus power he possesses. However, he’s yet to translate that pop into consistent power production in the minors, and Petco isn’t likely to do him any favors. Also, let’s not forget that the Padres still have Nick Hundley and his 3-year deal trying to find his swing in the minors, so it isn’t likely that he’s going to spend a tremendous amount of time down on the farm if he starts hitting.

As for JPA, what were you expecting? Just like the case with Quentin above, Arencebia has his strengths and his faults. Just like Quentin he has long stretches of ineffectiveness. Just like Quentin he’s a power bat and the results often come in bunches. Sure J.P. hit a mere .189 with eight RBIs in June, but let’s take that holistic approach again. JPA has 239 at-bats right now. If we give him 443, the same total as last season, what do we get?

2011: .219-23-78-47
2012: .222-20-70-54 (pace)

That’s right. He’s on pace to pretty much replicate his production from last season, so is being disappointed in his production really fair?

I’d stick with Arencebia, though if you are worried about the batting average, taking a shot on Grandal is fine as well since the duo profiles as similarly productive fantasy options the rest of the way.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

The Fantasy Beat: Week 1 & Beyond

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray discuss cheap draft day hitters that are off to a great start on the young season. They will tell you what which of these guys to believe in, and which guys to wait on.

J.D. Martinez, Raul Ibanez, Jordan Schafer, David Freese, Omar Infante, Zack Cozart and Brett Lawrie (who has stunk so far, though it’s still early of course).

Listen to the Audio.

Player Profile: Henderson Alvarez

What do you do when your called out? Do you shrink into a corner? Do you pick up your machete and start slashing? Do you ignore it and pull back on a Pilsner? My weapon of choice is the written word, luckily for Tim Heaney of KFFL.com.

(Tim an I go way back, so take what your about to read in the right vein. I’m just playing things up to make it look like Tim is a jerk-face. In truth, he’s one of the nicer guys around).

So what is this battle about that I speak of? Last week I tweeted that Henderson Alvarez had “no chance” of being a top-75 SP in 2012. Tim caught wind of this tweet, and offered a very reasonable rebuttal at KFFL.com.

“He’s a Scott Baker, Ricky Nolasco type – moderate K/9, pristine BB/9 – who’s much cheaper and offers similar upside, if not more for his relative cost.”

I’ll give Tim credit as he threw back in my face two arms that I always talk up each year, an always believe in. If Alvarez really is a pitching on par with those other two then I would be wrong to dismiss Alvarez as a potential top-75 arm. I hate admit when someone might have the drop on me. My only hope is that Alvarez isn’t the type of arm that is on par with those others. Let’s see…

Tim stated that the sample size with Alvarez is small – only 10 starts last year with the Blue Jays. That is always one of the bigger issues for me. In a general sense, I’m a big believer in the ‘I’ve seen him do it before so I feel fairly certain he could do it again.’ The result of that mindset is that I’m often much lower on rookies than many others are. I’m not stupid enough to state that guys like Brett Lawrie and Matt Moore can’t possibly be good because they haven’t played a full big league season, that would be completely foolish. However, I’m of the opinion that it’s tough to pass on a guy like Aramis Ramirez or Matt Garza in favor of youngsters that have yet to cut their teeth at the big league level. If I’m reluctant to go all in on elite talent then it’s not a leap at all to understand why I’d be less than thrilled to push Alvarez above proven big league talent.

Tim also points out another issue that apparently concerns me a bit more than it does him – Alvarez skipped Triple-A. Moreover, dude has all of 88 innings above A-ball. I don’t like that at all. Many pitchers need at least 500 innings of minor league innings to truly get everything under control an Alvarez is well under that at 405 total with less than a fifth of that against guys above A-ball. That makes me pretty nervous. Not like I’m unable to speak to you because you are a beautiful woman, but maybe more like I need a belt of booze in order to gain some courage to chat you up. Speaking of Henderson’s minor league career it’s not like he posted special numbers even at the lower levels. Here are his career totals: 27-24, 4.02 ERA, 1.30 WHIP an a 6.5 K/9 mark. None of that, none of it, says top-75 major league arm.

Despite what the numbers say, Tim does bring up a couple of salient points. First, Alvarez doesn’t walk anyone so even though his strikeout numbers might not impress his K/BB ratio is, in Tim’s words, pristine. Tim is right. The mark was 3.77 during his minor league days and even higher at 5.00 in 63.2 innings in the bigs last year. I gotta be honest though. Do you really think though that Henderson can be expected to walk less than a batter per start moving forward? The second point, and I can’t refute this one in any way, is that Alvarez induces grounders. That always helps a pitcher out and is often the key to mitigating big innings because homers can kill ya. Maybe the addition of another pitch – a slider – will help even further as Tim suggests.

So did I speak too quickly when I said that Alvarez had “no chance” to be a top-75 starter in 2012? Maybe, but I’m not backing down from it. Not only is Alvarez young and unproven at the big league level, he simply doesn’t have much experience against elite competition. He also doesn’t miss enough bats putting him at the mercy of his defense and some random forces. Don’t forget, and this is always big for me, even if a guy like Alvarez has a lot of big league success his value in mixed leagues is  muted if his K/9 rate is a batter an a half below the big league average. Alvarez has a skill set that suggests success is coming, but that’s a far cry from making him a legit top-75 starting pitcher in fantasy leagues in 2012 in my opinion.

For Tim’s rebuttal to my reply see – The Brodown Continues.

What do people think of Alvarez over at Fleaflicker?

By Ray Flowers

Third Base: A Wasteland?

The assumption in 2012 is that third base is a shallow position in fantasy baseball. Over at MockDraftCentral people seem to be agreeing with that line of thought as everyone is jumping in early to roster their man at the hot corner. There are nine third baseman going in the top-85 selections, and that doesn’t include Jose Bautista who would bring that number to ten (he’s listed as an outfielder though he obviously qualifies at third base). After that group there are three other third base eligible players going in picks 85-200… a vast span of time for only three third sackers to be drafted. So what’s going on at third base? Some thoughts follow.

Last year only three third base eligible performers hit .300: Michael Young (.338), Aramis Ramirez (.306) and Jose Bautista (.302).

Last year four third base eligible performers hit 30 homers: Bautista (43), Mark Reynolds (37), Adrian Beltre (32) and Evan Longoria (31).

Last year only three third base eligible performers posted 100 runs batted in: Young (106), Beltre (105) and Bautista (103).

Last year only one third base eligible player had 90 runs scored: Bautista (105).

All told, shockingly, there were three third base eligible players who hit .270 with 20 homers, 75 RBI and 75 runs scored. Those are certainly solid numbers no doubt, but only three guys were able to hit all three benchmarks (Bautista, Beltre and Ramirez)? Clearly there is a lack of stardom at the hot corner, or is there?

In 2012 injuries limited Pablo Sandoval to 117 games, David Wright to 102, Ryan Zimmerman to 101 and Alex Rodriguez to 99.  What if all of those guys play 140 games in 2012? That would give us eight guys to count on (in addition to the three above players who hit all four benchmarks).

That group of seven doesn’t include Evan Longoria who is going in the top-15 in every draft this season. That’s gets us up to eight third sackers.

Kevin Youkilis appeared in only 120 games last year, but the pace he set, if he played 145 games, would equate to 21 homers, 97 RBI and 82 runs. That’s nine quality third baseman.

Mark Reynolds may only be a .225 type of hitter, but his power and run production is elite. The last three years he has hit 113 homers, the most at the position. He has 273 RBI, the third highest total at the position. He’s also scored 261 runs, second to Longoria (274) amongst third sackers. That’s 10 quality third basemen.

Brett Lawrie is going off the board as the 5th third baseman ahead of Arod. I may not think he deserves to go that high despite oodles of talent, but even if I were to knock him down the board substantially he’s still a guy who everyone could agree is worthy of a top-12 pick.

Though Michael Young hit only 11 homers last season he hit .338, knocked in 106 runners and scored 88 times. Pretty sure he belongs in the top-12 at the hot corner.

So that’s 12 third basemen that you can pretty easily turn to. If you’re in a 12 team league that means nearly everyone who comes to the dance will have a hottie to hold (and this discussion hasn’t even included guys like Miguel Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez who will be playing third base this year).

You want more love at third?

David Freese was the MVP of the world during the playoffs last year. For more on Freese see his Player Profile.

Ryan Roberts hit 19 homers, stole 18 bases and he scored 86 runs, the third highest total at the position.

Mike Moustakas, according to most observers, is a 25-90 bat waiting to happen.

Chase Headley has the potential to go 15/15 and score plenty of runs with his approach. OK, maybe that’s a stretch, but he still has talent (see his Player Profile).

I could go on and talk about former elite level prospects like Mat Gamel and Pedro Alvarez and why it makes sense to take a shot on both late in drafts this season, but I think the point has been made. While third base may be a little top heavy, I’d argue that unless you’re in a deep league that you should feel pretty confident that there are enough men who man the hot corner to go around.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: August 16, 2011

Over at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account I get questions every day with people asking me to give my sage advice. Here are my answers to some of those queries.

I’m losing ground in saves. I have Brett Lawrie and Martin Prado for my last Util. spot. Would you trade either for Kevin Gregg?
– @we3kings00

One word – no.

Brett Lawrie is killing it. The uber prospect has hit .343 with three homers, eight RBI and a 1.121 OPS. Given the hype that he entered the league with after similarly crushing Triple-A pitchers (.353-18-61-64-13 in 69 games), his value has to be sky-high right now. He won’t keep up the average, that .375 BABIP is pretty darn high, and he’s hitting too many fly balls (50 percent) while converting to large a percentage of them for homers (23.1 percent). Still, this amazing start hints at the talent that Lawrie does possess and explains why everyone was falling all over themselves look to add him to their squad this year.

Martin Prado qualifies at third base in outfield in all leagues, and though he hasn’t played second this season, he appeared in 98 games there last year so he should be good to go there as well. As we get deeper into the season injuries are always an issue, as is potential playing time loss for some veterans to youngsters. That gives a guy like Prado, who qualifies at three spots, even more value because he can fill in all over the field. A career .300 hitter, Prado is at .274. I would expect that number to rise a bit. The reason is three fold. First, his BB.K rate of 0.70 is better than his career 0.58 rate thanks to a career low K-rate. Second, though his GB/FB ratio is 1.48, right on his 1.38 career mark, he’s managed a line drive rate of 14.7 percent. A career 19.3 producer in that category, he’s posted at least an 18.9 percent mark the last four years. Third, his BABIP is just .278. Now that isn’t surprising given his line drive rate, but again it is out of the norm for a guy who owns a .322 mark in his career. Like I said, I wouldn’t be shocked if he hit .300 from here on out because those numbers will eventually normalize (hopefully it will happen before the season ends).

Let’s break down the save. A 30 save performer averages five saves a month (the season is six months long). Therefore, it should be relatively easy to determine your chances of moving up, or moving down by using that as a baseline. Gregg has 17 saves likely meaning he will fall short of that 30 level. Not just that, he might be the worst full time closer in the American League. That’s not hyperbole either. Amongst AL hurlers with at least 15 saves he is last in WHIP (1.57) and second to the bottom in ERA at 4.11 (Matt Capps is last at 4.38). Gregg also leads the group with 30 walks leading to a simply putrid K/BB ratio of 1.30. That’s just pathetic. He’s also pitching poorly of late with a 6.17 ERA, 1.80 WHIP and 1.22 K/BB ratio over his last 13 outings. I want nothing to do with him.

If you’re dealing either of your two hitters you should be aiming much higher than the bespectacled one from Baltimore.

Jason Kipnis, Mike Carp, or Delmon Young for power ROTW?
– @KenCaeti

Kipnis has certainly started off his career with the proverbial bang. He’s gone deep six times in 68 at-bats, a pace that would net him 44 homers over 500 at-bats. Considering that he hit all of 32 homers over his first 1,050 professional at-bats… do I need to even finish that sentence? It’s early so it’s tough to draw any conclusions, but Kipnis is going to have to cut his 29 percent K-rate quickly or that average (.279) could head south. With little hope of being a base stealing asset, Kipnis is likely to settle in as a moderate mixed play option the rest of the way at second base unless he can somehow sustain his unsustainable homer pace (look no further than his 38 percent HR/F ratio for a reason that he has no chance to keep this up).

Carp is totally out of control, an I mean totally. A .200 hitter his first 15 games in the majors this season, Carp has morphed into Adrian Gonzalez since the All-Star break. In 24 games he is batting .371, has six homers, has knocked in 26 runners and has posted a 1.041 OPS.  The question is, how long will it be before he realizes that he isn’t Adrian Gonzalez? His 19 percent HR/F ratio is a bit elevated, and with less than 34 percent of his batted balls ending up in the air, it would be a stretch to expect the power to continue at this rate, especially given his home park (still, he has flashed 30 homer power in the minors, so there is a reasonable expectation that the power will continue). More concerning is the 30 percent line drive rate and .411 BABIP mark. Ty Cobb couldn’t match that.

All of a sudden everyone wants to know about Young with his surprising deal to the Tigers. He should see plenty of pitches to hit batting in front of Miguel Cabrera, and the move out of Minnesota should help as well since that’s a tough park to hit in. Still, he’s been a huge disappointment this season. Oddly though, he’s exactly matched his .312 BABIP from last season though he’s lost .029 points in batting average (.269), and his 0.32 BB/K mark is only 0.03 off of last year. Also, his 18.4 percent line drive rate is two tenths off his career norm, and his 1.31 GB/FB ratio is pretty close to his 1.44 career mark. What I’m saying is that he would appear to have a decent shot to improve his batting average the rest of the way.

So who to add? Young is the most accomplished hitter, but he’s no power threat – at all. Kipnis has been the best power bat of the trio of late, but there is simply no way he can sustain his pace. Therefore, if your goal is to add power to your lineup, I’d suggest adding Carp. Heaven help us.

Drop Anibal Sanchez for Ivan Nova for rest of season?
– @tonyistheone

Sanchez has had a fine season and produced a great return on your investment. However, he’s performed poorly of late allowing at least four earned runs in four of five games. He’s also gone 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over his last six starts. Is he simply wearing down? It’s tough to be too hard on the guy as he has still exceeded his career K/9 rate by two batters (9.41) while dropping a full batter off his walk rate (2.58). He deserves better than his 6-6 record, and his ERA according to xFIP should be closer to three (3.05) than his actual ERA of 4.00.

Nova may or may not remain in the rotation for the Yankees. The good news fore Nova is that A.J. Burnett has a 6.17 ERA and 1.83 over his last six starts, Freddy Garcia doesn’t know how to use a kitchen knife (he cut his finger and had to miss a start) and Phil Hughes is all over the map looking good one outing then getting bombed (it looks like Hughes will likely be sent to the bullpen leaving Nova in the rotation). Nova has a win in seven of his last eight outings, and five times in that stretch he’s allowed two or fewer earned runs. Though he’s pitching better than Sanchez right now he’s giving away four strikeouts per nine (5.37) and is walking more batters (3.28 per nine). He makes up for it with an impressive 55 percent ground ball rate, and pitching for the Yanks obviously affords him a better chance to pick up a “W”.

If your goal is to target wins, something that is always a risk, then go with Nova. If you’re trying to move up, or maintain, your spot in the strikeout column, then Sanchez is the choice. How is that for an  answer?

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

Rookie Roundup

photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

I always caution people not to go “all in” with rookies. The lure is intense, I’m not going to deny that, but in the end youngsters often end up disappointing because of the unreasonable expectations placed upon them. With that, here are my thoughts on some of the more heralded rookies who many were banking on getting great results from in 2011.

Dustin Ackley (.267-1-3-2-0 in 15 ABs)
Ackley is off to a solid start to his big league career with a hit in each of his four games played. He’s only whiffed one time though we’ve yet to see his trademark ability to get on base as he has only one walk. The Mariners say he’s going to play every day, and with that he is an intriguing mixed league option. I wrote about Ackley in The Prospect Trinity.

Domonic Brown (.213-4-11-11-2 in 94 ABs)
Brown has tons of talent, all the physical tools needed to be a fantasy star really, but he’s still a pretty raw ballplayer. Add in his work from last season and we are looking at a guy with a .212/.274/.385 slash line in 156 big league at-bats. The six homers and 24 RBI in that time are passable, as are the four steals, but the fact of the matter is that Brown still needs to hone his ample skills because he’s shown little consistency with the Phillies.

Eric Hosmer (.276-5-22-20-2 in 17 ABs)
The Royals’ phenom burst on to the scene with five homers and 17 RBI in his first 23 games. However, in the 18 games since his hot start he’s managed a mere .615 OPS thanks in part to zero homers in 71 at-bats. He’s also knocked in only five runs in the month of June. Given how deep the first base position is, it may be time to see if you can convince someone in your league that Hosmer is the hitter he was in May and not the guy who is struggling to keep his OBP (.326) and SLG (.418) at league average levels (.323 and .397).

Desmond Jennings (.282-10-33-52-12 in 262 ABs at Triple-A)
Jennings has show more power this season than at any point of his development, but unfortunately he’s pretty much stopped running on the bases. Given his skill set he’s going to be paid to steal 40+ bases, not to power 25 homers, so he’d be well served to get back to that approach. With Matt Joyce struggling and Johnny Damon being a potential trade chip at the deadline, Jennings will be called up at some point, though it remains to be seen how imminent the call will be. See The Prospect Trinity, linked to above, for more thoughts on Jennings.

Brett Lawrie (.354-15-49-51-11 in 223 ABs)
He was tearing it up in the minors and was mere days, literally, from being a starting member of the Blue Jays when fate stepped in. Lawrie ended up suffering a fractured hand that he is still working his way back from. It’s highly unlikely we will see him with the Jays before the All-Star break at this point, and that’s if when he returns to action that he picks up where he left off, far from a certainty given his injury. See The Prospect Trinity, linked to above, for more thoughts on Lawrie.

Jesus Montero (.291-5-25-25 in 227 ABs)
Russell Martin has done pretty well this season, Francisco Cervelli is an adequate backup backstop, and Jorge Posada is also always around if the Yankees need a hand behind the dish. That’s a lot of names that Montero will have to jump over. There is always the chance that the club will call him up to DH, but Posada has improved of late (.395 in June) and you would have to think that in the heat of the pennant race that the Yankees would make a move to add a veteran bat if they needed a hitter versus turning things over to an unproven rookie.

Anthony Rizzo (.167-1-2-3-0 in 36 ABs)
First off, it’s merely 36 at-bats, so no one should be panicking. However, Rizzo hasn’t been able to carry over his success in the minors as of yet, something I predicted could happen in my June 7, 2011 Mailbag article. The good news for Rizzo is that the team is committed to him and he will continue to play every day despite the slow start. However, it should be pointed out that he has struck out in a third of his at-bats and has just one RBI in his last nine games.

Speaking of youngsters, I dug up an old article I wrote about the Arizona Fall League in November 2009. You might want to give it a read to see what my first hand impressions were about Ackley, Brown, Mike Moustakas, Ike Davis, Buster Posey and Jemile Weeks amongst others. How accurate were my initial thoughts after watching games for three days?

By Ray Flowers

The Prospect Trinity

photo © 2011 Mike Durkin | more info (via: Wylio)

Everyone loves rookies and the promise of being the first guy to claim the next future star. The chance to grab an all-star caliber player off of waivers is ever enticing despite the fact that the overwhelming majority of rookies fail each year to reach their promise.

I’m going to break down three youngsters that I get questions about literally every day. I expect all of these players to have long and productive careers. Will that happen starting this month? Your guess is as good as mine there, so I’d caution you to avoid dropping established major league players to take a shot on guys that have scant big league work under their belt.

Brett Lawrie: .354-15-49-51-11 with a .1092 OPS in 223 ABs
Competition: Edwin Encarnacion, John McDonald, Jayson Nix

The world got a scare last night when Lawrie was hit by a pitch on his left wrist. Reports suggest that he will be fine, though it remains unclear if this will preclude him from being promoted on Friday as the rumor mill suggests (that seems highly unlikely now).

A youngster with only 51 games of experience above Double-A, Lawrie is a mere 21 years old. Though he had a solid season in 2010 at Double-A (.285-8-63-90-30), it was but not an otherworldly effort. Still, he was ranked as the 28th best prospect in baseball coming into the 2011 campaign, the skills were just too impressive to ignore, and he’s done nothing to dissuade anyone from that opinion with his blazing start to this season.

The PCL, and Las Vegas in particular, is a hitters haven. At the same time, you can’t write off the production of Lawrie because of that. As a scout recently quipped, when Lawrie swings the bat it is with ill intent. He has power, doesn’t strike out too frequently (17.9 percent K-rate), and when he gets on base he knows how to swipe a bad. To put it bluntly, there isn’t much the guy can’t do on offense.

A second baseman, Lawrie’s been shifted to third because of the anemic production of the Blue Jays’ third baseman (at one point last week Nix, McDonald and Encarnacion went 0-for-45). With little to block him from taking on a full-time role, it shouldn’t be long before Lawrie is lashing liners for the Blue Jays.

Dustin Ackley: .292-7-26-43-6, .875 OPS in 219 ABs
Competition: Jack Wilson, Adam Kennedy

The Arizona Fall League MVP, Ackley can hit, the problem is his glove. Don’t blame Ackley for that. An outfielder and first baseman in college, Ackley was shifted to second base by the Mariners. Ask scouts and they’ll tell you that he can make the routine play but that his defensive game, especially his work around the bag, needs a lot of work. They don’t question that he will get there, but the fact is he currently isn’t really anything more than, at best, an adequate defensive player.

Ackley has moderate pop, scouts think he could be 20 homer bat in the big leagues, but over his last 720 at-bats in the minors he’s managed to go deep only 14 times. He also has solid skills on the bases where he should be able to steal some bases, though again his production in that respect has been moderate (10 steals last season, six this year). What he does do well is get in base and he’s currently sporting a solid .400 OBP at Triple-A.

Chone Figgins continues to be in the teams plans at third, but he’s hitting .190 which means a guy like Ackley could really be used at the top of the Mariners’ order. The club is getting nothing from Wilson (.555 OPS in 101 ABs), and Kennedy isn’t an answer either at second base. It would appear that Ackley’s role to the majors is only blocked by his glove at this point.

Desmond Jennings: .267-8-23-37-9 with a .837 OPS in 191 ABs
Competition: Sam Fuld

The next Carl Crawford – or so he has been billed – Jennings came into 2011 as the 22nd ranked prospect according to Baseball America. Jennings undoubtedly owns elite wheels, and dreams of 40+ steals at the big league level seem like a plausible outcome one day. However, his minor league track record has been as much about starts as it has stops as he has constantly been injured.

In 2006 Jennings stole 32 bases in just 56 games.

In 2007 Jennings stole 45 bases in just 99 games.
In 2008 Jennings stole five bases in just 24 games.
In 2009 Jennings stole 52 bases in 132 games.
In 2010 Jennings stole 37 bases in just 109 games.

While the steal totals are certainly impressive, did you notice that three of the years he failed to appear in 100 games? This year he’s been healthy appearing in 50 games, but where have the steals gone (he has just nine thefts)? It doesn’t matter how fast you are if you can’t stay on the field.

In nearly 500 minor league games Jennings has hit .295 with a .382 OBP showing that he isn’t too shabby with the bat in his hands. At the same time, he’s only gone deep 37 times, though eight of those long balls have come this season.

The Rays need an infusion of speed and excitement with their club, two roles that Jennings seems ideally suited for. Unfortunately the financial situation in Tampa is such that they needed to delay Jennings arrival to the big leagues until this month so they could delay the start of his arbitration clock. B.J. Upton and Matt Joyce seem locked into the outfield, and with Johnny Damon the DH, all that stands between Jennings and significant playing time, other than the ever present pall of injury, is Sam Fuld who has hit .157 with a .434 OPS in the month of May.

By Ray Flowers

ROTW Rankings: Hitters

I get asked all the time, ‘hey Ray, can you rank these players for me the rest of the way.’ I diligently answer the queries, but with the question being asked so frequently it only made sense for me to come up with a list that I could refer people to. A few caveats before we get to the actual rankings.

(1) Players are only listed at one position so you only find Jose Bautista in the outfield and Jhonny Peralta at shortstop even though they qualify at multiple positions.

(2) I’ve sprinkled in a few rookies, guys like Brett Lawrie, Jesus Montero and Desmond Jennings, but with so much uncertainty surrounding young players and when/if they will be called up, most of the youngsters currently in the minors were left off the list.

(3) This is the most important point to make – these are Rest of the Way rankings. Jose Bautista might be the #1 fantasy performer right now, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he will be the best the ROTW. These lists are intended to give my thoughts on how players should be ranked from May 30th on, irrespective of the players production up to this point.

(4) The rankings are based on the standard of a 12 team mixed league using traditional 5×5 categories.

With that, here is the list. I’m sure you’ll all have a good time critiquing my thoughts, and I look forward to reading your replies in the COMMENTS section below.

ROTW-HITTERS-May30-2011-BBGuys

By Ray Flowers