Ride The Wave

Fantasy baseball is all about riding the wave. Sometimes we paddle out and just wait, and wait, and wait. Other times we start paddling and we time the wave wrong and it just rolls by. But when everything breaks right, when the wave meets the right timing, the result is one heck of a ride. Here are some folks who have hit the wave or missed it through the first quarter of the 2013 baseball season.

Gordon Beckham (hand) will start his rehab this weekend, he hopes, and he should be back by the end of the month. Does anyone care?

Tony Cingrani has a sore shoulder so his next start will be pushed back and potentially skipped. With Johnny Cueto nearing a return, could Cingrani be DL’d or sent to the minors? Certainly possible. Oh, and this is one of the main reasons why I suggested going Tim Lincecum over Cingrani a month ago. We know that Lincecum can make 30 starts, something he has done the last five years. Cingrani? He’s never made 30 starts and we have no idea if he can handle that workload (he’s made 36 starts since the beginning of 2011). You can love those rookies, but as I keep saying, more often than not, they fail to live up to expectations.

Josh Donaldson have a strong start to the season. Donaldson had four more hits Tuesday night and is now hitting .314 on the year. He’s doubled his walk rate from last season, up from 4.8 percent to 10.7 percent, and if he can hold on to those gains that would be huge. He’s also seen his K-rate go down five percent, and when you combine patience with discipline, success follows.

To see how others are evaluating Donaldson and others, don’t forget to go to Fleaflicker.com where you can check out the owned percentages of all your favorite players.

Bryce Harper is dealing with some nausea, but the Nationals continue to insist that Harper did not suffer a concussion when he ran into the wall the other day and these bouts of feeling ill are not concussion related symptoms. I’ve been nauseous this season watching Barry Zito pitching on the road this year with an 11.25 ERA and 2.58 WHIP over three starts. He’s got a 0.55 ERA at home with a 1.03 WHIP in five home starts.

Paul Konerko returns to the lineup after sitting out the last two games to clear his head Wednesday. Through 33 games this season Konerko has been lost with a .214 average and .623 OPS. Konerko has hit at least 22 homers every year since 2004, and he’s had at least 75 RBIs in eight of the last nine seasons. He’s 37, but he should still be able to rebound from this rough start to be productive, even if he’s unable to reach his previous levels of expectation. A .235 BABIP, that mark has been over .300 the past three years, and a 25.5 percent line drive rate which would be a career best, hint at the potential comeback here. It’s also fair to guess that his 8.0 percent HR/F ratio will improve. He’s never had a mark below 12.2 percent in a career that began in 2002.

James Loney check in. He’s leading baseball with a .381 batting average. He’s hitting .391 in May and has shown no signs of slowing down… though of course he will soon. He’s hitting .446 on the road (25-for-56) and .478 against lefties (11-for-23). In his career he has hit .255 against left-handed pitching though he has hit .299 on the road.

Russell Martin had two more hits Tuesday as he returned from a neck issue. In his last nine games Martin has four games with at least two hits. He’s also gone deep four times with eight RBIs in that time as his average has gone from .227 to .273. All of a sudden this guy looks like a hitter again.

Mitch Moreland is hot, hot, hot. He has hits in nine of last 10 games. In five of those games he had two hits. He also ripped three homers in his last two games and has gone deep six times in his last nine games. He’s pumped up his fly ball rate to 45 percent this season, five percent higher than normal, and he’s also sporting an 18.4 percent HR/F ratio, four percent above normal. If he holds on to those gains we could be looking at a 20-25 homer bat this season (he hit 16 and 15 big flies the last two years).

Nikita, starring Maqqie Q, is a pretty good series. Hot babes shooting guys, strong action scenes too. It was re-upped for a fourth season, but in a limited run, so you had better start watching before it moves to DVD.

Carlos Zambrano finally got a big league job when he signed a minor league deal with the Phillies (he had previously agreed to a deal with the independent Long Island Ducks). Can you believe that Big Z is 31 years old? At least he can take the ball whenever a team wants him to. Perhaps a workhorse in the bullpen?

Player Profile: Jayson Werth

Jayson Werth is one productive player, and he’s often being overlooked in fantasy baseball in 2013. Should you join the heard and ignore him, or should you buck that trend and target the Nationals’ outfielder in your fantasy baseball draft?

In 2008 Werth, while a member of the Phillies, went 20/20.

In 2009 he was one RBI and two runs away from a 30-100-100-20 season.

In 2010 he hit .296 with 106 runs scored.

In 2011 he saw his average dip to .232 though he was one steal from yet another 20/20 season.

Last year Werth was limited to just 81 games. But were you aware that he hit a career best .300 last season? Did you know that his OBP was .387, .025 points better than his career mark? Did you know that his OPS was .827, just slightly ahead of his career .824 mark? Despite all of that information Werth is currently being drafted just inside the top-50 at the outfield position. That must mean he is a potentially valuable add on draft day, right?

It’s a surprise to many that the following statements are true about Werth’s 2012 season (remember he was limited to just 81 games played so his overall numbers are a bit skewed).

If Werth maintained his pace through 81 games last year over the course of a 162 game season he would have hit .300 with 84 runs scored and 16 steals. That’s a pretty good season, isn’t it?

Did you know that his .300 batting average was better than Matt Holliday (.295), Alex Gordon (.294) and Yoenis Cespedes (.292)?

Did you know that his .387 OBP was better than Austin Jackson (.377), Shin-Soo Choo (.373) and Carlos Gonzalez (.371)?

Did you know that his .827 OPS was better than Bryce Harper (.817), Jason Heyward (.814) and Curtis Granderson (.811)?

How is a guy like that being drafted to late?

The most obvious thing to point to is that Werth missed half of the games last season. On the plus side he had appeared in at least 150 games each season from 2009-11 so recent history would seem to suggest that he has a good chance of rebounding in 2013.

Perhaps people look at the eight steals and aren’t impresses. As I noted though, he was on pace for 16 steals over the course of a full season. From 2009-11 he averaged 18 steals a season.

Perhaps people aren’t buying the .300 average. It was a career best, and he does own a .267 career mark. Why was his average elevated last season? His GB/FB ratio was 1.08, just slightly above his career 0.95 career mark. His 12.2 percent walk rate was just above his 12.1 percent career mark. His 18.9 percent line drive rate was a three year high but still below his career rate of 20.4 percent. Nothing going on there explains why his average went up. Two key points that I’ve yet to mention. After posting a career K-rate of 24.0 percent, Werth cut that number down to 16.6 percent last season. That’s damn impressive. Since that mark had never been below 22.5 percent since 2003 it makes you wonder if he can hold on to that again (the odds say he won’t). If he can it would go a long way to supporting his strong batting average. The other factor to look at is that .356 BABIP. That’s a really big number, but perhaps his give back in that column won’t be as pronounced in 2013 as some might think. (1) He owns a career mark of .327. (2) He had a .352 mark in 2010 an a .389 mark in 2007 showing that he can produce at that level for the course of a season.

To sign up for your baseball league this year make sure you check out Fleaflicker.

The other issue that has many nervous is his lack of pop last year, and I get why people are nervous there. From 2008-11 Werth never hit fewer than 20 big flies and averaged 27 homers a seasons. Last year he hit five, a pace that would equal 10 homers. Part of the reason that his power dissipated was the injury to his wrist that landed him on the 60 day DL. I say it all the time – hand/wrist injuries can sap a players power, especially right after they return. However, there is more to it than that. He simply didn’t perform up to normal standards. Remember earlier when I noted that his GB/FB ratio was a bit higher than normal at 1.08? That still isn’t a huge number, the league average was about 1.20 last season, so it’s not like he was hitting a ton of ground balls. However, his fly ball rate was 38.9 percent. That was the first time in four years he had failed to post a mark of 40 percent (his career mark is 40.8 percent). That’s a rather minor thing though an certainly doesn’t speak to a 50 percent drop off in homers. The reason that happened is that his HR/F fell to 5.3 percent. Not only is that about half the big league average, it’s a massive drop off for a guy who owns a 14.4 percent career mark, and one who had posted a mark of at least 12.3 percent each of the previous five seasons. As long as his wrist is healthy, he should see his homer total go back up.

So what to do with Werth? The National announced that they were moving Bryce Harper’s spot in the batting order. Harper will hit third behind Denard Span and Mr. Werth. That’s a great spot for Werth as he will see a lot of fastballs so that Span will have a harder time stealing and so that the game’s greatest phenom isn’t always coming to bat with players on base. With health there is a very reasonable expectation that Werth will provide numbers like he always has, and that means a .270-20-65-85-15 type of season is very well within the realm of possibility for a guy who it looks like you may be able to tab as your 4th or 5th outfielder. I like the sound of that a lot and so should you.

* Don’t forget to pick up your copy of the 2013 BaseballGuys Fantasy Baseball Draft Guide which is now available. Nearly 150 pages of insight to help you dominate the competition in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

2013 – Tout Wars

Tout Wars is one of the two exclusive fantasy baseball events each year (the other is LABR which I participated in earlier in March). Thanks to the powers that be I was invited to New York to put together a squad in Tout Wars for the second straight year. Below, you will see how my team came together, and I’ll give some thoughts about the entire weekend, which by the way, was a total blast (gotta be the greatest group of folks anyone can work with).

15 team mixed league auction.
14 hitters (2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OFs, UT)
nine pitchers (any mix of starters and relievers)
$260 salary cap

* This league is using OBP in place of batting average. It’s still a 5×5 league, just with that one change.

* Numbers in () are prices paid for each player.

* This league also has a shallow bench, only four spots. However, there is also an unlimited amount of DL spots beyond the four bench spots meaning a player on the DL does not take up a bench spot – i.e. players who start the year on the DL can be replaced with players off the waiver-wire.

C: John Jaso ($6), Tyler Flowers (4)
1B: Eric Hosmer (17)
2B: Howie Kendrick (12), Emilio Bonifacio (6), Daniel Murphy (Reserve)
3B: Martin Prado (14), Manny Machado (6), Pablo Sandoval (14), Alex Rodriguez (Res)
SS: Derek Jeter (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (36), Bryce Harper (33), Domonic Brown (6), Jon Jay (4), Cameron Maybin (6), Billy Hamilton (Res)

STARTING PITCHERS: Brandon Morrow (13), Cliff Lee (23), Zack Greinke (14), Tim Hudson (4), Ryan Dempster (1), Edinson Volquez (Res)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Sergio Romo (16), Joel Hanrahan (11), Mike Adams (3), Jose Veras (4)

Jaso is a solid hitter, and in an OBP league he’s a lot better option than in “normal” leagues (he had an elite .394 OBP last season). Flowers an I are not related but can you blame me for drafting my namesake? He has power and his OBP should be about league average.

Hosmer has had a killer spring, and you know I expect a bounce back (see his Player Profile). Machado may not have a strong OBP, but the rest of his game should be very solid for the price. Sandoval has that elbow issue, so there is uncertainty. I could have used my money elsewhere (another arm perhaps, see below for more on that), but when I saw him sitting there for such a cheap price I had to take the plunge. A-Rod goes to the DL, and I’ll grab another player.

Kendrick will never get to the level some hoped for, but he’s always solid across the board (see his Player Profile). He does take a bit of a hit in an OBP league though. Murphy was a nice reserve round add. I’ll be able to place him on the DL and add another player (a shortstop), to fill out my lineup. Wait, how does Emilio qualify at second? In Tout there is a 15 game per position requirement, not 20. Emilio appeared in 15 games at second base last season. Prado also qualifies in the outfield, and by this point I think everyone knows I’m a big fan.

Jeter isn’t great, and it looks like he’ll miss the first week of the season, but for $7 who is gonna complain? Not I.

CarGo on my team everyone understands, but Harper? I like Harper, but I’m not predicting a top-10 season this year like others are. “So Ray, why is he on your team then?’ I tossed out Harper at $33 and then… crickets. I was very surprised that no one said $34. Did I miscalculate? Certainly seems that way, though it’s not an obnoxious bid (Stanton went for $34, the same Price as Justin Upton to make me feel a little better, but when other 20/20 types in the outfield went for much less – Choo $25, Cespedes $24, Heyward $31 – let’s just say I wasn’t overly excited). There is no doubt Harper has the talent to justify that bid, just wouldn’t have been my first choice. Brown has had a tremendous spring, and there aren’t any more talented outfielders that went for less than $6. Jay isn’t exciting to most, but he is a .300 career hitter who had a .373 OBP with 19 steals last season in 117 games played. Maybin will struggle in OBP, but his wrist seems healthy. There’s a 15/40 season lurking here. Hamilton was a total shot in the dark reserve add. Normally I wouldn’t have done that, but since I have two injured guys I can place on the DL, I figured I could add Hamilton at little risk.

Yes, that was me at 2 AM at Foley’s shooting a double shot of Jameson. Take that Kay Adams. That’s right, the Oracle doesn’t just drink fruity drinks (check out the shocked look on Kay’s face in this photo… that’s the Oracle on the left and Kyle Elfrink on the right). Well, I do most of the time…

I love Cliff Lee. He’s a top-5 option in my mind. He gave me six wins last year in Tout, but I’m doubling down on him this season. I might have paid a dollar or two more when compared to other similar arms, but I feel like I made that back when I got Greinke for just $14. Morrow for a dollar less has a lot of up as well. That’s a pretty strong trio in my mind. Add in veterans like Hudson and Dempster and that’s a solid core. I also felt really good about Volquez in the reserves. He had an ERA under three with a WHIP in the 1.20′s and darn near a K per inning in his home starts last season.

As usual, I like my pen. I snagged Adams with an early bid, and he’s a dominant arm when healthy. Romo might have gone for a dollar or two more than he should have, but I’ve long said he’s a top-10 reliever in baseball if he can stay healthy. Some are worried about the varied performance of Hanrahan in Spring. I’m not. Jose Veras is no great shakes but he’s been over 10 Ks per nine the past three years and he appears to be the Astros main option in the 9th.

Some final thoughts.

My team has a ton of speed but might be a bit thin on power. I’ll address that at some point on the trade market once I get clear on the steals.

My staff needs another arm. I’ll almost certainly add one in the first waiver period with one of my two DL spot openings (I will use the other spot to get a shortstop to help cover until Jeter returns).

I usually limp slowly into drafts, but I went a bit bigger than normal thanks to the Harper add. That was unfortunate too. This draft would have played perfectly into my hands if I done my normal start slow, wade into the water slowly thing. As it was, I spent big early on some folks and that meant in the middle rounds, when a lot of “my guys” were going for less than market value, I just didn’t have the cash to spend (this was particularly evident on the hill – Lincecum for $10, Gallardo $15, Zimmerman $13, Wilson $8). I really hope I don’t regret not having the cash to spend on Lincecum. Hell, if I had gotten that foursome for $46 I would have felt flipping fantastic.

Best Picks: Bonifacio/Maybin for $6 each, Greinke for $14.
Worst Pick: Harper for $33 (only because it wasn’t my plan, not cause I hate the player).

Click on the link to see the 2013 Mixed Tout results.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Bryce Harper

What Bryce Harper did last season was amazing. Anytime a player hits 22 homers with 18 steals and 98 runs scored that is one heck of a season. When a player does that as a rookie it’s a rather remarkable season. When a player does that as a 19 year old it’s a season for the record books. Will the next great one build on a special rookie season in year two, and if so, how far up the mountain can he climb in 2013?

A look at some facts from 2012.

Bryce Harper hit 22 homers. Only one player 19 or younger ever hit more – Tony Conigliaro had 24 in 1964.

Bryce Harper had 59 RBIs. That is the 8th highest total ever for a player 19 years of age or younger (Phil Cavarretta had 82 in 1935).

Bryce Harper scored 98 runs. Only one player 19 or younger scored more (Buddy Lewis had 100 in 1936).

Bryce Harper had 18 steals. Only one player in the Modern Era (since 1901), 19 or younger, has ever stolen more bags (Ty Cobb stole 23 in 1906).

Bryce Harper had a .817 OPS as a 19 year old. No one 19 or younger ever had a better mark in a season of 502 plate appearances.

Given those facts, Harper must be looked at as an elite talent capable of immense things, the same point of view every person that has ever watched him play a game on the baseball field agrees with. This 19 year old kid was two steals and two runs from a 20/20, 100 season. Hell, Alex Rios and Carl Crawford have never done that. The question with Harper is how good will he be?

If we remove his name and age and just focus on the numbers, here is what we find.

He struggled against lefties hitting .240 with a .300 OBP and mere .415 SLG. He also struck out 51 times in just 183 at-bats against lefties.

He posted a BB/K mark of 0.47 which is basically league average. When he swung at a pitch that was thrown inside the strike zone he made contact 87 percent of the time, a solid number for a player who also owns a 20.1 percent K-rate.

His GB/FB ratio was 1.35, a bit higher than the league average. Moreover, his 33 percent fly ball rate was two percentage points below the league average making his homer total pretty impressive. The reason he was able to go deep 22 times was due to a solid 16.2 percent HR/F ratio. Anyone who has ever watched him hit knows that is a number he is more than capable of repeating and/or improving upon moving forward.

But we cannot remove the name on the back of the jersey from this discussion, can we? Much like the case with Mike Trout, these two players are once in a generation talents who just so happen to be starting their careers at the same time. Is it fair to either, particularly Harper since that’s who this piece is about, to treat him like every other youngster who has ever played the game? If I was to do that I would say that we should expect some moderate growth in year two. The average may not improve much, not until he cuts down the walks a bit and learns to be a bit more patient, but a repeat is well within the realm of the possible. I would also say that looking at the totality of the evidence that another run to 20/20 would be possible, though I would be a bit concerned about there being any homer growth since the fella didn’t hit as many fly balls as I would like to see.

Again though, is it fair to do this? Can we simply remove our beliefs/eyes when it comes to a generational talent like Harper? Do we change the way we evaluate players because of who Harper is and the fact that he accomplished so many amazing things as a mere 19 year old? That’s the exact point that analysis breaks down and the data might not be sufficient to explain what we are witnessing.

Is Harper capable of hitting .300?
NO. At this stage of his development he can be pitched to. If pitchers hit their spots they can not only get him out, but make him look bad in the process.

Is Harper capable of hitting 30 homers?
YES. Will he? Not without hitting more fly balls.

Is Harper capable of 20 steals?
YES. He nearly got there last year as a player with no big league experience an as one who got base at a .340 clip.

Is Harper capable of 80+ RBIs?
YES. The Nationals would seem to have a pretty stacked order, but it will still be tough for him to knock in 80+ runs if he hits out of the #2 hole (his spot for 117 of his 139 games last season).

Is Harper capable of 100 runs scored?
Duh. He had 98 last season. Hitting second obviously helps him in this category.

So what would you pay on draft day for a guy who could go .280-25-75-100-20. An awful lot right? I’m not saying that Harper will hit all five of those numbers. I’m also not saying he’ll fall short in all five categories. I merely use those numbers as a way to illustrate how most people will be viewing him on draft day which means if you want to roster Harper this year you will have to be willing to spend a top-25 selection. I don’t think I will be able to join that party. I know that he is an immense talent who we might one day look back on and be able to tell our children that we saw him play from the first day of his career, but I also know that he is only 20 years old and has a total of 139 games played at the big league level. I’d rather spend a top-25 selection on a player that I felt more secure about producing across the board than on Harper, even if there is a good chance that he ends up fulfilling those lofty expectations in 2013.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: November 19, 2012 – Awards

(1) Buster Posey the runaway winner of the NL MVP Award.

(2) Why did Miguel Cabrera dominate Mike Trout in AL MVP voting?

(3) Why did R.A. Dickey dominate in NL Cy Young Voting?

(4) David Price defeated Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver for the AL Cy Young.

(5) Bryce Harper narrowly edged Wade Miley for NL ROY.

(6) Mike Trout the 8th unanimous winner for AL ROY.

(7) Oddities in voting. Who are some of these voters?

BBWAA – Award Info.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: September27, 2012

All of pomp and circumstance around Mike Trout, who is hitting .259 in September and .274 over his last 51 games by the way, has obscured the great season that Bryce Harper has had. Harper hit his 20th homer to become just the second teenager in the history of the game to reach that mark (Tony Conigliaro pulled off the trick with 24 bombs in 1964). Add in his 17 steals, and the guy has damn near gone 20/20… as a teenager. Harper has also scored 93 times on the year, and he’s performed very well in September with a .297/.366/.482 slash line while scoring 22 times in 24 games. All told it’s been a pretty remarkable season.

Chris Nelson of the Rockies has been killing it. In September he is hitting .359 with 16 RBIs and 17 run scored, and going a bit further back he’s hit .346 over his last 50 games. Given that he qualifies at second and third base, he’s been a hell of a stop gap option in virtually every league for two months now.

Max Scherzer has been scratched from his start Friday because of a deltoid strain in his shoulder. Two starts ago he lasted just two innings against the A’s, and the last time he took the hill he wasn’t very impressive either as he allowed three runs in five innings. With his velocity down the team is trying to balance his long-term health with his importance to the club as they try to hold off the White Sox for the AL Central crown (they have a one game lead). By the way, Scherzer had been dynamite in the second half going 8-2 with a 2.81 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 107 Ks in just 86.1 innings. He’s got an elite arm, and the Tigers don’t want to take the chance on him doing something long-term to his wing.

And now, on to a question…

With Michael Bourn’s terrible finish and unknown FA destination, can you see keeping Chris Sale or R.A. Dickey ahead of him? I can keep five players and currently plan on keeping Robinson Cano, Ryan Braun, Joey Votto and Curtis Granderson.
– @mdbaumer

Bourn has hit an anemic .222 over his last 66 games played after hitting the All-Star break with a mark of .311 (he’s also been out of the lineup of late with a thumb injury). Any owner of Bourn knows that, and I’m sure it has caused frustration. However, let’s keep things on the macro and not micro level. On the year Bourn has hit .274. Last season in 53 games with the Braves he hit .278. For his career he’s batted .272. It’s been uneven, but the truth is Bourn’s average is the same as always. His current .346 OBP is slightly better than his .338 career mark. His .391 SLG is slightly better than his career .365 mark. He’s also scored 93 times, just one less than last season an a mere four off his career best. He’s also hit nine homers, he hit a total of seven homers the last three years, and that has somewhat helped to ease the pain that his owners have felt for his drop in steals. After stealing at least 52 bags the past three years he has just 39 this season. Still, with one more theft he will reach the 40 total for the fifth straight season.

Bourn, and all speedsters, face an issue in the fantasy game. People don’t understand their value properly. People see inadequate homer and RBIs marks, and a middling batting average, and they fail to appreciate the value of the runs and steals in the fantasy game. I’ve written about steals and their value over an over, but let’s address it one more time. Here are the player rater rankings for Bourn according to three of the major sites in fantasy baseball.

CBS: 37th overall
ESPN: 39th overall
YAHOO: 52nd overall

Average that together and the three main sites say that Bourn’s effort this season makes him the 43rd most valuable player in fantasy baseball, an I completely agree with that assessment.

It’s fair to wonder if he will return to the 50+ steal club, I’ll give you that, but if he merely replicates the effort that he has put forth this season he will once again be an elite starting option in the outfield. I also have to say that a starting outfield of Braun, Granderson and Bourn… that would be as good a trio as anyone in any league ever has.

Dickey has had an amazing season, one that might earn him the Cy Young Award. He leads the NL in ERA (2.66), is one victory behind Gio Gonzalez for the NL lead in wins with 19, and two strikeouts behind Clayton Kershaw for the lead in strikeouts with 209. Since the start of the 2010 season he’s been a rather remarkable performer given his almost complete reliance on the knuckleball with a 2.93 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over 92 outings. However, it’s pretty impossible to think that he will be able to repeat his effort of this season in 2013. Look no further than the three batter per nine inning increase he’s offered in 2012 in the strikeout department (8.55) over his mark in 2010-11. In his own way, Dickey has been as amazing this year as Trout has at the plate, and just like with Trout, it strains credulity a wee bit to think either will repeat their efforts.

Sale continues to power through the innings. After a spectacular start to the year – he was 10-2 with a 2.19 ERA and 0.95 WHIP – Sale has predictably slowed in the second half, but it’s not like he’s been bad at all (7-5, 3.66 ERA, 1.28 WHIP with 87 Ks in 86 IP). On the year he has a 8.83 K/9 mark, a 1.10 WHIP an a 1.41 GB/FB ratio. He’s been special in his first year as a full-time starter.

If I was going to keep a hurler, it would have to be Sale. He’s younger, has a bigger arm, an a brighter future. I can understand how most would feel more comfortable keeping one or two arms amongst the five keepers, but if it was me I’d likely limit that mark to one pitcher, keeping four hitters. That doesn’t mean I would have to keep a hurler though (there is so much uncertainty with arms – look no further than Tim Lincecum’s terrible year, Jake Peavy’s out of nowhere effort, or the injuries to Garza, Beachy, Luebke, Storen, Rivera, Wilson, Soria etc.). I would hold on to Bourn and take my chances at the draft table to build my pitching staff. However, if you want to play it safe and keep Sale, I don’t have a problem with that.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 at 7 PM EDT, Monday through Thursday, and Friday’s from 9-12 PM EDT. 

Fantasy Beat – Tim Heaney of KFFL.com

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray interviewed one of the best in the business Tim Heaney from KFFL.com. They will discuss Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Billy Hamilton, Jed Gyorko and other Sept call ups.

LISTEN TO THE AUDIO.

Mailbag: June28, 2012

It’s Thursday, so it’s time to answer the questions you’ve sent me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Mike Stanton for Bryce Harper/Trevor Plouffe/Andre Ethier?
@wekings007

Reality check everyone. As great as Stanton is and will one day be, he’s merely an impressive power hitter right now. The best hitter on the planet in May, he’s been pretty darn blah the other two months of the season. In the end he’s on pace to hit .274 with 35 homers, 100 RBI and 90 runs. Those are impressive totals indeed, but they are not the jump off the page I’m going to win a fantasy championship because of them numbers. Did you listen when I told you to back down from expectations before the season started?

I know that Ethier injured his left oblique Wednesday, and that there is no clear cur answer as to how much time he  is going to miss throwing his value up in the air, but do you know what his current pace is for the Dodgers? How about 291 with 20 homers, 115 RBI and 75 runs. Is that really that far off of Stanton’s pace? Harper has slowed a bit but he’s still hitting .281 with a .841 OPS and a pace that would lead to a 20/20 season over a full slate of games.

Plouffe is the wild card. Over his last 10 games he has hit .243 with one homer, a far cry from the insane pace he set early in the month when he blasted nine homers with 16 RBI in 12 games. The power is legit, he’s gone deep 25 times in 512 career at-bats, but he’s also hit .232 with a mere .299 OBP – not exactly the stuff of legend. Still, he qualifies at shortstop and third in all league, and in most he’s also eligible in the outfield and possibly even second base.

If Ethier was healthy this would be a killer deal. Even with him injured it’s certainly not an awful haul, even though Stanton is the most exciting player in the group. I think the question becomes which two players would you need to drop since you’re adding three players and only sending one away? Add in those two players and the deal likely won’t make sense.

Where is Wil Myers going to play if KC promotes him? How long before promotion?
@The_Real_Ray_D

I get this question all the time, and here is my standard answer.

Alex Gordon will be playing everyday in the outfield.

Jeff Francoeur, unless he is traded (the club is probably hoping they can move Frenchie), will be playing everyday in the outfield.

Lorenzo Cain, slated to start in CF this year before injuries struck (remember when he was killing it in the preseason leading to people drafting him as one of the potential breakout starts of 2012?), is closing in on a return to the big leagues as his rehab work (hip issue) was shifted to Triple-A this week.

Billy Butler is the DH and Eric Hosmer is the first baseman.

Where can Myers fit in there? He can’t is the answer. The Royals will need to trade Francoeur, or Cain will have to stall out in his recovery to give the power hitting Myers a chance to play everyday in the bigs (Myers is killing it hitting .325 with 35 homers and 65 RBI in 75 minor league games this year). As I wrote last November in my AFL – 2011 Review column, the guy is gonna be a star – we’re just going to have to wait a bit longer.

Any chance Logan Morrison will have a decent second half?
@peterjpappas

After hitting 23 homers with 72 RBIs last year there was some hope that LoMo would take his game to the next level this season as a prime time run producing force. He hasn’t. His average is down .020 points to .227 and his OBP has dropped to .305 (career .340). He’s on pace for about 18 homers and 55 RBI. He’s also walking less than he did in either of his two previous seasons. Toss in a sickly .241 BABIP, some .041 points below his career rate, and there really isn’t much to get excited about here at all. I can’t envision a player of his skill set being this bad all year long, but there’s nothing going on here that screams to me that LoMo is going to be a significant player in the fantasy game the ROTW.

Jon Lester and Michael Bourn for Justin Verlander?
@franksyanks23

Lester has a 5-5 record, 4.53 ERA and 1.34 WHIP. After years of upper echelon work those are terribly disappointing numbers. Still, he’s tossed 5-straight “quality starts” as he slowly seems to be rounding into form. Oddly, Lester has lost more than a batter off his K/9 rate while also dropping a batter off his BB/9 rate. The result us a 2.93 K/BB ratio that would actually be a three year best if you can believe it. He’s also produced a 1.76 GB/FB ratio that is better than his 1.44 career rate. The real issue is that his he’s been getting hit hard. Currently his line drive rate is 23.3 percent, an unheard of level for a guy with a 19 percent career mark that has kept that mark under 21 percent each of the past four years. I’d expect his effort to continue to improve.

Bourn has been an elite performer — just like I said he would be. Oddly though, he’s accomplished it in a bit different way that was expected. After hitting seven homers the past three years he has gone deep seven times this season. Clearly this is one of those random things that just happens sometimes (don’t expect him to go deep 15 times this year). However, after 3-straight years of at least 52 steals he has “only” 20 thefts this year. He’s still on pace for a fifth straight effort of 40-steals, but it would be nice to see a few more stolen bases. Still, you can’t complain when Bourn is hitting .309 with 50 runs scored in 74 games.

Verlander is as good as it gets. His ERA is up a tenth from last year to 2.52, his WHIP is up less than a tenth to 0.97, and his K/9 rate is down three tenths to 8.64. Wow, he’s really fallen off. He’s the pinnacle of the elite. Period.

The deal is pretty fair for both sides. Most people don’t want to give up the “best player” in a deal, but the return here is significant – an elite outfielder and a solid hurler who is slowly rounding into form.

I was offered Chase Utley or Billy Butler for Derek Jeter? I have Jose Reyes to play SS and Allen Craig to play 2B.
@NY_G123

Pull the breaks on the hype train. Utley returned to action, and homered in his first game, but there is NO way you can take him for Jeter straight up, even if you do have Reyes to fill in at shortstop. None. Utley missed nearly the first three months of the season with knee issues, this coming on the heels of seasons of 115 and 103 games played. You know the Phillies aren’t going to play him every day the rest of the way either (he’s resting Thursday). I’m all for taking a shot on Utley because I think he will still be an effective hitter when on the field, but you’d be better off pouring soap in your eye and trying to read a smutty novel than doing this deal.

The Butler offer does make sense. Though everyone always likes to put the guy down, or just flat out overlook him for some reason, Butler is a hell of a hitter. Not only is he hitting .297, he’s hit at least .291 each of the past three years, he’s also on pace for a career best in the homer category with 15 through 72 games (his previous best is 21 homers). I don’t think he’ll get to 30 homers, it’s not likely that he’ll be able to keep his 22.1 percent HR/F rate given that it’s double his career rate of 11 percent, but that doesn’t mean a .300-25-100 season can be ruled out for the Royals’ hitter.

In this situation, with Reyes ready to take over at short, I’d take Butler in the deal. Jeter has solid all-around numbers (.305-7-25-40-6) but he’s had only 12 RBI and hit a mere .269 over his last 50 games played after his tremendous start to the year.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday.

Daily Joust – Wk 12: Did We Learn Anything?

On Monday each week I take a look at the fantasy baseball game breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances of late – not just positive outings mind you, but I’ll also delve into some of the players that have been sucking wind of late.

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club. Can you use this information to your benefit over at DJ?

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Matt Holliday (+21, $128,000 in DailyJoust Salary)
And you were doubting him just a few weeks ago, admit it. Holliday is on fire over his last eight games as he’s produced 17 hits, two homers, 12 RBI and nine runs. In the process he’s jacked up his average to .299 on the year with 12 homers, 47 RBI and 48 runs scored. Guess what? That puts him on pace for his traditional .300-25-100-100 effort. The greats usually figure it out and end up producing by the time the season is over.

Tommy Milone (+70, $241)
Doesn’t it seem like his name should have two “L’s” in it? I need to talk to his parents about that. When a rookie starts the year 7-5 with a 1.21 WHIP you can’t help but be excited about it. However, his ERA is slightly below average at 4.13 and he’s taken the whole “I’m Clayton Richard and you only pitch me when I’m at home” situation to a whole other level. In eight starts on the road Milone is 2-4 with a 7.42 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. In six starts at home in Oakland he’s the best pitcher ever at 5-1 with a 0.99 ERA and 0.77 WHIP. There’s your blue print on how to use him.

Chris Nelson (+20, $93K)
With Troy Tulowitzki out of action, Marco Scutaro has moved on to short leaving second base to Nelson. Displaying an uncommon power bat given his “game,” Nelson has gone deep three times with two doubles and a triple over his last eight games leading to nine RBIs. He’s also lifted his average from .226 to .268 the past 10 days thank to five games with at least two hits. He makes an excellent short term play given how hot he has been and for the fact that he should qualify at second and third in all leagues (many seem to be slow to the party, just take a look at his owned rate at Feaflicker).

Jake Westbrook (+105, $320K)
The last time he took the hill he tossed the 14th complete game of his career as he allowed only one unearned run to the Tigers. Over his last three outings he’s been “quality” each time out lasting at least six innings with no more than three earned runs allowed. One of the main reasons for his success is that he’s walked only two batters in those three games. It’s really pretty simple. When he avoids the free pass and keeps the ball down in the zone he has a lot of success. He’s a two-time starter this week against the Marlins and Pirates, and that would seem to make him a solid play this week.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Felix Doubront (-60, $274K)
After a run of 5-straight games allowing two or fewer earned runs, Felix has now permitted 12 earned runs over his last three starts as his ERA has gone from 3.75 to 4.31. The strikeouts are terrific, 85 in 79.1 innings is impressive, but his recent cold spell has knocked his ratios down to below league average (his WHIP is 1.35). He’s 8-3 and pitches for a strong squad, but it might be time to consider whether or not you should be counting on him to lead your fantasy rotation.

Bryce Harper (-19, $73K)
Hey, it was bound to happen. Bryce Harper might end up being the next Mickey Mantle as some say, but let’s not forget he can’t legally buy a Jack & Coke – not by a longshot – and that he isn’t exactly flush with professional experience at this stage of his life. At his current pace he’d produce the following numbers over 150 games (he’s played 50): 21 homers, 60 RBI, 95 runs and 14 steals. That’s impressive for any player no doubt, never mind one his age, but he’s seen his average fall .017 points the past 10 games (.286), the same total his OBP has dropped (.367). Everything is still impressive, but perhaps, just maybe, there’s a slowdown on the horizon?

Trevor Plouffe (-24, $87K)
Plouffe has a rather amazing 15 homers in just 175 at-bats this year thanks to his insane run the past month, but let’s keep things real here. He is batting .246 with a .327 OBP, hardly impressive numbers. He has 40 strikeouts in 175 at-bats. He has just one long ball and two RBI over his last eight games. You added him for nothing so who’s complaining, but his outlook in the second half of the season isn’t exactly golden.

Giancarlo Stanton (-21, $62K)
Look at his monthly totals. Maybe Jay Bruce has some company for the streakiest high level power bat in the game.

April: .247-1-9
May: .343-12-30
June: .205-3-5

Like I have said every time someone has asked me, this guy just isn’t a .300 hitter. His current mark of .274 seems about right, and he’s on pace for 35 homers and 100 RBIs which would also be impressive, but that transcendent season people were hoping for isn’t likely to materialize.

DAILY CONTEST

I’ve likely got some big news coming on this front this week, so keep an eye our for that. As for right now…

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Fantasy Beat: Chris Liss of RotoWire.com

Justin Fensterman and Trevor Ray talk with Chris Liss from RotoWire.com about Eric Hosmer, BABIP, closers and much more.

Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Yoenis Cespedes, Eric Hosmer, Tim Lincecum

Listen to the Audio.