Player Profile: Bud Norris

The Astros are awful. They won only 55 games, losing 107 times, as the worst team in baseball in 2012 (they won a mere 20 games on the road last season). They were outscored by 211 runs, also the worst mark in baseball. But things are looking up for 2013. They are moving to the AL. They have new uniforms. They… that’s about it. Given how embarrassing things were last season it’s hard to get down on any one player from the club, there is enough blame to infect pretty much every section of the organization, but in terms of the on the field product one of the biggest losers has to be flame throwing Bud Norris who went from a being a player on the verge of a breakout to one wallowing in the morass of mediocrity in 2012. But is that actually a fair representation of what occurred?

Bud Norris won six games against 11 loses in 2011, blame the team for that, but he posted a 3.77 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and had 176 Ks in 186 innings in what counts as a Cy Young type effort for the Astros these days.

In 2012 Norris actually won more games, seven is nothing of course, but he also lost two more (13). The biggest gripe his owners will have is that his ERA rose by nearly a full run to 4.65. That’s a number that strikes fear into fantasy players who envision a move to the AL doing nothing to help a hurler. However, I’m here to tell you that all hope isn’t lost. Let me be clear. All hope is lost if you think Norris will actually have his name mentioned in the Cy Young talk, but all hope isn’t lost if your expectations are that you could add this hard thrower late and get a passable season with strong strikeout totals.

Like with James McDonald in his Player Profile the other day, Norris’ efforts look worse on the surface than they actually were. Consider the following data points.

Norris’ WHIP was 1.33 in 2011. It was 1.37 in 2012.

Norris upped his K-rate from 8.52 to 8.82 per nine innings in 2012.

Norris walked 3.53 batters after a 3.39 mark per nine in 2011, but given the extra strikeouts his 2.50 K/BB ratio was only one hundredth lower than his ’11 mark.

Norris allowed less than a tenth more homers per nine innings than the year before (1.23 to 1.16). His HR/F ratio also changed by a mere three tenths (12.0 to 11.7 percent).

Norris allowed the exact same line drive rate in both seasons (21.2 percent). His BABIP went from .294 to .301, and that’s pretty much exactly the same.

His left on base percentage in the two years was only 0.7 apart (72.8 and 72.1 percent).

Norris saw his GB/FB ratio go from 1.01 in ’11 to 0.99 in ’12. It was the same.

That’s a whole lot of the same wouldn’t you say?

There is a legitimate concern with Norris that I haven’t touched on. If he wasn’t on a team bereft of talent, would Norris be pitching out of the bullpen? Norris throws hard, often a key to bullpen arms, but it should be noted that his fastball velocity has gone down three straight years (94, 93.6, 92.6 and 91.8 mph). Part of that has to do with his attempt to locate his pitches better, but it’s also obviously a result of having to throw so many pitches over the course of the year. The second point, and more germane to the talk of moving him to the pen, is the fact that he’s really only a two-pitch pitcher. For his career Norris has thrown his heater 55 percent of the time while throwing the slider 36 percent of the time leaving less than 10 percent of his pitches as a third offering (a change up). Moreover, Norris cut his change up usage down even further last season throwing the pitch just 6.7 percent of the time, a four year low. If Norris was moved the bullpen and allowed to work the 9th inning we might be looking at something with that right arm of his.

One final note. He has some fairly drastic career splits that include a 3.51 ERA at home an a 5.39 ERA on the road so he might be a solid streaming option at home an a poor option while throwing on the road.

Norris is a big arm who pitches for a terrible team who is now in the league of hitters. He’s still worth a reserve round add in mixed leagues, talent and stuff cannot be taught, but the distance to fantasy stardom is slightly more vast than it was 12 months ago.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust – Wk 10: Did We Learn Anything?

To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

Clay Buchholz (+112, $339,000 in Daily JoustSalary)
He’s got a 5.77 ERA and 1.58 WHIP, and the last time he was worth anything in the fantasy game was 2010. Still, the seeds of improvement are here. Over his last three starts he has allowed four runs and four of the last five times out he’s allowed two or fewer runs. A big key? He’s reigned in the walks with only four in his last three starts. Still, I’m not a huge fan. I just don’t like his overall game.

Jonny Gomes (+24, $79K)
The guy has power. He has five homers this year in 107 at-bats, and dating back to last season he has gone deep 19 times in 418 at-bats. At the same time he has hit .211 in that time – he’s hitting .215 this year – though he does have a rather impressive .333 OBP given his lowly average. He’s nothing more than a depth option in AL-only leagues since he’s really not a very good hitter against right-handed pitching.

Ian Kennedy (+97, $329K)
Kennedy has allowed a total of one run in his last two starts as he’s racked up 19 Ks in just 13.2 innings. Kennedy was never going to match his performance from last year (21-4 record). Wasn’t gonna happen. Still, his K/9 rate of 8.44 is up from last season (8.03) while his BB/9 rate is the same at 2.26. Honestly though, he’s pitched pretty similar to what he offered last year (xFIP was 3.50 last year, this year it’s 3.86).

Miguel Montero (+19, $84K)
Montero has two homers and seven RBI over his last five games signaling that perhaps he is finally on the cusp of returning to the hitter everyone thought they were drafting this year. A season after hitting .282 with 18 homers and 86 RBI, Montero’s power is way down (four HR) while his average is also lagging (.249). I still believe he could be the hitter he was last year the rest of the way. Time will tell.

Wei-Yin Chen (+89, $264K)
He’s pitched well in his first 11 big league starts with a 3.49 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Still, his K/BB is 2.32. His GB/FB is 0.90. His BABIP is .283. His HR/9 is 0.94. The end result? That’s a whole lot of league average numbers isn’t it?

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Dexter Fowler (-25, $91K)
Hitting .281 with a .382 OBP, people are starting to get a wee bit nervous with Fowler after 9-games without a homer and nine Ks in his last four games. Perspective people. Has he been cold for a week? For sure. Was he insanely hot the week before? You know this. He’s on pace for a 20 homers, 75 RBI, 90 run, 15 SB season. Hold fast.

Mike Moustakas (-19, $75K)
Hitting .273 with a .336 OBP, Moose has been solid but not great. The nine homers and 28 RBI put him on pace to be a top level option at third base in the power department, but he’s also hit only one homer in 10 games, and in 54 at-bats against lefties he has a .583 OPS. Still has a ways to go, but a solid start.

Ivan Nova (-74, $219K)
He’s 8-2 and he has a rather amazing, for him, 69 Ks in 77.2 innings (his 8.00 K/9 mark is more than two an a half batters above his career rate entering the year). He’s also allowed just one run in 15 innings over his last two starts. At the same time he’s got a 4.64 ERA and 1.42 WHIP and he’s allowed five or more earned runs in five of his last nine starts and his ground ball rate is on the decline (52 percent his first two seasons down to 47 percent). Tread carefully.

Bud Norris (-49, $182K)
On May 25th Norris had a 3.14 ERA. Now? That number is 4.65 as he has been blown up for 16 runs over his last three starts (12.1 innings). Obviously he’s struggling to get batters out at the moment, but he’s also struck out 18 batters in that time so he’s still providing some value. He’s likely not a 3.14 ERA guy, but I also don’t think he’s a 4.65 guy either.

Buster Posey (-20, $75K)
Hitting .290 with a .810 OPS, Posey is just about back to the hitter he was in 2010 when he took the Bay Area by storm. Still, that’s if we look at his overall game because after hitting .353 in April he’s hit a mere .256. He’s a legit .290 hitter though, so don’t expect his average to fall much further.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Daily Joust: The Weekend Ahead

It’s Friday, and that means a couple of things. First, the weekend is nearly upon us (thank goodness). Second, it’s time to get your drink on. Third, it’s time to get ready for your weekend of fantasy baseball  with DailyJoust.com.

Today, I’ll give some advice on how you might choose to fill out your daily fantasy baseball lineup for Friday or Saturday.

HITTERS – FRIDAY

Phillies vs. Kyle Lohse: Look at the numbers some of the Phillies’ batters have put up against Lohse, they are pretty staggering – Juan Pierre (.500), Ty Wigginton (.533), Brian Schneider (.308), Hunter Pence (.317) and Placido Polanco (.357). All of that doesn’t include Ryan Howard (.500) and Jim Thome (.400) who aren’t active. Moreover, the entire Phillies roster has hit .299 against Lohse.

Carlos Pena vs. Jon Lester: In two games as a leadoff man Pena is hitting .375 with a homer, three runs an a .545 OBP. He’ll look to keep the good times rolling Friday when he takes on Jon Lester, a pitcher that he has hit hard to the tune of five homers, 13 RBI an a 1.086 OPS in 37 at-bats.

Ichiro Suzuki vs. Ervin Santana: Hitting just .283 on the season, Ichiro is no longer the dominating force he once was. Still, the guy is no stranger to the base hit and given that he faces Santana, who he is hitting .350 against in 80 at-bats (big time sample size), you have to feel pretty good about his odds. Speaking of something having to do with odds, how about this oddity – Ichiro has tried to steal off Santana nine times and he’s never been successful.

PITCHERS – FRIDAY

Anthony Bass vs. Mets: The Metropolitans are hitting .259 with a mere 26 homers and  187 runs scored (the homer total is second lowest in the NL and they’ve scored three runs more than the Giants which should tell you how potent their offense isn’t). Bass has a 2.89 ERA and 1.15 WHIP on the season which includes a total of four runs allowed in his last three starts.

Yovani Gallardo vs. D’backs: Gallardo is on a roll having gone 3-straight outings of six innings while allowing two or fewer runs. He’s also scaled back the long ball having allowed just one in eight starts.  Friday he faces a D’backs club that he has owned in his career going 5-0 with a 1.20 ERA, 0.93 WHIP and 32 Ks in 30 innings.

Tim Hudson vs Nationals: Since returning to the field all that Hudson has done is pitch like, Tim Hudson. In five starts he is 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA and 1.19 WHIP, an in four of his outings he’s allowed two or fewer runs. He faces a Washington club that used to be the Expos (remember that?) Friday. In 23 starts against the franchise he has been phenomenal going 14-3 with a 2.05 ERA an a 1.09 WHIP.

HITTERS – SATURDAY

Melky Cabrera vs. Mark Buehrle: I admit it. I was apparently wrong about Melky Cabrera. Watching him on a daily basis, all the guy does is hit. Currently batting .362 on his way to leading baseball in hits (67) there is virtually no way he won’t go off Saturday. Cabrera is 17-for-27 against Buehrle for a .630 average. Flipping amazing.

Alex Rodriguez vs. Bartolo Colon: Flipping amazing #2. A-Rod is hitting .468 against Colon over 47 at-bats. He’s not rapping out singles either as his 22 hits have produced six doubles, a triple an eight homers leading to 17 RBI. The guy has a 1.149, not OPS but SLG mark, against Colon (his OPS is 1.630).

Luke Scott vs. Josh Beckett: Scott is having a strong power season with eight homers and 31 RBI, though his average is languishing down at .243. Perhaps seeing Beckett on the hill will help him to continue his productive efforts as he has 10 hits in 24 at-bats (.417) including three homers and seven RBI.

PITCHERS – SATURDAY

Mike Minor vs. Nationals: This one is as much a hunch as anything else. Look, I know his ERA is 6.96 and his WHIP 1.45, but I’m telling you, the parts are far greater than the sum here. In 53 innings this season he has 48 Ks. In 15.2 innings against the Nats in his career he has 16 Ks, has issued just five walks, and has a 1.28 WHIP. Risky as all hell, but sooner or later he is going to have a gem.

Bud Norris vs. Dodgers: Over his last four starts Norris is 4-0 with a 0.35 ERA and 0.92 WHIP while he’s racked up 29 Ks in 26 innings as perhaps the hottest pitcher in baseball (people might be a bit slow to wake up to that fact if we can judge by the numbers over at Fleaflicker). The Saturday matchup affords him a Dodgers club that he has faced five times leading to some dominating numbers as well (2.67 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 28 Ks in 30.1 innings with a .183 BAA). Lock and load.

Jerome Williams vs. Mariners: It’s almost as simple as – if a guy is facing the Mariners you can have confidence starting him. Williams has had success in two starts against the Mariners with a 3.00 ERA and 0,73 WHIP over 15 innings, and there’s no reason to think he won’t keep the good times rolling with another solid effort.

CONTESTS

I just gave you some rather substantial advice on how you could have success this weekend, right? Sign up for the Beat Ray Promotion – it will be on the $50 freeroll this week. Go to the BaseballGuys/DailyJoust landing page, sign up for the $50 Free Roll, and have at it.

Daily Joust – Wk 4: Did We Learn Anything?

Monday’s I will be taking a look at the fantasy baseball game by breaking down players who have produced noteworthy performances. This week it’s all about hot starting batters and pitchers – can they keep it up?
To get your daily fantasy baseball fix make sure you head over to DailyJoust.com to set your salary cap club.

GAINERS OF THE WEEK

R.A. Dickey (+72 to $258K in the DailyJoust salary)
Dickey had a rough start on April 18th (8 ER in 4.1 IP), but in his other three starts he’s posted a quality start each time out allowing a total of four runs. Overall his ratios aren’t that bad consider that one abysmal start (4.44 ERA, 1.36 WHIP), but it should be pointed out that he’s allowed at least one homer in each of his four starts and his total of six longs balls allowed is already a third of the way to his total of 18 allowed last year.

Alex Gonzalez (+24, $89K)
He is what he is. That means Alex is a middling average producer with no stolen base speed and decent pop in his bat. Hitting .254, seven points above his career mark, Gonzalez has also not stolen a base (shocker since he has only six the past five years. Alas, there is that power. With four homers and 12 RBI through 19 games for the Brewers he’s well on pace to better his totals of 15 and 56 from last season with a shot at numbers akin to his 2010 effort (23 HR, 88 RBI).

Carlos Gonzalez (+17, $120K)
Come on, were you really worried? I know that some of you were, you know who you are, so hopefully his huge effort last week will put those concerns to bed. Over his last six games CarGo has four homers, 11 RBI, seven runs scored and two steals. All of a sudden he is hitting .288 with four homers/steals, 16 RBI/runs in just 18 games of action. Elite thy name is Gonzalez.

Ramon Hernandez (+26, $105K)
A big couple of games for the aging catcher leave him with two homers, six RBI and three runs scored in his last three games. Alas, he’s still hitting a measly .241 on the year and he hasn’t walked once in 15 games. Really Ramon, not one walk? He can still be a productive bat when he plays, but the last three years he hasn’t played 100 games once. If not for Willin Rosario struggling so much (.194 with 12 Ks in 31 at-bats) Ramon might already be losing playing time.

Mike Minor (+76 to $293K)
In three games since giving up six runs in his first outing, Minor has gone 2-0 while allowing four runs on his way to three quality starts. Minor also has a 15:1 K/BB ratio in those three starts showing everyone why he was taken 7th overall in the 2009 draft by the Braves. He’s not quite on par with Brandon Beachy, but Minor’s star is certainly on the upswing.

Vance Worley (+68, $287K)
Worley has gone at least six innings in all four of his starts, an only one time has he allowed more than a run (he gave up four runs to the Mets in six innings). Stung by the long ball, he’s allowed four in four starts after giving up just 10 last season, Worley also has 27 punch outs in just 25 innings of work.

LOSERS OF THE WEEK

Chase Headley (-30, $80K)
Come on, you knew he wasn’t going to be able to keep up the pace. Over his last 10 games he has no homers and just two RBI, but on the year he has still produced 14 RBI and an .875 OPS. He has his issues, not the least of which being a ballpark that is going to keep his power numbers down, but overall this has been a pretty impressive start for Headley (see that .394 OBP).

Jason Heyward (-47, $67K)
With eight steals in 22 starts Heyward looks like a big time base stealing thief. Unfortunately, no one has ever thought of him in that light. Maybe 20-25 steals, but not 40+ like his early season base certainly suggests. Heyward has also gone deep just twice in 22 games, and his performance over his last 10 outings, other than the four steals, has left a lot to be desired (only seven hits, three RBI and four runs scored). Still, a heartening start.

Bud Norris (-53, $168K)
Eleven runs allowed in two outings will get everyone up in arms about your outlook. At the same time, Norris still had 12 Ks in those 11.2 innings, and four walks in that time isn’t an obnoxious number (seems like people over at Fleaflicker are plenty nervous though, just look at that ownership rate). The fact is, he just got pounded with his pitches in the strike zone leading to 19 hits. On the year he still has 22 Ks and just eight walks in 24.2 innings, solid numbers the both of them, and there is no way he’s going to allow four homers every two times he takes the hill.

Jose Tabata (-30, $55K)
Through 65 at-bats he has no homers and two runs scored. He’s also been caught on half of his six steal attempts. At the same time there has been some light at the end of the proverbial tunnel as he has raised his average from .111 to .231 over the last seven games as he has produced 11 hits. He still has an awful long way to go to get back to being the player who hit .299 with 19 steals in just 102 games in 2010.

Randy Wolf (-33, $165K)
Wolf was beat around for 11 runs in his first two outings, so allowing a mere six runs in his last two forays onto the bump is clearly progress. At best a 7.17 ERA, 1.78 WHIP and 1.44 K/BB ratio says that Wolf should not be in your starting lineup. At worst it might be time to cut Wolf loose and replace him with someone else that at least won’t kill your ratios while he tries to figure out what ails him.

DAILY CONTEST

Today you can sign up for the King Arthur’s $50 Free Roll on DailyJoust. No entry free is required to get a chance to play the game and earn your free chance to take home part of the $50 prize pool. All games that start at 7:05 PM EDT or later are open to add players to your daily fantasy baseball squad. So get over to DailyJoust, put together your one day lineup, and get ready to win some free $.

By Ray Flowers

Mailbag: April 26, 2012

I’m Ray Flowers, co-host of The Drive on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio. Each week I’ll be here answering questions that have been sent to me at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

I have Neil Walker at 2b & Jemile Weeks at MI. Omar Infante still available on the waiver-wire. Do I grab Omar over NW or JW?
– @DadofReilly

Walker is hitting only .224 with no homers and five RBI through 17 games, a dreadful start for a guy who came into the season with a fair amount of hype. To be fair we’re only talking about 58 at-bats, and Walker does have 12 hits in his last 10 games, but disappointing is certainly a word I would use to describe a guy coming off a 83 RBI, 76 run campaign who has started like this. Weeks has been just as bad hitting a mere .200 with a pathetic .253 OBP, but he does have two homers, three steals and nine runs scored, so he hasn’t been an unmitigated disaster (Week’s brother, Rickie, has been pretty unimpressive since the start of last season. For more see Fact of the Day, April 25thBaseballGuys.com). At the same time, I always felt that Jemile was getting too much love in fantasy circles heading into the 2012 season.

Infante continues to act like he thinks he is Robinson Cano. Through a mere 13 games Infante is hitting .313 with five home runs. Infante is a .275 career hitter, and he hit .305 in 2009 and .321 in 2010, so it’s possible he could bat .300 this season, though I still consider it unlikely. As for the power, there is no, none, nada, chance that the power display will continue. This is not a Jose Bautista breakout we are witnessing. Infante has one season, and he started playing in the majors in 2002, with more than nine homers (he hit 16 back in 2004). Per 162 games in his career, a career that has lasted long enough for him to accrue over 3,200 big league at-bats, Infante has averaged 10 homers. He’s already halfway to that average — in 13 games thanks to a four times increase in his HR/F rate (it’s currently at 20.8 percent versus a career mark of 5.2 percent).

Given how hot he has been, there are very few fantasy baseball leagues out there in which Infante should be on waivers considering he has been the third most productive second base eligible player per contest according to Fleaflicker. That said, he’s got no shot at ll of sustaining his unbelievable start. If you wanted to move on from either of your current players I would suggest dropping Walker because his skill set more closely matches that of Infante (Weeks has game changing speed). I’m not saying I’d rather have Infante for the course of the season over Walker, but there is no denying that right now Infante is the more appealing option.

Drop Bud Norris for Chad Billingsley or Chris Capuano? Or keep the faith?
– @edcolby

Norris is being bailed on by a lot of people who see a 5.84 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP. You should look beyond those numbers to see the following. (1) His 8.03 K/9 rate is impressive. (2) His 2.92 BB/9 mark is a batter below his career level. (3) His 0.97 GB/FB ratio is just off his career rate of 1.02. Still, his HR/FB ratio is way up leading to 1.82 homers per nine innings. That number will not continue (just look at his mark the past two seasons – 1.05 and 1.16). The truth of the matter is that Norris has pitched way better than his fantasy ratios would suggest.

Billingsley came out on fire, and it appears that he is well on his way to putting behind him that down 2011 campaign (11-11, 4.21 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 152 Ks). The biggest key for Billingsley in the early going, the main reason he has a 3.04 ERA and 0.93 WHIP through four starts, is the fact that he just isn’t beating himself. A guy who walks about 3.9 batters per nine innings for his career, that mark currently sits at 1.90. Guys just don’t drop two batters off their BB/9 mark after being at another level for five years, but it’s still encouraging to see him throwing more strikes. At the same time, Billingsley’s current 7.23 K/9 mark would actually be a six year low, so maybe he’s changed his approach a wee bit. It’s also a pretty good bet that Chad won’t be able to keep batters to a .195 average (.249 for his career) once the innings start to pile up.

Capuano is slowly starting to get some love in the fantasy game. A huge injury risk since the virtually the day he was drafted, here are Capuano’s innings pitched totals the past five years: 150, zero, zero, 66 and 186. Yeah, he’s one risky cat to own. Capuano does have solid K potential (7.83 per nine this year, 8.13 last season), pitches in a solid pitchers park in Los Angeles (he also gets to make starts in pitcher havens such as San Diego and San Francisco), and he’s a cheap option that is likely still on many a waiver-wire even with his solid start (2-0, 3.52 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 20 Ks in 23 IP).

I’m taking Billingsley knowing full well that he has no chance of keeping up his current pace. So why suggest adding the Dodgers’ righty then? Consistency (something Capuano certainly can’t offer). Billingsley takes the ball every five days and gives his team a chance to win more times than not. Norris has a “bigger” arm, but he’s also inconsistent and pitches for a team that might struggle to provide him with enough run support for him to reach double-digits in victories.

Should I drop Kelly Johnson to sign Jose Altuve?
– @theYankeeHajny

Johnson hit .222 last year and has started out this year with a .231 average through 17 games so I get the concern. At the same time, Johnson has hit 20 homers with 75 runs scored and 13 steals each of the past two years. Those aren’t fantastic numbers but they are still numbers that only one second sacker have reached each of the past two years. A guy like that, even with a potential batting average deficiency, shouldn’t be given up on lightly (it should be pointed out that Johnson does have a .259 career average and that he hit .284 as recently as 2010).

Altuve has been hot with the twig hitting .377 through 69 at-bats. However, let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. First, Altuve isn’t going to hit the ball into the seats (three homers in 290 career at-bats), which also will likely lead to a poor RBI total for an every week starter in most mixed leagues. Second, though speedy, he’s only had one effort of 30 steals and he has 11 in 75 big league games. He could easily steal 20 bases this year, he already has four, but his not going to light up the steals category. Third, and I hate to break it to you all, but he’s not a great hitter. Having completely skipped Triple-A, Altuve has only 290 at-bats above Double-A, and that concerns me a bit given that he isn’t exactly the most patient hitter in the world, and that could drain his batting average a bit when he gets into a funk. It’s also a pretty fair guess that his current .431 BABIP will likely regress by a .100 or so points, and that will cause his batting average to dip accordingly.

Give me Johnson over the slap it and run Altuve, but make sure you have other hitters on your club who can cover the poor average you are likely to receive from Johnson.

I trade Adrian Gonzalez and Nelson Cruz for Albert Pujols and Hanley Ramirez. Do it?
– @bearnvegas

Everyone, let’s stop the panic with Pujols. Some facts. In every season of his career he’s finished the year hitting at least .299 with 34 homers, 99 RBI and 99 runs scored. Right now he’s hitting .222-0-4-6. Assuming he reaches his “worst” totals, numbers he has reached in each of the past 11 seasons, that means from this point forward that he is going to blast 34 homer with 94 RBI and 93 runs scored. And those numbers would merely equal his career worsts. As for the batting average, assuming 574 at-bats (his seasonal average the first nine years), Pujols would hit .311 the rest of the season. Despite the slow start, I think all of those targets are fair which leads me to the position that I would still prefer Pujols to AGone (.303-2-13-9).

Cruz can be a beast, but he’s always seemingly hurt (the last three seasons he has averaged just 120 games a season which dings his value substantially). He’s also hit under .265 in two of his last three seasons. There are also questions about just how much running he will be allowed to do given his continued issues with his wheels (he’s stolen 10 bases in his last 143 games after stealing 37 bases in 2009-10). Hanley is hitting just .238, and coming off shoulder surgery, but he qualifies at shortstop and second base, and that’s huge. He’s also gone deep four times while stealing four bases, a pace that would lead to a 35/35 season if he were to maintain it (obviously that’s doubtful).

Get Pujols and HanRam. AGone and Cruz should not be dealt to anyone lightly, but this is a pretty impressive return.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive on Sirius 210 and XM 87 from 5-8 PM EDT, Monday through Friday. 

Can You Wait on Pitching?

On Sunday night on Livin’ the Fantasy on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio, we did a mock draft. Given that I’ve done so many mock drafts, an it gets old dominating every time (I’m so modest), I thought I would change things up an implement a crazy plan to see if I could do something highly unconventional (to say the least), and still put together a squad to be feared. Before I get to how my team turned out, here are the rules.

5×5 scoring
Mixed League
12 teams
Hitters: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT
Pitcher: Any nine

Drafting out of the nine hole, I decided to see what would happen if I started out taking 5-straight outfielders. Check out the powerhouse outfield I was able to assemble in the first five rounds, it’s as impressive a unit as you’ll come across – Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton and Shane Victorino. Down Crawford for his poor performance in 2011, and Upton for his poor batting average, but that’s as dynamic a group of five outfielders you could possibly assemble. All five men are going 15/15 in 2012 if they are healthy, and it’s possible, even if not probable, that all five could go 20/20.

You’re saying to yourself – well that’s great Ray but your team is going to stink since you took this tact at the draft table. My reply is hogwash. Let’s take a look at my offensive squad.

C: Yadier Molina, Chris Iannetta
1B: Mark Reynolds
2B: Howie Kendrick
3B: Pablo Sandoval
MI/CI: Daniel Murphy, Martin Prado
OF: Carlos Gonzalez, Andrew McCutchen, Carl Crawford, B.J. Upton, Shane Victorino
UT: Alex Rios

I have a couple of average killers in Upton, Reynolds an Iannetta, but I was able to add Prado who should bounce back to hit .300 (see his Player Profile) and Daniel Murphy (see his Player Profile) to help offset those guys (not to mention .300 types like Sandoval, Kendrick and CarGo that I also rostered). I’ve also got positional flexibility with the following guys qualifying in at least two spots: Reynolds, Kendrick, Murphy and Prado. I really like this unit, and if a guy like Alex Rios bounces back like I hope/expect (see his Player Profile) then this unit will be terrific.

OK, so my offense rocked, but what about my pitching? This is where PART II of my plan came into being. Not only did I take five outfielders with my first five picks, I waited until the 14th round to take my first pitcher (I took my last offensive player, my second catcher, in round 23, but from rounds 14-22 it was pitcher-rama). So my staff must be awful waiting that long to grab arms right? You be the judge.

Brandon Morrow
Ryan Madson
Cory Luebke
Kenley Jansen
Joe Nathan
Ryan Dempster
Frank Francisco
Ricky Nolasco
Bud Norris

OK my ratios may not be great, but I three closers (Madson, Nathan and Francisco) who could give me 90 saves. I also grabbed Jansen who might be one of the five most electric pitchers in baseball. If he closes 30 saves will happen. If he serves as a setup man in Los Angeles he might lead all relievers in baseball in strikeouts. Either way, this is an impressive foursome out of the bullpen (since I waited so long on starters I thought it would make sense to try and build a strong group of relievers to challenge for the lead in saves and to also help keep my ratios in check).

As for my starters, again, their ratios may not impress. But I ask you this – how many other teams in the league have five starters who appear to be well on their way to at least 150 strikeouts? Look at these strikeout totals from last year: Morrow (203), Dempster (191), Luebke (154 in 139.2 IP), Nolasco (148) and Norris (176). Remember that I didn’t take a single hurler until the 14th round. I’ll take a staff with power arms like this almost every day of the week.

Could a team like this, heck could this team, win a championship? I certainly think it could. I also hope that this little off kilter operation will help to point out that you don’t have to, no matter what anyone says, jump into the pitcher hopper early in drafts (in this draft pitchers went way too early with seven taken in the first 28 picks). Remember, I would still, in an actual draft, have six or seven bench rounds to bolster my pitching staff, and that opportunity to build more depth would certainly provide me plenty of chances to grab some arms that could bring me solid performances in 2012. It may have not come about in a conventional manner, but I like the way this squad turned out. What about you?

 DRAFT RESULTS

By Ray Flowers

Dumpster Diving: Five Underrated Players in 2012

Matt Bonini shares some of his thoughts with the readers.

Anyone can make selections in rounds 1-15 in a fantasy baseball draft (pull up a top-200 player list and you can field a decent team, barring major injury or “Carl Crawford-like” campaigns). But when all the Pujols’, Jeter’s, Upton’s, and Hamels’ fly off the board, many drafters go into an indifferent, almost passive mindset. Maybe it’s the sense of unfamiliarity with the remaining names on the board, or the lack eye-popping numbers that players left in the draft tend to have. Whatever the reason may be, rounds 15 and on (or what I like to call “Garbage Time”) can be what differentiates a championship team from the Chicago Cubs….I mean… uh… an underachieving team.

Alex Cobb
Cobb comes into 2012 an unheralded prospect partly because of a bizarre season-ending rib injury, and partly because of the highly proficient Rays farm system. A prime example would be the emergence of super-prospect Matt Moore overshadowing what Cobb did during the 2011 regular season. Cobb’s 2011 cameo appearance drew many parallels to what Jeremy Hellickson and David Price did in their first respective tours for the Rays. Cobb posted a 3.42 ERA in nine starts in 2011. If you remove his last start against Oakland in which he was hampered by that rib injury (five earned runs in 4.1 innings), he would have finished with just a 2.79 ERA. Only giving up three homers through 52.2 innings of work isn’t too shabby either, which aligns pretty accurately with his HR/9 in the minors (0.7).

Bud Norris
Go grab yourself a Bud – Bud Norris. A Houston product that goes under the radar because of his team, Norris has shown signs of greatness over his short career. With a K/9 rate of 8.85 over his past two seasons, Norris finds himself among an elite group of starters in the punch-out department. The Houston offense and a less than great WHIP (1.33) will likely keep fantasy managers at bay until much later in the draft, putting a smart manager in a position grab some late round value. Normally caution is warranted with a Minute Maid pitcher but, with the number of strikeouts he gets, taking a shot seems warranted.

Jason Kipnis
Kipnis made quite a bit of noise when he smashed six home runs in ten games a week after he was called up from Triple-A Columbus (three of them coming against the Red Sox). He hit a bit of a snag after a hamstring injury sidelined him for nearly the whole month of August. Although it appeared as if he was never able to fully revive his power numbers (one home run in 18 games upon his return from injury), he was still able to consistently reach base (four multi-hit games and a near .900 OPS), establishing himself as a staple atop the Indians lineup. Kipnis also has the ability to swipe a handful of bags, making him a solid source of runs and stolen bases as well. With everyone getting on the Brett Lawrie and Dustin Ackley bandwagons, waiting to take Kipnis at a much later part of the draft could result in better value for your club.

J.D. Martinez
If there’s one person in Houston who thoroughly enjoyed the dive-bomb season Houston had it would be Martinez. After the Astros jumped ship by unloading Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn, Martinez catapulted to the bigs after posting a .342/.407/.551 line with 43 homers over 298 minor league games. If there is one thing that we can say for sure about Martinez, it’s that he has performed at every level, even though he doesn’t have a single at-bat in Triple-A. In just 208 at-bats at the major league level, he clubbed six homers and drove in an impressive 35 runs. Don’t be too bashful on the young Astros talent simply because he’ll be in the middle of the depressing Astros’ order. Look for Martinez to deliver some much needed pop to one of the worst lineups in baseball next season, giving Houston fans a small ray of hope (or is it shooting star?) for the future.

Zach Cozart
The emergence of Cozart means Cincinnati fans can kiss the Paul Janish era goodbye. Run production should be rampant in Cincinnati with the likes of Joey Votto and Brandon Phillips batting behind him (Cozart hit second in 10 of the 11 games he played with the Reds). In his 2010 Triple-A campaign, Cozart belted 17 home runs to go along with 67 RBI and 30 steals. While his .255 BA wasn’t anything to write home about, his combination of speed and power cannot be ignored. Consider his season ending elbow injury a fantasy blessing, as he will slide under the radar in most drafts because of his lack of exposure last year. At the ripe age of 26 and virtually no roadblocks in his way, expect Cozart to make an impact during the 2012 season.

By Matt Bonini

Mailbag: August 2, 2011

You asked at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account so I felt compelled to give a few thoughts.

Heard anything from scouts/injury experts re: James Shields getting torched?
– @rlawealth

Sample size people.

Last time out Shields was blasted by the A’s for 12 hits and 10 runs causing his season long ERA to rise a half a run. Two starts before that Shields allowed six runs to the Red Sox over six innings of work. So Shields must be injured or simply out of gas, right? I don’t think that is the only logical position to take here. Despite the two beatings he has taken of late, consider the following.

(1) Shields has an ERA of 3.03. His career mark is 4.08 and he has never posted a mark under 3.56.

(2) Shields has a 1.07 WHIP. His career mark is 1.25 and he has never posted a mark under 1.11.

(3) Shields has an 8.59 K/9 rate. His career mark is 7.55 and he’s never posted a mark above 8.28.

Could it just be that a regression to the mean is underway here? Even with getting bombed twice of late, he’s still on pace to set career bests in numerous categories. Not just that, he’s right in line with career norms in a handful of other categories.

2011: 1.21 GB/FB, 18.3 percent LD-rate, 10.9 HR/F
Career: 1.15 GB/FB, 18.9 percent LD-rate, 11.6 HR/F

Is Shields hurt? That’s possible though I’ve seen nothing to suggest it. Is he wearing down? That seems unlikely given that he has thrown at least 200-innings each of the past four years. My bet is that sooner or later numbers tend to even out, and it just seems like that might be happening with Shields.

Drop Anibal Sanchez for Derrek Lee? I’m 40+ in IP.
– @SpecialFNK

Sanchez has been really strong this year. His 3.74 ERA matches his career mark, while he’s knocked off a tenth in the WHIP category (1.26). More impressively he’s jacked up his K-rate two batters to an impressive 9.37 per nine while lowering his BB-rate by a full batter from 3.63 in his career to 2.62 this season. He’s pitched better than anyone could have expected and given his owners some wonderful production. However, he has only six wins on the year. He’s also allowed four earned in his last two starts and four times in five he has allowed four or more. He’s also failed to last more than five innings in three of his last six starts. Perhaps the toll of the long season is catching up to him, or maybe things are just leveling out after his tremendous start?

Lee has long been one of the more consistent bats first base, even if he’s only on a couple of occasions been an elite performer. Since 2000, in every season of at least 500 plate appearances, Lee has hit 19 homers, drive in 70 runs and scored 70 times. Add in that he has hit at least .286 in five of the past six years, and you have yourself one solid corner infield option in mixed leagues. This season has been a rough for for Lee though, he’s posted a slash line of .249/.304/.423 versus his career levels of .281/.364/.494, but things have turned of late. Not only did he bash two long balls in his first game as a Pirate, Lee has gone deep four times with 10 RBI in six games and over his last 26 games he has eight homers and 22 RBI. Clearly he is locked in at the moment.

Would I make this move? It all depends on your needs. I have no issue with the move, the players seem to be headed in different directions, you’re pushing your innings pitched limit, and it seems like you could use an offensive boost.

Rick Porcello or Mat Latos rest of this year?
– @BennetTaub

Porcello is winning, and people notice that. Over his last five starts he is 5-0, and not once in that span has he allowed more than three earned runs. Of course, the previous three starts he allowed 18 runs in 11. innings so it’s not like his consistency is his middle name. I also look at his yearly numbers and see a terrible K-rate (5.35 per nine), middling ratios (4.50 ERA and 1.37 WHIP), and think to myself that this guy is a better real world pitcher than fantasy option at this stage of his development.

Latos has slightly better ratios on the year (4.10 ERA, 1.34 WHIP), and his K/9 rate of 8.49 is near elite. Latos has not been as good as Porcello the last month, but the last time he allowed more than four earned runs in a game was April 16th, and he’s allowed three or fewer earned runs in each of his last six starts and 10 of 12 starts.

I’d go with Latos. He’s been more consistent on the year and has a massive advantage in the K-category. Of course, if you are targeting wins, more about that below by the way, I understand the desire to go with Porcello who has as many victories in his last five outings as Latos has all season with the Padres.

Would you drop Bud Norris for Derek Holland? Similar pitcher, worried about Astros.
– @TheJeffShelton

The Astros’ offense stinks, and that will certainly make it more difficult on any of their arms to pick up victories. However, as we all know, wins are impossible to predict. I mean, how is it possible that Jake Arrieta (5.05 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) has 10 victories while Josh Beckett (2.17 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) has nine.

Norris has delivered this year with nearly a strikeout per inning (130 in 135 frames), while posting a solid ERA (3.47) and a passable WHIP (1.32). He also doesn’t seem to be slowing too much as he has allowed one or zero earned runs in five of his last 10 starts. There is some concern about his innings count, he has never tossed more than 175.2 innings, but his performance on the hill looks solid for now.

Holland is another young, hard throwing young Texan arm. He cannot match the strikeout exploits of Norris, his K/9 mark is 6.67, but he does a solid job of limiting the walks (2.98 per nine, about a half batter better than Norris). Like Norris he is pitching well of late. Moreover, he’s been phenomenal over his last five starts. Sure he got lit up for seven runs on July 20th, but in the other four outings he hasn’t allowed a single earned run as he has tossed three complete game shutouts.

Holland does have better offensive support, and is on an extreme roll right now, so making the move from the righty to the lefty isn’t something that I’m gonna give the thumbs down to.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 210 and XM 87.

MLB Mailbag: March 16, 2011

Photo By Loren Javier

I’m in a 10-team NL-only league. Which of the two sides in this deal would you prefer: Javier Vazquez ($16) or Marlon Byrd ($11) and Bud Norris ($3)?
– Jeff, Raleigh, North Carolina

An aging veteran hurler or, for virtually the same cost, a solid outfielder and an up and coming flame thrower who often has no idea where he is throwing the ball.

From 2000-09, Vazquez was the only pitcher in baseball who tossed at least 195 innings, with 10 wins and 150 strikeouts each season. That streak came to a crashing halt in 2010. He did win 10 games, but he tossed only 157.1 innings and punched out a mere 121 batters. Did he simply wear down from years of use?

In his career, Vazquez’s average fastball has been 91 mph, but last year that number dropped to 88.7. Less heat equaled less Ks and his K/9 rate of 6.92 was more than a full batter below his career rate of 8.07. Last year was also the first time the mark was below 8.00 since 2004. Javier also had a walk rate of 3.72, his first season with a mark over 3.00 since, get this, the 20th century (1999). On the plus side he is back in the NL where he owns a career ERA of 4.02 with a WHIP of 1.24. He’s also going to pitch his home games in a park that helps to hold down the homers, an important factor for a hurler who has allowed 1.20 HR/9 in his career. Will the return to the Senior Circuit, combined with the better home ball yard, be enough to return him to glory?

Byrd isn’t worthy of being leaned on mixed leagues, but he is just the type of performer that helps to win league specific setups. Only once in his five seasons of at least 400 at-bats has he hit more than 12 homers, knocked in more than 70 runs or scored more than 70 times, but over the last four seasons an average Byrd season has produced a 5×5 line of .294-13-70-70-6. Moreover, the last four years he has never hit below .283. There could be some concern about everyday playing time if everyone stays healthy in the Cubs’ outfield, but there isn’t much doubt that if Byrd is given 500 at-bats that he will once again be a solid producer, even if none of his numbers jump off the page.

As for Bud Norris, I’ve already written about his outlook for 2011 in Which Pitchers Should I Target? Let me sum up my thoughts – he throws gas  (he was 10th in baseball last year in K/9 amongst hurlers who tossed 100-innings at 9.25), batters can’t hit him when he is on (.235 BAA in the second half), but he can lose the strike zone as well as any hurler in the league (4.51 BB/9). There is concern about his secondary stuff which might lead to him eventually being moved to the bullpen, and he hasn’t looked good in spring (10.29 ERA, 1.57 WHIP in three appearances), but that arm is dynamic – there just aren’t that many starters in the league who can legitimately rack up a strikeout per inning.

So which side “wins” here? The one with two players. Byrd isn’t an MVP candidate, but he is a solid, stable performer who can boost any NL-only offense. While Vazquez has history on his side, the depths he fell to last season, coupled with ongoing concerns about the mph on his fastball this spring (he’s still unable to reach 90 mph on most of his fastballs), point to him being nothing more than an average hurler, and a somewhat expensive one in this setup. I’d take a chance on the fire balling arm of Norris and the stable production of Byrd, and then go and spend the extra three dollars on another hurler.

I have a nine batters and Lester as my only starting pitcher. I was wondering if I should still be seeking out quality bats for backups or potential future keepers, or should I start grabbing quality pitching?
– Andrew, Topsham, Maine

The age old question…

I’m on record saying I’m in favor of waiting on pitching. In fact, I wrote an article about why, in many cases, it makes a lot of sense to let others dive into pitching early called Ready for the Journey? In that piece I delve into the 2010 season and look at all the hurlers who “failed” to live up to expectations, as well as highlighting those guys which came out of nowhere to have strong fantasy seasons. Of course, you could make up similar lists for offense, but the point is really this – pitchers’ performances tend to vary more from one season to the other than do hitters. Also, pitchers are at a much higher risk of a catastrophic injury ending their season (Adam Wainwright) than are hitters. Therefore, in a vacuum, it often makes more sense to go for the elite hitters early – there will always be pitchers available later.

Think of it this way.

There are five starters and 30 major league teams. That’s 150 starters that can be drafted. Each team also has a closer and a setup man that probably should be drafted in standard leagues. That’s another 60 pitchers. Add those numbers together and we can say there are 210 pitchers that probably shouldn’t scare the hell out of you on draft day. If you are in a 12 team league that starts nine pitchers, then there will be 108 pitchers active in any week. Now, tell me, do you think if there are 210 pitchers who are decent, but only 108 who are starting in a fantasy league at any one time (just over 51 percent of the hurlers mentioned), that you should be able to put together a decent pitching staff if you wait on hurlers?

I’m not sticking to this “plan” slavishly in any draft. In general, it makes a lot of sense to have one anchor starting pitcher and one reliever in your first 10 selections in a 12 team draft. If that makes you nervous you can go with two starters and a reliever in your first 10 picks. At the same time, there have been many a draft where I came out of the first 10 rounds with one hurler.

The answer to the question is that there is no answer that suffices in all situations. Honestly, it’s about performance, risk and value. If your league is going super heavy early on pitching you can either (a) jump into the mix or (b) build a juggernaut on offense. An intimate understanding of the player pool is key here as it will help you to know when you simply must get involved in the hurler run. To help you to understand what point that might be, I’d direct you to The Strikeout: Starters, as well as the above linked to piece (Which Pitchers Should I Target?) on how to properly evaluate pitchers in the fantasy game.

Ray Flowers can be heard daily on Sirius/XM Radio on The Fantasy Drive, 5-8 PM Eastern, on Sirius 211 and XM 147. Ray’s minute to minute musings can be located at the BaseballGuys’ Twitter account.

Which Pitchers Should I Target?

Photo by Steven Boyd

I’m continually asked a few questions over and over again.

What should my draft strategy be?
Which “sleepers” should I target late in drafts?
Which setup man will become a closer this season?
How can you give away such great information for free?
How is it possible that you’re still single?

I always have answers for those questions, at least the first four anyway, but there is a sixth question that I get all the time as well – which pitchers should I target on draft day after the top mound aces are off the board? That’s what I’m going to breakdown in this entry.

I’ve already touched on this topic previously, so I’ll quickly highlight those pieces before digging a bit deeper today.

The Strikeout: Relievers
This article breaks down the top relievers in 2010 based on K/9 marks.

The Strikeout: Starters
This article breaks down the top starters in 2010 based on K/9 marks while also delving a bit deeper by adding into the mix how a pitchers’ walk rate also needs to be looked at as well.

Here is an excerpt from that piece.

The following group of pitchers are those starters you should target, ones with a K/9 of 7.00 and a K/BB above 2.75 last season (min. 100 IP). There were only 26 such hurlers in 2010 (clink on the link to the piece to find out who they are).

How to Evaluate Relievers
This article gives some hints as to what type of skills you should look at when deciding which bullpen arms to roster.

Here is an excerpt from that piece.

Amongst relievers that tossed 60-innings last year, which pitchers racked up a K/9 mark over 7.50 with a BB/9 mark under 3.00? Clink on the link to the piece to find out who they are.

THE RULES

Here are the “rules” that I try follow when drafting pitchers.

STARTERS
Target at least a 6.50 K/9 mark.
Target a BB/9 mark below 3.30.

RELIEVERS
Target at least a 7.50 K/9 mark.
Target a BB/9 mark below 3.00.

There are certainly plenty of examples of pitchers who have success despite missing on one, or both, of those baselines, but if you’re asking me the optimal way to put together a pitching staff, then those are the marks I would be shooting for.

What does this mean in practical terms? It means that I would never reach for any of the following hurlers: Mark Buehrle, Rick Porcello, Carl Pavano, Doug Fister, Mike Pelfrey, Bronson Arroyo, Jeremy Guthrie, Dallas Braden, Fausto Carmona, R.A. Dickey, Trevor Cahill, Jon Garland, Derek Lowe or Randy Wells.

To be clear I’m not saying that there aren’t situations in which I would still call out these pitchers names – i.e. in a league specific scenario or very late in a mixed league draft – but there’s no chance I’m gonna target them to be one of my top four starters in a mixed league, and no, I don’t care how good they were last year.

At the other end of the spectrum here are some hurlers who I would look to call out at the end of a draft, even if they don’t seem to be as stable an option as the names I just listed. Remember, there will always be “average” guys on waivers in mixed leagues. I’m going to target high upside arms late, an if they flame out I’ll just grab one of those above guys to fill out my rotation.

Jorge de la Rosa: A dominating power hurler who has a a 8.95 K/9 mark since joining the Rockies in 2008, DLR’s issue is an inability to stay healthy and to locate his pitches at times. Given his K per inning rate the past three years, and the fact that he is a ground ball hurler, I’m willing to cut him a wee bit of slack even though his BB-rate is terrible at 4.12 per nine. Still, I’d rather take a shot on his ceiling than call out the name of a guy like Jon Garland.

Jhoulys Chacin: Like his Rockies’ teammate, Chacin dominated hitters with the K posting a 9.04 K/9 mark, but he also allowed far too many walks at 4.00 per nine. However, he also keeps the ball on the ground like DLR, and K’s plus grounders usually equals a lot of success – even in Colorado.

Bud Norris: This Astros’ hurler was 10th in baseball last year amongst pitchers who threw at least 100-innings with a 9.25 K/9 mark. He does come with a lot of risk though. First off, he often can’t throw strikes (4.51 walks per nine), and second he could always be moved back to the bullpen because he really doesn’t have very good secondary stuff. I’m still greatly intrigued by that power arm though.

Homer Bailey: A star prospect who was going to break through what, each of the last three years, it might finally be his time. Bailey posted a strong 8.26 K/9 mark last season with a 3.30 BB/9 rate, not to mention that he was able produce a 3.55 ERA an a 1.27 WHIP over his last 10 starts.

Jonathon Niese: I don’t think there will be many leagues this year where he will be taken before Pelfrey and Dickey, but I see no reason why that should be the case. Niese was really good last year until a final month meltdown when he wore out from his heavy workload (his ERA was 3.76 on Sept 18th before finishing at 4.20).

Chris Narveson: I’ve written about him before, but in case you missed it, did you realize that over his last 14 starts last year he had a 3.89 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and a 7.33 K/9 mark with a 2.67 BB/9 rate?

Travis Wood: Rookies who post a 7.54 K/9 rate and a 2.28 BB/9 mark should certainly grab your attention, especially when the back of their ball card says that they were a 2nd round draft pick hinting that it’s not unreasonable to expect there to be enough talent to sustain that level of production.

Let me repeat my oft-heard refrain: TARGET SKILLS AND NOT ROLES

In the long run you’ll end up ahead if you follow this mantra. You’ll just have to target the right skills and have the patience to allow things to develop.

By Ray Flowers