Buy Low: All-Star Edition, Pitchers

IMG_0244photo © 2010 U.S. Army Public Affairs Midwest | more info (via: Wylio)

In PART III of my three part look at players to Buy Low on, I’ll wrap up things by taking a look at starting pitchers. Here are five names I would suggest kicking the tires on. Maybe you can buy them at .70 cents on the dollar.

For those of you who missed it, here are the links to my Buy Low articles on Infielders and Outfielders.

Ryan Dempster: 6-6, 5.01 ERA, 102 Ks, 1.44 WHIP in 111.1 IP
First it was a horrible ERA, and now it’s back woes that have conspired to keep the value of Dempster down. Still, the ERA continues to come down. It was at 6.91 nine starts ago. It should continue to come tumble as his xFIP suggests it will. In fact, his current xFIP of 3.43 would be a career best while his FIP is 3.92, right in line with his marks the last two years (3.87 and 3.99). Dempster also has a K/9 rate of 8.25, an amongst pitchers who have thrown 95 innings this year, that’s 19th best in baseball. His BABIP also figures to come down. It’s currently at .326 after 7-straight years under .313. It also appears possible that he could be dealt to another club, and that certainly wouldn’t harm his outlook at all.

Ubaldo Jimenez: 4-8, 4.14 ERA, 95 Ks, 1.30 WHIP in 104.1 IP
On May 28th his ERA was 5.86. Since then he’s made eight starts with an ERA of 2.25. As a result of his recent run, he has allowed two or fewer runs in six of those eight games, his ERA is slowly moving back to the realm of the respectable. Even more telling with his work of late is the fact that he’s walked just 11 batters in those eight starts. As a result of that, and this is bound to surprise most, he’s current K/9 rate (8.19) and BB/9 rate (3.54) are better than his career averages (8.11 and 3.90), as is his FIP (3.46 compared to 3.57). Oh, and his xFIP is 3.59. Know what it was last year? Try 3.60. Is he “back?” Sure seems that way to me, though don’t expect a run to equal what he did in the first half last year.

Ted Lilly: 6-9, 4.79 ERA, 78 Ks, 1.29 WHIP in 107 IP
This is the one guy on this list that can be had on the cheap (he might even be on waivers in your league). I’ll be the first to admit that there isn’t considerable upside to be mined here, but even with his poor work this year he still has a better WHIP than Chris Carpenter (1.30), Matt Garza (1.34) and Madison Bumgarner (1.34). Lilly is apt to let you down, he’s allowed at least five earned runs in three of his last five starts, but over his last 10 starts the other seven times he has taken the hill have results in five games of two or fewer earned runs allowed. He hasn’t pitched appreciably different than he has the past three years (here are his xFIP numbers – 3.90, 3.95 and 3.99 this year), and his 3.55 K/BB ratio is a very strong number (it’s 13th in baseball amongst pitchers with at least 95 innings pitched). There are worse options for your final starting spot in mixed leagues.

Ervin Santana: 4-8, 3.89 ERA, 106 Ks, 1.24 WHIP in 125 IP
This one is all about record. Most people, for whatever reason, stick to the old adage that you can judge a pitcher by his win-loss record. Even those that don’t buy into this line of thought are still going to have a hard time getting past his 4-8 record. What you should see though is an ERA that is better than his career mark (4.34), a WHIP that is better than his career mark (1.31), a K/9 rate that is nearly a batter better than his mark the past two years (6.85 compared to 7.63 this year), and a three year low in his walk rate (2.59 per nine). The stuff is there, the results are there, it’s just that his record hasn’t obliged and followed along.

Max Scherzer: 10-4, 4.69 ERA, 96 Ks, 1.44 WHIP in 111.1 IP
Unlike the others on this list, Scherzer’s numbers look poor while his record looks sharp. There’s no denying that he has been a major letdown this year, but the arm is still dynamic which is why I’d suggest buying low (if you are running guys like Kevin Correia, Jason Hammel and Mike Leake out there, do yourself a favor an add Scherzer). Scherzer has actually improved his walk rate slightly, his 3.07 mark would be a three year low, and his current line drive rate is also slightly below his career 20.0 percent mark (his HR/F ratio is only up 0.4 points as well to 10.7 percent). A few less fly balls would help to even things out a bit, as would a few more Ks (his 7.76 mark is a batter below his 8.78 career level). Will he turn things around in the second half? I honestly don’t know, but I do know that I’ll take the chance on his right wing over others with similarly successful seasons to this point.

By Ray Flowers

Buy Low: All-Star Edition, Outfielders

Carl Crawfordphoto © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

A few days ago I posted my Buy Low options for the infield. Today, I continue my journey by moving on to the outfield where I’ll suggest purchasing guys which appears to be on their last legs but actually may not be.

Carl Crawford: .243-6-31-33-8 in 263 ABs
I’m going down with the ship. Back in January I championed Crawford in Pick Your Poison: Crawford or Tulo where I pointed out that in six of the past seven years Crawford was in the top-15 amongst all hitters in the fantasy game. The only time he missed was 2008 when he was injured. Clearly he has no shot of reaching that level in 2011, but he should be back on the field within a week (hamstring) with history  taunting us. Will you bite with the expectation that Crawford will return to being the disruptive force he has always been, or are you going to wallow in your wet socks and expect him to struggle like he did at the start of the year?

Jason Heyward: .226-9-22-31-5 in 230 ABs
Heyward has been one of the biggest disappointments in the game this season, and I’ve heard of people in 12 team leagues who have dealt him for players like Josh Willingham and Darwin Barney, or flat out released him. I certainly hope you weren’t one of those people. Heyward has been called out by the team and his teammates for being “soft” which has led to many in the fantasy game questioning his career path. Don’t be one of those people. I continue to say it, but let me repeat it – the young man, he’s just 21, has Hall of Fame talent. I’ll take a chance on skills like this anytime.

Alex Rios: .213-6-21-41-6 in 320 ABs
Ozzie Guillen has show remarkable patience with Rios be it because he is stubborn, or because he is looking at the facts. (1) Rios has hit at least 15 homers with 71 RBI, 63 runs and 15 steals each of the past five years. Only he and Bobby Abreu have done that. I’m NOT saying he gets there this season, but you don’t just throw out 5-straight seasons like that when a guy is only 31 years old. (2) His BB/K rate is better than his career average (0.62 to 0.40). His GB/FB ratio of 1.15 is an exact match for his career mark. His 17.4 percent LD-rate is down from his career level but it would still be a three year high. His BABIP is only .221, some .088 points below his career mark. Only once in his career did he finish a season below .300 and that was .273 in 2009. His HR/F mark is 5.5 and that would be a career low. Add that all up and a rebound certainly seems possible for a player who should still be in his prime.

Ichiro Suzuki: .270-1-23-46-23 in 374 ABs
In 10 seasons Ichiro has never failed to hit .300 with 200 hits and 25 steals. He’s gonna blow past the steals mark yet again, but the other two categories are in doubt (he is on pace for 180 hits). Ichiro has hit .323 in the second half in his career, and he’s going to need a push like that to get to .300. Given that he working on his best BB/K mark since 2002, he should have a shot. His current line drive rate is also a three year high, and he’s not hitting the ball in the air at all which should help (his fly ball rate would be his second worst, or in this case best, mark). A .354 BABIP producer, he’s only had one season in his career under .333. You think that his current.293 mark is gonna stay that low even as his age advances?

Jason Werth: .215-10-31-40-11 in 326 ABs
When you sign a deal that well in excess of $100 million dollar expectations will follow. Has he lived up to those expectations? The answer is a resounding no. He’s got a career worst LD-rate (16.0 percent), a career worst GB-rate (45.2 percent), a five year worst in the HR/F category (10.6 percent) and a career worst BABIP (.258). The two numbers really stick out though. Over the past five years Werth has always had a HR/F rate of at least 13.3 percent, and his career mark is 15.5. That’s substantially better than we’ve seen from him so far. Also, his BABIP is .323 in his career and has never been under .304 in a season. You really think he’s gonna undershoot that by .050 points this season? Werth is also on pace to produce 18 homers, 56 RBI, 72 runs and 20 steals this season. While that’s a far fry from his 2010 effort (27-85-106-13), considering that he can’t really perform any worse than he currently is has got to leave some hope that better days lay ahead, doesn’t it?

By Ray Flowers

Buy Low: All-Star Edition

Oakland Athletics catcher Kurt Suzuki (8)photo © 2011 Keith Allison | more info (via: Wylio)

Which players, who have stunk so far, could be in line for a strong second half? It’s a question I get all the time. So I’m going to spend some time in my next few articles talking about which players you should BUY for the second half. Today, the infield.

CATCHER
Kurt Suzuki: .225-7-22-25-2 in 275 ABs

Two things here. First, Suzuki has been pretty bad, so he’ll be cheap to acquire. Second, the guy plays almost every day, so even if he isn’t that talented a hitter his counting stats figure to be solid because he rarely sits. A full time player for three years, Suzuki is currently on pace for four year lows in homers, RBI, runs, average, OBP and SLG. At the same time his BB/K is the same as always and he’s actually operating at the second best line drive rate of his career at 19.2 percent. History says his BABIP should rise, it’s .272 for his career and with a 19.2 percent line drive rate his mark shouldn’t be a sickly .235. When it does, that average should creep upwards providing even more value.

FIRST BASE
Carlos Lee: .268-7-48-35-3 in 339 ABs
Lee is a solid veteran type that you could target to acquire on the cheap since his current owner would probably deal him for relatively little. History says power is coming, he’s hit at least 24 homers each year since 2000, and every one of his 12 seasons he’s had at least 80 RBI. I wouldn’t expect him to go homer crazy in the second half, but he’s never finished a season with a HR/F mark below 9.5 percent so it would stand to reason that his 5.1 percent mark would improve moving forward.

SECOND BASE
Dan Uggla: .185-15-34-43-1 in 340 ABs
Obviously you want to add Uggla, right? Well not according to some people. I will freely admit that a guy who is hitting .185 with an OBP (.257) that would be a poor batting average is a disaster. At the same time, his power is finally starting to show, and that should remain a constant moving forward. Don’t overlook the fact that, despite being an  absolute dead weight to a club in the average and steals categories, that Uggla is fourth at the second base position in homers, has as many RBI as Ian Kinsler and has scored more runs than Michael Young (42).

THIRD BASE
Chone Figgins: .183-1-14-21-9 in 262 ABs
What a disaster this position has been. David Wright, Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Zimmerman and Evan Longoria, the top-4 at the position coming into the year, have all missed extensive time with injury. It just gets worse from there as well as seemingly every player at the position has something wrong with them. As such, there really isn’t much to mine at the third base spot since most leagues have all these guys already rostered, so coming up with a name that you could buy on the cheap to help out was pretty difficult. I went off the board and listed Figgins who is almost certain to be dealt. If he is, there’s still a chance that he could be a productive performer in the second half – he can’t possibly have fallen this far so quickly, and he’s likely on waivers in your mixed league so you can pick him up for nothing.

SHORTSTOP
Jason Bartlett: .238-1-21-32-18 in 323 at-bats

Bartlett has maintained some value by swiping bags, but overall his work has been awful. Despite a career norm in BB/K (0.51), and what would be the second best line drive rate of his career (23 percent), Bartlett is undershooting his career average by .038 points partly because his BABIP is .280, a mark that is .037 points below his career level. If he were to maintain his current rate, he’d also post a six year low in the category. He has no power, and won’t drive in any runs, but he certainly seems like a strong candidate to boost his average, substantially, in the second half.

ALL-STAR GAME

Oh, and by the latest count it appears that 83 players have been named to the All-Star teams. That’s more than 10 percent of the players in the league. What a joke.

 By Ray Flowers

Buy or Sell – NL Version

New York City - Lower Manhattan photo © 2008 David Ohmer | more info (via: Wylio)

I’m always getting questions about what to do with certain players who are over/under performing, so today I’ll break it down for you by discussing the National League players I’m asked about all the time (to see my AL list, click on Buy or Sell – AL Version).

* Buy/Sell designations are based on a mixed league with 12 teams.

 

 

 

 

Pedro Alvarez: I’m telling you, this guy will be a 30-100 man at some point of his career. You can bank on it. Every scout in the world will tell you that Pedro has an elite power bat. Now there are concerns about his ability to keep his weight under control, whether his glove is good enough for third base, and if he will ever make enough contact to be more than a .270-ish hitter, but the power is an elite tool – period. People expect so much out of youngsters anymore. I mean, this guy has 242 at-bats at Triple-A and just 455 in the majors. Are we really going to label a guy a failure based on 700 at-bats against elite level competition? Two things. (1) Ramirez has 17 homers and 71 RBI in 455 at-bats with the Pirates. (2) He’s always been a slow starter. Don’t forget that he hit six bombs with 27 RBI over his last 28 games last year so it remains wise to be patient here.
BUY

Chris Carpenter: The sky is clearly falling here. I mean the guy has been awful with one victory and a 4.32 ERA through eight starts. Oh how some numbers can deceive. Last year Carpenter posted a 3.22 ERA with a xFIP of 3.70. This year his ERA is more than a run higher, but guess what, his xFIP is lower at 3.63 (xFIP tells you what a pitchers ERA should be based upon the events that he can control). In each of Carpenter’s  eight seasons with at least 175.1 innings pitched his BABIP has never been higher than .309, and he owns a career mark of .297. That would seem to suggest that his current .327 mark is a bit driven by bad luck, especially since his K/9 and BB/9 marks are pretty much spot on his career levels. If you can buy low do it – the only real concern is if he can take the ball every five games.
BUY

Kyle Lohse: In seven starts this year Lohse has allowed more than one earned run just three times, and five of the seven outings its been two or fewer earned runs. Clearly he is as locked in as he could possibly be. You already know I’m going to say he can’t keep it up, right? (1) He hasn’t thrown 120 innings since 2008. (2) His current K/9 rate of 4.99 would be his worst mark since 2005. (3) He’s the owner of a 2.74 career BB/9 mark. Currently he’s at 1.72. (4) His career HR/9 mark is 1.12. He’s halved that so far at 0.52. (5) His career left on base percentage is 69.9 percent. Currently it’s 79.0 percent. I could go on and on but here’s the gist of it – Lohse is performing, across the board, at rates he has never been able to sustain. His 2.24 ERA and 0.86 WHIP simply aren’t sustainable with his K/9 rate, and his lack of anything other than an average GB/FB rate of 1.19. He could continue to do this, it’s possible, but his skills and history (a decade of work) suggest now is the perfect time to sell.
SELL

Aramis Ramirez: He’s hitting .925 with a .352 OBP, numbers that are slightly better than his career marks of .282 and .340. There’s no issue there. The concern is obviously with his lack of pop since he has only one homer. Will that lack of power continue? It sure seems unlikely to. At 33 years of age his power stroke should still be there. While he’s not Adam Dunn, Ramirez is a pretty established power bat in his own right. In eight of his nine seasons in which he has accrued 450 or more at-bats Ramirez has gone deep 25 or more times (he had 18 homers in 522 at-bats in 2002). Ramirez currently has a 42.5 percent fly ball rate. Each of the past five years that mark has been 44 percent or higher. In addition to the dip in fly balls, he just isn’t converting them into bombs right now with a sickly 2.1 percent HR/F ratio. That will not continue since each of the last eight years he has produced a mark of at least 11.6 percent. I’m not giving up on Ramirez, and neither should you.
BUY

Jose Tabata: Mired in a hideous slump that has seen him got 9-for-67, Tabata’s hot start to the year is a distant memory at this point. Here’s what I see. First, Tabata has doubled his walk rate from last season helping to push his BB/K mark up to 0.74, a solid number (the big league average is usually around 0.50). I also see that he’s continued to hit the ball on the ground almost identically matching his 59.4 percent mark from last year at 60.2 percent. Given his game, that’s ideal. However, the issue is that he simply hasn’t been able to produce hits given his line drive rate of 9.7 percent. There’s no way that mark stays that low this season, no way. Last year Tabata produced a 16.1 percent mark, still slightly below average (19-20 percent), but that’s alright because his wheels will allow him to turn more grounders into hits than most. This is an ideal time to add a player with 30 steal wheels who has a reasonable chance of matching his career batting average (.283) over the next four months.
BUY

By Ray Flowers