2013 – Tout Wars

Tout Wars is one of the two exclusive fantasy baseball events each year (the other is LABR which I participated in earlier in March). Thanks to the powers that be I was invited to New York to put together a squad in Tout Wars for the second straight year. Below, you will see how my team came together, and I’ll give some thoughts about the entire weekend, which by the way, was a total blast (gotta be the greatest group of folks anyone can work with).

15 team mixed league auction.
14 hitters (2 C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, MI, CI, 5 OFs, UT)
nine pitchers (any mix of starters and relievers)
$260 salary cap

* This league is using OBP in place of batting average. It’s still a 5×5 league, just with that one change.

* Numbers in () are prices paid for each player.

* This league also has a shallow bench, only four spots. However, there is also an unlimited amount of DL spots beyond the four bench spots meaning a player on the DL does not take up a bench spot – i.e. players who start the year on the DL can be replaced with players off the waiver-wire.

C: John Jaso ($6), Tyler Flowers (4)
1B: Eric Hosmer (17)
2B: Howie Kendrick (12), Emilio Bonifacio (6), Daniel Murphy (Reserve)
3B: Martin Prado (14), Manny Machado (6), Pablo Sandoval (14), Alex Rodriguez (Res)
SS: Derek Jeter (7)
OF: Carlos Gonzalez (36), Bryce Harper (33), Domonic Brown (6), Jon Jay (4), Cameron Maybin (6), Billy Hamilton (Res)

STARTING PITCHERS: Brandon Morrow (13), Cliff Lee (23), Zack Greinke (14), Tim Hudson (4), Ryan Dempster (1), Edinson Volquez (Res)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Sergio Romo (16), Joel Hanrahan (11), Mike Adams (3), Jose Veras (4)

Jaso is a solid hitter, and in an OBP league he’s a lot better option than in “normal” leagues (he had an elite .394 OBP last season). Flowers an I are not related but can you blame me for drafting my namesake? He has power and his OBP should be about league average.

Hosmer has had a killer spring, and you know I expect a bounce back (see his Player Profile). Machado may not have a strong OBP, but the rest of his game should be very solid for the price. Sandoval has that elbow issue, so there is uncertainty. I could have used my money elsewhere (another arm perhaps, see below for more on that), but when I saw him sitting there for such a cheap price I had to take the plunge. A-Rod goes to the DL, and I’ll grab another player.

Kendrick will never get to the level some hoped for, but he’s always solid across the board (see his Player Profile). He does take a bit of a hit in an OBP league though. Murphy was a nice reserve round add. I’ll be able to place him on the DL and add another player (a shortstop), to fill out my lineup. Wait, how does Emilio qualify at second? In Tout there is a 15 game per position requirement, not 20. Emilio appeared in 15 games at second base last season. Prado also qualifies in the outfield, and by this point I think everyone knows I’m a big fan.

Jeter isn’t great, and it looks like he’ll miss the first week of the season, but for $7 who is gonna complain? Not I.

CarGo on my team everyone understands, but Harper? I like Harper, but I’m not predicting a top-10 season this year like others are. “So Ray, why is he on your team then?’ I tossed out Harper at $33 and then… crickets. I was very surprised that no one said $34. Did I miscalculate? Certainly seems that way, though it’s not an obnoxious bid (Stanton went for $34, the same Price as Justin Upton to make me feel a little better, but when other 20/20 types in the outfield went for much less – Choo $25, Cespedes $24, Heyward $31 – let’s just say I wasn’t overly excited). There is no doubt Harper has the talent to justify that bid, just wouldn’t have been my first choice. Brown has had a tremendous spring, and there aren’t any more talented outfielders that went for less than $6. Jay isn’t exciting to most, but he is a .300 career hitter who had a .373 OBP with 19 steals last season in 117 games played. Maybin will struggle in OBP, but his wrist seems healthy. There’s a 15/40 season lurking here. Hamilton was a total shot in the dark reserve add. Normally I wouldn’t have done that, but since I have two injured guys I can place on the DL, I figured I could add Hamilton at little risk.

Yes, that was me at 2 AM at Foley’s shooting a double shot of Jameson. Take that Kay Adams. That’s right, the Oracle doesn’t just drink fruity drinks (check out the shocked look on Kay’s face in this photo… that’s the Oracle on the left and Kyle Elfrink on the right). Well, I do most of the time…

I love Cliff Lee. He’s a top-5 option in my mind. He gave me six wins last year in Tout, but I’m doubling down on him this season. I might have paid a dollar or two more when compared to other similar arms, but I feel like I made that back when I got Greinke for just $14. Morrow for a dollar less has a lot of up as well. That’s a pretty strong trio in my mind. Add in veterans like Hudson and Dempster and that’s a solid core. I also felt really good about Volquez in the reserves. He had an ERA under three with a WHIP in the 1.20′s and darn near a K per inning in his home starts last season.

As usual, I like my pen. I snagged Adams with an early bid, and he’s a dominant arm when healthy. Romo might have gone for a dollar or two more than he should have, but I’ve long said he’s a top-10 reliever in baseball if he can stay healthy. Some are worried about the varied performance of Hanrahan in Spring. I’m not. Jose Veras is no great shakes but he’s been over 10 Ks per nine the past three years and he appears to be the Astros main option in the 9th.

Some final thoughts.

My team has a ton of speed but might be a bit thin on power. I’ll address that at some point on the trade market once I get clear on the steals.

My staff needs another arm. I’ll almost certainly add one in the first waiver period with one of my two DL spot openings (I will use the other spot to get a shortstop to help cover until Jeter returns).

I usually limp slowly into drafts, but I went a bit bigger than normal thanks to the Harper add. That was unfortunate too. This draft would have played perfectly into my hands if I done my normal start slow, wade into the water slowly thing. As it was, I spent big early on some folks and that meant in the middle rounds, when a lot of “my guys” were going for less than market value, I just didn’t have the cash to spend (this was particularly evident on the hill – Lincecum for $10, Gallardo $15, Zimmerman $13, Wilson $8). I really hope I don’t regret not having the cash to spend on Lincecum. Hell, if I had gotten that foursome for $46 I would have felt flipping fantastic.

Best Picks: Bonifacio/Maybin for $6 each, Greinke for $14.
Worst Pick: Harper for $33 (only because it wasn’t my plan, not cause I hate the player).

Click on the link to see the 2013 Mixed Tout results.

By Ray Flowers

2013 Livin’ The Fantasy Draft

And the fantasy baseball drafts just keep on coming… Kay Adams and I hosted the Livin’ the Fantasy Draft for SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM87). The league consisted of myself, Kay, Kyle Elfrink, two producers (Drew Phelps and Phil Backert), and six listeners (one was unable to make it). That means we had a shallow 11 team, mixed league draft that we took part in. I had the #2 selection in the draft, and here is how my team turned out.

C: Carlos Santana (7th round), Victor Martinez (8)
1B: Kevin Youkilis (19), Kendrys Morales (24)
2B: Rickie Weeks (9), Martin Prado (6)
3B: Ryan Zimmerman (4), Manny Machado (21)
SS: Jose Reyes (2)
OF: Ryan Braun (1), B.J. Upton (3), Shin-Soo Choo (5), Dexter Fowler (13), Cameron Maybin (23), Drew Stubbs (25), Michael Brantley (28)

STARTING PITCHERS: Yovani Gallardo (10), Mat Latos (11), Brandon Morrow (12), C.J. Wilson (15), Dan Haren (16), Tim Hudson (22), Edinson Volquez (26)

RELIEF PITCHERS: Joe Nathan (14), Joel Hanrahan (17), Kenley Jansen (18), Steve Cishek (20), Vinnie Pestano (27)

It’s a two catcher league, and with the two talents I saw sitting there in the 7th and 8th rounds I thought to myself what the heck, do something you normally don’t due and roster two potentially elite options at catcher.

First base is an area of weakness relative to the rest of my team. Still, I’m confident that my duo of Youkilis and Morales will be able to hold their own at the spot, even if I’m just treading water there.

Weeks fell in my eyes, so I was more than willing to dive into the pool in the 9th round. Injuries are always an issue, but per 162 games for his career here is Weeks line – .251-23-67-107-20. Yeah, I know right? Prado qualifies at OF, 3B, 2B and SS in this league. I know he shouldn’t, but you have to play to your leagues rules. He offers excellent cover up the middle, at the corner, and in the outfield. I love him as my middle infielder right now. Speaking of up the middle, Reyes is a strong contender to lead shortstops in fantasy value in 2013.

Zimmerman’s shoulder keeps passing all the tests this spring, and he seems well on his way to another traditionally impressive effort at the hot corner. Machado in the 21st was a shocking fall actually. Kyle Elfrink, my co-host on The Drive (5 PM EDT, Monday-Friday) pointed out something very interesting. Rookies like Wil Myers and Jurickson Profar are on everyone’s must draft list. A youngster like Machado, who is just as talented, simply isn’t because he played last year and only did so-so. The perception is that Myers/Profar are worth the risk this season but Machado is only blah. Folks, Machado is a dynamic talent who has a starting job with the Orioles. That should mean more than it does to some.

Braun is still my #1 guy, PED junk be damned. Upton is a great #2 outfielder. Choo is a great #3 outfielder. Fowler is a great #4 outfielder. Maybin/Stubbs/Brantley equals a great #5 outfielder.

On the hill I waited on starters, shocking I know, and yet again proved you can do well following that strategy. Gallardo and Latos are top-20 arms in my eyes, and Morrow is right on the edge of that as well. My 4th starter is Wilson, and I have a lot of faith in him rebounding this season (see his Player Profile). My fifth is Haren, and I have a lot of faith that he will rebound this season (see his Player Profile). My sixth starter is Tim Hudson, you know the guy who has averaged 16 victories with a 3.19 ERA and 1.16 WHIP the past three seasons. My seventh starting arm is Volquez who has a 200 K season in his back pocket, has filthy stuff, and pitches half his games in Petco Park.

In the pen, some strong arms as well. Nathan and Hanrahan are top-10 closer types, and Cishek is a strong 3rd closer. I also added Jansen, that guys arm is as good as any in baseball, and Pestano who is one hell of a hurler himself (he’s also potentially going to get some 9th inning work if Chris Perez isn’t 100 percent by opening day).

It’s an 11 team league, having one less team in the mix certainly opens up the player pool for sure, and who knows about injuries, but looking at this squad I really don’t think I have an obvious weakness.

Oh, and here are the results of an NL-only draft that we held on The Drive which you can hear Monday through Friday at 5 PM EDT on Sirius 210. XM87.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: September 11, 2012

(1) Aroldis Chapman dealing with shoulder fatigue.

(2) Lance Berkman’s season over, career too?

(3) Kyle Kendrick pitching like a star.

(4) Gio Gonzalez excellent in first season in Washington.

(5) Brandon Moss to make history?

(6) Cameron Maybin, Logan Forsythe hot for Padres.

(7) Wandy Rodriguez finally back on track.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: August22, 2012

(1) John Axford reclaims closer’s role for Brewers.

(2) Cameron Maybin finally heating up at the dish.

(3) Tim Lincecum shuts down Dodgers. Starting to look like Timmy of old?

(4) Garrett Jones streaking for Pirates. Streaking

(5) David Cooper – someone to keep an eye on in AL-only leagues.

(6) Nate McLouth – someone to keep an eye on in AL-only leagues.

(7) Brett Anderson returns, looks sharp for Athletics.

By Ray Flowers

Around the Horn: May30, 2012

(1) Andre Ethier making big push for his payday this offseason.

(2) Roy Halladay out for 6-8 weeks with shoulder injury. Is he done being an elite arm?

(3) Jered Weaver placed on DL with back issue. Believed to be minor.

(4) Roy Oswalt signs with Rangers, about four weeks away.

(5) Jonathan Sanchez still working his way back from biceps issue.

(7) Brandon McCarthy good to go Saturday for A’s.

(8) Injured outfielders close to returning -  Yoenis Cespedes, Cameron Maybin, Michael Morse, Desmond Jennings and Nick Markakis.

You can also follow my work over at Sulia.com where I randomly post some of my thoughts through the day.

By Ray Flowers

Player Profile: Ichiro Suzuki

One of the greatest runs in the history of baseball came to an end last season as Ichiro Suzuki failed to record 200-hits for the first time in his 11 year career. Is he washed up as a fantasy ace after one down season that saw him hit just .272?

Already 38 years old after a distinguished career in Japan, there are certainly concerns with Ichiro’s game heading into 2012. Let’s me start with the two biggest issues facing the venerable All-Star.

(1) Most obvious is Ichiro’s age. There simply no way anyone can put off Father Time forever, and it seemed like the old fella really dug his fingers into Ichiro last season.

(2) Ichiro’s performance suffered significantly last season. A career .326 hitter, Ichiro hit just .272 last season with only 184 hits ending Suzuki’s big league record of 10-straight 200-hit seasons.

With those two facts in place, Ichiro’s ADP is as low as it has ever been. Over at MockdraftCentral Ichiro is barely holding on to a top-30 spot in the outfield and a top-100 overall ranking. Given his struggles last season, does his current placement among outfielders make sense? Some thoughts.

Ichiro played 161 games last season, the 10th time in 11 years that he’s appeared in at least 155 games. The dude is a rock.

Ichiro scored 80 runs, just one run behind his average of 81 from 2009-10.

Ichiro knocked in 47 runs last season. Obviously that’s a terrible total, but it was his 4th straight season in the 40′s, so it was the same as usual for this lefty hitting slap hitter.

Ichiro may have hit much worse than ever before, it was his first season under .300, and his OBP fell from a previous career worst of .350 all the way down to .310 – which is below his career batting average. Still, would it surprise you to learn that he still stole 40 bases for the third time in four years despite being on base much less frequently than normal?

As for that average dip, given his style of hitting, it wouldn’t take much of a lost step to cause his average to fall. Still, I just mentioned how he was successful as always on the base paths, so a loss of speed isn’t solely to blame for the dropoff. Ichiro had a walk rate of 5.4 percent last year (career 6.2) and struck out at a 9.6 percent rate (career 9.3). Nothing changed there. His line drive rate was 19.1 percent, just below his 20.2 percent career rate. Again, not much to explain the nose dive his average underwent. It should be pointed out that he did produce a seven year high in his ground ball rate at 60 percent, and when you hit that many balls on the ground it’s pretty darn difficult to generate extra base hits (even when he did hit the ball in the air, his HR/F rate was a career worst). Ichiro, the owner of one of the more impressive BABIP marks of all-time (.351) failed to reach .316 for the first time in his career as his mark fell to .295. At his age it’s not a shock that his BABIP would start to dip, but after he posted a mark of at least .334 each of the previous five seasons his .295 mark last season really came a bit out of nowhere.

Let me ask you this. Which set of fantasy numbers would you prefer?

.272-5-47-80-40
.264-9-40-82-40

The first line belongs to Ichiro, the second to Cameron Maybin. According to ADP numbers, Maybin is being selected one pick ahead of Ichiro in the outfield, so clearly people are banking on an improvement from the younger but far less accomplished Padres outfielder (“far less accomplished” really isn’t even accurate. How about I throw the famous ‘he can’t hold his jock strap’ line out there). I’m not going to say that the majority of people are wrong in selecting Maybin over Ichiro, but it’s pretty interesting how far Ichiro has fallen at this point of his career isn’t it when a decade of excellence has him being taken off the board right behind a guy who has one full season in his major league career?

Ichiro, a leadoff man his entire career, is being asked to hit third in the order this year by the Mariners. Owner’s of one of the worst offenses in baseball, Ichiro should still be able to have success in the three hole. Conventional wisdom would have you believe that he will run a bit less but knock in more runs than he has in the recent past. I’m not so sure that he’s really going to curtail his running that much because so much of Ichiro’s game is being a mover and shaker on the base paths. Whatever the truth, Ichiro is to the point where excellence can no longer be expected. That doesn’t mean you should forget about him completely, he’s still capable of improving slightly upon last years effort (never doubt greatness), but he certainly is no longer someone you’ll want as a top option on your fantasy squad – not even close.

By Ray Flowers

Undervalued Performers for 2011

Photo by Debra Roby

Which player who is currently flying a bit under the radar has a chance to be a top-50 performer this season?

I asked some of the brightest minds in the industry. Here are their thoughts.

Ryan Boyer, Rotoworld.com
Twitter: @RyanPBoyerMLB
Derek Holland, LHP, Rangers
Top-50 might be stretching it a bit, but a guy I really like to take a big step forward this season is Derek Holland. The Rangers’ No. 2 prospect in 2009 in what was at the time an absolutely loaded farm system, Holland dealt with some shoulder inflammation last season, but when he was healthy, he struck out nearly a batter per inning for Texas and was simply dominant at Triple-A (1.87 ERA over 11 starts). The Rangers are looking for someone to pick up the slack with Cliff Lee gone, and I think a likely scenario is Holland being that guy and Neftali Feliz staying in the bullpen. This 24-year-old has the upside to be one of the better lefties in the AL in short order.

Jason Collette, BaseballProspectus.com and Rotowire.com
Twitter: @jasoncollette
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH, Toronto
Encarnacion has a breakout power year in limited playing time in 2010. Despite being in the league for what seems like forever, he is just 28 years old and now can focus mainly on his hitting as he is not going to be asked to do much in the field this year other than play some first base against the tough lefties (okay, maybe the not-so-tough lefties, too) that Adam Lind struggles against. Maybe this is more the fan in me than the analyst, but I like Encarnacion’s chances of hitting 30 home runs in 2011 more than I like Jose Bautista’s chance at 40. I have Edwin pegged as one of the few players to increase their homer totals by 10 or more from this past season as I think his plate skills, playing time, and the end of his defensive butchery at third base all converge into his true breakout season.

Patrick Daugherty, Rotoworld.com
Twitter: @pat3537
Gio Gonzalez, SP, A’s
Overshadowed by Trevor Cahill’s out-of-nowhere Cy Young run and Dallas Braden’s perfect game last season, it was easy not to notice that Gio Gonzalez notched a SO/9 of over seven and a half while posting improved peripherals across the board. Still just 25 and getting markedly better each year, don’t be surprised if he’s the Athletic that makes a serious run at the Cy Young this season – and ends up anchoring your fantasy pitching staff.

Cory Elfrink, SI.com contributor
Jason Bay, OF, Mets
From 2005-2009, Jason Bay averaged 31 home runs, 103 RBI, 101 runs, and 12 steals while batting .279. His first season hitting in Citi Field, much like David Wright’s first season there, was a disaster. Not only did he appear in just 95 games – largely due to a concussion – but even when he did suit up, he delivered production far below expectations. Heading into 2011, Bay is not exactly being ignored in drafts as his ADP is firmly in the top-150. However, he seems like a fallback option on everyone’s board. I would say there are less than 25 hitters in the game capable of producing what Bay averaged for the five-season stretch heading into last season. A player like Troy Tulowitzki plays a premium position, no doubt. He’s also going in the top-10, if not the top-5, of most drafts. Yet his projections are in line with Bay’s averages from 2005-09. In other words, don’t be surprised if Bay comfortably finishes among the top-50 fantasy players in 2011.

Kyle Elfrink, The Drive, SiriusXM Radio
Gordon Beckham, 2B, White Sox
In the second half of his second season, he posted a .285/.336/.459 slash line which was right in line with his 2009 season. He’s still only 24 and he finally gets to stick at one position (he was drafted as a shortstop, brought up as a third baseman, and handled second base duties last year). He should be charged with nothing but second base this year. His steals could hit double-digits, and if that happens you have a rarity at second base – a .280 hitter with double-digit homers, double-digit steals and an OPS of near .800. He’s a guy that you can get outside the top-175 with a chance at sniffing the top-50.

Ray Flowers, BaseballGuys.com
The Drive, SiriusXM Radio
Rotowire.com
Twitter: @baseballguys
Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres
A “post hype sleeper,” there was a point a few years ago that Maybin was on everyone’s lips as a “must have,” but those times have faded as his performance in the bigs has been poor to date. Still, Maybin has been highly effective at Triple-A the past two years (he has hit .325-7-62-65-13 in just 115 games at Triple-A), and it looks like he will be given every chance to play on a daily basis for the Padres. Given that opportunity, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he could evolve into a Mike Cameron type who could go 20/20, albeit with a mediocre average, as early as this season, and don’t forget that he is only 23 years old.

David Longnecker, KFFL.com
Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles
After Nick Markakis posted a line of .300/23/112 and stole 18 bases in 2007, he appeared to be on the brink of fantasy stardom as a multi-category stud. He’s yet to arrive there, but I expect Markakis to return to his former glory in 2011. He’s simply far too talented to post his best career season at the age of 23. Now 27 and under far less pressure to reproduce his former numbers and to produce due to a revamped lineup, Markakis is primed to be a top-50 fantasy player. It’s not too much to expect Markakis to produce 20 home runs, 100 RBI, 100 runs, 12 steals and an average north of .300 in 2011. Even if he falls short of that, he’s going to be a great bargain considering his ADP.

David Rogers, Frozenotes.com
Twitter: @Frozennotes
Nick Markakis, OF, Orioles
A personal favorite of mine, Markakis has a pretty quiet season last year swatting just 12 homers while driving in a mere 60 runs. However, though his stats weren’t overwhelming, he still maintained a solid .297 average. This season there’s a lot to get excited about concerning the Baltimore offense. Assuming injuries and current health concerns don’t flare up, the Orioles will feature a formidable lineup, top to bottom. The additions of Vladimir Guerrero, Derrek Lee, J.J. Hardy and Mark Reynolds should give Markakis a boost this season.

Seth Trachtman
Jesus Montero, C, Yankees
Plenty of people are talking about Montero this spring, especially after Francisco Cervelli’s injury, but few are expecting much of significance from him. However, Cervelli’s injury all but guarantees Montero will break camp with the major league club, and the Yankees will give their prized prospect playing time no matter where he resides. It also helps that Russell Martin hasn’t produced in two years, and Jorge Posada’s bat speed is precipitously slowing. Consider that Montero already has a full season of Triple-A under his belt, and against much more advanced competition at age 20 he hit .289-21-75 in 453 at-bats last season.  The only reason to send Montero down again is to work on his defense, but the Yankees have reportedly been thrilled with his progress after losing a few pounds. Not many catchers produce offensively this early in their careers, but even fewer do what he did at age 20 in the International League. Montero is currently being drafted among the lower tier of second catchers in mixed leagues, but he’s more than capable of being a top five catcher now — or better.

Charlie Wiegert, Godfatheroffantasysports.com
Grady Sizemore, OF Cleveland
After four consecutive 20-20 years, and a 30-30 year in 2008, Sizemore has been curtailed by injuries the last two seasons, making him an easy person to forget. The guy is only 28, and should be going into the prime of his career, which once made him a fantasy top-10 pick. Sizemore is working through his rehab program after undergoing microfracture surgery on his left knee in June, and it’s unlikely he’ll be ready for the start of the season, more reason most owners will ignore him. He went early in the 8th round of our recent FSTA Experts league draft to Roto Experts, a bit earlier than I expected. I was hoping to get him in the 10-11 round area, which would make his risk vs reward a better option. After 130 picks, he was worth taking in my opinion, but at the 100 pick mark, outfielders like Nick Markakis, Chris Young and Curtis Granderson were still available.

Editors Note: Charlie got his man when he took Grady Sizemore in a recent draft held amongst the former Fanball Crew.

K-BAD 2011: PART III

In Part III of my review of the K-BAD experts draft at KFFL, I’ll wrap things up by breaking down my final eight selections and then giving a quick review of the squad I assembled. Here are some links that are pertinent to the piece as well.

K-BAD HOMEPAGE

PART I – Selections 1-10
PART II - Selections 11-20.

* Note: All comments were written in real time meaning they were penned right after the choice was made (the draft is a “slow draft” type setup where people have two hours to make a selection as we are all squeezing in the draft during our busy work days).

Round 21-8: Alfonso Soriano, OF, Cubs
s a 5th outfielder, as long as he is healthy, Soriano should be fine. Looking at the available options, I just didn’t see many who could hit 25 homers while scoring/knocking in 90.

Round 22-5: Gavin Floyd, SP, White Sox
I almost pulled the trigger on Floyd in the 20th round, so I pretty much had to take him in the 22nd. People always seem to neglect Floyd who has been stable, and pretty darn good the past two years.

Round 23-8: Brandon League, RP, Mariners
I’m not at all convinced that David Aardsma will be healthy and/or effective (he’s likely to miss the start of the year coming back from hip surgery). I wrote about this situation in A Hip that Makes You Hop.

Round 24-5: Ryan Doumit, C, Pirates
Honestly, this is a total shot in the dark. He’s the only catcher left on the board who I think could go .270-15-60, though he’ll need a trade to get anywhere close to that. He could be the first player I dump.

Round 25-8: James Loney, 1B, Dodgers
Boring, but I needed a corner infield option, and I certainly didn’t want to take Chipper Jones. Loney has little upside, but he does have 268 RBI the last three years which is, shockingly, seven more than Paul Konerko.

Round 26-5: Alcides Escobar, SS, Brewers
I wanted to bolster my pitching staff, but there are a handful of starters and relievers still available who I could go with, so I backed up my weakest hitting position by adding this speedster (my other SS is Jason Bartlett).

Round 27-8: Ryan Madson, RP, Phillies
Best pitcher, skill wise, left amongst relievers. Still, I gave heavy consideration to Jake McGee who could close for Rays and Clay Hensley as a handcuff to my ealier selection of Leo Nunez.

Round 28-5: Cameron Maybin, OF, Padres
I wanted to add depth in the outfield with my last pick and also gave a thought to calling out Roger Bernadina, Alex Gordon or David DeJesus (though DD was taken the pick before me).

REPORT CARD

* This team has lots of speed. Pierre should push 50 steals, Upton should get 40, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see McCutchen go for at least 30. I’m also expecting 15 from guys like Utley, Braun, Bartlett and Zobrist. Barring injury, I should win this category.

* My average might be lacking a bit since I took Dunn and Reynolds. Still, they are about as powerful a 1B/3B combo as anyone could hope to have. Yadier Molina usually has a decent average versus other catchers, and Utley, Braun and Kendrick should hit .300 to keep me respectable here – I hope.

* The power of this club is strong. I should get at least 70 bombs from Dunn and Reynolds, and if I don’t get at least 60 from Braun and Utley I’d be surprised. Zobrist, Lee, Upton, McCutchen and Soriano should all also hit 20.

* On the hill, saves are a bit of a question. Soria is a star as my anchor, and Hanrahan was named the Pirates’ closer two days after I drafted him which certainly helps. If Nunez can hold on to his strikeout and ground ball gains from last season, I could have three solid closers. I also expect League to start off as the closer with Aardsma coming back from injury, and Madson is just one pitch away from an injury to Brad Lidge to being called on in the 9th inning for the Phillies.  Maybe this unit isn’t a bad as I thought.

* At the top Sabathia and Hanson are a dynamic 1-2 punch, and I’ll take Billingsley as a #3 in any league. If things come together for Nolasco he will be the best 4th SP in the league, and guys like Baker and Floyd give me a strong top-6. Still, I do regret going against my normal tradition of waiting on pitching. Even though I took two SPs in the first seven rounds I’m not convinced that my team is appreciably better than it would have been if I had waited until the 8th round to take my first hurler.

Every team has a weakness, but overall I really like the way this draft played out. I picked up a bunch of the players that I targeted, so if everyone stays healthy I should be in line for another top-3 finish… but there is a whole of baseball that has to be played before we’ll know for sure how I did.

By Ray Flowers

Vegas Baby, and the FSTA

I was in Vegas for a couple of days in order to attend the Fantasy Sports Trade Association event. While there we did a couple of our radio shows for Sirius/XM Fantasy Sports Radio (we can be heard daily from 5-8 PM EDT), and of course we mixed in some fun including random dancing, a few cocktails (maybe more appropriately a slew of them), and some general merriment. Between all of that I was able to participate in the annual FSTA Mixed League Draft which we were able to hold on air in its entirety (to listen to it again, or for the first time, tune in to Sirius147/XM211 Radio at the following times: Friday at 5pm and 11 PM Eastern, and Saturday and Sunday at 3PM and 11PM Eastern). As for the draft results, you can follow the link to The Sirius/XM FSTA Draft for all the picks taken in the 13 team, 29 round draft. Here is a review of the team that I was able to put together, with the help of the beautiful Kay Adams.

C: Carlos Ruiz, Yadier Molina
1B: Prince Fielder
2B: Brandon Phillips, Aaron Hill
3B: Aramis Ramirez, Jhonny Peralta
SS: Jimmy Rollins, Jason Bartlett
OF: Carl Crawford, Andrew McCutchen, Carlos Lee, Denard Span, Nate McLouth, Cameron Maybin, Roger Bernadina

SP: Yovanni Gallardo, Dan Haren, Jonathan Sanchez, Wandy Rodriguez, James Shields, Scott Baker, Carlos Zambrano

RP: Joakim Soria, Ryan Madson, Brandon League, Rich Harden, Kyle Farnsworth, Jake McGee

Here are some of my thoughts on the draft.

* I was very pleased to see Carl Crawford fall to us at #7 overall. There seemed to be about a 50/50 split between people at the conference over taking Crawford or Troy Tulowitzki in that spot.

* Some people questioned Rollins in the 3rd round, though I don’t see why there would be any doubt about him at that spot. I have him as the #3 shortstop on the board this year (see: Top-10 Shortstops for 2011).

* Overall I love the talent of of this club. Some have said the team might be short on power, and while I can’t say we have any chance to lead the league in homers, I think our hitting should be highly productive. In taking a general overview I think we have a shot at having four guys who could at least go 15/15 (Crawford, Rollins, McCutchen, Phillips), and that is some serious talent that doesn’t even include two others who could go 15/15 (Maybin and Bernadina) as well as another guy who has already done that before (McLouth). We were one pick from nabbing Ryan Howard in the third round to be our corner infield option or that power talk would have been completely removed (we ended up with Rollins).

* This draft just goes to show you that you don’t have to reach on catching. While neither of my guys will win the league for me, Ruiz (16th round) and Molina (17th) give me two of the more stable options in the game. In leagues that start two catchers knowing that you have two guys who should hit .280 with 50 RBI is a nice feeling.

* Things turned out pretty well with the starting pitchers. I waited a bit to take a starter, though with all of them flying off the board I did go earlier than I normally do with Gallardo in the 6th round. I then grabbed the ultra consistent Haren in the 8th meaning that through 10 rounds I had rostered: 1 1B, 2 2B (one for MI), 1 SS, 1 3B, 2 OF, 2 SP, 1 RP.

* As for relievers, that unit is short on saves as we sit here today. With the draft being done so early, it is January after all, there is just no way to know how certain situations are going to pan out. Therefore I did something I hardly ever do, and that is go for a closer within the first 10 picks. I took Joakim Soria in the 9th round knowing that he was one of about 15 guys that seemed to have the 9th locked down for his team. Given that he is a top-5 option in my mind, it was an easy call to take him in that spot. I grabbed League who could open the year as “the man” with David Aardsma coming back from injury for the Mainers, an truthfully I think he’s a better pitcher than Aardsma (remember the Mariners had been looking to move David prior to the injury). Ryan Madson is an injury to Brad Lidge away from the 9th, and he is the better pitcher at this point if you gauge each man in a head-to-head manner. Remember, roster skills over roll in the pen and nine times out of 10 you will come out ahead. And in my nod to fantasy football, I handcuffed my Rays’ relievers to one another taking the young guy (McGee) and the old one (Farnsworth). Hopefully one of them pans out and locks down the role.

This is a solid squad and one that should allow me to remain competitive this season, provided that (a) my players stay healthy, and (b) if my “I was down in 2010 but I’m really a better player than that” plan comes to fruition in 2011. You did pick up that strategy I employed right? Take a look at the guys who had down seasons last year that I think are primed for a strong comeback in 2011: Ramirez, Hill, Lee, Span, Shields, McLouth, Bartlett. Hopefully I didn’t out think myself.

Now, where is my waitress with those fruity drinks…

By Ray Flowers

Four in One

There are four main story lines I want to hit on today. Two involve players that were recently sent to new teams, while two others deal with the first awards to be handed out this season.

Rookie of the Year Results

I went on record making Buster Posey as my choice for NL Rookie of the Year and Austin Jackson as my AL choice (you can read my full arguments for both at the links to NL Rookie of the Year and AL Rookie of the Year). How accurate were my predictions?

In the NL my top-3 were Posey, Jason Heyward and Jaime Garcia – the exact same order as the official voting. The only oddity in the voting was that a voter left Posey and Heyward off their ballot meaning they didn’t put either in their top-3. That’s disgraceful. They should have their voting privilege revoked.

In the AL, I wasn’t a soothsayer. I predicted Austin Jackson, Neftali Feliz and John Jaso as the top-3. The actual vote went Feliz-Jackson-Danny Valencia (Jaso came in fifth, Wade Davis also finished ahead of him in 4th place). Again, I always favor the everyday player over the pitcher if there is any doubt, kind of like a tie on the bases goes to the runner.

Cameron Maybin a Padre

The Padres traded for ultra talented Cameron Maybin giving up two strong relievers in Edwin Mujica and Ryan Webb who will now call Florida home.

Mujica struck out more than a batter per inning this season with 72 Ks in 69.2 innings. He also didn’t walk anyone with only six walks on the year meaning his K/BB ratio was 12.00, a historic number (it was the 4th best number in the history of baseball for a guy who tossed at least 65 innings). He needs to cut down the homers though – he owns a 1.43 per nine mark. Webb allowed only one homer in 59 innings as he posted a 2.90 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP for the Padres in 2010. He is an extreme groundball hurler with an ultra impressive 3.68 GB/FB ratio in ’10, an if he keeps that up he is going to have a job for an awfully long time.

Maybin is an all-around athlete who scouts will tell you owns every physical skill needed to have success at the big league level. At the same time, the sports world is a results driven business, and to this point Maybin has been a disappointment. Through 168 major league games Maybin is hitting .246 with 13 homers, 45 RBI, 93 runs scored and 19 thefts . While that isn’t good, it’s not all far removed from the type of effort that new teammate Chase Headley offered in 2009 (.264-11-58-77-17). In addition, the 23 year old Maybin has hit .284 with 62 RBI, 65 runs and 13 steals in just 115 games at Triple-A. The question is, can he translate his talent into production at the big league level? I think that, despite going to the worst offensive park in baseball in San Diego, that Maybin has a legitimate shot to be the next Mike Cameron. He’ll post a decent average, with a good amount of pop, and enough speed to be interesting. I think he could go 20/20 in 2011, and honestly, if he plays every day and doesn’t go 15/15, I would be disappointed.

David DeJesus an Athletic

The Athletics picked up outfielder David DeJesus by sending pitchers Vin Mazzaro and Justin Marks to the Royals. Mazarro will be in the Royals rotation next season after going 6-8 with a 4.27 ERA and 1.45 WHIP over 122.1 innings with the A’s in 2010. Marks is a 22 year old who was taken in the third round of the 2009 Entry Draft. He had more than a K per inning at Single-A ball last season with 136 in 129.1 innings. His future is still a few years away from hitting.

DeJesus is a solid major league player who has more value in the real world than he does in fantasy. He is a good citizen, plays defense well, runs the bases well, and does a solid job of getting on base. In terms of numbers he owns a career slash line of .289/.360/.427, and per 162 games in his career he has posted an average fantasy line of .289-11-72-93-9. That isn’t over the top production by any means, but it marks him as a solid #5 outfielder in mixed leagues, and a solid #3 option in AL-only scenarios. I really like the guy, and it stands to reason that his production won’t change too much in Oakland. Just do yourself a favor and make sure you don’t draft him expecting him to match last years .318 average – it almost certainly will not be repeated.

By Ray Flowers